India / Afghanistan - A New Strategic Relationship

[RajeshA]

RajeshA, Try to group the survey answers into governance, intl relations, Taiban talks and such to make sense of it. The big picture is the Afghans want good governance and all that goes with it.

Grouping survey questions accordingly!

Recently there was a study conducted by the Konrad-Adenauer Foundation of Germany in Afghanistan. It polled 5000 Afghans from 5 provinces in Afghanistan, 1000 from each province (Kabul, Herat, Nangarhar, Khost and Balkh). 23 questions were put to them.


POLITICAL SYSTEM
1) Are you satisfied with the democratic evolution of Afghanistan?
YES: 51 NO: 49

5) In your view, are the political parties relevant in Afghanistan?
YES: 45 NO: 55

6) Is democracy the best political system for Afghanistan?
YES: 47 NO: 53

7) Would you vote in the next elections?
YES: 66 NO: 34

GOVERNANCE
2) Are you satisfied with the performance of the Government?
YES: 31 NO: 69

3) Are you satisfied with the performance of the new Parliament?
YES: 23 NO: 77

4) Do you trust the various organs of the State (Ministries, Departments, etc)?
YES: 28 NO: 72


SECURITY
8 ) Are you satisfied with the security situation in Afghanistan?
YES: 22 NO: 78

11) Can the Taliban be defeated militarily?
YES: 46 NO: 54

12) Are you in favor of a pullout by the NATO/ISAF troops in 2014?
YES: 57 NO: 43

13) Do you believe that Osama bin Laden is dead?
YES: 57 NO: 43

14) Does the terror organization Al Qaeda still pose a threat?
YES: 70 NO: 30

15) Do you see NATO/ISAF as a guarantor of security for Afghanistan?
YES: 39 NO: 61

16) Do you see NATO/ISAF as an occupier?
YES: 56 NO: 44

17) Would there be a renewed civil war after the pullout of NATO/ISAF?
YES: 60 NO: 40

18) Are you satisfied with the performance of Afghan security forces?
YES: 46 NO: 54


POLITICAL SOLUTION TO WAR
9) Should the Government negotiate with the Taliban?
YES: 63 NO: 37

10) Should Taliban be allowed to share in the political power?
YES: 51 NO: 49


INTERNATIONAL INVOLVEMENT & RELATIONS
19) Do you see it as important, to intensify bilateral relations with Islamic Republic of Iran?
YES: 70 NO: 30

20) Do you see it as important, to intensify bilateral relations with Islamic Republic of Pakistan?
YES: 58 NO: 42

21) Do you see it as important, to intensify bilateral relations with USA?
YES: 64 NO: 36

22) Do you see it as important, to intensify bilateral relations with Republic of India?
YES: 76 NO: 24

23) Are you satisfied with the level of engagement of the international community?
YES: 47 NO: 53

[RajeshA]

India should open recruitment for the Pashtun Scouts or Pashtun Rifles - as a new regiment in the IA

Lalmohan ji,

nice of you to focus our attention on this measure. I too have been speaking out in favor of such a strategy!

We should however have one clear policy! Indian forces are not going to partake in the counter-insurgency operations in Afghanistan, including in the Pushtun areas. Indian advisers can be deputed to Afghan National Security Forces in an embedded capacity, but Indian security units should not be active in Afghanistan in an independent capacity.

Otherwise we could forfeit all the goodwill we have earned till date in Afghanistan!

Having said that, we should raise some Pushtun Force as part of Indian Army as well. We could deploy them in the following circumstances:

1. They could be stationed in India, being a part of Indian Army, and be deployed wherever the Indian Army gets deployed.
2. They could be embedded with the Afghan National Security Forces as advisers.
3. They can be used for intelligence gathering in Pushtun areas of Afghanistan.
4. They can be used for intelligence gathering in Pushtun areas of Pakistan.
5. They can be used for all sorts of covert operations in Pakistan.

However we should emphasize always that we are not using Afghan territory to wage some sort of covert war against Pakistan.

[Prem]

India should open recruitment for the Pashtun Scouts or Pashtun Rifles - as a new regiment in the IA

Lalmohan ji,
nice of you to focus our attention on this measure. I too have been speaking out in favor of such a strategy!ys that we are not using Afghan territory to wage some sort of covert war against Pakistan.

JO-INAF Army Corp with HQ in Both Jalalabad and Jammu with roatating commander. Same for Joint Air Force. Afghan territory should not be used for covert war against Pakistan ,It must be a overt war .

[SwamyG]

Afghanistan Minerals! A game India has to play

I say it is wise to be suspicious and play it with caution, and not rush into judgments and agreements. It is not like Pakistan is going to take away Afghanistan You might believe in one of those (conspiracy) theories or think human ingenuity can address all problems of life, and if minerals exist in Afghanistan, some company will extract it and profit. So why not an Indian company, you ask me. I have no answer. This is where I invite you to ponder about reading rest of the blog Is it worth your time, when I do not have any answer but just a gut feeling to be suspicious. Some times such gut feeling might have to take a back seat, especially when one considers China's presence in Afghanistan.

Comments please.

[Altair]

Lalmohan ji,
nice of you to focus our attention on this measure. I too have been speaking out in favor of such a strategy!ys that we are not using Afghan territory to wage some sort of covert war against Pakistan.

JO-INAF Army Corp with HQ in Both Jalalabad and Jammu with roatating commander. Same for Joint Air Force. Afghan territory should not be used for covert war against Pakistan ,It must be a overt war .

Prem
If only I had a "Like" button here similar to one in facebook.
Awesome.Tumhare mooh me motichoor laddu
Altair

[svinayak]

JO-INAF Army Corp with HQ in Both Jalalabad and Jammu with roatating commander. Same for Joint Air Force. Afghan territory should not be used for covert war against Pakistan ,It must be a overt war .

India need a AF base like Baghram.
This should be a forward base and should be transit point for Indian - flyover routes for air transit.

[RajeshA]

India should open recruitment for the Pashtun Scouts or Pashtun Rifles - as a new regiment in the IA

Lalmohan ji,
nice of you to focus our attention on this measure. I too have been speaking out in favor of such a strategy!

<snip>

that we are not using Afghan territory to wage some sort of covert war against Pakistan.

JO-INAF Army Corp with HQ in Both Jalalabad and Jammu with roatating commander. Same for Joint Air Force. Afghan territory should not be used for covert war against Pakistan ,It must be a overt war .

As things stand, Pakistan has got a virtual grip over the Taliban. They have been able to convince many of the Pushtuns that NATO/ISAF is an occupying force of Crusaders/Kufr and Jihad is the call of the hour!

As such there have been both many recruits for the Taliban, as well as tolerance, acquiescence and even support for them from among the general populace! The result has been very clear! NATO/ISAF have lost. Their partners in Afghanistan, the Afghan Government, the warlords in Afghan Parliament, and the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) have not been able to defeat the Taliban. This is in spite of the sizable deployment of soldiers, weaponry and cash by the USA and the coalition partners. That is the whole story!

What is India going to be doing differently? That is the question that confronts us!

How can India convince the Pushtuns that when we are in Afghanistan, that we are not trying to suppress them, use them for target practice, or use their land and shoulders to wage our wars?!

It is not as if Pushtuns are just waiting for Indians in Afghanistan with wide-open arms, swearing to our age-old friendship and saying we will live, love and die together! Indians really have some heavy-duty work for us in Afghanistan to win over the Pushtuns! Sure Tajiks have a strong affinity for India. I also don't doubt that the normal Pushtun also likes India. But we also have to take cognizance of the years of Islamization that has been drilled into their psyche by the Pakistanis.

The Pakistanis would be trying their level best to paint India and Indians as just another occupier in Afghanistan! They will incite hate against us, and they will encourage the Taliban to go and kill any Indian they see! In such an environment, we have to both pull normal Pushtuns as well as the more radicalized Pushtuns - the Taliban from under the thumb of Pakistan. We have to paint Pakistan here as the evil and that too within the ranks of the Taliban! Sounds like an impossible task?

Well we are Indians and we know how to beat the Pakis and their proxies best!

So some suggestions:

1) India becomes an very visible developmental force in Afghanistan! We need to go on a propaganda offensive, though without making it offensive or humiliating the Afghans. Afghans need to see Indian work through their eyes, small projects here and there, but projects through which the Afghans feel that India is helping without strings attached - India-educated doctors, Hospitals named after Indians or in Hindi, Higher Education Colleges named after Indians, water pumps, schools, some training programs, etc.

2) With regard to security, India should become completely invisible! There would be no security personnel be seen anywhere wearing Indian uniforms. Indian trainers would be embedded in the Afghan National Security Forces and they will be wearing the same Afghan uniforms. India's Pushtun Forces (part of the Indian Army) may even move around in civilian clothes and may not even tell anybody that they work for India. The only Indians wearing uniforms would be those who would be guarding diplomatic and commercial Indian facilities in Afghanistan. So when Pakistanis tell Afghans about the Indian bogey, the Afghans, Pushtun or otherwise should say, they don't see any Indians killing Afghans, or otherwise subjugating them!

3) We should not be seen having too much influence over the strategic decisions of Afghanistan. The Afghan Government and the Afghan Parliament make those decisions. Not India. If Afghans attack Pakistan, then it is because Afghans want to attack Pakistan, and not because India tells them. That should be the general impression. India should not be seen as being the power behind the Afghan Government. That would only erode Afghan Government's legitimacy. Also if the Afghan National Security Forces are seen as being too heavily controlled by India, then again the resistance, say the Taliban, would make it seem as if the Afghan National Security Forces work for India. This is again not an impression we want to raise there. That is why IMVHO, I think the idea of having Joint Forces - India and Afghanistan, would be a non-starter. This can take place only after the Pushtuns and the rest have consolidated their nation, and the Pushtuns do not look to Pakistan for guidance anymore.

4) We have to break Pakistan's monopoly of control on Afghan Taliban. We have to buy over some of the Taliban commanders, who can then openly declare war on Pakistan, as an occupying power in Afghanistan. We have to rekindle Pushtun Nationalism, especially in Pakistani Pushtun region.

5) We should be inviting all the influential Afghans to India and showering them with some hospitality. We need to have an intensive dialogue going both in the security field as well as within the civilian society. As such invite the Afghan Parliamentarians to India, irrespective of their credentials. They should be photographed and filmed in India. One has to show that there is friendship across the ethnic board.

6) We should be having Indians going over to Afghanistan and making movies about the landscape there and the people there, and how they live, and their stories. Show those movies in Afghanistan and India. Let's show that Indians are interested in the people there, and not just the minerals and Afghanistan's strategic location or potential to cause harm to Pakistan, India's enemy!

7) We should have our bases across the border in Tajikistan, or even Uzbekistan, but not in Afghanistan itself. If they are in Afghanistan, we would surely look like occupiers! We cannot afford to make the same mistakes as USA/NATO/ISAF.

We have a good account of goodwill in Afghanistan and we should build on it and not let Pakistan destroy it!

[sum]

X-post:

Sheela Bhatt seems to have caught onto a lot of senior MEA folks dealing with Afg. Lots of Tit-bits:
ANALYSIS: Why Indo-Afghan deal makes Pakistan nervous

"It is not worth it if you don't have any strategic agreement in country where you are spending $2 billion (about Rs 9,800 crore)," said a senior officer in government dealing with Afghanistan and Pakistan when asked about which factors necessitated the Indo-Afghan Strategic Partnership agreement. He said, "Look around India. Has India invested so much and so well in any other country? In which other country is India is spending so much money?"

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and President Hamid Karzai signed an agreement that was in making since the last one year on October 4, says the officer in the Prime Minister's Office.

Dr Singh himself had said on eve of signing the agreement, "based on intensive consultations and deliberations, we have finalised an agreement on a strategic partnership."

The Indian officer added, "It was not done in hurry. We were working on it. There was nothing secret about it because what we wanted to say we said it in the May, 2011 joint declaration in Kabul." He insisted that the strategic partnership agreement is just collection of all that India and Afghanistan are doing together.

India is also giving Karzai some support when he is getting weaker and weaker. Also, the strategic agreement is a natural progression for India, who has pumped whopping $2 billion in the region without any substantial strategic gain, so far. Within India, few analysts were arguing since long that India is not doing enough to consolidate its soft power in Afghanistan.

The officer gave the argument that, "Some people said India is doing nothing in Afghanistan. Also, there is a school of thought in India who said India should pack up from Kabul and return. We can't give away space to Pakistan, since terrorism will grow. We shall not allow that to happen."{ luckily, no MKB logic here}

The agreement is also seen as India's gamble in the region where the 'anti-India' Taliban controls a substantial area. If the aims of strategic partnership fails, India will continue remaining under threat of insecurity as it is today, thinks the Indian establishment.

However, strong adverse reactions from Western commentators and Pakistani experts has not deterred the Indian side. Informed sources claim that when Dr Singh went to Kabul in May, everything was ready to embark upon a 'strategic partnership'.

When the agreement was conceived, Karzai was reluctant, initially.

But, as more details of American and Pakistan's links with the Taliban came out, the agreement made sense, claims the Indian side. The assassination of former Afghan president Burhanuddin Rabbani prompted Karzai to arrive at a decision to go in for an agreement. However, sources are denying firmly that it has anything to do with Rabbani's assassination.

"You should read carefully the May 12 joint declaration when Dr Singh visited Kabul. Not a word is added to it in October. Then, the strategic partnership was formed, but, wasn't signed," says the Indian diplomat involved in the process.

Some Indian critics are saying that by signing the agreement with Karzai, India is alienating the Pashtuns who are averse to his leadership. Dilip Hiro, distinguished writer on international affairs, in his article Slippery Road Ahead (external link), said that, "For India to see the Taliban precluded from power-sharing in the post-NATO Afghanistan is tantamount to excluding Hindi speakers from the government in New Delhi. The Pashtuns, forming 42 to 46 per cent of Afghanistan's population, support the Taliban by a wide margin. The 13 Pashtun-majority provinces, out of 34, account for 55 percent of the country's 30 million people."

n response, an Indian officer told rediff.com, "These critics are not well-informed. They seem to be considering all the Pashtuns as the Taliban. The Taliban is significant force. But not all Pashtuns are Taliban." After a pause, he added, "As it is the Taliban is not going to change their view of India with or without this agreement."

The senior officer, while continuing to talk off the record, further said, "People like Hiro who are talking about India's relations with Pashtuns do not know the changing ground realities. Do they know what's happening on the ground? In the last couple of years India's new aid is going only to Pashtun-dominated areas in Afghanistan. All our SDPs (small development programmes) are running in Pashtun majority areas. In fact, people from the northern area are complaining. Our import of fruits and dry fruits under the South Asian Free Trade Agreement is growing."

In fact, Kandahar, city dominated by Pashtuns, exports more than $50 million (about Rs 245 crore) worth of fruits and dry fruits every year of which India is the largest importer. The growers and the truck owners who transport the products are mainly Pashtun.

These Pashtuns truck-owners of Afghanistan and Pakistan's North-West Frontier Province have developed the vested interest in the business, says the officer. He says, "Fruits and dry fruits from Kandahar comes through Wagah border even today. They gain through the peaceful relationship amongst the three countries. India is the fifth largest trading partner of Afghanistan."

However, within the Indian establishment there is no hype. An intelligence officer in a security establishment dealing with Pakistan-Afghanistan said, "The strategic agreement is on paper. There is a long way to go. The entire event will become significant if only Karzai requests, I repeat, if only he sends a request to India to train its soldiers or requests us to equip their regiments. That demand is unlikely to come. Karzai knows he can't push Pakistan beyond a point. We are training some of their senior army officers in India but that's not unknown."

He, repeatedly, emphasised that, "The strategic agreement will be implemented by mutual consultation only."

A diplomat, who was part of the team that dealt with Karzai's team, said, "We have strategic agreements with many other countries. So this agreement is one more addition."

But, when counter-argued that in case of India's relations with Afghanistan, Pakistan is the elephant in the room, the diplomat responded, "Let it remain in the room. Do you succumb to it? We have a function to perform in Afghanistan. We are fulfilling our role."

[Lilo]

A few more thoughts ...

Because of the Pakthoon lands under its control , Pakistan has strategic depth with respect to Afghanistan.

In the future, if Afghanistan transforms itself into a viable nation state in other aspects, the Pakjabi army will still relentlessly stoke fire on its border. In return the ANA even if well trained and well equipped conventionally , will be unable to retaliate with full force against the Pakthoon lands under Paki control. All the while Pakjabis can resort to small arm fire, rockets, artillery shelling and subversive activities with impunity into Afghan lands.

With this in mind, the training by Indian Army should emphasize on improving the capabilities of ANA and especially RAMA(Research and Analysis Milli Afghan) to develop resources for covert Ops in Pakthoon lands with support from ethnic Pakthoons of KhyberPakthoonwa and Baluchistan. These should be aimed to generally increase attrition rates of Pakjabi army in Pakthoon lands , restrict its maneuvering capabilities and in effect make it to be cooped inside static strongholds.

Most importantly both "Frontier Corps" and "Good Taliban" should be exposed for what they are and be thoroughly delegitimized as a gandoo*("Kwas Lakey") force of Pakjabis in the Pakthoon mind space.

For all the above to happen, the present skewed representation of Pakthoons in ANA must be corrected immediately, either by raising new Pakthoon regiments on ethnic lines or reorganizing existing regiments on ethnic lines. Accomplishing such a reorganization of ANA and its accompanied legitimization in Pakthoon minds (coinciding with the draw down of Americans) will be the trickiest part .

[Prem]

Afghanistan has made noices for needing few fighterplanes to fortify the defences against Poaks . There is only one country which can and should provide immediate assistence in its own national interests. IAF can train Afghan pilots right there in their own home country. IMHO, 2 front air war against Poakmushholelanders will be their ultimate nightmare . Event without war, they will be required to increase the size of PAF for which they will need $$$$$$. If Chinese comes to assist Poakers, they loose Afghanistan, access to CAR etc and jeapordise their own interests. Start with refurbished MIG29s from PSU, our own Bisons and Bhadurs in Afghanistan and Rambhas in Tajikistan. Afghanistan is one stop cure for Poak Mouth and Mush Disease.

[Pranay]

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/worl ... 455950.cms

Either this rhetoric is meant strictly for internal consumption in Afghanistan/Pakistan or the Mayor of Kabul - Mr. Hamid Karzai has seriously lost it...

"God forbid, if at any time there is a war between Pakistan and America, then we will be with Pakistan," Karzai said in an interview with Pakistan's Geo News, excerpts of which were aired by the channel this afternoon.

Asked specifically if Afghanistan would back Pakistan if it was attacked by India, Karzai replied: "Anybody that attacks Pakistan, Afghanistan will stand with Pakistan. Afghanistan will be a brother of Pakistan. Afghanistan will never betray a brother".

When Karzai was asked what he would do if there was a war between Pakistan and India, he replied: "If Pakistan is attacked by anyone, and if the people of Pakistan need Afghanistan's help, Afghanistan will be there with you".

Kazrai had been critical of Pakistan's role after the assassination of former President and peace envoy Burhanuddin Rabbani. The Afghan President even said that the Taliban will not be able to move a finger without Pakistani support.

However, Karzai turned soft on Pakistan during the interview, calling it a "brother".

"Afghanistan is a brother. (Despite) all that the Pakistani establishment has done to Afghanistan, Afghanistan is still a brother," he added.

At the same time, Karzai sought to address Pakistan's concerns about the strategic partnership agreement signed recently by Afghanistan and India, saying the two countries had been working on the pact for years.

"Now, our relation with India, our signing of the strategic partnership with India, it did not happen at the spur of the moment. This is something that we have been working on for years now," Karzai said.

"But the visit (to India) was not after these troubles that took place. It was planned long, long before," he added.

Karzai's recent visit to India during which New Delhi and Kabul signed a strategic partnership agreement had come amid tensions in Afghanistan's ties with Pakistan.

Karzai also said the tensions between the US and Pakistan had not had an impact on Kabul's attitude towards Islamabad.

"You know that we have had this engagement with Pakistan for a long time and if it comes to a brother-to-brother relationship, you'll find that Afghanistan will be there with you in times of difficulty," he said.

However, Karzai said there was "pain" in Afghanistan over Pakistan's dealing with his country.

"Please, brother, stop using all methods that hurt us and are now hurting you. Let's engage from a different platform, a platform in which the two brothers only progress towards a better future in peace and harmony. And Afghanistan will be with you," he said.

[pran]

Interesting , Karzai is basically saying the same thing what US and India is saying. It is like
3+2 = 4+1 = 0+5
and let Pakis figure out the end result using their madrassa math.

[Samudragupta]

Basically Karzai is saying that in the event of war ANA will be with(in) PAkistan

Having said that Karzai is an Iranian stooge...trying to extend Iranian influence in the Hindukush...

[Muppalla]

US may be asking something big from Pakis and the threat of US attacking Pak is coming via Karzai in an intelligent fashion.

[SwamyG]

Karzai might be corrupt, I doubt he is a fool. If he said whatever he said, he knew it is a meaningless statement only for assuaging Pakistan's sensitive H&D. He very well knows Afghanistan, USA and India's strengths & weaknesses. He just conveyed what America or India wanted to convey or he was just playing nice to Pakistan - I wonder why though. Does he really think they are "brothers" ? Before the blood relations become any thicker, we need to dilute it to make them immiscible.

[Altair]

Karzai might be corrupt, I doubt he is a fool. If he said whatever he said, he knew it is a meaningless statement only for assuaging Pakistan's sensitive H&D. He very well knows Afghanistan, USA and India's strengths & weaknesses. He just conveyed what America or India wanted to convey or he was just playing nice to Pakistan - I wonder why though. Does he really think they are "brothers" ? Before the blood relations become any thicker, we need to dilute it to make them immiscible.

Karzai is buying time by making such statements. He is just trying to save people who cannot defend themselves. If he had said Pakistan is a mortal enemy and must be killed with no mercy, ISI would have made sure a dozen helpless people would have perished. Pakistan is desperate to send a message to US and Afghans after they amassed troops on border.Pakistan in its current mental state would see that statement by Karzai as an oasis in a desert. Any plans of massacre would have been put on hold. Something big is coming and everybody has made plans,Karzai,US and India included. Just because we do not have privileged information does not mean we dismiss everything as nonsense and everyone as corrupt. All the statements are pre-planned.

[VinodTK]

When Karzai was asked what he would do if there was a war between Pakistan and India, he replied: "If Pakistan is attacked by anyone, and if the people of Pakistan need Afghanistan's help, Afghanistan will be there with you".

The above statement proves the point; that is, if a pig is born in a stable it does not become horse, it is still a pig.

Hope Pakistan has its way Afghanistan and takes it back to stone age once US leaves. This would be a payback to Afghanistan for all the misery they heaped on India in the past.

[shyamd]

The answer to Why Karzai said what he said, depends on how it is interpreted:
- It could be a sign of weakness - how? is this a discrete ploy to beg TSPA to let his govt live and show he can still be a good neighbour and defend TSPian interest?
- Toe'ing the Iranian line.
- Discrete warning to Pak that the US is going to attack.

[anupmisra]

Oh, Grow up people!!

Rabbani is gone. Karzai's days are near. Karzai may eventually be a bigger follower of Chanakya-niti than you or I. With a strategic statement like that to a paki TV (if true), Karzai has killed several birds with one stone without batting an eyelid. The pakis will no longer need to chase after that elusive "strategic depth" and the Afghans can go about doing their "business" of killing each other without any interference from their cross-border brothers.

Besides, talk is cheap. The Afghans and pakis deserve each other. Ever been on an Afghan forum? There is no love for Indians or any SDREs there. The 5000-year old Indian sub-continental history is rife with cases of double-talk, double deals and vishwas-ghaat. Why go far? There are plenty of instances of such double crosses between us Hindus. So why raise such a hue and cry, and pretend that we all are shocked!! Get real.

That's why I admire the American policy. Call us what ever. For us, there are no long term friends (not even the Brits or the Canadians, and they know it). Its only us. There are only short term strategic needs. Learn it. Apply it. Live it. You will never get hurt again.

Added TV Interview Link: Kabuliwala's TV Interview

[devesh]

anupmisra ji,

thanks for a dose of reality. ultimately, we shouldn't forget that Afghans couldn't care less for us. we should reciprocate that. even long term, the present Pashtun class will never be a "friend" of India. eventually, when Pak breaks up, we will realize that Pashtuns can be as much of a worry as Pakjabis. only thing we can hope from them is to spoil any Pakjabi fantasies. this is where Afghans should be put to use. they should be in a position to put an end of any Paki delusions.

[RoyG]

Karzai might be corrupt, I doubt he is a fool. If he said whatever he said, he knew it is a meaningless statement only for assuaging Pakistan's sensitive H&D. He very well knows Afghanistan, USA and India's strengths & weaknesses. He just conveyed what America or India wanted to convey or he was just playing nice to Pakistan - I wonder why though. Does he really think they are "brothers" ? Before the blood relations become any thicker, we need to dilute it to make them immiscible.

Karzai is buying time by making such statements. He is just trying to save people who cannot defend themselves. If he had said Pakistan is a mortal enemy and must be killed with no mercy, ISI would have made sure a dozen helpless people would have perished. Pakistan is desperate to send a message to US and Afghans after they amassed troops on border.Pakistan in its current mental state would see that statement by Karzai as an oasis in a desert. Any plans of massacre would have been put on hold. Something big is coming and everybody has made plans,Karzai,US and India included. Just because we do not have privileged information does not mean we dismiss everything as nonsense and everyone as corrupt. All the statements are pre-planned.

Chances are there wont be anything big. Gradual increase in targeted assassinations with drones, maybe gunships and special forces raids. Elections are right around the corner and he has already committed to the pullout from Iraq. Moreover, the Chinese will not sit and watch while their pet Kutti gets rammed from behind. They will make sure to partake in the action through proxy war and make life hell for the Americans.

[SwamyG]

Just because we do not have privileged information does not mean we dismiss everything as nonsense and everyone as corrupt. All the statements are pre-planned.

In the absence of 'privileged information' how do YOU know all statements are 'pre-planned' ? Anyhow, we are saying the same thing - Karzai does not much care for Pakistan. Also it would be interesting to see what the leaders of Pakistan, America and India react.

[Cosmo_R]

Oh, Grow up people!!

Rabbani is gone. Karzai's days are near. Karzai may eventually be a bigger follower of Chanakya-niti than you or I. With a strategic statement like that to a paki TV (if true), Karzai has killed several birds with one stone without batting an eyelid. The pakis will no longer need to chase after that elusive "strategic depth" and the Afghans can go about doing their "business" of killing each other without any interference from their cross-border brothers.

Besides, talk is cheap. The Afghans and pakis deserve each other. Ever been on an Afghan forum? There is no love for Indians or any SDREs there. The 5000-year old Indian sub-continental history is rife with cases of double-talk, double deals and vishwas-ghaat. Why go far? There are plenty of instances of such double crosses between us Hindus. So why raise such a hue and cry, and pretend that we all are shocked!! Get real.

That's why I admire the American policy. Call us what ever. For us, there are no long term friends (not even the Brits or the Canadians, and they know it). Its only us. There are only short term strategic needs. Learn it. Apply it. Live it. You will never get hurt again.

Added TV Interview Link: Kabuliwala's TV Interview

+1

[Agnimitra]

Besides, talk is cheap. The Afghans and pakis deserve each other. Ever been on an Afghan forum? There is no love for Indians or any SDREs there. The 5000-year old Indian sub-continental history is rife with cases of double-talk, double deals and vishwas-ghaat.

Double talk and vishwas ghaat? If I was in Karzai's place I would also be forced to do this slobbering, fawning reassurance to the Pakis. After all, what reason would I have to be confident of India's support? What have Indians done to show me they will extend a strong hand just when I need it most? Have Indians demonstrated the willingness to get their hands dirty even for causes they show sympathy for? Baluchis are being ethnically cleansed in their own land, have Indians done anything major? For Tibetans? For Afghans? Myanmarese? Nothing bold and decisive yet. And still Indians expect Afghans and others to stand up and boldly tell the Pakis to eff off. Why not show these proteges how?!

Af-Pak, ME and WA are not places where mere word-jugglery and intellectual gas can fly. Its a tough neighborhood, where brotherhood is signed in blood, and enmity is also treated like a blood feud. Indian "SDRE brahmin" policymakers need to understand that cultural point thoroughly, and translate the difference practically.

[SwamyG]

I don't think Indians expect Afghans to show the middle finger to Pakistan. India has contributed $2 billion for Afghan recovery. Is it peanuts? What has Tibet or Burma go to do with Afghan? Oh btw, Karzai studied in N.Delhi.

[harbans]

After all, what reason would I have to be confident of India's support? What have Indians done to show me they will extend a strong hand just when I need it most? Have Indians demonstrated the willingness to get their hands dirty even for causes they show sympathy for? Baluchis are being ethnically cleansed in their own land, have Indians done anything major? For Tibetans? For Afghans? Myanmarese? Nothing bold and decisive yet. And still Indians expect Afghans and others to stand up and boldly tell the Pakis to eff off.

Carl, was thinking just along your lines. What if when Karzai was in Delhi and Indian WKK/ MKB types told Karzai of US duplicity and Indian inability, non interference in Baluchistan etc..what if Karzai's statement is taken in context with Indian 'backbonelessness' in display during his visit. Who really would want an ally like MKB or SMK? What do they stand for if they cannot stand for even their own country when it is completely in the correct. South block is well known for it's dithering stand. Something happened that possibly pissed off Karzai in Delhi. Maybe..but it could be a credible hunch.

India has contributed $2 billion for Afghan recovery. Is it peanuts? What has Tibet or Burma go to do with Afghan?

Indeed. Tibet and Burma as well as Libya India showed fence sitting, dithering and mollycoddling. It suffered too as a result. Indian foreign policy specially of later has seen INdia playing both ways. Not something very reassuring in our sort of neighbourhood. MMS and his team are all WKK's..lets also try and see it as Carl ji puts it..or say from the Afghan POV.

[CRamS]

I cautioned a while back to hold off a bit on the self-congratulatory mood that engulfed the forum after Karzai's visit to Delhi. Karzai's latest sucking up to TSP is a pointer that the agreement he signed in Delhi doesn't mean much. Even TSP will acquiesce to India playing the role of girl scouts not only Afghanistan but entire "South Asia", provided they as the TFTA martial race will be the badshahs. And I agree with the assesment that Karzai knows fully well that neither USA that has the wherewithal to obliterate TSP, nor India that has neither the wherewithal nor b@lls; will actually confront TSP. So rather than go the lamp-post after US leaves, he's decided to gubo before TSP.

[Altair]

Just because we do not have privileged information does not mean we dismiss everything as nonsense and everyone as corrupt. All the statements are pre-planned.

In the absence of 'privileged information' how do YOU know all statements are 'pre-planned' ? Anyhow, we are saying the same thing - Karzai does not much care for Pakistan. Also it would be interesting to see what the leaders of Pakistan, America and India react.

By pre-planned I meant that the leaders do not mouth off "statements" without proper discussion with various people in their team. Before releasing any statements there would be discussions about possible repercussions and they choose one that costs least damage.Whatever it is the next couple of weeks would be very interesting to watch.History is being made here.

[harbans]

Whatever it is the next couple of weeks would be very interesting to watch.History is being made here.

Just curious. But what do you think will happen in the next couple of weeks?

[Altair]

Whatever it is the next couple of weeks would be very interesting to watch.History is being made here.

Just curious. But what do you think will happen in the next couple of weeks?

In short.I am expecting a coup in Pakistan.

[CRamS]

In short.I am expecting a coup in Pakistan.

Nah. TSPA rules the roost anyway, so how is a formal coup d'tat going to change anything, at least in having to deliver on HilaryJi's demands?

[Dilbu]

Del

[ramana]

He bothered to answer Harbans question. So what is your expectation?

[Dilbu]

Being directly in charge will put more pressure on TSPA. They will be happy to have some civilian cover to do the dog and pony show for unkil's entertainment.

[harbans]

In short.I am expecting a coup in Pakistan.

Nah.. you are contradicting yourself..see this is what you wrote:

Whatever it is the next couple of weeks would be very interesting to watch.History is being made here.

A coup in Porkistan is not exactly History being made is it?

[ramana]

So what do you think?

[harbans]

Ramana Ji, Coup in Pakistan is History being repeated..?

[ramana]

Did you note that TSP coup happens with regularity whenever they lose confidence in the civilian leadership can stave off the 'danger' to their state? Ayub in 1958, Yahaya in 1969, Zia in 1977, Mushy in 1998. ie about every ten years TSP goes from crisis to worse crisis. So its time now.

[chetak]

I don't think Indians expect Afghans to show the middle finger to Pakistan. India has contributed $2 billion for Afghan recovery. Is it peanuts? What has Tibet or Burma go to do with Afghan? Oh btw, Karzai studied in N.Delhi.

sorry for the nitpick

This eminent lamp post seeker..........

" He studied political science at Himachal Pradesh University in Simla, India. He received an honorary doctorate in literature from Himachal University in 2003".

[Altair]

Ramana Ji, Coup in Pakistan is History being repeated..?

Actually you may be wrong this time as it would be different. All previous coups in Pakistan were bloodless. So yes History is being made here.
ramana garu
I expect a bloody coup this time in Pakistan. What are your views?
Altair