Devise military solutions to the Somali piracy irritant

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 24 Jun 2011 03:01

The Pakistani-Somali Nexus

Originally posted by anupmisra in TIRP Thread

anupmisra wrote:Remember that MV Suez issue where we all predicted the pakis (the ever predictable) would spin this into a H&D saving exercise? Well, their dirty laundry is in spin cycle and trumpets are being sounded (blown?) from every rampart.

Pakistan welcomes hostages freed by Somali pirates
In every thriller, there's a bad guy (the Somalians) and the good guy (the pakis). Who cares and remembers if the hostages had been released well before the paki naval ship heroically arrived. Read on... and note the bolded parts for shameless promotion (with cynicism)

Pakistan on Thursday gave an emotional welcome to a group of Egyptian and South Asian crew held hostage for 10 months by Somali pirates who released them after payment of $2.1 million ransom.
Pakistan helped Egypt to secure the release of the Egyptian-registered boat Suez, which docked in Oman last week after the ordeal which began in August 2010.
“Our navy ship PNS Zulfiqar has reached Karachi port along with the 22 crew members of the Egyptian boat,” said Pakistan navy spokesman Mohammad Kamran.
“We are welcoming them warmly and will keep the foreigners as our guests,” he said. The hostages received a heroes’ welcome in Karachi, Pakistan’s biggest city, amid tears and joy

If you are not ready to puke yet, read on for more stomach churning from the pakiland of incredibility.

“We had lost all hope. It is certainly a second life for us,”

“I am proud to be the daughter of a brave man. He showed immense courage to live in the difficult circumstances and in the end he made it possible to remain alive and also ensure his crew’s safety,”

All hail the new paki hero.

Pakistani officials said they paid $2.1 million to secure the release of the hostages.
“We utilised all means including our armed forces to ensure that all the victims, our Indian, Egyptian and Sri Lankan brothers, reach home safely,”

Piracy has surged in recent years off Somalia, a lawless, war-torn country that sits alongside one of the world’s most important shipping routes.
Man! I need fresh air, pepto-bismol and gas-x after this. Pa'astan is now the bulwark (nay, the bastion) for the righteous and what's good about this world.

Start of a new business!

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 24 Jun 2011 03:04

Perhaps the thread could be renamed into "Managing Somali Piracy" thus joining BRF's "Managing ..." Threads.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 24 Jun 2011 05:23

Nothing that I have seen suggests to me that Socotra has features that can be used to convert it easily and conveniently into a naval base. I think those who are enthusiastic about a base in Socotra are ignoring or are ignorant of the fact that a port/harbor or base for ships cannot be created "just anywhere". The geography and climate have to be suitable. Neither seem to be suitable in Socotra.

Those waters have been navigated for more centuries than the number of decades that the British, Portuguese or US navies have existed. Its is not out of eastern stupidity that no port exists on Socotra.

Since I am re reading on this thread much of the material about Socotra I found on the net I was surprised not to find this titbit - or maybe I missed it
http://www.summerlandsocotra.com/SocotraHistory.html

the name Socotra is not Greek in origin, but derives from the Sanskrit dvipa sukhadhara ("island of bliss")

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 24 Jun 2011 08:00

brihaspati wrote:Yemen is problematic now. Whereas we had talked of trying for a base years ago on this forum. If the base was already there, it would now have had actually a stabilizing impact on the country too. But now it is really problematic. Any negotiation with any unstable group now would lead to complications later if that group fails to be in power.

On the other hand, some degree of retribution would be needed to ward off pirate attacks on Indian vessels. But once such a retributory move is started, it cannot stop until it has wiped out all resistance, which means in fact bulldozing the country's existing polity. India is not that confident yet. What about pressurizing OAU and KSA to ensure that Somalia's Islamic power-brokers ensure in turn that piracy stops? If they cannot give that undertaking and produce results, the OAU and KSA should be bound to participate in "cleaning" up the place with an Indian expeditionary force.

IMO, there is nothing that Yemen is going to be able to do to (which it is not already doing) to justify a continued risk-averse nature by India. There are way too many failed states in the IOR and Indian neighborhood for India's liking, it cannot stop doing what it has to do just because of this fact. It is certainly an awkward proposal where desh needs to strike a deal with one failed state to take down a global nuisance based out of another failed state.

Link relating to the Soviet FAPSI-GRU surveillance facility on the Socotra archipelago.

Link to article which talks of possible USAF base in Socotra, possibly drone ops. One also needs to consider the current economic climate in the US and its appetite for such an operation.

I am quite sure that there might have been some discussion on this matter (Socotra and the Soviet experience, possibly any further groundwork carried out by the Russians) between IN and its Russian counterpart already, even if the info is not privy to most of us on public fora.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 24 Jun 2011 11:47

Indian Base in Socotra

shiv wrote:Nothing that I have seen suggests to me that Socotra has features that can be used to convert it easily and conveniently into a naval base. I think those who are enthusiastic about a base in Socotra are ignoring or are ignorant of the fact that a port/harbor or base for ships cannot be created "just anywhere". The geography and climate have to be suitable. Neither seem to be suitable in Socotra.

Those waters have been navigated for more centuries than the number of decades that the British, Portuguese or US navies have existed. Its is not out of eastern stupidity that no port exists on Socotra.

IMO, we should think differently. To some extent, in an another era, we had a PM who said about a place, legally Indian BTW, that not a blade of grass grew there and let another power just grab it, and in subsequent years we have found out how highly strategic the place was.

We also have another example. Had the United States not bought off Alaska at the right time from Russia on March 30, 1867, for $7.2 million ($113 million in today's dollars) at about two cents per acre ($4.74/km²), the Cold War could have found a totally different outcome.

Just in this decade we have seen how China has executed a gigantic marvel of engineering with the 3 Gorges Dam (blending out the negatives here). Tomorrow India's capabilities too may be of a totally different order altogether.

So if our generation does not have the capacity to do something, at least we should have some confidence in our coming generations and prepare the ground for their fantasies.

In the mean time, China is taking an active geological interest in Socotra.

A New Look to the Yemeni Geology Based on New Solutions to the Most Chaotic Yemeni Geological Problems

Chapter 7 is dedicated to Socotra.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 24 Jun 2011 14:25

Old item

Published on Jan 19, 2009
By Fuad Rajeh
Russia To Set Up Navy Military Base On Socotra: Yemen Post

Russia is to set up a military base on Socotra Island but the timing for the establishment of the base has not been identified yet, Russian military officials have said.

The officials were cited as saying Russia has decided to set up three navy bases in three Arab countries including Yemen.

The other two bases would be in the Syrian city of Tartus and the Libyan city of Tripoli.

The move comes with the goal to protect Russian interests in the region, the officials said, pointing out that the base on the Yemeni Socotra Island will provide security to Russian civil vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

However, a number of Russian sources denied the news but said that the naval base would be set up “within a few years”. It is premature to name any countries as possible locations for naval bases,” said an official from the office of the military’s chief of staff.

The announcement was made at a time when Yemeni-US relations are somewhat tense due to different views over many issues related to the war on terror, piracy, democracy and human rights.

Piracy has recently soared off Somalia's coast and in the Gulf of Aden, after almost 115 ships and vessels were attacked by Somali pirates last year.

Many western countries along with Asian countries and Russia have sent naval ships to conduct anti-pirate patrols in the area.

Piracy off Somalia's coast has become a growing concern for all world countries, threatening one of the world's busiest waterways where 20,000 ships and vessels pass every year.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Jun 2011 15:23

has pics of socotra airport. ample space for P8I mashallah
http://www.pbase.com/andrej70/socotra_island&page=4

note the stunted bonsai looking trees in the other pages above...evidence of high wind that strips away young leaves and keeps the trees small and shrubby.

seems to be plenty of fishing boats in the sea.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 24 Jun 2011 17:16

Ships looking for a harbor normally look for a natural harbor which is protected by geography on 3 sides in such a way that even in stormy weather the harbor is comparatively calm. The approach to the harbor needs to be deep enough even in low tide so ships can steer and moor safely and there should not be underwater (or visible) obstacles into which ships can crash in poor weather.

No such features seem to exist on Socotra. Of course using earth movers and dynamite, I am sure such features can be created. But I was hoping we might make some progress on talking about what to do about piracy and control over the IOR rather than bashing our heads over a base in Socotra which everyone seems to have fallen in love with because it is labelled prominently on maps of the Indian Ocean.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 24 Jun 2011 18:53

What about exploring the proposal about entangling the OAU and KSA?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 24 Jun 2011 18:59

brihaspati wrote:What about exploring the proposal about entangling the OAU and KSA?

Let me just say some stuff off the top of my head - which is not based on any in depth knowledge. I somehow don't think KSA has any influence with the Somalis. This is a guess - I think the Saudis are corpulent rich Sultans who have no need or power to influence the warring factions in Somalia.

About OAU - I know nothing (other than the idea that OAU stands of Organization for (or of) African Unity") . I will certainly Google for info - but what is te OAU all about? Maybe this is the time for me to learn.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 24 Jun 2011 19:00

For the time being, I think Socotra can be a wonderful space from where India could fly UAVs, which could scan the waters sending telemetry about all sorts of boats and ships. In case, some Indian vessel, is under attack by the pirates, a drone fitted with missiles could reach the point of distress much more quickly, than an Indian Navy ship.

And then Big Badda Boom!

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 24 Jun 2011 19:47

Old Article. Please read in full to better appreciate the situation

Published on Oct 30, 2008
By Jeffrey Gettleman
Somalia’s Pirates Flourish in a Lawless Nation: NY Times

But one particular line of work — piracy — seems to be benefiting quite openly from all this lawlessness and desperation. This year, Somali officials say, pirate profits are on track to reach a record $50 million, all of it tax free.

“These guys are making a killing,” said Mohamud Muse Hirsi, the top Somali official in Boosaaso, who himself is widely suspected of working with the pirates, though he vigorously denies it.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Jun 2011 20:21

Socotra is getting a lot of airtime here, because mentally it plays into the sweet spot of many a brfite ( including me) . who hasnt dreamt of expeditionary ops in a bleak windswept island of white sand surrounded by a impossibly blue sea....of airbridges stretching across oceans....of the indic flag fluttering strongly across the seas in powerful DDG type ships silhoutted across a background of imposing cliffs...of marine commandoes in black wetsuits surging in zodiac boats across rolling breakers to desolate beaches....is a version of the lrdg/ibg fetish in other threads mixed with repressed memories of diego garcia base pics we have seen.

its a truly indic incurable disease saar.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 24 Jun 2011 20:46

replace socotra with CBG-1, 2 & 3 on patrol...
still works for me

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 24 Jun 2011 22:13

shiv ji,
just repeating my earlier post :
Yemen is problematic now. Whereas we had talked of trying for a base years ago on this forum. If the base was already there, it would now have had actually a stabilizing impact on the country too. But now it is really problematic. Any negotiation with any unstable group now would lead to complications later if that group fails to be in power.

On the other hand, some degree of retribution would be needed to ward off pirate attacks on Indian vessels. But once such a retributory move is started, it cannot stop until it has wiped out all resistance, which means in fact bulldozing the country's existing polity. India is not that confident yet. What about pressurizing OAU and KSA to ensure that Somalia's Islamic power-brokers ensure in turn that piracy stops? If they cannot give that undertaking and produce results, the OAU and KSA should be bound to participate in "cleaning" up the place with an Indian expeditionary force.

In March 2002, a US-Saudi joint order froze the funds held in Bosnia and Somalia by al Haramain Islamic foundation, a Mecca-based charity headed by Sheikh Saleh bin Abdul Aziz al-Ashaikh, Saudi minister for Islamic affairs. On August 2002, after persistent pressure from the Saudis, the Bosnian authorities released the assets and renewed the operating licenses of al Haramain. In September 2002, a Saudi newspaper even reported that the charity was expanding its activities in both Bosnia and Somalia, and had opened an Islamic center costing $530,000 in Sarajevo.

Another - anti-Iranian - but with a good overview of the complexity of the network, [that definitely sustains itself at least partly on piracy but not discussed that much in the article] is here:
http://gcreport.com/index.php/analysis/ ... ecret-wars

There have been reports of Pakistani Military Intelligence delivering weapons to Somalia. This is probably not an official Pakistani policy, but an action taken by pro-Taliban factions within Pakistani Military Intelligence. Al Shabaab has many links with the Taliban dating back from the 70’s and 80’s that facilitate this cooperation. The main purpose of this operation is probably for the Al Shabaab to tie down western resources that are then unavailable for the Afghanistan theater. Besides these non-state actors there are also several state actors that have supported the Al Shabaab, such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Saudia Arabia however is likely to have ended its support of the Al Shabaab since the Iranian-made links between the Yemeni Houthi rebels and the Somali Al Shabaab became apparent. In fact this could be seen as a direct victory of Iran over Saudi Arabia because it was able to secure a position of main foreign state sponsor of the Somali rebellion by coupling this rebellion to one the Saudis could impossibly tolerate.

KSA has its footprint in Somalia, and we cannot be entirely sure that it has given it up altogether. Given that some theorize that KSA is in a jihad mode against Iranian penetration of regions around its home-turf, it should be possible to get them on board.

Al shabab + hizb Islam has the potential to become a long term pawn in the Islamist dreams of controlling the Red Sea corridor. Piracy is one manifestation of this long term strategy. So I am not sure we can deal with the piracy without dealing with Al shabaab and Hizb Islami.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 25 Jun 2011 00:25

As I said earlier, UAE is developing a militia in Somalia to fight piracy using former blackwater owner. Its obviously a big problem for DPW who have ports in the region including in Yemen. Oman will be up for helping out too. Kenya should also be more than happy to provide intelligence support (considering India has excellent support network in Kenya).

Dawood has a big base in Mombasa, his sons wedding there too? Its a major place for arms dealers, piracy financers/money laundering for pirates. Dawood might be the one who is transferring the weapons. There are several indians who do business with the Somali generals in Somaliland.

Mukesh.Kumar · Post by **Mukesh.Kumar** » 25 Jun 2011 01:13

Added to that, Socotra "looks" into the Red Sea, thereby acting as a passive sanitisation platform for SSN's, provided we install radar systems to carry out the same.

One added advantage of this will be that the port will be very close to Duqm, where the Omani's are building Asia's largest dry dock, the only tanker port in GCC that will take ULCC's (Once this is open heavy crude from South Oman and Saudi which are at this moment uneconomical to export will be freed for exploitation) plus the largest airport in MENA capable of taking the largest planes (3 parallel runways 5km in length). We will be sitting in the right position. Capable of choking off a large volume of the oil exported to APAC and Europe. What with Iran being unstable, this place will grow in geopolitical importance in the coming years.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 25 Jun 2011 01:33

Socotra is with Yemen. Kaam ki baat karoji.

Mukesh.Kumar · Post by **Mukesh.Kumar** » 25 Jun 2011 01:43

@ Ramana- Correct me if I am wrong, Duqm is 500 odd km from Socotra to the north-east. Would it not make sense to have a choke point close to such a large maritime port. Just and added advantage if we were to explore leasing the island for anti-piracy operations.

Added later- Ramana garu point taken. Had got caught up in the romance of having India's own DG.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 25 Jun 2011 01:49

The piracy problem has many factors that need to be addressed. My point about Socotra was to the forum members and not just your post.
We need to ensure it doesnt become Af-Pak in the sea.

So it needs a mix of solutions still to be wroked out.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 25 Jun 2011 06:07

Mukesh.Kumar wrote:. Capable of choking off a large volume of the oil exported to APAC and Europe.

Mukesh - the way I see the world moving is that no single country or entity should be allowed to "choke off" movement through that sea lane. If any country does that we should be able to sink that navy and re open the lanes.

What I mean to say is that control is not just about "blocking off" but about keeping open.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 25 Jun 2011 10:33

Somali Piracy: Analysis

If somebody read the NY Times article I posted a bit earlier in this thread, one would realize that ....

just like Afghanistan has got addicted to opium trade, Somalia has got addicted to piracy.

Anybody who tries to take away their drug from them, is going to become very very unpopular with Afghans, with Somalis. The Somali economy practically lives off piracy. The governments of Puntland region of Somalia, gets 30% cut off every successful loot. It could be the same in Somaliland region.

In Afghanistan, Pakistan provides the export routes and protection for drug trade, and makes itself popular, in Somalia Pakistan could be providing arms and gadgetry, and become popular with the Somali pirates.

In Afghanistan, Pakistan has virtually choked off access to Central Asia for West and India. In Somalia they can choke off trade in the Indian Ocean.

In Afghanistan, NATO has become stuck due to its mission to bring stability to Afghanistan and to crush Al Qaeda, which can't happen because Pakistan would not allow them. In Somalia again India-led Gulf of Aden Piracy Control Mission can be sabotaged from the word go, if Pakistan keeps on pumping arms to Somali pirates. Some arms could be provided ferrying them over the Indian Ocean, others can be provided through Ibrahim Dawood's Networks in Mombasa Kenya sourcing those weapons from all over Africa, where there is abundance of weapons too.

There is going to be no end to this, and India would be making for herself many deadly enemies around the Indian Ocean Region, which is no way of going about building domination, for it is not as if we would be crushing the enemy. Should we try that, it becomes a non-Muslim on Muslim violence issue. And if we don't crush them, then we will be bled and bled and bled.

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 25 Jun 2011 10:48

Littoral islands of Eritrea and the Red Sea coast of Eritrea is the most favorable region from which India can carry out any military options against TSP-Somali nexus and D company's nefarious activities.

The Dahlak archipelago closely resembles the sorroundings of Hambantota in Ceylon and is an alternative for Indian military planners who may not be too comfortable with Socotra, which I admit looks a bit too aggressive to many (what with the talk of blocking off trade and such.

)

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 25 Jun 2011 11:38

Somali Piracy: Looking for Solutions

The way to beat Somali Piracy is to regulate it, squeeze it over a longer period of time, and in this time to help transition Somali economy to another source of income, and at the same time to marry this policy with an Indian strategy for domination on the Horn of Africa.

To regulate Somali piracy means to determine who gets to loot, how much, and from whom.

Any action on Somali pirates is undertaken only on those, who DO NOT want to accept our "overlordship"!

So what is this overlordship? It means all pirates who

decline to give us 10% commission on the booty!
we see to be involved with Pakistanis in procuring arms from them
who do not help us in providing information on those, who reject our overlordship
who object to Indian military deployment of 100,000 men to Boosaaso
who harm Indians who start arriving in Puntland in support of Indian military deployment

Now what do the pirates get in return, who help us

They get tips on high value cargo ships that come or go through Bab-el-Mandeb passage (between Red Sea and Gulf of Aden)
Communication is better facilitated with those, whose cargo or ship-crew gets hijacked/kidnapped.
They are not attacked by Indian ships or Indian UAVs during the hijacking

We are basically dividing Somali Pirates into Good Pirates and Bad Pirates.

Now this may sound preposterous, but this is the only way for India to get deep into the piracy groups and to exert a measure of control over them, without turning Somalis into our enemies. It is the only way, Indians would be given a chance to set up a big base for Indian Military on the Horn of Africa, and to initiate a program of economic revival there, without having a whole Jihad being called against us, and all our efforts being sabotaged.

Now the Indian Military need not "cooperate" with the "Good Pirates" directly, but some credible layer of middlemen, both Indian and Somali can be set up, who can move within this grey ethical zone.

Officially India would be there to fight Somalis. That is what West and the others would be told, and in fact we would be working for that goal. Whenever ships are hijacked, we will try to get them freed through negotiation. There will be enough fights against the "Bad Pirates" to prove that we are serious about piracy and are fighting it. There may be rumors here and there about Indian complicity in all this, but a little loss of image is a fair price to pay for Indian domination over Horn of Africa and an end to Somali challenge to Indian domination over the Indian Ocean.

We will need a military deployment in Somalia of over 15-20 years, accompanied with Indian investment and Indian civilians shifting to Somalia and settling down there, setting up families there, marrying Somali women, integrating themselves with Somali society, before we would see the alternative economic model set up by India winning over the piracy-based economy.

There is enough Oil in Puntland that an Indian deployment there can in fact finance the whole enterprise.

Right now, not many ships are willing to set anchor in Puntland out of fear of hijacking and this is not allowing any investments to come in and allow those oilfields to come on line. With the Indian military deployment there and our regulation of piracy India would have a headstart in exploiting the mineral riches of the place. This means the Puntland government would also become dependent on us, for their trade and investment.

We would also be able to build a considerable demographic presence in North Somalia to become a factor in the internal politics of Somalia.

Just some thoughts!

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 25 Jun 2011 12:43

Klaus wrote:Littoral islands of Eritrea and the Red Sea coast of Eritrea is the most favorable region from which India can carry out any military options against TSP-Somali nexus and D company's nefarious activities.

The Dahlak archipelago closely resembles the sorroundings of Hambantota in Ceylon and is an alternative for Indian military planners who may not be too comfortable with Socotra, which I admit looks a bit too aggressive to many (what with the talk of blocking off trade and such. )

We should in fact use the cover of piracy to build up our forces in Somalia itself, for it is Somalia that is the big prize. Somalia is the unstable country. It is there that India can build up an alternate political structure with India firmly in the saddle. Eritrea is more or less stable country. There is not much we can do there.

Eritrea is also an enemy of Ethiopia, with whom we already have a quasi-alliance. We have to take that into consideration as well.

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 25 Jun 2011 13:17

^^^ True. I was thinking of shaping and influencing activities on both sides of the Bab el-Mandab while we were at it. Having a presence in Dahlak archipelago also puts KSA and ME physical assets within close range, thus we will be making progress on both the IOR and ME fronts. Eritrea's stability is also another asset that makes the Dahlak better than Yemen's Socotra, IMO. Geographically and geo-strategically, Dahlak is as good as Socotra and surprise-surprise, also has a natural harbor!

The Ethiopia-Eritrea feud is well known but there is no way that Ethiopia can help us with naval facilities, since they do not even have a coastline, so it would be unreasonable of the Ethiopians to be outraged at India approaching Eritrea. I have already suggested that Ethiopia's army could be given technological support to territorially take on and weaken the rabid elements in Somaliland, after GoI's recent successful visit.

If you look at the big picture, Eritrea, Somalia and Ethiopia, their conflicts, problems and discord all have their roots in Abyssinia and the Empire. Its only fitting that one theatre is used to restore order in another.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 25 Jun 2011 13:24

Klaus ji,

It is an interesting idea. I will have to give it some thought.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 25 Jun 2011 14:01

RajeshA wrote: Now what do the pirates get in return, who help us

What do we do with pirates who do not cooperate with us?

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 25 Jun 2011 16:37

Why are we not thinking of sending in our financial-flow, economic development onlee experts into Somalia first? Surely all such criminal activity like piracy come out of lack of economic development? Without such development first, piracy will never stop. However, the same economic developmenters will also say that investments will not go into an "unstable" country, so no development is possible. That means, no-development == no stopping of piracy == unstable country == no development.

Getting involved in any military base forming, or military action against pirates == war-mongerism == lack of confidence of foreign investors into the Indian economy == fall in dus percenti growth == destruction of future potential to grow powerful enough to automatically stop all such aggression against India without having to lift a single military finger.

There will be severe opposition to any of the fantasies that we are planning here - from within those who "matter" in India.

If you are planning for any involvement in Somalia, do also think of this. moreover, as has already been pointed out, there can very well be interests within India linking transnational criminal networks across the Arabian sea. It will be the same source that is keen on business ties with Pak and rather vicariously with that of the Gulf region.

Can we have a country-wise breakup of pirate capture of ships? As well as if possible, ownership? It seems that the target country/ownership is rather skewed. This could give some important clues as to who have already come to an understanding with the pirates, as well as international political considerations that work behind the somali pirates.

My assessment is that the piracy is fully backed by the two Islamic militancy groups that have virtually divided up the country into a north-south division. There are also indications that they have come to a certain agreement about sharing control, and for both piracy is a source of income and resources. Further, any international force backing these two will also have interest in keeping the region destabilized to choke off economic gains of its rivals who have a stake in the normal shipping through the sea-lanes.

It maybe worthwhile to consider the Saudi-Iranian rivalry as part of the bigger picture in this domain.

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 25 Jun 2011 17:42

brihaspati wrote:Why are we not thinking of sending in our financial-flow, economic development onlee experts into Somalia first? Surely all such criminal activity like piracy come out of lack of economic development? Without such development first, piracy will never stop.

The optimist in me would like to think that planners & strategy thinkers in GoI would not repeat the same steps as that taken by India in Afghanistan, namely of contributing to infra development with minimal security arrangements. We are seeing that Indian involvement and investment in AFG is substantial but does not have a leg to stand on to be able to withstand the opposition.

Already, we have posts saying that a few clan factions in Somalia make the Taliban look 'moderately enlightened'. However, it would be a good idea if India needs to get rid of all its WKK's and DIE's in one quick stroke by deporting them to Somaliland.

However, the same economic developmenters will also say that investments will not go into an "unstable" country, so no development is possible. That means, no-development == no stopping of piracy == unstable country == no development.Getting involved in any military base forming, or military action against pirates == war-mongerism == lack of confidence of foreign investors into the Indian economy == fall in dus percenti growth == destruction of future potential to grow powerful enough to automatically stop all such aggression against India without having to lift a single military finger.

There will be severe opposition to any of the fantasies that we are planning here - from within those who "matter" in India.

The exercise of the thread is to come up with a few workable alternatives so that India does not have to rue 'lost opportunities', when it looks back and introspects 25 years later.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 25 Jun 2011 17:50

Klaus ji,
Indian policy is now firmly in the hands of the "middle class" [in the Marxian sense - useful even if devious as a concept], as well as "mercantile mentality", which in combination judges giving a few millions to the pirates much less risky for all the golden egg laying schemes that they have in place. Everything is reduced to monetary benefits terms - and in that sense "paying off the dacait" is a less risky option in monetary terms.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 25 Jun 2011 18:29

The idea is to use this piracy threat to carve out our own area on the horn of Africa. As much as morally reprehensible it may sound, but this has been reality of human race. We need a foothold on the western side of the Indian Ocean for the long term protection of our maritime trade and also to checkmate the "string of pearls" strategy by Cheen. A small chunk in Somalia could help IN control the piracy or atleast enable us to keep an eye on the pirates. I am sure it is easier said than done but what is the harm in bringing this idea on the table.

I think it should be a big bang approach where suddenly world wakes to few million Indians in Somalia protected by IA and IAF with Vikramditya bringing up the rear. Once you have the squatters, it is hard to remove them so easily. GoI can feed and take care of such folks for few years as initial Investment. Don't call the region occupied by such squatters and sanitized by IA as little India or something. Just let it remain nameless for few years and then declare local govt and ask GoI to make it its protectorate. It can be a 10-20 Years plan. One Airforce base, few Army cantonments and a small naval fleet..That should be the target for next 5 years to start with.

Will we make enemies with such an act, sure we would but then if you want to be the bad-ass Alpha dog in the neighborhood, you will make enemies.
Anyways we have had enough winning these popularity contests and no benefits.

Who knows what tomorrow would bring and We will rue not having foothold in the region around Red sea.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 25 Jun 2011 18:58

Will we make enemies with such an act, sure we would but then if you want to be the bad-ass Alpha dog in the neighborhood, you will make enemies.
Anyways we have had enough winning these popularity contests and no benefits.

True words sir. nobody climbs the power pole by making no enemies and being a nice and obedient type.

when the goras were carving up the lucrative parts of the world to exploit(africa,india,malaya,east indies,central america) and settle in the more temperate parts (Safrica,Oz,NZ,usa,mehico,brazil,argentina,chile) they made no friends and fought quite viciously for control like french and english in India, boers and english in SA , english and dutch in indonesia and so on.....nothing was given for free, every bone had three gora countries lined up to take a bite.

sitting back cautiously will result in nothing but a couple of chewed bones, with the meat already in eagles and lizards belly.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 25 Jun 2011 19:05

brihaspati wrote:Why are we not thinking of sending in our financial-flow, economic development onlee experts into Somalia first? Surely all such criminal activity like piracy come out of lack of economic development? Without such development first, piracy will never stop. However, the same economic developmenters will also say that investments will not go into an "unstable" country, so no development is possible. That means, no-development == no stopping of piracy == unstable country == no development.

Getting involved in any military base forming, or military action against pirates == war-mongerism == lack of confidence of foreign investors into the Indian economy == fall in dus percenti growth == destruction of future potential to grow powerful enough to automatically stop all such aggression against India without having to lift a single military finger.

Brihaspati this is clearly the "wise path". But I have some thoughts.

As I see it - conquests of territory in the past rode on the back of advancements in weapons and warfighting methods. Sea power was an early deveiopment. In relatively recent times the horse and mounted, mobile forces began consistently defeating infantry. The next step ahead was the gun - and the coming of firearms overrode everything else. Colonialism and the conquest of Africa came with the firearm. More recently air power made it possible to gain victory, but on the ground the firearm still rules. Holding territory needs needs men on the ground and firearms. Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Waziristan and even Somalia all reached a stalemate because the firearm technology is no different whether it is a US GI, Viet Cong, Taliban or Somali yahoo. Somalians can be defeated in the air and perhaps even at sea. On land all forces are equals because the firearm has now reached everyone in the world after WW2.

This means that the Somali cannot be defeated in his land as long as he has a supply of firearms, and supplies of firearms are easy to get. If we must defeat the Somalis militarily in Somalia the cheapest method would be to copy the US and use robots - a.k.a UCAVs to do pinpoint targeting of individuals and other targets and "wear down" a rebel population. This could go on side by side with peace efforts and negotiations as the US is doing in AfPak

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 25 Jun 2011 19:08

Somali Piracy: Looking for Solutions

shiv wrote:
RajeshA wrote: Now what do the pirates get in return, who help us
What do we do with pirates who do not cooperate with us?

Those are the Bad Pirates!

Let's consider the question in two phases.

When we reach Somalia, everybody would be a Bad Pirate. We would have to teach them how to be Good Pirates. Any teaching that takes place, takes place through

carrots - freedom to carry out their profession, once they have pledged cooperation with Indian authorities
sticks - Initially the sticks would be limited to taking pirates captive, i.e. disrupting their work; confiscating their weapons (and maybe boats as well); putting them in jail. Killing, injuring, etc. can take place only Indian ships are threatened and only in extreme circumstances.
communication - Communication can take place in an atmosphere where the other is willing to listen - i.e. is both captive and not hostile.

They will have to be taught that it is far better for them to submit to Indian navy ships on sea and to Indian security forces on land, as they would not be harmed, and sooner or later they will be set free. They should learn that putting up a fight with Indian security forces is only idiocy.

Once Indian security forces have taken the Bad Pirates into custody, they will be turned over to the Puntland authorities, who put them away in some jail. When they are in jail, they will be approached by Indian "shady characters" and offered a deal, that they would get them freed from jail, if they are willing to give them 10% of the booty and cooperate with them. The Bad Pirates would be turned into Good Pirates.

If one wants to stay Bad Pirate, he would remain stuck in some Puntland prison for a very long time, which does not serve him at all.

To the international community, India only needs to show that we are taking our mission seriously, so there will be often arrests of pirates on the high seas. The pirates would surrender to Indian navy, their weapons and boats will be confiscated, they will be turned over to the Puntland authorities, where they will sit for two weeks and then come out, and their boats and guns would be returned to them. It would all be a revolving door.

For the international community we will be providing the following "services":

Since we would be saving several ships and boats travelling in the waters, there will always be enough media reports of Indian good work.
Other ships and boats which get hijacked, there Indian authorities would be able to put the ship owners and the respective governments in contact with the hijackers.
Once freed, Indian navy can also escort the freed crewmen and ships out of Somali waters providing them with fuel, water food and medical treatment.

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In the second phase, after a few years of Indian military deployment to Somalia, if there are still Bad Pirates, with them we will have to deal with more sternly. Most probably we can set the Good Pirates on them to take them down. We can get intelligence about them through our network of Good Pirates, when they go out to sea, where some UAV of ours can take them down, or we just inform some ship of some other navy to do the dirty work.

In general, Somali pirates would be happy to cooperate with Indian Anti-Piracy Task Force for Somalia (IAPTFS) as with us there would be far less danger that they will come to any physical harm, and would be more likely be in business again within a month.

Sure some coalition partner, some Western media outlet may pose questions as to why the pirates come free, and we can always tell them, that we simply turn the pirates over to Puntland authorities and if they come free, Indians cannot do much about it.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 25 Jun 2011 19:52

Somali Piracy: Looking for Solutions

brihaspati wrote:Why are we not thinking of sending in our financial-flow, economic development onlee experts into Somalia first? Surely all such criminal activity like piracy come out of lack of economic development? Without such development first, piracy will never stop. However, the same economic developmenters will also say that investments will not go into an "unstable" country, so no development is possible. That means, no-development == no stopping of piracy == unstable country == no development.

Getting involved in any military base forming, or military action against pirates == war-mongerism == lack of confidence of foreign investors into the Indian economy == fall in dus percenti growth == destruction of future potential to grow powerful enough to automatically stop all such aggression against India without having to lift a single military finger.

There will be severe opposition to any of the fantasies that we are planning here - from within those who "matter" in India.

If you are planning for any involvement in Somalia, do also think of this. moreover, as has already been pointed out, there can very well be interests within India linking transnational criminal networks across the Arabian sea. It will be the same source that is keen on business ties with Pak and rather vicariously with that of the Gulf region.

I can't say whether the political elite in India would allow or not allow an Indian Military Deployment to Somalia.

I can only speak about what should be the nature of the Indian Military Deployment there. Some points:

It should be sanctioned by a United Nations Security Council Resolution, and it should be open ended with a provision that if they want to recall the international troops deployed to Somalia, they should do it with a second resolution. This is to allow our deployment there to be infinitely long, assuming P-5 in the future cannot agree on drawing down the deployment. There will be no Central Govt. in Somalia for a long time, meaning there will always be some reason to keep international troops in Somalia (read Indian troops).
Even as our formal mission statement would be to fight piracy, we would first coopt it, support it, control it, and then stop it further down in the future, once we have achieved what we want.
We should not even think of getting ourselves into a war with Somalis. We should have the best of relationship with the Puntland Government, and informally with the pirates themselves too. If we can avoid it, i.e. if Somalis do not attack us in Somalia, we should not go out and attack them. There is no need to create bad blood and hostility between Indians and Somalis.
We should get the rich countries in the world to finance our military deployment and operations in Somalia. Those who pay up, would get better escort service for their ships through those dangerous waters.

So there would not be any sense of India being in some sort of war, and Indian economy too should not suffer due to it. There will be little drag on our economy due to financing the deployment, as our profits from trading and mining in Puntland would in themselves cover the cost of the deployment, and then some of it would also be borne by the rich countries.

In fact considering the mineral riches in Puntland, Indian business would be stupid not to venture in.

Our relations with the Puntland Government would ensure that only we get the mining rights. Our relations with the pirates would ensure that only Indian ships are able to dock in Puntland ports. Puntland mining would be our monopoly. To support all the heightened commercial activity there will be hundreds of thousands of Indians or even millions which could migrate to the region. The 100,000+ strong Indian military deployment would provide security for this commercial activity, and Indian friends, the Good Pirates (and even the Bad Pirates) would make sure that nobody comes in.

brihaspati wrote:Can we have a country-wise breakup of pirate capture of ships? As well as if possible, ownership? It seems that the target country/ownership is rather skewed. This could give some important clues as to who have already come to an understanding with the pirates, as well as international political considerations that work behind the somali pirates.

My assessment is that the piracy is fully backed by the two Islamic militancy groups that have virtually divided up the country into a north-south division. There are also indications that they have come to a certain agreement about sharing control, and for both piracy is a source of income and resources. Further, any international force backing these two will also have interest in keeping the region destabilized to choke off economic gains of its rivals who have a stake in the normal shipping through the sea-lanes.

It maybe worthwhile to consider the Saudi-Iranian rivalry as part of the bigger picture in this domain.

I don't think Iran really has much influence in Somalia. Somalis are hard-core Sunnis. The Shia are a very tiny minority. It is just that not everybody was keen to be ruled by Al-Shebaab. Whereas the South is virtually in control of Al-Shebaab, except a strip of territory along Kenya called Jubaland/Azania over which Kenya has influence; North is supported to some extent by the Ethiopians and West, but not enough to do away with piracy.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 25 Jun 2011 20:08

Somali Piracy: Looking for Solutions

shiv wrote:This means that the Somali cannot be defeated in his land as long as he has a supply of firearms, and supplies of firearms are easy to get. If we must defeat the Somalis militarily in Somalia the cheapest method would be to copy the US and use robots - a.k.a UCAVs to do pinpoint targeting of individuals and other targets and "wear down" a rebel population. This could go on side by side with peace efforts and negotiations as the US is doing in AfPak

The assumption is being made, that we need to defeat the Somalis militarily. We don't need to defeat them, simply because we are not in a war with them, nor should we intend to go to a war with them!

Right now Puntland Govt. may be taking 30% from all Somali loot but they are losing out on major investments, commercial mining and trade, with piracy having become the only source of revenue for the whole country.

India can make them an offer they can't refuse. We will bring in the whole gamut of commercial activity, so that the Puntland Government can get revenues from other sources as well, and in order to do that we get to set up a couple of bases in the region. We will let them know, that the military deployment is not to make war, but only to provide security for the Indian commercial activity in the region, as well as to "regulate" piracy.

So we are keeping all constituencies happy in Somalia: Puntland Government (who get revenue from mining and trading), Puntlander people (who get jobs), Somali Pirates (who get a sympathetic cop).

There is no war, there is no defeat, there is no hostility. There is only taqqiya!

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 25 Jun 2011 20:31

Somali Piracy: Looking for Solutions

VikasRaina wrote:The idea is to use this piracy threat to carve out our own area on the horn of Africa. As much as morally reprehensible it may sound, but this has been reality of human race. We need a foothold on the western side of the Indian Ocean for the long term protection of our maritime trade and also to checkmate the "string of pearls" strategy by Cheen. A small chunk in Somalia could help IN control the piracy or atleast enable us to keep an eye on the pirates. I am sure it is easier said than done but what is the harm in bringing this idea on the table.

I think it should be a big bang approach where suddenly world wakes to few million Indians in Somalia protected by IA and IAF with Vikramditya bringing up the rear. Once you have the squatters, it is hard to remove them so easily. GoI can feed and take care of such folks for few years as initial Investment. Don't call the region occupied by such squatters and sanitized by IA as little India or something. Just let it remain nameless for few years and then declare local govt and ask GoI to make it its protectorate. It can be a 10-20 Years plan. One Airforce base, few Army cantonments and a small naval fleet..That should be the target for next 5 years to start with.

Will we make enemies with such an act, sure we would but then if you want to be the bad-ass Alpha dog in the neighborhood, you will make enemies.
Anyways we have had enough winning these popularity contests and no benefits.

Who knows what tomorrow would bring and We will rue not having foothold in the region around Red sea.

VikasRaina ji,

I agree completely with the goal, but I disagree somewhat with your approach.

You take away some territory like that, and you will have Jihad on your hands coming from all directions, severe sanctions from the West, who would not hesitate to stamp you as the main culprit. We need not make it a case of struggle. It is too late in history for such conquests.

I am proposing that millions of Indians migrate to Somalia, but instead of creating an enclave, they intermingle with the Somalis.

When the Arabs came to the Pushtun tribal areas, they intermarried there. Later on the Taliban, the Pushtuns were not willing to hand over the Arabs to the coalition troops or to the Pakistanis even though they faced war and occupation. The Taliban gave up power in Afghanistan, but did not give up Osama bin Laden to Americans. OT, that is why there was so bitterness among the Jihadis when the Americans took down Osama bin Laden. For that meant that the Taliban gave up power in Afghanistan for nothing. The price became too high.

Anyway, I am proposing that Indians who migrate to Somalia should also marry in Somalia, stay Dharmic, but also learn the Somali language, Somali customs, buy land and settle down. The Somali family in which they marry would start receiving some money, and the whole family will be happy. Later on more Indians can migrate there, who could have non-Somali wives.

It is with such bonds of family, that Somaliland and Puntland would become close to India, almost India. Later on one can start using Devanagri for Somali language, first as street signs to help Indians, later on in schools as well. Then one can introduce the Indian Rupee as the de-facto currency in Somalia.

In the end Somalia can enter some form of association with India, allowing Indian military presence there outside the scope of a UN mandate.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 25 Jun 2011 21:23

Rajeshji - your ideas are nowadays coming as 50-50 mixed ideas. 50% original and 50 % outrageous.

AMERICA FIRST, THE WORLD NEXT

Why not go to Australia, remain dharmic and marry there and gradually take over Australia? Oh I know - that would not help the Somalia problem. In fact taking over the US this way would be even better, I doubt if there are more than a thousand Indians in Somalia, but we already have a couple of million in the US - all ready to intermarry and take over. Surely if we wanted to control any country the USA would be a better choice than Somalia, The fact that the US has 300 million people should not matter. The British did not count the number of Indians in India and get discouraged before they took over India.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 25 Jun 2011 22:21

Somali Piracy: Looking for Solutions

shiv wrote:Rajeshji - your ideas are nowadays coming as 50-50 mixed ideas. 50% original and 50 % outrageous.

shiv saar,

if we look around the Indian Ocean, we actually see an Islamic Ocean. What percentage of the coastline of the Indian Ocean is really under Indian influence? Should we make a pie chart, centered in the Indian Ocean, each slice extending from the edges of the coastline of a country, how big would be the Indian slice?

If we are to become some power of some measure in the world of tomorrow, the only geostrategic space for us to stamp as being under Indian dominance is the Indian Ocean. It is our control of the Indian Ocean that would ensure us a seat at the big table! Indian Ocean is also the world's most contested and most unstable oceans, considering that most of the countries bordering it are Islamic.

An interesting note: Yemen and Somalia are growing at an incredible rate. They are 15 and 16 in the world rankings respectively for the highest population growth rate, these being 2.97 and 2.92 respectively. Both countries are littoral states on the Indian Ocean. Both are strategically located, overlooking the choke point Bab-el-Mandeb, thereby controlling the flow of trade into and out of the Indian Ocean.

So we have a choice - either we secure our domination over this area, or some other power would do that. It is either expand or perish. Status quo is the big lie in history.

Second question is how do we establish our primacy in the Indian Ocean. The problem is that the age of conquests is long past and the days of Dharmic missionary triumph may never come. The littoral regions we would like to dominate are occupied by Islamists, who don't really like Dharmics. Even if could do that, there are powers in the world who wouldn't allow us to do it.

The one big advantage India still has is our large population. The second advantage is that in respect to some other countries we have a better economy and a better military, but these can only be used in certain ways and not arbitrarily like a magic wand.

So considering

the restrictions on our ambitions placed by the current world order
the increasingly non-compatible and even hostile neighborhood to our Dharmic identitiy
our demography being our big advantage

what other means would you recommend, which would be less "outrageous"/"preposterous"?

shiv wrote:AMERICA FIRST, THE WORLD NEXT

Why not go to Australia, remain dharmic and marry there and gradually take over Australia? Oh I know - that would not help the Somalia problem. In fact taking over the US this way would be even better, I doubt if there are more than a thousand Indians in Somalia, but we already have a couple of million in the US - all ready to intermarry and take over. Surely if we wanted to control any country the USA would be a better choice than Somalia, The fact that the US has 300 million people should not matter. The British did not count the number of Indians in India and get discouraged before they took over India.

The only countries, where I would recommend the strategy of large-scale marriages is where we have a definite advantage in wealth differential.

Where the wealth-differential is not there, there marriages can take place only through individual efforts and as such cannot become a large-scale phenomenon which is required to make a big demographic impact in the target land. Also to make demographic impact, the current population of the target land cannot be overly big, for otherwise the challenge becomes too big.

Puntland has a population of around 4.2 million. Somaliland has a population of around 4 million. These are places where an conceivable migration of 2-3 million Indians can make a very large difference, especially if there is institutional support to marry Indian migrants locally.

I don't believe these conditions can be reproduced in other lands, that you mention - Australia, USA, etc.