West Asia News and Discussions

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Prem
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Prem »

Iran, India play strategic role in regional stability: Ahmadinejad
Tehran Times - ‎Nov 5, 2011‎
TEHRAN -- Through the use of new slogans and by taking advantage of NATO forces, the former colonialist states are attempting to dominate the world, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told Indian Parliament Speaker Meira Kumar during a meeting in ...
'Iran, India share similar views on regional issues' Tehran Times - ‎Nov 4, 2011‎
TEHRAN – Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani has said that Iran and India share similar views on regional issues, particularly the issue of Palestine. Larijani made the remarks during a press conference held after his meeting with Indian parliament ...
( Unfortunately Links is down)
Prem
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Prem »

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld ... 6373.story
U.S. backs away from sanctions on Iran central bank
The softening position illustrates how concern over the weak economy has hobbled the administration when it comes to combating what officials describe as Iran's efforts to attack U.S. interests in the Middle East and elsewhere.U.S. officials and foreign diplomats added that the likelihood that other governments would strongly resist such a step also helped push the central bank measure from consideration and diplomatic discussion.
The pivot to more limited tactics has surprised some other governments that expected bold action after the administration warned that it would not tolerate Iranian terrorist plots on American soil. Some diplomats said it may be difficult for U.S. officials to persuade other governments to scale back their business with Iran when the United States was being so reticent."The others are asking: 'Why should we take on the Iranians, when the U.S. isn't doing so much?' " one diplomat said.Rather than pursue sanctions against Iran's central bank, U.S. officials now say they will seek to persuade some of Tehran's key trading partners — including the Persian Gulf states, South Korea and Japan — to join the U.S. in enforcing existing sanctions. The U.S. will also add a few more narrowly focused sanctions, they said.
ramana
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by ramana »

ShyamD, Its time to take a second look at the Arab Spring and what it means to the world? The policewoman slapping a fruit vendor in Tunisia has changed the Arab world and brought down tyrants and dictators. However it did not kill the ideology in the region.

Note that Western response is adhoc and guided by self interests: Suppression of dissidents in Bahrain and applauding them in Egypt. Intervening on their side in Libya and ignoring their oppression in Syria. All looks confusing unless we step back and see the whole picture.

Next except for Cyprus and Israel all of them are opposed to West (Christianity in reality) and are Islamist of one variety or the other. Just as Socialism is one variety of Communism.Fair elections throw up Islamist in suits (MB) or in robes(AlQ). The last century saw the fall of two totalitarian systems: Fascism and Communism. Will we see the fall of the last one standing this century: Islamism?

I think the issue is that Islamism is not being recognised for its totalitarian nature but is being confused with liberal ideas about freedom of religion.

If true Arab Spring blooms we will see death of Islamism in its founding regions and that would be good thing for democracy.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by ramana »

Also ShyamD While the southern shores of the Mediterranean Sea have heads of state being replaced, with some of them losing theirs, from the Arab Spring, the Northern shores are in same situation due to Euro debt crisis!

While pondering about Silvio Berlusconi's loss, think of it as poetic justice for the brutality with which Gaddafi was killed. The debt bomb will take out Sarkozy eventually.

All the countries that participated in the debt bubble from the 1980s are all being reset. A sort of gunfight at OK Corral is going on with credit instruments.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Agnimitra »

Al-Houthi Expansion Plan in Yemen Revealed
Several sources in Hajjah, a northern Yemeni governorate which sits directly on the northern Saudi borders, told the press that al-Houthis fighters, a Shia led rebellion, were increasingly expanding their area of control in the region as they had already overtaken several towns and villages in the province. They warned that despite a fierce resistance from the tribes of Kashir and Aahm, al-Houthis still managed to break through, overwhelming the tribal army in numbers and weapons.

Until recently, tribes in Hajjah were benefited greatly from the government' support as they were seen as a buffer against al-Houthis' territorial ambitions, especially since Hajjah offers not only an access to the sea but also the capital, Sana'a.

...

Furthermore, over the past few weeks, the Shia rebels have managed to take control over Kahlah al Sharaf district, which is believed to be further proof that al-Houthis are trying to create a direct link in between Sana'a and the Red Sea, in preparation of an attempted take -over.

If Hajjah was to be lost, it would the third Yemeni provinces to have gone under control of al-Houthis led rebellion on a few months, increasing exponentially the risk of the country sinking into utter chaos and Mayhem.


Sources in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia have said under cover of anonymity that they were watching the events with utmost interest since most of their southern borders ran through al-Houthis' controlled territories and that the group has be known in the past for attacking Saudi villages which they claim ownership over.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Agnimitra »

^^^

Image

Via Hajjah, the Houthis will gain access to the coast. They have previously already tried to take over the port of Midi during the 2009-2010 conflict, but this time it is different because Saleh has withdrawn all his forces into the capital to prepare for an assault of General Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar. Meanwhile the Houthis, who have defeated pro-Saleh tribes in Sa'dah in March and Sunni tribes and al-Qaeda forces in Jawf in October, have now defeated the pro-Saleh tribes in Hajjah. They already had some control there, but it seems they have broken through and now they have blocked the highway linking San'a to the sea.

Houthis have been amassing forces in Hajjah for a while now. That's why they so massively overwhelmed the pro-Saleh tribes numercally, but there are wider implications. It is believed that Houthi fighters are gathering there to prepare for an all out assault on Sana'a. If, while the Sunnis are fighting each other, the Houthis storm the city at the right moment, they may very well be succesfull in taking it.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by shyamd »

Ramana ji, I prepared a long answer while i was travelling but unfortunately i lost it. So here is a short summary of what I said

- this represents a change of cyclical change. There are multiple waves - some every 150 years, some short term. I think fall of communism was one, then obviously end of 2007 bull run was the end of one.

- US/EU supported Bah protests - they sanctioned Bah and still are sanctioning them.

-Anyone involved in the boom era - 2007 period is having a tough time now. Sarko was elected before, so people want something to blame wit regards to fall intheir living standards. Berlu, Sarko will go. Cameron, Obama may stay as they were elected post bull period. Obama was in the worst position.

- I had said earlier on this thread and via email tto you that hte islamists in Tunis will be pro-democratic because unkil negotiated with them even before the spring. This was confirmed in the speech by Asst Sec Andrew Shapiro - State Dept - politico/mil relations walla last week. Egypt - no indications that SCAF will let go of power - they are telling the US this too. I think Egypt will sttle for TSP type situation.

- Wrt Syria, I had said in latest blog post that it is easier for Sarko and Obama to get external victories than internal success. The economy is screwed, nothing they can do about it. Libya - France, UK took the lead with limited US support. Syria - once again France will take the lead with Turkish, US support. OBL, Awlaki etc.

- I agree the US is setting up islamism for a fall. why? Arthashasthra says economy is everything for the king to remain in power. Next 5 years no growth is expected. People wont see much changes. Jump to the next party before any major changes? Tunis heavily reliant on EU trade. Egypt = mainly tourism.

- Indian ambassador in DC seems to be toeing Assad's line that Syria is fighting armed groups - per senator in todays hearing on syria.
ramana
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by ramana »

Take your time and recreate it. Thanks for the short answer.

Meantime:
Libya Heading Towards Islamism

by Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi
The American Spectator
November 9, 2011

http://www.meforum.org/3093/libya-islamism
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Amid all the debate as to what lies in store for Libya, it is becoming increasingly apparent that Islamism will be the dominant political force in the country.

Indeed, this trend should already have been clear in the treatment of David Gerbi, a Libyan Jew residing in Italy who returned to his ancestral homeland in the summer to fight alongside the rebels against Gaddafi. Yet when he tried to rebuild and reopen the abandoned and desolate synagogue in Tripoli, he faced death threats, intimidation and protests, such that he was eventually deported. The National Transitional Council (NTC) dismissed this matter as one of no importance.

In this context, it is noteworthy that the treatment of Gerbi was in accordance with traditional Islamic law's views on the status of dhimmis (i.e. Jews or Christians), for dhimmis are not allowed to reconstruct their buildings of worship or build new synagogues and churches.

Linked to the point about Islamic law are the recent announcements of Mustafa Abdul-Jalil, the chairman and de facto president of the NTC, that Sharia will be the "basic source" of all law in Libya. Coming to specifics, Abdul-Jalil declared that a Gaddafi-era law that banned polygamy would be lifted, saying that it was "contrary to Sharia and must be stopped."

The NTC chairman is of course correct that Sharia traditionally permits polygamy, being rooted in Quran 4:3, which allows a man to take as many as four wives. While the verse exhorts a man who has more than one wife to "deal justly" with all of them, on traditional interpretations this does not mean treating them equally. Rather, as Ibn Kathir puts it, doing so is only "recommended," and even without equal treatment, "there is no harm on him."

Abdul-Jalil further declared the need for future bank regulations to comply with Sharia, claiming that "interest creates disease and hatred among people." One should also compare his statements on the role of Sharia with the draft Constitution for the Libyan opposition, as reported on in late August. As Andrew Bostom notes, the most striking feature is the opening (Part 1, Article 1), which affirms that "Islam is the religion of the state, and the principal source of legislation is Islamic jurisprudence (Sharia)."

The emphasis on the definite article before "principal source" is my own. It is an undeniably Islamist outlook. It must be contrasted with, for example, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's State of Law bloc, which only views Sharia as a source of legislation, and not necessarily the main one.

Assuming that Abdul-Jalil (who, with a Zabibah-marking on his forehead from performing the Muslim prayer ritual, certainly conveys an image of fervent devotion) is not necessarily sincere in his Islamist pronouncements is hardly reassuring, because then it follows that he feels a need to pander to a very powerful Islamist faction in the country.

In any event, the implications of the trend towards imposing Sharia are truly alarming, yet unfortunately, as Hussein Ibish says, "there is an intellectually and politically indefensible rush to recast the leading Arab Islamist parties as more moderate or pluralistic than they actually are… it' s simply foolish not to recognize that they remain in every meaningful sense radical and retain their totalitarian impulses. That they would like to broadly and severely restrict the rights of individuals, women and minorities in the name of religion is obvious."

Quite so, and while Ibish is also right that strong constitutional checks on the government's powers could force some Islamists to moderate their ideology, the signs for such a development in Libya are virtually non-existent. There is no discussion in NTC circles remotely along the lines of what Ibish advocates regarding the relationship between government and democracy.

More specifically, reports in Benghazi have pointed out the presence of one variant of the al Qaeda flag on top of Benghazi's courthouse (displaying the full Shahadah -- declaration of Islamic faith -- and a circle underneath against a black background). As Sherif Elhelwa further notes: "According to one Benghazi resident, Islamists driving brand-new SUVs and waving the black al Qaeda flag drive the city's streets at night shouting, 'Islamiya, Islamiya! No East, nor West,' a reference to previous worries that the country would be bifurcated between Gaddafi opponents in the east and the pro-Gaddafi elements in the west."

Some observers have been quick to dismiss Elhelwa's account as an isolated example, but John Rosenthal has drawn attention to more photos of demonstrators waving al Qaeda flags, bearing another familiar pattern of the first half of the Shahadah -- la illa ha ill allah ("there is no deity but God") -- and a circle underneath bearing the slogan "Allah, Rasul Mohammed" ("God, Prophet Mohammed"): compare with the flag of al-Shabaab, a Somali al Qaeda affiliate.

This development simply cannot be downplayed, and it is notable anyway how Elhelwa was threatened by a security guard for taking photos of the flag on the Benghazi courthouse. The guard reportedly said to her, "Whosoever speaks ill of this flag, we will cut off his tongue. I recommend that you don't publish these. You will bring trouble to yourself."

Readers may wonder why some of the flags have a black background, and some a white background. The answer is that the black flag represents al-Qa' ida' s war banner in the struggle against Dar al-Harb (consisting of non-Muslims or Muslim 'heretics' to be subdued under Islamic law), while the white flag symbolizes Dar al-Islam. In the case of the former, the demonstrators may have in mind targets outside Libya, or some of the rebel militias from Misrata and Zintan who have grown alarmed at the Islamist presence in the west of the country -- particularly in Tripoli -- and have thus formed a coalition to try to compete with the Islamists for influence, vying for control of the capital' s harbor and airports.

Meanwhile, outside the headquarters of the NTC, hundreds of Libyan Islamists, who had of course aided the effort to overthrow Gaddafi, have held protests calling on the NTC to pressure Baghdad into halting the execution of Libyan foreign fighters imprisoned in the country.

These insurgents, fighting for al Qaeda in Iraq, have been responsible for many of the most brutal attacks on Iraqi civilians since 2003. In fact, one of the militants responsible for the horrific assault on the Syriac Catholic Our Lady of Salvation Church in Baghdad last year -- an attack that killed dozens of worshippers (the anniversary was commemorated just last week) -- was Libyan. Oh, how cruel the Iraqis are to mistreat those noble Libyan jihadists!

The emerging picture is therefore clearly one of a strong (pan)-Islamist influence at the leadership level and on the ground, especially in Benghazi and the surrounding eastern areas where the revolt against Gaddafi first began.

Not only could this development pose a security threat to the outside world, but there is also good reason to be concerned in particular for the Libyan Berber minority, which is eager to assert its civil and cultural rights after decades of repression, came out in support of Gerbi's efforts to renovate the abandoned Tripoli synagogue, and has clashed with Arab tribesmen around Tripoli. The Algerian and Sudanese experiences show that Islamists in the Middle East and North Africa do not look kindly on non-Arab minorities who try to assert their own identity and culture.

Thus, while Gaddafi loyalists of the powerful Warfalla tribe vow revenge and localized militias continue to fight each other, expect internal conflict to be a feature of the Libyan landscape for quite some time as well.

Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi is a student at Brasenose College, Oxford University, and an intern at the Middle East Forum.
Interesting article above. Something we predicted.
devesh
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by devesh »

shyamd ji,
I don't think the US is "setting up" Islamists for a fall. IMO, they are simply focusing on their short term material gains. resource extraction is the need of the hour. I don't think they have any plans to screw the Islamists. as long as the Islamist play the usual games and accommodate "West", West will get along just fine.

the "fall" is something that Islamists will set up for themselves. nobody can do that. only they can do it to themselves.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by shyamd »

devesh wrote:shyamd ji,
I don't think the US is "setting up" Islamists for a fall. IMO, they are simply focusing on their short term material gains. resource extraction is the need of the hour. I don't think they have any plans to screw the Islamists. as long as the Islamist play the usual games and accommodate "West", West will get along just fine.

the "fall" is something that Islamists will set up for themselves. nobody can do that. only they can do it to themselves.
True for perhaps Libya - they are trying to grow their business and make it another KSA. Tunisia and Egypt (Hosni mubarak has defended US interests for a long time) dont have much to offer - so even if islamists come to power there they will fall off the west decides not to trade with them. BO wants a democracy with moderate islamism in the region to fit in with the trends - it improves US image. This has pissed a lot of people off. But at the same time, think of the EIC, they needed to secure the coast lines. Can you imagine piracy in the med? US oil shipments do occur through this route, so a stable North Africa is in their interests too.

EU needs a stable north africa - its essential for their mainland security too.

In Libya, the west is trying to tie down the islamist movements (albeit with limited success at the moment, lots of backroom talks going on), reality is that the leader that comes to power there has to be accommodative of the islamists - simply because the islamists do have a sizeable militia and no one wants another civil war there. I think the west will exert enough diplomatic pressure to reach an amicable solution.

Their constitution will be based on Shariah, does that make them islamist as this is what they believe in. They'll have something similar to maybe the GCC.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Agnimitra »

As Israeli rhetoric against Iran rises, warning sparks are beginning to fly:
Gaza militants hit southern Israel with rockets, Israeli war jets retaliate
GAZA (Xinhua) -- Palestinian militants fired on Wednesday two homemade rockets from the Gaza Strip, which landed on southern Israel, no injuries reported, according to Israeli Radio.

The radio quoted Israeli police officials as saying that the two projectiles hit the area of Sha'ar Hanegev in western Negev area in southern Israel, adding that no injuries or damages were reported.

No one claimed responsibility for the two projectiles attack on Wednesday, while Israeli radio reported that another rocket was fired on Tuesday night from the coastal enclave ruled by Islamic Hamas movement, with no reported injuries yet.

On Tuesday night, medical sources said that a Palestinian civilian was moderately injured after Israeli war jets struck overnight a training post belongs to Gaza militants north of the southern Gaza Strip city of Khan Younis.

Over the past couple of weeks, the Gaza Strip has been witnessing a tit-for-tat attacks, where at least 15 Palestinians and one Israel were killed as militants intensively fired long- range Russian-made Grad rockets and Israel retaliated.

However, Gaza militant groups and Egyptian sources had said that a ceasefire, mediated by Egypt was reached between the two sides. But Israeli officials denied that a ceasefire was reached with Gaza militant groups.

Meanwhile, medical Palestinian sources said a 22-year-old Palestinian was killed in an underground tunnel's cave-in underneath the borders between Gaza Strip and Egypt.

Gaza right groups said in an official report that around 200 local Palestinian workers had been killed in the tunnels, either in cave-in or electric shocks since Israel had imposed a tight blockade on the Gaza Strip in 2007.

The Palestinians dug hundreds of tunnels to bring their needs of goods and products that Israel was not allowing to go through crossings on the borders with the Gaza Strip.

However, the tunnels' business had declined after Israel eased the blockade in early June 2010 following its naval commandos attack on the Gaza-bound aid flotilla, when nine Turkish activists were killed.

After Hamas released the Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit in October for 477 Palestinian male and female prisoners, the Islamic movement called on Israel to immediately lift the blockade.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Agnimitra »

If true, this confirms what I've been hearing from some Iranian sources about the Kurdish question: that Iran and Syria will now use the PKK against Turkey. Assad is prepared to relinquish control over Syrian Kurdistan, and Iran always was the least threatened by Kurdish nationalism anyway.

Assad to play ‘Kurdish card against Turkey, report says
Syria is looking to destabilize Turkey by providing greater autonomy to the Arab republic’s Kurdish population in the wake of Ankara’s demands that Damascus heed the demands of the country’s opposition, French daily Le Figaro has reported.

The Bashar al-Assad government has begun to support the Kurdish people living in Syria’s north, which is reportedly home to 1.9 million Kurds, in an attempt to pose a threat to Turkey in its fight against the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), daily Hürriyet quoted the daily as saying yesterday.

Assad has taken advantage of the current crisis in the country to establish a “Kurdish autonomous region” in Syria in the event that he falls from power in a similar fashion to Col. Moammar Gadhafi in Libya.

The president has been preparing the ground for a Kurdish autonomous regional administration by opening Kurdish schools in the country’s north, reported Le Figaro, adding that the language of instruction was Kurdish and that the Kurdish anthem was sung every day.

The daily also claimed that Assad permitted Kurdish politician Muhammad Salih Muslim, the head of the Democratic Union Party (PYD), which is seen as a PKK affiliate, to return to Syria as a message to Turkey. Muslim was in exile in Iraq until the protests against Assad began in Syria earlier this year.

The PYD is reportedly organizing local elections in the north, the daily said.

The newspaper said accepting the Kurdish politician into Syria must be seen as an action to “punish [Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip] Erdoğan for harshly objecting to Syria’s crackdown on its dissidents.”

“It is no coincidence that Muslim has been elected as the deputy head of the Democratic Change Committee Coordination, which was founded by the Syrian regime, shortly after returning from exile,” said the daily. “The PYD is staying away from the Syrian National Council [SNC] which was founded in Istanbul because it believes that the SNC is backed by Western powers and is against the PKK.”

The assassination of Mashaal Tammo on Oct. 7, a Kurdish opposition leader in Syria, was also a message to Syrian Kurds that a “good Kurd” was one supported by the regime, according to Le Figaro.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Agnimitra »

Here are more currents over the past few months indicating Kurdish politics vis a vis Syria and Turkey:

Syrian Kurdish Parties Boycott Syrian Opposition Conference in Antalya, Turkey
In an article published in Asharq al-Awsat, a group comprised of 12 Kurdish political parties in Syria (National Movement of Kurdish Parties in Syria) announced that they intend to boycott the opposition summit. The group stated that 'any such meeting held in Turkey can only be a detriment to the Kurds in Syria, because Turkey is against the aspirations of the Kurds, not just with regards to northern Kurdistan, but in all four parts of Kurdistan, including the Kurdish region of Syria.'

Kurdish Leftist Party representative Saleh Kado echoed that concern saying that Turkey 'has negative attitudes towards the Kurdish issue in general' and that Ankara needs to 'first resolve the issue of 20 million Kurds living within their territory before seeking to bring together the Kurdish Syrian parties [in Turkey] to come to an agreement on a unified project with regards how to deal with the current events [in Syria].'

Kado stressed that 'we, the Kurds in Syria, do not trust Turkey or its policies, and that is why we have decided to boycott the summit.' Kado also said part of the reason for the boycott was the attendance of the Muslim Brotherhood.

But other reasons have also surfaced. Two weeks ago the National Movement of Kurdish Parties in Syria announced its own plan to resolve the current crisis in Syria. The Kurdish initiative, which outlined a comprehensive plan for democratic change and fundamental reform at all levels, was largely ignored by non-Kurdish groups.

Abdul Baqi Youssef, a leading member of the Kurdish Yekîtî Party in Syria, told AKNews that they do not know who supports this conference or what its goals are. Nor, he said, did the conference organisers make any contact with the Kurdish Movement during the preparations for the conference.

[...]

Kurds are not the only ones sceptical of the conference. Ribal al-Assad, the Director of the Organisation for Democracy and Freedom in Syria and cousin of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, has criticised some of the 'Syrian opposition' involved in the proposed meeting for not being genuine representatives of the Syrian people and called for the 'evil agenda' of the conference to be 'exposed to the international community.' He says that '[a]ny meeting of the Syrian opposition must include a broad coalition of groups that genuinely believe in freedom, democracy, and religious pluralism.'
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Agnimitra »

Mashaal Tammo, one of the few Syrian Kurdish leaders to have openly called for the overthrow of President Bashar Assad, has been assassinated recently.

It looks like Assad is trying to use promises of Kurdish autonomy to keep the opposition divided, but is ruthless if cornered.

Syria's Kurds: are they about to join the uprising against Assad?
The day of the funeral, after going to see Tammo's body at the morgue, Ose joined tens of thousands of people ? as many as 100,000, she says, though most observers put the figure at 50,000 ? in the streets of Qamishli. It was, by any count, the largest protest in the northeast since the beginning of the popular uprising against the Assad regime. It too ended in bloodshed, when Syrian security forces began to spray the mourners with gunfire, killing at least two people.

Although protests have been taking place in the north since the early spring, they now show signs of escalating, observers say. (Since Tammo's funeral, they have continued every day, one activist told me.) According to Henri Barkey, a Lehigh University professor and former State Department official, the fresh wave of demonstrations may well mark the Syrian Kurds' long-awaited entry into the popular revolt against Assad. "After Tammo's murder, [the Kurds] are now a party to the conflict," says Barkey. As he sees it, "increased mobilization" in the Kurdish northeast, one of the poorest and least developed regions of Syria, appears to be imminent.

Of course, were Syria's Kurds to rise en masse, the numbers of protesters would be much higher, acknowledges Ose. (Syria is home to 2 million Kurds ? about 10% of its population.) What stands in the way, she says, is the disconnect between a number of local political parties and the people on the street, particularly young Kurds. "The young people understand the responsibility they have. They understand that the Syrian revolution needs their help," she says. "The normal people support. They have joined ... but the parties haven't made up their mind."

Earlier this year, the Syrian government managed to drive a wedge between the parties, promising to grant citizenship rights to 300,000 stateless Kurds descended from families who escaped Turkey after a series of brutally suppressed Kurdish uprisings. Banking on these and future concessions, a number of Kurdish groups chose to remain on the sidelines rather than join the popular uprising against Assad. A telling sign came in the wake of Tammo's release in June after more than three years in prison. According to a source familiar with the details of the event, when Tammo reiterated his support for the anti-Assad revolution at a reception held in his honor, several Kurdish leaders left the room in protest.

.....
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Agnimitra »

If Assad falls, Iran will loose all it's influence with Syria. But right now it doesn't look like there is anyone which can actually depose or replace him. Unless a deal can be struck in which he steps down and the same regime just stays in power, in which case Iran will retain some influence there. anyway this form of change hasn't stopped protests in Egypt and Tunisia either.

There is no Syrian faction with anywhere near the power needed to depose Assad. The only way he can be deposed is through a foreign intervention, but in this case even a no-fly zone won't do any good for the West since the Syrian insurgents do not control territory and cannot fight a conventional war.

So as long as Turkey is kept busy, or put under enough pressure to back down, there is nothing for him to fear. This is what Iran is playing it right now. And using the PKK to keep Turkey at bay is one of the main tactics.

X-posting from Turkey thread:
Breaking news:
Turkey: Gunman hijacks ferry with 17 passengers
ANKARA, Turkey (AP) — A lone hijacker claiming to have a bomb on Friday hijacked a ferry off the western port city of Izmit with 17 passengers on board, an official said.

Ibrahim Karaosmanoglu, mayor for Izmit, told NTV television that the man claimed that there were four other hijackers on board the Kartepe ferry. But the mayor said crew told him the hijacker was alone.

There was no information on his identify or his motive. But a local newspaper, Gercek Kocaeli, said without citing sources, that the hijacker was believed to be a member of the Kurdish rebel organization, the Kurdistan Workers' Party or PKK, which is fighting for autonomy in the country's Kurdish-dominated southeast.

Karaosmanoglu said the man was demanding to speak to the media...
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by shyamd »

Carl ji - keep an eye out on tomorrow's arab league meeting. Expect Turkey to announce a cordone sanitaire. Today one of the opposition groups announced it will create a buffer zone to protect civilians in homs. The Assad regime is busy plugging the smuggler routes. But alas the borders are too big to be protected.

I think back room talks have failed with the Alawite colonels and they want to go for an armed conflict as last resort.

There is talk of Iran having the untested maal ready and mated which was left out of the IAEA report. Iran as a last ditch effort may create a crisis in the gulf to save Assad - so everyone is really watching closely.

Ramana, SS , Gagan ji you have mail
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by devesh »

is it possible India is/has/will be helping/helped Iran with maal? does India even have a carrot in this game? some gyaan is required on this angle. what are the consequences of Iran maal issues for Indian subcontinent?
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by ramana »

Yes. Got the mail Just think of TSP as a parsite or goloum who needs a protector. So thats what Russia is doing.

UK->US->PRC->Russia that is the pattern

When ever a weak group is under stress it gets befriended to protect it from its own stronger factions.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by svinayak »

TSP is a rentier state which needs a host on which it can be parasite.

When it got threatened by US military it was thrown as a football loosing the support of its powerful ally.
It has to seek another host to feed on and it is going under the protection of Russia the Big Bear.

PRC is exhausted by the tantrums and will only do so much. It is worried about overstreach in Tibet and POK and it will have consequences.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by devesh »

it's full circle now. under Great Game, it was Britain's umbrella. now, the the other original Great Game contender, Russia, is the protector. will this mean, India and Russia no more in tango?
ramana
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by ramana »

No. Could be last tango for the football.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by shyamd »

Thats it now. No more BS. Back room stuff appears to be on the slide straight down. Armed forces are getting ready to roll. You'll see more alawite's jump ship. The man leading the Free Syrian army is an alawite. But there are massive differences in the opposition group. They are not united.

Feltman has asked AL to take the lead. Its going to go to the UNSC in weeks. PRC have signalled that they want Syria to commit to reforms. Oman, Yemen and Lebanon and a few others today disagreed with the AL plan to suspend Syria - Omani FM who chaired the syria group flew straight back to Muscat. Suspension paves way to go to UNSC in a few weeks.

'15,000 strong' army gathers to take on Syria
An insurgent army which claims to be up to 15,000 strong is being coordinated from Turkey to take on President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, which risks plunging the region into open warfare.
We should draw lessons from this.

Iraq is next - but luckily Maliki knows this and will cut the deal with US - but I think this won't suffice. Last will be Iran. Basically the hints I am being dropped is that no one wants war. They will collapse Iran from within - i.e. another libya probably in 2 years (this is my estimate). Next summer you will see action in Iraq I feel and it'll go back to something like a military council compromised of sunni's with token shia representation... Pump the $$ in. This is why Iran wanted to fence the border with Pak.

Long term, gulf knows that the advantage lies with Iran and Iraq as they have the oil and the water, numerical superiority. Natural advantages. So they'll try and secure it for long now.

4 US drones are now deployed in Southern Turkey - as confirmed earlier.

Update - I think the reason why Israel supported removal of Assad regime is because all this is in support of Arab League proposal. Source says they will disarm Hezbollah (guaranteeing Israeli security in the lebanese side) and make it a political entity, I think in exchange for Golan with Syria so that they have a good start to relations with Syria and in a way that will guarantee security of Israel - we know we were close to an agreement that was acceptable to all sides in a way that guaranteed Israeli security recently with ASsad. So they save face for Free Syria and Hezbollah. Prince Turki al Faisal said something quite interesting - the days of throwing the israeli's into the sea is over ( source said since they acquired Nukes, no arab country wants to go to war with israel), and that the only way is now is to achieve an amicable solution via diplomacy..
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Agnimitra »

Iran Arrests Two Kuwaiti Spies
TEHRAN (FNA)- Iranian officials announced on Tuesday that they have arrested two Kuwaiti citizens on spying charges.

Governor of the Southwestern City of Abadan Bahram Ilkhas-zadeh told FNA that two Kuwaiti nationals have been arrested in his city on spying charges.

"These two Kuwaiti nationals were fully equipped with spying devices," he said, and added that the two have been arrested by the Iranian intelligence ministry forces in Abadan.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by devesh »

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 49624.html

Hezbollah Waits and Prepares
On a recent Saturday afternoon, a radar operated by French United Nations peacekeepers picked up a pilotless Israeli reconnaissance drone crossing into south Lebanon. It was given no more attention than any of the dozens of other surveillance missions flown by the Israelis in Lebanese airspace each month.

But when the drone passed above Wadi Hojeir, a yawning valley with steep, brush-covered slopes, it abruptly vanished from the radar screen. The startled peacekeepers contacted the Lebanese army, and a search of the rugged valley was conducted in the early-evening gloom. Nothing was found.

No one can recall the last time that an Israeli drone malfunctioned over Lebanon and crashed, and there were no reports of antiaircraft fire. The Israelis have said nothing. Neither has Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group and arch foe of Israel. The peacekeeping force is now abuzz with speculation that Hezbollah may have found a way of electronically disabling drones.

It is food for thought as tensions escalate once more between the West and Iran, Hezbollah's ideological patron, over the Islamic Republic's nuclear ambitions. A report by the International Atomic Energy Agency released last week claimed that Iran has been engaged in "activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device." It was the IAEA's toughest report yet on Iran, and it was preceded by a flurry of articles in the Israeli press saying that the Israeli government was seriously considering a strike against Iran's nuclear facilities.

Iran has delivered its own warnings. Brig. Gen. Masoud Jazayeri, the deputy chief of the country's armed forces, was quoted saying that "the smallest action by Israel [against Iran] and we will see its destruction." He added that plans for retaliation were already in place.

Many analysts believe that those plans could include directing Hezbollah to unleash its military might against Israel, pummeling it with thousands of long-range rockets, placing the Jewish state's heartland on the frontline for the first time since 1948.

Hezbollah and Israel last came to blows in July 2006, when the Lebanese militants fought the Israeli army to a surprise standstill in the valleys and hills of south Lebanon. Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah's charismatic leader, proclaimed a "divine victory" against Israel, but since then he has been careful not to provoke another round of fighting.

But the quiet has not stopped the two sides from making feverish preparations for another encounter, one that neither Hezbollah nor Israel wants but that both believe is probably inevitable.

The rate of recruitment into Hezbollah's ranks has soared. New recruits are bused to secret training camps in the Bekaa Valley, where they endure lengthy marches over the craggy limestone mountains carrying backpacks weighed down with rocks. They learn fieldcraft and weapons handling, and some go on to receive advanced training in Iran. The military instruction is interspersed with religious and cultural lessons, teaching them the importance of jihad, martyrdom and obedience to Hezbollah's religious figurehead, currently embodied by Ayatollah Ali Khameini, the supreme leader of Iran.

Hezbollah never divulges details of its ever-improving military capabilities, but reports claim that the organization has amassed as many as 50,000 rockets, including guided missiles that can strike targets in Tel Aviv. Hezbollah fighters have repeatedly hinted that they are being trained to slip across the border into Israel in the next war, a development to which Sheikh Nasrallah himself referred for the first time in a speech earlier this year.

Still, even as it has evolved into the most formidable nonstate military force in the world, Hezbollah faces its greatest array of challenges since emerging in the early 1980s.

It is in the spotlight of an international tribunal based in the Netherlands which has indicted four party members for their alleged role in the 2005 assassination of Rafik Hariri, an iconic Lebanese statesman. Hezbollah has denied any involvement in the killing of Mr. Hariri by a truck bomb.

Of far greater consequence for the group is the bloody upheaval in Syria, where protests against the regime of President Bashar al-Assad have left some 3,500 dead since mid-March, according to the U.N. For Hezbollah and Iran, the collapse of the Assad regime would upset the strategic balance in the Middle East, rupturing an alliance between Damascus and Tehran that has endured for 30 years and only grown stronger in the past decade under the presidency of Mr. Assad.

Syria is an important conduit for the transfer of arms to Hezbollah, but more crucially it is Iran's only solid ally in the Arab world, granting Tehran an influential toehold on Israel's northern border and providing strategic depth for Hezbollah.

Hezbollah's repeated declarations of support for Mr. Assad have eroded the party's popularity not only among the majority Sunnis in Syria, who make up the bulk of the opposition, but also more generally in the Arab world as the regional "cold war" intensifies between Shiite Iran and mainly Sunni Arab states, led by Saudi Arabia.

Sheikh Louay Zouabi, a Syrian Salafist cleric who was in Lebanon recently to drum up support for the opposition, listed Iran followed by Hezbollah as his two main enemies. The Assad regime came in third place. "Assad is third because it is natural for him to want to kill me because I am trying to overthrow him," he said. "But why do Iran and Hezbollah want me dead? What have I done to them?"

Hezbollah's popularity in Lebanon has declined since the heady days of the 1990s, when the Lebanese, regardless of sect, broadly backed Hezbollah's resistance campaign against Israel's occupation of south Lebanon. The Israelis left 11 years ago, but Hezbollah refused to disarm, and today the fate of its weapons lies at the heart of Lebanon's gaping political divide. Hezbollah insists that its robust military wing serves as a defense for Lebanon against possible Israeli aggression.

"Israel will not wage a new war against Lebanon—not because of its nobility, ethics, or commitments to international resolutions, but rather because it cannot guarantee its success," Mohammed Raad, the head of Hezbollah's parliamentary bloc, said recently.

But skeptics point to Hezbollah's ties to Iran and accuse it of serving the deterrent needs of Tehran rather than the defensive interests of Lebanon.

The dilemma for Hezbollah is that launching a war against Israel in response to an attack on Iran will reap massive destruction on Lebanon and on Hezbollah's core Shiite constituency—all for the sake of defending the nuclear ambitions of a country lying 650 miles to the east.

Hezbollah officials remain coy on the organization's likely reaction to an attack on Iran. Much would depend on the scale of the strike and the political situation in the Middle East. Sheikh Nasrallah recently said that neither the U.S. nor Israel is in a position to launch a fresh war in the Middle East, describing media speculation about a possible attack on Iran as "intimidation."

Meanwhile, Hezbollah's cadres concentrate on their relentless training and military planning, with a single-minded focus on the next conflict with Israel.

"Let them attack Iran. It will be great," said a young, stocky Hezbollah fighter named Khodr. "It will mean that Israel is finished."

—Mr. Blanford is a Beirut-based correspondent. His new book is "Warriors of God: Inside Hezbollah's Thirty-Year Struggle Against Israel."

when Palestine becomes reality, the nightmare will begin for the Jewish state. it will become a launching pad for militarily neutralizing Israel, and eventually, wiping it off the map. the Arabs need to create a distraction for their people. things are converging in that direction.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by devesh »

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articl ... 12133.html
Saudi sources provided an unofficial summary of the defense buildup. The army will add 125,000 to its estimated current force of 150,000; the national guard will grow by 125,000 from an estimated 100,000; the navy will spend more than $30 billion buying new ships and sea-skimming missiles; the air force will add 450 to 500 planes; and the Ministry of Interior is boosting its police and special forces by about 60,000. The Saudis are also developing their own version of the U.S. Joint Special Operations Command.

The doubling of ground forces is partly a domestic employment project, but it's also a signal of Saudi confidence.

The Saudi shopping list is a bonanza for U.S. and European arms merchants. That's especially true of the air force procurement, with the Saudis planning to buy 72 "Eurofighters" from EADS, and 84 new F-15s from Boeing. The rationale is containing Iran, whose nuclear ambitions the Saudis strongly oppose. But Riyadh has an instant deterrent ready, too, in the form of the Pakistani nuclear arsenal that the Saudis are widely believed to have helped finance.

Big weapons purchases have been a Saudi penchant for decades. More interesting, in some ways, is their quiet effort to provide support to friendly regimes to keep the region from blowing itself up in this period of instability. The Saudis have budgeted $4 billion this year to help Egypt, $1.4 billion for Jordan, and $500 million annually over the next decade for Bahrain and Oman. They will doubtless pump money, as well, to Syria, Yemen and Lebanon once the smoke clears in those volatile countries.

"In outlays, we've budgeted $15 billion a year just to keep the peace," says one Saudi source, adding up the economic assistance to Arab neighbors. But that's hardly a stretch for a country that, by year-end, will have about $650 billion in foreign reserves.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by ramana »

Bruce Beuno De Mesquita on Zakaria's GPS show

...
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BRUCE BUENO DE MESQUITA, AUTHOR, "THE DICTATOR'S HANDBOOK: We won't be surprised Russia's going to continue to deteriorate and get worse. We might be surprised that over the next couple of years it is pretty likely that Saudi Arabia will liberalize.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ZAKARIA: 2011 has been a particularly bad year for dictators, but who could have ever predicted it?

Well, my next guest has a pretty good track record of saying when a particular dictator's power will wax or wane, when another might lose his job or his head. He uses game theory for most of it.

He is Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, an NYU professor and the author of "The Dictator's Handbook." Welcome.

BUENO DE MESQUITA: It's a pleasure to be here.

ZAKARIA: So I want to give people - rather than getting into the theory of game theory, I want to give people a sense of how you use it to predict outcomes. And let's start with something very simple. You note that in dictatorships, the roads then to be straight, in democracies they tend to be kind of curvy and windy and complex. Why?

BUENO DE MESQUITA: Well, if you're running a dictatorship, you don't really have to worry about the welfare or the property rights of the ordinary citizen. Only the people who keep you in power, a very small group, matter. So you can afford to invoke eminent domain whenever you feel like it.

In a democracy, you'd be out of your job if you try to do that.

ZAKARIA: So - so in a dictatorship you just go the straightest path possible and connect the two places, and in a democracy you worry about this town here, this village there, this settlement -

BUENO DE MESQUITA: Precisely. In fact, the first time I went to Beijing they were still building the highway and I was shocked to discover, as we were driving into the city from the airport, we literally drove through a farmer's back yard. That was the highway. The fact that his farm was there just didn't matter to anybody other than presumably himself.

ZAKARIA: You predicted last year that Ahmadinejad, the president of Iran's, power would start waning. And, at least on first appearances, that does appear to be what's happening. He's been challenged by the supreme leader in Iran, he's been challenged by the Revolutionary Guard. Why did you make that prediction?

BUENO DE MESQUITA: Well, my modeling indicated that he was trying to carve out an independent base of power. That's, of course, a threat to the people on top, and that meant that inevitably he would be clashing with Khomeini, with Jafari of the Revolutionary Guard. They've got a lot more clout than he has, so that was likely to be a thorn in his side more than he in theirs.

ZAKARIA: He'll lose that power struggle, you think?

BUENO DE MESQUITA: Yes, he'll lose that power struggle. But, interestingly, I think so will Khomeini in the next - he's already on the way down - in the next couple of years. It seems to me, and indeed I - I predicted in February of 2009, that by the beginning of 2011, Jafari would be the dominant, real power in Iran, and that Khomeini would be increasingly more show and less real authority, and that's going to continue.

ZAKARIA: So what you see happening in Iran is effectively a decline of power based on religious authority of the clergy and a rise of power based on military authority?

BUENO DE MESQUITA: That's right. And that makes me mildly optimistic that over the next several years Iran is going to become a much more pragmatic government.

ZAKARIA: And presumably even in nuclear negotiations, these guys are more likely to be rational, deterrable, practical?

BUENO DE MESQUITA: Absolutely. Again, my view on - on the nuclear side is that what is in the interests of the Iranian leadership and what they perceive to be in their interest is to develop a weapons-grade fuel but not to make a weapon. That is, to demonstrate that they would know how, that they have the technology.

That gets them all the political kudos in the - in the region that they're looking for without the big political and military risks associated with actually assembling a bomb. And Jafari surely understands that.

I think Khomeini understands it, as well. Maybe he's been compelled to understand it.

ZAKARIA: What about Libya? Why did Moammar Gadhafi last so long? Forty-two years.

BUENO DE MESQUITA: Well, I'm going to turn that question on its head. Why did he fail to last longer? He obviously had a very good run. He made, from "The Dictator's Handbook" perspective, terrible mistakes in the last few years. He was interested in currying favor with the West, and, in doing that, he started to diminish the amount that he was torturing people, oppressing people, sending the message that, you know, the risk of rebelling against this guy, not so high.

So he had the first, say, 39, 40 years of, from his perspective, great success because he was not Mr. Nice Guy. The last few years, he put himself at great risk by - maybe he was drinking his own whiskey and thought people actually loved him. But he - he loosened up too much.

ZAKARIA: Which would suggest that the Syrian regime will endure because they seem to be oppressing, brutalizing - in other words, what you're saying is it's good to talk of those old line (ph), for a bad regime the biggest mistake is to start opening up a little.

BUENO DE MESQUITA: Yes. Not - that's true, but I'm optimistic that the Syrian regime will fall -

ZAKARIA: Why?

BUENO DE MESQUITA: -- and that there will be a reasonable amount of liberalization, not - not democracy. Because, again, they'll run out of money.

So the question is how much will the Iranians give them, if the reputed $5 billion is the right number. That's probably enough for the very large Assad family to find some place to go into exile and - and live out their lives in luxury. It's probably not enough to buy sustained loyalty from the military, and that loyalty is crumbling.

ZAKARIA: What are the - if you were predicting - looking forward now, what are the things that are going to surprise us?

BUENO DE MESQUITA: Oh, a very good question. Well, we wouldn't be surprised Russia's going to continue to deteriorate and get worse.

We might be surprised that over the next couple of years it is pretty likely that Saudi Arabia will liberalize a bit more, gradually moving towards a constitutional monarchy, but slowly. Morocco is highly likely to liberalize
.

Maybe not surprising, when Raul Castro passes from the scene, it is very likely that Cuba will move pretty rapidly to a fairly liberal democracy. We - we just have to hope that he passes from the scene soon enough so that the offshore exploration for oil and natural gas doesn't come on board, because then they will be able to entrench dictatorship.

ZAKARIA: Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, thank you so much.

BUENO DE MESQUITA: Thank you very much.

ZAKARIA: Pleasure.

(END VIDEOTAPE)
I disagree with the Gaddafi's post mortem. To me the wrong thing Gaddafi did was not negotiate with the portestors and buy them off. He didnt understand the forces ranged against him. I did a decision tree and posted it in this thread.


Also note Mesquita doesn't make big predictions. Only small issues that may or maynot make a big impact. KSA liberalizing would be a good thing.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by RajeshA »

ramana wrote:To me the wrong thing Gaddafi did was not negotiate with the portestors and buy them off. He didnt understand the forces ranged against him. I did a decision tree and posted it in this thread.
A dictator can absolutely not be seen as having bent to some opposition's demand. If he thinks that the demand is okay to give in to, he still needs to decapitate 5-6 leaders of the opposition, quell the resistance, and then unilaterally make changes others were demanding.

If the dictator is ever seen as soft or vulnerable, then he is gone!
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by devesh »

under a dictatorship, people don't rebel b/c they don't have freedom. I think they rebel only once the levers of control start weakening and other forces try to fill in the vacuum. it is in this vacuum that demands start being made. and once demands are made openly in defiance of the regime, it means that the regime has already lost control, b/c people are daring to raise their voices. at that point, the regime has no option but to find an alternate substitute which can aid the regime in channeling the frustration of the masses. and if needed, a section of the population, one which has gained some power and is dreaming about more power, needs to be put down ruthlessly. it is this section which raises the specter of revolution.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by shyamd »

The Saudi view. This article is authorised from the highest levels.
Saudi Arabia will lead
Nawaf Obaid

Since the chaos of the so-called "Arab spring" began last January, the centrality of Saudi Arabia to the region's security and stability has only been enhanced. It is true that the unrest has brought challenges for the kingdom, chief among them regional instability and the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. Nevertheless, over the long term the kingdom is well-positioned to emerge from this period with a stronger diplomatic hand and a more robust strategic position. As the Saudi government continues to use its resources to enhance the welfare of its people and stabilize the Arab world, its stature will grow while that of extremist groups such as al-Qaeda and rogue states like Iran will wither.

Despite the rhetoric in the West, the so-called Arab spring has ushered in a period of hardship across the region. Tens of thousands of civilians have died and the collapse of long-standing regimes has created a power vacuum where tribal resentment and regional rivalries take priority over national unity. The prospect of protracted civil war in these societies is real, especially given their vast stockpiles of unsecured weapons. Although some countries are at greater risk than others, the story is playing out in some form across the entire region. Even in cosmopolitan Egypt, which has historically had a deep national identity and was well-integrated into the global economy, early indications are that the Muslim Brotherhood is poised to dominate in the first post-Mubarak government. At the moment, there is no central authority in Egypt, and all the major organs of government save the army have collapsed.

These developments provide difficulties for Saudi Arabia because they have destabilized the region. The possibility that weapons will be easier to obtain in coming years is troubling, as is the prospect of the Muslim Brotherhood's rise. But even in this context, the kingdom has enjoyed stability and prosperity. The Saudi leadership recently oversaw a successful Hajj in which three million Muslims took part, including about two million visitors from outside the country. Despite warnings from some quarters, no unrest was seen during this pilgrimage. On the political front, the routinization of succession was demonstrated when the process proceeded in an orderly fashion after the death of Crown Prince Sultan.

More important than the challenges posed by regional unrest are the benefits to Saudi Arabia. The most important derives from the fact that Iran and al-Qaeda--the kingdom's two primary foes--have been seriously weakened by the waves of protest. Iran had staked its strategy in the Arab world on its ties to the Syrian government and the strength of Hizballah, its Lebanese proxy. However, the uprising against the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad has dramatically weakened Iran's position. Assad is Iran's most vocal ally in the Arab League and when he inevitably loses power, Iran will have no Arab representative for its interests. The loss of the Assad regime will degrade Hizballah's ability to organize within Lebanon and to threaten regional stability. At the same time, the unrest has helped cement the historical ties between the Saudi leadership and the Arab tribes that constitute the majority of Syria's population. Saudi Arabia led the regional diplomatic effort against the Assad regime and was the first major nation to withdraw its ambassador and suspend all contacts with the Syrian government.

The unrest has also weakened al-Qaeda, a group that declared war on the kingdom years before it began its campaign against the West. Although it has tried to co-opt the protest movements with desperate shows of rhetorical support, al-Qaeda has been completely absent from the demonstrations and has played no role in bringing down any of the regimes. This is significant because its decades-long campaign of violence was aimed explicitly at overthrowing leaders like Egypt's Hosni Mubarak and Tunisia's Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. In many cases, peaceful protesters accomplished in less than a month what al-Qaeda could not do during the past 15 years. This has discredited the movement's ideology, which over the long run helps eliminate one of the kingdom's key foes.

Into the power vacuum that has appeared, Saudi Arabia's vast economic and financial resources have provided it with a unique capability to aid those that have been affected by the recent unrest. The United States and Europe are unable to provide the financial assistance that these countries need, given the severe fiscal problems that they themselves face. Saudi Arabia on the other hand has already pledged over $15 billion in assistance to various Arab countries, with more likely to follow. In addition to financial support, the kingdom's defense support for the Bahraini government against Iranian-backed protesters was key to maintaining stability in that island nation.

There is no doubt that the unrest that has shaken the Arab world over the past year has created many difficulties for the region, most notably the possibility of continued civil conflict, the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood, and the danger of unsecured weapons. But due to its growing strength and unshaken stability, Saudi Arabia is in a unique position to lead through this challenging period. When the dust from the regional upheavals settles, Iran, al-Qaeda, and the enemies of stability will find themselves weakened and the Saudi kingdom will lead in transforming the so-called Arab spring's bitter autumn harvest into a new era of peace and stability in the Arab world.-Published 17/11/2011 © bitterlemons-international.org

Nawaf Obaid is senior fellow at King Faisal Center for Research & Islamic Studies in Riyadh.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Prem »

CIA Spies Caught, Fear Execution in Middle East
http://gma.yahoo.com/exclusive-cia-spie ... 19159.html
In a significant failure for the United States in the Mideast, more than a dozen spies working for the CIA in Iran and Lebanon have been caught and the U.S. government fears they will be or have been executed, according to four current and former U.S. officials with connections to the intelligence community.
The spies were paid informants recruited by the CIA for two distinct espionage rings targeting Iran and the Beirut-based Hezbollah organization, considered by the U.S. to be a terror group backed by Iran. "Espionage is a risky business," a U.S. official briefed on the developments told ABC News, confirming the loss of the unspecified number of spies over the last six months. "Many risks lead to wins, but some result in occasional setbacks," the official said. Robert Baer, a former senior CIA officer who worked against Hezbollah while stationed in Beirut in the 1980's, said Hezbollah typically executes individuals suspected of or caught spying.The U.S. official, speaking for the record but without attribution, gave grudging credit to the efforts of Iran and Hezbollah to detect and expose U.S. and Israeli espionage. "Collecting sensitive information on adversaries who are aggressively trying to uncover spies in their midst will always be fraught with risk," said the U.S. official briefed on the spy ring bust. But others inside the American intelligence community say sloppy "tradecraft" -- the method of covert operations -- by the CIA is also to blame for the disruption of the vital spy networks. In Beirut, two Hezbollah double agents pretended to go to work for the CIA. Hezbollah then learned of the restaurant where multiple CIA officers were meeting with several agents, according to the four current and former officials briefed on the case. The CIA used the codeword "PIZZA" when discussing where to meet with the agents, according to U.S. officialsThe U.S. official, speaking for the record but without attribution, gave grudging credit to the efforts of Iran and Hezbollah to detect and expose U.S. and Israeli espionage. "Collecting sensitive information on adversaries who are aggressively trying to uncover spies in their midst will always be fraught with risk," said the U.S. official briefed on the spy ring bust. But others inside the American intelligence community say sloppy "tradecraft" -- the method of covert operations -- by the CIA is also to blame for the disruption of the vital spy networks. In Beirut, two Hezbollah double agents pretended to go to work for the CIA. Hezbollah then learned of the restaurant where multiple CIA officers were meeting with several agents, according to the four current and former officials briefed on the case. The CIA used the codeword "PIZZA" when discussing where to meet with the agents, according to U.S. officials
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Prem »

doope
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Pranav »

shyamd wrote:The Saudi view. This article is authorised from the highest levels.
Saudi Arabia will lead
The Turks also think they are going to have a neo-Ottoman empire, which is why they have been supporting western action against Gaddhafi and now Assad.

Well, since the West Asians refuse to hang together, each caught in their own delusions, they will hang separately.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by JE Menon »

>>Well, since the West Asians refuse to hang together, each caught in their own delusions, they will hang separately.

Yup, all pointers are in this direction...
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Agnimitra »

Turkey is 'biggest winner' of Arab Spring
So Turkey's stock has gone up on the Arab street, though Iran also has modest gains. But check this tail-ender out -
And asked if there could be only one superpower in the world, which country they would prefer it to be, China topped the list at 23% - an increase of 9% from 2009 - followed by Germany (15%), Russia (12%), and France (10%), a substantial decline from more than 30% last year. The US was preferred by only 7%, tied with Pakistan.
1. US is now "hyphenated" with Pakistan :rotfl:
2. How TF does Pak manage to even get a mention on the Arab street? I'm guessing the Arab bazaar loves Pak's Islamic bum?
ramana
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by ramana »

^^^ The Arabs paid for it no?
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by sum »

Corrected heading from original:
Iraq hangs 12 Qaeda men for massacre
Twelve al-Qaeda members were executed in Iraq on Thursday for their role in the horrific massacre of 70 people during a wedding ceremony in 2006, the Iraqi Ministry of Justice said.

According to the Iraqi authorities, some 25 criminals attacked a convoy of wedding vehicles in a north Baghdad street, killing 15 children aged between two and 12 by hanging massive weights around their necks and throwing them in the river to drown, Xinhua reported. :shock:

The criminals also raped and killed all the women at the wedding, including the bride. They also killed the bridegroom and dozens of men, the authorities said.

“Twelve prisoners out of the 15 were executed early morning, including their leader Firas al-Jubouri,” said Iraq’s deputy justice minister Bushu Ibrahim.

“They are all members of al-Qaeda terrorist group who were involved in the crime of Dujail wedding,” he added.

The massacre had occurred during the peak of sectarian strife between the Shiite and Sunni communities in 2006, which left hundreds of thousands of people killed by the reprisal attacks.
Unbelievable barbaric behaviour on display!!!
Agnimitra
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Agnimitra »

Iranian MP Sees Military Council as Barrier to Egyptian Revolution
TEHRAN (FNA)- A prominent member of the Iranian parliament called the military council in Egypt as a hurdle standing in the way of the revolution in the Arab country, saying that the country's military rulers should give up power to the people.


"The Egyptian nation is well informed and vigilant and they know the conditions on the ground better than anyone else; that's why they are trying to make the military council leave power to hold the elections as soon as possible," member of the Iranian parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission Seyed Ahmad Avayee told FNA here on Saturday.

He further called on Egypt's military rulers to replace the presidential elections with a referendum to transfer power to the country's political activists and statesmen in a bid to pave the ground for a free election. ...
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