Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Sep 22, 2011

Mahendra · Post by **Mahendra** » 25 Sep 2011 23:06

I think Pakistan is a strangulated pile on the Amriki Musharaff, it can be excised but will recur because of the dietary habits of the great Khan, the Great Khan is left with no options other than applying balm on its piles when the piles become fiery red and threaten to explode

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 25 Sep 2011 23:21

ldev wrote:Short of a JDAM delivery on the US, Pakistan need not fear any US attack on Pindi/Isloo. That is the only US redline for a direct attack on the heart of the Paki Army.

I think all it will take is Faisal Shahzad 2.0 to trigger a violent US response on Pakistan. Election year politics make it a foregone conclusion. The last thing Obama needs is to show restraint and be pilloried by the Perrys, Bachmanns and even Romney as being soft on security. Lindsay Graham is going to lobby hard for a strike.

Miranshah is in the cross hairs. A few stray bombs will land on the PA compound across the street from the Haqqanis.

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 25 Sep 2011 23:25

Chinese VP is going to announce some measures to please Bakis....................may be some kind of army deployment. It suits Chinese. They have pretext. Baki are ready for anything and US does not want to confront Chinese. Talibanis (haqqiniese or what ever) will go dormant and US will be happy. But Chinese will be there............bad for India. IMO

PS: Fox news has became respected source of information.......suddenly

Nihat · Post by **Nihat** » 25 Sep 2011 23:35

Us is not striking Pakiland directly anytime soon, it's too inconvenient for them as popular sentiment is against a war and the objective is shady at best . The Haqqani network is disorganized and can vanish deep into hostile territory as far as US is concerned. US would be more than happy to keep going as they are right now and maybe step up efforts in destabilizing TSP further , buy off generals and ISI folks as best as they can to work against TSP and then see what kind of position they are in in 5 yrs. time.

shravan · Post by **shravan** » 25 Sep 2011 23:47

Gunfire, Possible Explosion at Kabul Building Believed to House CIA
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headlines/2 ... house-cia/

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 25 Sep 2011 23:49

[url=http://www.d%20%20%20awn.c%20om/2011/09/25/khar-to-address-unga-on-tuesday.html']Khar to address UNGA on Tuesday[/url]

Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar will address the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) on Tuesday.

Pakistani news channels had reported that she was being called back to Islamabad immediate by the Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani to speak to the All Parties Conference being convened in the capital.

After delivering her speech, Khar will leave for Pakistan,

Meanwhile CIA created Haqqani network
http://www. da wn . c om/2011/09/25/cia-created-haqqani-network-rehman-malik.html

ISLAMABAD: Interior Minister Rehman Malik on Sunday said that Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) of the United States not Pakistan created the Haqqani network and trained its members.

Talking to media representatives at a ceremony here, Malik said that the Haqqani network was present in Afghanistan and those claiming otherwise should provide evidence of its presence in Pakistan .

What evidence A dossier with JDAM?

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 25 Sep 2011 23:49

RajeshA wrote:
Cosmo_R wrote:Could you elaborate on why this is infeasible?. On the surface, an independent Balochistan opens Afghanistan to the sea and changes the dependence calculus.
shiv saar has explained on quite a few occasions that Baloch are not sufficiently trained as soldiers or do not have the hardware to wage a good war, i.e. if I understood him correctly.

Balochis are relatively few in number unlike Bengalis. Also Iran won't stand for an independent Balochistan which would be Sunni if I am not mistaken.

sudeepj · Post by **sudeepj** » 25 Sep 2011 23:51

I think Shiv and many in the forum are misinterpreting the recent US outbursts.

The US and Pakistan have a relationship, this relationship is one that has now become transactional in nature, and even that is beginning to fray.

The US has many options on the table, ranging from suspension of the direct foreign aid it provides, to market access, to sanctions and so on.

On the other hand, its the Pakistanis that are running out of options. What can they do to the US?
1. Close the supply lines.
- Big deal, 70% of the supplies already come through the north. This is circuitous, but still manageable.
2. Do another 9/11
- That will bring down the wrath of the Khan on the Pakistani establishment. They will be dismembered with independent Baluchistan, Sindh emerging in a few years time.
3. Restart the nuclear trade
- With whom? There arent that many customers left. Iran doesnt need them, Libya is out, and what further will they provide to NK? Myanmar is the only nuclear customer left.. and uncle can win them over to their side in a heartbeat.
4. Lash out at India, to bring out the reflexive peace makers in the US
- India is playing the role of a dead elephant to a perfection. Poke it, prod it, it just wont react. And like it or not, security has increased in India, so has the number of security forces. We now have about half a million men more in arms than 10 years ago!
5. Increase the level of violence in Afghanistan.
- This will have a blow back effect on Pakistan too. After all Afghanistan is so far away, the local murtads in Isloo so close.. Also, simply increasing the violence will not make the US walk away..

To me, it doesnt appear that Pakistan has a ton of options here. They are trying to punch above their weight.

Observations about the US are a little flawed
IMO..
1. US is not an effete country. Every show, every movie is full of violence, war and gore. War and violence is a part of the national consciousness.
2. They are expert planners and movers of war supplies and material. I doubt if any other country could have sustained two over seas wars for so long.
3. There is an understanding in the US among many, that the real battlefield against Islamism is Afghanistan.

Being such expert planners, they wont escalate an overseas situation till they are sure, that they can move the material needed to fight a shooting war to the location. Pakistanis, ofcourse think otherwise.. Time will tell which party is right.

Raja Bose · Post by **Raja Bose** » 26 Sep 2011 00:03

The Pakis are bankrupt with people starving and dying from dengue/bullets/bombs/enemas, yet they are taking US aid, publicly issuing warnings to US on US soil using la femme Khar and on the ground are still merrily burning NATO supply lines and beheading US troops back home. And the US can only react by approving the next tranche of billion US$ to them as donation while even the mighty US arms complex lays off people in 1000s. Now that is conclusive evidence that the Pakis have balls (a pair of which belong to the US and is ensconced in their gnarled hands).

The Indians are flush with money, economy is booming, they are giving US aid (in terms of massive weapons sales), yet get issued warnings by by every 2-bit US diplo-mutt while India burns and its soldiers and civilians pay the ultimate price.

So as abhorrent and probably naive as it may sound (and earn me a ban and a million stribes on my musharraf from other jingos), India needs to act a bit like the Pakis when it deals with other powerful nations. Let's not get mired in the moral high-ground stuff like "we are different from them" (aka kuch to farak hai humme aur unme), "we cannot stoop to their level" becoz the truth is that we are worse than them in context of how we conduct our foreign policy. In terms of conducting their foreign policy, the US is not any cleaner than the Pakis - they are exactly at the same level as them.

We behave like the Nawabs of Lucknow with plenty of power which is blunted by our refined phele-aap-huzoor polite manners. Pakis behave like the mangy street mongrel which needs to survive at all costs and scratches/bites at anything it perceives to be threatening to it, real or imagined. The US OTOH is all dressed up in nice lush coat but when push comes to shove, that lush coat comes off and it transforms into its mongrel avatar pretty fast - Ditto for the Chipandas though the Chipandas are less smooth in their transformation.

The problem is when the other side is also a vile mongrel and thats when they meet their match - like they have with the Pakis and to a large extent, NoKos.

Raja Bose · Post by **Raja Bose** » 26 Sep 2011 00:08

sudeepj wrote: IMO..
1. US is not an effete country. Every show, every movie is full of violence, war and gore. War and violence is a part of the national consciousness.
2. They are expert planners and movers of war supplies and material. I doubt if any other country could have sustained two over seas wars for so long.
3. There is an understanding in the US among many, that the real battlefield against Islamism is Afghanistan.

4. They also have a real abhorrence for large number of body bags being shipped back home.

sudeepj wrote: To me, it doesnt appear that Pakistan has a ton of options here. They are trying to punch above their weight.

Pakis never had a ton of options - ever (just like a cornered mongrel). And they have been punching above their weight ever since they came into existence (just like a cornered mongrel). Nothing new there and hardly anything has changed becoz of it either except the gentlemards of the neighborhoods are more fearful than ever of getting bitten by the mongrel and catching rabies.

Anujan · Post by **Anujan** » 26 Sep 2011 00:09

^^^
I said a long time ago that to succeed, you either need to bring a gun to the table or a jar of vaseline to the table. Pakis bring both, Indians bring neither.

Raja Bose · Post by **Raja Bose** » 26 Sep 2011 00:12

^^Heck, in addition the Indians are also asked to pay for the jar of Vaseline which is given to them for applying on their musharraf at the meeting and are also asked to pay for the Pakis gun and then apologize for appearing to be threatening.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 26 Sep 2011 00:14

ABC News:
Gunfire..Explosion at Kabul Building Believed to House CIA

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 26 Sep 2011 00:22

Cyril Almeida's take on what pukes are up to
worth a read. Almeida is a shrewd reader of tea-leaves.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 26 Sep 2011 00:26

rsingh wrote:Chinese VP is going to announce some measures to please Bakis....................may be some kind of army deployment. It suits Chinese. They have pretext. Baki are ready for anything and US does not want to confront Chinese. Talibanis (haqqiniese or what ever) will go dormant and US will be happy. But Chinese will be there............bad for India. IMO

PS: Fox news has became respected source of information.......suddenly

Probably the chinese guy is there to review status of strategic asse(t)s.

Manny · Post by **Manny** » 26 Sep 2011 01:18

OK..if not Baluchistan, the US can offer to bring the Pashtoons into one country. Divide up Afghanistan. Afghanistan (Northern part including Kabul) and Pastooinstan. The Pashtoons may like it. The Talibans (Mullah Omar) could buy it.

This may bring the Pakistan Army/ISI to be "reasonable"?

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 26 Sep 2011 01:29

One step US can easily take without getting into shooting match with Pukes is to block the sea lanes of Pakmalia. By training the Somalian pirates , Poakers have aleady provided the pretext. Naval blokcade and push from Kandhar toward Karachi can be the final curtain over terrorist state . With Krakoram blocked, PRC wont be able to send much help, no more than few tons of rat posion for Poakers to do the needful.

Mahendra · Post by **Mahendra** » 26 Sep 2011 01:33

Make up your mind Prem, are they rats or cockroaches?

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 26 Sep 2011 01:35

Well if US supplies get drowned in the Pakistani Ocean of Terror, then US too can sink all Pakistani supplies in the Indian Ocean - everything from Oil to every basic supply. Full Quarantine of the Infection! Full Embargo of the Pig!

Anytime any NATO truck burns on the roadways to Afghanistan, USA can ensure that an Oil tanker bringing in Oil to Pakistan has to return back without dropping anchor in Pakistan.

Dipanker · Post by **Dipanker** » 26 Sep 2011 01:38

Prem wrote:One step US can easily take without getting into shooting match with Pukes is to block the sea lanes of Pakmalia. By training the Somalian pirates , Poakers have aleady provided the pretext. Naval blokcade and push from Kandhar toward Karachi can be the final curtain over terrorist state . With Krakoram blocked, PRC wont be able to send much help, no more than few tons of rat posion for Poakers to do the needful.

Exactly my plan! Pakis will run out of oil in 11 days as per their own admission. Bombing a few fuel depot will expedite the process.

saadhak · Post by **saadhak** » 26 Sep 2011 01:41

Here's another perspective from NYT i.e. non-state actor Haqqanis with a free hand over which neither TSPA nor Unkil are able to exert control.
Unkil wants TSPA to fight and take on the Haqqanis, but they are neither willing nor able to do so because they anticipate a blowback.

In talks with the Americans, the leader of the ISI, Lt. Gen. Ahmed Shuja Pasha, has said he has “contact” with the Haqqanis, a senior American official said. “But he denies he has command and control.” The official said it appeared that the Haqqanis had developed into such skilled fighters over several decades that they had the Pakistani Army cowed.

Fits with Kiyani's response of "I'll make a phone call" when asked by the NATO commander to stop the explosives laden truck attack which injured over 70 US soldiers.

According to American officials and Pakistani analysts, it appeared that the Pakistani Army had struck a bargain with the Haqqanis: The Haqqanis would be free to fight in Afghanistan, in part looking after Pakistan’s interests, and in return, the Haqqanis would not attack Pakistan.

If the Pakistani army attacked Haqqani fighters in their bases in North Waziristan, the blowback in the form of terrorist attacks in Pakistani cities and towns could be overwhelming, Pakistani military analysts say.

In a startling image of the apparent symbiosis between the Pakistani military — which controls the ISI — and the Haqqani fighters, both forces have bases in Miram Shah, the main town in North Waziristan.

Five brigades of the Pakistani Army, about 15,000 soldiers, and the Frontier Corps, a paramilitary force of about 10,000 men, have never touched the Haqqanis, American officials familiar with the situation say. Visitors to Miram Shah have said the army facilities are within sight of the Haqqani compounds. Estimates of the Haqqani fighting strength in North Waziristan vary from 10,000 to 15,000. Technically, Sirajuddin Haqqani, who runs the group, is a member of the Afghan Taliban leadership headed by Mullah Muhammad Omar and based in Quetta, the capital of Baluchistan Province in southwest Pakistan.

The Pakistani Army struggled to defeat the Pakistani Taliban in battles in the Swat Valley and South Waziristan in 2009 and 2010, but the Taliban are still present in both places, a senior American military official said. “So why would they take on the Haqqanis, who are world class fighters?” the official asked.

As much as the Americans criticize the Pakistanis for not taking on the Haqqanis, the Pakistanis scoff at the inability of the Americans to deal with the Haqqanis on the war front in Afghanistan.

In a sarcastic column in the English-language newspaper The News on Thursday, Farrukh Saleem wrote, “If over the past decade the lone superpower has failed to tame 10,000 to 15,000 tribesmen, then the American military-intelligence complex has really failed and should be heading home.”

Obviously this can also be a Paki pretence for plausible deniability that the 'senior American official' has fallen for.
==============
Extra quote - Amirkhan knows TSP is BSing about the threat from India in Afghanistan.

Thus, the Haqqani fighters who hold sway over Paktika, Paktia and Khost Provinces in Afghanistan, and who are also strong in the capital, Kabul, and in the provinces around it, present a valuable hedge against the perceived India threat, which American officials say is overblown.

Anujan · Post by **Anujan** » 26 Sep 2011 01:50

^^^

Does anyone remember Musharrat's oft-repeated statement during Kargil that went along the lines of "They are not Pakistani forces, but the Mujahideen fighting in Kargil. If India agrees to negotiate on Kashmir, Pakistan army will use its influence and good will with the Mujahids to persuade them to withdraw"

This whole "we dont control the Haqqanis but we might be able to call them" is just semantics that everyone (the west and India) swallows hook-line and sinker. It reminds me of a post I made (parodying the debates we have) about whether Mumbai attacks were an act of war, coordinated, funded and initiated by the ISI or whether it was a LeT module gone rogue:

"During the planning phase Mr Terrorist was in the payroll of the ISI, whereas during the time period he issued the actual command to his subordinates to initiate the mission he was on medical leave & loss of pay. Notwithstanding medical insurance reimbursements by ISI during the 1 week time period in which the project was given a go-ahead, according to interpretation precedent set by Mr Feudal vs Government of Pakistan judged by the Kangaroo Court of Pakistan by Chief justice Moron-bin-Jihadi-Big-Pocketi, the loss of pay is pro-forma documentary evidence to the effect of non-employment"

BijuShet · Post by **BijuShet** » 26 Sep 2011 02:56

From Tribune news article (posting in full). More progress by USA wrt TSP.
US senator says 'all options on table' on Pakistan

By Reuters - Published: September 25, 2011
A protester holds a placard towards the camera as others in the background attempt to set fire to a U.S. flag during a demonstration in Hyderabad September 25, 2011. PHOTO: AFP

WASHINGTON: The United States (US) will have to consider all options “including defending our troops” in confronting Pakistani support for militant networks fighting US soldiers in the region, a US senator said on Sunday.

“We need to put Pakistan on notice,” Senator Lindsey Graham, a Republican member of the Armed Services Committee said on “Fox News Sunday.”

US military leaders said last week the Pakistani army’s powerful ISI spy agency supported the Haqqani militant group that Washington blames for an attack on its embassy and other targets in Kabul, Afghanistan. Pakistan denied the allegations.

Graham said Pakistan has to choose between helping the Haqqani network and helping the US fight al Qaeda in Afghanistan and border regions of Pakistan.

“The idea of Pakistan’s intelligence agencies supporting terrorism as a national strategy needs to come to an end,” Graham said

“It destabilizes Afghanistan. They’re killing American soldiers. If they continue to embrace terrorism as part of their national strategy we’re going to have to put all options on the table, including defending our troops.”

Graham said Washington should reconsider assistance to Pakistan and noted last week’s approval by a Senate committee of $1 billion to Pakistan for counterterrorism operations. The panel made that and any economic aid conditional on Islamabad cooperating with Washington against militant groups, including the Haqqanis.

The senator did not elaborate on what US military action he would advocate if the situation did not change.

“I am saying that the Pakistan is engaging in hostile acts against the US and our ally Afghanistan,” he said.

BijuShet · Post by **BijuShet** » 26 Sep 2011 02:59

From Tribune news article (posting in full). More progress by rest of world wrt TSP.
‘No time and respect’: World Bank, IMF chiefs refuse to meet Pakistani delegation

By Irshad Ansari - Published: September 25, 2011
‘Highly successful’ meetings were however held with lower management officials. PHOTO: AFP/ FILE

ISLAMABAD: The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) managing director and the World Bank’s president have refused to meet the delegation being led by Finance Minister Dr Abdul Hafeez Sheikh in Washington. IMF’s senior deputy managing director Mr David Lipton however is scheduled to meet the Pakistani delegation today.

Meanwhile, during meetings with IMF’s lower level management, the organisation has agreed to provide technical assistance in areas of debt management, fiscal discipline and tax enhancements. Also, a schedule has also been agreed upon between the two entities under Article 4, to examine Pakistan’s economic progress. In this regard, a senior member of the delegation told Express that though Pakistan no longer needs to abide by the Standby Arrangement Programme (SBA) since the programme and its conditions no longer exist, but even then they have told the IMF that they will still follow its conditions. The member said that though IMF’s managing director Christine Logarde and the World Bank’s president Robert Vilke had refused to meet the Pakistani delegation, but nonetheless ‘highly successful’ meetings were held with other management officials from both organisations.

Sources said another meeting will be held today with IMF’s senior deputy managing director. They added that finance minister has met World Bank and IMF officials on the sidelines, while requesting them for technical assistance in three specific areas. Officials of the Pakistan embassy in Washington were unavailable for comments.

(With additional reporting by Huma Imtiaz in Washington DC)

Published in The Express Tribune, September 25th, 2011.

Raja Bose · Post by **Raja Bose** » 26 Sep 2011 03:20

Dipanker wrote:
Prem wrote:One step US can easily take without getting into shooting match with Pukes is to block the sea lanes of Pakmalia. By training the Somalian pirates , Poakers have aleady provided the pretext. Naval blokcade and push from Kandhar toward Karachi can be the final curtain over terrorist state . With Krakoram blocked, PRC wont be able to send much help, no more than few tons of rat posion for Poakers to do the needful.
Exactly my plan! Pakis will run out of oil in 11 days as per their own admission. Bombing a few fuel depot will expedite the process.

Bhaiyya ji, how will that happen hain, when Unkil is shivering in his jockeys thinking about which non-state actor of Paki origin might do a nau-gyarah redux inside Massa or against troops in Mid-east/Afghanistan, if they hit Pakis hard?

Dipanker · Post by **Dipanker** » 26 Sep 2011 03:42

Raja Bose wrote:
Dipanker wrote:
Exactly my plan! Pakis will run out of oil in 11 days as per their own admission. Bombing a few fuel depot will expedite the process.
Bhaiyya ji, how will that happen hain, when Unkil is shivering in his jockeys thinking about which non-state actor of Paki origin might do a nau-gyarah redux inside Massa or against troops in Mid-east/Afghanistan, if they hit Pakis hard?

Babu moshai, if it ever get to that stage it will happen. Otherwise Paki will emerge as super power of the world!

Raja Bose · Post by **Raja Bose** » 26 Sep 2011 03:54

No saar it won't get to that stage - we would be the happiest people on earth if it did though. Depending on the definition of a sooper-power, they might be one already!

Anyhow, the usual Paki drama cycle goes as follows:
1) Pakis get caught with their hand in the cookie jar for the n'th time.

2) Unkil makes strong statement and show of farce.

3) BRF jingos go "Ab aayega mazaa" and grab some popcorn.

4) Pakis feign hurt innocence, proceed to halal a few of their own abduls to prove they are bearing the brunt of everything.

5) Unkil stresses importance of keeping channels open and approves more baksheesh.

Unkil gives Pakis a conditional pat on the back and if Indian balls are anywhere in sight, also gives them a kick for good measure and tells them to be nice to their retarded Paki brothers and not make any sudden moves.

6) BRF jingos go

....and the cycle repeats as it has for the last 60 odd years.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 26 Sep 2011 04:05

Raja Bose wrote:^^Heck, in addition the Indians are also asked to pay for the jar of Vaseline which is given to them for applying on their musharraf at the meeting and are also asked to pay for the Pakis gun and then apologize for appearing to be threatening.

That's because Mr. S Magoo Krishna (yes that is his middle name) reads from Kiyani's script which refers to explosive-laden trucks and his wig moves as he squints--causing panic because they think it might explode.

In short, sowing fear, uncertainty and doubt among all including those he's representing (whoever that is). 'Tis said: History repeats itself. The first time as tragedy and the second as farce

Johnny Walker ain't got nothing on this fella when it comes to comic interludes. Verily chankyan

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 26 Sep 2011 04:11

Mahendra wrote:Make up your mind Prem, are they rats or cockroaches?

I'm torn, really torn. I liked Ben http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_%28film%29

OTOH, the roaches in http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iw_zUUE4BE0

bubbled up a lot of empathy (as well)

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Sep 2011 04:39

As TSP gets cornered they will strike out at India. The good Brigadier stated the Pak deterrent policy in the old Atlantic article.

menon s · Post by **menon s** » 26 Sep 2011 05:03

Afghan attack: Gunfire heard at Kabul 'CIA station'
A US official confirmed there was an attack on the facility previously known as the Ariana hotel, describing the situation as "fluid".
The CIA has not commented, but Afghan counter-intelligence sources told the BBC at least one attacker was killed.
It comes two weeks after militants attacked the US embassy in Kabul.
They also fired rocket-propelled grenades at Nato headquarters in the city.
Some 25 people died in the 20-hour attack, which Washington blamed on the Haqqani militant group.
The US has accused Pakistan's spy agency, the ISI, of supporting the group - a claim denied by Islamabad.
Earlier this week, Burhanuddin Rabbani, the chief of Afghanistan's High Peace Council, was killed in a suicide bomb attack in the Afghan capital. The Taliban said they carried out that attack.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-15055705
It seems like the Paks are itching for a fight!

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 26 Sep 2011 05:44

Dipanker wrote:^^ Except for our FM SM Krishna who has made "I told you so" type statements, totally unnecessary at this time.

Why is it unnecessary to say it like it is? Is India so important? Or Krishna for that matter? India is an irrelevant weak state that is being beaten by all the great powers around. It is Pakistan and the US whose words carry any meaning in these parts. "US warns Pakistan" and we cheer "Pakistan and US warn India" and we are scared

shivajisisodia · Post by **shivajisisodia** » 26 Sep 2011 05:57

Shiv Sab,

Would you agree that at this moment, there is an open rift between the Paki and the US ? Things may change, but at this moment there is one and it has been building up slowly over the last year or so, when the US decided to withdraw from Afghan and realized that if they have to withdraw and still not have Taliban take over in pretty short order, Paki has to throw Taliban under the bus and Paki has been refusing to do so.

Given the above, why in your opinion, Sir, is the US not playing the Kashmir card ? In other words, why is US not throwing the Kashmiri separatists under the bus, if not to punish Paki but to at least warn the PAki that US is serious and that this is the first salvo and that there would be more adverse consequences if Paki doesnt cry "Uncle" ? Dont you think that by disawowing the Kashmir separatists and de-facto recognition of at least Indian Kashmir as undisputedly Indian territory will hurt the Pakis where it counts and be an appropriate shot across the Paki bow ?

Dont you think, Sir, that at this moment, instead of crying "I told you so", like children, we should engage US privately, boost its ego (that is what diplomacy is all about), express sympathy and try to strike an advantageous deal with the Americans ? Even if the attempt fails, dont you think that attempt is a correct approach ?

Your opinion on this, Sir ?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 26 Sep 2011 06:08

ramana wrote:As TSP gets cornered they will strike out at India. The good Brigadier stated the Pak deterrent policy in the old Atlantic article.

This is a possibility. I have no specific proof but I get the impression that
1. Even with 75% of their troops facing India, Pakistan's force levels are depleted.
2. There have been some serious mutinies in the Pakistan army

So while I have been insisting that US options are limited, Pakistani options too are limited. I think both the US and Pakistan have reached a stalemate of sorts. One of the problems Pakistan faces is that war with India will make it impossible for them to face up to any US intervention in the north against Haqqani.

The second thing is the "dog that did not bark" factor - that is exactly what is happening with US arms aid to Pakistan? It is what we don't hear that may be very significant. The US may well have clamped down on supplies of spares and slowed down on new supplies. The US would be "shamed in public" by Pakistan accusations if they stated this in public. But if the Pakistan army is suffering from lack of spares/supplies they will never admit that in public. So I would look out for small news "tucked away inside" items that indicate this possibility.

If Pakistan does start war with India they will probably have to go for a nuclear option soon. Using a nuke changes the picture a great deal. In fact imagine the funny but not funny situation of Pakistan using two nukes against India and India choosing not to retaliate immediately using nuclear weapons? That would mean:
1. Pakistan has broken the 6 plus decade long nuclear taboo
2. India is not going to help the US/non proliferation lobby by getting into a nuclear exchange with Pakistan and solving the Pakistan problem for them

Pakistan would survive after using a nuke on India. That would give us material for another 400,000 BRF threads. Imagine how safe and secure Israel, Japan, South Korea etc would feel as the US watches this drama of India getting nuked and not retaliating to put Pakis in their place.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 26 Sep 2011 06:22

Shriman RB ,
Good old Uncle Sam can and will take care of domestic Poakrats within a week. Poakers for sure will unleash the sleeper cells in India and other countries joining the blockade but it will help making mind of mighty Moes of world to finish the job for good.
IMHO,Just the threat of blockade will wet the salwar in a second and By Beating the barking dog of China to pulp , Uncle will also seize the initiative to mould new world order under its own benign leadership. Obama can then fight upcoming election as President who restored the American prestige,confidence, leadership Aadi Aadi.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 26 Sep 2011 06:26

shivajisisodia wrote: Your opinion on this, Sir ?

I think there is already deep cooperation between India and the US. But I am not sure how deep that goes. Every single event that I see suggests to me that the obvious way out is to increase India US cooperation. And a whole lot of news items suggest that this is exactly what is happening. However for the purpose of forum discussion I am making four assumptions (mainly for fun)

1. The US is so great it does not need any help from India
2. the US controls Indian actions
3. The US can handle Pakistan in a trice
4. India is weak and our leaders are too stupid <quote favorite examples from 5000 years of history as well as epics like Mahabharat>

I have deliberately decided to describe the world through the lens of a person who believes the above four points as being true an I am trying to explain events in the region by assuming that those four points are true. It is more fun to do that. India siting quiet and the US doing what it is doing suggests to me a level of cooperation exists today that was absent a few years ago. Krishna's statements will mean very little when seen in that light. It could be deliberate as well - but we need to see if there are any public reactions/retraction.

shivajisisodia · Post by **shivajisisodia** » 26 Sep 2011 06:33

^^^^

Shiv Sab,

How about the following possibilities, Sir ?

1. US is too stupid, when it comes to handling Paki and how to handle Paki.

2. US has a mental block when it comes to an alliance with India. This mental block causes it to act against it's own interest.

3. And yes, India is not too weak, but Indian political establishment and babus are too busy making money to have the time to actually "see" that there are openings at the moment and take a diplomatic initiative to aggressively "educate" the Americans and try to eliminate the "American mental block vis-a-vis India".

What if your assumption about an already secret understanding between India and US false ? Nothing in India's history, particularly recent history suggests such sophistication in any policy, leave aside foreign policy.

I seem to think that there isnt one and that we should aim for a secret understanding of the sort that you say, already exists. You say, it already exists. I think you are giving the Indians and the Americans too much credit, particularly when it comes to American dealings in the subcontinent and its neighborhood.

Besides, what India needs from the US right now is not just a secret understanding for something more strategic and long term, but an immediate and a very public throwing of the Kashmiri separatists under the bus, which would settle the Kashmir dispute (with the exception of India reclaiming POK), at once and forever. The oxygen that Kashmiri separatists live on is the support they have in certain quarters in the US.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 26 Sep 2011 06:35

menon s wrote:
Afghan attack: Gunfire heard at Kabul 'CIA station'
A US official confirmed there was an attack on the facility previously known as the Ariana hotel, describing the situation as "fluid".
The CIA has not commented, but Afghan counter-intelligence sources told the BBC at least one attacker was killed.
It comes two weeks after militants attacked the US embassy in Kabul.
They also fired rocket-propelled grenades at Nato headquarters in the city.
Some 25 people died in the 20-hour attack, which Washington blamed on the Haqqani militant group.
The US has accused Pakistan's spy agency, the ISI, of supporting the group - a claim denied by Islamabad.
Earlier this week, Burhanuddin Rabbani, the chief of Afghanistan's High Peace Council, was killed in a suicide bomb attack in the Afghan capital. The Taliban said they carried out that attack.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-15055705
It seems like the Paks are itching for a fight!

Smoke's coming out of Leon's ears right about now. This is getting personal-spy v spy. It's Khandan

ki izzat time. I'm investing in popcorn.

They are dissing Obama big time in a re-election year. This is change we are going to believe in.

I'm apprehensive about Faisal 2.0 now.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 26 Sep 2011 07:32

How about this approach by khan?

1. In a UN session, get the approval for sanctions on Pukestan.

2. Naval blockade.

3. Ban all their imports into US and Europe.

How would pukestan react?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 26 Sep 2011 07:32

shivajisisodia wrote: I seem to think that there isnt one and that we should aim for a secret understanding of the sort that you say, already exists. You say, it already exists. I think you are giving the Indians and the Americans too much credit, particularly when it comes to American dealings in the subcontinent and its neighborhood.

Which is why I don't care about what I think and try and build scenarios out of what everyone else says and see if it starts looking good or absurd. I am particularly attracted to scenarios that look more and more absurd and fit in less and less with observed statements and news in the press. Nothing that I say or think really matters. I have a mental picture in my mind. It may be complete rubbish. I sometimes state what I think and when I find disagreement I find it more fun to accept the other person's view and explain the world using his eyes. Sometimes that explains things well. At other times it is seriously funny and I love it when that happens. It is ultimately time pass onlee.

Everyone in the world gets his opportunity to be stupid and everyone tends to use that opportunity and not let it go waste. Even world leaders and leaders of nations. Sometimes I find that the world is best explained by that rule. If we start thinking X is more clever, Y is less clever or "I am more clever You are less clever" it is a distortion of that rule. It may or may not be right but it is fun to see the world in new and different ways. If I was sitting with a rifle on the LOC I would not have time for such time pass and I must not take myself too seriously. Anyone who takes me seriously does so at his own risk.