Managing Chinese Threat

[RajeshA]

China claims South China Sea, warns India against exploration

Continuing from PRC Thread

Interesting times in South China sea
http://www.hindustantimes.com/China--ob ... 45854.aspx

IMHO India should stay under the radar on this issue. There should be an institutionalized India-China strategic dialog mechanism. The success will depend upon China's accommodation of Indian interests in Af-Pak, J&K and Arunachal.

Pranav ji,

I think the time is approaching to go on the offensive. If India retreats from South China Sea, we would be sending a very very wrong signal to our partners in East Asia like Vietnam, Indonesia, etc. that when China growls, India will retreat. Without firing a shot, China would have forced India to cower down. That would mean the other countries too would give in to Chinese intimidation.

When however China goes on the offensive against India, we will have no friends, no other countries who would trust India to stand by them.

We should start showing the middle finger to China. Remember India accommodating China on Tibet vs their recognition of Sikkim as part of India. Even after that there were plenty of noises coming from China, they don't recognize Sikkim as part of India, and they gave no recognition on Arunachal. All these accommodations on J&K, Arunachal, etc. from China mean nothing. The paper on which they sign, is not even worth as toilet paper.

We are in for a very bumpy ride, and there is no use hiding behind appeasement. They attack one of our boats in South China Sea, we should sink two of theirs in the Indian Ocean. Their access to Indian Ocean should be dependent on China accepting South China Sea as international waters or where of the other littoral states like Vietnam.

If we retreat one step on this, we will keep on retreating for ever and ever. The world does not recognize South China Sea to be Chinese territory, why should we?

Our whole credibility as a future power, the whole balance of power in Asia is here on the line. China can give us no sufficient accommodation. May be if they vacate Tibet, but well that would be laughable.

In fact, if Vietnam and India are intimidated, we should offer Vietnam the possibility of creating some form of Confederation, which would allow India to deploy our nuclear missiles in Vietnam itself.

[Pranav]

Continuing from PRC Thread

IMHO India should stay under the radar on this issue. There should be an institutionalized India-China strategic dialog mechanism. The success will depend upon China's accommodation of Indian interests in Af-Pak, J&K and Arunachal.

Pranav ji,

I think the time is approaching to go on the offensive. If India retreats from South China Sea, we would be sending a very very wrong signal to our partners in East Asia like Vietnam, Indonesia, etc. that when China growls, India will retreat.

As they say speak softly but carry a big stick. Let's not forget that Nehru's collaboration with the CIA led to deterioration of ties. At the same time Nehru was weakening the Indian Army.

Even today we cannot get rid of our Dhimmitude, we are afraid to become a thermonuclear power.

Meanwhile an India-China entente could be the geopolitical game changer. But we should remain focused on our core interests in Af-Pak, J&K and Arunachal and China needs to accommodate Indian concerns. Meanwhile there are many ways to help the Viets acquire the capability to defend their own legitimate interests without getting involved ourselves.

[Atri]

just thinking out loudly. thoughts unstructured.

There are streams of popular indian english media. NDTV by Kaandgresss. IBN by NCP on regional level and UPA on national level (not necessarily kaangress always), timesnow (times group as whole) by US interests. Hindu group by communist interests, but it does have retained some fiercely independent streak.

The chinese aggression news always appear in US backed times group. It is arnab who hyperventilates the most on these issues (Pakistan, china, the purulia arms drop case where it was only arnab who ran the story). How come other news houses "miss" such important piece of news, hain ji? is it kaangres suppressing such "important events" or is it US aggressively promoting few "non-events"? Or both..

If some conflict arises, it can save MMS (rather UPA) only when it is a limited scale war on Indian border (preferably Ladakh sector for highest media coverage as it would then entail TSP as well). the limited mobilization and conflict in south china sea will not give as much press coverage to UPA and partially cleanse their tarnished image. Most of Indians give two hoots to anything except Kashmir (look at the reaction to land-swap and Bhudaan movement initiated by MMS vis-á-vis BD and SL. No reaction). MMS is talking about "ironing out" the uneven borders with China which is again a hint at a large scale Bhudaan to Chinese.

It seems the pro US lobby in Indian establishment (which RajeshA garu calls as Singapore school of strategy) is operational to stop GOI from making this move. People like Dr. Subrahmanyam Swami, Dr. Rajiv Malhotra (Breaking India fame) are probably from this lobby too. Others like our "uber comprehension man", C. Raja Mohan too are from this school. Perhaps MMS himself is partially from this school. Now there are two lobbies in US itself. Pro EJ lobby and pro "america" lobby. It seems that the pro america lobby is slowly getting convinced that "India" needs to be preserved. It is also likely that they might reach to the conclusion that India == hindu. the picture is still muddy (for me, at least) on both sides.

[abhishek_sharma]

China intruded into Ladakh, confirms official report

[SSridhar]

Preparing for a Chinese Cold Start - IDSA Report

[rohitvats]

^^^For the above to happen, PLA will need to maintain a strong force in Tibet. Before that happens, there is no Cold Start happening anytime soon. Just the amount of time required for acclimitization will mean that troops brought in from outside cannot enter the battle immideately.

[Samudragupta]

Their access to Indian Ocean should be dependent on China accepting South China Sea as international waters or where of the other littoral states like Vietnam.

RajesA ji,
The game is not for SCS...its clear we are not in it....SCS is only a bridgehead to reach Central Asia and to fix the land of Hindukush.....Chinese shud understand this first hand....go out of Hindukush....we will leave SCS to u....

In fact, if Vietnam and India are intimidated, we should offer Vietnam the possibility of creating some form of Confederation, which would allow India to deploy our nuclear missiles in Vietnam itself.

Why not Viets be allowed to form some form of millitary alliance with the Thai's... and lets take over (it can mean different things to different people)Cambodia and Laos first....that will creat an Anti China alliance in SE Asia lead by a native power probably backed by us....

Let Viets take the lead in forming the Anti-Chian alliance in the Asian Waters and put their naval force under the common naval command....We can always join and lead later

[merlin]

^^^For the above to happen, PLA will need to maintain a strong force in Tibet. Before that happens, there is no Cold Start happening anytime soon. Just the amount of time required for acclimitization will mean that troops brought in from outside cannot enter the battle immideately.

How much do you think acclimitization time is? Only two weeks. That's not too long, unless you think a clash will last less than two weeks.

[Pratyush]

^^^

What happens if the PRC launches a limited offensive and then withdraws claiming victory before the full weight of the IA descends on the theater.

What will the Indian political class do. Accept the cease fire or peruse the PLA and seeking a tactical victory?

[Philip]

The PLA have the capability thanks to the railway into Tibet,to move several divisions speedily in a crisis.Destroying key bridges,etc., of the Tibet railway is a must if in the future the sh*t hits the fan.The PLA also have the ability to launch large numbers of tactical missiles aimed at our key command centres,ALGs and other key points of importance.The PLAF also has the capability of stationing a large number of its version of the Flanker and even bombers in its air bases in Tibet.What it will try to do is what the IDSA paper speculates about,is to launch swift attacks on a wide front with the aim of seizing Indian territory all along the border especially in key sectors,and holding onto the captured territory after a cease-fire.The aim would be to humiliate India as it did in '62.The nation has never been so imperiled as under the abject regime of MMS.The PLA know that their window of opportunity has opened,but also that it will not remain open for an indefinite period.Faced with inferior infrastructure on our side,it is going to be a huge task for the IA to prevent loss of territory in the event of a PRC attack.Our options will have to be assymetrical.

Therefore our intel in Tibet has to be first class.Apart from sat surveillance,we also need considerable "humint" which should not be a major problem gvien the animosity of the local Tibetans towards the Han invaders.The time is long past for us to arm the Tibetan diaspora and establish several commando units mainly comprising Tibetans who would be able to carry out swift operations deep inside Tibet to destroy key elements of the PORC's infrastructure and help delay/stem any Chinese advance into Indian territory.The IA could also plan for counter-thrusts into Tibet with the same intention and the use of the IAF will be a key factor in determining the outcome of any skirmishes or major thrusts into Indian territory.

However,there are other methods of blooding the dragon's nose.We have two "T" cards to play.The first is recognition of Taiwan and the second is recognition of the Tibetan govt. in exile and Tibet as an independent nation.Given the fact the Buddhism began in India,by that yardstick,Tibet should be an Indian protectorate.It is why some time ago I floated the idea that we make his Holiness the Dalai Lama,"president of India".There was lively debate on this idea and many good ideas came forth.Indian rejection of Chinese sovereignity over both Taiwan and Tibet would be a massive diplomatic defeat for the PRC.Other nations,also threatened by China would certainly consider seriously folllowing India's example.What would the Chinese do? Wage a full scale war with India? This is China's greatest fear-of going to war with a democratic India and being condemned by the world's nations as it would destroy the economic success that it has achieved pretending to be a "peaceful power" intent only upon enriching its people,while actually it is using its eco success to massively arm itself and challenge the US as the world's foremost military power by 2050.China attempting to "land-grab" will have red lights flashing all across Asia and unite nations afeared of China into joint anti-Chinese diplomatic and military postures,with the US actively involved orchestrating events.

We also have another card to play,that is that of the IN in the IOR and choking any Chinese attempt to penetrate into the IOR from the Indo-China Sea.I sinceerly suggest that we describe this maritime zone as such and not the "S.China Sea",because the landmass that borders it has been commonly known for centuries as "Indo-China".It will further legitimise the right of Indian naval assets to operate in the I-C Sea.The IN apart from choking the PLAN at the entrances/straits into the IOR,can also carry out ops in the Indo-China Sea,even perhaps using Vietnamese bases in a crisis and still further stop all oil supplies to China emanating/transiting the Gulf/IOR.If we are able to quicly posses a few more SSGNs,we could station these subs in the Pacific too to intercept and dstroy PRC oil supplies form the Americas too!

While we will be able to and have proven so in the past,be able to counter PRC thrusts into India and stop any deep penetration into Indian territory using the IA and IAF, who have the experience and history of Kargil behind them,the IN operating in the IOR and Indo-China Sea will be able to possess a unique advantage in its naval forces operating in the IOR also using the "unsinkable" IN carrier,the land mass of India,from where even LR land based aircraft can dominate the seas.Thus we need to strengthen both our diplomatic will to not just "talk but act tough" as we are now doing with offshore oil prospecting with Vietnam,but also to urgently further accelerate the modernisation and increase in the IN's numbers of warships,subs and aviation assets,but also replicate the same strategy of naval and diplomatic cooperation which we are conducting with Vietnam with other ASEAN and Asia-Pacific nations.If China thinks that it can "encircle" India,we can likewise also show that "draw" circles of our won on the map! The ongoing Indo-Lankan naval exercises are an excellent sign of India reacting positively to the threat from China and securing its backyard first.Our current For.Sec. who served in Colombo many years ago during Cold War games,one is sure well knows the strategic importance of the island nation and the asset of forceful diplomacy ,spearheaded by a pro-active maritime policy.

[RajeshA]

Continuing from PRC Thread

China to expand significantly the scope of its sea-bed mining project in the Indian Ocean
Tit-for-tat ?

Beijing has approval to explore in a 10,000 sq km seabed area in southwest Indian Ocean for the ore and now it plans to invest more to expand the “depth and scope of oceanic research”.

SSridhar garu,

This is okay. They are giving us hostages. It is the Chinese who claiming rights to South China Sea. India is not claiming rights to Indian Ocean (not just yet anyway).

If the Chinese attack Indian vessels in South China Sea in waters we consider as not belonging to China, we can retaliate in the Indian Ocean easily. If they do not wish us to retaliate, they will have to gulp their pride and their claims in the South China Sea and allow Indian companies to prospect for Oil etc. there. If they allow that, they are de-facto accepting Vietnam's rights to the region. Again something they may not like.

By putting their vessels in the Indian Ocean, they are giving us an opportunity to equate international waters (Indian Ocean) with contested waters (South China Sea).

[rohitvats]

^^^For the above to happen, PLA will need to maintain a strong force in Tibet. Before that happens, there is no Cold Start happening anytime soon. Just the amount of time required for acclimitization will mean that troops brought in from outside cannot enter the battle immideately.

How much do you think acclimitization time is? Only two weeks. That's not too long, unless you think a clash will last less than two weeks.

Please see the thrust of the article.

What he says is that PLA can bring in troops from outside, place them close to border and then, use them on an multiple axis of their choosing. This they can use to disrupt a limited axis of maintance (like road to Tawang) and use infiltration across the border. In his opinion, this is akin to our CSD on western border - where the surprise is not in terms of force composition or level but the actual deployment of the same in terms of time and space. So, while we'll know that Chinese are coming, what we won't know is from where they are coming.

This is where I respectfully disagree with him - If we know that PLA is coming, and that too quite in advance, we can be prepared in terms of our response. Those 30 Divisions are not going to land unannounced and are going to require hell lot of logistics to be mainteind. The politicaly important objectives are know - and given the mountainous terrain, the axis of movement for any large scale force are limited. And mind you, this is mountain warfare we're talking about - IA goes with 1:9 ratio between defender and attacker...so, let us see what the PLA brings to the table.

[merlin]

How much in advance we know is the question? How much in advance should we know to prepare adequately? With the resources we have?

[kumarn]

What if they just amass the 30 divisions on the Indo-Tibbetan border and just make threatening moves without any shooting? That would draw a lot of Indian assets on that border. And then the pakis start their misadventure on the western front. I am sure the Indian planners would have thought of this elementary scenario, but if I were the Chinese I would not get into a shooting war if the same can be done with their proxies. So, each time they have to make a point, they can tie one hand of ours to our back and let the pakhanis punch us. I think this scenario is more plausible because India would have taken good care to avoid a 62 type short, sharp lesson-sikhao offensive.

[SSridhar]

Continuing from PRC Thread

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/ind ... 462204.ece
China to expand significantly the scope of its sea-bed mining project in the Indian Ocean
Tit-for-tat ?

Beijing has approval to explore in a 10,000 sq km seabed area in southwest Indian Ocean for the ore and now it plans to invest more to expand the “depth and scope of oceanic research”.

SSridhar garu,

This is okay. They are giving us hostages. It is the Chinese who claiming rights to South China Sea. India is not claiming rights to Indian Ocean (not just yet anyway).

If the Chinese attack Indian vessels in South China Sea in waters we consider as not belonging to China, we can retaliate in the Indian Ocean easily. If they do not wish us to retaliate, they will have to gulp their pride and their claims in the South China Sea and allow Indian companies to prospect for Oil etc. there. If they allow that, they are de-facto accepting Vietnam's rights to the region. Again something they may not like.

By putting their vessels in the Indian Ocean, they are giving us an opportunity to equate international waters (Indian Ocean) with contested waters (South China Sea).

Rajesh, I would say this could be more nuanced than just right of access to 'waters' . The Chinese already got the approval of the ISA (Intn'l Seabed Authority) to mine in an area south-west of India. This has already come as a surprise to India and IN is concerned because PRC can under this guise, map the area completely including bathymetry etc that can help operation of their ships especially the submarines. They could also use this wide area to monitor movements of the IN, especially its SSN & SSBN as they become operational in the next few years. The cost to IN to avoid this stretch could be significant. I am certain that the IN, having expressed its concern already, is looking at how exactly a Chinese SSBN could operate out of this 10000 Sq Km area posing a direct threat to us. The 'significant expansion' that China is now talking about could be to increase this Indian concern a lot more. They have not yet started mining for the polymetallic nodules in their allocated zone (it would take a couple of years) and why should they therefore seek to expand their operations already ? May be the Chinese think that this could be used as a bargaining chip to stop Indian activities in SCS. If India did not budge, this would be an opportunity to map a much larger area under a legitimate guise. If India budges, then India might vacate SCS while PRC retains the ISA-allocated Indian Ocean block. I am sure that the involvement of OVL in SCS also has a similar component from our competent hydrological branch, both civilian and naval. While PRC has now got international sanction to operate in an undisputed area, India will have to operate in a disputed area (howsoever illogical the Chinese claim is) with the attendant risks. That is the issue.

[shyamd]

Another thing is, they will be able to put hydrophones in the area, so every time a Aus/US/Indian sub goes past, the PRC will know.

[RajeshA]

SSridhar garu,

thanks for the insight.

IMHO, India cannot afford to give up on our stakes in South China Sea, because that is basically India's second strike deterrence deployment region.

We need to be able to track any Chinese SSB or SSBN all the way from China to the Indian Ocean and thus we need to map and hydrophone all that area as well.

But it does seem that the stakes have increased, and we are on a collision course.

India and Vietnam need to move ahead and in fact create a fully integrated defense posture, with Indian nukes and soldiers sitting in Vietnam itself. Any move on Vietnam should mean an Indian attack on China and an attack on India should mean we can open a second front from Vietnam.

Additionally, we need to make Nepal and Myanmar our staging area, rather than China's staging area against India, which is a long way off.

AFAIK, China has very good deep water exploration technology.

[SSridhar]

IMHO, India cannot afford to give up on our stakes in South China Sea, because that is basically India's second strike deterrence deployment region.

No, no, not at all. We cannot give up just because China says so. We are not going to SCS just to provoke PRC. We have been going everywhere, from Siberia to LatAm to Africa to look for energy sources.

China, in its arrogance as evidenced by articles appearing in Chinese newspapers etc, is not easily deterred by India. India needs the support of other threatened nations as well like the US, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and Australia. The recent Australia-US annual strategic conference (AUSmin) in San Frisco has spoken of necessity for India to play a role. Ms. Clinton spoke in Chennai of India leading the Asia-pacific region (a nomenclature which the AUSmin meeting referred to significantly as Indo-Pacific region). Since c. 2010, the Japanese Navy (Japanese Maritime Self Defence Force, or JMSDF) has also become part of the Malabar series of exercises. In c. 2007, a five-nation exercise (including Australia and Singapore) was conducted, which China objected to. The Malabar Series of exercises are no longer carried out just off the Malabar coast. The 2011 exercises were off Okinawa in Japan, but Japan itself pulled out because its Maritime forces were deeply involved in relief efforts following the earthquake and tsunami. The National Defence Programme Guidelines of Japan released in 2011, bring India into sharp defence focus. The annaual India-Japan strategic review is on the 2+2 format (involving Foreign & Defence ministers of both countries), something which Japan has only with the US. The first US-India-Japan trilateral meeting scheduled for next month will be significant.

The rise of PRC is not peaceful as it often self proclaims, it is very threatening as it has boundary disputes with everyone around it and it doesn't feel shy of assuming aggressive postures against all of them.

[VikramS]

One thing I have been pondering about.

The PLA has not seen blood for more than three decades now. That means almost all the field officers and soldiers have not witnessed a battle casualty or shown courage under fire. The closest they came was Tinnamen Square.

There is also the demographic question. Almost all of the PLA is now from the single child generation. Further China is no longer that poor nation where Mao could send millions to their death for the greater good.

While the generals may like to flex their muscles, what about the will to fight of the common soldier and their families.

While the PLA is probing everyone's boundaries, they have not yet faced retaliation. Some one needs to bell that cat in a manner which results in a good supply of body bags. Lets see how they react then.

[shyamd]

I spoke to someone today who interacted with Sec Def (amongst other seniors). Regarding Vietnam - its exactly as I have said before. IN is not there yet, we simply don't have the numbers at the moment to be projecting forces from Horn of Africa to GCC to SCS. So right now the opinion is IN is ready to be taking anyone on. However, it will be in the near future, once we start to get more of the current orders processed (~3-5 years). This is key. IN will be in a good position in the coming years. But as of now, we really can't help the Viet Navy in capacity building. Viets have offered IN the opportunity to drop anchor in any port they wish to.

My opinion is that it is a coup nevertheless as we can collect a lot of intelligence and monitor PRC in a better way.

As I say, India will have a major base in SE Asia in the coming few years (Maybe 1 small one and 1 big one), 1 in the GCC (Most likely Oman), 1 in Mauritius/Mozambique/Madagascar (We already have 1 with limited facilities here and another one that has been on the table for a few years now).

[ramana]

China has more to lose than India

China syndrome
The Chinese stand more to lose by confronting India, says N.V.Subramanian.

16 September 2011: While it may be simpler to understand why India has decided to get tough with China, the Chinese response will be harder to fathom. It will seek to "teach India a lesson" as in 1962 with short and brutal action. This could take place on the Indo-Tibet border as before or the South China Sea or the Indian Ocean. China will appear eminently reasonable in the run up to this "brutal action" so that history faults India. But if India is prepared for the consequences, there is no reason not to take up the challenge thrown by China. Before China gets excited, what follows is independent analysis, without Indian government inputs of any kind.

While there was considerable triumphalism in the United States in the early-Nineties for having won the Cold War against Soviet Russia, the real victor was China. Typical of Deng Xiaoping's wisdom, he set China to work on its economy, and managed its rise in which its urban citizenry angered with the Tiananmen Square massacre had a stake. Deng also ensured that China did not alarm the world as it matured as a great power riding a world-class economy.

There are several reasons for America's decline, including that with the Soviet Union gone, the US slackened up without competition. In the Bill Clinton years, this was often heard. But the president responsible for America's comprehensive decline, headlined by two wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and the September 2008 bankruptcies, was George W.Bush. When Bush's successor, Barack Obama, made a maiden visit to China, he was treated with derision and scorn, unheard of for any modern American president.

It represented the earliest recognition by a rival power to the US that America was no more up to the game of leading the world. The imperial overstretch in Afghanistan and Iraq and the "broken politics" that could not repair the shattered economy told China in clear terms that it was time to abandon Deng's approach of rising cautiously.

It is often suggested that the PLA is behind the new Chinese aggression, contained in such military decisions as destroying an old weather satellite or flight testing a stealth fighter coinciding with the Beijing visit of a US defense secretary. But this writer's analysis is that the Chinese political leadership was fully on board on these decisions. And this is further advertised by China's militant claims on all of the South China Sea, and threatening India for strengthening strategic and commercial ties with Vietnam. The US policy of propping up China as a counter to the Soviet Union in the Cold War has finally boomeranged.

China has been India's older enemy, from the time it gave asylum to the Dalai Lama. China's 1962 aggression against India came when world attention was drawn to the Cuban Missile Crisis. China has since played Pakistan against India, transferring nuclear and conventional weapons to it, and controlling portions of PoK ceded by Pakistan to tighten its own grip on troublesome Uighur and Tibetan sub-nations.

China's muscle-flexing is not restricted to the South China Sea. With the US due to leave Afghanistan, China wants to fill the vacuum with Pakistan's assistance. It is, therefore, coming on Pakistan's side in its Kashmir dispute with India, and is stationing troops in PoK and making infrastructural investments there. The long-term aim is to contain India in the north-west, and encircle it in the Indian Ocean with naval assets. China is convinced that a declining US cannot enforce Pax America and that its time for showing force has arrived.

In this background, India has to do what it has done. But it should be prepared for a backlash. While united action against Chinese belligerency is called for, India should be prepared to stick it out alone -- and win. Neither the US nor the nations actively browbeaten by China should be counted upon by India at a pinch, because when it comes to safeguarding national interests, states act selfishly. This is not to suggest India alone is facing aggression. But it must be prepared to bear the consequences of its resistance singly. India cannot afford the rise and consolidation of the Middle Kingdom.

So how will the Chinese "teach India a lesson"? Necessarily, the Chinese will be more circumspect than they were in 1962, because India is a major power with an authentic market economy unlike its own. China needs to remain an economic powerhouse more than India because that is part of its social contract with the Tiananmen Square massacre generation. If it fails economically due to war or prolonged international hostilities, the CCP will lose its legitimacy to rule the country, and other organs of state that derive full- or part-time authority from the CCP, including the PLA, will go down with it. On the other hand, because India has a market economy, it can always revive.

So China will be hesitant to provoke hostilities that will balloon into a full war. It cannot count on India to permit the humiliation of 1962 to be repeated. While India has a lot to lose from confronting China, China stands to lose more. Nevertheless, China cannot ignore India's toughening position, and will act on the land border or at sea. In response, India has to open a second front, if only to prevent an early closure of Chinese aggression where it can claim victory. Whether the second front is a real one or figurative in the sense of missile threats to China's rich coastal cities is best left to military planners, who will have countless other options.

China is so big that it cannot afford to fall. India should conclusively prove to be able to do a David if it is crowded by China.

Something to reflect on. He is preparing for the confrontation.

[kumarn]

^^^It will seek to "teach India a lesson" as in 1962 with short and brutal action.

Everyone is assuming that this time also the action will be similar to 1962. I doubt it very much and it bothers me.

[Agnimitra]

Article in Time Mag over a year ago:
The Coming China-India Conflict: Is War Inevitable?
By Ishaan Tharoor Tuesday, Mar. 23, 2010

Hypothetically, how could some sort of military clash come about?

It wouldn't first be open war. China and India are building up their interests in conflict-prone and unstable states on their borders like Nepal and Burma — important sources of natural resources. If something goes wrong in these countries — if the politics implode — you could see the emergence of proxy wars in Asia. Distrust between India and China will grow and so too security concerns in a number of arenas. It's an important scenario that strategic planners in both Beijing and Delhi are looking at.

[Samudragupta]

If IN is 5 years away from its true potential then its clear that Indo-Pacific ocean cannot be the second theatre in the conflict....

[Vashishtha]

Chinese agrression/claims aside this is the same GOI that dares not call a spade wrt paki terrorism and suddenly it has the balls to challenge China in its own backyard and without sufficient resources to back such a move.. Daal mein kuch kaala hain boss.
Either we are doing this at the behest of someone or the current dispensation have something nasty up their sleeve because they can't become patriotic overnight.
Probably both the former and latter are related.

[joshvajohn]

I do not wish arms race in South Asia but unfortunately the Chinese red army is of the same around as of those hitlarian times. So one needs to become equally strong to counter any threats. So India has to become become strong in every possible ways. I remember when China was exploring oil in Indian ocesan India raised voices the Chinese told the name Indian ocesan does not mean that it belongs to India. So the same argument can be made South China Sea does not mean it is Chinese. Vietnam is only exploring oil for which Indian company is helping. So India has to become strong not only in words but in having some good toys of war as well.

[Virendra]

The ongoing Indo-Lankan naval exercises are an excellent sign of India reacting positively to the threat from China and securing its backyard first.Our current For.Sec. who served in Colombo many years ago during Cold War games,one is sure well knows the strategic importance of the island nation and the asset of forceful diplomacy ,spearheaded by a pro-active maritime policy.

Discovery of the spying Chinese ship (with 20-22 labs in it) camouflaging as a fishing trawler for days near Little Andaman islands coastline, is a wake up call. When the radars detected it and IN sent a ship tailing it in Intl. waters, the spy ship retreated to Colombo port in Sri Lanka.
This lays serious apprehensions about Sri Lankan genuinity and there willingness not to be used as a Chinese weapon against India.
Both the Lankans and Chinese have denied such reports.
GOI sources say the Chinese ship had specific aims to map the Indian Ocean and collect Bathymetric data, which helps in submarine and aircraft carrier based operations.
Time to remind our Lankan friends that they neighbour India and not China; or everyone will take us for granted.

Regards,
Virendra

[Virendra]

If GOI is sincere and calculated about the exploration move etc. then this could be the first move of preparation of nemesis for China in Vietnam; just as Chinese have already decided to fight India till the last Pakistani.
A tit for tat situation would be ideal to teach China a lesson.

Regards,
virendra

[shyamd]

Virendra - it was GoSL intel that gave us the info as to what exactly was onboard.

[shyamd]

Former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe for Indo-Japan naval ties with US

Abe said while the US had been providing stability to the sea lanes of commerce since 1950s, it was now "weaker". "In the meantime, let India and Japan work together with the Americans so that there is no strategic void," Abe said in a seminar 'Two democracies meet at sea: For a better and safer Asia' in New Delhi.

In an indirect reference to matching Chinese assertiveness in the East and the South East Asian regions, Abe said, "... As natural allies, India and Japan must work harder to keep our great maritime asset open, free and safe... Please let your (India's) navy meet the Japanese naval force more often at sea".

Japan, who participated in a series of naval exercises with India off the Malabar coast in 2007, wants to take part in more such exercises in future.

[RajeshA]

Published on Sep 19, 2011
By Harsh V. Pant
India and China in deep water over sovereignty: Japan Times

India, too, is within its rights to transit through the international waters of South China Sea, and Beijing has no right to question the passage though these waters. Of course, China claims the South China Sea in its entirety but its confrontational posture and rhetoric could easily escalate to a major conflict.

The South China Sea is now one of Asia's critical strategic flashpoints with some even suggesting that it will be the "military frontline" of China in coming years.

India, too, has an interest in protecting the sea lanes of communication that cross the South China Sea to Northeast Asia and the U.S. As India's profile rises in East and Southeast Asia, it will have to assert its legitimate interests in the East Asian waters.

As China expands its presence in South Asia and the Indian Ocean region, India needs to stake its own claims in East Asia. India has decided to work with Vietnam to establish a regular Indian presence in the region as part of a larger Delhi-Hanoi security partnership.

Vietnam has given India the right to use its port of Nha Trang.

While the U.S. remains distracted by economic woes and the challenges of the Arab Spring in the Middle East, Japan is proving unable to tackle its political inertia and emerge as a credible balancer in the region. Thus the regional environment is conducive for assertion by Beijing.

India is right to forcefully reject Chinese claims of sovereignty over the entire South China Sea. It should now build credible strategic partnerships with other regional states to prevent a Chinese regional dominance that will undermine Indian and regional security interests.

Published on Sep 19, 2011
By Gwynne Dyer
Sea frontiers: Korean Times

Israel attacked last year’s aid flotilla well beyond the limits of the blockade zone it had declared around Gaza, and might do so again. Israel would have local air superiority, but the Turkish warships would be on hair-trigger alert for an attack. This could end very badly.

Even that is small potatoes compared to the potential for a naval conflict in the South China Sea. China insists that virtually the whole sea is its territory, with claimed boundaries that skim the coasts of all the other countries that border the sea: Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and the Philippines.

China bases its claim on its historic sovereignty over the clusters of low-lying islands in the middle of the sea, the Paracels and the Spratlys. But Hanoi says that Beijing never claimed sovereignty until 1940, and that the islands had actually been controlled by Vietnam since the 17th century. They were certainly under Vietnamese control until 1974, when China seized them by force, killing several Vietnamese soldiers in the process.

The Philippines also claims some of the islands, and all four Southeast Asian countries reject China’s claim to own the seabed rights practically up to their beaches. To make matters worse, there are now believed to be enormous reserves of oil and gas under the sea’s shallow waters.

Worst of all, the South China Sea is a maritime highway connecting Europe, the Middle East and South Asia with East Asia, and none of the other major powers is willing to let it fall under exclusive Chinese control. That’s why an Indian warship was visiting Vietnam last July, and why the United States is selling more warships and helicopters to the Philippines.

It’s a slow-burning fuse, but this is the most worrisome strategic confrontation in the world today.

[Samudragupta]

I have a very simple question to this unusual bravado of IN....If Chinese decides to carry out a 1962 in the waters of SCS against the Indian assets..who is going to stop them?

[RajeshA]

Samudragupta ji,

India strides important sea lanes along the Indian Ocean. Basically China would be foolish to hit at India, because that would make China vulnerable to all its trade and Oil imports passing through the Indian Ocean.

[Samudragupta]

Samudragupta ji,

India strides important sea lanes along the Indian Ocean. Basically China would be foolish to hit at India, because that would make China vulnerable to all its trade and Oil imports passing through the Indian Ocean.

RajeshAji,
What will happen if PLA roles 30 to 40 division into Pakistan right across the IB...the reckless way the Chinese are behaving, we can never be so sure that the above scenario cannot happen.....In as much pulling SL is in the right direction but something has to be done with Nepal...not so sure about Bangladesh though....

[Virendra]

Virendra - it was GoSL intel that gave us the info as to what exactly was onboard.

In media the GoSL has openly denied of having any such Chinese spy ship docked in Colombo at all?
Either ways, its too little too late. But I guess we can't just blame Lankans and look away because ultimately it was us who failed to spot the enemy sneaking for so many days. In a way the accountability of this fiasco lies with us and not the lankans.
Is the navy not yet completely equipped with good radars? The ship should've been spotted much earlier and probably caught as well (in case it ever came into Indian waters).

Regards,
Virendra

[RajeshA]

Indo-Vietnam Confederation

Samudragupta ji,

India strides important sea lanes along the Indian Ocean. Basically China would be foolish to hit at India, because that would make China vulnerable to all its trade and Oil imports passing through the Indian Ocean.

RajeshAji,
What will happen if PLA roles 30 to 40 division into Pakistan right across the IB...the reckless way the Chinese are behaving, we can never be so sure that the above scenario cannot happen.....In as much pulling SL is in the right direction but something has to be done with Nepal...not so sure about Bangladesh though....

Once you posted this

I say Vietnam needs nuclear weapons and long-distance missiles, asap!

I say Vietnam be included into Indian Union as 30th Province.....One Nation 2 System....

Samudragupta ji,
I will never say something like that. Vietnam is a friendly country towards India.

Vietnam is not in our immediate neighborhood nor is it as if it was part of some Indian Empire, that we should consider something like this. I know there was some Hindu influence there, but it is not the Indian Subcontinent. Vietnamese are a very proud people who have handed out the arses of two of the world's superpowers in their hands!

One cannot make a comment like this and expect that it would not be extremely insulting to the other party.

I've had to revise my opinion on this.

In fact, if Vietnam and India are intimidated, we should offer Vietnam the possibility of creating some form of Confederation, which would allow India to deploy our nuclear missiles in Vietnam itself.

One could think of making Vietnam and India

• a military alliance - Vietnamese and Indian military stationed in each other's country on their border to China, joint strategic command, naval integration, defense cooperation
• a single market
• a single currency
• integration of standards and norms
• visa-free travel and hassle-free residence and business permits
• Permits for Dharmic religions to practice and preach in Vietnam
• Allow Vietnam to offer schools in India Vietnam language courses, which can be accepted by CBSE as an exam in foreign language and vice-versa. India can offer Sanskrit, English, Hindi and Tamil classes in Vietnam schools.
• More Vietnamese students in Indian universities

India can create such confederations with like-minded countries, whose culture is compatible with our culture, and we share strategic goals. That is also India's soft-power appeal. China cannot. China cannot create such level of integration with Pakistan.

By building a Confederation with presence on the two extremes of the South East Asia landmass, it allows us to consider the intervening region of utmost strategic importance to India for navigation and security. Secondly with time, other countries may decide to join the confederation. Cambodia, Thailand, Myanmar would be prime candidates. Most importantly we would have fine-tuned a framework for such integration, which others may find appealing.

We would in fact be offering South-East Asian countries, at least the land based countries an alternative to ASEAN, which would be based on

1. Hindu-Buddhist Cultural Heritage,
2. A Security Alliance aka NATO
3. Single Market aka EU
4. Monetary Union aka Eurozone
5. Single Labor Market
6. Mutually Recognized Education Degrees

India needs some game-changing moves. With Vietnam things can be brought to roll right away, simply because of shared threat. A Confederation between India and Vietnam would make India directly responsible for safeguarding Vietnam's claims in the South China Sea, and Vietnam's borders with China.

An expansion of the Confederation would probably have to wait when India becomes an economic heavyweight.

An attack on India should mean that India can attack from Vietnam on China as well.

[Virendra]

Samudragupta ji,

India strides important sea lanes along the Indian Ocean. Basically China would be foolish to hit at India, because that would make China vulnerable to all its trade and Oil imports passing through the Indian Ocean.

I guess China knows that already? So given the kind of player it is, we should assume they're already scrambling strategies to overcome/counter this disadvantage.
Look how cleverly they made themselves a good shortcut in PoK-Gwadar linkage. If that line becomes operational and remains rid of local insuregency/violence the Chinese would be in big gains.
Bottomline we cannot rely on natural advantages/defense and have to compete with our rivals. China already has covert access to Coco islands next to Andaman. They can give more surprises.

Regards,
Virendra

[Virendra]

If we know that PLA is coming, and that too quite in advance, we can be prepared in terms of our response. Those 30 Divisions are not going to land unannounced and are going to require hell lot of logistics to be mainteind. The politicaly important objectives are know - and given the mountainous terrain, the axis of movement for any large scale force are limited. And mind you, this is mountain warfare we're talking about - IA goes with 1:9 ratio between defender and attacker...so, let us see what the PLA brings to the table.

It is true that punching through the himalayas into India isn't possible without bleeding hard. Moreover the gap of capabilities as in 1962 is considerably covered and will be in future. Chinese are playing pressure games with us, mixing irritational moves like stopping construction and damaging walls in border areas.
I think it will be a lot more difficult for them after 2020. Hopefully by then we would have attained enough deterrence. The threat howver will remain always in one or the other capacity.

Regards,
Virendra

[shyamd]

Army to have another BrahMos missile regiment

Army to have another BrahMos missile regiment New Delhi: As part of efforts to upgrade military capabilities in the north-east, the induction of an advanced variant of the 290-km range supersonic cruise missile in the army for mountain warfare has been approved by the government.

Army to have another BrahMos missile regiment
The approval by the Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) -- Ministry's apex decision making body-- will pave the way for induction of the fourth missile regiment in the army, Defence Ministry sources told agency here.

The sanction for inducting a regiment of the Block III steep-dive variant of the BrahMos, granted recently in a DAC meeting chaired by the Defence Minister, is expected to enhance the lethality of army's firepower in the north-east region.

The steep-dive attack cruise missile can hit enemy targets hidden in the shadows of mountains, they said.

The army has inducted a total of three regiments already including two of the Block II variant, which can precisely hit the intended enemy building or assets even in a cluster of buildings.

In the backdrop of massive military infrastructure buildup by China in its areas along the frontiers, India has taken several measures to improve its preparedness in the north-east.

Army to have another BrahMos missile regiment
These steps include deployment of two squadrons of the Su-30 MKI fighter jet aircraft in Tezpur and Chhabua in Assam and raising of two mountain divisions for deployment in Arunachal Pradesh and adjoining areas.

The government also revised its old military doctrine of not developing roads along the border and is working on developing over 70 strategic roads on the Sino-Indian border.

BrahMos is a stealth supersonic cruise missile that can be launched from submarines, ships, aircraft or land and has been inducted in all the three services.

[Christopher Sidor]

^^^^^
Finally there is light at the end of the tunnel. For so lonnnnnnnnnnnnnnng have we been on the defensive as far our borders with Tibet are concerned. We need to take the fight into the PLA relam, not allow them to bring the fight into our lands. Very good. Let us build roads, rails and ALG or better still all weather air strips in AP, Sikkim, Ladakh, Uttaranchal and Himachal. Let us give our forces the ability to march into Tibet rather them being always on the defensive as far as McMahon Line is concerned.