China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

nits · Post by **nits** » 02 Sep 2011 11:49

Prasad wrote:Hey! Enough with the large inline pictures already! Not everyone has a T-1 internet connection! Edit them please and leave links thank you very much..

Btw, those bumps under the wings appear to be the actuators for the aeilerons. The picture of the aircraft beneath the one where its marked and you've asked the question clearly show that. Mainly the pictures from rear/side.

sure Sir; will note that in future post...

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 02 Sep 2011 12:24

Nolan wrote: ...it could also drastically change the air dominance and air superiority scheme within the Asia Pacific region,

Why do you think this? Everyone else who matters will have 5th Gen fighters too. Maybe better ones.

all this awe and "amazement" at China's "breakthrough".

For a Canadian, you don't know yanks very well it seems. Some guy is building up a case to expand F-22 and F-35 production in spite of the cost in the time honored style of creating a bogeyman. But I suppose that would make the Chinese feel pumped too, not that they shouldn't.

DavidD · Post by **DavidD** » 02 Sep 2011 13:14

shiv wrote:
Nolan wrote:
Did I say in any way it would be more credible because the author was American? I was just stating the fact that it was written by an American, nothing else implied.
Well many Chinese believe that American sources are more credible that Chinese sources and try to deflect criticism by saying "Chinese are not saying that, the Americans are full of praise/admiration/fear of Chinese tech" " Your statement falls exactly within that bracket, your denials notwithstanding. There was no need to mention the American author. Some of the comparisons are laughable because the F22 was designed 20 years ago and if the J-20 is comparable it is basically 20 plus years behind. Probably more.

I know Americans who are appointed as nominal MDs/CEOs of small Chinese private firms because an American face helps credibility. This is a Chinese problem. Not an American one.

That's not true, the most credible info come from the Chinese boards with their Chinese sources. The problem is that most people who don't follow the Chinese boards don't believe those sources and only believe more "reliable" western sources like say strategypage(

), so some Chinese posters feel compelled to post western sources on boards whose members predominantly do not follow the Chinese boards, e.g. this board. If you'll notice, I don't give a crap about that, I'll freely quote the Chinese sources I deem to be reliable no matter how much some on this board doubt their authenticity.

If you're into rumors, there've been persistent rumors of at least one more stealth/semi-stealth aircraft to fly soon, possibly before the end of the year. It seems like a semi-stealth striker to replace the JH-7 series is the most likely candidate. You may remember that someone capitalized on these rumors and posted a CGI pic of it a couple months back. It's interesting to note that while that pic fooled many people(even I thought it was likely real before checking the sources!), the big shrimps on the Chinese boards ALL agreed that it was fake from the start.

Indranil · Post by **Indranil** » 02 Sep 2011 14:13

Nolan,

The J-20 is indeed a very good machine ... but I could disagree with the author in many respects ... He passes himself as a know-all but actually his analysis is very very far from any in depth analysis ... in fact I learnt nothing new from it ... David (I think) had posted a nice article a few days back about the design choices made for the J-20 and how they handled the challenges and that (though slightly biased) was an extremely good read ... the Chinese must be complimented.

For example the only correlation he attributes with size is range! ... then some where down the line he says it doesn't look maneuverable otherwise but then given 3-D TVC (no source yet) and nearly 360 degree independently move-able canard etc (

) ... I mean are you serious ... why would somebody need 360 degree! ... at +/-90 degrees it will act like an air brake and nothing more!!! ... and could you give me an example of a plane where the control surfaces don't act independently?!!

I mean think of it ... and how does the world know that the J-20 is running on a WS-10B?! ... last I read they had airframes ready for j-1X but the engines not being ready ... the PLA was angry and huffing and puffing about the need to go to Russia for the engines ... the chief designer gave an interview where he laments the MTBF was very very low and it will take "considerable" more time to develop a reliable engine ... and within months you have the engine strapped to a prototype ... and people are even going further to say that it is not the WS-10 but a a deriavative of it!

And if you have a variable DSI, doen't it beat the whole purpose of not having service-prone movable parts?!

You see the author has just put together a conglomeration of rumours which have done the rounds ... he has shown no signs of him knowing any indepth knowledge ... I leave the rest to you.

HAving said all this ... it would only be hypocrisy (in my eyes) if we say that:
1. Indians are equivalent to the Chinese in aerospace ... I believe we are 5-10 years behind ... not because of talent ... but because of political will
2. That China CAN'T develop a good contemporary to western equivalents ... it's just a matter of a decade or so when they would have even good engines of their own.

I end my discussion here

.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 02 Sep 2011 14:52

Since every man and his uncle can do an analysis, here is mine, regarding the J-20.

Large aircraft with what appear to be features of mainly frontal stealth. The shapes and angle seem right.

There is no real information about materials
There is no real information about an AESA radar and its true capabilities
There is no information about the presence or absence of conformal radars/sensors other than the observation of bulges and pods. Their capability is unknown
There is little information about the engine
There is very little information about performance, range, payload
There is no information about intended role. A huge lumbering aircraft with two fat exhausts and 8 radar reflecting surfaces may be in trouble in air to air combat.

There is a huge gap between "looking good and capable" and being capable. So far we have more of the former and very little information about the latte.

This lack of information may suit the Chinese - but if the Chinese wanted to surprise their adversaries with a really secret weapon they need not have made the J-20 public at all and let satellite photos cause dhoti shivering. After all the US kept the F-117 really secret and even the Raptor is shielded from prying eyes as are the Indian carrier and nuclear sub project. The Soviets used to keep everything secret - hence the name "Iron curtain". Many weapons were only seen in parades or from spy cameras. So there has to be a reason why the Chinese have chosen to reveal what they have revealed so far.

As stated they have not revealed much. They have revealed enough to start speculation but not enough to either be credible or be dismissed. Under the circumstances a lot of the "analyses" that i see seem to be going far beyond what seem credible. For example the first non US AESA radars are just beginning to appear. Their capabilities are unknown - and these are from countries whose technology has dominated the world in other areas. Unless you have working/reliable AESA all these "stealth features' may not be as fancy as portrayed.

Engines like the British Avon (Canberra) and the GE J85 (F-5) had run tens of millions of hours decades ago and newer engines have notched up many millions of hours. One million hours is the same as 50 engines flying 2 hours a day for 27 years. This is not the sort of experience that is built up easily. But in the absence of such experience it is difficult to claim "success". So where are Chinese engines? It's not just about blisks, composite blades a honeycomb blade structure. Its the materials an fashioning. Not much information. But definite pointers to lack of experience.

Absence of information provides a gap that anyone can fill and since everyone fills it with what he fancies - I fancy pointing out that there are huge gaps in information that are being filled by speculation. Maybe that is exactly what the Chinese intend.

Nolan · Post by **Nolan** » 02 Sep 2011 14:57

Why do you think this? Everyone else who matters will have 5th Gen fighters too. Maybe better ones.

Before China? Who's everyone else, and how long would it take? I haven't even seen a prototype from anyone but Russia, but my estimate is the Russians will deliver at around the time the J20 goes in service, at best. After all, when did they ever deliver on time?
Is anyone else purchasing from Russia apart from India?

For a Canadian, you don't know yanks very well it seems. Some guy is building up a case to expand F-22 and F-35 production in spite of the cost in the time honored style of creating a bogeyman. But I suppose that would make the Chinese feel pumped too, not that they shouldn't.

I had "amazement" and awe in quotations for a reason.

What you are telling us the Americans are trying to do, I'm sure not all Americans are following suit, as some have dismissed it as rubbish.

As I've said, only time will tell.

Nolan · Post by **Nolan** » 02 Sep 2011 15:02

shiv wrote:Since every man and his uncle can do an analysis, here is mine, regarding the J-20.

Large aircraft with what appear to be features of mainly frontal stealth. The shapes and angle seem right.

There is no real information about materials

There is no real information about an AESA radar and its true capabilities

There is no information about the presence or absence of conformal radars/sensors other than the observation of bulges and pods. Their capability is unknown
There is little information about the engine

There is very little information about performance, range, payload

There is no information about intended role. A huge lumbering aircraft with two fat exhausts and 8 radar reflecting surfaces may be in trouble in air to air combat.
...

Engines like the British Avon (Canberra) and the GE J85 (F-5) had run tens of millions of hours decades ago and newer engines have notched up many millions of hours. One million hours is the same as 50 engines flying 2 hours a day for 27 years. This is not the sort of experience that is built up easily. But in the absence of such experience it is difficult to claim "success". So where are Chinese engines? It's not just about blisks, composite blades a honeycomb blade structure. Its the materials an fashioning. Not much information. But definite pointers to lack of experience.

Absence of information provides a gap that anyone can fill and since everyone fills it with what he fancies - I fancy pointing out that there are huge gaps in information that are being filled by speculation. Maybe that is exactly what the Chinese intend.

I guess time will tell. Right now, the best we've got from anyone are estimates or opinions even.
You can only tell so much through pictures, and I'm sensing that currently there are mixed views coming from everyone. Nothing is certain unless the Chinese choose to disclose more information.

Nolan · Post by **Nolan** » 02 Sep 2011 15:09

I guess time will tell. Right now, the best we've got from anyone are estimates or opinions even.
You can only tell so much through pictures, and I'm sensing that currently there are mixed views coming from everyone. Nothing is certain unless the Chinese choose to disclose more information.

But if I remember correctly, the Chinese don't make fighters like the J20 known, unless they have already done testing to some extent and at least has partial confidence in that thing. (Judging from the debut of the J-10)

If the "maiden flight" was actually its maiden flight, then the level of openness is pretty overwhelming, especially coming from the Chinese.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 02 Sep 2011 17:45

Nolan wrote: If the "maiden flight" was actually its maiden flight, then the level of openness is pretty overwhelming, especially coming from the Chinese.

It is pretty suspicious.

aniket · Post by **aniket** » 02 Sep 2011 18:49

It could be a diversion, to divert attention .It's like to protect it from prying eyes they could be showing off something that is an earlier prototype so that the current development goes on unnoticed and people divert their attention to speculating about the revealed version .

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 02 Sep 2011 19:42

Who's everyone else

In Asia-Pacific: India, South Korea, Singapore, Japan, Australia to start with. Ironically, 5th Gen is now (post Cold War) required ONLY in Asia-Pacific and ONLY against China.

my estimate is the Russians will deliver at around the time the J20 goes into service, at best.

That's different from MY estimate for the FGFA/T-50 to become operational a year or so before the J20 at worst.

After all, when did they ever deliver on time?

Ask the chinese. Every single one of their airplanes and engines without exception* is a Russian knock-off, including the J20, aka MiG-1.44.
* Added later: I forgot--the chinese copied the J-10 from the Israeli Lavi which was copied from the F-16.

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 02 Sep 2011 20:03

aniket wrote:It could be a diversion, to divert attention .It's like to protect it from prying eyes they could be showing off something that is an earlier prototype so that the current development goes on unnoticed and people divert their attention to speculating about the revealed version .

You give them far too much credit...

I don't know if it is only I who feels that way , but does not the lateral view of J 20 and J 10 look strikingly similar ?

ashi · Post by **ashi** » 02 Sep 2011 21:51

Nolan wrote: You can only tell so much through pictures, and I'm sensing that currently there are mixed views coming from everyone. Nothing is certain unless the Chinese choose to disclose more information.

That will be simply labeled as chincom propaganda/shanghai stats in here.

Many people will believe what they want to believe.

PratikDas · Post by **PratikDas** » 02 Sep 2011 22:45

That's right, you go ahead and form your opinions based on the length of the "shrimp" offering them.

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 03 Sep 2011 00:16

shiv wrote: Hey that weapons bay door opens very slowly.

C'mmon. That is elementary stealth exhibited even by my little kid when stealing cookie from the jar - you open ever so slowly. Chinese are really good at such basic stealth. It would be hypocrisy if we dont acknowledge that.

(btw, those hanging barn doors with serrations, the ones for rear wheels, they remind one of Mig29UPG take-of pichaars for some reason

)

I know Americans who are appointed as nominal MDs/CEOs of small Chinese private firms because an American face helps credibility. This is a Chinese problem. Not an American one.

That about sums up last page

wong · Post by **wong** » 03 Sep 2011 01:50

This thread is hilarious. You only have to go to page 3 to see why.

Sample highlights from page 3 from the same people talking about the J-20 back in January.

hnair:
"chalk marks for weapons doors"

shiv:
"No David no. Those are not doors. They are panels that cover up places where doors might be placed in future."

Such confidence with the "facts". Then as now.

negi · Post by **negi** » 03 Sep 2011 03:21

The slow opening door bay is there for a reason i.e. to allow enough time for the sluggish ejector to dispense the weapon in time.

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 03 Sep 2011 03:38

ooh attention of Led Lips kind. hnair says "A peal of spring thunder has crashed over the land of China" or some such so-called historic bullshyte.

And you are welcome!

ashi · Post by **ashi** » 03 Sep 2011 06:45

Victor wrote: Ask the chinese. Every single one of their airplanes and engines without exception* is a Russian knock-off, including the J20, aka MiG-1.44.
* Added later: I forgot--the chinese copied the J-10 from the Israeli Lavi which was copied from the F-16.

Why don't you ask the Russian?

MiG denies stealth technology transfer to China for J-20 fighter

Russia has never transferred any stealth technology to China to assist it with its J-20 Black Eagle fifth-generation stealth fighter prototype, Russian plane maker MiG said on Friday.

"We are not delivering any equipment to China, and never have," MiG spokeswoman Yelena Fyodorova said.

MiG's statement follows claims in the Russian and foreign press last week that China's J-20, unveiled over six months ago, is based on technology and components from the Russian Mikoyan Article 1.44, a stealth technology demonstrator aircraft, development of which was suspended.

Nolan · Post by **Nolan** » 03 Sep 2011 07:46

In Asia-Pacific: India, South Korea, Singapore, Japan, Australia to start with. Ironically, 5th Gen is now (post Cold War) required ONLY in Asia-Pacific and ONLY against China.

I have yet to see even a prototype from anyone else but Russia. So the question now is (assuming the Russians will deliver on time) how does the PAK FA stack up against the J20?

How many units has India purchased? Or is looking to purchase?

Ask the chinese. Every single one of their airplanes and engines without exception* is a Russian knock-off, including the J20, aka MiG-1.44.
* Added later: I forgot--the chinese copied the J-10 from the Israeli Lavi which was copied from the F-16.[/quote]

Until proven, I think that's only your suspicion. The Russians denied any technology transfers to the Chinese regarding fifth gen fighters. It's basically an impossible task to "copy" a fifth generation fighter through just photos and videos, getting it to fly alone wouldn't be any more difficult than creating a new design that can fly, since the slightest difference/mistake in the "copying" process could produce catastrophic results, any slight change at all would require a series of changes, so the chances of that is quite slim.

Nowadays stealth shaping and aerodynamics is the easier part, relatively speaking; what's inside matters just as much, and that part one cannot copy, and as far as I know, fifth-gen technology is top secret. Nobody is willing to provide the know-how or supplements to the Chinese for the electronics inside, unless they are insane.

Which is why I made the statement that it is only a matter of time before we find out whether the J20 is real or bluff.

Nolan · Post by **Nolan** » 03 Sep 2011 08:04

The J-20 is indeed a very good machine ... but I could disagree with the author in many respects ... He passes himself as a know-all but actually his analysis is very very far from any in depth analysis ... in fact I learnt nothing new from it ... David (I think) had posted a nice article a few days back about the design choices made for the J-20 and how they handled the challenges and that (though slightly biased) was an extremely good read ...

I agree with most of what you've said, the main points the article highlighted were already known. What seems interesting to me is the suggestion of an "adjustable DSI system", I have had questions about the different left and right intakes on some photos as well. Anyone here that can understand Chinese? Or can go on Chinese forums? Just thought they'd probably have more info. Or are the info being spread around quite similar? I've tried following the J20 on Facebook, but what's posted seems to be mainly consisted of images, nothing regarding specs.

Nolan · Post by **Nolan** » 03 Sep 2011 08:16

aniket wrote:It could be a diversion, to divert attention .It's like to protect it from prying eyes they could be showing off something that is an earlier prototype so that the current development goes on unnoticed and people divert their attention to speculating about the revealed version .

"Earlier prototype"? I don't think the Chinese are this advanced yet regarding fighter jets, the J20 or something similar of sorts is probably the best they can pump out.

I've yet to see any credible proof worth believing that suggests something else is in the works.

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 03 Sep 2011 08:26

Well Nolan , as far as T-50 is concerned India is likely to buy 250 of them. Though the Indian versions will be different from the Russian versions. India has joined Russia as a partner for this one and is providing the electronics and the software. However the main reason for joining is to learn the art of fighter jet manufacturing from the best in the world right from the conception of the program.

The wind tunnel model of the Indian AMCA (indigenous 5th) is ready . Money has been (or will be shortly) provided for further development.

The reason why the Russians denied tech to the Chinese is because they did not want Chinese versions of the fifth gen fighters to be proliferated through out the world. I mean , look at the Chinese version of Su-27 . It is an exact copy . The Chinese have copied Mig-21 and sold it to everyone from porkies to rogue Africans. Why would Russians want to reduce their own profit ? Having said that , some Russians are suspicious of rogue Mig engineers having sold 1.44 blue print.

Having said that , Chinese have bought off rogue engineers from foreign companies. As far as LAVI is concerned the Israeli's even acknowledged the fact. And Lavi is officially based on f-16. Lockheed partnered with the Israeli's .
There is the reason why no one sells to the Chinese . 1988 massacre is just an excuse. I mean people did not mind selling to the Pakis in spite of all the massacre's they committed .

milanforever · Post by **milanforever** » 03 Sep 2011 19:16

Sorry for my English. Just read the following on Chinese military forum, from one guy who predicated detail of J-20 accurately in early 2010. According to him,
1) The two existing prototype of J-20 are using Russian engine, not Chinese engine.
2) WS-15, which has TVC and thrust-to-weight ratio over 10, is being tested right now. It will be installed on J-20, prototype # 2004, in 2013. J-20 will use WS-15 when it enters services, which will be end of 2016 or early 2017.
3) The design goal of J-20 is air superiority fighter, not multi-role. The current prototype length is 20.3m
4) Another 4th generation fighter will start test flight soon, around the end of the year. It's developed by another institution in ShenYang (SAC). It's slightly bigger than J-20, no canards, more of multi-role (anti-ground or anti-sea strike) compared to J-20. It's also two engine, will use WS-15 when it enters service.
5) AESA has been tested and is ready. Both J-20 and the other 4th gen fighter will have it.
6) during early stage of the Chinese 4th generation fighter design, in 90s, China and Russia did work together, but it ended in late 90s.
7) After USSR collapsed, some Russian engineers were hired by Chinese. Some of them already got Chinese citizenship, and have children in China.

Don · Post by **Don** » 03 Sep 2011 21:02

manum wrote:One thing we must also notice that...there is huge unorganized sector in India which is totally not accounted for what they earn...they they seem to be living in modesty...

Indian GDP is way larger than it is projected...There are many sectors in our cities in towns, where government dont even has guestimate of earning of Individuals...

For this we'll have to get into tax reforms and have a transparent, simple policy and accountability...and real figure will emerge, which can be baffling for many economies who think they are superior...
But It'll also show the darker side of how many Indians need care and attention to live a satisfactory, rightful life...  China must have observed what happened in India wrt. Anna demonstrations...hopefully Chinese should start doing something likewise...It'll be nice to see government reaction.

India Compares Best to Indonesia

http://news.yahoo.com/india-compares-be ... 27791.html

India's economy has slowed to a 7.7% quarterly growth rate at latest report, having hit up against several limits—nasty inflation and the tighter money to combat it, redolent corruption and a seeming official hesitance to confront it, and political stagnation with no prospect of soon changing it.

Yet this can be a pivotal year for India, for it to emerge with a clearer resolve if not yet a result. But isn’t the relevant benchmark really more Indonesia than China? Especially now that Indonesia itself has stirred again, these second and third most populous nations of Asia share more in common than either does with authoritarian China.

manum · Post by **manum** » 03 Sep 2011 21:32

Don wrote:
manum wrote:One thing we must also notice that...there is huge unorganized sector in India which is totally not accounted for what they earn...they they seem to be living in modesty...

Indian GDP is way larger than it is projected...There are many sectors in our cities in towns, where government dont even has guestimate of earning of Individuals...

For this we'll have to get into tax reforms and have a transparent, simple policy and accountability...and real figure will emerge, which can be baffling for many economies who think they are superior...
But It'll also show the darker side of how many Indians need care and attention to live a satisfactory, rightful life...  China must have observed what happened in India wrt. Anna demonstrations...hopefully Chinese should start doing something likewise...It'll be nice to see government reaction.

India Compares Best to Indonesia

http://news.yahoo.com/india-compares-be ... 27791.html

India's economy has slowed to a 7.7% quarterly growth rate at latest report, having hit up against several limits—nasty inflation and the tighter money to combat it, redolent corruption and a seeming official hesitance to confront it, and political stagnation with no prospect of soon changing it.

Yet this can be a pivotal year for India, for it to emerge with a clearer resolve if not yet a result. But isn’t the relevant benchmark really more Indonesia than China? Especially now that Indonesia itself has stirred again, these second and third most populous nations of Asia share more in common than either does with authoritarian China.

I disagree with comparison for many reasons...but I think its OT, so please spare me. Thanks

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 03 Sep 2011 22:50

wong wrote:
shiv:
"No David no. Those are not doors. They are panels that cover up places where doors might be placed in future."

Such confidence with the "facts". Then as now.

If you have doors you need to open them before you can call them doors.

Also now that some doors are seen you have to show missiles inside to show that these are not fake. Please note the date and time of this message and post again after showing some munitions inside. Those doors open so slowly that the plane will get shot down before any munition can come out

It needs to work much faster than that.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 03 Sep 2011 22:57

milanforever wrote: 3) The design goal of J-20 is air superiority fighter, not multi-role. The current prototype length is 20.3m

Hmm. Interesting.

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 03 Sep 2011 23:04

India Compares Best to Indonesia

Pandaland compares to NoKo or .....stan

wong · Post by **wong** » 03 Sep 2011 23:50

Shiv, your analysis of the weapons door defies logic. The hydraulics for the canard and other control surfaces obviously work fast enough, but not for the doors?? It's clearly dual speed for safety reasons. A very Germanic touch. All those millions of Audis/VWs in China must be having a design influence.

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 04 Sep 2011 07:38

China will impact Bay of Bengal soon

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 04 Sep 2011 09:06

wong wrote:Shiv, your analysis of the weapons door defies logic. The hydraulics for the canard and other control surfaces obviously work fast enough, but not for the doors?? It's clearly dual speed for safety reasons.

It defies your logic because I demand that it be proven that it works fast and is not a Chinese bluff. For any information that comes out of China my attitude is:
1. It could be true
2. It could be bluff

I simply will not take anything from China at face value. The Chinese hide what is insulting to themselves and reveal what they feel will earn them admiration. There is no need to let my attitude be your problem any more than I allow your objections to cloud my viewpoint on this.

My earlier point stands. I may be forced to change my view if the information changes - but until that happens my view is under no obligation to change.

For example. Look at the Pakistan helicopter force. Pakistan uses Cobra helicopters, Alouette II. Fennec, Lama, and Mi-8/Mi-17. Where is the Chinese input other than spares for Mi-8? How come China is unable to supply Pakistan with its long line of indigenous (?) helicopters? Pakistan is using 2nd gen and 3rd gen Western helicopters. Check what the Myanmarese helicopter force is.

Now we have a problem. Here are some Chinese who proudly highlight a "Fifth generation fighter". China is now only making its third generation of fighters. The A-8, J-8 or F-7 knockoffs were "First generation China tech" based on second or third gen Soviet tech (MiG 19/MiG 21). J-10 is China second generation - in service (based on Lavi/F-16 - 4th gen US tech). J-20 is China third gen - yet to enter service. But I will ignore this fallacy and ask how come a country that has not reached world standards in rotary wing aircraft is now claiming state of the art in fixed wing aircraft? And that too before it enters service. There is a credibility gap here. In other words there is a bluff lurking there somewhere. I will stop calling it a bluff when the stuff appears and performs. Until that time I will watch and question. if this defies your logic, that's tough. You do not have to try and explain my logic to yourself if it bothers you. I am allowed to question anything and will continue to be a skeptic.

chiragAS · Post by **chiragAS** » 04 Sep 2011 11:06

from the pic of J-20 as shown by a link to worldaffairs board. have you noticed
the crew/technicians wearing cloths which has English letters AVIC

i can't see any chinese letters in it. may be i am getting blind with all this glare of my pc screen.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 05 Sep 2011 12:20

There are some inescapable truths that must be first understood before we get down to assessign the threat from China and actual capability of its weapon systems.The heavy defeat of China when it invaded Vietnam (that too during a visit to Beijing by ABV then FM) by the battle-hardened Vietnamese soldiers,who had earlier sent the mightiest superpower home in full ignominious retreat (remember the fall of Saigon?) with its tail firmly tucked between its legs,taught it a singular lesson.Deng's "4 modernisations" campaign especially that of modernising the miltary became the most important priority for the Chinese.They could not afford to lose face again.

WHile the world slept for 25+ years ,the Chinese have been relentlessly modernising and expanding their military in leaps and bounds,leapfrogging obsolete technology wherever they could by "begging,borrowing and stealing".The latter activity brilliantly performed by thousands of Chinese "tourists" and "workers" abroad,actually spies for China acquiring noth military and industrial secrets.The Germans ruefully reported a few years ago that Chinese employees/visitors for just a few weeks had stolen massive amounts of intel,amounting to at least several $ billions.During the Clinton years,where he winked at PRC espionage and nuclear proliferation,the US reluctantly acknowledged that the PRC had most probably acquired almost every US nuclear weapons secret from Lawrence Livermore labs,thanks to a Chinese scientist who was publicly embraced by the top Chinese intel general back home!.A decade+ of first buying then reverse-engineering Soviet and Russian hardware,plus clandestine sales to China by Israel and other western nations for hard cash,saw the PRC suddenly emerge as a manufacturer of top class,perhaps not cuttng edge,but close to,of aircraft,rockets and missiles and warships and subs.In the field of missiles across the board,China has made massive strides.It now is self-sufficient in AAMs,ASMs,anti-ship missiles,and long range cruise missiles which can also be launched from its many indoigenous sub designs,including AIP systems,of which 6 Yuan class AIP subs along with PLAN LR cruise missiles which can have nuclear warheads are in the pipeline for Pak.

The transformation of a once touted "floating casino",the ex-Soviet Varyag into a fully equipped modern 60,000t carrier has shocked the world.As AWST has said in a recent article about its arrival,"get used to it"! China is going to "show the flag" and project power right across the Asia-Pacific region and the Gulf and the PLAN will "drop anchor" in all the Afro-Asian states where it is using its money and muscle power to garner favourable rights for raw materiual and trade in exchange forcopious aid. The PRC military is now doing a "strip tease" with the purpose of titillating the world's nations and enjoying watching their jaws drop at its military prowess.The unveiling of its "5th-gen" fighter was another rude shock,as many western pundits had boastfully predicted its arrival only by 2020!

To add to its unrelenting military expansion and modernisation,where by 2020 the PLAN will have between 80-100 modern subs alone,it has been exceptionally active on the diplomatic front,entering into agreements with IOR littoral states for base and logistic facilities in Burma,Lanka,B'Desh,and in Africa apart from the naval base being built by it for Pak at Gwadar.The Tibetan railway has now been revealed to be primarily a military conduit for speedy transportation of troops into Tibet,into POK and beyond to the Gulf through Pak .India has been rudely woken up to the fact that China has encircled it almost completely and the threat we now face is that of the "joint factor" of the Sino-Pak axis in all military sphere including that of N-deterrent.Sadly,the regime of MMS has put too much emphasis upon the "strategic ties" with the US,mistakenly imagining that it would come to India's rescue in the event of an Indo-Sino crisis,completely forgetting that the Sino threat includes joint operations and jont strategic and tactical plans with Pak.India underestimating the PRC threat is the understatement of the day.

milanforever · Post by **milanforever** » 05 Sep 2011 19:48

I think the issues between China and India are a bit exaggerated. For the most important part, the border issue can be solved by negotiation. Similar problem existed between Russia and China but it was solved peacefully.

To Chinese government, taiwan and south china sea are far more important. As things stand right now, both PRC and ROC in Taiwan seem content about the current situtation, but how it goes largely depends on the stance/policy of the new leader of Taiwan. In south China sea, it's not clear how things will pan out in future. It's crystal clear that PLAN and PLAAF are both preparing actively and spending heavily for potential future conflict in that area, for oil and gas resource reason.

It's totally understandable for people here to feel suspicious about the J-20 or other Chinese achivements. After all I was shocked too. As an average Chinese who doesn't live China for several years, I was quite happy to see J-10 came into service and felt proud even knowing that it's 20+ years later than F-16. The existence of J-20 is far and away beyond my expectation. Now there are rumors that there will be another 4th gen figher starting test flight in a few months. I'll wait and see if it's true or not.

SKrishna · Post by **SKrishna** » 05 Sep 2011 23:40

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/05/opini ... r=1&src=tp

In the words of the ancient military theorist Sun Tzu, China is acquiring the means to “win without fighting” — to establish itself as Asia’s dominant power by eroding the credibility of America’s security guarantees, hollowing out its alliances and eventually easing it out of the region......

This is a problem that cannot simply be smoothed away by dialogue. China’s military policies are not the product of a misunderstanding; they are part of a deliberate strategy that other nations must now find ways to meet. Strength deters aggression; weakness tempts it. Beijing will denounce such moves as provocative, but it is China’s actions that currently threaten to upset the stability of Asia.

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 06 Sep 2011 01:41

milanforever wrote:I think the issues between China and India are a bit exaggerated. For the most important part, the border issue can be solved by negotiation. Similar problem existed between Russia and China but it was solved peacefully.

Yes you are right, the exaggeration is being done by China only. The negotiations will work , if India agrees to all of China's demands.

jai · Post by **jai** » 06 Sep 2011 02:31

milanforever wrote:I think the issues between China and India are a bit exaggerated. For the most important part, the border issue can be solved by negotiation. Similar problem existed between Russia and China but it was solved.

It's totally understandable for people here to feel suspicious about the J-20 or other Chinese achivements.

Yeah right ! The border issue will only be solved in negotiation when India can match the Chinese military power, never otherwise. India has been trying negotiations but the Chinese are not interested in solving issues, they want to keep them hanging on, check the history.

"My way or the highway" is not a negotiation approach, it's called bullying.

The border issue with Russia was "solved" because the Russians had moved 60 divisions to the border and were about to over run the borders, there is learning in this for india - stop wasting time on negotiations because it will not work till we have a thousand missiles deployed covering the "great nation".

You are damn right we are suspicious, after all, you taught us in 62 that we can trust you only at our peril; "Hindi-chini bhai bhai notwithstanding.

First, let your actions match your words, no point negotiating or saying your intentions are good when your govt is amassing military on our borders and in our territory of gilgit / baltistan.

DavidD · Post by **DavidD** » 06 Sep 2011 09:46

SKrishna wrote:http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/05/opini ... r=1&src=tp

In the words of the ancient military theorist Sun Tzu, China is acquiring the means to “win without fighting” — to establish itself as Asia’s dominant power by eroding the credibility of America’s security guarantees, hollowing out its alliances and eventually easing it out of the region......

This is a problem that cannot simply be smoothed away by dialogue. China’s military policies are not the product of a misunderstanding; they are part of a deliberate strategy that other nations must now find ways to meet. Strength deters aggression; weakness tempts it. Beijing will denounce such moves as provocative, but it is China’s actions that currently threaten to upset the stability of Asia.

It's not threatening to upset the "stability" of Asia, but the status quo instead. The President of the Philippines just walked away from China with $13 billion of deals--the stability is just fine, who wants to stop making money?

PratikDas · Post by **PratikDas** » 06 Sep 2011 11:37

Yes, DavidD, we'll take your word for it.

VinodTK, a tip of the hat to you.