Telangana Monitor

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 19 Aug 2011 05:38

Possible outcomes

1. YSJ comes out clean. Big -ve for INC and TDP. Then INC will have to bend backwards to get him back into fold. Possible only if YSJ is 2G candidate all along.

2. YSJ goes to jail. INC has to part with YSR legacy.win for TDP and short term lose for INC

3. YSJ makes deal with INC and case is weakened. Advantage TDP.

Looks like INC wanted to part with YSR legacy for good. Both son and father will be sacrificed for the betterment of holy-god. Poetic justice for YSR family's EJ-badKarma.

Swasti...

Question: why is no one going to Lokpal on SG or RG? Is it possible to begin with?

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 19 Aug 2011 06:23

Narayana Rao wrote:The CBI is not working under High Court supervision. So it can do what it wants. No anti congress person in AP is going to vote for Janag and EJ will want him to be in congress before 2014 so that Italian rule continue. So eitherway I feel CBN and TDP is having serious advantage in costal and Rayalaseema districts at least. Just yesterday had a talk with a business man from Rayalaseema. It seems that KKR is also started his earning game and all ministers want to earn in the remaining two years as they are very sure that they will not win eletions in 2014. The hurry to join work by Telangana ministers may be for this earning reason.

I hope AP kicks congress out particularly in MP seats so that there is no UPA III

As per latest Nielsen survey published in India Today, here is the breakup in terms of seats (roughly translated from percentages).

Code: Select all

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
State              INC      INC Allies    INC(new allies)     BJP      BJP Allies    BJP(new allies)    Others    Total
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Andhra Pradesh     12       (MIM) 1           (Jagan)12        0            0           (TRS) 8        (TDP) 9      42
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The survey actually has given 37% to INC, 37% to Jagan and 20% to TDP. It did not even gave TRS percentage. What that means is there is 6% to be shared between all the others. I juggles and gave a portion from INC and Jagan to TRS and cameup with numbers. In addition it is simply impossible to have INC+Jagan = 74%

Though it is possible the numbers may be wrong as the survey is done when the things are totally messy and in flux, there is a lot more stuff is going on in AP than that meets the eye. The urban folks of AP are not really catching the ground. The rural landscape may be a lot different from a decade ago.

T-sentiment also may be on the wane per couple of surveys.

I also see a long shot chance of Jagan becoming CM and becoming part of INC with a total rollback of Telangana. There could be violence all around.

Regarding the CBI searches, vishalandhra has put a report saying that he is threatening to become approver and he is telling that he has copies of all government files. Already ministers and MLAs and other party members are wetting their pants in terms of their body language on the TVs.

Jagan becoming approver is not going to do a lot of harm to him but the congress party will get dumped into Bay of Bengal.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 19 Aug 2011 06:29

Muppala garu,

There is a wave for him in kosta in spite of EJism

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 19 Aug 2011 06:45

RamaY wrote:Muppala garu,

There is a wave for him in kosta in spite of EJism

Agreed. I understand that Jagan is a force and probably the contest is between Jagan and TDP.

The total christian population (EJ or not) may not be more than 18% even in a worst EJ affected district. One can get to such a number only after doing a 200% exaggaration. Internet is full of such exaggerations. In 2009 Congress (which is nothing but YSR) got 38% of votes. How in the world that Jagan gets 37% and INC also gets 37%? What are the achievements? I really don't think it is possible except that surveys go wrong in flux situations.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 19 Aug 2011 07:02

ramana wrote:Have you talked to farmers who take up farming on contract basis? ie kowlu? How are they faring inn these uncertain times? Their sowing season in rain fed areas is about one month. Are hey getting labor? And at what rates?

They dont get bank loans, they do not get any compensation. Labour is very difficult to find and payment is high may be 150 per day. With 2 Rs kg rice and rural employment payments they have no reason to work. In the end no one will purchase the crop even at support price because politicos are in the pockets of millers. So agriculture is no longer good option in AP.

I dont think the poll people got it right. There is no way TDP vote is getting limited to 20%. TDP got almost same votes as congress and entire anger onthe congress will benifit TDP only and Jagan will get congress votes mostly. I think congress will be lucky if they get 10 seats in MP. Jagan do not have leaders at MP level elections to get 12 seats are predicted.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 19 Aug 2011 07:59

The 3% APR loans (Pavala vaddi loans) are not trickled to the contract-farmers and the recent renter-policy made it even worse. Many areas in andhra announced crop holiday for this season.

Current dispensation under KKR is like no-governance compared to others' mis-governance..

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 19 Aug 2011 08:08

So farming is finished in AP.

unarayanadas · Post by **unarayanadas** » 19 Aug 2011 09:30

I often see the acronym 'EJ' in this forum but am not able to decipher it. Will someone please decode it for me? May I also point out that style guides recommend that an acronym should be written in full form the first time it is used in an article so that there is no confusion in the minds of readers.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 19 Aug 2011 09:39

EJ == Evanjihadis

short form for radical Evangelicals who preach hatred of heathens and pagans and have virulent tendency to proselytize using mafioso practices.

unarayanadas · Post by **unarayanadas** » 19 Aug 2011 10:29

devesh wrote:EJ == Evanjihadis

short form for radical Evangelicals who preach hatred of heathens and pagans and have virulent tendency to proselytize using mafioso practices.

Thank you. It's creative!

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 19 Aug 2011 11:32

From the news report and discussions on TV5 it seems that BJP has advised the T JAC to postpone further agitation until a favorable time presents itself. They are also of the view that Government servants whose jobs may be in danger should not be pushed into agitation when Delhi is indicating that they are not going give T state. It seems the JAC lead by TRS is not willing for any postponement as it will lead to dilution of the agitation and the momentum will be lost and can not be regained.

EJ followers are not more than 5% in any costal district. Further most of the them are SC and regular voters of congress. Congress plan seems to be

1. Attack Jagan through CBI etc
2. Attack CBN and TDP through T agitation.
3. Draft T agitation through talks etc and dilute it in long run.
4. Force T congress leaders to fall in line once the T agitation is diluted. In the meanwhile bye peace with them by not accepting MP resignations and not rejecting the same at the same time.
5. Gain greater control of the party through Botsa and garner a big caste group that is Kapus though Chiru, Bothsa, (and D Srinivas?).
6. Gain Shetty votes by Governor post to Rosayya.

But one think I don’t understand how they want to tackle TRS which is their own creation and which seems to be not listening to them. May be they want to have TRS as a strategic allay against TDP in the long run. In any event if the T agitation could be diluted then TRS will become insignificant.

kmkraoind · Post by **kmkraoind** » 19 Aug 2011 11:49

Narayana Rao wrote:But one think I don’t understand how they want to tackle TRS which is their own creation and which seems to be not listening to them. May be they want to have TRS as a strategic allay against TDP in the long run. In any event if the T agitation could be diluted then TRS will become insignificant.

As of Jagan way. For Congress TRS is an useful idiot, so that TDP can be taken care of (the systematic down trend of Congress is attributed to NTR's TDP for uniting all anti-Congress parties). As long as TRS if of nuance value, they will tolerate it, and once it crosses Lakhsamana rekha, they will bring on CBI, ED, IT and what not. Congress is keeping the record of all KCR collection details (probably that is why KCR never utters a hard word against Mafia mother and even calls her as Sonia talli (mother Sonia). Once KCR is tamed, a depression will creep out throughout Telengana and confidence and desire for statehood will not rise again for 25-30 year. Again next cycle starts. Previously it was Chenna Reddy, now it is KCR, tomorrow some XYZ.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 19 Aug 2011 18:44

Sushma Swaraj proclaimed that she would get out of Telangana agitation if there were to be another suicide for this cause.

Apparently there was one suicide (the young man called his family members to bid good by and said 'jai telangana' before laying on railway tracks) and another suicide attempt (another young man - some gowd - wanted to self immolate by pouring diesel on him in front of assembly? before police stopping him).

I hope Sushma Swaraj stands by her word in the parliament.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 19 Aug 2011 19:05

So BJP is realising it has no bone in the fight.
Good realization. Dividing Andhra is not good for Deccan.

unarayanadas · Post by **unarayanadas** » 19 Aug 2011 19:44

ramana wrote:So BJP is realising it has no bone in the fight.
Good realization. Dividing Andhra is not good for Deccan.

Hope BJP will also keep its '1 vote 2 states' slogan on the back-burner in 2014, the way it did Article 370, Ayodhya and Uniform Civil Code earlier.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 20 Aug 2011 00:42

ramana wrote:Have you talked to farmers who take up farming on contract basis? ie kowlu? How are they faring inn these uncertain times? Their sowing season in rain fed areas is about one month. Are hey getting labor? And at what rates?

I was always moving around with Hyd folks and mostly T folks and was missing the perspective of the farming community though I had some past connections during schooling. Interstingly over the previous weekend I happened to meet folks from Ongole and Guntur district. These are the children of the farmers.

The situation is really really bad for those farmers if they are from rain dependent areas. It is simple that there are no profits in farming in non-delta areas. Here are the few points he explained:

(1) Most of the small and mid-level land owners have leased out their lands and moved out of their villages to cities. A significant number got educated and took jobs in cities and many of them are settled abroad.

(2) The reason is there is absolutely no profit in farming.

(3) Even in the small and medium lease farmers ( called as Kavulu raithulu) are non existant

(4) Current method of farming is called as group farming but it is not really group farming by a group of farmers. There are some un-structured farming companies who can invest and mitigate risk as they invest in farming of the set of villages.

(5) As these are rain fed - the window of sowing seeds will be very low and they have to do in a short time frame. The cost of labor is ranging from Rs.350 to even sometimes Rs500 per day. (The guy whom I met even joked that it is probably a good thing to learn sowing seeds and a couple can earn even ten to fifteen thousand rupees living in a village. This is apart from NRGEA funds that they get.

(6) As per the guys whom I spoke there are no one who are doing either self farming or the old style lease-farming. It is just these big-unstructured-group farming. They give only 7000 rupees per acre per year. That is the lease value in the areas where so called most of Andhra-thieves live.

(7) Self farming is only is delta region (Portions of Krishna. portions of Godavari districts)

This is the plight of those who own the land. Imagine what happened to those who are doing farming by means of old-stlye-lease (kavulau?). They all perished. They are either become/becoming laborours, suicided due to loans or moved to their children's places (if they got educated and having jobs). The villages and communities as we know until 1990 are all changed for ever.

I after a long time met those who talk realities and practical stuff. (no old glorious historical stuff or false-pride due to extreme wealth). I see a lot of sadness over the turn of events and they honestly does not hate T folks. However, the T agitation seems have increased a lot of knowledge among the folks. One of the persons explained that the situation and mis-governance in AP is making it zero competetive with Karnataka, Maharashtra and TN. Extremely angry with Chidu and unfortunately almost anti-TN mood.

A lot of folks foresee that in future the land for farming will be less and production will be more as modern farming will come into existence. They see the importance of industrialization of arid-areas rather than keeping them with poor farmers. They all see that the group-farming will convert into some structured corporate farming in future. The farming and village structure of the past is dead.

In terms of politics, they see a significant demographic shift in villages due to farming style changes in the last decade. The opinion is that the number of seat in cities are still less than what they are for the population. The rural mass is just a lot of SCs and OBCs as several forwards castes and middle castes moved away to cities.

Whatever it may be but it is a different feeling for me meeting the countryside Andhra folks after a long long time.

Krishna_V · Post by **Krishna_V** » 20 Aug 2011 02:39

I was talking to my cousin who has few acres in krishna under sagar canal. he said this year no takers for lease (koulu)...

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 20 Aug 2011 03:49

ramana wrote:So BJP is realising it has no bone in the fight.
Good realization. Dividing Andhra is not good for Deccan.

BJP is deluding itself thinking that supporting T will make it a player in Telugu land.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 20 Aug 2011 04:35

It is now estimated that the corp productions will be at least 15% less this year. Many Godavari delta vilages have decleared crop boycott. Most of village floks are moving out in serch of work and livelihood. There are no reforms in agriculture at national level. Some of the steps like removing export restrictions to other states and other nations will make agri profitable business. Just like industry farmars should be in a position to see their corps anywhere in the world without any restriction. AP had a record crop last year and when asked to permit 10 Millon tons export Delhi has given 1 Millon ton permission after 4 months wait. In the meanwhile farmers had to sell their paddy crop at 650 when the minimum support price is 1000 plus. This is how Delhi rewarded AP for giving 33 MP seats to Congress. Please dont expect any person voting for congress in the next elections.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 20 Aug 2011 05:48

So touched a wasp's nest. Well farming is the life blood of AP people Even the urbanized were farmers one or two generations ago. So this really hits all AP people.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 20 Aug 2011 09:26

We are all into real estate business. Every one is either doing this business or investing in plots houses and appartments. Entire blocks of agriland is converted into plots and no cultivation. Many are coverted at least in places like Nellore into fish ponds. State became bankrupt because of the looting by every one. YSR really socielized corruption allowing every one who gives share to him to loot public and state. Most of the loot money now gone to real estate as it is easy to park black money there and returns are speatcular as everyone is madly behind this.

Now the FIR filed by CBI names YSR as one conspired to loot. Accued said to include Lagadapati son. Many minister family members have purchased lands at throw away prices from Jagan gang. If CBI digs the matter deep we do not know where it ends.

shravan · Post by **shravan** » 20 Aug 2011 09:38

Narayana Rao wrote:Many are coverted at least in places like Nellore into fish ponds.

Our ancestral land is also converted into fish ponds..near Gudivada

L Ram · Post by **L Ram** » 20 Aug 2011 10:44

shravan wrote:
Narayana Rao wrote:Many are coverted at least in places like Nellore into fish ponds.
Our ancestral land is also converted into fish ponds..near Gudivada

People who took these fish ponds on lease are incurring losses due to heavy competition in market. Some of them are thinking to return to normal paddy farming.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 21 Aug 2011 01:41

KLNMurthy wrote:
ramana wrote:So BJP is realising it has no bone in the fight.
Good realization. Dividing Andhra is not good for Deccan.
BJP is deluding itself thinking that supporting T will make it a player in Telugu land.

It is worse than that. Now they can't go pre-poll alliance with TDP to unite anti-congress votes.

If they can't perform well in Karnataka, their numbers will be reduced in the South. That makes them
rely on massive increase in North to form any NDA government.

They shot themselves or fell prey to machinations both in AP and Karnataka.

unarayanadas · Post by **unarayanadas** » 21 Aug 2011 09:19

The problem with the BJP seems to be, they are unable to read the public mood in AP. Their Telangana stance alienates them to the Seema-Andhra folks. If they think they can win some seats in Telangana because of their ingratiating stance they will be in for a rude shock. Their commitment to the creation of smaller states could well be genuine but in politics, it is perception that matters. Secondly, nobody is able to gauge the public mood in Telangana because, the fascist nature of the pro-Telangana agitation precludes anyone expressing a genuine opinion on the subject. Its leaders insist that the people of Telangana are 100% in favour creating a separate state - which claim, makes it highly suspect! In presidential 'elections' conducted by dictatorial regimes the ruling dictator invariably polls between 95% & 99% of the votes. The protagonists of Telangana claim that their case is even better than that!

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 22 Aug 2011 00:51

BJP leaders in non Telangana areas have no voice in the party. The Kakinada resolution of 1989 was shown to keep them quite. But many of them were (are) active in United AP agitation from the start that is even from 10th December 2009. Some of them were even part of the United AP JAC. ABVP in these areas is also for United AP. So there is also division in BJP about which no one is talking. It is because BJP is a irrelavent party in AP with less than 2% votes and because anything for UNited AP is blocked by Media because of fear of TRS and also because of the extreame left grip on the media

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 22 Aug 2011 04:10

New drama after T-drama!

29 MLAs and 2 MPs to support corruption king YSR. Corruption prince Jagan needs to buy may be 5 more idiots to collapse AP government!

http://www.deccanchronicle.com/channels ... -mohan-423

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 22 Aug 2011 05:43

ShyamSP wrote:New drama after T-drama!

29 MLAs and 2 MPs to support corruption king YSR. Corruption prince Jagan needs to buy may be 5 more idiots to collapse AP government!

http://www.deccanchronicle.com/channels ... -mohan-423

If the government collapses, AP will go to third poll with T unresolved. That is exactly the game written in 2002.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 22 Aug 2011 05:44

Great timing too. With Rajmata away, the Raj's rudderless only. At least the original Raj had a steel frame to carry out decision making and routine administration in the absence of the viceroy. But the spineless INC doesn't dare have one and has concentrated all decision making into dynastic hands only.

So if and when the hard decisions need to be taken regarding saving the AP govt by any or all means, who'll take the decision knowing full well that all blame will be heaped on them should things go awry only? (In INC system, only the teflon coated dynasty escapes all blame regardless of how responsible it may have been for disaster).

Surely, KKR will look to Delhi for 'guidance' and MMS will call govt breaking Jagan's efforts 'totally misconceived', no?

Also, again we see as with the Anna handling fiasco that the current crop of legal luminaries unwittingly pushed into decision making role in the INC (Chidu, Sibal, Khurshid, Singhvi etc) are relying ever more on police action (in this case, CBI action) to neuter-alize political crises. Unlike Anna though, even common janta in AP know Jagan is corrupt to the core. Q is do they care enough to let that influence their voting decisions?

Either way, interesting times ahead....

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 22 Aug 2011 06:15

Congress has played an even hand excellently. The resignations from congress mean that they can be removed from legislature before the strength in assembly. So 26 legislatures resigning is only loss of 13 to opposition.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 22 Aug 2011 06:20

Muppalla wrote:
ShyamSP wrote:New drama after T-drama!

29 MLAs and 2 MPs to support corruption king YSR. Corruption prince Jagan needs to buy may be 5 more idiots to collapse AP government!

http://www.deccanchronicle.com/channels ... -mohan-423
If the government collapses, AP will go to third poll with T unresolved. That is exactly the game written in 2002.

Need to watch if they collapse (good thing) or resign (drama). No-confidence doesn't collapse but confidence motion can.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 22 Aug 2011 07:34

either way, all that really matters is that EJ penetration will increase in the coming years. people know that Jagan is a corrupt factionist. but as long as he keeps doling our the subsidies and freebies, people will be fine. a majority of the govt employees will vote for Jagan. YSR has created a fanatically loyal block of voters among Non Gazetted Officers. as long as Jagan promises to continue with the double digit % increases/annum in benefits, all of them will vote. in '09 my close relatives who were govt employees held a gathering for all family members to advice them to vote for YSR. they ordered their kids (my cousins) to do the same.

I asked my aunt if she knew about YSR's background and his active support for EJ's including on the Tirumala Hill itself: she said "manam em chestam"? I said "vote veyyakandi". she said "vere vishayalu kuda untayi kada; anni alochinchi vote veyyalani nirnayinchukunnam".
("what can we do"? I said "Don't vote for him". she said "there are other issues too; after considering, we decided to vote for him".

sometimes, I think Bharat deserves to go the way of indigenous religion of Germanics. into blissful oblivion and consequent domination of foreign imperialism on homeland. we deserve it.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 22 Aug 2011 07:57

Unless there is huge no of MLA's resigning this AP governament will not fall. At present 29 said to join the drama they say it may go up to 40. Congress will be supported by MIM. TRS will help who ever gives them best amount and if they think elections are good form them. In any event there will be no no confidence motion in the Assembly as CBN will not move one unless he is certain that elections are good for him. He made a serious mistake in 2004 and he will not do that now.

Jagan comming to power in AP is unlikely. Core TDP vote is still there and many anti congress votes will not trust Jagan who is likely join Congress if it is suitable to him.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 22 Aug 2011 09:49

I will belive this Jagan stuff is not sort of Drama to get the Seemandhra vote behind him only if he manages to Get the Congress MP's behind him. He and Congress leadership know That thier goverence skill in AP has been exposed, so development has been taken off the agenda and pot is kept boiling on other issues till 2014. In the meantime a crafty plan is put in place to make sure TDP does not gain by Pro Telegana and Pro Andra lobbies.

I had predicted before the 2009 elections that Chiru was being funded by Congress to split the anti-incumbency vote has now been proven correct.

Dasari · Post by **Dasari** » 22 Aug 2011 20:57

Aditya_V wrote: In the meantime a crafty plan is put in place to make sure TDP does not gain by Pro Telegana and Pro Andra lobbies.

The inability of TDP to cash this is nothing to do with craftiness of Congress. We can try to give all kind of complicated reasoning, but the fact is Congress in AP is simply disintegrating. The unprecedented abuse of power and haste to nail Jagan is one indication of their despair.

If this was Tamilnadu, where Congress were DMK and TDP were AIADMK or vice versa, TDP would have wiped out Congress by now. But the fact is that CBN is a mediocre people leader (he may be great administrator or a political dealer) and nobody takes his words seriously. The longer he stays away from chief ministership, the more mediocre he looks. Inspite of all the hits that Jagan has taken recently, he is still the favorite to win seemandhra if elections are held today.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 22 Aug 2011 22:23

^^^
I see a possibility of a real patchup between INC and Jagan by making Jagan as CM. It will be a stepback for 2G but anyhting else is not going to work for them.

vishnua · Post by **vishnua** » 23 Aug 2011 03:42

Yep.. The CM thing may not be rightway..but definite possibility..

The deal could be Join congress and we will go easy wrt CBI raids.

Show us that you are real mass leader we will consider CM in 2014. He will be 41. So it may not be "too young" to be a CM

This is what I said few pages ago.

On Jagan,

INC is trying to do what Amerrkhan is doing to Pakis..

10% won't work with Madam. Jagan has to make "peace/comprisme" with madam and then will let him keep his loot (most of it) and might join the cong as well. They will sermon him look how long it took for you father to be CM. If you wait good things will happen in Cong.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 23 Aug 2011 08:23

Jagan’s jumbo jump: Wealth from Rs 77 crores to Rs 365 crores in 2 years

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 25 Aug 2011 02:08

365 crores??? between 2004 and 2009, Jagan's personal assets went from few crores to 5000 crores.

the above article is pure tamasha...

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 25 Aug 2011 22:00

As per TDP it is One Lac Crores. The leader of the CBI invertegation Mr Lakshminarayana is the same person who investegated YSR murder, Satyam scam, Rail paper leakage and belongs to Maharasta Cadre of IPS BE from REC Warangal.