Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 18 Oct 2011 20:19

If I'm not wrong that particular solar plant is not part of JNNSM. Several states including Gujarat, Karnataka & TN have their own small solar programs.

And yes this whole Rajiv this, Nehru that is Gandhi family weird fetish. Not dissimilar from the Kalaigner this, MGR that in TN. Started with IG. Someday our children's children will get to remove all those silly names. The day Rahul/Priyanka this or that starts up I promise to walk up to the street and publicly throw-up.

Hari,

Mind backing up your comment on how India is bringing down Gujarat.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 18 Oct 2011 20:32

Theo_Fidel wrote:If I'm not wrong that particular solar plant is not part of JNNSM. Several states including Gujarat, Karnataka & TN have their own small solar programs.

And yes this whole Rajiv this, Nehru that is Gandhi family weird fetish. Not dissimilar from the Kalaigner this, MGR that in TN. Started with IG. Someday our children's children will get to remove all those silly names. The day Rahul/Priyanka this or that starts up I promise to walk up to the street and publicly throw-up.

You are right, that plant is not part of JNNSM and so are many others. In fact it is mostly Non INC ruled states ( except for Rajasthan and that too for very specific reason,and AP) are more active in Renewables/JNNSM.

Theo one, just , needs to look at the policy initiatives and not the names. One would find that whoever was in power had choice to or not to take initiative. One should give credit or discredit where it is due. Association of Names is a legacy of long INC rule. In 1977 non INC had chance and then again when BJP came. 1977 was nothing but infighting. BJP /NDA indeed took several initiatives and Golden Quadrilateral is one of the best example . But one can not say making road is mundane and give no credit to the idea.

And , yeah , I can;t stand the Juniors.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 18 Oct 2011 21:05

I'd call PVNR non-congress as well.

Not a clue what to say about humble farmer.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 18 Oct 2011 21:48

Please avoid derailing this thread with unrelated teethgnashing about your own political concerns. Modi's press issues have no direct relation to this thread. A few posts will soon disappear.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 18 Oct 2011 22:13

Theo_Fidel wrote:If I'm not wrong that particular solar plant is not part of JNNSM. Several states including Gujarat, Karnataka & TN have their own small solar programs.

Coming to the point, how would someone point out that a state is 'modern' in a sense. One doesn't need a foreigner to say that other than for international recognition for exactly the same. In fact, when such details are made more clear, states will definitely learn from each other, according to me. Otherwise, any correction of a colonial/red-tape policy, particularly at election time, will be hailed as the best possible breakthrough for effortless credit.

May be progress does happen step by step, and there are many different correct ways. It is better to throw light on these so people who can will come forward. Till then, pleasing dynasties will be a major goal in itself.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 18 Oct 2011 23:11

vishvak,

You have not arrived when your per capita annual GDP is $1,400. Or your literacy rate is 79%.
You have not arrived when you sex ratio is 921 women to 100 men. Or your female fertility rate is 2.4 (similar I might add to Odisha). I could go on.

My standard is per capita income of $20,000 or so. SKorea income level of about 15-20 years ago. No area of India has arrived yet. There is a long way to go for all of India and one area of India should not act triumphalist and try to rub it in something that is not true.

I get particularly annoyed at silly claims such as Gujarat is overcoming its 'constraint' of being a part of India or some such stuff. Nothing could be further from the truth. Gujarat is a middle level, middle income, fast growing state of India. It prospers from being a part of India and taking advantage of opportunities being in India gives it. All power to Gujarat and may it live long and prosper but without India Gujarat would be nothing, as would TN, Maharashtra or South Travancore

. There is a lot lot more hard work and heavy lifting to be done by everyone so lets not get into chest thumping just yet.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 18 Oct 2011 23:45

Theo_Fidel wrote:vishvak,

You have not arrived when your per capita annual GDP is $1,400. Or your literacy rate is 79%.
You have not arrived when you sex ratio is 921 women to 100 men. Or your female fertility rate is 2.4 (similar I might add to Odisha). I could go on.

My standard is per capita income of $20,000 or so. SKorea income level of about 15-20 years ago. No area of India has arrived yet. There is a long way to go for all of India and one area of India should not act triumphalist and try to rub it in something that is not true.

I get particularly annoyed at silly claims such as Gujarat is overcoming its 'constraint' of being a part of India or some such stuff. Nothing could be further from the truth. Gujarat is a middle level, middle income, fast growing state of India. It prospers from being a part of India and taking advantage of opportunities being in India gives it. All power to Gujarat and may it live long and prosper but without India Gujarat would be nothing, as would TN, Maharashtra or South Travancore . There is a lot lot more hard work and heavy lifting to be done by everyone so lets not get into chest thumping just yet.

Thank you for this post. An immediate issue here is that this could, indeed, point to the reality of importance of renewable energy.

In short, oil/coal as raw materials have inherent deficiencies in many ways, a few of those are cartels of producers, cartels of markets, import lobbies, corruption at various levels, and so on. Not to mention it involves Government level effects because of all these. Any energy source that reduces all these is very helpful in growth, considering that moving ahead the country will need much more of energy sources. In this, solar energy is amongst the best. There was a post where it was mentioned how villagers were trained for maintenance, etc so the international technologies that benefit a few but sell to all is now, however small, changed a bit in that maintenance of technologies could be distributed at village level and some of maintenance cost stays in village.

In other words, the effect of such an energy source, solar energy being amongst the best, is huge to say the least, and could be revolutionary if I am correct at village level. A village will not have to bow to national/international cartels for some of its power supply. In our country, it would avoid a lot of cost factor for oil/gas/coal sources. Also, in India, this would shine brightly in otherwise corrupt environment( a little like wireless mobile phones that use frequencies present in atmosphere-medium as a source and not maze of wires, thus reducing dependence to a certain level of corruption). Nor progressive states will have to pay through the nose for this much to foreign countries with precious foreign exchange.

More it is used (30 MW solar power project is not too tiny), more will be its effects on demand-supply too thereby reducing oil prices. I am sure over a period of time, the renewable sources will go a long way in increasing wealth and saving foreign exchange, which is amongst indicators of progress.

Over a period of time, solar and other renewable/non-conventional energy sources could indeed be amongst the best ways for progress. There are many countries that are turning to this even when already developed & even when this is relatively expensive at this point of time. It looks to me that over a period of time, 'effectively' the price of renewable energy sources will be cheaper than what it appears.

About South Korea, it has a HUGE nuclear establishment for the population I think. More on it:

Nuclear power in South Korea supplies 45% of electricity production and research is very active with investigation into a variety of advanced reactors, including a small modular reactor, a liquid-metal fast/transmutation reactor and a high-temperature hydrogen generation design. Fuel production and waste handling technologies have also been developed locally. It is also a member of the ITER project.
South Korea is an emerging exporter of nuclear reactors,...

It also has railways, that I am assuming here, run on nuclear power as major mode of transport.

Wikipedia link on South Korea economy

VenkataS · Post by **VenkataS** » 19 Oct 2011 01:28

Theo_Fidel wrote:
My standard is per capita income of $20,000 or so. SKorea income level of about 15-20 years ago.

South Korean nominal GDP per capita did not hit $20,000 until 2007 or so. It is still around the same level now. They were at about $4,500 nominal GDP per capita when they hosted the olympic games in 1988 (although it would be higher in current dollars accounting for inflation). It took them about 20 years from 1977 to 1996 to go from $1000 to $10,000+ in nominal GDP per capita.

But I do agree with you, for a nation to be considered as an industrialized, developed nation and to escape the developing country tag in 2011 the nominal GDP per capita must be atleast $20,000 or more along with other social indicators.

If India reaches the following state in the next 20 years or so (by the year 2030) I would be very happy:

95%+ literacy rate for females and in the general population
20%+ of the population has a bachelors degree
12 years of mean schooling for everyone between the ages of 18 and 28
15 or lower infant mortality rate per 1000 live births
1000 females for 1000 males in the general population
$10,000 or more nominal per capita GDP

All of the above is achievable if there is a concerted national effort based on a vision of where we want to be in the next 20 years.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 19 Oct 2011 02:30

My mistake on SK. I remember a $15,000 or so number from Clinton's second term.

But yes, I will settle for $15,000 per capita and other social indicators and say India has arrived at that point.

Vji,

There is an entire India nuclear thread in the Strategic section for nuclear discussions. But let me warn you it is not for the faint of heart. I would not want the discussion to spread hear for fear of serious thread disruption. I'm talking suspensions, warnings, ejected members, etc.

Venkat,

That is an excellent list. You are right to focus on female literacy. Male literacy is automatic if the mothers are literate.

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 19 Oct 2011 06:50

If India reaches the following state in the next 20 years or so (by the year 2030) I would be very happy:

95%+ literacy rate for females and in the general population
20%+ of the population has a bachelors degree
12 years of mean schooling for everyone between the ages of 18 and 28
15 or lower infant mortality rate per 1000 live births
1000 females for 1000 males in the general population
---------- or more nominal per capita GDP

Good list and that is what one should aim for. Just a minor nitpik..thats why i cut the GDP figure. The 1st 4 items don't need a 10000 USD GDP. One can achieve it with a per cap of around 5000 USD. Many countries that had a per cap of around 5000 USD achieved those figures. Big transitional changes happen at that stage onwards. Low level corruption starts receding, expect polite behavior from Govt officials, no nonsense cops on the prowl thus better implementation of law and order etc..air conditioning in most govt offices and better vehicle management. Better and more sensitive political reactivity to middle class concerns. Basically aam junta is rooting for these only presently. To achieve 5000 USD per cap we could be just 8 years away if we sustain and carry forward the right reforms..if not it will take us another 20 years of juggling and an extra 12 years of struggle at least to get there. That's really why proper reforms are so critical at this stage. We are so near and yet so far..

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 19 Oct 2011 06:59

harbans,

We need GDP as well. I've thought about it quite a bit. Other than point 2 Kerala already has those indicators yet it has not arrived.

Income is necessary to to give you some heft. I compare it to a healthy Spaniel vs a healthy Doberman. The Doberman gets respect and has arrived but the Spaniel not so much and gets no respect. It is the combination of all those things that get you there. UAE has GDP but not Social and hence has not arrived.
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SwamyG,

Sadly, You are banging your head against the wall.

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Venkat,

Why does Wikipedia have SK per capita income at about $30,000? Did the recession knock them down so much to end at $20,000.

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 19 Oct 2011 08:57

We need GDP as well. I've thought about it quite a bit.

No doubt Theo Ji, that's why i mentioned a figure of 5000 is the magical one. Once we have that point 2 also approaches pretty well in the horizon. It then not the light at the end of the tunnel, it's the end itself. I believe Rockfeller is still right. It's earning the 1st million Dollars that's the big deal. After that the road is easy. So if i may say so..it's approaching the 5000 per cap figure that is the real tough part..after that till 30k or whatever is on auto mode. Any exceptions that slipped from a 5000 USD per cap to a Nehruvian per cap GDP. Doubt it though.

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 19 Oct 2011 09:21

RamaY wrote:

It will be a "tradition or practice". Then the decision of change comes from within, not some foreign god-ordained duty

But we live in a world where Mijoram CM gets criticized because he broke a coconut (another tradition symbolizing breaking of one's ego - is it a bad thing after all?) which is against Christian god

These are the fanatics who preach majority Hindus about (sic) secularism and our Dhimmi-intellectuals blindly follow

I am no dhimmi intellectual.. My extreme right wing viewws in most threads should have pointed towards that..

Anyway many of these are serious problems... And I have seen several disasters been created in my med student days in India...

Tell me which hindu scripture prevents eating spinach or papaya in pregnancy ? Or giving applying burning hot iron rod over enlarged spleen to cure malaria...Or applying black ash inside eye's (leading to corneal ulcer which perforated in one case i saw) ... I have not seen any Hindu book that prescribes these...

Christian's themselves have a fair share of superstition... remember witch hunting in medieval Europe ? Or these days in US creationist trolls preventing teaching decent biology to school kids ? If you read the history of medicine , some practices like applying burning hot iron rod were prevalent in Europe till the last 200 years or so...

I don't think everything should be looked at from a political perspective... I am aware of organisation with political motives... What I talked about was merely from the health and economics perspective.. I don't think practising Hindu traditions and modern science are mutually exclusive .. Some top doctors I know are staunch Hindu's..

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Anyway the per captita income of the forward states in India should cross USD 2000 at the end of this fiscal... AT 15-20 % Compounded growth rate with some currency appreciation at the end of the decade most states will reach a figure of 15-20k + in the early 20's (UP being a problem state ,its PCI is 1/3 the national average) ... However reaching there depends upon how quickly the national manufacturing policy is formulated and how effectively it is implemented...

shyam · Post by **shyam** » 19 Oct 2011 10:04

gakakkad wrote:Tell me which hindu scripture prevents eating spinach or papaya in pregnancy ? Or giving applying burning hot iron rod over enlarged spleen to cure malaria...Or applying black ash inside eye's (leading to corneal ulcer which perforated in one case i saw) ... I have not seen any Hindu book that prescribes these...

Then why are these called superstitions? From RamaY's explanation, it can be noticed that these the word "superstition" has religious connotation.

Those practices may have originated from different sources, and people continue to practice them due to lack of education and were not able to understand the origin and motive of the practices.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 19 Oct 2011 11:35

Considering the way this thread has behaved over the last week or so I am not sure if debate between Anand Mahindra and Mehda Patkar will get the attention it deserves.

Land wars: Anand Mahindra debates Medha Patkar

This is an interesting and enlightening debate that deserves to be read in full.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 19 Oct 2011 12:29

This thread has been cleaned up, since it began to turn into nukkad.

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 19 Oct 2011 13:08

The Beatification process of the Catholic Church requires proof of a miracle unless the person is a martyr. Pope John Paul was Beatificatied based on a miracle. To become a saint you need to have two miracles. A miracle is a matter of belief, no different from a desi Godman. So when it comes to matter of faith and religion, this talk of tradition/superstition should be taken with a pinch of salt.

VenkataS · Post by **VenkataS** » 19 Oct 2011 15:28

Theo,
South Korean nominal GDP per capita is at $20,000 at present, their PPP GDP per capita is at $30,000. You must be looking at their PPP figures. The recession did slow them down a little bit. Their per capita figures now are at the same level they were in 2007.

Harbans,
It is important to concentrate on the GDP per capita figures as well if we want to avoid becoming another Sri Lanka with good social indicators but a poor economy. Plus it is important to not fall into the middle income trap like Argentina, Brazil and Mexico. It is not going to be a breeze going from $5000 to $20000 - $30000 GDP per capita.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 19 Oct 2011 18:04

Theo_Fidel wrote:Hari,

Mind backing up your comment on how India is bringing down Gujarat.

Sorry. India versus Guj is a strawman not of my creation and not something I can answer for.

My limited point is that within the institutional/constitutional and pluralistic framework India represents, the administrative effectiveness (not to mention efficiency), demonstrated track record of bringing to bear common-sensical solutions to pressing, long-standing problems to bear in the state of Guj is impressive and worthy of emulation. As a model, it has a *lot* to teach other regions in India.

To make 'em achievements more concrete (and can't help but note the sequence to see the priority accorded as well), consider rapid the backlog reduction in court cases as just one example. Inter-linking of water systems within the state, agri productivity redoubling up and more, focus on industrialization sans any industrial disputes, a much greater relative success in curbing everyday retail corruption in govt service provision and delivery, a focus on female HDI improvement which is of more recent vintage and should show results down the line etc are a few more examples. Oh, I could go and on but wouldn't make any impact on those determined not see.

The consistent attempts to downplay, deny or otherwise demote the true purport of the stab at progress the Guj model is making serves India little if at all. Is all.

And lest somebody things the active sabotage of Guj's prospects is a CT, I'd say, fine, I disagree, look at the record and reconsider. For instance, look only to the sequence of actions perpetrated by the Hon. Congress Governor of Guj - from styme-ing legit legislation to blocking proposals to foisting gadflies in positions of authority with a view to further entrench sabotage potential. Only. Anyway, just my 2 cents. Should take further discussion to the Indian interests thread. Thanks for a patient hearing.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 19 Oct 2011 18:07

VenkataS wrote:It is not going to be a breeze going from $5000 to $20000 - $30000 GDP per capita.

Agreed. How about we first get to $5k per capita? No longer given should the world around us implode and given the demonstrated competence of the politicized team (NAC) given shadow authority and say on how to direct the country's priorities and finances and which refuses to look at alternative models that have actually worked in the India milieu?

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 19 Oct 2011 19:12

Hari Seldon wrote:The consistent attempts to downplay, deny or otherwise demote the true purport of the stab at progress the Guj model is making serves India little if at all. Is all.

And lest somebody things the active sabotage of Guj's prospects is a CT, I'd say, fine, I disagree, look at the record and reconsider. For instance, look only to the sequence of actions perpetrated by the Hon. Congress Governor of Guj - from styme-ing legit legislation to blocking proposals to foisting gadflies in positions of authority with a view to further entrench sabotage potential. Only. Anyway, just my 2 cents. Should take further discussion to the Indian interests thread. Thanks for a patient hearing.

Hari,

Lets clear up some things.

You may not realize it but those indicators I posted above were actually for the state of Gujarat. I intentionally left it ambiguous and no one picked up on it.

You have not arrived when your per capita annual GDP is $1,400. Or your literacy rate is 79%.
You have not arrived when you sex ratio is 921 women to 100 men. Or your female fertility rate is 2.4 (similar I might add to Odisha). I could go on.

Now look at me with a straight face and say that one of the best administered states, that has not had to go through disastrous periods of rule can be proud of that. Gujarat is doing well but no better than several other Indian states. This is the bit missing. And unfortunately significantly worse than several states on many indicators. After decades of good administration BTW.

WRT the court cases, why was there such a staggering backlog in the first place, in a well managed state no less. Several states already have been working hard at clearing backlogs for decades now. Karnataka is under 800,000 cases per last update I saw. Down from about 1.8 million. Why is Gujarat not learning from other states? I've asked myself this question many times and have few answers.

Gujarat has things to teach India but by the same coin, Gujarat still has a lot to learn from the rest of India. Looking at those indicators I suspect Gujarat has a lot more to learn from some sections of India than vice versa but that is speculation.

Center state economic relations very much belong on this thread. While we are at it no state has had more and disastrously vicious long standing economic/political feuds with the center than TN. We could have easily put it down to discrimination against the SDRE and not a few did so. Let me tell you it is a dead end road. Gujarat can learn that from TN. Don't get forced into needless fights/resentment with the center esp. by people with political agenda's. Lankan Tamils & PSU strikes in TN's case. The center can make a states life truly unpleasant if it chose to. Gujarat should keep that in mind.

I'm baffled how all the good things accrue to Gujarat 'enterprise' yet all the bad things accrue to the 'constraint' of living in India. WRT female HDI can I point out that there are states in the South that have been working on the problem for 50+ years now. How did well administered Gujarat miss that Idea till now. If the experience of other states is any indicator it will take some time for Female HDI improvement of reflect on Gujarati society as a social transformation is necessary as well. It will be important for Gujarat to change its society to include sexual equality as well all the way up to the highest level. Women should be brought forcefully into administration as well. Plans must be made for Gujarat to have a female CM as well at some point.

Finally, I know several Gujarati friends around here and in Chennai. Some of the most straight forward and humble people I know. You never never hear them tooting on about how wonderful Gujarat is and that it is a paradise. Everyone acknowledges the challenges they face, they are not particularly impressed by all the big factories and companies even if some have benefitted many, most have not. They worry about schools, water, housing, jobs, etc, same as all other folk in all other states. A couple I know have migrated to Chennai for better 'economic situation' as they put it. Several in USA have migrated entire family Khandhans, 20+ people in one case. They could care less about all these claims of progress, even if true, they did not have jobs so they moved. So this sort of trumpeting tooting would embarrass them. Lets not impute things to all Gujarati's things they all may not want.

P.S. Does anyone have good info on what the Gujarat Agriculture productivity numbers are and the innovations used to achieve it. I would be very interested in reading up on that.

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 19 Oct 2011 21:02

^^ Theo.. The Gujarati's are amongst the most enterprising people in the world...But the state of Gujarat truly kicked off after the arrival of Narendra Modi...Prior to 1990's there were hardly any opportunities there...In those days it used to be congress ruled... Prior to Modi there was a rather inefficient CM Keshu Patel...Vajpayee had him removed mid-term because he was not really good...

After the year 2000 we can clearly see the results on the ground..

There is 100 % electrification of villages...Soon villages will get 24 hours supply...

99 % of the farm land is irrigated...

Very decent road management practices.. Large part of Surat has roads as good as Khanate...In 10-15 years time we can surely say that most roads of the Guj will be western standards...

There are almost no power cuts ....

There is large scale plans (hampered by the Centre) to develop ports...

All my family has US green card/citizenship...My own green card was sponsored by my aunt... All my family has large business interests in Gujarat...

My dad in the 90's was desperate to move to the US...He practiced in Bombay in 90's ..There the underworld , shiv-sena ,congress etc extorted money and made life hell..we than returned to ahmedabad..there his practice was.. OK not as good as bombay...But there was no extortion. Due to some reasons our US petition got delayed...We got our GreenCard in mid 2000's...But now he spends most of the time in Gujarat as his practice has boomed...Opened 3 more hospitals...And plans to enter the Pharma business.. I to plan to R2I (though the main reason I admit is my dads own hospitals ..and that they are doing very well)...

Uncle's had chemical and textile factories in regions of Guj... Those days Chiman Patel of Congress was the CM... he sucked... my uncles went bankrupt.. shifted to the US ... In the last few years he has invested Huge money in Guj...

Very swift land acquisition for business.the reason everyone goes there is because there is absolutely no red tape....

Regarding social/health indicators NaMo is taking them very seriously... I have already told you that health stats in India are very poor quality and that for various reasons health stats in Guj will be better than official data...

You can clearly see modi's performance... There was a slowdown fron 1999-2001...2001 was an earthquake year so Gujarat economy contracted...Modi Arrived in 2002...look at the change in GSDP OF gujarat...

http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Publica ... 120911.pdf

Planning commission's presentation of Gujarat...

http://planningcommission.nic.in/plans/ ... gujrat.pdf

these ar the reasons why NaMo is a visionary....

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 19 Oct 2011 21:31

G saab,

Gujarat is doing very well and good hear such news. Unfortunately we are all starting at such a low base that there is miles and miles to go still. I get annoyed at comments that appear to set Gujarat on an ideological collision with the center which is unnecessary and mostly untrue. The sad thing is that even after so much growth, India's fastest growing state still has a long ways to go.

I would warn Gujarat that these things can shift at any moment. Remember 10 years ago all the rage was Chandrababu Naidu and his AP revolution. Yet he lost and AP was since remained at the back of the pack in the South. Leaders come and go, visions change all the time. Much better to put some roots and a base to this growth. Change the way society is organized, something Naidu did not focus enough on.

What was the problem with the port. AFAIK Mundra is now the countries largest port. Most of the goods coming in go to the rest of India. During the planning commission days, when things like that were decided by a bureaucrat in Dilli, that could not have happened. Last I heard the Delhi Mumbai corridor was being purposefully pushed further into Gujarat and even a spur to Mundra was being planned. This does not sound like any center state confrontation.

ashish raval · Post by **ashish raval** » 19 Oct 2011 23:27

Theo_Fidel wrote:G saab,

Gujarat is doing very well and good hear such news. Unfortunately we are all starting at such a low base that there is miles and miles to go still. I get annoyed at comments that appear to set Gujarat on an ideological collision with the center which is unnecessary and mostly untrue. The sad thing is that even after so much growth, India's fastest growing state still has a long ways to go.

I would warn Gujarat that these things can shift at any moment. Remember 10 years ago all the rage was Chandrababu Naidu and his AP revolution. Yet he lost and AP was since remained at the back of the pack in the South. Leaders come and go, visions change all the time. Much better to put some roots and a base to this growth. Change the way society is organized, something Naidu did not focus enough on.

What was the problem with the port. AFAIK Mundra is now the countries largest port. Most of the goods coming in go to the rest of India. During the planning commission days, when things like that were decided by a bureaucrat in Dilli, that could not have happened. Last I heard the Delhi Mumbai corridor was being purposefully pushed further into Gujarat and even a spur to Mundra was being planned. This does not sound like any center state confrontation.

Ok, lets make some facts clear here.
^^ from few posts back Theo, I would like to know if you could dig up any socio-economic indicators where Gujarat is way behind other states! A comparative data would clear air on the issue.

Secondly, The ideological difference of Gujarat with Centre arises from the fact that Gujarat almost gets a third back in development project from what it pays to centre. This cant be said about other states and thus resentment arises.
Take recent exmaple, out of 100k tons fertilizer wanted by Gujarat, central government sanctioned 20k tons ! This is clearly an economic terrorism by the centre against the state which wants to develop its agro based industry !
Thirdly, you also said Gujarati's can be found in Chennai. Gujarati's can be found in Madagascar too(The only thing they want to do is trade than to work under someone. This needs a valour of prithviraj and hardwork like ant to succeed and a heart big enough to face the world if you default in business)This does not mean that the employment opportunities are less in the state. I choose to migrate out of Gujarat because of my research interests and keeda of earning more despite the fact that I was working nice and cosy in MNC after completion of B.Eng in Gujarat.
All my teachers were either from Chennai or Cochin. I can say convincingly that there will be more people from south India working in Gujarat than Gujarati's in South India.
People migrate due to many reasons. Gujarat is the most welcoming state for anyone from India. I can write that fact on Bronze and have never seen any state in India or infact world which comes near to assimilating people within it.
DMIC corridor was pushed into Gujarat because it cannot pass through Chambal or any other place in MP due to lot of forest cover being destroyed. I am not even sure that anything that goes into South India comes to Gujarat ports (never seen any trucks from South India) because South has already massive ports which can handle whatever comes in. Mostly Rajasthan, Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, MP, UP which certainly dont count whole of India.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 20 Oct 2011 00:12

Well Mumbai has that exact same complaint WRT the center and taxation. By extension Maharashtra, for quite some time our by far most industrialized state, has floated the country for a looong time as well. Still is by many measures. Complain all you want about the center but a sense of resentment against the center and by extension the rest of the country is not necessary. We can not be strong if all our parts are not strong.

No one said Gujarat is doing badly. It is a mid-level state doing good/very good in some aspects, bit behind in others and working on it. But if you read the posts on the board they read like it has already far out stripped other states and everyone else should immediately turn themselves into a Gujarat. Not dissimilar to Rick Perry's idea of turn all of USA into Texas. This is patently wrong.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 20 Oct 2011 06:46

Theo_Fidel wrote:Why is Gujarat not learning from other states? I've asked myself this question many times and have few answers.

Gujarat has things to teach India but by the same coin, Gujarat still has a lot to learn from the rest of India. Looking at those indicators I suspect Gujarat has a lot more to learn from some sections of India than vice versa but that is speculation.

I suspect we're talking past each other and throwing up convenient strawmen along the way.

I nowehere imply Guj has *nothing* to learn from the rest of India. That is a strawman not of my making. I stress merely that Guj's experience in the field of workable models in the Indian milieu has a lot to teach a lot of other states (not TN or the rest of south India perhaps, sure, I'm fine with that).

Two, you allege Guj is *not* learning from other states. On what basis, sir? If anything, the leadership of Guj, that has brought to bear a systematic, common-sensical approach to dealing with many of people's everyday concerns - big and small such as pani, bijli, sadak etc - is a good thing that ideally should't be downplayed or denied. That's all. Only.

Can they do better in several other areas? Sure, you bet. And as long as they can do something about it, I suspect they are not averse to experimenting with different things that worked in other states. Not at all. Why do you allege this is the case? There was this very recent Sharad Pawar statement on Guj's openness to agri field trials of certain GM and engineered crop varieties that should serve pause to the sceptics (just google for it, should be there).

Center state economic relations very much belong on this thread. While we are at it no state has had more and disastrously vicious long standing economic/political feuds with the center than TN. We could have easily put it down to discrimination against the SDRE and not a few did so. Let me tell you it is a dead end road. Gujarat can learn that from TN. Don't get forced into needless fights/resentment with the center esp. by people with political agenda's. Lankan Tamils & PSU strikes in TN's case. The center can make a states life truly unpleasant if it chose to. Gujarat should keep that in mind.

It has and it does. The Guj govt is not the one lamenting the centre's attitude. They know that's a dead end. Its us Guj watchers here who are unhappy with what we see as a needless self-goal by Dilli. Only. Though Dilli's partisan hackery and political compulsions are not entirely beyond understanding, of course.

I'm baffled how all the good things accrue to Gujarat 'enterprise' yet all the bad things accrue to the 'constraint' of living in India.

'all' good and bad things?? Another para, another strawman. Quit being oh-so-baffled, sir. Sometimes the obvious is also real.

WRT female HDI can I point out that there are states in the South that have been working on the problem for 50+ years now. How did well administered Gujarat miss that Idea till now. If the experience of other states is any indicator it will take some time for Female HDI improvement of reflect on Gujarati society as a social transformation is necessary as well. It will be important for Gujarat to change its society to include sexual equality as well all the way up to the highest level. Women should be brought forcefully into administration as well. Plans must be made for Gujarat to have a female CM as well at some point.

It'll take time and it will show up in due course. As you mention, 50+ yrs and ongoing in the south etc. The purposeful, straightforward, common-sensical approach we now see to problem solving in Guj at the govt level is of much more recent vintage.

Finally, I know several Gujarati friends around here and in Chennai. Some of the most straight forward and humble people I know. You never never hear them tooting on about how wonderful Gujarat is and that it is a paradise. Everyone acknowledges the challenges they face, they are not particularly impressed by all the big factories and companies even if some have benefitted many, most have not. They worry about schools, water, housing, jobs, etc, same as all other folk in all other states. A couple I know have migrated to Chennai for better 'economic situation' as they put it.

Great. So a couple migrated, hence, Guj is no 'paradise'. Anecdotal evidence has some value, sure, I wouldn't count broad-based generalizing as one of them. Thanks, I can see where this is going.

Several in USA have migrated entire family Khandhans, 20+ people in one case. They could care less about all these claims of progress, even if true, they did not have jobs so they moved. So this sort of trumpeting tooting would embarrass them. Lets not impute things to all Gujarati's things they all may not want.

Re the bolded part, more straw-men. In some sense, the misguided attributions and motivations to Guj watchers above simply compounds to achieve this end. Like I said, those who don't want to see, won't. [/quote]

P.S. Does anyone have good info on what the Gujarat Agriculture productivity numbers are and the innovations used to achieve it. I would be very interested in reading up on that.

http://www.gujaratindia.com/initiatives/initiatives.htm

A simple search throws up a good many more, and from varied sources.

vina · Post by **vina** » 20 Oct 2011 07:24

Beltway Earnings makes US capital richer than Silicon Valley!

I have always maintained that Dupli City is the twin of Dilli City. They are so alike that they are almost indistinguishable. Home to the greatest parasitical classes ever to live on planet earth, Lawyers (1 in 12 in Dupli City is a lawyer!) and Federal employees!

So there are you are. Both the cities are filled to the brim and overflowing with fixers, shakers, disgusting politicos, slime ball lawyers, scrounging federal employees, and other lobbyists, hatchet men, the judicial and health mafia, assorted thugs,scoundrels, rascals , scallawags and scum, basically the detritus of much of humanity.

It is a sad commentary that in both countries, US and India, the scum rise to the top and lord it over lot more productive and hardworking and innovative folks, who actually do something productive (like in Silicon Valley, Mumbai, New York, Bangalore etc) and being the parasite at the apex is what the system reduces to and the politicos aspire for.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 20 Oct 2011 07:35

Theo_Fidel wrote: I would warn Gujarat that these things can shift at any moment. Remember 10 years ago all the rage was Chandrababu Naidu and his AP revolution. Yet he lost and AP was since remained at the back of the pack in the South. Leaders come and go, visions change all the time. Much better to put some roots and a base to this growth. Change the way society is organized, something Naidu did not focus enough on.

haven't been following the discussion but the above is true. I don't think any politician in 60 years has suffered the kind of fall from grace that Naidu has. his fall was steep and very rapid. he is still recovering from that. it unlikely if he will ever reach that height again.

for such a "smart" guy, he failed to grasp the basic socio-political setup of India/AP. this has boggled me for years. he didn't become a 2-term AP CM by being an idiot. he was an adept at handling various factions from all corners. yet, his arrogance made him "alien" to the "grassroots" that once supported him....his example will be a case study in Indian politics and neta-people relations for a long time to come.

abhischekcc · Post by **abhischekcc** » 20 Oct 2011 10:01

You know, I think Delhi is not as bad as it would have been if it had another class of parasites - investment bankers.

The current economic mess was created by investment bankers alone without any help from the other classes of parasites.

The mess really started in 1998, when the LTC(mis)M firm, (mis)managed by a bunch of MBAs, financial 'innovators', and Nobel Laureates (in derivatives), collapsed. Apparently, what prevented the spread of the contagion at that time was a piece of legislation by the hated politicians. It was the Glass Steagall Act - made to prevent the collpase of economy by hard working investment banksters.

Once, this legislation was removed the doors were open to the mess they have created this time.

---------
Oh yes, if there is a devil, he must be an investment banker.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 20 Oct 2011 12:12

devesh wrote:
Theo_Fidel wrote: I would warn Gujarat that these things can shift at any moment. Remember 10 years ago all the rage was Chandrababu Naidu and his AP revolution. Yet he lost and AP was since remained at the back of the pack in the South. Leaders come and go, visions change all the time. Much better to put some roots and a base to this growth. Change the way society is organized, something Naidu did not focus enough on.

haven't been following the discussion but the above is true. I don't think any politician in 60 years has suffered the kind of fall from grace that Naidu has. his fall was steep and very rapid. he is still recovering from that. it unlikely if he will ever reach that height again.

for such a "smart" guy, he failed to grasp the basic socio-political setup of India/AP. this has boggled me for years. he didn't become a 2-term AP CM by being an idiot. he was an adept at handling various factions from all corners. yet, his arrogance made him "alien" to the "grassroots" that once supported him....his example will be a case study in Indian politics and neta-people relations for a long time to come.

For such "SMART" guy he married his son to his own cousin (business Interests are more important than the very real dangers of genetic inbreeding). Some of smartness was more media managed. But yes he did a lot of good. Even today you can see the impact of flyovers in Secunderabad or the nice parking outside MMTC stations in Hyd.

His Government put AP on the Map from where the INC is doing its best to vanish. YSR good goverence was all about dishing out Freebees (arogya sri scheme types), generous pay hikes to Government employees and Upward lift irrigation project (god knows from where 8200MW required for it will come) but contractors and businessmen made a killing. Coastal Evengelists except a few Like KA Paul (who moved to Massa and started getting involved in West AFrica related issues) after a fall out with 'Brother Anil Kumar' also made a lot of money.

His management of finances gave a heart attack to then FM of AP K. Rosiah. Today AP exchequer is Bancrupt and hence this Telegana Hallabaloo and the real issue of bad goverence is hidden from public view.

Its really sad the real issue of bad governance is not discussed but everybody in AP is only discussing Telegana. Sometimes Bad Administrators make real Good politicians through the Divide and Loot route.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 21 Oct 2011 00:18

India's trade to sniff at $1 trillion by 2025: HSBC
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 393514.cms

MUMBAI: The country will clock the highest growth in trade and will sniff at USD 1 trillion by 2025, around three times its size today, says a report by the British lender HSBC.
The report expects the trade, both merchandise exports and imports to grow by 156 percent during the period, while the global trade will be growing at 73 percent in the next 15 years with an annual growth of 2 percent until 2015, the bank said in its report titled HSBC Trade Connections. "India's trade will grow 156 percent by 2025 with its trade volumes reaching USD 976.7 billion and will be amongst the top five international powerhouses that will drive world trade growth until 2025," HSBC India head for trade and supply chain Bhriguraj Singh said releasing the report here today. In 2010, the country's merchandise trade stood at USD 339 billion and accounted for just 1.2 percent of world trade. However, despite this huge jump in trade, the report says, the country's share in world trade will be just 2 percent by 2025. "Trade with the UAE and China is expected to grow by 190 percent and 165 percent respectively, making the UAE, the country's largest trading partner by 2025," says the report.

( They are off by 7 years and a trillion Dollar)

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 21 Oct 2011 01:09

There are several errors in the estimates here.
The global trade will change with the demographic change between the developed world and the emerging economies
Some unforecasted events will c hange the global trade - such currency/wars etc

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 21 Oct 2011 01:35

MGNREGS statistics for Andhra Pradesh.

Look at the number of registered card holders - 1.2 Crores.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 21 Oct 2011 07:15

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-1 ... -cars.html
Lamborghini Zigzags India Rickshaws to Snare Millionaires: Cars
.

20 (Bloomberg) -- Lamborghini SpA sees opportunity in the streets of Mumbai, where three-wheeled rickshaws zigzag through bumper-to-bumper traffic on pot-hole-infested roads.
Volkswagen AG’s supercar maker plans to open its second dealership in India this year to meet increased demand for cars including the 36.9-million rupee ($750,600) Aventador, said Mohan Mariwala, managing director of Lamborghini Mumbai. Ferrari SpA, which opened its first dealership in the country in May, says it plans to open four more by the end of next year.
The surging number of millionaires, projected to more than double in India by 2015.The wealth at the top of the pyramid is growing at a much faster pace,” said Deepesh Rathore, the New Delhi-based managing director in India for IHS Automotive. “Every month there is a new segment of buyers for these cars. People don’t take out loans to buy a Lamborghini.”
The number of millionaires in India will increase to 403,000 by 2015 from 173,000 in 2010, Julius Baer Group Ltd. and CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets said in a report in August. The growing wealth is expected to drive demand for exotic cars -- including Lamborghini, Aston Martin and Bentley -- to about 500 a year by 2020, from 180 last year, IHS estimates.
A.T. Kearney estimates the Indian luxury-car market will grow 32 percent a year over the next five years from $745 million in 2009.Supercar ClubCustomers include members of the Super Car Club, who regularly meet and drive to Pune via a 100-kilometer (62 miles) expressway with their Lamborghini Gallardos, Porsche 911s and Ferrari 458 Italias. Membership in the club has grown 10-fold to about 200 since it was formed two years ago, according to founder Gautam Singhania.

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 21 Oct 2011 08:52

whats happened to Naidu will not happen to Modi...

In Naidu's era agriculture was widely neglected and there were widely circulated reports of farmer suicide...While in Guj agriculture has grown at 9-10% real growth rate since his arrival... Indeed out put is now 5-6 times higher...

Only state in the country where farmers don't care about monsoon... Infra is doing decently..

The communal agenda of congress was never popular..besides there is strong anti-incumbency against UPA at centre and pro-incumbency of modi at the state...naidu and modi are poles apart...

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 21 Oct 2011 09:48

The UPA still gets a significant percentage of the vote in Gujarat, doesn't it? IMO, in case Gujarat wishes to emulate the SK miracle, it will be vulnerable until an effective ban on Congress is enacted, similar to the constitutional ban imposed on Communists in South Korea.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 21 Oct 2011 09:51

afair, CBN only focussed on Hyd and personal branding, not a broad based rural led revolution. cyberabad, futureabad, ISB, shamshabad airport, Microsoft IDC, a host of high profile plans for Hyd....

in contrast Ahmedabad, surat and baroda remain at a low key with no such 'showpiece' projects. gujarat is hardly in the headlines and is not even a big tourist destination (they are trying to market kutch now).

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 21 Oct 2011 11:24

India Slowing: Why Pranab-da ends up falling short…

anishns · Post by **anishns** » 21 Oct 2011 15:43

Wonder if this was posted before???

NREGA funds used for buying SUVs: Jairam

Another scam on the horizon!!!

Jai ho! World's largest kleptocracy Jai ho!

Vipul · Post by **Vipul** » 21 Oct 2011 19:23

There can be no comparison between NaMo and CBN for the simple reason that for all of the Hype of IT in Andhra Pradesh(more hype then substance if you see the figures for IT exports in comparison to the other states), the effects/advantages were felt by a limited few.
Where as the advantages of good/firm/no-nonsense Governance are felt by everybody in Guj.