Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Sep 22, 2011

Pranay · Post by **Pranay** » 25 Sep 2011 20:41

With the recall of the Foreign Minister from NY, the Pakistani Corps Commanders Meeting etc... it seems like the Pakistani Establishment is laying the framework for the Pakistani response to a possible US military "limited operation" against the Haqqani network in North Waziristan.

The sharp rise in US rhetoric on this subject within the US is possible preparation of the US masses for such an operation, if the Pakistanis do not immediately act against the Haqqani's themselves.

The Pakistanis are going through all the scenarios at a high level - just in case...

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 25 Sep 2011 20:53

^ they are inviting Chines VP for that all party meeting? Some assurance that clown jewels are secured?..

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 25 Sep 2011 20:53

A US that bombed Libya for Berlin-discotheque attack, it is a test of US power if it is able to repeat it in 2011. Unkil has been quite consistent in retaliating against the land that attacks Americans as well as American-interests. OBL paid a price for USSCole-NigerianEmbassy-WTC-9/11.

Pakistan has been an exception until now (Unkil disregarded loss of US lives in 26/11, etc....). Other than Atum-bumb angle, there is no reason for this Abhay-daan to Pakistan. I am happy to be corrected if that is not the only difference.

Manny · Post by **Manny** » 25 Sep 2011 21:06

US can easily win this war, by supporting Baluch independence. That single thing would send Pakistan to the slaughter house

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 25 Sep 2011 21:07

Pranay wrote: The sharp rise in US rhetoric on this subject within the US is possible preparation of the US masses

..hmmmm. Interesting thought. "Preparing US masses"? How stupid it was on the US in retrospect to have described Pakistan as "Most important non-NATO ally". Somehow I think Pakistan - specifically Musharraf scored an admirable coup against the US. he made it look like he was being pushed and threatened while he did everything possible to screw the US and make the US feel guilty and miserable for "ditching Pakistan" after the cold war. We are habituated to praising and admiring the US and being contemptuous of Pakistan. But Pakistan is no mean adversary. The arrogance of language and demeanor that Pakis use is admired in the west. It is present in the Suhrawardy 1958 video whose transcript I posted in the old thread. It is present in Ayub Khan's bluster (YouTube videos) and it is crystal clear in Mr. Khar's TV interview.

For me on BRF I have become inured to being told how stupid, weak and incompetent Indians are compared with the clever Pakis. On top of that i am informed that the Pakis look stupid and incompetent in front of the US. The truth of course is that the Pakis are looking like they are screwing the US like it has never been screwed by anyone before and the US basically has no options left other than the impracticable rah rah rah bluster of "USA can bomb the shiites out of Pakistan any time". They can't. And they won't.

As you can see I am thoroughly enjoying the predicament the US has got itself into and am perfectly willing to be shown I am wrong by patriotic American rah rah rah triumphalism if the US actually pulls off something useful. Wake me up if that happens and curse me.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 25 Sep 2011 21:07

Manny wrote:US can easily win this war, by supporting Baluch independence. That single thing would send Pakistan to the slaughter house

With respect sir. This is nonsense.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 25 Sep 2011 21:11

shiv wrote:
Manny wrote:US can easily win this war, by supporting Baluch independence. That single thing would send Pakistan to the slaughter house
With respect sir. This is nonsense.

Could you elaborate on why this is infeasible?. On the surface, an independent Balochistan opens Afghanistan to the sea and changes the dependence calculus.

member_19648 · Post by **member_19648** » 25 Sep 2011 21:14

Manny wrote:US can easily win this war, by supporting Baluch independence. That single thing would send Pakistan to the slaughter house

They would rather have all the Balochis killed and practiced their nukes on them, than let Balochistan gain independence. Pakis imagine in their minds that the Balochis are being helped by India and look how they are slaughtering them. Independence is just a wishful dream!

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 25 Sep 2011 21:14

Cosmo_R wrote:Could you elaborate on why this is infeasible?. On the surface, an independent Balochistan opens Afghanistan to the sea and changes the dependence calculus.

shiv saar has explained on quite a few occasions that Baloch are not sufficiently trained as soldiers or do not have the hardware to wage a good war, i.e. if I understood him correctly.

member_19648 · Post by **member_19648** » 25 Sep 2011 21:16

Cosmo_R wrote: Could you elaborate on why this is infeasible?. On the surface, an independent Balochistan opens Afghanistan to the sea and changes the dependence calculus.

Going by this logic, they can break Pakistan up into a thousand pieces and liberate all the oppressed people!! Also, they can disarm Pakistan at will, can't they?

Dipanker · Post by **Dipanker** » 25 Sep 2011 21:20

Ivanev wrote:
Going by this logic, they can break Pakistan up into a thousand pieces and liberate all the oppressed people!! Also, they can disarm Pakistan at will, can't they?

Yes then can but they don't need to. Just freeing Baluchistan will serve their purpose.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 25 Sep 2011 21:26

Cosmo_R wrote:
shiv wrote:
With respect sir. This is nonsense.
Could you elaborate on why this is infeasible?. On the surface, an independent Baluchistan opens Afghanistan to the sea and changes the dependence calculus.

Pakistan has an army funded and equipped by the USA. It is a formidable army that will stretch India severely in any war. The total population of Baluchistan is 6.6 million (Of a total of 170 odd million Pakis) And about 2 million people in Baluchistan are Pashtuns. Even if every able bodied Baluchi male is recruited for a fight against Pakistan it will be difficult to mobilize more than a few tens of thousands.

Next, how do you train them? In Baluchistan? That means occupation of territory by US forces or some other entity that is going to train them. To train even 10,000 men you need camps and equipment. Next, what are you going to arm them with. If you are going to arm them with Kalashnikovs it is no use. they will need armored personnel carriers mortars and artillery. Where will these be shipped in from? From Iran? Bahrain? Afghanistan? What is the time frame for this. In the presence of a massive civil war in east Pakistan, with India surrounding the country it took about 10 months to get to where India did. And East Pakistan had a population of tens of millions and West Pakistan only had a sea connection. In Baluchistan, Pakistani soldiers are right there. Where is the US?

At most the US can support an insurgency lasting months or years. And Pakis will be hitting them with F-16s, Huey helos, Tanks, Paveways supplied by the US and soldiers in Bradley APCs wearing US supplied bulletproof jackets. Will the US provide air support to the Baluchis? Please see what the Taliban are doing before deluding yourself that the Baluchis can do magic.

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 25 Sep 2011 21:29

^^^ Hakimullah .. I agree.. What in your opinion would be the solution now ?

Instigating revolt within army ?

Sabotaging military facilities?

stopping aid...

covert ops?

What combination of the above would yield the results?

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 25 Sep 2011 21:38

US can do Kuwait in Balochistan. But there is no build up to take such drastic step. US cant suddenly decide and do anything it wants.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 25 Sep 2011 21:40

Pakistan has more than enough soldiers to crush any regular "Baluchi" army. But the entire Pakistani arm will be useless if they try to fight a prolonged guerilla war against Pashtuns and Baluchis. For this reason Pakistan never wanted to move their troops from the border with India. Even now that Pakis maintain 75% or more of their troop strength against india.

The US has been more stupid than we ever wanted to admit on this "ahead of curve" forum. Any time anyone raised a voice to point out US stupidity he was told off by rah-rahs that the US was very wise and whatever they did was right. Pakistan does not want to fight those people and Pakistan will not fight them and as long as Pakistan does not fight they those people will not fight Pakistan.

But the Americans are greedy sons of bitches and they are paying for it now. They were demanding that Pakistanis should do all the fighting. The Us armed Pakistan and put pressure on India to make deals with Pakistan so that "Pakistan could feel reassured" and sed its troops from India border to the west. India quickly figured out that fighting Pakistan would be no good. Pakistan was already tough without US hel and worse with US help. (Note that the US also does not want to fight Pakistan the lily livered cisses).

The Pakis have essentially told the US to fu(k off. They are keeping their troops on the border with India and are not bending to US coercion. There is bugger all that the US can do. they don't even have Indian support because they have been phenomenally idiotic. Please stop making me laugh by claiming that the US has been super-clever. If they are let them show it by getting out of the mess they are in. But ping me when they do something. Not when they make noises. I make noises every time I fart. But it's no threat to anyone.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 25 Sep 2011 21:42

gakakkad wrote:^^^ Hakimullah .. I agree.. What in your opinion would be the solution now ?

Instigating revolt within army ?

Sabotaging military facilities?

stopping aid...

covert ops?

What combination of the above would yield the results?

The US has no options. The US wants to preserve the Pakistani army and yet win its private war without bothering about India. They will lose. there are no options in the course the US is following. We have known this for years but too many rah rahs have been saying that US is too great to lose.

member_19648 · Post by **member_19648** » 25 Sep 2011 21:47

abhijitm wrote:US can do Kuwait in Balochistan. But there is no build up to take such drastic step. US cant suddenly decide and do anything it wants.

What Dr. Shiv is saying that, the US can't help the Balochi cause covertly or secretly. It has to intervene militarily to liberate Balochistan with significant military help, that would invite retaliation from Pakistani state. So, a full scale war would erupt. So, this would be lead to the same outcome as

1. The US going after the Haqqanis unilaterally.
2. Going for Paki Nukes.
3. Any other military action against PA.

So, all these paths lead to the same consequence. Judging which one is less risky and which one is more, is like playing russian roulette.

parsuram · Post by **parsuram** » 25 Sep 2011 21:50

R Guru Ji: The PRC is visiting the paki to tell them to back off. Last thing PRCs want is a hot war on their western front, destabilizing their restive muslim population. They know what the delusional paki is going to want - an overt statement of support. The paki thinks their PRC relationship is kind of like the "friendship treaty" IG signed with the Soviets before BD war. PRC-US are not in a cold war. Tempramentally the PRCs are nothing like the soviets. The poaki does not realise that their deep friend is a lot like them - wanting something for nothing. There is no upside for the PRC in this situation, so they are going to step back and tell the paki to do the same. The paki does not know the meaning of the word. It may go it alone, covertly. ISI would not have initiated this level of support against the US/NATO, if they did not have options to move on up the escallation ladder. Who knows the real situation within the paki state. They may have very little to loose.

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 25 Sep 2011 21:50

^^ the question was whether US can or cannot. So my opinion is that they can but they will not.

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 25 Sep 2011 21:54

eklavya wrote:Pakistan warns US it could ‘lose an ally’
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/33e3f1cc-e535 ... z1YxfPVZJi

See comment from "Realist"

8. The body language of Admiral Mullen and Secretary Panetta before the Senate Committee yesterday was not that of composed rational persons; they had the look of "beaten" men, disoriented and looking for excuses.
....
10. There is nothing that Pakistan can do to make United States "victorious" in Afghanistan or indeed anywhere. That poor country has already lost 60 billion dollars and lots of good lives in this American misadventure. More random killing by Americans in Pakistan would only be counterproductive. The Foreign Minister, not the most competent in the world for sure, has given a reasonable response in this instance. The Americans have been cautioned not to make rash talk.

Gerard wrote:Sharing intelligence? Red lines? Where have I read that before?

US asked to share intelligence on Haqqani network

US must not cross ‘red lines’, says FM Khar

Brad Goodman wrote:Hina Rabbani Khar called back from US visit

And the final sharam-sharam that Pakis are doing to US

Rangudu wrote:Chinese Vice Premier Li Keqiang to visit Islamabad tomorrow to "discuss strategic matters".

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 25 Sep 2011 21:55

abhijitm wrote:
RajeshA wrote:Pakistan does not have that much conventional capacity to take on USA. What they have is nukes! So USA would have to think that Pakistanis would be thinking of some nuclear retaliation after some red line gets crossed, something the Pakistanis have been pointing out loudly. If they make some move, then USA is going to come down with everything it has got, to stop Pakistanis from going nuclear.
Me thinks pakis will follow Saddam's tactics in gulf war 1 where he attacked Israel. Pak in their scenario will threaten to nuke India. I am not sure what will happen next, fork of scenarios can be think of...

I am guessing there will be no jets, no boots on ground etc. It will be business as usual, with sour faces. Much as I hate to admit it, TSP analysis of the game is correct, and USA will 'lose'.

USA is probably using the vietnam lessons, in which bombing cambodia and to an extent laos to deny safe haven to viet cong resulted in murderous extremists taking over--khmer rouge and pathet lao. In those cases only the people suffered, but in this case the crazies have nukes and imperial ambitions.

Only on brf is there the realization that TSPA==the crazies with nukes etc. USA and world believe they can engage with TSPA and will not do anything to lose that ability.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 25 Sep 2011 21:56

What the US has to do is to allow the Pakistan military to "go down" and become weaker slowlly. The US is finding it difficult to do that because the Paki army calls the shots in Pakistan and simply screws teh US when the US stops supporting it. the biggest threat the Pakistan army has is "jihadi takeover" if the US doe snot support the army.

The Pakistan army will not allow the US to stop funding it but will not use US funds to fight the US war. They have the US by the balls. Ultimately this war can only be won by support from India. But the US has to understand that. Even with Indian support it won't be easy because the US has misunderstood and misread Pakistan and underestimated Pakis for decades.

I personally think a Taliban takeover of Pakistan would be fine. The US is afraid of that and continues to support the Paki military who continue to screw them. It is better if the US loses this war, but the US won't give up in a hurry. they will continue to support the Paki military

Dipanker · Post by **Dipanker** » 25 Sep 2011 21:57

Ivanev wrote:
What Dr. Shiv is saying that, the US can't help the Balochi cause covertly or secretly. It has to intervene militarily to liberate Balochistan with significant military help, that would invite retaliation from Pakistani state. So, a full scale war would erupt. So, this would be lead to the same outcome as

1. The US going after the Haqqanis unilaterally.
2. Going for Paki Nukes.
3. Any other military action against PA.

So, all these paths lead to the same consequence. Judging which one is less risky and which one is more, is like playing russian roulette.

If Pakis don't stop Haqqanis from attacking US troops in Afghanistan, US will go after the Haqqanis, that is for sure. US is already killing them through drones but that certainly is not enough.

So after all the bluster is over Pakis will take the wise decision and hold back Haqqanis, that is the only rational thing to do.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 25 Sep 2011 22:03

Dilbu wrote:
Pak in their scenario will threaten to nuke India.
That will be like signing their own death warrant. Then their choice will be between going up in a mushroom cloud or giving up the clown jewels.

There is no historical template for the nuke aspect of such a situation. We should expect surrender/ compromise by India to be one of the options on the table when faced with threat of unacceptable levels of damage.

If we are serious, we should game the scenario, with red team thinking like TSPA. Trouble is, we don't have much clarity on how blue team thinks other than our wishful thoughts.

member_19648 · Post by **member_19648** » 25 Sep 2011 22:04

abhijitm wrote:^^ the question was whether US can or cannot. So my opinion is that they can but they will not.

Having the ability but not being able to use it tantamounts to not having the ability only! Anyways let us not discuss impossible scenarios then!

A small doubt: these days everyone blames the ISI for all evil that happens in that region. Even the mighty USA is helpless in front of it. What has the ISI really done to achieve such a super hero status?? Also, why are all the superpowers helpless in front of it, even with all their elite world class counter-intelligence units?? Is the ISI that good??

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 25 Sep 2011 22:15

I would like to quote Veerappan as an example, where all the statistics of sq.km of forests were thrown around by the media, all it took was a political will to put boots on the ground and get the job done. OBL is another example.

Without committing resources and having the political will to allocate the needed resources is the factor. Unless Unkil does that (demonstrate political will with boots on the ground), it is all empty talk. Sometimes I feel our netas have learnt this art from All-Powerful-Unkil. Dossier-bombs are a product of Unkilization of Indian politics.

Dipanker · Post by **Dipanker** » 25 Sep 2011 22:21

Ivanev wrote: Having the ability but not being able to use it tantamounts to not having the ability only! Anyways let us not discuss impossible scenarios then!

A small doubt: these days everyone blames the ISI for all evil that happens in that region. Even the mighty USA is helpless in front of it. What has the ISI really done to achieve such a super hero status?? Also, why are all the superpowers helpless in front of it, even with all their elite world class counter-intelligence units?? Is the ISI that good??

Not at all. Remember couple of years back TTP were killing ISI likes flies by attacking their offices at will?

What makes the difference is that Paki/ISI are able to use their terrorist arms such as Haqqanis or LeT which others lack.

For moments assume India military too had its own LeT's and Haqqanis and every ISI sponsored terrorist attack in India it was able to respond in the same manner using its proxies? That would neutralize ISI's advantage in using proxies, won't it?

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 25 Sep 2011 22:24

Ivanev wrote: Having the ability but not being able to use it tantamounts to not having the ability only! Anyways let us not discuss impossible scenarios then!

I am having money to buy iphone but I won't, and that doesn't tantamount me not having money

..ignore me.

Afghanistan and pakistan are ISI's water and they are king crocodile so when it comes to this region any power has to respect ISI. They will play game as per their rule. What unkil doing is pressure tactic and ISI won't budge unless there is an escalation. The magic word 'escalation' is missing in this american war of af-pak. Unfortunately no party is willing to play. This is like watching an endless boxing match where both are just dodging each other waiting other to blink.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 25 Sep 2011 22:27

I watched Fareed bhai on CNN thinking he would talk about Mullen's threatning flatulence to TSP. Nothing from him on that. Looks like his handlers from CIA/Pentagon did not give him any talking points. I didn't watch the other mouthpieces on other morning shows except to catch a glimpse. nothing again on TSP. What does this mean? Looks like Sanjaykumar's characterization is true, more noise than movement

. Or it could be that TSP begged for forgiveness and US has given it some time to come back with an answer or else. Next couple of days will be revealing.

menon s · Post by **menon s** » 25 Sep 2011 22:27

"America needs Pakistan, u r right, but not a Pakistan that will help kill American troops" Sen Lindsay Graham , South Carolina.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 25 Sep 2011 22:34

menon s

That is tough talk. I was disappointed he didn't mention TSP terror against India, but assuming he is serious about taking on TSP, that is still benefitial to India.

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 25 Sep 2011 22:37

^^ I think the US is very carefully not mentioning 'India' word in this war of words.

Dipanker · Post by **Dipanker** » 25 Sep 2011 22:40

^^ Except for our FM SM Krishna who has made "I told you so" type statements, totally unnecessary at this time.

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 25 Sep 2011 22:43

^^ totally

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 25 Sep 2011 22:52

Short of a JDAM delivery on the US, Pakistan need not fear any US attack on Pindi/Isloo. That is the only US redline for a direct attack on the heart of the Paki Army. In the meantime the ISI can and will continue to kill US soldiers at will using their proxies. There will be some elevated levels of noise after each attack such as Mullen types delivering strong statements which will subside after some time. Sure there will be drone attacks on Waziristan et al, but never any direct attack on the ISI/Paki Army handlers in Pindi/Isloo.

The reasons are obvious. The US will go for the lowest cost solution to the problem. What is the problem? Keeping Afghanistan from again becoming a planning/training ground for jehadi attacks on US interests ala 9/11. Mounting a large scale attack on the world's 5th/6th largest army is certainly not the most cost effective solution to this problem. From the US standpoint it is not the most cost effective solution even with 100% Indian participation in such a venture. Hence it will not happen.

kasthuri · Post by **kasthuri** » 25 Sep 2011 22:55

My guess is that Unkil would start digging the AQ Khan issue now...

Mahendra · Post by **Mahendra** » 25 Sep 2011 22:57

Granted that Krishna is a sheikh chilli and is the FM only because he is a boot licker of the die-nasty but why deprive him of the chance of sprinkling of some garam masala on the Baki-Amriki Musharaff. Senor Krishna's comments will only serve to vitiate the fake war of words between company bahadur and his favourite sepoy

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 25 Sep 2011 22:58

meanwhile dengue epidemic in punjab
Sindh is under flood and no epidemic there! Or it has been just ignored?

Altair · Post by **Altair** » 25 Sep 2011 22:59

abhijitm wrote:^^ I think the US is very carefully not mentioning 'India' word in this war of words.

What is interesting to notice is that US seems to encourage an idea of "two" Pakistans. One that is actively encouraging and supporting killing of US troops and another Pakistan which will support US. I am surprised and feel sorry for people who believe in ghosts and goblins. They need professional help.
There is no such thing as "Pakistan" which will help US eliminate extremists or extremism inside Pakistan. How many can they possibly eliminate or kill? Do they have any idea how many uneducated,unemployed and rabidly religious people are there in Pakistan? They are terrorists in waiting room. Even if US manages to eliminate Haqqanis in a surgical strike tonight,another Durrani network will comeup! What would they do then?
The problem is the state of Pakistan and its rabidly Islamic military's growing nuclear arsenal. As long as Pakistani military holds the nuclear arsenal, there will be many more Haqqani networks and future Durrani or some Sultani networks who will be actively working and plotting for the destruction of US and establish caliphate from Sumatra till Europe.
Unless there is a political will to defang Pakistan, the cost of not acting today will be much higher tomorrow.

SM Krishna mouths off everyday of the week like a bumbling idiot. He should take a day off for a change.

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 25 Sep 2011 23:05

should circulate this in the US. From ISI mouthpiece with loooveee
Admadinejad in the UN

The speech of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to the UN General Assembly on Thursday was remarkable for the force with which it overturned many of the presumptions underlying modern history, and thus the motives of action of modern states.

However, his drawing of parallels between the Holocaust and 9/11 makes his speech of interest to historians of the age as a whole rather than specialists in these two events. His speech would be of as much interest to historians as to Foreign Offices, but it shows something that it seems the Pakistani political elite finds impossible to understand, that the American alliance must be abandoned at once.