India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Part 2

chackojoseph · Post by **chackojoseph** » 13 Nov 2011 19:00

60 Rafales for UAE is 10 + billion dollars. For Indian tender it will be logically 20 + billion dollars, eh?

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 13 Nov 2011 19:32

it's an upgraded rafale with new engine and doodads which don't exist right now. more MKI'sh than MKI.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 13 Nov 2011 20:03

Rf has to be careful in dealing with both orders.. can they deliver the goods in time? what is their production capability in terms of delivering the 18, and supporting other orders, and parts supply to desh requirements?

ToT can help Rf or Ef as well.. where if excess facility from desh could be used for exports.

chackojoseph · Post by **chackojoseph** » 13 Nov 2011 20:12

Rahul M wrote:it's an upgraded rafale with new engine and doodads which don't exist right now. more MKI'sh than MKI.

Hypothetically, if M2K upg can get 2 bil upg's, then possibly the UAE Rafales can cost $ 2 - 5 bil $ extra. Can it be double the price?

anyway, 60 Rafales or 75 EFs cost the sheiks (or will) 20 bil $ +. I still am not getting the 126 a/c for 10 - 12 bil $ math.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 13 Nov 2011 20:18

did you not read $20b after the bid was opened?

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 13 Nov 2011 20:21

2 bil for 50 M2k, a much higher level of upgradation for 60 rafales, which includes new development like more powerful engines etc would easily require much more than that. however, for India cost will go down with local assembly and later production, as we saw with the hawks. considering everything it should come to around 15 bil IMHO, as one report said.

psyche, $20b is supposedly the upper limit is it not ?

p.s. speaking of hawks, going by the regularity with which disaster struck the red arrow hawks, I sure hope we are getting updated by BAe about the incidents and if IAF hawks are in danger as well.

chackojoseph · Post by **chackojoseph** » 13 Nov 2011 20:25

Nope SaiK

RahulM,

Your logic is right. Although it is premature to say. 126 or 180+ jets should cost some $40 bil+.

asprinzl · Post by **asprinzl** » 13 Nov 2011 20:58

A couple of reliable sources told me recently that India will split up the orders....giving both Rafale and Typhoon the orders. MMS supposedly trying to get as much political mileage from France, UK, Germany combined. If this is the case.....brilliant....especially when Europe needs all the money they can get and with three of the most powerful European nations beholden to you....score 1 should go to MMS!!

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 13 Nov 2011 21:16

If splitting, then cancel the M2K order. Have both of them supply/port common weapons - meteor, astra, ks172, brahmos, rafael's missiles along with other regular ones that comes. squeeze in as much as desi components or allow modification rights for kaveri++for the future, mission computing, composites etc.

80 Rf and 80 Ef, sounds terrorizing the world for both a2a and a2g ops! chippanda will never think of aksai chin.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 13 Nov 2011 21:29

asprinzl wrote:A couple of reliable sources told me recently that India will split up the orders....giving both Rafale and Typhoon the orders. MMS supposedly trying to get as much political mileage from France, UK, Germany combined. If this is the case.....brilliant....especially when Europe needs all the money they can get and with three of the most powerful European nations beholden to you....score 1 should go to MMS!!

I would be surprised if HAL found the resources to start two assembly lines.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 13 Nov 2011 21:42

Would it not be possible to get Rafale outright purchase with a pricing that is not for ToT, while Ef2k could be ToTed based on the offer. So we need only one assembly line.

OTOH, there could be some Rf technology that we may be interested, that can be clubbed along with M2K upgrade assembly needs.

kmc_chacko · Post by **kmc_chacko** » 13 Nov 2011 22:01

cancel Mirage upgrading and order 126 Rafael's i.e., (52 old Mirage & additional 74 i.e., extended order of MRCA for 74 fighters) and original order for MRCA i.e., 126 fighters of EF total 252 new birds to top end technology

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 13 Nov 2011 22:09

mm.. we need to think about upgrading 252s later on then.. that would be too expensive. I guess a deal for multiple tranches would be better. we need to focus on LCA++ and enabling technologies for AMCA. The numbers there needs to be in higher order actually, for vision 2020.

Taygibay · Post by **Taygibay** » 13 Nov 2011 22:17

Huh ?

Guys, while I do not know about the validity
of asprinzi's sources, this :

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articl ... st-364701/

It seems the UAE will finally don't buy any Rafale...

So why not some Typhoon?

should be taken with a mountain of salt.

Why? Because earlier this year, we learned that the UAE had
inquired towards Boeing about the F-18. It ended up being a
semi-fluke.
Why do I say that, you may ask? Because the "Sheiks" order
for the Rafale, as earlier buys from them is NOT a tender.
The UAE called Dassault/France to acquire the Rafale ( no other ).
One has to wonder why this info comes out NOW BTW?

*

You also have been incorrect on the numbers for that order.
Yes, the UAE did require 9 tons engines etc but they backtracked
from what industrial & mili/govt sources in France revealed.
( No official news from Dubaï on either too, they never publicize such. )

More importantly, that's a complete buy, weapons etc which is part
of the higher price as is the fact that the UAE usually include all
and often new demands in their negociations. Do remember that their
dash-nines are "made-to-order mini-Rafales" for instance.
Also remember that there will not be a production line over there.
It changes costs a lot. France set up a defence base for all three
armies ( air/sea/land ) in the UAE too. Not the UK/De/italospaniards.

About the ability for Dassault to fulfill both orders, I repeat that :
the present production line of the Rafale is able to deliver 30 ACs/year.
The French govt woud like to come back to the 8 annual birds rythm.
So that 30 + 30 =60 minus 16 for us comes to 44 possible available
Raffys in 2 plus years or 22 each for India and UAE combined.

Given time to ramp up, deliveries from summer 2012 would reach 11x3
by the summer of 2014 or 44 Rafale each by 2015's summer

When is that MMRCA date set for exactly?

There you go, things go better with the correct infos and timelines.

Good day all, Tay.

P.S. Splitting the MMRCA would be a nightmare for the IAF as far as
maintenance goes. There is no commonality at present between both ACs.*
The future of your Air Force lies in the Tejas and AMCA and the likes,
not trying to own the most eclectic collection of fighter/bombers on the
planet, "weally"

rajanb · Post by **rajanb** » 13 Nov 2011 22:27

chackojoseph wrote:60 Rafales for UAE is 10 + billion dollars. For Indian tender it will be logically 20 + billion dollars, eh?

CJ, it doesn't work that way. If the arithmetic was so simple the MoD would have announced the winner.

a) Fly-away Costs > Higher
b) SKD> less than above
c) CKD even less than above
d) Various stages of manufacturing. E.G SU 30 has reached Phase IV with complete Indian bid.
Amortisation of capital equipment; Factory; Training; and many other costs over total # of A/C
Cheers

Rishirishi · Post by **Rishirishi** » 13 Nov 2011 23:09

Certainly it will be simpler to maintain only one type. But as the numbers are large, I do not see any reason why economies of scale cannot be reached with splitting the order. -splitting the orders brings enormous benefits.

1 You can constantly play the parties against each other. If you select only one, they got you by the balls.
2 More advantages in the TOT field. Tech can be sourced from several sources.
3 Politically more independent.

Having said this, it IAF will have a lot of AC in its inventory.

LCA
Mig 29
Su-30
M2K
MIG 21
EF
Rafael
Russian stealth fighter

Despite all the aircrafts, it will not have the JSF, which will probably be the best one.

kelesis · Post by **kelesis** » 13 Nov 2011 23:10

Taygibay,

I know we must be carefull with this kind of development, but this time a RFP has been sent to EADS...

First, this information contrasts with statements by Longuet three weeks ago "the deal is done at 99%" or something like that. He spoke on October 17 and the RFP sent to EADS is dated October 17... I'm always amazed by the ability of the French ministers to open their mouths, especially when it is imperative to keep it closed. I also wonder if the job of the last two years has been effective with all these changes of MoD : Morin, MAM, Jupée, Longuet ...

Then, the timing of this statement: the day before the start of the Dubai Air Show, as the highest officials of Dassault, the French government and the AdlA are present in the hope of signing. It's a real public humiliation and this probably means that relations became suddenly very bad.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 13 Nov 2011 23:13

About logistics nightmare, form a 70% a russian origin parts and stores to a future of 50% share, would not that lead to more nightmares? pakfa, lca, mrca, and the older weapons and parts[jag, migs, mki, m2k], that we plan to extend by upgrading them.

So, splitting mmrca into nato specific logistics may not be a nightmare that what we are going to have is my opinion. I think this nightmare vision is a paradox.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 13 Nov 2011 23:48

Taygibay wrote:Same for France, hard to see why one and not the other??
MBDA makes missiles for both planes for instance and Rafale uses LGBs
that you can build inhouse with kits? Goes for both, mate!

Point being made is that just like the MoD/IAF didn't have a lot of options while going for a Mirage upgrade and had to deal with 'our way or the highway' situation. In the case of the EF the existence of others options - greater degree of cost sharing possibilities as well as Indian participation as a part of the consortium, works to mitigate those risks.

Sales right :
... il prévoit un transfert de technologie «illimité», un prix unitaire de l’appareil et une heure de vol comparables aux conditions offertes à l’armée de l’air française ; enfin, l’octroi au Brésil de l’exclusivité de l’exportation en Amérique latine du Rafale fabriqué localement.
Tay translation :
"... it offers an "unlimited" TOT, a unit price and flight hour cost similar to the conditions offered to the French Air Force : finally, transfer to Brazil of the exclusive exportation in Latin America of the locally produced Rafales."

from here : ( and elsewhere )
http://www.liberation.fr/economie/01016 ... -le-rafale

I was talking about France offering India Rafale export rights for Asia.

Point is, why is the Captor-E's quality suspect while that of the RBE-2 proven?
One is in production, one is in design, the existing one has worth, the other will have worth.
Real and imaginary you know? But still in agreement that Captor-E should get better range.

That's all I'm saying as well.

dedicated EW channel (similar to the newer American AESAs)
Already the case, ask the Americans, they know but sadly my sources are not public domain yet. **
Anyway, moot until both are over their FOCs.

Why would the Americans know about a French AESA radar?

PAK-FA or F-35 don't have an RCS less than the Rafale, because both aircraft are non-existent
Different because there are prototypes/initil production of each, not of the Captor yet. Soon though
And BTW, RCS is so subjective, there is no agreement in any fora.
The means of appraisal of TRUTH in that field are not public.
We all run on educated guesses. All!
There is an advance for Thales but it may well not be there in 3-5 years.
I'll try to provide documentation soon time permitting.

Point is most educated guesswork indicates that they will be so. And for the purposes of the debate that is usually accepted until evidence suggesting otherwise comes to light.

Orders for Tranche 3B are all under menace of simple abandon.
You've seen the news. None such was ever said by the French govt.
The present target is 286 planes, not so with EF orders and announcements.

You've seen the news about punitive clauses within the EF contracts. Cancelling the Tranche 3B could result in a bigger overall financial hit than going through with it. So its not as simple as saying its 'under menace of simple abandon'. With regard to France, with the Greece situation and now emerging Italy situation, further orders are intractably linked to the economic situation. Which is why until the money is committed, there is no guarantee of the order being placed.

I gave an assesment estimate of both ACs on a well-known aero-mili forum this very week
and came to : Advantage Rafale as a result. It was not disputed by anyone.
Hardly the work of a fanboy, huh?

So you assessed that the Rafale had an advantage on this forum and NO ONE had any dissenting opinion? I'm sort of forced to place a question mark on the forum itself. Well here at least, you have certain people with pro-Eurofighter opinions and others with pro-Rafale ones. And opposing viewpoints facilitate debate don't they.

They are different planes anyway and I repeatedly stated here
that I want India to make the right choice for its own needs.
As right here in my next to last post before this one :
As for last comment, a fan is an amateur that has a preference.
A fanboy maintains that preference through specious information no matter what.
Being one and not the other, I would heartily applaud the GoI/IAF and
Eurofighter consortium if they came to an agreement. In the same fashion,
I can assure you NOW that if the Rafale win that sweepstake, I will NOT
consider that definitive proof in itself of the superiority of it over the EF.
You just forgot to copy-paste and quote that part I guess?

I didn't paste that part because it wasn't a question and it wasn't a rebuttal. It didn't necessitate a response and so felt no compulsion to post one.

I am French and love my country, served for it.
I like Dassault as a historical planemaker from before WWII
( more than the consortium can say ) BUT
in some cases the Rafale will not be the right plane and I understand that perfectly.
For some countries it would be better to buy EF and for some Gripen
and for others US planes. That's life, that's ok.
For instance, if the Air interdiction aspect is very dominant in IAF view then EF!

If you feel you're completely unbiased , who am I to dispute that. I bow to your judgement.

srai · Post by **srai** » 14 Nov 2011 00:41

rajanb wrote:
chackojoseph wrote:60 Rafales for UAE is 10 + billion dollars. For Indian tender it will be logically 20 + billion dollars, eh?
CJ, it doesn't work that way. If the arithmetic was so simple the MoD would have announced the winner.

a) Fly-away Costs > Higher
b) SKD> less than above
c) CKD even less than above
d) Various stages of manufacturing. E.G SU 30 has reached Phase IV with complete Indian bid.
Amortisation of capital equipment; Factory; Training; and many other costs over total # of A/C
Cheers

Yes, the forumla for per unit cost will vary over the years.

But if we were to average out the unit cost, IMO, we are looking at between $120 million to $150 million per plane, inclusive of manufacturing license and setup, TOT, and x amount of spares/support.

Lower end -> 126 x $120 million = $15.12 billion
Higher end -> 126 x $150 million = $18.9 billion

Plus, xx billions of dollars for 30-40 year operating and upgrade costs.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 14 Nov 2011 00:56

Flipping though my back issues of JDW,I came across this piece ,though dated earlier this year,which will dampen the spirits of EF supporters.UK Typhoon bid "not yet value for money"! JDW.Some brief points.2B extra costs for the UK MOD,thanks to "multinational mangement",kept within budget only by "cutting numbers of airframes by 72(!)".Air-to-ground training for Tyhpoon pilots "discontinued"! Last Tranche 3 aircraft to be recd, in 2015,to be retired in 2030.

The IAF/MOD will have its task cut out to find the "winner",whose capabilities will be not better than an SU-30MKI,certainly inferior to a Super-Flanker being developed, and which might cost 1.5 times as much! Both aircraft will use similar munitions like Meteor,etc.,therefore the available info about one-on-one combat,recent combat experience in Afghanistan and Libya, between the two might swing the decison,prices beign almost equal.

Now these details were never allowed to be published earlier,as "sensitive",but now revealed to be costing the UK govt. 37B pounds,and support costs have nnow risen to 1/3rd.within budget only because of procurement number reduction by more than 60+ aircraft.This makes some of the EF's history resemble that of the Yanqui turkey (JSF),but in the same issue,the "gremlins" afffecting the JSF's helmet,supposed to need no HUD,now will have an HUD if "need be",if gthe helmet comes a cropper.

The same issue also reports about the scathing condemnation by India's PAC on the "3 year" Scorpene delay and the "lame excuses" being put out by MOD babudom.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 14 Nov 2011 02:07

asprinzl wrote:A couple of reliable sources told me recently that India will split up the orders....giving both Rafale and Typhoon the orders. MMS supposedly trying to get as much political mileage from France, UK, Germany combined. If this is the case.....brilliant....especially when Europe needs all the money they can get and with three of the most powerful European nations beholden to you....score 1 should go to MMS!!

For that happen, then the removal of the 4 planes was a rigged affair. It had to be.

Someone in 2009 had posted that the Appache was a rigged affair.

Bet so was the C-17, FGFA (@ around $30 Billion) and perhaps all the helos too.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 14 Nov 2011 02:10

asprinzl wrote:A couple of reliable sources told me recently that India will split up the orders....giving both Rafale and Typhoon the orders. MMS supposedly trying to get as much political mileage from France, UK, Germany combined. If this is the case.....brilliant....especially when Europe needs all the money they can get and with three of the most powerful European nations beholden to you....score 1 should go to MMS!!

Those reliable sources are not very reliable since what they speak is rubbish.

The IAF has gone on record repeatedly and publicly saying the orders will not be split up.

Kartik · Post by **Kartik** » 14 Nov 2011 03:23

tejas wrote:The Jaguar lost the DPSA contest to the Viggen. Then president Jimmy Carter refused to supply the engine (the GE J79 I believe) and the Viggen gave way to the Jag.

says who? Gp Cpt Kapil Bhargava had stated that the IAF always wanted the Jaguar and that the Viggen and Mirage F1 were only included to add a semblance of competition to the mix.

Kartik · Post by **Kartik** » 14 Nov 2011 03:27

asprinzl wrote:A couple of reliable sources told me recently that India will split up the orders....giving both Rafale and Typhoon the orders. MMS supposedly trying to get as much political mileage from France, UK, Germany combined. If this is the case.....brilliant....especially when Europe needs all the money they can get and with three of the most powerful European nations beholden to you....score 1 should go to MMS!!

ain't gonna happen my dear Apsrinzl. the IAF will not want 2 new types to be inducted with all their attendant training, infrastructure and maintenance setups being so different. It is a far bigger headache than it is worth, even strategically.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 14 Nov 2011 03:42

asprinzl wrote:A couple of reliable sources told me recently that India will split up the orders....giving both Rafale and Typhoon the orders. MMS supposedly trying to get as much political mileage from France, UK, Germany combined. If this is the case.....brilliant....especially when Europe needs all the money they can get and with three of the most powerful European nations beholden to you....score 1 should go to MMS!!

I heard the same. This will change the dynamics and will not create the competitive politics and keep the bridges still in good shape

Kartik · Post by **Kartik** » 14 Nov 2011 03:44

Philip wrote:
The IAF/MOD will have its task cut out to find the "winner",whose capabilities will be not better than an SU-30MKI,certainly inferior to a Super-Flanker being developed, and which might cost 1.5 times as much! Both aircraft will use similar munitions like Meteor,etc.,therefore the available info about one-on-one combat,recent combat experience in Afghanistan and Libya, between the two might swing the decison,prices beign almost equal.

Why will the Typhoon or Rafale be inferior to the Su-30MKI ? Maybe a more detailed analysis could be useful rather than just generic statements like this? And what makes the Super-30 superior to the Typhoon with Captor-E and Rafale with RBE-2 AESA?

Just asking- I'd like to see what data you have to back up such a claim.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 14 Nov 2011 04:01

Thinking if composites and stealth airframe makes super sukhoi, plus its little heavy combat a/c and has a longer range, and can house a larger radar, and fire real BVR missiles (brahmos and ks172), with TVC would make it just about the game changer. however, the comparisons here are not correct.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 14 Nov 2011 04:12

Kartik,

If you can, read Vlamgat by Dick Lord. He talks a fair bit about the Mirage F-1 in South African AF service. I wonder how it would have fared in IAF service if it had been chosen over the Jaguar and what the IAF would have made of it. Admittedly, more of a multirole type and not a dedicated A2G type like the Jaguar, but still a very interesting aircraft.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 14 Nov 2011 04:13

Kartik wrote:
asprinzl wrote:A couple of reliable sources told me recently that India will split up the orders....giving both Rafale and Typhoon the orders. MMS supposedly trying to get as much political mileage from France, UK, Germany combined. If this is the case.....brilliant....especially when Europe needs all the money they can get and with three of the most powerful European nations beholden to you....score 1 should go to MMS!!
ain't gonna happen my dear Apsrinzl. the IAF will not want 2 new types to be inducted with all their attendant training, infrastructure and maintenance setups being so different. It is a far bigger headache than it is worth, even strategically.

Exactly. All this hearsay about "reliable sources" and so on is funny.

An IAF Chief went on record saying this would never happen. But like clockwork, people prop up to make claims based on "reliable sources", which are anything but. I'd sure like too see the imaginary talk of strategic genius etc. conjure up the thousands of crores of extra funds required to fund two entirely different sets of logistics systems for two entirely different aircraft.

And why bother? Either of these two types will smash the PAF (whose best plane is the CFT equipped F-16 which IAF rejected on grounds of not being maneuverable enough) and can head off the PLAAF when properly employed.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 14 Nov 2011 04:17

Kartik wrote:
Philip wrote:
The IAF/MOD will have its task cut out to find the "winner",whose capabilities will be not better than an SU-30MKI,certainly inferior to a Super-Flanker being developed, and which might cost 1.5 times as much! Both aircraft will use similar munitions like Meteor,etc.,therefore the available info about one-on-one combat,recent combat experience in Afghanistan and Libya, between the two might swing the decison,prices beign almost equal.
Why will the Typhoon or Rafale be inferior to the Su-30MKI ? Maybe a more detailed analysis could be useful rather than just generic statements like this? And what makes the Super-30 superior to the Typhoon with Captor-E and Rafale with RBE-2 AESA?

Just asking- I'd like to see what data you have to back up such a claim.

Yes, lets see Philips analysis. I have certain thoughts, based on published statements & back of the envelope estimates about where the Super30 may have some advantage. But to claim that the "winner" of the MMRCA will not be better than a Su-30 MKI (across the board) and "certainly inferior" to the Super Flanker, is clearly ...just plain wrong.

Each type will have certain pros and cons, and it would have been far better to state that a Super 30 Upgraded Flanker may be better in terms of ROI and offer equivalent or some superior capabilities, as versus claiming outright superiority in every respect which is hardly the case in comparing across different types.

Taygibay · Post by **Taygibay** » 14 Nov 2011 06:18

@ Kelesis

Sources have confirmed that the UK provided a formal briefing about the Typhoon to UAE officials on 17 October, after being asked to explore how it might meet future fast jet requirements

From :
http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articl ... st-364701/

Unless your credentials are better than FlghtGlobal, I'll trust them, sorry.
Being asked does not equate RFP. The timing is that it got out a month later
than received but sources ?? Not an RFP then.
Yes though your analysis about the timing of the question is important.
Also sadly agreed in general about the French ministers' bad habit.

@ Viv_s

Point being made is that just like the MoD/IAF didn't have a lot of options while going for a Mirage upgrade and had to deal with 'our way or the highway' situation. In the case of the EF the existence of others options - greater degree of cost sharing possibilities as well as Indian participation as a part of the consortium, works to mitigate those risks.

The MoD/IAF could well have gone Israëli, they're able or local for some stuff.
You do not know partnership hasn't been offered by Dassault. Nor do I.
We'll know when it becomes public. It's been my main point since the beginnig of the discussion.

I was talking about France offering India Rafale export rights for Asia.

Oops misunderstanding then.

But the point is they may have as said to Kelesis.

Why would the Americans know about a French AESA radar?

Sorry, really can't answer but we tarin a lot together, you know?

... educated guesswork ... is usually accepted ...

... and sometimes costs lifes.

( Although not on fora, of course. )

Cancelling the Tranche 3B could result in a bigger overall financial hit than going through with it. So its not as simple as saying its 'under menace of simple abandon'.

Philip posted part of a rebutal, read up, ViV.
And it is funny how you calculate France as being in dire straits ...
but forget that Italy and Spain will sink first

2 out of four in EF nations and the others talking of not ordering ....
Don't be unfair buddy, goes both ways, been telling you since the start.

As for this magnificient piece :

So you assessed that the Rafale had an advantage on this forum and NO ONE had any dissenting opinion? I'm sort of forced to place a question mark on the forum itself. Well here at least, you have certain people with pro-Eurofighter opinions and others with pro-Rafale ones. And opposing viewpoints facilitate debate don't they.

That forum is acessible to you if you want.
It is one of the best known and most respected in the field.
I don't know if I'm allowed to give the name seeing how the BR mods seem ticklish.
But there are many posters with claim to E-fame better than yours or mine so ...
It can also be labelled as the home of the Typhoon so ...
Its owners are editors of some of the best magazines in mili business so ...
And are British so ...as far as you questionning them or the lack of opposition, hum ...

But you may have over-valued my use of the word advantage
which I meant as leading by two points on a fifth set tie-break

and under-valued assesment estimate meaning including points
given now and admitted to be expected to change.
If you remember that the Typhoon is not mature and the Rafale is
it would help immensely.
From 2015 and 2025, there will be a long period of comparative
debating to be done, promise

but in the meanwhile ...

Opposing theoretical, rhetorical opinions on subjective matter
and vague statements facilitate unending fruitless bickering ...
Links, quotes and non-specious rephrasing are the tools of debate.
Just saying.

Good night all, Tay.

P.S. Viv_S mate, the French govt has turned down the Mirage 2000D
upgrade and the trusted F1 mentioned by Karan-M are not going to
be there in ten years, one of the things that make me sure that the
orders for the Rafale are doing fine ... all because the last MinDef
AKA MoD 2012 budget for has 11 Rafales and the rest will be there
for replacement something that should be as obvious as the fact that
it is the induction of a new standard.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 14 Nov 2011 08:24

so all these IAF defensive systems are now boiling down to masans will feel mightily p!ssed. wow!

Kartik · Post by **Kartik** » 14 Nov 2011 08:42

Karan M wrote:
Yes, lets see Philips analysis. I have certain thoughts, based on published statements & back of the envelope estimates about where the Super30 may have some advantage. But to claim that the "winner" of the MMRCA will not be better than a Su-30 MKI (across the board) and "certainly inferior" to the Super Flanker, is clearly ...just plain wrong.

Each type will have certain pros and cons, and it would have been far better to state that a Super 30 Upgraded Flanker may be better in terms of ROI and offer equivalent or some superior capabilities, as versus claiming outright superiority in every respect which is hardly the case in comparing across different types.

Yes Karan, I too can think of a couple of areas where the Super-30 has obvious advantages, but the Typhoon and Rafale "inferior" to it? I don't think so- not unless a very compelling argument is made for it. The Su-30MKI has some obvious drawbacks as against both the MRCA contenders, RCS being one of the major ones. To some degree, it offsets the advantages of a huge BARS radar for a first look capability.

and FWIW, we still don't know what radar it will have- a bigger Zhuk-AE or the Irbis? and whether or not it will entail any major RCS reduction features like canted tails, conformal weapons pods or simply RCS reducing RAM is still not clear.

Anyway, I'd like to see Philip's reply and how he deduced that the Typhoon and Rafale are inferior.

Nick_S · Post by **Nick_S** » 14 Nov 2011 08:48

Eurofighter has apparently secured sale of another 60 EFs. 12 to Oman and 48 follow on order to the Saudis. (see below link)

So EF continues to garner export sales while nothing for Rafale?

----

Tay, UAE has issued RFP as per Aviation Week.

http://au.zinio.com/reader.jsp?issue=416198869&o=ext

There is also a one pager on JF-17 on page 52.

Kartik · Post by **Kartik** » 14 Nov 2011 08:53

And in news- BAe expects a 48 Typhoon order as follow-on for the 72 that the Saudis initially purchased, taking their total to 120. And BAe in an internal announcement has said that Oman is likely to sign a contract by Dec 2011, for 12 Typhoons.

Dubai Air Show zinio reader

So suddenly, things looking up for Eurofighter Gmbh and things not so rosy for Dassault with UAE opening up talks with new entrants.

rajanb · Post by **rajanb** » 14 Nov 2011 08:58

Kartik wrote:And in news- BAe expects a 48 Typhoon order as follow-on for the 72 that the Saudis initially purchased, taking their total to 120. And BAe in an internal announcement has said that Oman is likely to sign a contract by Dec 2011, for 12 Typhoons.

Dubai Air Show zinio reader

So suddenly, things looking up for Eurofighter Gmbh and things not so rosy for Dassault with UAE opening up talks with new entrants.

oh my. Pressure, pressure, pressure. Haven't I done this, tried that as a salesman?

The downside could be, for EADS is that is it a sign of nervousness, with the four countries reducing their commitments or a sign of desperation?

Anway, Let the best fighter win! It is our money after all!

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 14 Nov 2011 09:19

which makes IAF better is more important here.

chackojoseph · Post by **chackojoseph** » 14 Nov 2011 09:46

rajanb wrote:
chackojoseph wrote:60 Rafales for UAE is 10 + billion dollars. For Indian tender it will be logically 20 + billion dollars, eh?
CJ, it doesn't work that way. If the arithmetic was so simple the MoD would have announced the winner.

a) Fly-away Costs > Higher
b) SKD> less than above
c) CKD even less than above
d) Various stages of manufacturing. E.G SU 30 has reached Phase IV with complete Indian bid.
Amortisation of capital equipment; Factory; Training; and many other costs over total # of A/C
Cheers

All agreed. But, we still have 10 billion $. No matter how efficient the abcd's (as mentioned by you), we still cannot afford $ 40 bil +. A life cycle cost of efficient 10 billion worth of a/c is good in same ratio as 40 bil worth. I am not arguing that we should not buy them as I have always argued that even 40 bil is good as long as we get the tech and get integrated into the international system of arms sales. I am looking at pocket. The DPP procedures have a cut off limit for the price. (I am not sure) It can be max 10 - 20 % more than the budgeted figure. But, 400 % is violation, right?

Taygibay · Post by **Taygibay** » 14 Nov 2011 09:57

Thanks Nick.
That article seems very oriented towards an industry source from BAe
and not as good as a word from the UAE govt but proper source so go
with RFP for now.
Which is interesting enough for a thread by itself. The change from the
Rafale ( if it is what it is and not a complementary order to it ) towards
F-15, F-18 and Typhoon is an interesting competition in its own right.

So correct that for now Kelesis, even though as pointed out by someone
else it still doesn't take the actual process of the MMRCA out of the money
guys' hands.

Good night all, Tay.