Devise military solutions to the Somali piracy irritant

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 22 Jun 2011 21:14

bajwa-ji, somalia is in a state of semi-anarchy from what i can figure out
doesn't bode well for structured engagement
the warlord option probably remains the best bet

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Jun 2011 21:21

Need to find some good warlords and guide them to take over before TSP gets into the act.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 22 Jun 2011 21:24

i think it might already be late in the day
al shabab makes the taliban look moderately enlightened...
we'll need a pincer movement between the christian nations of ethiopia and kenya to deal with them
i think unkil has been quietly on the case for some time

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 22 Jun 2011 21:29

Socotra makes it into BRF

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Jun 2011 21:32

Shiv, RajeshA and Lalmohan,
1) What is the case for India to act? IOW what Indian interests are affected if nothing is done and which ones are advanced if India acts?

2) How is this like earlier events? Have we seen this before?
3) What actions or options does India have?
4)What are the negatives of those options?
Or consequences can be good or bad?
5) We get to action plans for follow through.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 22 Jun 2011 21:35

the big strategic prize is dominance of IOR
perhaps shared with Unkil

the tactical prize is facilitation of indian and other shipping, lowering of costs, improvement of trade

china is caught in the middle, they need the pirates to be on side - so that their oil and trade flows unmolested, could be another reason to back the paquis to help control the jihadi fervour in the 'right direction'

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 22 Jun 2011 21:42

This is a good opportunity on this forum to thoroughly game this idea. I request mods to rename this thread "Pax Indica in the Horn of Africa" and consider moving it to burqa forum.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Jun 2011 21:47

No let the ideas be in open.
Its not Pax Indica but protecting the Indian Ocean region.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 22 Jun 2011 21:53

ramana wrote:No let the ideas be in open.
Its not Pax Indica but protecting the Indian Ocean region.

I don't see the two as being distinct enough.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 22 Jun 2011 22:18

as a friendly, benign, status-quo power, we should seek international consensus amongst our friends and allies to take the lead role, we may need some boundary marking hand shakes with unkil

and

some two-way-taquiya with the dragon w.r.t. securing trade flows - which is in both of our interests

establishing peace and security means - no pirate can operate with impunity on the open seas (outside somalian territorial waters)

we need kenya, tanzania and oman at the very least on side, iran too has a beneficial role to play

(with every sentence i write on this another penny drops that the paquis are up to their gills in this imbroglio... for both financial gain and strategic spoiler reasons)

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Jun 2011 22:34

No truer words spoken Lalmohan. However you are coming up with solutions while folks dont recognise there is a problem.

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 22 Jun 2011 22:48

The primary Indian interest which would receive a boost is an indigenisation drive cycle of military hardware, especially for IN & IAF. More platforms will get inducted and commissioned in a shorter time-span than if India did nothing at all, consequently there would be more frequent maintenance runs and upgrades, all of which speeds up the learning curve. We need to subject the indigenisation drive to a pressure situation akin to a war footing, something that has not happened with the IN atleast in the 21st century. The pirate situation is an apt target for such an exercise.

I would even advocate Philip's long standing suggestion of basing a few moth-balled Canberra bombers, this time on Socotra instead of the mainland, once airstrips and runways have been constructed, although maintenance costs would be high. It would be like starting from scratch after CARNIC, we have the luxury of time to do it, provided we set up shop there first.

I am not sure if the terminology of "base" and "mainland" are extensively used in Indian or Indian military context, these are words which would make their entry once we start operations in the Horn. There is piskological element which comes along with usage of these terms which I'll go into later.

India also has trade agreements with Malawi to the south, incidentally deals with yellow-cake extraction as well. Shipping of this ore would need a security trail which crosses the entire pirate-infested area.

Taking on the pirates would be the first step in consolidating the western IOR flank, even islands like Reunion islands can be developed into research stations under the garb of JV's with the French. Subsequently, the eastern IOR will need to be consolidated before other Sittwe's and Lombok's can come up.

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 23 Jun 2011 13:53

There is great potential for Indian firms to build ore processing facilities on the coasts of Tanzania and Malagasy Republic to process minerals extracted from Malawi and in the future, from south-western Africa. A pre-requisite for this would be to get rid of the piracy problem so that India can engage the African Union better. Africa is also largely unexplored domain in the field of renewable energy such as geothermal or wind power.

The relationship will enter a blossoming phase when the current oil-producing states in ME run out of oil and will need Indian assistance and know-how with nuclear power.

Purush · Post by **Purush** » 23 Jun 2011 13:55

Don't mean to sound offensive, but according to some people I met (fathers of friends) who worked in Somalia under a UN agri assistance program in the '70s/80s, Somalis are 399% pacquis in their mentality and behavior. Supposedly extremely medieval/clannish in their thought process and extremely dishonest as a group..won't hesitate to backstab anyone for any reason. No honor at all. Engaging with them directly may not be such a good idea.

The Socotra base sounds like a superb idea indeed; several benefits and hardly any drawbacks by the looks of it.

BTW, one senior BRF Maulana was in Somalia for a while; I think he might have very useful input about the mindset of the people there.

PS: Mmd Farah Aideed's son is/was a US citizen IIRC; he served in the Marine Corps.
And again, IIRC, Aideed's cousin used to live in Kerala. I remember my mom reading out some article from a malayalam newspaper around the time the BHD incident took place.

UBanerjee · Post by **UBanerjee** » 23 Jun 2011 14:14

Purush wrote: PS: Mmd Farah Aideed's son is/was a US citizen IIRC; he served in the Marine Corps.
And again, IIRC, Aideed's cousin used to live in Kerala. I remember my mom reading out some article from a malayalam newspaper around the time the BHD incident took place.

I recently watched "True Story of Black Hawk Down" documentary which had info on the son (Hussein Mohammed Farrah). It was quite strange actually that he volunteered for the Marine Corps and even went to Somalia serving with them, when the US had put a bounty on his father's head and were actively trying to take him down. Later on of course blood told and he went back and quite fully his father's son when it came to becoming warlord. IIRC he was finally marginalized only a few years back.

As for pakiness of the Somalis, as you point out they share the similar "tribal above all" clannishness which marks so much of Africa and Central Asia, to the nth degree. Honestly, the concept of "nation-state" is completely alien to the entire region and has been imposed by imperial diktat from above. There needs to be a solution which is tailored to the local environment- exactly what the Americans are learning at great cost in Afghanistan.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 23 Jun 2011 14:25

ramana wrote:Shiv, RajeshA and Lalmohan,
1) What is the case for India to act? IOW what Indian interests are affected if nothing is done and which ones are advanced if India acts?

2) How is this like earlier events? Have we seen this before?
3) What actions or options does India have?
4)What are the negatives of those options?
Or consequences can be good or bad?
5) We get to action plans for follow through.

Ramana thee are some of the questions that arose in my mind although not as well classified as you have done. I don't have too many answers in my mind.

I personally think a base in Somalia obtained by force is pointless. Like a base in hell.

But I also think Socotra Island may not work. Socotra belongs to Yemen and Yemen is also a failed state and part of the problem. It occurred to me after looking at the "attacks" map that a huge number of attempts and actual piracy have occurred on the coast next to Yemen. Yemen seems to be having some economic loss from this and has an anti-piracy policy in place. But why has Socotra not been made into a naval base by anyone? Is there no natural harbor there?

Here is one ref about Socotra
http://www.socotraisland.org/intro/overview.html

From June to September the island is accessible only by plane, because of exceedingly strong monsoon winds, and access by sea is virtually impossible due to high seas and strong winds all around the island. During this time, fishing is impossible and many people move from the northern coast to the mountains to escape the winds, and to harvest their date palms.

Perhaps a good safe base in friendly territory like Mauritius or Tanzania may give India better control over the IOR

There is so much shipping traffic in the Gulf of Aden that every country in the world has a stake in stopping piracy, not just india. India need not take it upon herself to solve the Somalia problem. At least that is what it seems like ot me now with the information I have.

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 23 Jun 2011 14:53

shiv wrote:
But I also think Socotra Island may not work. Socotra belongs to Yemen and Yemen is also a failed state and part of the problem. It occurred to me after looking at the "attacks" map that a huge number of attempts and actual piracy have occurred on the coast next to Yemen. Yemen seems to be having some economic loss from this and has an anti-piracy policy in place. But why has Socotra not been made into a naval base by anyone? Is there no natural harbor there?

Do you think that it would be a fruitless exercise for India to negotiate for a 40-50 year Socotra lease with Yemen, the primary reason being Yemen is a failed state?

IMO, it is India's good fortune that nobody has made Socotra into a naval/naval air-arm base by any other player. So it is high time that India capitalises on the same.

Regarding the 3 months of isolation due to Monsoon winds, I am sure IN has more than enough competence and experience dealing with the same, it would be an issue if we were talking about foreign navies here but we are not.

Also, it shouldnt be a problem constructing an artificial harbor once the lease has been granted, so the lack of a natural harbor shouldnt be a barrier.

There is so much shipping traffic in the Gulf of Aden that every country in the world has a stake in stopping piracy, not just india. India need not take it upon herself to solve the Somalia problem. At least that is what it seems like ot me now with the information I have.

I beg to disagree saar. India will only be considered a forceful and assertive IOR player if it takes on the pirates. If there is a Paki angle to the piracy problem, demolishing piracy will only hasten the demise of Terroristan.

Purush · Post by **Purush** » 23 Jun 2011 14:59

^ yeah, indeed it looks like weather is the deal killer for Socotra

The south coast seems to be better off, but still, atleast for 3+ months in a year, access will be poor; probably not a good situation for a critical military base.

http://www.socotraislandadventure.com/S ... eather.htm

There are two annual monsoons: the south-west monsoon, which kicks up high seas around the island from early June to early October (this monsoon occasionally brings heavy rains in June), has created a physical barrier to access by sea since the earliest times. These intercontinental stratospheric winds blow from Africa towards the Himalaya mountains, bringing the wet to India. But as they pass over Socotra they are caught by the nearly 5000 ft. Hagghier mountains and dragged fiercely down over the northern coast.The wind blows on the north coast, non-stop, day and night, for three months at approximately 90 kilometers per hour with some gusts at 180 kph, in the area of Hadibo, between Howlaf and Mori. The north-east monsoon from April to May delivers a smaller amount of precipitation. The annual rainfall varies between 130 to 170 mm/hour. Even during the calmer months sea landings may still be difficult due to a combination of logistical problems, including the absence of adequate harbor facilities. But in 1999, a new airstrip was built (the longest in the Yemen) facing into the monsoon winds, allowing the Boeing planes the ability to land all year round. So as tourists you can come to Socotra at any time, depending on what you want to experience.

June/July/ August:

These are the very windy months on the north coast especially. The south coast is fairly calm at the same time. The winds blow in Hadibo day and night for three months at about 80 kph, only slacking off most days for an hour or two in the afternoon to perhaps 60kph. Gusts have been recorded at the port area, Howlaf, at 180kph. These winds are the base of the big inter-continental winds that blow at this time of the year from the high pressure over Africa to the low pressure over the Himalayas, bringing the monsoon to the Indian sub-continent. The tops of the mountains catch these winds and pull them down over the north coast of Socotra. Schools close, and fishing stops, except for a couple of places such as Deleisha, but all round the island fishing is limited by the strong ocean currents at this time of the year. At this time the temperature drops by about 5 degrees centigrade, but it is not really a time for normal tourism except for surfing. The weather still calmer in the middle of the island and the south, so it is possible to make tours on the other side of the island (the southern west side). There are no rains accompanying these winds. The Boeing aircraft land and take off safely throughout this period, because the airstrip is straight up and down the wind direction allowing planes land and take off straight into the wind.

Also, just for general info, here's the long SSC photo thread on Somalia. Confirms what is well known- it's an impoverished and backward failed state...
Aside from Mogadishu, a city called harbeysa, up in the north-west seems to be the only relatively 'decent' looking place.
http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1147271

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 23 Jun 2011 15:26

Klaus wrote:
Regarding the 3 months of isolation due to Monsoon winds, I am sure IN has more than enough competence and experience dealing with the same, it would be an issue if we were talking about foreign navies here but we are not.

Also, it shouldnt be a problem constructing an artificial harbor once the lease has been granted, so the lack of a natural harbor shouldnt be a barrier.

Klausji do you have any special expertise and knowledge in this regard or is this guesswork? I am guessing that what you say is not possible - or at least not practicable easily. 20 of those 50 years can go in building that harbor. Natural harbors can get going in two years. The word "harbor" means shelter or refuge. Socotra has no natural shelter or refuge for ships. It can be built but are you aware of the scale and timelines of engineering to do that in a place like Socotra?

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 23 Jun 2011 16:10

Shiv ji, most of the sparse literature on Socotra just talk about the era of landing with sail ships and dhows. The most accurate study and survey was carried out by two Indian Navy lieutenants in 1834, even that work is incomplete as it concludes that there is no natural harbor present but does not give much details about the hydrography. So, basing of surface naval assets may not even move beyond discussion phase.

In fact, I am for developing a listening post and a few airfields initially, also the island may be excellent for a submarine base, similar to PRC's Sanya, IN needs to conduct a bathymetric study. The coast has a few limestone formations, which are suitable for hiding the submarines from satellites, these need to undergo some construction and reinforcements.

IOW, I am advocating that IN re-take the task from 1834 and take it forward.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 23 Jun 2011 16:29

i am sure that unkil would have looked into it recently

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 23 Jun 2011 18:23

Yemen is problematic now. Whereas we had talked of trying for a base years ago on this forum. If the base was already there, it would now have had actually a stabilizing impact on the country too. But now it is really problematic. Any negotiation with any unstable group now would lead to complications later if that group fails to be in power.

On the other hand, some degree of retribution would be needed to ward off pirate attacks on Indian vessels. But once such a retributory move is started, it cannot stop until it has wiped out all resistance, which means in fact bulldozing the country's existing polity. India is not that confident yet. What about pressurizing OAU and KSA to ensure that Somalia's Islamic power-brokers ensure in turn that piracy stops? If they cannot give that undertaking and produce results, the OAU and KSA should be bound to participate in "cleaning" up the place with an Indian expeditionary force.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 23 Jun 2011 19:26

Indian Interests viz-a-viz Somali Piracy

ramana wrote:Shiv, RajeshA and Lalmohan,
1) What is the case for India to act? IOW what Indian interests are affected if nothing is done and which ones are advanced if India acts?

2) How is this like earlier events? Have we seen this before?
3) What actions or options does India have?
4)What are the negatives of those options?
Or consequences can be good or bad?
5) We get to action plans for follow through.

ramana garu,

before venturing into a response, first a little diversion into the context of the question, so here's my take on the national interests.

Everybody defines India's national interests differently: some may define it differently on the basis of ideological tilt of India; some differ in drawing India's Near Abroad; some differ on the depth of Indian cultural pervasiveness in our Near Abroad; some differ on the route to India's growth, and hence on the strategy; some may be for status-quo, while others may be on the other extreme in favor of muscular expansion: etc.

There are many different visions for India out there.

So before assessing how some issue in the world impacts our national interest, one would have to agree on some common vision for India as well as some understanding on what India's strategies should be for getting us there.

----------

Our interest in the whole Somalia affair can be looked from different perspectives:

We are only interested in seeing to it that Indian trade through those sea lanes gets through safely without any pirate attacks or hijackings.
We are interested in actively ensuring a world perception that Indian policing of the Indian Ocean is imperative for security of the shipping lanes, thus furthering the impression that Indian Ocean is the preserve of India.
We are interested in denying other powers, read PRC, etc. an excuse like Somali piracy to increase its naval footprint in the Indian Ocean.
We are interested in not having other regional powers, read KSA, Iran, Pakistan develop their own navies as a response to Somali piracy, for that would give Indian Navy legitimate (regional) competition in the Indian Ocean.
We are interested in not giving Pakistanis another opportunity to milk the international community including India, this time using piracy in the Indian Ocean rather than Jihadi Terrorism breeding in its area of domination.
We are interested in expanding Indian sphere of influence and indeed Indian sphere of dominance over the Indian Ocean Rim by changing hard facts on the ground, and not simply enhanced activity over a certain period of time.
We are interested in acquiring a higher diplomatic leverage in the capitals of the world powers, by making common cause with on the issue of Somali piracy.

So in most cases, we see that Somali piracy can be both an opportunity and a liability. Depending on our vision, we would by mining this opportunity differently.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 23 Jun 2011 20:00

All I am asking is which interests drive us to take action? Dont have to be all the interests or none. Yes due to diverse and fractured nature of Indian polticial society there will be diverse interests.
Some religious extremists will see co-religionists in the pirates and will want India not to take any action. That has to weighed against other compelling interests.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 23 Jun 2011 20:05

i think the core issue is hindrance of indian maritime trade and danger to indian citizens on the high seas - one cannot fail to agree that they need to be safeguarded. that is the minimal stance on which we must build (internally and externally - where it will taken as a given)

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 23 Jun 2011 20:26

Control over the Indian ocean where we are able to stop others' shipping is only one aspect of control. Equally, if not more important is to keep lanes open and prevent any other powerful navies or entities like pirates supported by failed states from putting our own shipping at risk.

Big naval bases in unfriendly territory will need more sea support and a constant watching of one's back in the port. A base in a friendly country is preferable. I was wondering about Tanzania. It also has good rail and road links with other African countries

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 23 Jun 2011 20:36

the sea problems apply to dhows and tramp steamers only, not to powerful naval ships or regular panamax/suezmax type cargo ships. these puppies sail routinely through very severe conditions and have the meat in engine power to back their size.

powers playing in that area have other options like aden and djibouti so they havent paid heed to this desolate island...but it can be useful for us to establish a red sea & western IOR flotilla there, kind of like the french stationing frigates in IOR.

Surveillance a/c like CG dornier could also operate from there.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 23 Jun 2011 20:43

Singha wrote:the sea problems apply to dhows and tramp steamers only, not to powerful naval ships or regular panamax/suezmax type cargo ships. these puppies sail routinely through very severe conditions and have the meat in engine power to back their size.

powers playing in that area have other options like aden and djibouti so they havent paid heed to this desolate island...but it can be useful for us to establish a red sea & western IOR flotilla there, kind of like the french stationing frigates in IOR.

Surveillance a/c like CG dornier could also operate from there.

Heavy seas are fine in mid ocean. But heavy seas near land - i.e at the port means shipwreck. A good port must offer protection so the ship is not tossing and rolling while stuff is loaded on or off. And if ships can't come for 3 months fuel for planes must be brought in by air.

The winds are 90 kmph gusting to 160 kmph. That should whip up the waves a bit. Anyone with a map will realise that Socotra is a great place for a port and it sits astride one of the most important sea lanes of the world. There has to be a compelling reason why nobody has built a port there.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 23 Jun 2011 21:31

The Pakistani-Somali Nexus

The issue of Somali piracy goes a bit deeper than the current level of threat to Indian shipping and Indian citizens.

What have we seen recently?

We have seen how the Pakistanis in fact with much fanfare have executed a hostage negotiation with the Somali pirates. I read on BRF of reports of some Pakistanis providing Somali pirates with weapons etc. So what does all this portend.

Pakistan's business model is to mediate between Muslim "rebels" (read terrorists, jihadis, pirates, insurgents, secessionists, organized criminals, extremists, etc.) and non-Muslim powers (read West, PRC, even Russia) and to exact some commission, while continuing to build up the power of the Muslim "rebels" to challenge non-Muslim powers. So basically the business model is duplicity. Where ever Pakistan is required/requested to make its regular army available for the task at hand, the commission morphs into multi-billion dollar support, as well as provision of military supplies, depending on the capacities of the non-Muslim power.

Whatever the Pakistanis did in Afghanistan and its own jihad factories, it is now trying to redo it in Gulf of Aden, i.e. create a Muslim force able to challenge world-order, i.e. challenge non-Muslim powers as well as suck more blood from even established Muslim powers like KSA.

Pakistan would try to arm Somali pirates in great numbers, with ever more sophisticated arms, and in exchange would get more leverage with the Somali pirates. Whenever there is a hijacking of ships, Pakistan would be asked to mediate with the Somalis, due to "Pakistan's better intelligence assets in Somalia", and in return Pakistan would take a good part of the ransom money. Pakistanis win, Somalis win.

One way of looking at it would be how Pakistan uses the same model that PRC uses with North Korea. Pakistan would get more countries lining up to Pakistan to help them with securing their trade through the shipping lanes, and Pakistan can bathe in the glow of respectability and support to the state.

Instead of USA putting pressure on Kiyanis to march into North Waziristan, one would have the West requesting Ansar Burney's to get their sailors released. A lot less risky model.

As India would be asked upon to curb Somali piracy in the Indian Ocean, Indians would be facing well-armed Somali pirates, armed with all sorts of weapons, mines, electronics, what not. So yes, Indians would be losing lives in the line of duty, while Pakistan can live out its moments of glee. Indians will get nothing, except in the few cases where we make losses, an additional loss of face for losing out a battle with pirates, where as Pakistanis would be able to make money from Somali piracy.

Pakistan would also have established another Muslim fighting force in a region we consider our primary domain - the Indian Ocean, to challenge us, and all that at a very low cost. Since Indians would be involved in fighting Somalis, i.e. Muslims, Pakistan would be able to spread anti-Indian hate over the much wider Muslim world. Indians would in fact be creating for ourselves another mortal enemy.

Moreover Pakistanis can use the Somali Piracy Network to move jihadis from Asia to Africa giving jihadis a much bigger play ground.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 23 Jun 2011 21:34

ramana wrote:All I am asking is which interests drive us to take action? Dont have to be all the interests or none. Yes due to diverse and fractured nature of Indian polticial society there will be diverse interests.
Some religious extremists will see co-religionists in the pirates and will want India not to take any action. That has to weighed against other compelling interests.

ramana garu,

your question was completely valid and important. I was just trying to analyze its various aspects.

I'll try to go into the other questions as well.

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 23 Jun 2011 21:49

The probable reasons why Socotra has been by-passed so far: 1. Very little availability of food and freshwater on the island 2. Alien ecosystem which might take a lot of getting used to, I remember tourists speaking of a malaria epidemic 3. The shore, except for the southern side, is full of rocky outcrops. The other islands of the archipelago also have dangerous reefs and shipwrecks in waters which would be shallow for naval vessels, so navigation could be a bit of a hairy task.

However, there is scope for massive dredging and land reclamation projects to make Socotra an ideal port or naval base. India does have some experience in CARNIC, this would be a bigger challenge. We have carried out extensive land reclamation projects in Mumbai, so there is nothing novel here.

Also, China did put a lot of effort behind Sanya, which is also quite close to international shipping lanes and Vietnam. They also had examples from the Hong Kong airport island construction, which also made use of land reclamation.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 23 Jun 2011 21:55

The Pakistani-Somali Nexus

Basically Pakistan could be preparing a trap for India in the Gulf of Aden, having learned from its successful trap it created for USA in Afghanistan.

Should India start to fight off Somali piracy full-time, we will only be increasing anti-India feelings in the Horn of Africa, just the way USA has become the primary object of hate among the Pushtuns and the other Pakistanis. Once USA dedicated its forces to Afghanistan, it became difficult for USA to extricate itself from Afghanistan without losing face, and in fact the irony of it being, that USA is now dependent on Pakistan to help it save face in Afghanistan. Similarly once India takes on the fight against the Somali pirates as a dedicated mission to "eradicate piracy", India would not be allowed to retreat as Indian ships would be marked for "special" treatment by the Somalis.

So we should not allow ourselves to walk into this trap with eyes closed. But neither should India allow the Pakistani-Somali Nexus to take shape. So what to do?

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 23 Jun 2011 22:38

^^ Increase patrols, take pak involvement more seriously (diplomatically) and hit pak covertly.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 23 Jun 2011 23:43

The Pakistani-Somali Nexus

RajeshA wrote:So we should not allow ourselves to walk into this trap with eyes closed. But neither should India allow the Pakistani-Somali Nexus to take shape. So what to do?

shyamd wrote: Increase patrols, take pak involvement more seriously (diplomatically) and hit pak covertly.

What we can do against such a nexus would require setting up a whole system of alliances in the Horn of Africa, and that too needs to be given ample thought. Should that be possible, then it would allow India sufficient options to hit Pakistan and turn the game on them.

We see that the Pushtuns in Afghanistan-FATA may themselves be turning against the Pakistanis, seeing how they have been taken for a ride. However in the Horn of Africa, the situation may not be such that the Somalis would turn themselves against Pakistanis.

So some policies we could adopt to hit at Pakistanis:

Whenever the Pakis show themselves successful in mediating the release of hostages taken by Somali pirates, we should declare that group of Somali pirates "wajib ul-qatl", because it would be apparent, that Pakistanis would be providing the group with weapons, and the Pakistanis would have developed sufficient rapport with the group. These pirates should be hunted down.
We should also put some head price on Pakistanis. Every time some Somali manages to capture some Pakistani in Somalia or in Somali waters, he should be captured or killed. It is obvious that the Pakistanis involved there are up to no good. Any group who brings a Pakistani or his head to us should get some reward.
Any boat or ship which is owned by Pakistani, captained by Pakistani or registered with Pakistan should itself be hijacked. If need be, India can let such information to leak out to pirate groups not aligned with Pakistanis. If Pakistani themselves get attacked, their ships and crewmen hijacked, and they are not successful in winning their release, they would lose credibility in the world as successful mediators, including in cases when the hostages may be taken in by Pakistanis' Somali associates. If need be, Indians can themselves ensure by paying the pirates that the Pakistanis taken hostage be done with, and not be released.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 24 Jun 2011 00:04

Indian Base in Socotra

Facts About Socotra - strangefacts

Measuring 1,200 square miles, Socotra (also Suqutra) Island is located in the Arabian Sea, about 500 miles from Aden and less than 200 miles from Somalia
The sparsely populated island has a mountainous interior and most of its population engages in farming or fishing; the most striking feature of this isolated place is its biodiversity and the great number of unique flora and fauna
The ruler of the Mahra Sultanate of Qishn and Socotra resided there under British rule during much of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries
The island became a part of South Yemen in 1967 and, with Yemeni unification in 1990, it became a part of the Republic of Yemen (ROY)
Given its location near the sea lanes, Socotra was long thought to be of strategic value by Western imperial powers
During the latter half of the Cold War, South Yemen allowed the Soviet Union to maintain a submarine base and other military facilities there; Russia continues to maintain a modest naval presence
During the late 1990s there were rumors about a deal between the United States and the ROY over military facilities on the island, but the complicated, if not strained, relations between the two countries, beginning with the bombing of the U.S.S. Cole in Aden in 2000, squelched this talk
The considerable activities regarding Socotra now focus on its development as a tourist destination featuring and protecting its unique biodiversity
Socotra has been described as one of the most alien-looking place on Earth, and it’s not hard to see why
It is very isolated with a harsh, dry climate and as a result a third of its plant-life is found nowhere else, including the famous Dragon’s Blood Tree, a very-unnatural looking umbrella-shaped tree which produces red sap
There are also a large number of birds, spiders and other animals native to the island, and coral reefs around it which similarly have a large number of endemic (i.e. only found there) species
Socotra is considered the most biodiverse place in the Arabian sea, and is a World Heritage Site
There was initially an Oldoway (or Oldowan) culture in Socotra. Oldoway stone tools were found in the area around Hadibo by V.A. Zhukov, a member of the Russian Complex Expedition in 2008
Socotra is part of the Republic of Yemen. It has long been a part of the 'Adan Governorate, but in 2004 it became attached to the Hadhramaut Governorate, which is much closer to the island than 'Adan (although the closest governorate would be Al Mahrah)
A local tradition holds that the inhabitants were converted to Christianity by Thomas in AD 52. In the 10th century, the Arab geographer Abu Mohammed Al-Hassan Al-Hamdani stated that in his time most of the inhabitants were Christians
In 1507, a fleet commanded by Tristão da Cunha with Afonso de Albuquerque landed an occupying force at the then capital of Suq, their objective was a Portuguese base to stop Arab commerce from the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean, and to liberate the presumed friendly Christians from Islamic rule
Here they started to build a fortress
However, they were not welcomed as enthusiastically as they had expected and abandoned the island four years later. The island was also come across by Somali sailors
Socotra is one of the most isolated landforms on Earth of continental origin (i.e. not of volcanic origin)
The archipelago was once part of the supercontinent of Gondwana and detached during the Miocene, in the same set of rifting events that opened the Gulf of Aden to its northwest
The main island has three geographical terrains: the narrow coastal plains, a limestone plateau permeated with karstic caves and the Haghier Mountains
The mountains of Socotra rise to 5000 feet (1,524 m). The island is a little over 80 miles (128.7 km) long east to west and typically 18–22 mi (29–35.4 ) north to south

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 24 Jun 2011 00:45

Dawood has major ops in Mombasa - which incidentally is where his son is getting married? and also where some level of financing/laundering ops for the somali's occur. Look into this too - he may be a conduit/profiting from funding/arming militia there and supporting ISI op to undermine INdian shipping routes.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 24 Jun 2011 01:24

Indian Base in Socotra

There are three routes to gaining control over Socotra.

As and when Yemen descends into anarchy itself, as seems possible looking at the Al Qaeda presence there; the Shia-Sunni rift, and hence the Saudi-Iranian proxy war taking place there; and then Yemen fast losing all revenues from Oil due to depletion; then in order to fight Al Qaeda, Somali Piracy, Al Shabaab in Somalia, UNSC could confiscate Socotra and allow India to build a base there, should India show interest to jump into chaos.
As Yemen loses political cohesion, we can negotiate with a weak government in Yemen to give us Socotra, either to fully transfer the island to our sovereignty or to give it on a lease to us. They may accede in exchange for political, military and financial support against political rivals or rival tribes.
As Yemenese "federation" becomes looser, India could try dealing with the Hadhramaut Governorate itself, under whose jurisdiction Socotra Island falls.
{Added Later} Next time there is some war brewing between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and Saudis want Indian support or Indian neutrality, then Socotra can be the price for it, otherwise we could help Iran.

The people of Hadhramaut are mostly Sunni. Pity one cannot use the Shia-Sunni rivalry here, as the Shia insurgency is mostly in Northwest of Yemen, whereas Hadhramaut is a big province somewhat east of of center. We would have to look for some other political play. Before 1930s there was a lot of tribal rivalry in Hadhramaut when the British helped in making peace there, for they needed the region to be stable. There is a book on that.

The people of Hadhramaut were also the ones who traveled far and wide to India, Indonesia and Malaysia to bring the word of Allah there. In fact in India itself there is a big community of Hadhramis called the Chaush.

Quoting Wikipedia:

The Chaush are a Muslim community of Hadhrami Arab descent found in the Deccan region of India. [1] An extension of these Arab descendants is also found in Bosnia & Herzegovina [2] and & Montenegro. During the Ottoman era of the Balkans, 'Chaush' or Čauši were highly ranked military officers within the empire. They have a common origin with the Chavuse community of Gujarat.

Origins
Chaush is a Turkish word meaning military personnel, as many of them served in the armies of the Deccan rulers. They migrated to India in the 18th century, primarily from the Hadhrami people of the Hadhramaut region in Yemen. They have a big community mainly in the Deccan region of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. They have relatives living/working in the Persian Gulf region and many of them still holding Yemeni nationality. They came here in search of work especially from Yemen. They worked here with the Nizam of Hyderabad, serving in the armed forces or police. They have settled well over here and hold the Indian citizenship. They still have maintained the Arab culture in them. Most of them cannot speak Arabic but they still are Arabs. People who have migrated from Jizan(Saudi Arabia), They are the tribe known as Bin Munief Al Nahdi , and many more.

Culturally they are a bit different from the mainstream Indian Muslims. Famous dishes from the Chaush community are Lham- mandi, dajaj-mandi, hasseed, qahwa, and haleem. The famous tribes residing in India are Bin Hawel,Al Yafai, Al Kaseri (Kathiri), BinMazi, Al Nahdi, Al Attas, Bajaman, Bamaeen, Baqtayan, Al Amoudi, Bin Hilabi, Bawazir, Tamimi,Al Asbahi, Al Hamed, Batouq, Baadam, BaHakim, Bajhaw, Bajham, Basolaan, Al Jabri, Al Saadi,Al Jaidi,Balhabak, Alhabeeb, Binmubarak , Bakarshoom,Bahammam,Barmeem,Bakooban and Awalgi.

You will find members of chaush community wearing a soft cotton cloth called 'lungi'(Tehban) and Arabic robes, and in the past would wear at Jambiya (dagger) at their waist while 'Chaushi' from Bosnia and Montenegro look like modern Europeans.

Distribution
You will find this community in scores in an area called Barkas (previously known as Barracks), This area "Barkas" is also called as Little Arabia in Hyderabad, A.C. Guards in Hyderabad and in Telangana districts of AP including Karimnagar, Medak, Adilabad, Warangal, Mahboobnagar, Nizamabad etc. Old Aurangabad city of Maharashtra. Besides the majority of them reside in rural Maharashtra. The prominent being Ajanta village, Bhokardan, Dhawda, Jafferabad, Jalna, Ambad, Sawangi, Vaijapur, Gangapur, Partur, Pathri, Kannad, Beed, Osmanabad, Latur, Ausa, Parbhani, Nanded. There are also a few individuals of this community in Surat, Gujarat.

The Arab community in Hyderabad is the central connection chord to the government affairs and where in have some families representing the Hadarims of India and secure their right in Yemen.

The Chaush community of Aurangabad have founded an organisation The Jamiat ul Arab for the welfare of the Arab community of Maharashtra.

Bakulka is also one of the surname of Chaush found in the fore wall of Golcoonda fort.

So if India wants, India could try to get the Chaush community in India to mediate with the Hadhramaut Governate for either selling Socotra to India or to lease it to us.

Agnimitra · Post by **Agnimitra** » 24 Jun 2011 01:52

RajeshA wrote:So if India wants, India could try to get the Chaush community in India to mediate with the Hadhramaut Governate for either selling Socotra to India or to lease it to us.

In Hyd, Barkas has a reputation that, if you were to stare at a local for more than 15 seconds, you're likely to get knifed. Its part of the old city that gets to be called "chhota Porkistan", if you know what I mean. I have a hard time picturing Barkasi Chavushis and Siddhis mediating on behalf of GoI to acquire an island off the coast of Yemen.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 24 Jun 2011 02:54

Indian Base in Socotra

Carl wrote:
RajeshA wrote:So if India wants, India could try to get the Chaush community in India to mediate with the Hadhramaut Governate for either selling Socotra to India or to lease it to us.
In Hyd, Barkas has a reputation that, if you were to stare at a local for more than 15 seconds, you're likely to get knifed. Its part of the old city that gets to be called "chhota Porkistan", if you know what I mean. I have a hard time picturing Barkasi Chavushis and Siddhis mediating on behalf of GoI to acquire an island off the coast of Yemen.

Any sale of Socotra to India would be a major deal, upwards of perhaps 5 billion USD. The Chaush of Barkas would be more than happy to mediate. It would help them to get out and stretch their legs as well in the wider world, especially in their own native region of Hadhramaut, Yemen.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 24 Jun 2011 03:00

The Pakistani-Somali Nexus

Originally posted by anupmisra in TIRP Thread

anupmisra wrote:Remember that MV Suez issue where we all predicted the pakis (the ever predictable) would spin this into a H&D saving exercise? Well, their dirty laundry is in spin cycle and trumpets are being sounded (blown?) from every rampart.

Pakistan welcomes hostages freed by Somali pirates
In every thriller, there's a bad guy (the Somalians) and the good guy (the pakis). Who cares and remembers if the hostages had been released well before the paki naval ship heroically arrived. Read on... and note the bolded parts for shameless promotion (with cynicism)

Pakistan on Thursday gave an emotional welcome to a group of Egyptian and South Asian crew held hostage for 10 months by Somali pirates who released them after payment of $2.1 million ransom.
Pakistan helped Egypt to secure the release of the Egyptian-registered boat Suez, which docked in Oman last week after the ordeal which began in August 2010.
“Our navy ship PNS Zulfiqar has reached Karachi port along with the 22 crew members of the Egyptian boat,” said Pakistan navy spokesman Mohammad Kamran.
“We are welcoming them warmly and will keep the foreigners as our guests,” he said. The hostages received a heroes’ welcome in Karachi, Pakistan’s biggest city, amid tears and joy

If you are not ready to puke yet, read on for more stomach churning from the pakiland of incredibility.

“We had lost all hope. It is certainly a second life for us,”

“I am proud to be the daughter of a brave man. He showed immense courage to live in the difficult circumstances and in the end he made it possible to remain alive and also ensure his crew’s safety,”

All hail the new paki hero.

Pakistani officials said they paid $2.1 million to secure the release of the hostages.
“We utilised all means including our armed forces to ensure that all the victims, our Indian, Egyptian and Sri Lankan brothers, reach home safely,”

Piracy has surged in recent years off Somalia, a lawless, war-torn country that sits alongside one of the world’s most important shipping routes.
Man! I need fresh air, pepto-bismol and gas-x after this. Pa'astan is now the bulwark (nay, the bastion) for the righteous and what's good about this world.