JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

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shiv
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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Postby shiv » 20 Dec 2011 17:09

Neela wrote:
Any person working in today's chip industry will laugh at this kind 200%+ change in specs. In the consumer segment, this kind of delays(130 ms as opposed to 40ms) will make the customer walk out of the company within seconds and you probably have lost the customer forever!


Neela some years ago I personally rejected equipment used for keyhole surgery because of a lag of something like 150 msec. That is simply too long. The other things that is missed in the confidence that it will be set right is that setting it right will take time. All this becomes "understandable" if it is the US. Weird innit?

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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Postby Badar » 20 Dec 2011 17:55

Regarding JSF it can be judged upon three different criteria: (1) Military, (2) Economic and (3) Geopolitical.

It is fairly certain that whatever its current difficulties are, the F-35A and F-35C will be reasonably effective military machines and a large number of clients will be fairly happy with it, even though they can no longer purchase it in numbers nor will it be a 5-- gen capable of handling 4++ adversaries.

The economics of the program is already lost, it was supposed to be a 'affordable' fighter. It certainly won't be, this is the aspect that can lead to a death spiral and causes the whole program to unravel (some say this has already began).

The third is the geopolitical aspect, the failure of the JSF program with no real US alternatives (teens aren't, shornet will be a stopgap) will spread shock waves in the large number of US client/wannabe client states. The US can't afford this as it will open a can of worms leading to the captive market seriously looking to non-US sources for procurement of big ticket defense items. This aspect will most likely result in the F-35 being forced to be success (if necessary by redrawing requirements).

So yeah, the JSF probably won't fail like Comanche, or Crusader or FCS. But will its "success" look like the F-22 or Seawolf or the Zumwalt? Or will it be both a catastrophic failure as well as a passable success like the F-111? Or maybe an F-104; it worked in a fashion, but nobody really loved it.

I would like to second Victor on the mature industry remark and yes Shiv the US, Russian and Chinese defense industry inspires a hell of a lot more confidence than the Indian industry does. My father had very little faith that the Indian cricket team would win series abroad regularly, but I am looking forward to the Australian summer with anticipation. 2012 Olympics? I am a mirror image of my father. US, Russia and China will be collecting golds by the spadeful.

We were laughing and pointing at the dinky little Q-5s even as we were importing and manufacturing the elegant Jaguars. While we were getting the versatile M2Ks the Chinese were getting the lumbering JH-7s. Now we are struggling to induct the "just so" LCA and the Chinese are getting "good enough" J-10s in large numbers. Today we are reduced to inserting coins in the Russian Defense Establishment and pulling on the one arm bandit to see what comes out with the label FGFA. The grass is a lot greener on the other side - the J-20 might not be as good as F-22 or PAK-FA, the but J-20B will be close.

Why did this happen? The Chinese have invested in a two track induction stream for a long while now; one local and one foreign. For every one of the Type-51C they induct a Type-52C. For every J-11 purchase there will be a J-10. The net result is that the Army is largely supplied indigenously, the Navy and Air Force are getting there. They lived for a couple of mil acquisition generations with inferior stuff while their industrial base was exercised and worked up. With the '78 reforms money started coming in, and with the '89 incident enforced local development.

Most generals will want the best kit they can get irrespective of the source. The govt has to walk the plank and balance the needs of long term industrial development vs immediate term readiness. The cartoon someone posted above about "open wide" needs to be redone with the IAF/IA on the receiving end of a heap full of LCA/Arjun etc. We can still do it, we still have a generation or so of "safe" time. We have outclassed Pakistan and China has not yet outclassed us, but is getting there. We can afford to have a two track force in the interim - the first echelon best in class force supported by the second echelon steadily improving local built stuff or mixes thereof. Couple of generations of large scale use of indian stuff and spiral improvements will work magic. Otherwise LCA is a Marut redux.

And as for the large number of people enamored by the current American formulas who declaim that nothing government run (OFB, DRDO etc) can match the private sector has some explaining to do regarding the existence of Chinese J-20s and the Type.99, Type.52C et al. If the answer is 'but the Chinese tech is all stolen, all stolen I tell you', my rebuttal is why aren't we running a similar Manhattan Project of industrial espionage? Chinese steal W88 design data while we talk about buying 100 EF and 100 Rafales to 'please' all the major players in Europe and get some screw driver tech? WTF??!!

Sorry about the misplaced rant, perhaps it should go in some other thread.

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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Postby shiv » 20 Dec 2011 19:52

Badar wrote:I would like to second Victor on the mature industry remark and yes Shiv the US, Russian and Chinese defense industry inspires a hell of a lot more confidence than the Indian industry does.


Badar we are all in agreement that a large number of Indians are less confident in Indian industry and more confident in non Indian industry. In fact the confidence levels in a lot of other Indian entities and products is low among Indians. I think that is an observation that I have made and remarked upon repeatedly. Absolutely no disagreement on those grounds. The support that Victor's statement and yours have given to my observations is valuable, so I need not doubt my own observations as being biased. (That was a worry I had, but no more) 8)

The reasons for that lack of confidence in Indian things ranges from the simplest and most obvious explanation - that Indians really are incompetent bums to more and more far fetched explanations. But very few Indians agree that they are themselves incompetent, or even that most Indians in general may be incompetent/incapable as a people. When asked why Indian products do not inspire confidence if every individual Indian is so competent, the answers start looking less credible to me. No Indian admits to personal incompetence. The poor quality, delays, excuses are always someone else, some other Indians, some other factor. It's never me. It's always him. I am never responsible for poor Indian quality. My personal record stands for itself, even more so when my competence is recognised in a foreign country and reflects in my job, status and letters after my name. There is a huge gap between Indian incompetence and every Indian's personal competence that I am trying to bridge. Somebody somewhere is either mistaken or bluffing.

That is just another observation that I have made. :rotfl: Waiting for multiple corroboration about that. That's all. Sorry to go OT.

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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Postby Badar » 20 Dec 2011 23:31

Shiv, for the record the rant wasn't directed at you. Something which you said, and which we both agree on BTW, just triggered it. (IOW, Don't ban me bro :) )

As you well know you cannot build up technologies like defense or semiconductor in a garage even if you have the intellect of an Einstein and the business acumen of a Gates as well as money to burn for a good cause like a Tata. Immense resources beyond the scale of individuals/mega-corporations have to be invested into a given sector and you have to wait patiently for 20-25 years for the fruits to start bearing. Individual talent will not translate into national excellence by itself. If a talented individual is transplanted into an ecosystem which has already "arrived" he will naturally thrive and be fruitful.

There are a few problems in India, first is resources are very very scarce. Between fighting poverty and fighting Chinese, the Chinese decidedly take the second place. This has not been true for countries like China - or as an extreme example - North Korea: Got the bomb, got the missiles and all they got to show for that was 2 million starvation deaths. Because we enjoy an answerable political leadership who would be strung to the nearest pole if they actually attempted to "make us eat grass for the bum", we won't be as good at investing resources on a national scale like the Chinese do. This is more a blessing than a curse and we will have to live with it.

Second we need to support the adolescent stages of the defense industry, and I don't see us do it. We have the LCA, its not a world beater, far from it. It might cost more, and be less capable than, say a Gripen. But it has one advantage a girpen doesn't have - it is made in India. The armed forces cannot issue requests for an MBT and then compare Arjun with a T-90 or a Leopard and expect it to beat it in all aspects for a purchase to materialize. Unless we purchase and gain operating experience and request refinements and make sure we make continual improvement LCA/Arjun et al will end up like the Marut - a dead end. There is a significant danger of that happening atleast on a system scale if not the particular subsystems.

If the forces had had a choice we would have had screw-driver tech, ToT offsets etc along with ... Iskanders! Because we couldn't we had to have the fairly lousy Prithvi. But then soon enough came along Prithvi II, Agni I and II and III and IV and shaurya and sagarika and what not. Forces need to understand that the first indigeneous 155mm gun would be as liable to kill the operator as the enemy. But it wont stay that way for long.

We need a version of the 'Buy American Act' which forces the services to purchase a sizable fraction in-house to foster growth of local industries. We have to do it now as in another 20 years Russia will have largely evaporated as a source of hight tech (the paucity of investment since the FSU will start showing up in the next decade), and where Europe will be is a question mark. If we hold the current course the alternatives will be to be a US lackey industrially or be outclassed by China. Or we invest now, take some readiness hits by inducting less than the best "Made by GoI" gear andl ensure we will be up for the challenge in the coming decades.

To ensure DRDO et al don't sit on their asses because they have a captive market due to "Buy India Policy" invest in redundancy. If ADA had to compete with BADA (Badar's ADA) for over all design as well as subsystem design things would move a lot faster. You waste a lot of money (point one raises its head again) in duplication of capability, but it pays itself off in the long term by fostering competition. HAL doesn't make things well or fast enough? BHAL will do so. You don't need free market to keep things competitive - Russia, China manage with competing design bureau and manufacturing establishments.

TL;DR version: first product excellence and only then purchase doesn't work for local industry. Talking of making Indian products 'world class' by involving L&T and Tata etc so that services will buy is bass-ackwards.

PS: Shiv, one of these days someone will really give you a hemlock.

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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Postby Victor » 21 Dec 2011 01:08

Shiv wrote:..a large number of Indians are less confident in Indian industry and more confident in non Indian industry..

Don't know what repeating such a broad brush statement accomplishes but it is as true as the "eeslum is a region of piece" statement. Yes, a "large number" of Indians may be that way as are a "large number" of Americans who don't like the JSF, but most Indians as far as I can see are very confident of India's space industry, info tech industry, auto industry, atomic power industry, film industry because they have been repeatedly successful over time. They are not confident in the ability of "Indian industry" to produce guns and planes because they have been repeatedly unsuccessful over time. This is a human trait, not a uniquely Indian trait. The constructive thing to do is try to figure out why these industries are successful or not. The fault may not automatically lie in a given industry's lack of "success" according to a preset definition. The linkage or lack thereof between personal and group competence is likewise a human trait, not uniqely Indian.

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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Postby shiv » 21 Dec 2011 06:40

Victor wrote: They are not confident in the ability of "Indian industry" to produce guns and planes because they have been repeatedly unsuccessful over time. This is a human trait, not a uniquely Indian trait.


I agree that it appears to some people, you among others, that it is a human trait to believe that Indian Industry is worse than others. Every one in the world, led by Indians, seems to agree with that view of Indian industry. Everyone thinks his product is the best, except for Indians, who think others products are better. The human trait breaks down when you find that Americans, for instance, don't necessarily think that Chinese stuff is better than their own. So this "human trait" business is, frankly, nonsense.

Indian Industry has been producing guns and planes for 50 years plus now and a noteworthy number of Indians come on to Bharat Rakshak forums and decry Indian inability to make guns and planes. People have spent careers flying them or fighting with them, and wars have been won. And you think this is a human trait to decry their Indian origin in one long never ending caterwaul? I think this is an Indian trait. Not a human trait. "All humans feel this way. So lets find what wrong with Indian industry" is what you are saying. If it is a human trait why is it that Indian industry is worse than industries in other nations?

Beyond this I am going to shift what I want to say to another thread. I have nothing against your views or your right to hold them. But your generalization about all humans is an even bigger generalization than mine.

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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Postby Victor » 21 Dec 2011 06:56

..it appears to some people, you among others, that it is a human trait to believe that Indian Industry is worse than others..

You are twisting my words out of context to suit whatever your agenda is but let me correct you again. Your statement above is not true and you know it. But I'll let you have the last word if you're so inclined. It's not important to me and I respect your contributions to BR too much.

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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Postby shiv » 21 Dec 2011 07:01

Victor wrote:
..it appears to some people, you among others, that it is a human trait to believe that Indian Industry is worse than others..

You are twisting my words out of context to suit whatever your agenda is but let me correct you again. Your statement above is not true and you know it. But I'll let you have the last word if you're so inclined. It's not important to me and I respect your contributions to BR too much.


Victor I sincerely apologise if I have caused you any hurt. I did not mean it that way and will say no more on here. But there is a problem that lies somewhere in between "competent Indians" and "incompetent Indian industry"

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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Postby member_20067 » 21 Dec 2011 07:46

shiv wrote:
Victor wrote: They are not confident in the ability of "Indian industry" to produce guns and planes because they have been repeatedly unsuccessful over time. This is a human trait, not a uniquely Indian trait.


I agree that it appears to some people, you among others, that it is a human trait to believe that Indian Industry is worse than others. Every one in the world, led by Indians, seems to agree with that view of Indian industry. Everyone thinks his product is the best, except for Indians, who think others products are better. The human trait breaks down when you find that Americans, for instance, don't necessarily think that Chinese stuff is better than their own. So this "human trait" business is, frankly, nonsense.


The global perception about a country's ability to produce any product is driven by export.... and persistent quality.....
case for example Americans do believe the Detroit makes bummer products compared to Germany in the luxury segment and Japanese in the mass segment...there is an overwhelming consensus within general American population about it.........

Likewise Americans also have consensus that Chinese products sucks and compete only on pricing ................this is a feeling which is also shared by most Indians about Chinese products..that's why if you see ever growing "china market" in every corner of India... those are primarily catering to low income group as higher income groups do buy Indian still.......

Most of the us ... who has interest in Defense and follow it closely are on average top 5% of the population in terms of education and exposure to other countries and culture.. that's why we want to see more and feel like we are failing ---this has become more apparent with internet and easy access of information... (wikis and all...) ..there is no shame in my humble opinion in being critical about lack of ability in certain areas... gun making... and aircraft production definitely tops the list... we never as a country had a culture of gun or crossing the frontiers (vast hinterlands) through easy means... Aircraft ----etc)....quality gun making is almost a fine arts in USA with specialized boutiques ... making high quality replicas of civil war rifles to more sophisticated stuff... there are hundreds of shooting ranges in USA... there are many reality show around marksmanship...same for airplane enthusiasm ... many many small airports.. private planes etc.. everything works together to create the culture of investment and innovation....... it does not come by mugging and cracking JEE or IIT........

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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Postby Singha » 21 Dec 2011 08:10

the chinese have a lead in civilian and military rockets - they make them more types, bigger and further along the curve.
the scale of their commercial shipbuilding and subsequent absorption of tech has rubbed off on military side shipbuilding too - both in ships and submarines.
they were more farsighted in recruiting Rus and Ukr scientists in early 90s onward to give their projects a push
they have reportedly a more sophisticated industrial espionage setup
the bigger FDI in manufacturing gives them ample scope to absorb technology, steal IP and also develop a strong back end supply chain for components that can be used in mil products as well...take any moulded plastic part - china and soko dominate that field. buy a fish aquarium- the indic ones will be slabs of glass glued together, the chini/korean ones will be sleek moulded ones with integral lights, filters and heaters....the lack of sophistication in the bottom 75% of our industry shows starkly...it cannot be hidden and has no goods worthy of export that can compete worldwide....SME's cannot compete with 24x7 plants that employ 10,000 people, work for 10 MNCs to build 40 products on demand and with MNC QC checkpoints. yet we still keep pining for the utopia of "cottage industries" and "handicrafts" - the world has moved on...these might find some niche market in developed countries but nowhere in the mass market worldwide.

what I feel is some of the areas in which we lag are not due to intent, but because the overall economy was/is not competent enough to produce it. GOI run facilities can only do so much....if the economic base is lacking we struggle to complete the large projects like tanks or planes which demand inputs from 100s of areas. the economic base in areas like engines, advanced materials, optronics (not a single indian co makes consumer cameras or camcorders and barely a few make medical imaging eqpt maybe), semiconductors is still lacking behind even middle rung players of the South Korea or Sweden type.

only economic growth and investment can fill these gaps broadly, though special 'national projects' might deliver some targeted products like missiles or sensors....the vast depth x width of products can only come from a advanced economy.

with GOI spending cycles on how to deliver rice @ 3kg and vote banking, I hope it happens someday.

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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Postby manum » 21 Dec 2011 09:02

Its much more possible to do things in India than anywhere else...because institutions in India are much more loose, and they allow you develop your own ideology, one way I am trying to say an Individual can turn himself into an institution. Which used to happen in old time...like german designer doing Marut....or kalam steering missile program...
I find it highly ignorant to underestimate lack of will to join dog race to incapabity...China is not an example, its a false facade.

Its easy to be an excellent individual in India than being lumbring group of them...people don't realize it...
They loose that potential by being an eternal critique...

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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Postby tejas » 21 Dec 2011 09:04

^^^ As usual, extremely well said GD. I only hope I live long enough to witness this in my lifetime.

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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Postby member_20067 » 21 Dec 2011 09:32

]Its much more possible to do things in India than anywhere else...because institutions in India are much more loose, and they allow you develop your own ideology, one way I am trying to say an Individual can turn himself into an institution. Which used to happen in old time...like german designer doing Marut....or kalam steering missile program...
.


going by my personal experience.... the bold section of the quote is probably farthest from the truth.... Indian academic regime is the most inflexible one in-terms of encouraging innovation .. entrepreneurship...as a society we value a job much more than someone trying out something new....there are rare exception incubation labs here and there.. but exception are not norms..

on a different not.. what wrong can someone possibly see in China sending humans in space or having developed cryogenic technology through whatever means.... I personally really don't think that matter much in a bigger strategic vision... American rocket and missiles system foundation were done primarily by german engineers post ww2..... have not we rejoiced when Arihant got launched..it is an open fact that scores of russian engineers are recruited for the project. this whole idea of summarily rejecting the achievement of your enemy is kind of strange... China has superior missile and rocket technology .. .it is a fact and we have to live with it.. ...

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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Postby gakakkad » 21 Dec 2011 09:52

Prithwiraj wrote:
]Its much more possible to do things in India than anywhere else...because institutions in India are much more loose, and they allow you develop your own ideology, one way I am trying to say an Individual can turn himself into an institution. Which used to happen in old time...like german designer doing Marut....or kalam steering missile program...
.


going by my personal experience.... the bold section of the quote is probably farthest from the truth.... Indian academic regime is the most inflexible one in-terms of encouraging innovation .. entrepreneurship...as a society we value a job much more than someone trying out something new....there are rare exception incubation labs here and there.. but exception are not norms.... what wrong can someone possibly see in China sending humans in space or having developed cryogenic engines through whatever means.... I personally really don't think that matter much in a bigger strategic vision... American rocket and missiles system foundation were done primarily by german engineers post ww2


IMHO ,both of you are right and wrong at the same time. As far as PRC is concerned , they have extremely inflexible academic structure and limited innovation capability. The biggest problem they have is lack of honesty . The same paper will be published in 10 different journals by different authors with unbelievable data .They are mainly photochors .(who isn't) . There is a lot of high end innovation in various places in India. But their are a lot of constrains .

Singha's opinion is perfectly true. The problem is lack of industrial base and infra constrains. Innovation can only happen if industry and infra are in place. Problem is that are government wants to destroy industry and make India the fiefdom of Gandhi family.

In the last decade or so , their have been huge changes however .I have been coming here since I was a school kid. Now I am a doctor about to join fellowship in cardiology .that is 12-13 long years. Back in those days we were crying about the baaki f-16s and Indian lack of everything . Economy was nowhere the present scale . Agni and pritvi were failing in test fires. even our night vision were defective. Unkil was attempting to prevent cryogenic engine delivered to us for ISRO. 12 Years fast forward and we have a range of missiles , ICBM is about to be launched., we are crying about the nitty gritty's of advanced sensors and seeker technology. We are about to induct indigenous awacs. Our present industrial base is much bigger than what our entire GDP was in 1999. We have finished a mission to the moon and found traces of water their . We are about to be the forth space agency to send a robot to a celestial body . We are about to have 3 launching platforms for heavy and medium payload in Geostationary transfer orbit. We have our own crygenic engine . Nuclear submarines etc. that is a lot of change indeed for a mere decade.

My only worry is the CON party nullifying it in a single shot.


Edited for grammar.
Last edited by gakakkad on 21 Dec 2011 09:57, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Postby manum » 21 Dec 2011 09:53

surfacially everything about India is lacking...so don't go by constructing what you see, as conclusions...When you'll have to do you'll realize there are so many unofficial channels through which one gathers...

Knowledge about things is about exercising many options which are not so apparent in books or we don't see it due to lack of vision or experience of doing it repeatedly...But what we need most is people who know everything is possible, people who lighter in head...but they are aware about the environment and materials which surrounds them...

I don't think there is degree beyond which you learn in Institutes...being inflexible or flexible are subjective, I don't think they stop you from learning from other sources.

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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Postby gakakkad » 21 Dec 2011 10:01

^^ personal experience- there were aspects I found the Indian colleges to be more flexible than Khanate ones. That is not the norm of course. But its not that all is wrong in India. In my field , the publcations of Indian researchers are lest dishonest than western ones . Everyone lies , but Indians lie lesser . The innovation that comes from India is far better than PRC. That I can assure you. PRC should not be a benchmark for us. If PRC is a benchmark , we are setting pretty low standards.

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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Postby manum » 21 Dec 2011 10:12

I didn't study in best of institute as I was not the best student around...but institute I studied had few excellent people, who had the capability to deal with students on case by case basis...They were never happy with your work ...We never won, the best work a lot of time never got best marks, though popular between fellow mates...

This is all I wanted...That life goes on, winning or not we gotta do our best to keep everything around us clean and competitive...I was a young mind when I went to institute, They never told me in text books to hail "kim jong il" as absolute truth...I was free to try and be a looser with lesser price to be paid...

Education should be improved to a great extent...but it must borrow few things from existing setup as well...

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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Postby member_20067 » 21 Dec 2011 10:45

In the last decade or so , their have been huge changes however .I have been coming here since I was a school kid. Now I am a doctor about to join fellowship in cardiology .that is 12-13 long years. Back in those days we were crying about the baaki f-16s and Indian lack of everything . Economy was nowhere the present scale . Agni and pritvi were failing in test fires. even our night vision were defective. Unkil was attempting to prevent cryogenic engine delivered to us for ISRO. 12 Years fast forward and we have a range of missiles , ICBM is about to be launched., we are crying about the nitty gritty's of advanced sensors and seeker technology. We are about to induct indigenous awacs. Our present industrial base is much bigger than what our entire GDP was in 1999. We have finished a mission to the moon and found traces of water their . We are about to be the forth space agency to send a robot to a celestial body . We are about to have 3 launching platforms for heavy and medium payload in Geostationary transfer orbit. We have our own crygenic engine . Nuclear submarines etc. that is a lot of change indeed for a mere decade.

My only worry is the CON party nullifying it in a single shot.



Apparently today's twin prithvi launched is a grand failure... you perhaps jinxed it.. :(

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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Postby Philip » 21 Dec 2011 13:44

I am amazed at the overwhelming confidence in in non-americans over the JSF "succeeding",simply because of US "willpower"! Here is a recent AWST (Mov 28th/11) issue on "Aftershocks",the US budget cuts ($1.2 trillion cuts expected)controversies and the fact that the fattest "turkey" of them all in the Def. budget ,("biggest programme makes for biggest target") the JSF might be culled!
The stark facts..."the Pentagon and the program's leadership have yet to produce firm guarantees about the JSF's initial IOC dates,as well as procurement and support costs".

There you have it,my crystal ball would be as good a prophet regarding JSF dates of induction,as I've posted ad nauseum,the number of new technological challenges bedeviling it are increasing by the day,delaying IOC year after year and giving the manufacturers no clue as to how much it will eventualy cost. This has resulted in a stampede by "allies" who were roped in to reduce costs to do the opposite,cancel their options for the JSF barring the Japanese who desperaterly want some 5th-gen "elixir",to juice up their "6th-gen sake" for their next home designed fighter two decades hence. "Individually,none of the 8 nations who have signed up for the JSF will take even 5% of the production run"!

So you have a range of "Super Options" as AWST calls it ,involving upgrades of all its existing legacy 4th-gen aircraft in service with it and is allies,namely the F-18SF (international version),F-16s,F-15 SEs,to tempt US allies who had earlier climbed onto the JSF's bandwagon.Some of them might even desert US wares and plump for the two 4++Eurocanards just as India is doing. How ironic!

The report goes on with the details of alternative options in case the JSF is truly "cooked" this festive season.Wait and watch.There is definitely going to be "turkey" on this year's Christmas menu!

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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Postby VinayG » 21 Dec 2011 14:16

Prithwiraj wrote:
Apparently today's twin prithvi launched is a grand failure... you perhaps jinxed it.. :(


the missile is not even launched its only postponed due to a technical snag," ITR director SP Dash told PTI, adding that the date for future trial would be decided after correcting the problem

Twin test of Prithvi-II postponed: ITR director

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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Postby Badar » 21 Dec 2011 15:04

VinayG wrote:the missile is not even launched its only postponed due to a technical snag," ITR director SP Dash told PTI, adding that the date for future trial would be decided after correcting the problem

Twin test of Prithvi-II postponed: ITR director


Could be two reasons, one is snag in the test range/instrumentation etc. Or it could be an issue with the missiles/launcher itself.

PM to CDS "Please carry out immediate strikes against the enemy missile base"
CDS "Sorry sir, missile is down! Kripya do din baad try kijieye".

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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Postby sudhan » 21 Dec 2011 15:48

Badar wrote:
PM to CDS "Please carry out immediate strikes against the enemy missile base"
CDS "Sorry sir, missile is down! Kripya do din baad try kijieye".


:rotfl:

Sirji, at least we have our own user manuals (in Hindi and English, im sure) and whole range of missiles to choose from :) We don need to run to our 'tarrel than mountain' fiends or to NoKo in case of a fizzile..

Sorry for OT

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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Postby member_20453 » 21 Dec 2011 15:57

Philip...

wishful thinking buddy. Lots of noise is being created in order to put pressure on LM to deliver. However, they know it is make or break time. They certainly won't cancel it. They have too many companies, job and many many billions in orders at stake. They have spent way too much to just let it fail. There is much to gain from a successful delivery of the F-35 project. The prospects of over 4000 future orders is too good even for a cash strapped Govt. Without the F-35, the other US jets on offer to international customers will have a tough fight for future orders. F-35's proper completeion assures them of many many orders. Unkil will use political leverage and other tactics to sell it. Now international customers wanting to buy the F-35 brings in confidence. They will give it another chance.

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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Postby Philip » 21 Dec 2011 17:23

Smaller order run perhaps but at what price? Allies have alrady abaindoned ship or STOVL version and may buy very few from earlier numbers like the Brits.

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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Postby gakakkad » 21 Dec 2011 17:41

>> They certainly won't cancel it. They have too many companies, job and many many billions in orders at stake. They have spent way too much to just let it fail..

sure they must not let it fail. They must assure that it is a success. They must showers billions ,no trillions on the project. After all it is their H&D .

>>PM to CDS "Please carry out immediate strikes against the enemy missile base"
CDS "Sorry sir, missile is down! Kripya do din baad try kijieye".

Are you aware of the number of failures of Tomahawk during Gulf war 1 ? Massa missiles have failed , even during war. And what we have had today is not even a confirmed failure. They could have been testing new subsystems etc. The Indian program is far more transparent that that of massa. so we see the news.
Last edited by gakakkad on 21 Dec 2011 17:46, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Postby member_20067 » 21 Dec 2011 17:42


the missile is not even launched its only postponed due to a technical snag," ITR director SP Dash told PTI, adding that the date for future trial would be decided after correcting the problem

Twin test of Prithvi-II postponed: ITR director


if it is a simulated warlike tandem launch ..and we for whatever reason could not launch it... it is equivalent of a failure..what is the difference between an aircraft crashing down and the other one not being able to take off...?

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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Postby shiv » 21 Dec 2011 20:00

Prithwiraj wrote:if it is a simulated warlike tandem launch ..and we for whatever reason could not launch it... it is equivalent of a failure..what is the difference between an aircraft crashing down and the other one not being able to take off...?


Boss why are you trying to save your echandee by insisting that it was a failure and that you were perfectly right the first time despite the losers who are arguing with you on here? OK it was a failure like so many Indian things. You are a patriotic Indian and you like to make a big announcement of Indian failures because of your love for the nation. The press calls it a failure. You call it a failure. Who can argue? It is a failure OK? Indians are fundamentally incompetent bums. Can't make a friggin missile take off.

Looks like you want to go to any length to avoid backing down from your original statement. Fine. No need to back down. You are right. Sir.

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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Postby member_20067 » 21 Dec 2011 20:32

shiv wrote:
Prithwiraj wrote:if it is a simulated warlike tandem launch ..and we for whatever reason could not launch it... it is equivalent of a failure..what is the difference between an aircraft crashing down and the other one not being able to take off...?


Boss why are you trying to save your echandee by insisting that it was a failure and that you were perfectly right the first time despite the losers who are arguing with you on here? OK it was a failure like so many Indian things. You are a patriotic Indian and you like to make a big announcement of Indian failures because of your love for the nation. The press calls it a failure. You call it a failure. Who can argue? It is a failure OK? Indians are fundamentally incompetent bums. Can't make a friggin missile take off.

Looks like you want to go to any length to avoid backing down from your original statement. Fine. No need to back down. You are right. Sir.


why so serious? you go on harping on everything under the sun... apart from explaining why it is not a failure? You go for a test drive and then car does not start...you get a good feel about it? feeling patriotic is great but being blind about it is being stupid...so is attempt to bully folks on a forum

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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Postby shiv » 21 Dec 2011 20:35

Prithwiraj wrote:
why so serious? you go on harping on everything under the sun... apart from explaining why it is not a failure?


Read my post again. I have said its a failure. You have said its a failure. We both agree its a failure. Why are you asking for an explanation that it might not be a failure? It is a failure. You were right the first time. Only losers are trying to argue with your rightness. Why do you want to argue with losers?

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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Postby member_20067 » 21 Dec 2011 21:02

shiv wrote:
Prithwiraj wrote:
why so serious? you go on harping on everything under the sun... apart from explaining why it is not a failure?


Read my post again. I have said its a failure. You have said its a failure. We both agree its a failure. Why are you asking for an explanation that it might not be a failure? It is a failure. You were right the first time. Only losers are trying to argue with your rightness. Why do you want to argue with losers?


your post is full of sarcasms Sir... and at-least give me that respect that I understand stingers and sarcasms... but based on my short stay in this forum I came to understand that you are super senior and very respected because of your contribution to BRF which is wonderful and so I rest my case here..

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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Postby member_20067 » 21 Dec 2011 21:02

deleted duplicate

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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Postby Badar » 21 Dec 2011 21:07

Prithwiraj wrote:if it is a simulated warlike tandem launch ..and we for whatever reason could not launch it... it is equivalent of a failure..what is the difference between an aircraft crashing down and the other one not being able to take off...?


Not necessarily, if the snag is not in the missile system itself but the test infrastructure for example? Maybe the telemetry ship had a problem or a tracking antenna is acting up? Could be a million other things.

And even if it fails occasionally it is OK, thats what testing is for. And in the real world be would presumably have alternates/standby systems as cover.

What mission success rate is acceptable in a system like the Prithvi? 100%? 90%? 50%? If so how many test launches would you expect to fail in periodic testing?

Are you aware of the number of failures of Tomahawk during Gulf war 1 ? Massa missiles have failed , even during war.


I don't believe you. I have extensively read best selling military literature like Tom Clancy etc, and it gives lie to your statement. US systems are top notch (all the money and IIT talent they get). Remember the Patriot missile and how it impeccably took down scud after scud in the Kuwait war? Or the mighty F-22, an ultra advanced plane, which has such a low attrition rate, issue free maintenance and zero down-time? Or the flawless San Antonio Class ships? Admit it, it is only our inadequacies with the fishbeds and Akash and Jalashwa that prompts us Indians to libel the US stuff.

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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Postby Singha » 21 Dec 2011 21:12

the takeaway from this episode is the need to have ample number of launchers and missiles of every category - some things will inevitably fail esp under demands of wartime mobility and we need backup.

the apologetic 'minimum credible deterrent' approach if it means a low number of warheads and launchers aint going to cut the cake. we need multiple missiles launched on same high value targets to be sure come Judgement Day. I have the unscientific belief that the P2 would target each others major cities with 20-30 MIRVed ICBMs each to account for deviations, bum warheads , missile failure etc.

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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Postby gakakkad » 21 Dec 2011 21:55



I don't believe you. I have extensively read best selling military literature like Tom Clancy etc, and it gives lie to your statement. US systems are top notch (all the money and IIT talent they get). Remember the Patriot missile and how it impeccably took down scud after scud in the Kuwait war? Or the mighty F-22, an ultra advanced plane, which has such a low attrition rate, issue free maintenance and zero down-time? Or the flawless San Antonio Class ships? Admit it, it is only our inadequacies with the fishbeds and Akash and Jalashwa that prompts us Indians to libel the US stuff.



:rotfl:

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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Postby shiv » 21 Dec 2011 22:23

Prithwiraj wrote: at-least give me that respect


You want respect? Then all you need to do is to stop being such a demanding egomaniac trying to prove that everyone else is wrong in arguing with your first post that called a failure of launch due to an unspecified "technical snag" as a failure similar to an aircraft crash. You are allowed to think what you like. Let others state their view. if you want to push your view on others and demand that they explain why they are right you will get exactly the amount of respect you deserve.

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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Postby member_20067 » 21 Dec 2011 22:36

shiv wrote:
Prithwiraj wrote: at-least give me that respect


You want respect? Then all you need to do is to stop being such a demanding egomaniac trying to prove that everyone else is wrong in arguing with your first post that called a failure of launch due to an unspecified "technical snag" as a failure similar to an aircraft crash. You are allowed to think what you like. Let others state their view. if you want to push your view on others and demand that they explain why they are right you will get exactly the amount of respect you deserve.


Shiv sir... if someone says that in a simulation exercise a failure (For whatever reasons) is not a "true" failure that I am not supposed to refute that assertion? A missile system is not just the missile but every other support system around it... and if one of it fails it is a failure of the system... if defending that stance is against the possibility of earning respect then I must say you are biggest offender of holding on your arguments... across all the posts with a single minded agenda of defending PSUs and OFBs ....

You can keep on quoting people out of context to prove a point that's your call... my point was very simple when I compared it with aircraft crash ... and aircraft being dud on the ground for technical reasons.... during war time you cant use either of the events to your advantage... I am pretty sure you and rest understood it very well...but still refuses to acknowledge it...

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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Postby shiv » 21 Dec 2011 22:42

Prithwiraj wrote: if someone says that in a simulation exercise a failure (For whatever reasons) is not a "true" failure that I am not supposed to refute that assertion?


The only reason you do not want to accept the other person's statement as his opinion which could be different from yours and try and argue that your view is right is because you do not like the idea that anyone can disagree with your viewpoint and want to prove that only your viewpoint is correct. Your ego is so huge that you do not like it being pricked by someone having a viewpoint different from yours. You are right. They are wrong.

When I tell you that your viewpoint is perfectly correct you are not happy. You think I am being sarcastic and want respect. You not only have rigid opinions, you are insecure also and see sarcasm in praise and agreement.

You are going to be a great deal of fun on this forum.

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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Postby member_20067 » 21 Dec 2011 23:33

shiv wrote:
Prithwiraj wrote: if someone says that in a simulation exercise a failure (For whatever reasons) is not a "true" failure that I am not supposed to refute that assertion?


The only reason you do not want to accept the other person's statement as his opinion which could be different from yours and try and argue that your view is right is because you do not like the idea that anyone can disagree with your viewpoint and want to prove that only your viewpoint is correct. Your ego is so huge that you do not like it being pricked by someone having a viewpoint different from yours. You are right. They are wrong.

When I tell you that your viewpoint is perfectly correct you are not happy. You think I am being sarcastic and want respect. You not only have rigid opinions, you are insecure also and see sarcasm in praise and agreement.

You are going to be a great deal of fun on this forum.


sorry Sir.... I do not want to dis-agree to anyone's opinion...everyone is entitled to one... but when I disagree with someone's opinion I tend to give a reason why I am not agreeing... that's all ....I love my country and defend it against all sorts of misconception across globe on the general perception of being a "Third World" country... but internally when I talk to my fellow countrymen.. I don't hide my disappointment...it is like family feud is within family...outside we are all united

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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Postby shiv » 22 Dec 2011 06:12

Prithwiraj wrote:sorry Sir.... I do not want to dis-agree to anyone's opinion...everyone is entitled to one... but when I disagree with someone's opinion I tend to give a reason why I am not agreeing... that's all ....I love my country and defend it against all sorts of misconception across globe on the general perception of being a "Third World" country... but internally when I talk to my fellow countrymen.. I don't hide my disappointment...it is like family feud is within family...outside we are all united


My reply is here
viewtopic.php?f=24&t=6237&p=1214905#p1214905

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Re: JSF,"turkey or talisman"?

Postby member_20067 » 22 Dec 2011 09:26

shiv wrote:
Prithwiraj wrote:sorry Sir.... I do not want to dis-agree to anyone's opinion...everyone is entitled to one... but when I disagree with someone's opinion I tend to give a reason why I am not agreeing... that's all ....I love my country and defend it against all sorts of misconception across globe on the general perception of being a "Third World" country... but internally when I talk to my fellow countrymen.. I don't hide my disappointment...it is like family feud is within family...outside we are all united


My reply is here
viewtopic.php?f=24&t=6237&p=1214905#p1214905


your reply falls short of you finding an answer for all the questions you have......which is rather strange

That is why I wonder about the reason that Indians go out of their way to argue with other Indians that something out of India is a failure, as if those who disagree are responsible for the failure. How do you help India by arguing in a public forum that a missile test that did not take place is a failure? What sort of love is this? Is it like giving birth to a donkey and pretending that it's just a big eared human in public while cursing your bad luck in private just to save echandee?


Answer: It is about defending your country against all other folks (pakis and chinkis) who might make fun of you. Kindly draft an answer which can be a befitting reply to them. I will glad use it against them........

Why is it that some Indians are always eager to point out that things from other countries already are big successes or will soon be successes while other Indians are always cursing Indian history and Indian industry. None of these Indians is unpatriotic. Every one of them loves India. But their love seems to show out in the most peculiar way.


yes ...criticisms does not mean lack of love... if at a mature age someone thinks it is a lack of love and blind dedication towards country... I seriously at a loss... may be that's my short coming but a thinking man probably should not worry too much about self introspection....


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