West Asia News and Discussions

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 30 Oct 2011 20:36

In Israeli interests, Israel is finished if the US leaves the GCC - maybe 5 - 10 years life at the max. Main thing is for the US to get the economy churning again. The good thing is that the Israeli military was built to sustain and fight any conventional army in the region. Thankfully, the US won't leave that region until the oil dries out. As I said earlier, the Israeli's are being surrounded now by the GCC allied groups.

The PA now works directly with Israel and the relationship today is so good that Israel just tells the PA who they want and PA will get whoever requested. If one wants to infiltrate weapons into that region, it can be done relatively easily. Just as Syria showed when it conducted the terror attack in Jerusalem via its offshoots.

B ji is right, the Russians are re-newing their focus on Lebanon and Yemen - supporting Hezbollah and other assorted groups there. But keep in mind that Israel was arming the Azeri's and the Russians got cheesed off with the intervention in their neighbourhood.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 30 Oct 2011 20:43

IF US leaves the area Israel might bring out the kraken if the Arabs continue to spew hate.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 30 Oct 2011 22:13

What is israel's kraken?

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 30 Oct 2011 23:11

The problem with Israel is that it is a small country and it has concentrated all its Jews in one place only! Problem is the small Jewish population and today its vulnerability to a nuclear attack from the Muslim countries in the region! Even if Israel were to retaliate somehow through some second strike option, there are just too many "enemies" to obliterate. They will be able to take down only a few, while the others would have a hearty laugh!

Israel is a little country with a small population under siege, and both Israel and the Jews in general need to develop a long term solution which can ensure their survival!

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 31 Oct 2011 01:56

RajeshA wrote:The problem with Israel is that it is a small country and it has concentrated all its Jews in one place only! Problem is the small Jewish population and today its vulnerability to a nuclear attack from the Muslim countries in the region! Even if Israel were to retaliate somehow through some second strike option, there are just too many "enemies" to obliterate. They will be able to take down only a few, while the others would have a hearty laugh!

Israel is a little country with a small population under siege, and both Israel and the Jews in general need to develop a long term solution which can ensure their survival!

They have faced the threat of nukes before. Israel and KSA were close to war. KSA told the US that they will fight if they have to and it could mean using nukes if they are forced to. The KSA moved all their air assets to the north. Both began to fly aggressive patrols. US decided to haul both in. Israeli's said we are just conducting an exercise. KSA said so are we! And eventually the US was able to defuse the situation.

If I was Israel, I would ask KSA to blink first and go in and stabilise WB, Gaza with investments. Then work on a security plan with them/US, something that guarantees Israeli security.

Once this Syria show is over, watch Israel will be pressured to give up (diplomatically) Golan. The plans are ready. Just waiting for implementation. Its a 10 year program that guarantees Israeli security. But there is still a dispute over water.

Speaking about water, this reminds me, Iran and Iraq still have their rivers so in the long run, these countries not only have water resources, they also have masses of oil (unexplored). I'd place my long term bets on these countries but not become over reliant on either the GCC or Iraq/Iran. GCC has no water and this puts them at a disadvantage as they have no natural supply and rely on desalination.

When there is a regime change in Iran to a secular /maybe democratic system, I think it would weaken TSP even further.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 31 Oct 2011 02:14

shyamd wrote:Israel is a little country with a small population under siege, and both Israel and the Jews in general need to develop a long term solution which can ensure their survival!

They have faced the threat of nukes before. Israel and KSA were close to war. KSA told the US that they will fight if they have to and it could mean using nukes if they are forced to. The KSA moved all their air assets to the north. Both began to fly aggressive patrols. US decided to haul both in. Israeli's said we are just conducting an exercise. KSA said so are we! And eventually the US was able to defuse the situation.[/quote]
Which just shows that Israeli existence is very tentative. If multiple parties in WANA get nukes, Israel would face threats from multiple directions, and how many balls can Israel hope to keep in the air for how long?!

shyamd wrote:If I was Israel, I would ask KSA to blink first and go in and stabilise WB, Gaza with investments. Then work on a security plan with them/US, something that guarantees Israeli security.

There is nothing to stabilize! The extremism, the victimization politics, the hate for Jews, the apocalyptic narrative, is something so well ingrained in the Muslim world and the WANA neighborhood, by investing there one would only have better educated rabid people or more prosperous rabid people. Sure there are a few faces of moderation and peace but ...

shyamd wrote:Once this Syria show is over, watch Israel will be pressured to give up (diplomatically) Golan. The plans are ready. Just waiting for implementation. Its a 10 year program that guarantees Israeli security. But there is still a dispute over water.

If Syria can be partitioned, Israel does not need to give Golan to anybody!

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 31 Oct 2011 02:49

The other side knows they will lose everything if they do nuke Israel, so they aren't crazy enough to do it - Not my words but Prince Bandar's. Will Iran do it? We aren't in the business of taking chances. So, lets see what Israel and GCC do.

The hope is that by stabilising Gaza and WB, people rich and focused on economic activity, there is less canon fodder to actually fight. Yes tehre will always be terrorists (the whiff of that potent stuff is like cocaine), but the hope isthat it will be manageable. Thats why I said let the KSA make the first chess move and prove it first. Israel has more to lose than them.

Syria won't be partitioned, simply because it empowers the kurds in Turkey/Iran/Iraq and Syria. Thats in the interests of neither country, so they'll band together to make sure it doesn't happen. I think the reapproachment between Iran and Turkey is really about this.

Hell, in Iraq just because they gave the Kurds an autonomous province, another province started asking for autonomy and freedom to decide on how they want to spend thier money this morning. Maliki went on a huge rant. Ground realities saaaarr. No one will buy it.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 31 Oct 2011 13:48

"Kraken",legendary sea monster.Reads today as Israel's Dolphin class German subs,which are presumed to carry part of Israel's second strike N-capability.

The problem today seen from very prominent Israeli establishment figures like its former Mossad chief and now chief negotiator with the Palestinians,is that there is nothing for the moderates but empty promises,broken for most of the time,especially regarding the building of new settlements in former Palestinian land,supposed to be part of the proposed new state for them.This is pushing the Palestinians into the hands of Hamas in Gaza and the Hiz in Lebanon.The latest round of rocket attacks and Israeli reprisals has already destroyed the faint glow of a thaw in the aftermath of the release of 1000 Palestinian pisoners for one Israeli soldier.

Underscoring the problem and lakck of momentum towards peace is the utter bankruptcy of the western leaders in trying to resolve the conflict.The disgraced mountebankand one of the principal architects of the infamous Iraq War,Tony B.Liar,was appointed as the Middle-East peace coordinator,and didn't even visit Gaza for fear of being heckled! he is now busy on his worldwide lecture tours raking in the shekels by the millions of pounds,a handsome kickback for his insidious role as war criminal in Iraq.Sadly,with the west's abandonment of the Middle-East peace,extremists will flourish and we will see another round of conflict with the usual Biblical tale of each side "smoting" the other ad infinitum.

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 31 Oct 2011 14:52

Surprised to read about KSA and Israel almost going to war..isn't is a fact KSA cares a rats a.s for Palestinians and is basically making some noises to keep the faith-fools happy? Why would they want war with Israel that puts them at disadvantage vis-a-vis Iran? There are even stories of them cooperating on the sly as per Wikileaks?

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 31 Oct 2011 15:26

KSA and Israel have the same threat and are coordinating closely at a high level. There is a coalition of Sunni states plus Israel working to limit iranian influence. They both have good relations at the moment. Mesopotamia, Persia and Arabian peninsula have been at war with each other from the dawn of man kind. So now it is mesopotamia and Persia vs Arabian peninsula plus Israel. The first defeat for persia combo will be Syria - then next will be Iraq next summer.

On the ground, its not unheard to hear of KSA princes boasting of Israeli achievements. They all have plans to integrate Israel economically with the GCC. Most continue to trade already. However, relations with Israel are sometimes opened up to get stuff from teh US - like FTAs.

Israel - Palestine is a matter of principles for KSA. For example, the Arab peace plan was promoted by KSA to solve the issue once in for all. Its not nice for example to see images of Israeli soldiers stamping on a palestinian ladies head (which happened in 2001), the King cut off ties with the US in anger - so it does ignite passions.

The war issue was back in the 80's. I'll have to revisit why it took place.

joshvajohn · Post by **joshvajohn** » 01 Nov 2011 00:29

Palestine becomes member of Unesco, US threatens to halt fund
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/worl ... 557120.cms

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 01 Nov 2011 01:44

joshvajohn wrote: Israelis have right to protect themselves at all costs from the terrorists. Israelis have right to attack any countries if they are threatened by them. Israelis have got to defend themselves against all their surrounding enemies. but Israelis should remember that their country was formed with the help of British govt in 1947.

This is exactly what is happening today. Israel is protecting its citizens by occupying and controlling Palastinian territories.

Israelis remember that Israel was their native place (of course if we go into Old Testament even they too occupied it after massacring all local population, similar to United States of America - So there are no original claimants left) per their religious texts.

Since this is an issue between two populations that believe in textual scriptures the only way peace can come is by the stronger occupying the weaker. There is no peaceful solution unless we change the underlying religious scriptures of all three Abrahamic religions.

Perhaps that should be the focus of the peace mongers.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 01 Nov 2011 02:00

RamaY ji,
if we go back sufficiently in time - probably everyone will turn out to be immigrants and not bhumiputras. What is not usually mentioned is the fact that the modern Palestinians could themselves be immigrants - and possibly violent invaders into their place of current occupation- from further west in the Mediterranean isles. If it really happened so - then they themselves came as invaders from their island nations which were suffering geological calamities and being run over by proto-Greeks, in the middle-late bronze period in that area.

The Israeli -Canaanite/Levantine conflict then could be recast as an ancient one in which the highlanders [proto-Israelites] and in-landers were pushed back from the piedmont by aggressive marine cultures who knew how to control or dominate the sea and needed coastal enclaves to have a grip on trade.

How about going far back enough to have historical justifications of trauma and right to land!

joshvajohn · Post by **joshvajohn** » 01 Nov 2011 02:30

Biji
your statement is true about all are migrants in one way or the other! Even Biblically Abraham was not an Israelite rather he is a wandering armaenian. He is the father of both Isaac and Ismael.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 02 Nov 2011 00:12

http://mei.org.in/front/cms/publication ... hp?id=MzI2
India and the Arab Spring: Challenges and Opportunities
Africa and the Gulf. Peace and stability in the region are important for India.

The key Indian interests in the area are: the presence of 6 million strong Indian Diaspora in the region; security of energy supplies; trade worth $120 billion; Indian investments in the region. Indian expatriates spend billions of dollars in remittances to their families back home. The morale of Indian Diaspora will plummet if Indian nationals get involved in the violence in the region.India is also vulnerable to the evolving geopolitical situation in the area. The key elements are: the impact of oil on Indian economy; the increasing violence in the region; terrorism; religious fundamentalism; security of sea lanes of communication; sectarian rivalries in the region, the race between Iran and Saudi Arabia for regional dominance; and the impact of the regional turmoil on Israel – Palestinian conflict. Each of these factors will have to be incorporated in future Indian response.
In addition, India’s Middle East policy is greatly influenced by domestic factors which include the deep sympathy for the Palestinian cause; religious interaction between India and the Arab world.
The Indian stance to Arab Spring was governed by India’s national interests, which do not necessarily lie with the West. India’s response was balanced. The main reasons that guided India’s abstentions on Libyan and Syrian resolutions have been explained well by Indian representatives. India was opposed to interference in a situation when there was little clarity about the situation on the ground. The Indian representative noted, ‘The international community should give time and space for the Syrian Government to implement the far-reaching reform measures announced by them. We firmly believe that the actions of the international community should facilitate an engagement of the Syrian government and the opposition in a Syrian-led inclusive political process and not complicate the situation by threats of sanctions, regime change, etc.’

In the Libyan case, India was concerned that the intervention was hasty. Its representative noted, ‘The resolution that the Council has adopted today authorizes far reaching measures under Chapter VII of the UN Charter with relatively little credible information on the situation on the ground in Libya. We also do not have clarity about details of enforcement measures, including who and with what assets will participate and how these measures will be exactly carried out. It is, of course, very important that there is full respect for sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity of Libya.’These were relevant concerns given the lack of clarity about the evolving situation and also in view of Indian national interests. India may have taken a cautious stance so far but this does not mean India’s approach will be static. As the ground realties change, India will also adjust its position. In particular, India will have to engage with the new forces which are on the rise but whose contours are not clear at the moment. India can also play an important role in the reconstruction and rehabilitation efforts on the region. In fact, Arab Spring may provide India with new opportunities to engage with the region with which it has deep ties.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 03 Nov 2011 02:44

Muslim Brotherhood taking over Middle East - expert

The Muslim Brotherhood in Libya?

Yes, of course. Abdul Jalil is from Muslim Brotherhood. So, I think that the problem is now what the West is going to do. What the West and when the West will realize what is done because in all these countries, in North Africa and it is Tunisia with the elections had, as a result, a big win of the Muslim Brotherhood. Of course, as in Tunisia the Muslim Brotherhood has won with 45% of the votes, in Egypt they are going to win with at least a double number percentage of votes and I’m sure that plus Constitutional Referendum almost 77% of votes will be for the reform of the Constitution.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 03 Nov 2011 03:48

My guess is that MB is being facilitated by West as the least worrisome of the Islamists. MB is AlQ in suits.

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 03 Nov 2011 07:01

Egypt to allow expats to vote.

According to a constitutional declaration issued by Egypt's military rulers, polls and referendums are held under full judicial supervision.

An administrative court ruled last month that Egyptian expatriates, deprived of the vote under Mubarak, will have the right to cast their ballots in the poll.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 03 Nov 2011 07:52

ramana wrote:My guess is that MB is being facilitated by West as the least worrisome of the Islamists. MB is AlQ in suits.

MB is the US manufactured ideology. Hence will be supported

abhischekcc · Post by **abhischekcc** » 03 Nov 2011 18:06

I thought that MB was created by the British in Egypt first. These guys have always been the loyal opposition for whichever dictator the west favoured at any given point of time.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 03 Nov 2011 19:28

Why should there be any worry about the "democratic" process turning up popular Muslim leaning forces to power? So "democracy" is not the real ideal then - it is good onlee as long as it keeps favoured groups/dynasties/dictators/authoritarians in power? Moreover, if all these dictators failed to affect the society towards "secularism" [isnt Islam moderate and tolerant of "secularism"? otherwise why do we protect it in India then! as Muslim populations grow in India, does this argument not imply that India too will need its own dictators to barely manage to keep some pretension of secularim - since as soon as the dictators topple, Muslim influence in society apparently turns agains "secular" trends!] - then are we to accept the principle, that it is okay to maintain unpopular regimes not supported by the majority of a society - simply by the power of the gun?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 03 Nov 2011 20:17

abhishekcc,
Home work find out where Syed Qutub got his training!

Where is the head slapping icon when you need it?

What this means is massa has decided to exercise the urban option and sink the rural or tribal option.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 03 Nov 2011 20:34

The Egyptian connection will lead to a subcontinental connection - and will ultimately always always lead up to the doorstep of one of the two fountainheads - both in current Indian territory, the Nadwat, and the Deoband. The ideological foundation in Egypt in the modern times, had significant borrowings from people produced in desi soil.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 05 Nov 2011 01:24

Regional Update - Nov 4th

This week has been particularly action packed with Israel testing a ballistic missile system, Turkey threatening to send its warships to escort aid ships to the port of Gaza, Syria - Arab League deals, UK stands ready to deploy its Trident equipped submarines in Arabian Gulf waters to support an allied mission to destroyIranian nuclear sites.

Syria

We continue where we left off from our 2 part series on the Syrian situation.

We are of the opinion that large number of alawite leaders (both businessmen and military) are of the view that it is now too late to save the system. However, the question they seem to be pondering is whether they will continue to have a role in a post Assad world? Will the wider public take it easy on them? Looking at Egypt, businessmen who were allied with the Mubarak regime are today being prosecuted and targeted, so we should probably conclude that Syrian public will not go easy on the alawite community. Therefore It is likely that several Alawites may fight right to the end and prolong the brutal attack on citizens. This will lead to further growing international pressure. Just yesterday the Chinese asked the Syrian government to resolve the issue.

Is the Syrian government agreement with the Arab League to implement reforms a sign of strength or weakness? Probably weakness. In our opinion, this is just to buy more time, on the ground not a lot seems to have changed as more deaths were reported yesterday and today.

The Alawite military can still rely on a vast number of loyal soldiers, therefore this is a recipe for civil war. So therefore efforts are underway to convince the army to conduct a coup in order to have an orderly transition of power preventing a civil war from taking place. Will this be successful? Maybe.

Keep in mind, that for Obama and Sarkozy elections are coming up. It is easier for them to show external success than to show domestic economic successes, so you will see Sarko and Obama more active with regards to Syria.

Iran

The international pressure on Iran seems to be increasing. If the IAEA and western/GCC intelligence reports are to be believed it appears that Iran is speeding up its nuclear activity. If this is not resolved diplomatically, war is the last option. Therefore, countries require more time to prepare for the eventual war.

The Gulf intelligence agencies have compiled an intelligence report titeled "The nuclearisation of Iran". This is meant to be issued prior to the GCC Defence ministers meeting in Riyadh sometime in November/December. According to the report, Iran has recently tested a neutron initiator, which is used to detonate anuclear bomb at the Fordo site. It also mentioned that Khamanei has taken full contol of the nuclear file, away from Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

The report also notes that North Korea recently sold Iran an MCNPX 2.6.0 computer program that simulates the neutron and photon flows in nuclear processes.A North Korean team of engineers were in Tehran to train defence ministry officials on the program.

There appears to be a lot of deception and psy-ops going on. First Britain confirmed that it will take part in any operation to support an allied mission to destroy Iranian nuclear sites by deploying its Trident equipped Submarines. The British subs were in the Arabian gulf a few years ago conducting manuevers with other allied forces.

Raising the nuclear issue about Syria's attempts to acquire nuclear capability was also we think, a means to attack Iran diplomatically and also keep the pressure on the Syrian regime. Transfer of US troops from Iraq to the Gulf is also due to the fact that there is an estimate that Iran will respond to the removal of the Assad regime by retaliating in the Gulf. This will be done via proxy groups such as Mahdi army in Iraq (the IRGC is busy professionalising the Mahdi Army and building it on the lines of Hezbollah), Hezbollah and others.

Israel Air Force planes participating in an aviation drill at Decimomannu air base, Italy, Oct. 2011.

Another interesting piece of news was the NATO exercise with the Israeli Air force, where F-16s travelled 1700km to bases in Italy, which was supposedly a dress rehearsal for an attack on Iran. Then also the leak of news to the media about PM Netanyahu convincing his cabinet to agree to military strikes on Iran. Our opinion is that this is nothing but strategic deception in order to maintain the pressure on Iran and divert its focus away from saving the Syrian regime. These exercises are also due to the fact that western alliance do not rule out some response by the Iranian regime to the removal of the Assad regime (their ally).

The decision for Erdogan to send Turkish Naval ships to escort aid ships to Gaza may also be strategic deception. Most people know that the Turkish Navy has no capability to take on Israeli navy, therefore there is a possibilitythat this serves as a cover for some other action.

------------------
Good news, Prince Salman is due to be Minister of Defence in KSA. He is seen as having good relations with India. He is a very influential individual in the family. He is now 3rd in Command looks like. Prince Salman visited Dilli to discuss nukes/mijjile coop after MMS visit. Spent considerable time in India before heading back.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 05 Nov 2011 07:41

Saudi Succession: Keeping it in the family

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 05 Nov 2011 22:09

News just in confirms what I said yesterday - Prince Sultan is confirmed as the new Minister of Defence in KSA.

------------------------
Re - Iran v West issue.
FYI, they will keep the war drum beats going, the plan is to collapse Iran from within in the long run - as long as naval armada's start moving in and out of the hormuz, iran will have to keep spenidng less on development/its people. But strikes on Iran will take place in the next 2 years as a last resort, but they all need to get prepared and ready for it - this takes time. Bushehr will be left alone. India needs to build its reserve capacity/underground caverns to have at least 30 day apacity. Right now its around 9 - 15 days max! Indian navy will have to deploy to secure oil and prevent blocking of the hormuz.

The next move appears to be sanctions on iranian oil, but Obama is a bit reluctant given the economic situation. KSA will pump from excess capacity when the war happens. The expectation is that India, Rus, PRC will continue dealing with Iran after the oil sanctions, so there is also a question of futility of oil sanctions with the obama administration.

Samudragupta · Post by **Samudragupta** » 05 Nov 2011 22:29

shyamd wrote:News just in confirms what I said yesterday - Prince Sultan is confirmed as the new Minister of Defence in KSA.

------------------------
Re - Iran v West issue.
FYI, they will keep the war drum beats going, the plan is to collapse Iran from within in the long run - as long as naval armada's start moving in and out of the hormuz, iran will have to keep spenidng less on development/its people. But strikes on Iran will take place in the next 2 years as a last resort, but they all need to get prepared and ready for it - this takes time. Bushehr will be left alone. India needs to build its reserve capacity/underground caverns to have at least 30 day apacity. Right now its around 9 - 15 days max! Indian navy will have to deploy to secure oil and prevent blocking of the hormuz.

The next move appears to be sanctions on iranian oil, but Obama is a bit reluctant given the economic situation. KSA will pump from excess capacity when the war happens. The expectation is that India, Rus, PRC will continue dealing with Iran after the oil sanctions, so there is also a question of futility of oil sanctions with the obama administration.

India must intervene if the strike happens....Iran is too important for India to let it fall to the West....At least IN must have a presence in the Bandar Abbas and route to Afghanistan....

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 06 Nov 2011 00:08

^^ the gap between the rulers and the people in their thoughts and expectation of life is increasing. India won't take sides at the same time and will maintain good relations with whoever is in power. The west and the gulf have a long term plan to remove the iranian regime - each nation has 2 choices cooperation or conflict. Iran or more specifically Khamanei chose conflict.

The ultra long term plan is to build pipelines through IRan and afghanistan in to Western PRC, join the TAPI going south to India. Ultimately they have a plan to stabilise AFghanistan (similar to Chechnya) as its a buffer state. Eventually they will make borders irrelevant between Iran and the Gulf - especially the 3 island issue forthe UAE. They will make the 3 islands a hub of economic activity with no one willig to break the mutually beneficial pact. This is the same thing that India tried/trying with Musharraf on the LoC. The hope is eventually when they have a regime in TSP/Iran they will solve the issue.

While the Iran war preparations go into full steam and Af-Pak war rages we will see some stability in our border with TSP - J&K will be more stable till 2015. Its in our interests to keep the Af-Pak war raging.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 06 Nov 2011 01:50

India Must Formulate Middle East Strategy
http://atlanticsentinel.com/2011/11/ind ... -strategy/

As the world is fine tuned to the future of the Middle East after the so called “Arab spring” toppled decade old dictatorships in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia this year, the rising power of South Asia is contemplating its Middle East policy.The problem with Indian strategic thinking is that it’s embroiled in ideological abstracts like nonalignment and forming rainbow coalitions across the global south with other BRICs.An active participation in multilateral organization is useful but it’s also important to focus on geostrategy from the perspective of national self-interest. This has been a lacking in India.In this context, India has to both consider the greater powers of the West and China to the east. Both had a solid geostrategy before they became international powers. Britain during the nineteenth century and the United States since the end of World War II have conducted foreign policy with a clear geopolitical understanding—especially in the Middle East.The very phrase “Middle East” was coined by the American strategist Alfred Thayer Mahan before there were ever dictators to be deposed there or oil supplies to be secured.The fact that an American “invented” the Middle East demonstrates how important the region is to the global power game. It provides a perfect buffer region between the land powers of Eurasia and the world’s major sea lanes. If the Middle East assumed significance in a century during which power was concentrated in the Atlantic area, one must recognize the implications for an Asian century in which the Indian Ocean is predicted to take center stage.This is why it’s crucial for India to formulate a convincing strategy for the Middle East that’s not confined to abstract principles.Moreover, if there is a cold war between China and the United States for spheres of influence in the twenty-first century, the vast oil resources of the Middle East will be more hotly contested. China has not actually started a “great game” there because it would rather the United States remain involved in their costly counterinsurgency campaigns—enabling China to do business in the region once the Americans are weakened

India’s position is peculiar in this regard. It has tried to appease the authoritarians of the region with its policy of nonalignment but failed. India, a majority Hindu country ever at odds with Muslims in Pakistan, won’t be perceived as a friend in the Arab world. It is in India’s interest therefore to perpetuate Washington’s paramountcy in the region and prevent Beijing from taking its place. Endorsing notions of a “responsibility to protect” to legitimize interventionism in the Middle East does not serve this interest

joshvajohn · Post by **joshvajohn** » 06 Nov 2011 03:39

Prem
I do not think the present Indian govt will take such article seriously.
the present regime in India is out of touch with people and out of touch with the world news. There are old advisors to the Indian government. They do not know what is going on. They do not wish to know. They believe in something and suddenly ask the Indian government to support Gaddaffi and other super leaders in Arabian nations who all supported Pakistan in terms of Kashmir issues. Even Qaddaffi (without his presence of mind) was the one to speak in UN openly agaisnst India. India desperately supported him until his end possibly because of the advise from China. the present government does all that against Indian interest internally and overseas.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 06 Nov 2011 07:27

The GOI appears to be completely unprepared both mentally and physically to act or even decide.The galaxy of corporate heads who openly have warned the MMS regime have added to the long list of security exoerts who have been warning the govt. of its dereliction of duty in combating the Sino-Paki threat.We now have the redrawing of the Middle Eastern/Muslim map of the world and the return off colonialism that began with the Iraq War.The race to secure mineral and petro assets of the globe,grabbing them from the people's of the region has been seen in Iraq and in Libya.To secure the despotic kingdoms and sheikdoms of the region,and to preserve Saudi hegemony over its Muslim neighbours like Iran,Iran and Syria are next on the hit list.Attacks on these two nations however will certainly usher in a conflict of a very different magnitude.There are undercurrents to get India to play a more active role in this interventionist western policy,some now openly coming out and saying that the "time has come" for an axis of the USN,IN and OZ Navy!
This hilarious proposal forgets totally the rank animosity of the ruling elite of the land of Oz and their racist leanings.We are now picking up part of the tab for the Afghan War as the west retreats from th field of battle,though our funding developmental aid is sound and opportune and training of Afghan forces in order given the anti-Indian machinationss of the Paki uniformed tribe.

As Shyam has said,it is past time to prepare for a long drawn out conflict in the Gulf region that will severely affect oil supplies.We need to immediately build up buffer stocks to last at least 6 months supplies in a series of UG deppots spread out avross the country preferably close to refining plants. Alternative supplies from non-ME sources like Venezuela,Russia,etc.,must be firmed up now before the baloon goes up.When it goes up,the country most affected will be China and how China will react to attempts to control its oil supplies will be not a very pleasant thought.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 06 Nov 2011 09:15

joshvajohn
AFAIK, a teeney weene bit, for the last few years , Saudis have started exerting undue influence in GOI/RULING/ELIte circle. MMS have been very weak on this front, and lack of vision by GOI is very clear .

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 06 Nov 2011 09:58

ShyamD, Have you come across this name?

Fathima Kulsum Zohar Godabari.

desi origins?

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 06 Nov 2011 10:10

Prem wrote:joshvajohn
AFAIK, a teeney weene bit, for the last few years , Saudis have started exerting undue influence in GOI/RULING/ELIte circle. MMS have been very weak on this front, and lack of vision by GOI is very clear .

spot on, Prem ji,

This (not a teeney weene bit!!) has always been there due to vote bank and behind the scene mullah politics in India. This had waned considerably during the BJP's rule but has come back again with redoubled vigor.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 06 Nov 2011 15:20

ramana wrote:ShyamD, Have you come across this name?

Fathima Kulsum Zohar Godabari.

desi origins?

Sounds a bit desi/paki/persian boss, especially if you spell fatima with a h after the t.

Never heard 'Godabari' surname before. Fatima - likely to be shi'ite.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 06 Nov 2011 16:16

could be a sunni name from hyderabad/telengana? the 'h' is commonly used in south india like shakti in n.india and shakthi in s.india and godabari==godavari ?

abhischekcc · Post by **abhischekcc** » 07 Nov 2011 00:59

ramana wrote:abhishekcc,
Home work find out where Syed Qutub got his training!

Where is the head slapping icon when you need it?

What this means is massa has decided to exercise the urban option and sink the rural or tribal option.

That is why I said 'I thought'! My knowledge of MB's history is what I read in popular press.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 07 Nov 2011 04:35

Large transfer of NATO air fleet in Izmir and missile batteries inthe eastern med.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 07 Nov 2011 04:59

It appears that we are being prepared for the inevitable attack against Iran just as a patient is prepared before a painful operation,anaesthetics et al.The die appears to have been cast as the next stage in the redrawing of the map of the Middle East/West Asia is about to take place with the attacks against Iran's military and N-facilities and an engineered civil war in Syria-remember how the US ambassador was orchestrating the Syrian "Opposition" and was chucked out?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... -Iran.html

Ehud Barak refuses to rule out military strike against Iran

Ehud Barak, the Israeli defence minister, refused to rule out military action against Iran yesterday, heightening expectations that his government is preparing to authorise an attack on Tehran's nuclear facilities.

Xcpt:

In an interview with the BBC, Mr Barak said that sanctions and international diplomacy had so far failed to deter Iran from seeking to build a nuclear bomb, a prospect that would, he warned, threaten the stability of the "whole world".

"We strongly believe that sanctions are effective or could be effective if they are ... paralysing enough, that diplomacy could work if enough unity could be synchronised between the major players, but that no option should be removed from the table," he told the Andrew Marr Show.

The minister's comments come after a week of increasingly insistent claims in the Israeli press that Mr Barak and Benjamin Netanyahu, his prime minister, are lobbying cabinet colleagues to support military strikes against Iran.

The two men, considered Israel's chief political hawks when it comes to Iran, are hoping that a report to be submitted by the UN's nuclear watchdog this week will provide justification for military action, observers and officials have suggested.

Experts from the International Atomic Energy Agency are expected to present the most compelling evidence yet that Iran is exploring ways to build a nuclear weapon, although European diplomats say the report will not amount to "a smoking gun".

Even so, the Israeli government will seize on its findings to urge the international community to take more decisive action.

The Netanyahu administration tasked Shimon Peres, the Israeli president, with mounting a diplomatic offensive over the weekend in the belief that his dovish credentials will make its case even more compelling.

In a series of interviews, Mr Peres warned that time was running out to prevent Iran from fulfilling its perceived nuclear ambitions and appeared to urge the international community to consider the military option.

"The possibility of a military attack against Iran is now closer to being applied than the application of a diplomatic option," he told the Israel Hayom newspaper.

.......But Israel is thought only to have a window of only a few weeks if it wants to launch military action before the onset of winter, when heavy cloud would hamper aircraft targeting systems, making an attack impracticable. Some military experts predict that if an attack does come it will take place either in the spring, or, more likely, next summer.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 07 Nov 2011 07:30

http://old.news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20111106 ... _paul_iran
Paul says friendship best way to deal with Iran

WASHINGTON – GOP presidential hopeful Ron Paul says "offering friendship" to Iran, not sanctions, would be a more fruitful to achieving peace with Tehran.The Texas congressman says fears about Iran's nuclear program have been "blown out of proportion." He says tough penalties are a mistake because, as he says was the case in Iraq, they only hurt the local population and still paved a path to war.When asked on "Fox News Sunday" what he would do to deter Iran's alleged nuclear ambitions, Paul said "maybe offering friendship to them."Paul's remarks put him at odds with both the Bush and Obama administrations; U.S. policy has relied heavily on sanctions and diplomacy to try to convince Tehran to abandon its atomic program. Iran says its nuclear program is peaceful.