Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): June 30, 2011

[shiv]

The occurrence of two terrorist attacks in China and the subsequent reports give us an opportunity to analyse the situation in Pakistan from the way the US and China are reacting.

Both the US and China are actually taking pains to praise the Pakistan army rather than criticize. To me this indicates that the Paki army really is (or is pretending to be) in such a precarious situation that trying to force the Paki army to take on the Islamic groups will cause them to lose all support and may cause a catastrophic split in the Paki army.

Whether this story is true or not, both the USA and China seem to believe it and are showing identical reactions to insults from Pakistan - i.e praising the Paki army's work and calling for continued cooperation.

Neither the USA nor China will act directly against the Islamists. That would mean declaring war against Pakistan. The Pakistan army cannot give them "permission" to do so - certainly not in public -because the army is already accused of obeying foreigners. The reason why allieslike China are being attacked is because the islamist groups are out of control. The Paki arycan't control them. The US can't control them. China can't control them

But the USA and China retain some goodwill and cordial relations with the senior officers of the Paki army and they do not want to break this link. If that link is broken they lose everything - they will have no handle on Pakistan at all. That link will be broken if they are critical of the Pakistan army, or is they attempt to force the Paki army to act, or if they act against the Islamic militants themselves - amounting to a formal invasion of Pakistan. Both countries are hoping that they can encourage the elements of the Pakistani army who are friendly with them to act against the others.

Of course if the Pakis are pretending with China and the US - they have already lost. It will be only a matter of time before the Islamists take over. I think the Paki army today is the weakest it has been since 1971. To me that begs the question - why not attack them now and sort everything out?

Will post my take on that later if I have any bright ideas.

[Suppiah]

CRamS saab...let us confine to past events, not future possibilities...that is speculation. WKKs, powered or powerless have not achieved much as yet. Remember, even without opposition parties, public opinion, entrenched babudom, clever and articulate voices in Army etc., are all there to stop the most bleeding heart WKK from giving away anything.

Talking has started yes, so what? ABV did that too....talk is cheap particularly in Asia, even more so in S.Asia.

Again, I am not supporting the talk to TSP policy, I am more than happy to support a nuke em all one fine morning policy, but strictly going by what has been 'achieved' I think there is not much to worry..

[Suppiah]

To BENIS or not to BENIS ?

http://arabnews.com/opinion/columns/article481379.ece

This guy, a CEO?

How do they select CEOs in Saudi Arabia? Ask them to recite the Hadith forwards and backwards?

[ramana]

I wish to highlight some of your key points:

The occurrence of two terrorist attacks in China and the subsequent reports give us an opportunity to analyse the situation in Pakistan from the way the US and China are reacting.

Both the US and China are actually taking pains to praise the Pakistan army rather than criticize. To me this indicates that the Paki army really is (or is pretending to be) in such a precarious situation that trying to force the Paki army to take on the Islamic groups will cause them to lose all support and may cause a catastrophic split in the Paki army.

Whether this story is true or not, both the USA and China seem to believe it and are showing identical reactions to insults from Pakistan - i.e praising the Paki army's work and calling for continued cooperation.

Neither the USA nor China will act directly against the Islamists. That would mean declaring war against Pakistan. The Pakistan army cannot give them "permission" to do so - certainly not in public -because the army is already accused of obeying foreigners. The reason why allies like China are being attacked is because the islamist groups are out of control. The Paki army can't control them. The US can't control them. China can't control them.

But the USA and China retain some goodwill and cordial relations with the senior officers of the Paki army and they do not want to break this link. If that link is broken they lose everything - they will have no handle on Pakistan at all. That link will be broken if they are critical of the Pakistan army, or is they attempt to force the Paki army to act, or if they act against the Islamic militants themselves - amounting to a formal invasion of Pakistan. Both countries are hoping that they can encourage the elements of the Pakistani army who are friendly with them to act against the others.

Of course if the Pakis are pretending with China and the US - they have already lost. It will be only a matter of time before the Islamists take over. I think the Paki army today is the weakest it has been since 1971. To me that begs the question - why not attack them now and sort everything out?

Will post my take on that later if I have any bright ideas.

Very insightful post. The Abortabad raid has triggered the long awaited internal Islamist coup inside TSP. The PNS Mehran attack was a reaction to the US unilateral action inside TSP and the exposure of the impotency of the TSPA.

The Islamists to show their equal opportunity/all azimuth strategic defiance have attacked PRC through their usual non-state actors. The TSPA has mollified the PRC with Pasha visit. Next expect them to get hit to show displeasure.

Long time ago I had asked one of our departed Admins to identify the three or four key changes in TSPA that will change its image from a modern British inspired military force to an antediluvian razaakar force. Unfortunately he left before that could happen.

In retrospect the Abortabad raid was one such event for it dropped the mask of the TSPA's modernity.

As for your idea, of attacking the TSPA now at its weakest, it is not the right time. For such an attack from India will rally them and prop them as nothing else will.

What I see is the TTP type elements raiding Slumabad and a major section of the TSPA joining them. This has happened many times in Islamist history of the forces joining up with the hardline elements and regime change the Caliph/Sultan/President.

[BijuShet]

From The News (posting in full). During Ramzaan if TSPians face difficulty while travelling in addition to they efforts in fasting then it will lead to more headaches for TSP govt. Is there any particular reason they cannot make an effort to run trains on time during key festivals? This surely cannot be due to low supplies of engine oil reported earlier. Is PPP doing this deliberately or are they just incompetent?

Railways schedule still disrupted

Updated 9 hours ago
LAHORE: Pakistan Raliways continues to be plagued by delays and on Thursday passengers were seen waiting for several hours at stations for trains, Geo News reported.

The timetable for arrivals and departures has been turned upside down and trains which run on branch lines have started to close down.

Trains traveling from Quetta, Peshawar and Karachi to Lahore are delayed by 2 to 10 hours. Five trains which travel from Lahore to smaller cities are standing idle because they do not have engines.

According to Railway sources, the Awami Express which travels from Karachi to Lahore was delayed by seven hours, Jaffar, Allama Iqbal, Karachi Express by 6, and Karakorum Express by 4 hours.

The General Manager of Pakistan Railway, Anjum Parvez stated that the reason for the delays is outdated and lack of engines.

[ramana]

Arent they having loco problems? The locos need more frequent maintenence as they were not suitable for TSP environment.

[BijuShet]

From The News (posting in full). Are ambassadors allowed to say such things especially when the province in question is facing insurgency and revolt?

Balochistan is of importance to US: Munter

Updated 10 hours ago
QUETTA: US Ambassador Cameron Munter said Pakistan and specially Balochistan is of importance to them and US would continue to work for strengthening democracy in the country, Geo News reported.

He was talking to media after a meeting with Balochistan Assembly Speaker Mohammad Aslam Bhootani here today. Munter noted that we US would always be there whenever needed.

'People of Balochiatan {Why refer to people of Balochistan when he should be saying people of Pakistan. Just wondering or am I chasing Ghosts?}are very hospitable and I have always receive respect by them.' He told journalists that US would cooperate in Balochistan's water and energy projects.

In meeting with Speaker Aslam Bhootani, they discussed matters of mutual interests.

[Theo_Fidel]

why not attack them now and sort everything out?

Population. 180 million rabid dogs.

[BijuShet]

Arent they having loco problems? The locos need more frequent maintenence as they were not suitable for TSP environment.

I think the locomotive troubles were for goods trains. Not sure if the problem extends to passenger trains too.

[Nandu]

Watch this space. This is bound to snowball into a big one.

That Pakistan Nuclear Expert May Be a Lowly Accountant

Did you check the date on that report?

[menon s]

Karachi Bob at it again.
Plot to target ministers with perfume bomb foiled, says Malik
http://www.dawn.com/2011/08/04/plot-to- ... malik.html

[BijuShet]

From The News (posting in full). The reason for increasing the banks liquidity is that Tspians are shirking from their Islamic duties. I was amazed to see TSP banks imposing Islamic piety on its account holders. Zia indeed was a RAW agent when he pushed Islamic piety on TSPians.
Rs85b pumped in to ease bank's liquidity

Updated yesterday
KARACHI: The Central Bank has pumped into the banking system Rs85 billion for easing out the banks’ liquidity crunch.

Money dealers said that the banks deduct the amount of Zakat every year on the 1st of Ramazan from the accounts of their customers, who in a bid to avoid such deduction withdraw most of their deposits in the banks unleashing severe liquidity problems.

The Central Bank taking due notice of the emanating situation has, therefore, provided Rs85 billion to the banks for two days at 13.2 percent interest.

[rajpa]

Of course if the Pakis are pretending with China and the US - they have already lost. It will be only a matter of time before the Islamists take over. I think the Paki army today is the weakest it has been since 1971. To me that begs the question - why not attack them now and sort everything out?

Pakis are doing their best to find rapprochement with both the US and the Haqqanis/Taliban. They have been able to take the US along so far using arguments of geo-political strategy (evil yindoos, strategic depth) and to some extent by staging some kind of operations against the bad (non-afghan) taliban.

With the Osammy operation and the files found there, the evidence may already be out that the Haqqanis are over-rated and the ISI is the real al-qaeda. I suspect that is the reason the US has withdrawn $800 mil aid. This could be the logic behind Kabul's overtures with the Taliban as well.

TSP cannot do without integration with the rest of the world. It is not NoKo or Iran. So with more soft pressure from the US, the fall of TSP is inevitable.

TSP will lose the Haqqanis to Kabul, the al-keeda elements in secret deals (a la ilyas kashmiri) to the US..

LeT stays behind. With chai biskoot and infinite WKK love after that, it wont matter.

[ramana]

The Haqqanis are not independents. They are ISI elements out of uniform. They are a part of the TSPA.

[rajpa]

I think the Haqqanis are probably a mix of the ISI and the all Afghan Taliban. The TSP probably sold the Haqqanis as proud Afghans who also help TSP. This proud Afghan part will talk peace to Kabul under proper conditions.

The ISI part of the Haqqani group is probably related to the al-qaeda proper this this must have sunk in to the US after the Osammy operation. This ISI part also nurtures various other terrorists like the Xinjiang bunch, LeT etc. This ISI alqaeda part must be destroyed by the US/China/India.

The Haqqanis are probably a holding entity of Afghans, Punjabis, Uighurs, Uzbeks, Chechens, what not. Not a single monolithic identity. The ISI is the network hq.

[saip]

Recently I started writing letters to my Congressman and the Senators about Pakistani perfidy. For whatever it is worth I am getting replies:

A reply from my Congressman:

Dear Mr. Pxxx,



Thank you for sharing your perspective regarding American foreign policy towards Pakistan. It is helpful to learn the views of my friends and neighbors in Northern California, and I appreciate having your input.



Pakistan is a central front in anti-terror operations, and it is important to combat the activities of extremists in Pakistan. U.S. security can benefit if aid is properly used by Pakistan, but I also share your concern about Pakistan's level of cooperation with U.S. anti-terror efforts. In the aftermath of the operation that successfully brought Osama bin Laden to justice, we have many unanswered questions about Pakistan's intelligence services.



That is why I voted in favor of an important amendment to H.R. 2219, the Department of Defense Appropriations Act for 2012. This amendment cut $1 billion from the Pakistan counterinsurgency fund, which is a form of military aid the U.S. provides to Pakistan. Unfortunately, this amendment was defeated.



Preventing the Taliban and al-Qaeda from resurging in Afghanistan is one of the most difficult foreign policy challenges we face. The Pakistani tribal regions along the Afghanistan border are a key area in our fight against terrorism, and I will continue to support the appropriate level of cooperation with leaders in Pakistan and work with them in the fight against the Taliban and al-Qaeda. As Congress considers future legislation pertaining to Pakistan, I will keep your comments in mind and will support a responsible foreign policy.



Thank you again for sharing your views. I am proud to serve California, and I am committed to working hard for you.

[RamaY]

From The News (posting in full). Are ambassadors allowed to say such things especially when the province in question is facing insurgency and revolt?
Balochistan is of importance to US: Munter

Hmm... so they are going with Option2 (posted before)?

Take Baluchistan so the alliance holds the sea routes. What about the land routs between west and east asias? The PoK statement in that line???

[RamaY]

The Haqqanis are not independents. They are ISI elements out of uniform. They are a part of the TSPA.

The Kunduz gang...

[anupmisra]

Karachi Bob at it again.
Plot to target ministers with perfume bomb foiled, says Malik
http://www.dawn.com/2011/08/04/plot-to- ... malik.html

Malik prepared a report after receiving intel from the spy agencies

Some "spy" in ISI is working very hard to make Malik look like an idiot (which by the way is not hard to achieve). I bet, after making that claim, Malik drove away in his bat mobile.

[BijuShet]

From The News - Opinion piece by a retd TSPA Brig. He believes TSPA is doing a better job compared to US army against the Taliban and that the US is deflecting blame from its shortcoming by pinning the reasons on TSPA's imcompetencies.

US performance in Afghanistan

Asad Munir
Thursday, August 04, 2011

The US administration has decided to suspend $800 million military aid to Pakistan. This is the latest step, in a series, taken by the US administration and their media to pressurise Pakistan, since the death of Osama. The US forces blame Pakistan for their own failure in achieving the assigned objectives in Afghanistan. However, the US administration needs to evaluate the performance of their forces in Afghanistan.

The initial US military objectives included the “destruction of terrorist training camps and infrastructure within Afghanistan, the capture of Al-Qaeda leaders, and the cessation of terrorist activities in Afghanistan”. Operation “Enduring Freedom” was not planned as per the assigned objectives. The initial UN Security Council resolution for the establishment of ISAF and the invasion of Afghanistan was restricted to “maintenance of security in Kabul and surrounding areas”.

The enemy’s possible reactions, requirement of troops, plans to capture of Al-Qaeda leadership, the possibilities of Taliban resurgence, and a possible resistance by Afghans, was apparently not taken into consideration during planning the stage. The top Al-Qaeda leadership remained in Afghanistan for almost three months and some for six months, after 9/11. The US forces failed to execute any plan to capture these leaders.

Initially only a thousand US Special Forces personnel were inducted in the war and the US largely depended on the Northern Alliance and other anti Taliban forces to eliminate Al-Qaeda and Taliban. They did not make use of Navy Seals to capture of Al-Qaeda leaders. In spite of all the modern surveillance systems at their disposal, they failed to locate Osama and Zawahiri, in any part of Afghanistan including their move from Jalalabad to Tora Bora in the third week of November 2001.

The Battle of Tora Bora was also not a well-planned and professionally executed operation. The Pakistani forces apprehended more than one hundred and fifty militants, who crossed the border from Tora Bora, while the US Special Forces captured none. If the Al-Qaeda leaders, including Osama, had been caught during that period, the situation in both Pakistan and Afghanistan would have been different.

The first major operation, in which a large number of coalition ground forces participated, was conducted from 1-16 March 2002, in the Shahi Kot Valley of Paktiya province. On intelligence reports, that about 150 to 200, Al-Qaeda and Taliban militants were regrouping in Shahi Kot, Opration Anaconda, was planned.

This operation was a debacle and will be remembered for faulty intelligence, miscoordination firing on own troops, change of plan during the battle, miscommunication, failure to provide planned air support, loosing surprise, failure of navigation systems, failure in insertion of troops at designated places and not achieving the laid down objectives. Instead of 200, the coalition forces confronted about 1000 militants and were compelled to fight a different battle than anticipated.

In third week of March 2002, foreign militants from Shahi Kot entered Waziristan in large numbers and terrorism was introduced in Pakistan. The US commanders were confident that they had cleared Afghanistan of Al-Qaeda. They had not anticipated the resurgence of Taliban and other Afghan forces. In the next many years, no major operation was planned to secure the Pashtun areas of eastern and southern Afghanistan.

The Iraq invasion shifted the focus of war on terror from Afghanistan. Al-Qaeda took advantage of this move and joined hands with Taliban, Gulbadin and Haqqani to start a resistance movement against the coalition forces. The US had to approach the UN Security Council again in October 2003, for authorisation to expand the ISAF mission throughout Afghanistan. During this period, Pakistani security forces, on intelligence provided by ISI/CIA, managed to apprehend about 400 Al-Qaeda members and their facilitators. If there had been no assistance from Pakistan’s army and ISI, the list of 20 Al-Qaeda leaders, identified by the US Defence Secretary Panetta, would have been more than fifty.

Due to inactivity of the coalition forces, the insurgency gained momentum and by 2006 the insurgents were controlling a number of Pashtun dominated provinces. In 2009, after remaining in Afghanistan for eight years, the US army commanders realised that they needed more forces to fight and control the insurgency.

To cover up their failure, the US has created an impression that Pakistan is not doing enough and that Pakistani intelligence continues to support militants who attack US troops in Afghanistan and actively undermine US intelligence operations to go after Al-Qaeda inside Pakistan. The US forces’ casualties since 2001 are 1531 deaths, while the Pakistan Army has suffered 3000 deaths and about 9000 wounded. The Pakistan Army has secured six districts and six tribal agencies and has conducted seven major operations as compared to three by the coalition forces.

The writer is a retired brigadier.
Email: asadmunir38@yahoo.com

[Vayutuvan]

...1. What Pakistan did was to bend over backwards to accommodate the cold war concerns of the US, helping to place India in the "soviet camp". Pakistan also played on China's fears of India to ingratiate themselves with China.
...
...
India is faced with two choices
1. Don't make war with Pakistan
2. Make peace with Pakistan

If there is any other good choice I would like someone to point that out to me.

Footnote:
If Pakistan is India's adversary, then the US and China will be India's foes
If Islamist militancy is India's adversary, the US and China will have common cause with India

1. We also had had a small part in putting ourselves in "Soviet Camp".
2. Third choice is to actively work towards a break-up of Pakistan. If such a situation comes to pass, the above two choices are undefined.

[disha]

1. We also had had a small part in putting ourselves in "Soviet Camp".
2. Third choice is to actively work towards a break-up of Pakistan. If such a situation comes to pass, the above two choices are undefined.

Was #1 by choice?

How do you actively work towards break up of bakistan? Help the bad taliban to become the good taliban or help the good taliban to become the bad taliban?

[disha]

To me that begs the question - why not attack them now and sort everything out?

Why attack and sort it out?

Of course the Jingoes will rise in chorus and say "jai ho" to such a thing and all that. But beyond keeping the jingo lobby happy, what will it achieve?

Given that it is evident that China does not want to offend its taller than apes fiend, it makes more sense for us to give them more room to make love. The more xinjiang boils, the more chinese perfidy in the eyes of the abduls causes more cognitive dissonance and more it will boil in its own stew.

http://www.hindustantimes.com/Foreign-n ... 29492.aspx., a nugget from the article

Chinese media reports this week, linking terror camps inside Pakistan to the latest bloodshed in Xinjiang, were quickly buried after the news hit the headlines in India. The official news agency Xinhua cited authorities in the Silk Road town of Kashgar claiming that suspects nabbed for blasts and knifing attacks last weekend were trained by extremist ringleaders based in Pakistan, which shares a border with the province. Chinese government advisers have also publicly spoken of the terror link, but there was no media follow-up on the angle.

[Vayutuvan]

Was #1 by choice?

How do you actively work towards break up of bakistan? Help the bad taliban to become the good taliban or help the good taliban to become the bad taliban?

You are right. While it was involuntary to a large extent, may be we could have done something. I don't know what.

"active steps" - covert ops to fan the "sprittist" flames. It is anybody's guess that the Pakistani aam janata is very highly discontent against the ruling dispensation - both the de jure (civilian) and the de facto (vardis). The thing is that something of this nature would not be possible in a country whose citizenry is content. If, as the good doc says, that 1971 like conditions exist today, all that is required is a spark which will result in another break-up.

[anupmisra]

Watch this space. This is bound to snowball into a big one.

That Pakistan Nuclear Expert May Be a Lowly Accountant

Did you check the date on that report?

My bad.

[SwamyG]

1. We also had had a small part in putting ourselves in "Soviet Camp".

What was our part?

[disha]

.... It is anybody's guess that the Pakistani aam janata is very highly discontent against the ruling dispensation - both the de jure (civilian) and the de facto (vardis). The thing is that something of this nature would not be possible in a country whose citizenry is content. If, as the good doc says, that 1971 like conditions exist today, all that is required is a spark which will result in another break-up.

Is it true that they are really discontent? The bakis I interact with are all ga-ga over bakistan, then there is the FM Donkey kong who is so blinged up that she is a walking advertisement of western haute couture, that her valuables on her arse itself makes upwards up US 1 lakh dollars. And then there is this tiny aam abdul who seems to be content with jihad if allah uski sabhi leelah and if at all they are discontent they are discontent with America not giving enough alms and think the Chinis are the next super pawars.

If they are sooo discontent then why they do not do what their ummah brothers are doing in syria or egypt? Nah, they are very content, yes 1971 like conditions exist, their economy is going back to 1971 levels with current populations and they seem to be quite content with it too. So what does desis do? Provide spark? Lot of it was provided when donkey kong came over.

[krisna]

Pakistan was created to establish an easy access to the middle east for control of oil and create a buffer against soviet expansionism (along with afghanisthan).
Hence pakistan was showered with love and affection like a bakri for sacrifice for future.
Now soviet is a defunct power, af pak is screwed up. buffer zone against soviet expansion has went towards the 5 stan (tajikistan,uzbekistan, kazakstan,krygstan and turkmenistan)in central asia.
Things are set in motion in middle east which may or may not be entirely under western control in the years to come. Iran is the big enemy now. It can be a spoilsport but not become a dominant power visavis GCC/Uncle.

surprising how things changed in persia/iran in 30-40 years from being US poodle to enemy primarily due to islamisation. The reverse happened in paksitan with islam bringing it closer to the satan and godless atheists.

Will things change for the worse or better- will pakistan with its internal churning going on become an enemy of uncle like iran in the last 30 years.

for Uncle-
1) primary goal has been achieved of removing soviet expansionism.
2) let lose a reign of jihadis which hit it hard in mainland causing more invovlement in af-pak
3) afghanisthan screwed in the process. TSP on the way too.
4) MENA in balance, iran the new enemy. Iraq in position not exactly as wanted by uncle. Egpyt/yemen/syria/lebanon in turmoil.
5) high likely TSP will go iran way
6) dlagon became a major power due to fuked policy of kissinger.

Primary objective at present is to get out of af-pak with little loss of face and shame. likely stay in the region for monitoring purposes and play superpower games.

Questions to be asked-
TSP will become an enemy of uncle surely
1) will usefulness of TSP still prevent uncle from unravelling TSP
2) dlagon role in superpower games and in MENA
3) Role of India. surprising that uncle and its acolytes made no mention of India early in the superpower games. Despite India not biting or barking, it is still a significant player because of its hanuman syndrome. A strong GOI can create situations for India’s benefit.

[Vayutuvan]

1. We also had had a small part in putting ourselves in "Soviet Camp".

What was our part?

SwamyG ji

This is all OT in this thread (and moreover it is ancient history, so last post)

Our voting pattern in the UN was either vote against US or abstain when it would have helped US. Of course, there were good reasons from Indian side and all that. That said, I am not the one who said we were in the "Soviet Camp". We were non-aligned. If US perceived it to be in "Soviet Camp", it is their problem, not ours.

[Philip]

Yes,the Pakis indeed have a serious "loco" problem.But the problem is not with the Paki "trains",but with the Paki "brains"!

As for Pak's favourite "punter" Uncle Sam;he has showered so much of goodies over the decades,billions upon billions,to his favourite rent-boys in uniform,and is so dependent upon his "fix",like a drug addict or DSK,cannot exorcise his craving and lust for his fix and boudoir tricks,no matter how many times he has an "overdose",picks up the pox or has to go into rehab.
Thanks to all its aid to Pak,Uncle Sam has actually caught "AIDS" from Pak, and has to take a cocktail of expensive drugs to stay alive in the region.

There is afamous Indian saying,"that a dog does not go back to it vomit".However,the Yanqui animal seems to thrive on it.

[Prem]

http://www.slate.com/id/2300825/
Kashmir's Raging Rivers
Can India and Pakistan overcome decades of mistrust to save the Indus Waters Treaty

Lilienthal recognized a truth that remains little discussed but as relevant as ever: The struggle for Kashmir was motivated in large part by Pakistan's desperation to control the rivers that flowed through the region. "The starting point should be … to set to rest Pakistan's fears of deprivation and a return to desert," he wrote. The treaty would defuse these tensions at a critical point in the young nations' relations, by clearly spelling out how much water each was entitled to use from the rivers that crossed the western border. The IWT gave "unrestricted use" of the basin's thee western rivers (the Indus, the Jhelum, and the Chenab) to Pakistan and the three eastern rivers (the Ravi, the Beas, and the Sutlej) to India. Today, the treaty governs the use of roughly 55 trillion gallons of water per year, which sustains more than 210 million people in the basin.
The Indus basin's overwhelming dependence on snow and ice melt has led Shakil Romshoo, a professor of geophysics and geology at the University of Kashmir in Srinagar, to conclude that global warming will destabilize the IWT within the next few decades. In Kashmir, "the surface runoff … is decreasing," he says. "And on this surface water depends the entire economy of PakistanAbout 80 percent of Pakistan's cultivated lands are irrigated by water from the Indus system, the lion's share being governed by the IWT. Of the IWT water, more than 70 percent of flows from the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir. The math gets worse for Pakistan: The country's population is projected to increase by 82 percent, from 184 million in 2010 to 335 million in 2050; per capita water availability was nearly 80 percent lower in 2005 than 1947, plunging from 5,600 cubic meters to 1,200 cubic meters, dangerously close to the 1,000-cubic-meter-per-person-per-year "water scarcity" threshold defined by the widely used Falkenmark index. A growing alarm in Pakistan over this hydrological straitjacket has in recent years spurred jihadi leaders based there to frame their attacks against India as a struggle to secure the rivers that form Pakistan's "lifeline."
( Now the hidden Ch..tiapa)

Talib predicts that ongoing talks between India and Pakistan will ultimately result in "a kind of joint collaborative approach to the basin's management." This might take the form of a new successor agreement to the IWT, as some analysts call for. A more likely scenario than total renegotiation, according to Talib, would be India and Pakistan signing an "extension agreement." In this event, the countries would extend the IWT in a separate, complementary treaty to include joint planning and oversight in the early stages of infrastructure projects on the six rivers—even across Kashmir's militarized Line of Control.Can the logic of enlightened self-interest—that is, a joint-management approach to the Indus waters—trump decades of mutual distrust?

[Prem]

http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/ ... -pakistan/
Lonely Pakistan

Dissed by the US, distrusted by India, and held at arm’s length by China: it’s hard to think of a country that needs friends more and has less success winning them than Pakistan. The latest news is that Ahmed Shuja Pasha, head of the ISI, flew on a “secret” trip to China. Some have suggested it was less of a trip and more of a summons, as a result of recent Chinese allegations that Pakistani-based terrorists are active in restive western China. As Ishaan Tharoor observes in TIME,
In reality, it’s still unclear what leverage against the U.S. Pakistan can genuinely gain by playing the China card. Beijing’s tendency to conduct its diplomacy quietly and out of view deepens the mystery, but it also obscures what may be a rather tetchy moment between the two neighbors.Pakistan’s most successful foreign policy venture in recent months appears to be allowing the embattled government of Bahrain to hire Pakistani mercenaries to bolster its security forces. This enraged Iran, but further endeared Pakistan to Saudi Arabia, perhaps the closest friend Islamabad has left.US-Pakistan relations continue to deteriorate, with Pakistan banning free movement of US diplomats in the country; nobody seems to know where all this leads.

( Arre Bhai Lonley nahi Looney Pakistan)

[Vayutuvan]

Is it true that they are really discontent? The bakis I interact with are all ga-ga over bakistan, ... If they are sooo discontent then why they do not do what their ummah brothers are doing in syria or egypt?

disha ji

There is difference between Syria and Paistan - Syria has far higher literacy levels and double per capita. Similarly Egypt. One requires a little bit of "sattuva" (I cannot properly xlate it from Telugu but it is roughly strength) to even revolt.

In Paistan, the cookie can crumble in two different ways - if Paistanis get a little more literate and get "enlightened" that they are getting screwed over by the RAPE, then they would revolt like Egypt or Syria. But at the rate their RAPE are going, this is unlikely to come to pass. The other is that some agency (or a mixture of internal and external agencies) riles them up against the current rulers. That is where lies an opportunity, me thinks.

[ramana]

gravitas

[CRamS]

Is it true that they are really discontent? The bakis I interact with are all ga-ga over bakistan, then there is the FM Donkey kong who is so blinged up that she is a walking advertisement of western haute couture, that her valuables on her arse itself makes upwards up US 1 lakh dollars. And then there is this tiny aam abdul who seems to be content with jihad if allah uski sabhi leelah and if at all they are discontent they are discontent with America not giving enough alms and think the Chinis are the next super pawars.

If they are sooo discontent then why they do not do what their ummah brothers are doing in syria or egypt? Nah, they are very content, yes 1971 like conditions exist, their economy is going back to 1971 levels with current populations and they seem to be quite content with it too. So what does desis do? Provide spark? Lot of it was provided when donkey kong came over.

I have to do a bit of equal equal here. Just as in India, the booming economy has benefited the middle class, and there is a huge, huge underclass that haven't seen the benefits; likewise, the dudes who go ga ga about TSP are the RAPE and middle class. The discontented ones are the average abduls. TSPA has firm control over them. Since the RAPE and middle class are quite happy, no chance of the kind of revolts in syria or egypt. And finally, don't forget, TSPA has kept New Delhi at bay, i.e., equal equal military parity with India, and this is a nationalistic crown jewel that kepes everybody in TSP happy (I surmise that 26/11 cemented TSP nationalism despite all of its other travails). If India can hit back and humiliate TSPA, which is doubtful. thats when we'll see a revolt. Alternatively, there is a slim chance that instead of current WKKIsm, India were to adopt a tough diplomatic stance, thwart off TSP's attempted terrorist punches, and continue to grow and leave TSP behind, then a chance of revolt is possible. But no chance right now.

[Prem]

U.S. Prepared to 'Snatch' Pakistani Nukes, Report Claims
http://www.nationaljournal.com/national ... s-20110804

It's safe to assume that planning for the worst-case scenario regarding Pakistan nukes has [already] taken place inside the U.S. government," ex-White House Deputy Counterterrorism Director Roger Cressey said. "This issue remains one of the highest priorities of the U.S. intelligence community ... and the White House."
The specifics of the planning for any potential "snatch-and-grab" scenario, including if U.S. Special Forces try to dismantle or eliminate the weapons, are a tightly held government secret, NBC reported.A U.S. Congressional Research Service report last month concluded that terrorists would have the best chance of acquiring a Pakistani nuclear weapon after the collapse of the government in Islamabad.The United States has worried about the security of the South Asian nation's atomic assets since before the September 11 attacks and has provided advice to Islamabad in the years since on best practices for protecting the arsenal, which is thought to number between 90 and 110 warheads.Militants in 2007 and 2008 reportedly attempted assaults on three Pakistani installations that house nuclear-weapon storage and production facilities.
Fears about the ability of the Pakistani security establishment to guard its nuclear arsenal and materials increased after the U.S. raid on Qaida chief Osama bin Laden's hideout in the town of Abbottabad in early May. The Pakistani military was further humiliated this spring by a Taliban attack on a naval base in Karachi.Current and ex-U.S. officials said that scenarios have been developed for responding to any major crises that could affect nuclear security in the South Asian state.

[abhishek_sharma]

What is cooking between the US and the Pakistani Army ? - Part IV

[shiv]

There is a general belief on BRF, not without reason, that all Pakistanis hate Indians. This is actually a fairly sensible assessment and if one wants a general idea of what "Pakistanis" think of "India" - then this would be an acceptable generalization. It would be foolish for an Indian to imagine that Pakistan is radiating love towards India.

But for reasons I will explain I have been trying to scratch the surface and look at the internal detail of the pro or anti India sentiment within Pakistan.

When I look for the results of the 1937 elections in India I get the following 2 quotes

Mr Jinnah the founder of Pakistan was not known to be a religious man till 1937 at least when his All India
Muslim League was literally routed in Muslim majority provinces of India getting just (7,319,445) the
League got only 321,772 Muslim votes out of a total Muslim votes of 7,319,445 a mere 4.4 percent. In
Punjab the League won just 2 seats out of 84 , in Bengal 39 out of 117,in NWFP none .Even in Muslim
minority provinces the Muslim League was not Muslims first choice except Bombay where it won 20 out of
29 seats.

and

And now the class aspect of Pakistan. Who voted in 1946 Elections for Muslim League or Congress. Most
of the people, particularly, women and lower class people, had no voting rights. These elections were
based on the extremely restricted franchise of the 1919 Act, and the total number of votes cast was only
586,647, representing almost exclusively the propertied classes.Stanley Wolpert notes that just 5 % of
Indias population voted in 1946 Elections.

..read the whole pdf..

Other reports indicate that the 1946 elections, in which the Muslim League won in Punjab and got 27 out of about 54 odd seats in Sindh were won using the Muslim vote. In other words Islam and the "Muslim" factor was successfully used in the 1946 elections.

What I find piskolgically fascinating about the pre-1947 elections is that the issues were not about Pakistan. The issues were about "Muslim first" (Muslim League) or India first (Congress). The "Muslim first" factor was successfully converted in a political twist into Pakistan. In other words if you put Muslim first rather than India first and voted for the Muslim League, you were assumed to be voting for Pakistan.

Quoting once again from the pdf linked above - here are the people who felt they would benefit from the formation of Pakistan

The higher class and the middle class Muslims in UP , Punjab , Bengal and Sindh saw it as an
opportunity to eliminate the Hindus and Sikhs from political , economic and employment competition.It is
well known that some 25 % of Hindu money lenders were in Punjab and the vast majority of Muslim
landlords in Punjab and Sindh were in debt to these money lenders.This factor prompted many Punjabi
Muslim members of the Unionist Party to change loyalties to the Muslim League in 1940-46.
The Muslim feudal and educated classes of Punjab and UP saw Pakistan as a place where they would
dominate the politics ,the business, the jobs and thus be the successors of British,The Bengali and Sindhi
position was very low in the Muslim League hierarchy dominated till 1936 by UP Muslims and by Punjabi
Muslims in partnership with UP Muslims after 1938.

Not all Pakis were rabidly anti India in 1947 - but the mohajirs who had voted for Pakistan in the UP and the Pakjabis of the 1947 massacres were probably the most rabid India haters.

It is impossible to say now in 2011, after 35 years of post-Zia ul Haq indoctrination, how many Pakis hate India. Even hate has to be taught. 40% of Pakis are under 15 years, and 50% are poor, 60% illiterate. That does not mean that they cannot be India haters. But we have no pointer as to the actual figures.

But Christine Fair's insight about how the Jamaat ud Dawa is seen in Pakistan should give us some idea of how Pakis feel about India. That does not give any cause for optimism. More than specific India hate - the Islamist flame is alive and well in Pakistan. As long as group like the Jamaat ud Dawa are popular in Pakistan, there is no hope for any Indian Pakistani reconciliation outside of a small group of WKKs making love with some greedy artistes and others from Pakhanastan. If anyone has any different information I would be happy to hear it.

[krisna]

Pak to give India MFN status

Pakistan has, in principle, agreed to give India Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status, a basic international trading procedure that has been languishing on the margins for the last two decades, but which will now allow both countries to conduct normal trade with each other.

Perhaps it was the stardust that Khar threw in the eyes of the media during her visit to Delhi, which caused both sides to miss the seminal reference to MFN status hidden deep inside the joint statement, issued at the conclusion of the bilateral conversation.

The Indian and Pakistani media seemed so overcome by the designer memorabilia adorning Khar — Roberto Cavalli sunshades, Birkin bag and South Sea/Mikimoto pearls — that it failed to comprehend the fundamental nature of the shift that seems to be taking inside Pakistan today.

Clause number 12 of the joint statement, then, refers to both ministers agreeing that an increase in trade and economic engagement between the two countries would be mutually beneficial.

According to highly placed government sources, this “non-discriminatory trade regime” is really an alias for MFN status, only Pakistan will never use that phrase.

Meanwhile, the Commerce ministry’s study on reducing the “positive list” of items that can be traded between India and Pakistan, seems to have also come to the conclusion that India, as the much larger economy, can easily absorb the consequent opening-up to Pakistan.

hope not soosai bummers and jeeehadists

In the meantime, Pakistan’s newspaper ‘Dawn’ reported that Pakistan had already decided to turn down the Indian offer to sell electricity because the power would reportedly come from the Kishenganga hydroelectric project in Kashmir, which Pakistan had already taken to the international court for arbitration.

“ India has massive electricity shortages but they want to sell some power to Pakistan. This will strengthen their claims in the court that they are producing cheap electricity and sharing the gains with Pakistan,” an official from Pakistan’s ministry of water resources was quoted by Dawn as saying.

Meanwhile, the Pakistani press is full of reports on how its economy is nose-diving. The overall budget deficit stands at 6.5 per cent of the GDP against a revised target of 4.7 per cent, and in the wake of the US cancelling $800 million worth of aid to Pakistan, officials in Islamabad are nervously wondering if they want to ask the IMF to revive its suspended bailout programme.

Under the circumstances, Islamabad’s purported rejection of buying electricity from India, ostensibly because the power project is in Kashmir, would amount to cutting its nose to spite its face.

wait till the agreement is signed on dotted line or else the mumbai blasts were in vain.

[Singha]

will be a humiliating comedown if they give MFN status and normalize trade with India.

would perfectly validate Shiv's statement that only integrating with the indian economy can save pakistan, not the 3.5