India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Part 2

Henrik · Post by **Henrik** » 12 Dec 2011 15:27

arthuro wrote:If the IAF goes for the rafale there will certainly be a strong incentive for the rafale as a new rafale naval fighter. I am not saying it would be Indian Navy decision for sure but it would certainly become the natural option in case of a rafale win. It is evident that indian officers and defense ministry bureaucrats must have envisioned the possibility of operating a common aircraft. In that case the rafale choice opens strategic "possibilities" by creating synergies between branches of the armed forces. That's a distinct rafale asset as it leaves possibilities opened while they would be most certainly closed with the typhoon unless you want to invest billions in a risky concept that is completely unproven.

The F35C is certainly very capable but as far as ToT, access of source codes and indigenous evolution is concerned it will most probably not make the cut for Indian armed forces. As for the T50 speaking about a naval variant is speculation at this stage.

Regarding the SDB II you are wrong on that : it is a totally new design from a different manufacturer than the SDB I. It will certainly be too expensive to be used in very vast quantities just like the AASM which is cheaper than you say as India will not have to pay for french development costs (quoted costs are all inclusive but does not reflect the "fly away" price). And the SDB is basically a small bomb while the AASM is a kit and can be fitted to small to heavy bombs for better operational effectiveness. A 1000Kg AASM will pack incredibly more punch than a SDB, even the 125Kg AASM for that matter. Total SDB weight is around 110Kg.

And if you are so fond of the SDB you can still integrate it on the rafale so that's hardly an argument as you will still have to pay to integrate it on the typhoon.

When would you need a 1000kg rocket boosted bomb with a limited range? A building isn't going to move and if it's heavily defended, a cruise missile would be the preferred choice anyway.

No, the punch from a SDB combined with its stand off range is more than enough for most scenarios. For everything else there's cruise missiles, JDAMs, LGBs etc.

member_20453 · Post by **member_20453** » 12 Dec 2011 15:31

arthuro wrote:The fact that they issued a RFI is not innocent just like the fact that non naval fighters like the typhoon and the gripen started marketing navalized variant of their jets. They are said to look for a new naval fighter in approx. 10 years.

Also the fact that Indian officers are testing Naval aircrafts like the Rafale M or the SH (for the latter it could be related to MMRCA only though) makes my point. Even the comment of the F35 goes against what you previously stated.

IN pilots flying Raffy, SH, su-33, mig-29K has little do with wanting to buy. There is no RFP, once an RFP is issues test pilots will fly contenders and they will evaluate them against a set of detailed parameters, since RFP wont come for a while. so it is irrelevant to think about what IN will get.

SDB is indeed a small bomb well the name itself says it, SDB-1 is gps/ins and SDB-2 will have a tri mode seeker. Both will have massive production runs and with a rack carrying upto 4 bombs allows an aircraft like the Ef to carry upwards of 16 bombs in a single mission, it can hit moving, hardened and regular targets. For bigger bombs the Paveways and JDAM families are far more effective and cover longer ranges. AASM is just an expensive weapons that will have few buyer and thus will become economically inviable to continue production. Why waste money buying expensive AASM while a single CBU-97/105 SFW can take out upto 40 targets. Unkil can also offer the AAGRM upgraded HARM meant to take out radar that have been switched off. Agree with Singha SLAM-ER should be ordered for the P-8I as well.
Taurus has a range of 500km but we cant get it, a lower range version is useless because SLAM-ER can be bought for a lower price and offers more functionality. JSOW too is a good option. JDAM-ER is a better alternative for the bigger versions of AASM.

member_20453 · Post by **member_20453** » 12 Dec 2011 15:45

kelesis wrote:According to EADS, Indian "Rafale offer was priced counting on successful UAE deal."

This kind of looser statement smells good for Dassault!

Considering the tensions between UK and Germany on Europe and inside Eurofighter (EADS was not aware of the UAE offer by BAE until revealed by the press!), it is clear that Rafale is the safest and the cheapest option for India.

Well Dassault's record with Rafale is undeniable as the looser. If they loose the Indian competition which is certain they will, they will permanantly end up with the looser tag. Safest option for India has always been the EF with lots of unkil's hard hitting goodies on board. With severe A2A threat we face in this region, EF with its big radar and TVN and other goodies is a far better option.

kelesis · Post by **kelesis** » 12 Dec 2011 16:37

Septimus,

EADS statement just reveals they have a problem with the price of the Rafale for MMRCA. Regarding mid and long term evolutions, Dassault is in a better position than Cassidian. Dassault is leading the Neuron UCAV european program and the drone program for France and UK together with BAE. Cassidian has been excluded from all new programs mainly because Eurofighter and A400M are financial disasters (Rafale price is 4.6% higher than expected, EF it's 75%!) that's facts. Dassault is profitable while Cassidian suffers heavy losses, that's also facts. In addition, EF has always been consider as more expensive and/or less capable than Rafale by potential customers.

On the political ground things are not better for EF. Germany and England are in disagreement on all politicals issues and negociations to fund EF evolutions are always very difficult.

While England and France don't want to work with EADS anymore and Germany is not concern about military spendings, I think it is better to bet on Dassault than EF for a future 40 years industrial relations, it is clearly the safest option.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 12 Dec 2011 19:59

kelesis wrote:Septimus,

EADS statement just reveals they have a problem with the price of the Rafale for MMRCA. Regarding mid and long term evolutions, Dassault is in a better position than Cassidian. Dassault is leading the Neuron UCAV european program and the drone program for France and UK together with BAE. Cassidian has been excluded from all new programs mainly because Eurofighter and A400M are financial disasters (Rafale price is 4.6% higher than expected, EF it's 75%!) that's facts.

Sigh. The 75% increase was because the UK cut its orders by 72 aircraft out of the originally intended 232. But since those were sold to Saudi Arabia the money was recovered, even though the receipts were not accounted back into the EF's tally.

The actual cost increase is a little over 10%, and unlike the Rafale this is spread over the 232 aircraft actually ordered not those expected be ordered (the French govt has so far only ordered 180 out of the projected 286, there's still plenty of time for its cost to inflate further).

Aside from the BAE-Dassault Telemos project what new programs has Cassidian been excluded from?

Dassault is profitable while Cassidian suffers heavy losses, that's also facts.

Cassidian doesn't post financials independently AFAIK. I assume you've closely scrutinized EADS financials to come to that conclusion. If so, details of these losses would be very welcome. Its hard to quantify 'heavy losses' without figures or specific years/time in question.

In addition, EF has always been consider as more expensive and/or less capable than Rafale by potential customers.

So everyone keeps saying yet the actual figures say different.

The EF's program cost is £18.16 billion or €21.28 billion for a build order of 232 aircraft, according to the UK National Audit Office.

http://www.nao.org.uk/idoc.ashx?docId=C ... version=-1

Assuming the Saudi EF's were sold at cost, that implies the Eurofighter ended up costing - €91.72 million/unit.

The Rafale's cost according to this audit report (don't know if its French Senate or MoD) is €40.69 billion for an expected order of 286 aircraft.

http://www.ccomptes.fr/fr/CC/documents/ ... mement.pdf

That puts the program unit cost of the Rafale at €142.27 million each.

[Edit: I'm not sure what taxes are inclusive in the EF's cost but the Rafale's price is VAT inclusive. Without it, it would cost about €120 million.]

Even assuming for accounting omissions in computations, its still quite clear that the Rafale isn't likely to have a cost advantage of any significance.

As far as the Indian competition goes, the flyaway costs for both aircraft were within 5% of each other (could even be less). The operational and ToT cost remains to be seen.

On the political ground things are not better for EF. Germany and England are in disagreement on all politicals issues and negociations to fund EF evolutions are always very difficult.

The political leaderships are odds over matters of finance and governance. The leaderships of the RAF and Luftwaffe on the other hand are relatively in synch. The British decision to stay out of the Eurozone in the 90s didn't go down very well either, but it didn't hamper the development of the Eurofighter.

RAF, Luftwaffe chiefs back new technology for Tranche 3 Eurofighter

Two of the air force chiefs from the launch Eurofighter nations have underlined their services' continued commitment to the programme, and say they want to field new capabilities with the aircraft.

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articl ... er-329943/

While England and France don't want to work with EADS anymore and Germany is not concern about military spendings, I think it is better to bet on Dassault than EF for a future 40 years industrial relations, it is clearly the safest option.

It also gives France a degree of leverage that India may not be very comfortable with. With the Eurofighter it gets some form of a partnership, while its dynamic with Dassault is of a customer/seller, a trusted one, but a seller nonetheless. If a future Rafale MLU goes down like that of the IAF's Mirage-2000, Dassault may yet again take a 'our way or the highway' approach.

Also, while EADS's primary customer is still Germany, both EADS and BAE are expanding aggressively in India with a view to settle in here for the long run (BAE already counts India as one of its seven home markets). Dassault on the other hand seems quite passive, content with its profitable Falcon jet production.

member_20453 · Post by **member_20453** » 12 Dec 2011 20:12

Kelesis,

Funny, rather they seem to be confident they will win. They know overall their offer is far more beneficial to India. No one cares whether EADS is in loss or not, the whole line will be transferred to India, they have exp. transferring production, heck even the Saudis will assemble their own EFs. We will end up getting full-tot offcourse with unkil's blessing , source codes, technical blueprints. We have a lot more to gain because it comes with a bigger radar, a cutting edge engine with TVN with over 20% growth potential, better g-suits, better pilot interface, better dog fighting missiles, better Meteor capability, supercruise, etc.

The Ef winning would lead to over 20k jobs created in India. This would also open better opportunties for our private companies who will end up supplying spares and critical parts to both old and new EF customers. Overall EF is far more beneficial for India, Raffy just doesn't offer such industrial benefits.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 12 Dec 2011 21:08

An hypothetical question to the contending Eurocanard discussions here: Say, Cassadian and Dassault are going to combine their technology and capabilities for a Joint Mission - 6th gen CAV (dual version - manned and unmanned); what would each bring to the table? [assume: Totally funded by India]

manum · Post by **manum** » 12 Dec 2011 21:30

^^A costly aircraft...

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 12 Dec 2011 23:33

that is all they have?

Kovy · Post by **Kovy** » 13 Dec 2011 02:00

Viv S wrote:
kelesis wrote:Septimus,
That puts the program unit cost of the Rafale at €142.27 million each.

[Edit: I'm not sure what taxes are inclusive in the EF's cost but the Rafale's price is VAT inclusive. Without it, it would cost about €120 million.]

Even assuming for accounting omissions in computations, its still quite clear that the Rafale isn't likely to have a cost advantage of any significance.

Your comparison is irrelevant.
Your rafale cost includes an Air Force and a navy variant, both with complete and validated multirole capabilities (mica EM/IR, GBU, AASM, exocet, ASMPA, scalp, reco-NG, buddy-buddy refueling) and an AESA antenna

Your typhoon prices include an airforce only variant with limited bi-role capability (amraam, asraam, paveway III) and a MSA antenna.

That what I call massive accounting omissions !

shukla · Post by **shukla** » 13 Dec 2011 02:53

MMRCA procurement at contract negotiations stage: Antony

Msn News

New Delhi, Dec 12 (PTI) The final cost of procurement of 126 Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft (M-MRCA) for the Indian Air Force would be known after completion of negotiations and finalisation of the contract, the government told the Lok Sabha today.

In written reply to a question in the lower house, Defence Minister A K Antony said, "The proposal is now at the contract negotiations stage, and the final cost of procurement would be known only after completion of negotiations and finalisation of the contract."
He said the Defence Acquisitions Council had accorded Acceptance of Necessity for procurement of 126 M-MRCA at an estimated cost of Rs 42,000 crore in June 2007.

Replying to a query related to offset proposal of the contract, he said, "As per Defence Procurement Procedure (DPP) 2006 these (offset) relate to direct purchase of defence products or services or direct investments with Indian offset partners as per the stipulated guidelines."

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 13 Dec 2011 03:23

Kovy wrote:Your comparison is irrelevant.
Your rafale cost includes an Air Force and a navy variant, both with complete and validated multirole capabilities (mica EM/IR, GBU, AASM, exocet, ASMPA, scalp, reco-NG, buddy-buddy refueling) and an AESA antenna

First off, Kelesis did not say that the Rafale provides better value for money or better capabilities at a higher price. His simple contention was that the EF was more expensive, and I've amply proved that its cost is comparable at worst, and lower by a significant margin at best.

And yes the cost computed is the average price. For air force variant, it will be €117 million exclusive of VAT(assuming the cost ratio is 64:70).

Your typhoon prices include an airforce only variant with limited bi-role capability (amraam, asraam, paveway III) and a MSA antenna.

Actually the Eurofighter's quoted cost to completion includes the Future Capability Programme - full integration of the ASRAAM, AMRAAM, Meteor, Paveway III, Paveway IV, Litening III, Reccelite, HMSS and the development of an production variant Captor-E (I'm unclear about the size or scope of the RAF's Captor-E order). JDAMs and HARMs are being prepared for integration by the Luftwaffe.

That what I call massive accounting omissions !

Only the integration of the Brimstone and Storm Shadow on RAF EFs is unfunded so far. Hardly a massive accounting omission.

Also, while we're on the topic of accounting queerness, its worth noting that the Rafale expenditure is repeatedly shown as being amortized over a 286 unit order while only 180 units are actually funded. Which means while inflation is in any case unaccounted for, there remain questions about the Rafale's eventual fleet size. At a production rate of 10.5 aircraft annually, Rafale deliveries will only conclude by 2028. Which means the latest Rafale units would end up serving till almost 2060 (even the IAF will start retiring its MRCAs in 2045). There's a considerable likelihood of orders been capped before that target is achieved, translating into a higher unit program cost.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 13 Dec 2011 03:49

SaiK wrote:An hypothetical question to the contending Eurocanard discussions here: Say, Cassadian and Dassault are going to combine their technology and capabilities for a Joint Mission - 6th gen CAV (dual version - manned and unmanned); what would each bring to the table? [assume: Totally funded by India]

Technically there is no deficiency in either company's design capability. Most joint ventures entered to are in an effort to cut costs and serve as the primary national contractor for the country's assigned workshare, rather than to find operational or design synergies.

For example BAE or EADS could have designed and built the Eurofighter entirely on their own (though Rolls Royce and Selex would have to get involved as well). They shared the work because the UK and Germany were splitting the development bill.

Point is, India were to ever contract a European company to design or consult on a future aircraft, a single company would suffice (and be more practical). Personally, I think BAE would be the best fit. Its got better industrial alliances than Cassadian (Rolls Royce, Selex, Thales UK), and a greater (and still expanding) presence in India than Dassault (including closer ties to HAL).

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 13 Dec 2011 04:46

Philip, BAE is the inheritor of Basil Zarhoff's legacy.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 13 Dec 2011 07:18

Thanks Viv S for the reply, let me ask a relatively different question: Rafale vs Eurofighter: what do each other a/c or it's users consider the other has something better? For example [for the sake of argument here]: Rf users could consider Ef has better engines and radar, retractable pods and stores etc. And Ef users could consider Rf's SPECTRA, somewhat stealth, mission computer, etc.

And, we have enough in this thread about Rf patrons and Ef patrons boasting about each others are the best. I would like them to start taking a stand in appreciating the opponent's (Rf wala on Ef, and Ef wala on Rf) a/c features, and see who is willing to appreciate the real good features of the "contending enemy fighter"?

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 13 Dec 2011 08:17

Interesting observation Ramanna! Yes,he did root for Vickers and a lot of UK companies in his heyday.

Some interesting notes from Libya from DTI,Dec. issue:

The Gripen's recce pod "astounded" people with the quality of its imagery.The Rafale's Areos pod also "did well".Wide us of SAGEM's AASM "powered bomb",Raytheon's Paveway-4,laser guided GPS and MBDA's dual-mode Brimstone.Oher reports say that UK Typhoons had to use Tornado's pods lighting up targets for strike missions.However,despite their inventory of 250-300 aircraft,both Britain and France could only muster about 25 each to the Libyan campaign,"something to consider for fast-jet force generation for all players".

Further reports say that another revolution is on the way with combat sensors,where IRST is fast becoming the key to victory.These are already used in Russian MIGs and Sukhois as anti-stealth detectors,only now arriving on the EF.Instead of one-side dominance and reduced RCSin a world of high sensitivity ESM,effective jamming and IRST will be part of a trend where combat takes place at closer ranges...
"LO observables lead to more close-in combat",was one conclusion.This justifies the requirement for exceptional close-combat capabilities for our MMRCA,and FFGFA too.

shukla · Post by **shukla** » 13 Dec 2011 17:43

France hopeful on Rafale, not giving up aviation-PM

PARIS, Dec 12 (Reuters) - France still hopes to find a buyer for its Rafale fighter jets and has no intention of giving up on its aviation industry because of difficulties selling the aircraft abroad, Prime Minister Francois Fillon said on Monday.

France delivered its 100th Rafale plane this summer and production is due to stop in 2021 if no new order materialises. Fillon's comments followed those of Defence Minister Gerard Longuet, who repeated last week that production would stop at 180 aircraft ordered for the French armed forces if France failed to find an export buyer.

India is expected to decide within weeks between the Rafale and the Eurofighter in a major contest for 126 aircraft. The four-nation Eurofighter is made by EADS on behalf of Germany and Spain, BAE Systems for Britain and Finmeccanica.

"France does not want to export the Rafale as one might export a simple machine," Fillon told members of the army and air force at the St. Dizier air base east of Paris. "It wants long-term partners to share, with any interested country, a technological ambition, an industrial ambition and a strategic ambition."The French government was determined to deepen its competence in the field of aviation, and looked to Brazil, the United Arab Emirates and India as strategic partners with whom to develop a long-term relationship, he added.

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 13 Dec 2011 21:38

Japan "likely to pick F-35 fighter" this week

The government will choose between two U.S. models -- the F-35 and the Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornet -- and Europe's four-nation Eurofighter Typhoon...

...The F-35 or Joint Strike Fighter, the most expensive of the three, leads the others due to its "overwhelmingly superior performance" and stealth capabilities...

...Fielding the F-35 would put Japan a step ahead of China.

rajanb · Post by **rajanb** » 14 Dec 2011 10:54

shukla wrote:MMRCA procurement at contract negotiations stage: Antony

Msn News

New Delhi, Dec 12 (PTI) The final cost of procurement of 126 Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft (M-MRCA) for the Indian Air Force would be known after completion of negotiations and finalisation of the contract, the government told the Lok Sabha today.

In written reply to a question in the lower house, Defence Minister A K Antony said, "The proposal is now at the contract negotiations stage, and the final cost of procurement would be known only after completion of negotiations and finalisation of the contract."
He said the Defence Acquisitions Council had accorded Acceptance of Necessity for procurement of 126 M-MRCA at an estimated cost of Rs 42,000 crore in June 2007.

Replying to a query related to offset proposal of the contract, he said, "As per Defence Procurement Procedure (DPP) 2006 these (offset) relate to direct purchase of defence products or services or direct investments with Indian offset partners as per the stipulated guidelines."

This is what, as a vendor, I used to call the "sudden death" round. Final price chaps, and may the lowest man win!

Definitely crossing the t's and dotting the i's and asking the vendor to plug in the final price! Should be a rather complicated exercise. Let us hope it ends before 31st Dece 2011!

Kartik · Post by **Kartik** » 14 Dec 2011 11:15

Victor wrote:Japan "likely to pick F-35 fighter" this week

The government will choose between two U.S. models -- the F-35 and the Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornet -- and Europe's four-nation Eurofighter Typhoon...

...The F-35 or Joint Strike Fighter, the most expensive of the three, leads the others due to its "overwhelmingly superior performance" and stealth capabilities...

...Fielding the F-35 would put Japan a step ahead of China.

Funny how they can say that it has "overwhelmingly superior performance" when it hasn't yet even undergone its high AoA tests..cross-posting from an article I posted on the LCA thread..

The review also found three areas where major problems are "likely", but have not yet been fully studied in ground or flight tests. These include sharp buffeting at high angles of attack, the discovery of more life-limited parts and the minimal tests completed.

a purely paper evaluation is enough for the JASDF it seems and the snug belief that what's good enough for the USAF will be good enough for them as well. A true ally urf munna. Eurofighter read this wrong by thinking that offering much higher ToT would swing the deal in their favour- the Japanese are too dependant on the US to do what India did.
Dassault read the tea leaves better and wisely kept away lest they get the tag of losing another competition (which should now be attached to the Typhoon and Shornet)

$1 billion will be apparently spent on the F-35 assembly line and given the US' restrictions on tech transfer for fighter programs, it may be of very limited use for the Japanese ATD-X Shinsin. I don't think that the cost of setting up the assembly line for the MRCA is being included in the cost being thrown around. Even for the Mirage-2000 upgrade the cost of setting up the upgrade facilities was reportedly $500 million to be spent by HAL.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 14 Dec 2011 20:01

Is it December now? Wasn't the MMRCA selection going to be announced in December?

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 14 Dec 2011 21:30

shiv wrote:Is it December now? Wasn't the MMRCA selection going to be announced in December?

Wait till 31st of this month , then we can rant.

Boreas · Post by **Boreas** » 14 Dec 2011 22:15

shiv wrote:Is it December now? Wasn't the MMRCA selection going to be announced in December?

everlasting fame of IST (india standard time) prevails

saptarishi · Post by **saptarishi** » 14 Dec 2011 22:16

i am not bothered about mmrca,i am bothered about the attrition rate of the air force.still can't get over the fact that a sukhoi crashed.it is very painful to see my favourite bird go down.

, it is very hurting to see a sukhoi crash. very painful . mmrca result will be out soon thats for sure. don't know but i am going through a very depressing phase after the sukhoi crash. if this attrition rate continues then how will iaf maintain the sanctioned strength. but still may the best jet win.i hope its rafale

jai · Post by **jai** » 15 Dec 2011 00:28

Austin wrote:
shiv wrote:Is it December now? Wasn't the MMRCA selection going to be announced in December?
Wait till 31st of this month , then we can rant.

No telling if the chanikiyan MOD will ask the two to re- re submit their bids again, valid till April 12' to further squeeze the lime. The circus may go on awhile yet !

member_21286 · Post by **member_21286** » 15 Dec 2011 01:15

Aerospace Industry purchases likely to be worth $35 billion
http://profit.ndtv.com/News/Article/aer ... ion-293933
PTI, 12 Dec 2011 | 08:04 PM

Vivek Rae, Director General (Acquisitions) under the Defence Ministry said Indian companies will get at least $10 billion worth of defence contracts under 'offset clause' that mandates any foreign company which secures Indian defence contract should outsource 30 per cent of the contract to Indian firms.
"Indian aerospace industry will be making purchases worth $35 billion over the next ten years. Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft purchase itself will be about $15 billion," Rae told PTI on the sidelines of a seminar at Indian School of Business.

Wow! From Rs. 42,000 crore originally ($10.2bn on Aug. 28 2007) it is now "$15bn" (Rs. 61,500 crore @ the same date and Rs. 81,350 crore today).
If we only take into account the conversion rate of Aug. 28 2007, this is an increase of 46 pct.
So the estimated max. unit cost of each of these 126 a/c ('fly away' cost, of course) would be comprised between $81mn (for a deal of $10bn @ Aug. 2007 value) and $119mn (for a deal of $15bn @ Aug. 2007 value), theoretically.

Do you remember the first tanker RfP for which Fin.Min. said "no guys, sorry, but try again" ? At that time, the selected offer (A330 MRTT) was largely more expensive (nearly 60pct) than the allowed envelope... Could that happen again with the MMRCA?

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 15 Dec 2011 02:29

IAF chief said in about 4 weeks they will wrap it up, and that was on Nov 18. That means no more than Dec 20 one could wait to hear the news. If it takes more than that, we jingoes will feel bad! naat goood for the chief to cheat us.

PratikDas · Post by **PratikDas** » 15 Dec 2011 03:30

But is it the Chief's decision any long?

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 15 Dec 2011 03:50

IMHO, he is chief enough to be part of decision maker. Based on the last news report, the chief said so!.. so expecting him to be so important person to say anything like that.

He has the power to inform about the decision to public, and at the same time even if MoD decides on a particular platform, the chief can force decisions based on what he wants for the IAF.

He is da man!

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 15 Dec 2011 04:35

Kartik wrote:Japanese are too dependant on the US to do what India did

We are much more dependent on outsiders than the Japanese are and they are not forced to buy only from unkil. They may choose to do so when they believe unkil's weapons are the best available, which is most of the time. Even Bharat Karnad said we would have chosen the JSF if the yanks had offered it to us to begin with, but of course it was more important to follow our patentable "downselect process" no matter what. I believe it is a major mistake not to get the JSF, not instead of the MMRCA but on top of it, and will continue to believe it until someone can convince me that the PAKFA is better and, more important, will come for sure when we hope it will. I can't make that leap of faith today. The MMRCA project is a decade too late and unforeseen events have overtaken us but since we are already in the hole, I hope we get at least 2 squadrons of the Rafale on loaner next year till our first squadrons arrive in 2015.

The Japanese are dependent on the US only for the nuclear umbrella and that too, only as long as they choose to remain a non-nuclear country and a non-exporter of weapons. Tech-wise for the Japanese, it may be the other way around in several areas, namely miniaturization, robotics, electronics, optics and metallurgy. Once given the go-ahead, their economy and private industry will ramp up rapidly to catch up with the leading edge. They have the underlying tech and capability but need to keep their airplane mfg infrastructure intact, oiled and ready, no matter what the cost. As long as unkil footed the bill for the guns, they were happy to focus on consumer tech but this may be changing. 100-year old companies like Kawasaki, Kawanishi, Mitsubishi and Nakajima are still around today because of this.

The expensive JSF choice is only because they have determined that the threat from the J-20 is very credible and more urgent than their own stealth program can handle. Otherwise, their F-15s are good enough for any other threat. The Japanese are far too intelligent and pragmatic to adopt what is being made out to be a half-baked joke of an airplane and to shackle their aircraft industry to it. I have a feeling that unkil is intentionally doing what we did with our Su30mki's at Red Flag--play dumb. The reality is that the JSF is very far ahead and a complete air force, not just one airplane. Most of us still don't get what this means.

MarcH · Post by **MarcH** » 15 Dec 2011 05:43

Oh yes, the wonderful JSF. Bill Sweetman reports about the programme status:

http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/blogs/de ... d=blogDest

We are much more dependent on outsiders than the Japanese are and they are not forced to buy only from unkil.

Oh really ? Or maybe the roughly 50.000 US troops on Japanese soil have something to do with Japanese procurement decisions ?

nash · Post by **nash** » 15 Dec 2011 07:08

I would say mid of next week we will know who is/are the winner(s)...

Kartik · Post by **Kartik** » 15 Dec 2011 07:57

MarcH wrote:Oh yes, the wonderful JSF. Bill Sweetman reports about the programme status:

http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/blogs/de ... d=blogDest

We are much more dependent on outsiders than the Japanese are and they are not forced to buy only from unkil.
Oh really ? Or maybe the roughly 50.000 US troops on Japanese soil have something to do with Japanese procurement decisions ?

Thanks for that link MarcH..lays to rest any arguments about the F-35 being ready for India in the timeframe that we need the MRCA in.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 15 Dec 2011 08:11

Eurofighter loses out in Oman. Pity. I expected Oman to wait till the Indian choice became public. Was hoping the EF's fortunes would improve there if India ordered it, given our relatively close ties with Oman.

Omani F-16 win delivers blow for Eurofighter

Oman has placed a surprise follow-on order with Lockheed Martin for a second batch of 12 F-16C/D Block 50 fighters, with the development appearing to have ended the UK's hopes of selling Eurofighter Typhoons to the nation.

Announcing the deal in a 14 December contract notification, the US Department of Defense said Muscat will acquire 10 single-seat fighters and a pair of two-seat trainers under a deal worth $600 million. These will join eight and four of the respective types already in service with the Royal Air Force of Oman.

Its still a sensible decision though, since they already operate F-16s and are home to two US air bases and one naval air base.

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 15 Dec 2011 08:19

Kartik wrote:..lays to rest any arguments about the F-35 being ready for India in the timeframe that we need the MRCA in.

Although the F-35 will be available to us (if we want it) in the "MRCA time frame" of 2015-2021, I don't support it replacing the MRCA but supplementing it with maybe 2 squadrons.

In the meantime....

Top 10 US arms buyers 2011

1. 5.4 billion - Afghanistan
2. 4.9 billion - Taiwan
3. 4.5 billion - India
4. 3.9 billion - Australia
5. 3.5 billion - Saudi Arabia
6. 2.0 billion - Iraq
7. 1.5 billion - UAE
8. 1.4 billion - Israel
9. 0.5 billion - Japan
10. 0.5 billion - Sweden

Something tells me we may be number 1 in 2012 after doubling up on everything we bought this year and then some.

Kartik · Post by **Kartik** » 15 Dec 2011 09:33

Viv S wrote:Eurofighter loses out in Oman. Pity. I expected Oman to wait till the Indian choice became public. Was hoping the EF's fortunes would improve there if India ordered it, given our relatively close ties with Oman.

Omani F-16 win delivers blow for Eurofighter

Oman has placed a surprise follow-on order with Lockheed Martin for a second batch of 12 F-16C/D Block 50 fighters, with the development appearing to have ended the UK's hopes of selling Eurofighter Typhoons to the nation.

Announcing the deal in a 14 December contract notification, the US Department of Defense said Muscat will acquire 10 single-seat fighters and a pair of two-seat trainers under a deal worth $600 million. These will join eight and four of the respective types already in service with the Royal Air Force of Oman.

Its still a sensible decision though, since they already operate F-16s and are home to two US air bases and one naval air base.

That makes it 2 losses for the Typhoon within 1 week and 3 within a month (if we include the Swiss loss) ! We'll hear about the F-35's official selection by this weekend and now the Omani F-16 buy..Just how much now hinges on India's selection becomes clearer. the Contract Negotiation Committee must try to extract as much as possible when the contract negotiations begin, since both vendors must be getting pretty desperate for an export sale now.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 15 Dec 2011 12:37

VVctor,for JSF status and woes,check into the Turkey or talisman thread.

Will · Post by **Will** » 15 Dec 2011 16:20

Looks like the IAF and the MOD is in no mood to give either the EF consortium or Dassault a Christmas gift. I think they are bent on reinventing the zero the way the calculations are going on

rajanb · Post by **rajanb** » 15 Dec 2011 16:23

As the duchess said to the bishop; "its all about money, honey"

Kersi D · Post by **Kersi D** » 15 Dec 2011 20:10

Victor wrote:
Kartik wrote:..lays to rest any arguments about the F-35 being ready for India in the timeframe that we need the MRCA in.
Although the F-35 will be available to us (if we want it) in the "MRCA time frame" of 2015-2021, I don't support it replacing the MRCA but supplementing it with maybe 2 squadrons.

In the meantime....

Top 10 US arms buyers 2011

1. 5.4 billion - Afghanistan
2. 4.9 billion - Taiwan
3. 4.5 billion - India
4. 3.9 billion - Australia
5. 3.5 billion - Saudi Arabia
6. 2.0 billion - Iraq
7. 1.5 billion - UAE
8. 1.4 billion - Israel
9. 0.5 billion - Japan
10. 0.5 billion - Sweden

Something tells me we may be number 1 in 2012 after doubling up on everything we bought this year and then some.

WHERE IS OUR ~~FIENDLY~~ FRIENDLY NEIGHBOUR PAKISTAN ?