Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

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vijayk
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by vijayk »

http://www.firstpost.com/politics/upa-p ... 98261.html
UPA policies are leading to a scorched earth syndrome
Taken together, the UPA’s social spending thrust (and benign neglect of economic reforms) amount to a scorched-earth policy.

Officially, it is all about inclusive growth and correcting historical wrongs to the disadvantaged. But the net effect of these policies will be to leave a fiscal and economic mess that no successor government will be able to handle easily. If Rahul Gandhi actually wins the elections in 2014, he will have a time-bomb on his hands.

The only thing that’s gone right for India this year is the monsoon. The Indian Meteorological Department predicted with considerable aplomb in June that the monsoon would be sub-normal. Thankfully, the prediction went wrong. The IMD now has the unenviable record of seven wrong forecasts out of 10.
The fiscal wrongs, created by excessive spending, excess borrowing, and failure to rein in oil subsidies, has had to be righted by a tougher-than-needed monetary policy of rising interest rates. The economy has already hit a speedbreaker. The GDP growth target has been brought down from 9 percent around budget-time to less than 8 percent now. The year will probably end well below 8 percent. Inflation is close to double-digits (9.78 percent), and the Index of Industrial Production was down to 3.3 percent in July.

To correct the fiscal wrong, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee is stamping on spending – but largely in the capital outlays area – which is making things worse. When government fails to spend on things like infrastructure, the slowdown can only accelerate as business incomes are crimped. Mukherjee should cut wasteful expenditure, not infrastructure and capital spending.
The Food Security Bill, primarily intended to ensure that no one goes hungry in India, by making rice available at Rs 3 and wheat at Rs 2 a kg, will cost over Rs 1,00,000 crore in food subsidies – thus busting the budget and pressuring inflation. To procure so much food for the scheme, minimum support prices will keep rising faster than inflation, and the free market for grains will be starved of supplies. Can this lead to anything but even more inflation?
The only answer to this puzzle is the possibility that the UPA has run out of ideas and is pursuing policies with the single-objective of winning the next election.

However, these policies will surely bankrupt the government by 2014. So is it planning a scorched earth policy from which no successor government can hope to escape? Or does it anyway expect to lose the next election, and so doesn’t care?
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by Hari Seldon »

Image

Its over. Time to declale the mythical one-sided 'lace' with the dlagon over for good and pretend like it never happened only, with a straight face of coulse.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by Singha »

er the key is GDP per capita, agri spending, internet users, higher edu and in all these the gap is <=12.
the other metrics are income driven like access to healthcare, electric consumption, birth rate, life expectancy, cars, TVs etc.

imo there's nothing too scary about the chart. just that they started growing fast around 15 years before us and have grown faster over this period...even if some of this growth is misdirected state sponsored spending. the aftereffects of such spending can be seen in the china economy thread.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by harbans »

Pranab Da is one of the old socialist kind of Congress veterans. I always thought it was a bad idea to make him the FM. He's certainly not the reform school and does well in the status quo'ist structure of power. His proximity to the Gandhi family nitwits make it doubly sure that he would equate infra spending as risk taking and cut on this rather than curtail wasteful expenditure and introduce much needed reforms. UPA term 2 should compare with one of the worst spells of governance in India in the last 60 years.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by Suraj »

Singha wrote:er the key is GDP per capita, agri spending, internet users, higher edu and in all these the gap is <=12.
the other metrics are income driven like access to healthcare, electric consumption, birth rate, life expectancy, cars, TVs etc.

imo there's nothing too scary about the chart. just that they started growing fast around 15 years before us and have grown faster over this period...even if some of this growth is misdirected state sponsored spending. the aftereffects of such spending can be seen in the china economy thread.
Not to mention that some of the data for India is stale. Literacy rate and life expectancy figures stand out - those are 2001 census figures, not the 2011 ones. The latest figures for both of those are ~69 years and ~70% . Interesting that Chinese life expectancy increased from 63 to 73 over 35+ years; ours increased from 63 to 69 in a decadal period, though this statistic tends to taper off rapidly at 70-75; we're almost there already, with differences soon to be small enough to be interesting just to Shanghai statistics bureau.

Consumption stats rise rapidly as an economy grows out of the low- to lower middle income category; we're just making that transition while they already have. Just like with cellphone penetration (a statistic notably missing from that graph - wonder why - because ours is higher than theirs ? :) ) other stats will rapidly increase over the next decade in our case. I would love to take a time machine and visit a BRF meeting a decade ago and say we'd have 850M mobile subscribers ten years hence; but I would probably have been laughed out of there.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by abhischekcc »

Hari Seldon wrote:Image

Its over. Time to declale the mythical one-sided 'lace' with the dlagon over for good and pretend like it never happened only, with a straight face of coulse.
And it is the shamelessly racist rag economist that is highlighting India's misery, forgetting that it is Britain robbery in India that is responsible for the state of affairs.

If those apologists of the empire REALLY care about India's poor, they should shame the british royals and aristocrats into giving up their evil begotten monies.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by harbans »

I would love to take a time machine and visit a BRF meeting a decade ago and say we'd have 850M mobile subscribers ten years hence; but I would probably have been laughed out of there.
Think i read it here earlier. There was a GOI Planning commission study IIRC, that predicted India would reach 500 million mobiles in year 2030. This was published in 2003 or 2004 again IIRC. Just for the perspective it would be great if someone could post that link again if aware.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by harbans »

That chart is not current levels of India indces 2011.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_census_of_India

Education is 74% literacy (Above 7 years of age). Should be better 15+ though? Internet users/ cars per 1000 and others are not too far. A good analysis would show the difference is not that marked, specially when one is comparing 2 economies growing at astronomical rates for 30 and 20 years respectively. One shouldn't judge a person by the clothes he wears if he outgrows himself every few years. But the Economist's credibility will continue to take a dump if it goes on pushing false comparisons and claiming it's India's latest figures.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by Singha »

> Education is 74% literacy (Above 7 years of age). Should be better 15+ though?

will likely be slightly less. junior school enrollment in india (as in many developing nations) is north of 90% now. its the illiterate adults (esp in upper end of working age band) who skew our stats down. the enrollment must have been less than current figures ten years ago, hence the fat tail effect.

from personal observation in numerous driving tours through the length and breath of south india, I can say pretty much all kids are going to junior school now. ofcourse the schools may not be great and they often have long walks / waits to get to and from school, but they are going to school in neat uniforms.
Theo_Fidel

Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by Theo_Fidel »

The entire chart above is a function of the one child policy. It was begun exactly 34 years ago and it is not a surprise that that was the last year we track closely to China.

The fertility rate, 1.2 % (far far below replacement) goes with the mortality and life expectancy rates. Because of the fewer children more resources can be allocated to each, so less child mortality, better literacy and longer life. Ther eis about 400 million missing Chinese right now because of this policy.

Personally I'm very heartened by how close we are getting to China.

The key statistic is the dependency rate. Our dividend is just beginning while China's is over. God help them.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by ArmenT »

gakakkad
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by gakakkad »

^^^ I said that before in this very Dhaga THAT Indian malnutrition is exaggerated... Not only is Indian poverty exaggerated , the dismalness of the health/social indicators is exaggerated too... Worst of all "56 % iNDIANS defecate on open" is so big and successful a myth that everyone seems to take it as a fact...


I read a TOI online edition article (was actually actually e-mailed to me by a tallel/deeple fliend ) that bla bla bla survey found that 56 % Indians crap in the open...Parks PSM (mind you a socialistic propaganda book fed to medical students in India) has an entire chapter devoted to toilets .. It puts the figure to be 10-15 % ..even that is greatly exaggerated...I was posted in a remote Indian village a few years ago... Most family had access to sanitation... If the stats mentioned in the newspapers was true we would have massive cholera /e-coli outbreaks every year... Like it happens in zimbawe or TSP...

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 200781.cms

No wonder TOI-TOI is an actual brand of toilets...


[url=http://ozdomainer.com/wp-content/upload ... f-alps.jpg] Image[url]
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by RamaY »

Singha wrote:er the key is GDP per capita, agri spending, internet users, higher edu and in all these the gap is <=12.
the other metrics are income driven like access to healthcare, electric consumption, birth rate, life expectancy, cars, TVs etc.

imo there's nothing too scary about the chart. just that they started growing fast around 15 years before us and have grown faster over this period...even if some of this growth is misdirected state sponsored spending. the aftereffects of such spending can be seen in the china economy thread.
One more thing that graph shows is GoI's failure to develop civic infra. Lets see if GoI can catchup. The indians are equal or ahead of Chinese.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by vina »

Hmm. This isn't looking good. The signs of 2008 are all over again and ol' vina's spidey sense is tingling again. I was sort of neutral on the market and actually took out my shorts and took losses on the long side the past week. Today , I decided I have had enough beating and took the losses and exited the longs that were bleeding and am ready to go fully short or at best market neutral.

With the SBI downgrade (I have no quarrel with Moody's on that. The UPA govt has been simply comatose and bent on running into a wall the past few years, and I think the luck ran out of the economic managers in the govt and the hard decisions have to be now taken in adverse circumstances in the true traditions of Kangress govts) , I think the govt has been called out.

All indications are that the Oiroes aren't going to pull their pants up and there is going to be a messy default in Greece and the Greeks pulling out of the Euro zone. And yeah, I think in the PIIGS, the P, Ir and G are lost causes and should be let go (the Uk stanis will underwrite the Irish), while all efforts must be made to save Italy and Spain, the two large fellas who are going to fall like dominoes when Greece goes.

Now, of course, in the classic Italian tradition of fiddling Neros , the modern day Nero, Berlusconi is throwing Bunga-Bunga parties and fancies himself as some sort of wild p*rn star, while Rome is burning.

Get out of the markets and stay out. And oh yeah, the commodities are melting. Brent looks like going below $100 .. Commodity corrections will be absolutely violent to say the least. Inflation will be truly dead with that kind of collapse and the RBI can start bringing down the interest rates to reflate the economy. The RBI has played it's cards well, as usual , while the GOI has totally screwed up.

And yeah, the currency bill will be used to put the gun to Chipanda's head and the thumb screws will be turned to let the currency float to remove the global imbalance. This is the modern gun boat diplomacy, no need for Brit gun ships to blast Kowloon or Commodore Perry to sail into Tokyo bay. Chipanda themselves gave their nuts over to AmirKhan's hands for him to squeeze anytime at leisure.

Interesting times folks. Remember, right now, more than returns, it is important to preserve capital. It is going to be a helluva ride in the next few weeks. Hang on tight and Good Luck.
Theo_Fidel

Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by Theo_Fidel »

http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes ... ality-rate
The implication of this and other facts is that Indian children are genetically smaller on average. A competing hypothesis - which says that nutrition improvements may take several generations - fails to explain how, without a genetic advantage, the far poorer SSA countries, which lag behind India in almost all vital statistics, could have pulled so far ahead of India in child nutrition. Moreover, the trend of the stunting proportions based on WHO standards, available for India since the late 1970s, would suggest that nearly all those born in the 1950s or before - the writer included - are stunted!
This is an absolute garbage article. What kind of tripe is this fool peddling. There is NO genetic difference between India & rest of world. Indian children born and brought up in UK & USA show minor/no differences in growth patterns over even European and 6'+ Nordic stock. I went to a local private High school which is 25% Desi and the desi boys were strapping 6'+ while their parents are frail 5' SDRE. In my native place the same genetic line produces very different development outcomes based on which family you belong to. And yes there are family groups of Indian genetic stock where just about every woman is 5'10"+ and men are 6'+ and live past 90 years on average.

There really is a problem of Indians not getting to their full development potential. It is not an under count or an exaggeration. This is not a sign of poverty IMO as the poverty wallahs proclaim. It is a sign of incomplete social reform. Enough focus is not being directed towards the nutrition of the following groups.

- Pregnant Women.
- Young girls.
- Age at first pregnancy.
- 50% of women are anemic yet untreated. They have no business having children yet they do.
- Women have less control over their reproductive function, over their domestic lives and their children's lives.
- Proper/Nutritive/well timed feeding of Under 5 children. More protein needed. esp. under 5.
- Dealing with tropical diseases. Like simple viral fevers and diarrhea that can strip away 6 months worth of nutritional progress in 1 week.
- First priority of food for Children & Women.
- Bad example being set by Wealthier Indians and particular execrable examples being set by Movies.
- Better Hygeine for Women/Mothers/Children.

I could go on & on. The causes of Mal-nutrition lie within the home in India. Very resistant to change. Even in middle class communities, we treat our women/girl children shabbily and this is their revenge on us. :(

WRT SSA children performing better, the underlying reason is that SSA children have a better diet and the status of their women, hard though it is to believe, is actually higher than India. Women tend to be entrepreneurs and have much more control over their domestic lives at least and their children's up-bringing leading to better outcomes.

There is one group of Indians who track better and closer to world standard. Manipuri's. But apparently not Assamese or Nagaland which is from the same stock. Status of women makes the difference.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by gakakkad »

^^^ While I agree with all the factors of malnutrition in India that you have pointed out I have a disagreement on the Genetic linkage of height.. Height being a polygenic trait , it's inheritance is not completely understood... The levels of malnutrition pointed out in various newspapers are greatly exaggerated.. We are no where near the west . I agree... but we are not as bad as (except some regions) sub saharan Africa..
My pediatrics teacher told us that when she was in madarssa there was 10 folds more number of PEM cases admitted in hospital compared to these days... Of course I did my mbbs from Guj which is a wealthier state so will have lower cases.. But according to her we ll reach the western levels in a decades time as far as health and nutrition is concerned..

Indian babies are on an average "smaller" than western ones ,even when adjusted for income .. Whether the difference is genetic or due to any other reason is unknown..But genetic factors are surely important....Birth weight and adult height do not have a correlation ... Adult height depends upon many other factors like age of puberty..

As far as Africans are concerned , they are genetically taller.. In fact with improved incomes they are getting shorter ... That is a mystery...People have often wondered about their height ...tHEY WERE TALL IN SPITE of everything..

The lack of any obvious pattern in these means and variances presents a challenge to the view that population mean heights are predominately determined by economic and sanitary environments. Africa is the poorest of the regions and has the highest disease burden yet is the tallest of the regions.

In all other countries income and height are correlated ..

http://www.pnas.org/content/104/33/13232.full

In general caucausoids and Africans tend to be taller than mongoloids... Indians have genes from caucasians , africans and mongoloids... The gene pool is extremely diverse... I am tall , well built and fair.. I look like a southern european... Dark skinned Indians look like africans.... north eastern population looks like mongoloids..Most Indians have genes in combination of these ...My fiance is very tall too.. She is a typical brown skinned Indian ..The average height batch must have been around 176 cm for males and about 164 cm for females .. The tallest male was 190 + cm and the tallest female was close to 6 foot tall. The average height of population between the age of 18-35 has already reached the western levels in Urban areas.

it takes a few generations to reach optimal average height .

As far as malnutition is concerned , it is a very broad term ... Even obesity is a type of malnutrition ...That way even mukesh ambanis sons are malnourished ...

What in India is over-estimated (and repeated ad nauseam by the DDM) is the prevalence of PEM (protein energy malnutrition) ....I predict that PEM in India would be as rare as that in the US by 2020.. Only thing that comes in the way (besides mistreatment to women) is poverty wallah socialism... I predict that if the food security bill is passed the health stats would worsen ..

In fact we use a different formula for deciding whether an Indian kid has PEM or not..i mean the criterion used for Indians is different from the ones used for TFTA..

What needs to be done is region wise concentration...The backward regions are well known ...If things can be done there that our stats might improve faster than expected..

You might find this one interesting..


http://www.indianpediatrics.net/aug2010/651.pdf


The above article agrees with your conclusion that Income growth in India has not benefited in solving malnutrition the way it should..

India weathered the recent global fiscal crisis
impressively and is relentlessly marching forward on
the economic and development fronts. However,
these economic gains have not translated into
substantial nutritional benefits, which is acutely
embarrassing and disconcerting

Estimates from the most recent Nationally
representative survey indicate that 6.4% of children
below 60 months of age have weight for height
below –3 SD(3
Most ddm articles mention that 85%-90% Indian kids are malnoursihed(as in PEM malnoursihed , ie w/h < -3 S.D) ... which is bull crap...


What the gov't intends to do about this is pass the nonsensical food security bill..
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by rohitvats »

On the economy front....just to add to the gloomy forecast by Vina-al-harvaardi, please to look up the short term debt obligations of all the listed developers :P ....if you don't get hebee jeebies, come and bang my head against wall....just a small example - DLF needs to pay-up 7,000crores before March (the zeroes are correct, don't worry) and are looking to off-load 'non-core assets' (there you go with more yum-bee-a giri)...with a single land parcel in Mumbai valued at 3,000 crores...yet and yet, who has the money to fork out and why will the buyer agree to this valuation in today's market is another point. That still leaves 4,000 crores....Oh! btw, just to add more fun, also do check on the percentage of promoters shares already pledged to the banks... :mrgreen: And finally, the projected/possible cash flow from advances are but a miniscule %age of debt :((

So, no out of love or for respect towards market sentiment (aka demand-supply scenario) or some sanity, but pure survival instincts may force the developers to slash prices. Or, somehow, RBI might allow another 'restructuring' of debt to RE Segment - Over all, something will give...if developers don't generate cash, then PSU banks are up the sh*t creek....interesting times ahead.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by RamaY »

I lost 10% of my portfolio in last month. Today I sold all the junk and converted into Cash. I am not going into stocks again :(( :(( :((
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by Virupaksha »

add me to your whine :(( :(( but not sold out yet
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by RamaY »

Ramanaji

This is for you :mrgreen:
A new service called iMessage will allow iOS 5 users to send text messages to each other over Wi-Fi or wireless carriers' data networks, while a folder called Newsstand will corral newspaper and magazine app subscriptions in one place to make it easier to find them.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by Singha »

>>DLF needs to pay-up 7,000crores before March

I think they are ok. have a sort of jv with the nation's son-in-law.

also like italy and spain, they are too big to be allowed to fail...
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by rohitvats »

-self deleted-
Last edited by rohitvats on 04 Oct 2011 23:20, edited 1 time in total.
rohitvats
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by rohitvats »

Marten wrote: Rohit, will post a question for you in Nukkad or email regarding property in Bangalore. Is that ok?
No problemo, bro....either way is OK.

BTW....went to the Neemrana Fort Hotel today for Lunch (for the southeees...that is an old fort converted to hotel, 140kms from Delhi...click here:http://www.ashextourism.com/hotelsresor ... nafort.jpg )...while the place is not at all a tourist destination (that honor belong to Alwar - 70kms from the place and off the Delhi Jaipur highway), the fort has been done up well and it being on top of a hill gives it an awesome view of the surrounding....but damn expensive..the rack rate starts at north of 5K per person and goes utpo 22K.....could see a line of Audi Q7/A6, Beemers and Mercs and good old Fortuner in the parking. It is a much favored weekend getaway for the "Dilli Billis" and neo-rich jat families...of course, you have the CEO/CFO/CXO plus senior management types as well....had luch at the place...price equal to a 5 star but the food was no great shakes nor could one compare with the spread in a 5 Star....guess, all the money is about the experience.

But there was one nice experience - the architecture of the place ensured that the interiors were all roomy and cool...overall, good exp..someday if I enough money to blow on lifestyle...would surely come here.

In the meanwhile, here I'm sitting in a shady hotel in Alwar at 12am IST and running cash flows for some stupid RE Fund who has made stupid investments and I'm supposed to value the assets.... :(( :(( :((
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by VenkataS »

Deleted to preempt thread disruption. No India-Pakistan wikipedia discussions on this thread please.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by Vipul »

Is India becoming an export powerhouse?
IT IS common to posit that India’s economy is more self-contained than China’s. Lately the facts have got in the way. In dollar terms China still sells five times more than India, but relative to output, exports of goods and services from India have been chugging up while those from China have fallen. Measured this way the two countries are converging.

This runs so counter to gut instinct— India is meant to be hopeless at making things—that many mutter about unreliable data. Some reckon firms are over-invoicing for exports to ship black money back into the country. But Sajjid Chinoy of JPMorgan Chase has tallied the official figures against India’s trade partners’ numbers and data on port traffic. He says the conspiracy theories are flimsy.

Two shifts are happening. First, India no longer only sells simple things such as jewels. A decade ago engineering and petrochemicals were 14% of goods exports; now they are 42%, says Rohini Malkani of Citigroup. Second, the share of goods exported to slothful America and Europe has dropped from a half to a third. India is selling more complex products to a wider and perkier group of trade partners. Small firms are doing a lot of the work, says T.C.A. Ranganathan of Export-Import Bank of India.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by Prem »

http://www.heritage.org/Research/Report ... e-Solution
Corruption in India: More Government Is Not the Solution

This article claims black economy is 25% of GDP i.e ~500Billion~. Its the money in the hands of public and not in the crooded hands of GOI.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by Prem »

http://wcfcourier.com/business/local/pa ... 3f4dc.html
Panel urges Wartburg students to study India's economy

WAVERLY, Iowa --- An economics class at Wartburg College will take a three-week trip to India next spring to learn first-hand the nuances and dynamics of the business environment in one of the world's emerging economic powerhouses.Representing perhaps the most locally rooted bridge to India from the Cedar Valley was Robesh Maity, currently on assignment at Deere & Co.'s Engine Works in Cedar Falls and Waterloo, who was a senior general manager at John Deere and a senior manager of product engineering at General Motors in India.Maity said Deere, typical of many multinational corporations, saw India as fertile ground on which to grow."In the 1990s, Deere saw that most of the multinationals were starting to move into India and they saw the potential, and that was one of the main reasons they came there. You feel you need a presence definitely there."Indian tractor manufacturers were churning out 300,000 to 400,000 units per year in India, Maity said."That was a potential driver for John Deere to think they should be present and try to capture this market," he said.Now, Deere employs about 5,000 workers in India and turns out about 60,000 tractors per year, compared to about 25,000 at the Waterloo Works, Maity said, adding that the company plans to build another factory in India that will turn out another 100,000 units.An emerging middle class is steering the Indian economy, said Surekha K. Rao, associate professor of economics at Indiana University Northwest in Gary."You have a young population in that country," she said. "You have a huge market. It has business-friendly policies because the government has opened doors with tax incentives and other incentives."Wartburg economics professor Fungisai Nota, who is planning the class trip to India next May and served as an organizer for Tuesday's program, said it is essential for students to get first-hand knowledge of a global economy.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by Prem »

http://www.thehindu.com/business/Econom ... 515383.ece
India, Iran agree on payment mechanism for trade
In a significant development indicating a breakthrough in resolving the India-Iran payment crisis for import of oil as well as exports, both countries have agreed to set up a payment mechanism to facilitate bilateral trade. According to the Finance Ministry, both sides agreed on the mechanism to be put in place for the purpose, including for the payment to Indian exporters and project exporters. Although the statement did not indicate but this would also include payments made by India for buying Iranian crude oil. The issue of payment for oil had been hanging in fire for the last nine months with the Indian side grappling for a solution on the issue. The agreement follows a meeting between Department of Economic Affairs (DEA) Secretary R. Gopalan with Iranian delegation led by Vice-Governor of Central Bank of Iran Seyed Kamal Seyed Ali. The Finance Ministry statement said both sides agreed to continue their engagement in the matter.
The problem over payment to Iran arose after the Reserve Bank of India on December 23 last scrapped the Asian Clearing Union (ACU), winning appreciation from the U.S., which is using sanctions to force Tehran to halt its nuclear programme. Although Iran has continued to supply crude oil to India , it had threatened to stop supplies if a mechanism to pay for imports is not found quickly. Iran is second only to Saudi Arabia as an oil supplier to India, while India is Iran's second-biggest crude buyer after China, accounting for about 20 per cent of its exports. Iran supplies 12 per cent of total oil needs of India.The Indian exports as well as the oil marketing companies have been struggling to pay Tehran because of international sanctions imposed over Iran. The sanctions include banking restrictions. An interim solution was found wherein Indian companies were to make payments through Turkey. The Indian companies such as Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals were to route euro payments to state-owned Turkiye Halk Bankasi (Halkbank) in Istanbul. The bank then transferred the money to the account of the National Iranian Oil Company. In the absence of a clearing system run by regional central banks, refiners in February made one big payment through Germany-based Europaeisch-Iranische Handelsbank (European-Iranian Trade Bank). However, soon after the payment, this route was discontinued.
Aditya_V
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by Aditya_V »

Why prices don't fall, why prices won't fall
of course the Government claims higher borrowings are the result of higher allocations for the social sector. Let’s look at the facts. The Approach Paper to the 12th Plan reveals that between 2007 and 2012, a little over Rs 6 lakh crore will be spent on its flagship schemes. That translates to around Rs 1.2 lakh crore per year whereas borrowings have shot up from Rs 146,000 crore in 2007 to Rs 467,000 crore this year. So where is the money going? The Centre and states together claim to spend over Rs 4.5 lakh crore a year on the social sector. If all of it has reached the beneficiaries, why are poverty numbers still high and services to them so poor? Fact is political parties, the practitioners of helicopter socialism, have converted budgets into the CSR arm of political parties. Results don’t matter as long as spending drives beneficiary into the electoral net. The 2007 budget promised to produce an annual report on the impact of social spending. Five years later, there is no outcome report but spending is rising. Too much money chasing too few poor is inflationary.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by Vasu »

This debate's published in today's Business Standard.

Should MNREGA labour be used for farming?
Devinder Sharma - Food and agricultural policy analyst

An acute shortage of farm labour across the country at the peak and crucial time of crop harvesting and sowing is not only playing havoc with food production, but is also increasingly forcing small farmers to abandon agriculture.

It isn’t aberrant weather, uneconomic farm prices and the increasing corporatisation of agriculture that alone is responsible for the prevailing agrarian distress, the unavailability of farm labour has added to farmers’ woes. In my opinion, it is the single most important factor that is forcing small farmers to sell off their meagre land holdings and join the growing ranks of landless workers. No wonder, travelling across the country, the common refrain that I hear is: “Please ask the government to ban MNREGA. It is killing us.”

An acute shortage of farm labour across the country at the peak and crucial time of crop harvesting and sowing is not only playing havoc with food production, but is also increasingly forcing small farmers to abandon agriculture.

It isn’t aberrant weather, uneconomic farm prices and the increasing corporatisation of agriculture that alone is responsible for the prevailing agrarian distress, the unavailability of farm labour has added to farmers’ woes. In my opinion, it is the single most important factor that is forcing small farmers to sell off their meagre land holdings and join the growing ranks of landless workers. No wonder, travelling across the country, the common refrain that I hear is: “Please ask the government to ban MNREGA. It is killing us.”

An acute shortage of farm labour across the country at the peak and crucial time of crop harvesting and sowing is not only playing havoc with food production, but is also increasingly forcing small farmers to abandon agriculture.

It isn’t aberrant weather, uneconomic farm prices and the increasing corporatisation of agriculture that alone is responsible for the prevailing agrarian distress, the unavailability of farm labour has added to farmers’ woes. In my opinion, it is the single most important factor that is forcing small farmers to sell off their meagre land holdings and join the growing ranks of landless workers. No wonder, travelling across the country, the common refrain that I hear is: “Please ask the government to ban MNREGA. It is killing us.”

MNREGA has now completed five years. Many believe with not much meaningful work available, it is already faced with mid-life crisis. Nevertheless, it is in these five years that the crisis in agriculture has also worsened. For those who want to see, the crisis in agriculture is directly proportionate to the spread of MNREGA. The intra-state movement of labour, and of course the exodus from the rural hinterland to meet the burgeoning needs of real estate, expressways and urban infrastructure has diverted the workforce from poorly paid agriculture. And still, despite the recommendation of the ministry of agriculture, the ministry for rural development (MoRD) has refused to slow MNREGA work during the peak farming season.

Some years back, agriculture was brought under MNREGA activities after a lot of hue and cry. The Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) had identified 50 districts for launching technological interventions by Krishi Vigyan Kendras (KVKs) on a pilot basis. These included operations like water harvesting, digging farm ponds, rooftop rainwater harvesting, drought proofing, micro-irrigation and renovation of traditional water bodies. These activities would certainly go into much needed asset creations in agriculture, but it is generally believed that pressure from agribusiness – including the sectors dealing with farm machinery, herbicides and GM crops – is holding the crucial decision of MNREGA’s convergence with peak farm operations.

As a welcome move, I find some state governments are in the process of extending several benefits that have already been allotted to SC/ST families, to be extended to small farmers.
Nikhil Dey - Activist, Mazdoor Kisan Shakti Sangathan (MKSS)*
*MKSS activist Aruna Roy also contributed to this piece.

If you can’t end it, change it,” seems to be the attitude of the powerful adversaries of the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MNREGA). Reacting to its most undeniable success – the increase in wages and the bargaining power of rural workers – big employers, farmers and industrialists are beginning to exert political pressure to deploy MNREGA workers as farm labour and change the fundamentals of the programme.

Additional benefits come through the building of permanent assets that enhance their livelihood security. Poor and marginalised communities also benefit through the development of common property assets. In other words, it was designed to be a programme by the poor, of the poor and for the poor. Some benefits could accrue to others, but there is an acknowledgement that MNREGA would be aligned with an exploited population and, therefore, potentially there could be some negative effect on the more affluent sections of society.

The recent suggestion that MNREGA labour be used for farming activity goes against the core principles of the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act in at least 10 ways:
  • It violates the principle of generating additional employment, by directing workers to work as farm labour, in existing employment.

    It violates the principle of creating durable employment generating assets. Even the popular and sustained land development work on the lands of the poor will reduce.

    It would undermine equity and land reform by subsidising profits for the rural landlord, and facilitate absentee landlordism, by underwriting the labour costs of the farmers.

    It will severely impair the building of rural infrastructure for marginalised communities, such as road connectivity with Dalit villages and remote hamlets.

    It will undermine the crucial transparency and public accountability measures built into the programme by removing its collective “public” nature, and placing the poor at the mercy and supervision of private employers. Public vigilance and supervision will be an impossible nightmare.

    It will make it impracticable to ensure proper working conditions, such as working hours and “worksite facilities”. In fact, many of the labour deployed as farm labour might be pressured by farmers to work not just on their fields, but also in their homes. In some cases farmers might keep a share of the workers’ wages by giving them an advance. A new kind of debt bondage might appear.

    It will negatively affect the bargaining power of wage labour by reducing the number of employment opportunities, and it could even start a downward wage spiral in other employment in the rural areas.

    It will make it very difficult to have the poor plan for and decide on their own works. Rich landlords will dominate the gram sabha meetings and insist that work on their own farms becomes the priority .

    It will create a new kind of economic dependence since this is a repetitive and not a one time activity. A time will come when only the farmers who are assigned MNREGA workers will be able to survive.

    Finally, this will undermine MNREGA itself and the shortcomings will become another reason to clamour for the law being wound up.



the Indian farmer is a bad guy now!
Aditya_V
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by Aditya_V »

Vasu-> wouldn't be fun, Govt pays for Farm labour, it will subsidise them for artificially low prices, Govt pays from Taxpayer money. Atleast it will be productive work than some of which is happenning in the name of Nregs.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by krishnan »

They wont work in farms. Its much more hard labour. My folks back in village are finding it hard to hire Laborer for farm work
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by ramana »

When the UBS banker was arrested for unauthroized trading, some had specualted that black money was moving out of swiss bank holes.
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by Advait »

Nothing is cheap in India. Almost all manufactured goods costs the same as they do in developed countries if you look at it from USD/Euro to INR terms. But still NRIs and desis claim India is cheap. :eek: This is specially true if you are talking about good quality goods.

Instead of trying to make low-cost goods of cheap quality what needs to happen is that our per capita income needs to rise atleast 10X, from $1200 to $12,000 per year. That will mean our economy will be the same size as that of America :D
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by gakakkad »

Advait wrote:Nothing is cheap in India.
Yeah , nothing but advice...

Almost all manufactured goods costs the same as they do in developed countries if you look at it from USD/Euro to INR terms. But still NRIs and desis claim India is cheap. :eek:
The underwear I wore in India was like 7 times cheaper than the one I wore in the US...But than I forgot that underwear is not manufactured ..It grows on a tree...
This is specially true if you are talking about good quality goods.
The omeprazole prescribed in SDREland is 50 times cheaper than in US...But than I forgot "good quality goods."..The one in SDRE land is 50 times low quality than in TFTA land...

Instead of trying to make low-cost goods of cheap quality what needs to happen is that our per capita income needs to rise atleast 10X, from $1200 to $12,000 per year. That will mean our economy will be the same size as that of America

Thanks for telling us that...you are indeed a great visionary...please lead us to the path of enlightenment ...

"Instead of trying to make low-cost goods of cheap quality what needs to happen is that our per capita income needs to rise atleast 10X,"

How about everyone raising their prices by 10x ... lux cosy underwear maker please charge 10 times more...Drug companies ,please charge 10 times more... farmers please charge 10 times more for rice , wheat etc....voila ...Indian economy is 20 trillion instead of the present figure of 2 trillion......in a days time...



PS-

Please read about cost of living indices , gdp deflater, calculations of ppp dollars etc...btw the Indian nominal per cap Income in fiscal 12 is projected @ 1650-1700 dollars and ppp per cap at.@ $ 4500-5000.. The compounded annualised growth rate is projected at 15-20% for the next 10 fiscals ... calculate how long would it take for us to reach the US GDP ...
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by RamaY »

gakakkad wrote: The underwear I wore in India was like 7 times cheaper than the one I wore in the US...But than I forgot that underwear is not manufactured ..It grows on a tree...
Can you pls give the price point?
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by gakakkad »

pack of 4 of a type of "fruit of the loom" in the US would cost around 20-25 (INR 1000-1200)... A similar type same sized pack of 4 (though obviously a different brand or unbranded) one in India would cost inr 200 or something like that...
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by Vipul »

Exports up 36% in Sep, imports grow 17%.

Maintaining a robust trend despite a slowdown in the US and Europe, India's exports registered a robust annual growth of 36.3% to $24.8 billion in September.

Total exports for the current fiscal may reach "striking range" of $290-300 billion, Commerce Secretary Rahul Khullar said today while releasing the provisional data.

Though down from the 44.2% growth recorded in August, the rise in exports in September can be considered robust, given the economic woes in the US and the debt crisis in Europe. The US and Europe are the two biggest markets for Indian merchandise, accounting for about 30% of total shipments.

Imports in September grew by 17.2% to $34.6 billion vis-a-vis the same period last year, leaving a trade deficit of $9.8 billion.

During the April-September period, India's exports grew by 52.1% to $160 billion.

"Good news is that exports continue to grow over last year, but the heady numbers have gone, it is clear there is deceleration," he told reporters here.

During the first half of this fiscal, the sectors which registered healthy growth include engineering (103%), petroleum and oil lubricants (PoL) (53%), gems and jewellery (23%), ready-made garments (32%), marine products (48%) and drugs (33%).

Khullar said that India's exports are growing in new markets like Africa, Latin America and Asia, which has helped India maintain the export growth momentum.

During the period, imports expanded by 32.4% to $233.5 billion. The trade gap stood at $73.5 billion.Apex exporters body Fieo said the trade deficit number is huge and may touch $150 billion by the end of 2011-12, "which is a matter of concern".
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Re: Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Post by Vasu »

Aditya, I agree. That is the point raised in favour of shifting NREGA towards farming during the harvest season where the need for labour is real. Time and again there are reports that there is not enough work in NREGA. Basically they are getting doles, which I suppose was the entire social agenda of the CONgress traitors.

Krishnan, this is what I can't understand. Are the rural workers also turning into urbanites who look down upon physical labour that they are running away from farm labour? Hasn't farm labour always been tough, and in fact, ideally should have gotten easier with the advent of better tools and machineries? I know it sounds naive but still.
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