Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 06 Dec 2011

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Satya_anveshi
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 06 Dec 201

Postby Satya_anveshi » 15 Jan 2012 00:43

ramana wrote:I believe its the Indian demonstration to use force in Kargil and in Op Parakram that deflected the jihadi wave inward. They couldn't go berserk inside India without paying consequences. This allowed the policy of showing a carrot for the stick is getting ever ready. The Running Start is now three days from 21 days.
All those jihadis all primed up had no where to go but stay inside TSP.


Ramana garu,

IMO, making them stay put inside by itself does not turn them internally as has happened although it is a big part of the overall strategy (as in it is property of potty to smell bad..so we just enabled to have the paki potty put in paki living room).

Nullifying Pakistan's asymmetric capability (the terrorists of all kinds) and use of it on us by continuously exposing and talking about it at international fora, using the same in our relations and economic exchanges with international players, ensuring the semi-sensible elements in pak understand the deeper stakes involved in this game for pakistan, along with complimentary show of will to use force to defend our borders bought this situation. There are roles across PMO, MEA, MOD, MOH, MOC in it.

Even continuously talking about US and Pak relations, US’s continued encouragement to Paki Jihadi capability build up along with spurious reasons on which US has waged War on Terror, Iraq War etc has put US on defensive. In no small part, the hunt for “efficiency” in dealing with Afpak based terrorist using drones too has come in handy as far as US interest in Afpak is concerned.

These two factors (exposing Pak perfidy and exposing US perfidy/US hunt for efficiency due to US economic pressure) played their parts.

There must be no alternative for Pak to clean up jihadi game.


We still have not achieved the goal and therefore India must continue to play and refine it.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 06 Dec 201

Postby johneeG » 15 Jan 2012 01:02

ramana wrote:I believe its the Indian demonstration to use force in Kargil and in Op Parakram that deflected the jihadi wave inward. They couldn't go berserk inside India without paying consequences. This allowed the policy of showing a carrot for the stick is getting ever ready. The Running Start is now three days from 21 days.
All those jihadis all primed up had no where to go but stay inside TSP.


Same thoughts. Carrot cannot work in the absence of stick. I think what is really doing the trick is that pakis cannot launch another major terror attack without risking a war. Pakis would prefer skirmishes, war-mongering, border shoot-outs but not an all out war. It may unite pakis immediately but the first signs of defeat would make the pakis turn on each other and completely destroy the edifice of paki nation. Add to it, pakis are seen as nuisance and many countries(including many in US) perhaps would silently support India, if it goes to war with Pak. Not saying that India can wipe off pakis. But, any defeat(marginal or complete) would have serious ramifications for PA and its authority in pak. And PA is the only force keeping the paki land intact.

So, the pakis cannot launch great terror attacks without inviting an all out war. So, they find another target. And that target happens to be US. The tactic worked as long as US played dumb. There are indications that the US no longer wants to be the target and has shown that it will go after the pakis if provoked. The most recent incident where 24 paki soldiers were killed seems to be a testimony to that change.

Pakis are turning on each other, because nobody else is ready to tolerate their non-sense lying down. Pakis want everyone to tolerate their antics, so they threaten people with dangerous consequences if someone retaliates their deeds.

Pakis are in a pressure cooker because all the options are getting closed and the only (risk free) safety valve for the jihadis(with or without uniform) is the paki society.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 06 Dec 201

Postby Narad » 15 Jan 2012 01:26

Shiv garu, what a splendid commentary on napakistan!!

johneeG wrote:Same thoughts. Carrot cannot work in the absence of stick.

Bhaya bin hoye naa preeti- Goswami Tulsidas

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 06 Dec 201

Postby Satya_anveshi » 15 Jan 2012 01:30

According to down dot kaum, Kiyanahi said:
“There can be no allegation more serious than what the honorable prime minister has levelled,” it said.
“This has very serious ramifications with potentially grievous consequences for the country.”


but I hope kiyanahi also appreciates that there can be no more serious threat to civvies than a military running the country (to ground), makes it own people turn to jihadis, loses more than half of the country, and yet solely defines what national security, sovereignty means in pukistan.

The objective of Paki civvies, if they have two bits of political cunning and suicidal tendency of jihadis, must be to make themselves political martyrs, which puki army and puki supreme court are trying to deny them.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 06 Dec 201

Postby Satya_anveshi » 15 Jan 2012 01:52

I find it despicable to see duplicitous US throwing pakistan's democratic forces under the bus and prefering to deal with anti-democratic forces and jihadi-haqqani faction...just goes to show how hallow its "spreading democracy over the world" credentials are. I hope pakistan's civilian community take note of it.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 06 Dec 201

Postby Prem » 15 Jan 2012 02:13

http://pn.com.pk/details_en.php?nid=20844
Institutions be in limits; US ties under review: PM
(Khud ko kar neech Itna, ki har shoot se pehle Massa pooche, batta teri keemat kya hai)

ISLAMABAD: PM Gilani said that all institutions need to work within limits to promote national interest.
This he said while addressing the Defence Committee of the Cabinet (DCC) meeting attended among others by COAS Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani and other service chiefsPraising the courage and resilience of the armed forces of Pakistan, PM Gilani said that Pakistan’s honour, integrity and sovereignty are non-negotiable. He said there is complete harmony on all issues of national interest.
The PM said that the government would continue to work for strengthening all institutions. He said that National Defence Committee of the Cabinet has completed its recommendations in the context of Nato strikes on the Salala checkposts on the border with Afghanistan. He said ties with ISAF and US are being reviewed in line with these recommendations.The PM reiterated that there could be no compromise on Pakistan’s defence.He said Pakistan wants relations with the US on the basis of mutual respect.
The DCC rejected the US probe report into the Salala checkposts as dissatisfactory, and suggested documenting all matters relating to the Nato supply. The DCC also decided that Nato supply would remain suspended. Sources said that the DCC has decided that the US should pay compensation to the Pakistani troops killed in the Nato strikes.
:lol: 8) :rotfl:
( I told you so, Not only every Poaq has Price but they throw in few free as Choonga )
Last edited by Prem on 15 Jan 2012 02:22, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 06 Dec 201

Postby RajeshA » 15 Jan 2012 02:14

Satya_anveshi wrote:I find it despicable to see duplicitous US throwing pakistan's democratic forces under the bus and prefering to deal with anti-democratic forces and jihadi-haqqani faction...just goes to show how hallow its "spreading democracy over the world" credentials are. I hope pakistan's civilian community take note of it.

Well if PPP is introducing Mandarin in Sindhi schools making it mandatory in and after 6th class, then the Americans may be thinking perhaps the Chinese ought to go and pull out the chestnuts of PPP out of the fire! :)

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 06 Dec 201

Postby Manny » 15 Jan 2012 02:19

I don't want Pakistan to clean up their Jihadies... Its good that the Jihadies are being cultivated in Pakistan. That's a sure way to keep Pakistan at the bottom.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 06 Dec 201

Postby Satya_anveshi » 15 Jan 2012 02:20

Jhujar wrote:Khud ko kar neech Itna, ki har shoot se pehle Mass pooche, batta teri keemat kya hai

Jhujar ji, fantastic! :lol:

if you permit a bit of refinement:
Khudi ko kar neeche itna, ki har GUBO ka pehle Massa g@ndu se pooche, abe g@ndu, bata teri keemat kya hai :lol:
Last edited by Satya_anveshi on 15 Jan 2012 02:40, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 06 Dec 201

Postby Prem » 15 Jan 2012 02:21

Kiyani Kahe pukar ke , Gilani ke din abb Chaar sey,Coup Keeta Jayye , Coup keeta jayee
Kayani says Gilani’s criticisms ‘divisive’
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s army chief is furious with the prime minister for statements criticising the army and has demanded that they be clarified or withdrawn, a senior military source told Reuters on Saturday.
“The army chief complained to the president about the prime minister’s statements, and said they needed to be either clarified or withdrawn,” the source told Reuters.“He said such statements were divisive and made the country more vulnerable.”That tension has raised fears for the stability of the nuclear-armed country and exposed a struggle between the government and the military, which has ousted three civilian governments in coups since independence in 1947 and has ruled the nation for more than half of its history.
There are no signs yet that a coup is being seriously considered, however, reflecting the changed political calculations in Pakistan since civilans took power in 2008.Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani this week criticized Army Chief General Ashfaq Kayani and the director general of the Inter-Services Intelligence agency Lieutenant-General Ahmed Shuja Pasha for filing court papers in a case involving a mysterious memo that has pitted the military against the civilian government.In an interview with Chinese media, Gilani said the filings were “unconstitutional,” infuriating the military’s high command, who issued a stern press release.“There can be no allegation more serious than what the cute prime minister has levelled,” it said.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 06 Dec 201

Postby Satya_anveshi » 15 Jan 2012 02:27

RajeshA wrote:Well if PPP is introducing Mandarin in Sindhi schools making it mandatory in and after 6th class, then the Americans may be thinking perhaps the Chinese ought to go and pull out the chestnuts of PPP out of the fire! :)


That would be ironical. If Chinis do indeed pull such a thing/scene, US will lose even that fig leaf internationally and hand it to China. China can claim that they support democratic forces even while US disassociate itself with democratic forces. US propagandu over Chinese governance/CCP model will take a hit.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 06 Dec 201

Postby Satya_anveshi » 15 Jan 2012 03:09

Manny wrote:I don't want Pakistan to clean up their Jihadies... Its good that the Jihadies are being cultivated in Pakistan. That's a sure way to keep Pakistan at the bottom.


Manny,
It depends on what the end state vision you have for Pakistan or even South Asia in general (including that of India). In a realistic case, once these lessons are learnt by these elements such as Pak Army/Elite and wider geo-political influencers and transformation complete, the vision is to have entire South Asia on par with european or even at least the Latin American countries in terms of quality of life. It can be Win-Win for all including US/West. For this to happen, the inhibitors need to be identified and neutralized. I remain open about the timeframe but the end state is in no doubt. Take my comments about Paki cleanup in that context.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 06 Dec 201

Postby ramana » 15 Jan 2012 03:44

Satya_anveshi and johneeG garus, Think of the jihadis as scorpions and TSP as a bottle. By confining the scorpions in the jar by threat of war India is enforcing a clean-up for the nature of a scorpion is to sting. And they are sting each other and the US in Afghanistan as US is unwilling to exercise similar option on TSP.

Also US doesn't have the option of war with TSP. It can only hit them here and there for H&D purposes bothways. So that is their limitation. Even after egregious actions by TSP, US is reduced to occasional punitive strike and pay blood money like another defacto ummah brother to the TSP.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 06 Dec 201

Postby Anujan » 15 Jan 2012 03:46

ramana wrote:I beleive its the Indian demostration to use force in Kargil and in Op Parakram that deflected the jihadi wave inward. They couldn't go berserk inside India without paying consequences. This allowed the policy of showing a carrot for the stick is getting ever ready. The Running Start is now three days from 21 days.
All those jihadis all primed up had no where to go but stay inside TSP.


I wish to take a more nuanced view. I think the reason Pakistan is currently in pakistan is because the (Jihadi) export capability has grown in Pakistan at a far higher rate than the rate at which import capacity has grown in India.. And this is not due to Kargil and Parakram or Indian threat to retaliate. Let me explain:

As long as the rate at which Pakis trained terrorists matched the rate at which opportunity in India existed for terror, and as long as they trained "international terrorists" things were just fine. Now 2 things have happened. Political stability has been reached in Punjab, and political quasi-stability has been reached in JK. Terror opportunities have become low. Pakis on the other hand, instead of scaling back their Jihad machinery have increased it. Second reason is that they are training more "domestic terrorists". This is due to two reasons:

1. The infrastructure that they created for soviet jihad has become self-sustaining and a political force. For example, in increasing number of constituencies in Pakjab, nobody can win without SSP support. So you have major political parties currying favor with SSP and trying to act nice to them. Similarly, just like any corporation, organizations like LeT have innovated and gotten into the charity space and have started penetrating the education space, social services space, political space etc. So nobody in Pakistan has the spine (or the ability to take on the LeT).

2. A bridge has been created from the common people to the Jihadis. One does not simply grow up with a middle class progressive education and suddenly become a Jihadi. A bridge has to be created. In Pakistan, the religious parties and their agenda has created this bridge. This was because of Army wanting its own "democratic constituency". Remember MMA under Mushy anyone? These fellows, though not Jihadis themselves, are a quasi-Jihadis who dont train people for terror, but tell them that people of other religions are waji-bull-cutlet, take out processions against the Jews, burn effigies of the US, influence school curriculum.

Thus the nature of terrorists from Pakistan has changed. It is no longer the case of employing yahoos from select madrassas, taking them to a remote training facility in PoK and giving them a gun. It is now the case that terrorists are being produced right there in their schools and their society has become a terror training camp. If you are a kid in Pakistan, growing up reading in biology textbook that Hindus are to be exterminated, then attending a political rally supporting Aafiya, then donating to LeT during Eid, then volunteering for LeT's social activities, then talking to a mullah leading the effort, getting more radicalized and being trained for Jihad is one smooth affair.

Unfortunately (for Pakistan) these neo-Jihadis care more deeply about domestic politics. If Salman Taseer speaks out in favor of a Christian woman, they seethe. If someone tries to organize a dance performance, they fume. And who do they bomb? Pakistanis themselves. I do accept that if all these people were in India, Pakistan would be a peaceful place. But that is like arguing that if all these people were in the US, Pakistan would be a peaceful place.

The question remains: Why arent all these people in India? The answer is not Indian threats to retaliate. The answer is that Jihadi employment opportunities in India are low. Getting into India has become more difficult. There is a fence in JK now. There are thermal imagers, floodlights and aerostats and better patrolling now. People under-estimate the huge difference a simple fence has made in JK.

It is not easy to send, say 30,000 Pakis into India per-year on various terror assignments. Where will they stay? Who will conceal them? Who will pay them? Who will plan their attacks? It is easy on the other hand to send 500 Pakis into India per-year (which Pakis probably still do). As long as local mafia networks can be paid off, or as long as they have local sympathetic population in JK, and as long as they have a jihad to fight and die.

If Pakis hadn't expanded their capacity to more than 500 yahoos, Pakistan would have been peaceful, India would have continued to slowly boil as it always has. The current pakistan in Pakistan is due to the fact that Pakistan expanded production capacity without understanding market demand. Also their products are not export quality, it is more designed towards domestic demand.

Added later: Does that mean that India cold-start (or whatever it is called) has achieved nothing? Actually no. It has achieved something. It is not to prevent traditional terror attacks, but new form of terror attacks. Pakis now have better terrorists (now that the pool for choosing terrorists has become bigger), they probably have good logistics sleeper cells in India. Cell phones and internet and modern weapons have made these terrorists more deadly. Two decades ago, without cell phones and GPS to navigate from Karachi and without live 24x7 news networks, the Taj attack would have been impossible. But now it is. Future attacks will be deadlier. More importantly, its effects would be amplified through the media. More importantly (the political class understands this) it has the ability to influence domestic politics. Spain bombings did that. There was massive anger in India against the Maharashtra state govt. Contrast that with the '93 bombings. I heard about it on the radio. Next day read about it on the paper (we didnt have a TV then). A month later read about it in India today. Today everyone is pumped with live images and commentary.

To respond to the deadlier attacks and its political ramifications (both due to newer technologies) India needs newer options to retaliate. That is exactly what the Army is doing. OTOH, Pakistan is in pakistan not due to cold start or parakram. It is in pakistan purely due to product design and manufacturing reasons as mentioned earlier.
Last edited by Anujan on 15 Jan 2012 04:04, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 06 Dec 201

Postby RajeshA » 15 Jan 2012 04:03

Anujan ji,

thanks for the clarity!

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 06 Dec 201

Postby ramana » 15 Jan 2012 04:17

All I am saying is it is the sinews of the Indian Armed forces that protect the fence that keeps them on the other side. If all it needed was fence to keep out people, then lets look at the US Mexican border.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 06 Dec 201

Postby Anujan » 15 Jan 2012 04:26

Another way of thinking about it is, if you are in the political class, how would you think?

3000 people in India die in terror attacks per year? (generously speaking) in 2009 more 120,000 Indians died in road fatalities. It probably is worse now. So why do I care about terror fatalities? Building Delhi metro probably has saved more lives than spending money on coast guard boats in Mumbai or BPJs to police.

OTOH, look at how money and political capital is being spent to ensure congress victory in UP? Quotas for muslims, NREG scheme, food security bill. Last time I checked, NREG bill was 55,000 crore. Food security bill is twice that. Quota for muslims is against the constitution. After doing all this, will you risk being voted out of power, because the people are angered by a spectacular terror attack? How much money are you willing to spend to come up with tools and contingencies to make sure that you stay in power even after a devastating terror attack? What would your options be? Would you rule out military retaliation?

Yes, thinking this way is a bit cynical. But the duty of a political parties and a politican is to win elections. This is what they think about 24x7.

If all it needed was fence to keep out people, then lets look at the US Mexican border.



Edit: Ramana-ji, now I understand what you were saying. When I said "fence" In meant it in the sense of the tools that Jawans can now use to keep the piglets away. Obviously, fence, lights, thermal imagers and scopes without a jawan on the other side to pull the trigger does not amount to anything.
Last edited by Anujan on 15 Jan 2012 04:50, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 06 Dec 201

Postby Brad Goodman » 15 Jan 2012 04:30

^^^ to follow-up on your article. We have two school of thoughts

1) Jihadis are not interested in India because India does not retaliate
2) Jihadis are not showing up in India because of fencing, Patrol & Cold Start

Now both are opposing ideas. The truth is that the violence is down compared to 90's and we are all thankful to it. What I feel is that the truth is the combination of both these theories. Yes gazi feels more proud to fight the all powerful superpower enemy of ummah over the coward yindoo but this is only true for autonomus jihadis and not for state nurtured favs. Example pashtoon bunnies who were active in J&K are now on the western border. We did see eventual wind down of JeM as well but LeT piglets still have their guns focussed on yindoos

The second point of fence is absolutely correct along with other factors mentioned there. What we need to deep dive is why & how did the fence become possible. We should thank our stars and some level of politial vision of ABV & BJP government. When Mushy had his back against wall after parakram/ nau gyarah we made full use of that cease fire he offered to make sure we built something that was beneficial. What this did was it created a temporary lull in violence and the abduls of J&K almost an entire generation from 80's till 2001 who had seen violence, curfews all their lives were able to taste peace what it made was it created another level of fence for jihadis now they had less grass roots support in valley so they could not sustain for long inside India. So these combo factors led to cascading reduction in violence.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 06 Dec 201

Postby Anujan » 15 Jan 2012 04:36

^^^
No Brad-ji, (2) is only part of what I am suggesting. In fact, I am not even sure about (2) because I am not sure if terror violence *outside* of Punjab and JK has dropped in recent years when compared to 90's and 2000's*.

In addition to (2) I am suggesting

3) There are more Jihadis now because there is a jihad factory in every street corner, they are more interested in qadrifying whiskey swilling less pure. Pakistan is boiling because of this. They probably would kill Indians too, but they cant afford the ticket and dont have a way to get here, because the machinery to inject them into India can handle only so many people**.


*Violence in Punjab and JK has fallen. Why? Fence? Fatigue? Disillusionment? Better economic opportunities? Leaders getting older and their promises realized to be hollow? Local kingpins have been killed? Better patrolling, tactics and intelligence? All these need to be explored.

**Thats the reason I am skeptical about the liberal visa regime CBM bhaichara. We dont want a huge community of transplanted Pakis with Paki values in India.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 06 Dec 201

Postby Brad Goodman » 15 Jan 2012 05:44

Anujan ji you have nailed. Pakis respect power. When ever India has been tough they have done gubo. This pappi jhappi will never work. Just watching the debate that Shashi Tharoor had with that mohatarma made me realize how deeply the pakis have convinced themselves that violence in J&K is not bad since it is a payback for 1971, Tamil Tigers & Gujrat 2001. So if these RAPES have no remorse then why pappi jhappi with them? This whole notion of driving wedge between army & civvies using aman ka tamasha does not seem to cut ice for me

PS: point 1 was what Shiv ji had elaborated. Sorry for the lack of clarity there.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 06 Dec 201

Postby Brad Goodman » 15 Jan 2012 05:50

Why am I feeling that 26/11 seems to be the only sore point sticking for most forum members. The rise in violence we see all over the country has been on rise since 90's. The 1993 blasts. The Diwali blasts in Delhi, the blasts in Varanasi, Hyderabad have all happened before 26/11. The 7/7 train blasts in mumbai were to me more gruesome than 26/11 and I am not saying that 26/11 was a small event. I guess the only reason we feel it the biggest ever is because it was shown live 24x7 for 3 days on TV and it was like we were right there in South Mumbai witnessing it. Other than that most other attacks including the ghatkopar blasts and other such acts have almost claimed similar number of victims.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 06 Dec 201

Postby Shaashtanga » 15 Jan 2012 06:00

Bilatakalluf with Tahir Gora Ep23 - Tarek Fatah Blasts on Pakistan Army


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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 06 Dec 201

Postby Shaashtanga » 15 Jan 2012 06:22

The above clip should be watched by all who understand hindi or urdu. Tarek says in the clip that the fat pak army generals are retiring and taking canadian citizenship and doing ISI's work here. La-whore-via-ku-wait.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 06 Dec 201

Postby shiv » 15 Jan 2012 06:57

Satya_anveshi wrote:Shiv ji,

you have black belt at many a arts :P ; you show karate in this post and kung fu here and here.
How do you reconcile these two? Especially considering (even 10% of what is listed here to be true) the # of terrorist attacks that have happened in Pak.


Satya anveshi, as far as I can tell the only thing that requires reconciliation is the exact nature and identity of the people who conduct terror attacks in Shitistan and exactly who is fighting the Pakhana army. I have some unclear areas in my mind but will state what I think I know

1. The Pakistan army has been fighting and insurgency in NWFP and Baluchistan for decades. In these areas there have been numerous assaults by the Pakistan army and they have built up some "karma" in this region where there is a culture of hatred of "central rule" from Islamabad. Martial law in Pakistan has always assisted the suppression of news of killings and disappearances from these areas. The "war on terror" in which the Pakhana army did "intel sharing" with USA very likely ensured that the US or the Pakis themselves hit the old anti-Pak insurgents and called it "Success in the war on terror". The US never knew if it was hitting real Taliban or some anti Paki insurgents as long as Pakistan gave them the intel, and Pakistan used their F-16s and LGBs against these people. These are the people who are kidnapping an killing Paki rangers on a regular basis in the border areas. They are also the people who are blowing up Paki army or government buildings in Quetta/Peshawar

2. If you look at detailed reports of the worst terrorist massacres inside "Pakistan proper" - i.e Pakjab and Sindh, you find that the worst of them are sectarian, targeting Ahmedis and Shias. These sectarian killings have the blessing of the army. The Sunni groups supported by teh army get satisfaction and succor by targeting Ahmedis and Shias while the Pakis claim that "We are also victims of terror". It suited the Sunni Wahabi_Deobandi ("Wahabandi") Paki army and Pakistan polity to allow these anti minority attacks to continue. These were terror, but not anti-establishment terror. This was "good terror".

3. Karachi attacks/killings come under a different category. Karachi is a separate lawless state with its own long runing insurgency. The army does not want to clean it up, but possible cannot clean it up without damaging its own assets.

4. This leaves a few "genuine" terror attacks not sponsored by the army leadership but targeting army bases, ISI offices and the attack on Musharraf. These are the only genuine worry for the Pakhana army. They indicate deep inroads made by Islamists into the system and an awareness among some sections of the armed forces of the multiple separate "double games" played by the Pakistani armed forces.

So by and large the "jihadi groups" who are attacking India and NATO forces are allies of the Pakistani army. The so called "bad Taliban" are merely the old insurgencies that Pakhanaland has been fighting without success since the 1950. Even Air Cmdre Sajad Haider describes attacks by the PAF on these tribals in the 1950s (using US supplied aircraft) in his biography and recent reports have stated that even the 1947-48 attack on Kashmir was a way of getting these restive tribals to attack someone and get off Paki army backs.

Since the USA has been Pakistans richest, most generous and most naive sponsor, the US and the world dominating US media have been filling the airwaves with exactly the story that the Pakistani army made the US swallow. The Pakistani army claimed that it was fighting jihadis and losing thousands of men and wanted more and more and more aid. In actual fact the terror was mostly army sponsored sectarian inside Pakistan, and attacks against groups that the Pakistani army wanted eliminated anyway - like the independence seeking tribals in NWFP or Baluchistan.

If there is a civil military split in Pakistan where the civilians want to hold India's hand, the US must be encouraged not to play spoiler by supporting the Pakistan army. The Obama government knows that, I think. Can't say what any other admin will do.

There is such a deep empathy for the US (on here) that there is cognitive dissonance and a great inertia to believe how big a role the US has been made to play by a clever Pakistan. The US's stupidity was one of trust. The US trusted Pakistan because they wanted trustworthy allies in a genuinely difficult game. We praise the US so much as a superpower that we do not want to concern ourselves with US weaknesses. The US has sought to strengthen its weak spots by alliances - and an alliance with the Paki army was one such. The Paki army has milked the US to the fullest extent and makes the US people involved look like complete idiots. No American who has been fooled so badly will ever want to admit how much they have been taken for a ride - because inevitably it will lead to damaging court cases in the US - like the man who is suing BAe for supplying night vision devices. Only black man Obama, who probably understands the deep bhenchodgiri that is possible did a good job.

Even today the US can be a spoiler. If the US suddenly begins to feel that the Pakistani army is "good" - they will set back a solution to the Pakistan problem by another 10 to 20 years by arming, funding and supporting the Pakistan army while writing off/hiding/ignoring/dismissing as trivial its own losses. When India does something like that it is called "dhimmitude", "spinelessnes' and "capitulation". It is called "great power games" when the US does it. A rose by any other name..

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 06 Dec 201

Postby ramana » 15 Jan 2012 07:26

Brad Goodman wrote:Why am I feeling that 26/11 seems to be the only sore point sticking for most forum members. The rise in violence we see all over the country has been on rise since 90's. The 1993 blasts. The Diwali blasts in Delhi, the blasts in Varanasi, Hyderabad have all happened before 26/11. The 7/7 train blasts in mumbai were to me more gruesome than 26/11 and I am not saying that 26/11 was a small event. I guess the only reason we feel it the biggest ever is because it was shown live 24x7 for 3 days on TV and it was like we were right there in South Mumbai witnessing it. Other than that most other attacks including the ghatkopar blasts and other such acts have almost claimed similar number of victims.



The comedian Ralph Peters said nau do gyara was over in 20mins while 26 gyara was like three day cricket match. It was the extended terrorist attack which made it egregious. Early on its a dozen blasts everywhere and its clean up. However in 26/11 it was a prolonged assault.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 06 Dec 201

Postby shiv » 15 Jan 2012 07:31

Altair wrote: I have a question.
What about the crown jewels? Are they not a dimension in assessing or analyzing Pakistani Islamist Army?


Altair nuclear weapons are taken very seriously because they are very dangeorus. I think there is a clear "understanding" that even a hot-gas spouting Paki army cannot seriously start using nukes. It will actually be decimated.

I think one of the foremost rules of diplomacy is to allow your adversary an escape route. If you corner him he will get desperate and if he does desperate things you have no option but to eliminate him using your own nukes. But by then the war has become very costly.

So the game with nukes is to be absolutely clear that multiple nations will be glad to make Pakistan an example if they use nukes - so the Pakistan army is given a chance to come clean and not get itself into a situation where it is going to use nukes. This can fall apart if a rogue Islamist groups takes control of the army. Nobody knows how far down the Islamist road the Pakistan army has gone. Something may be known to diplomatic circles in India and the US (and shared with others) on the basis of one-on-one private conversations held with Paki civilians and retired military people in the know.

I suspect that the Pakistan army is genuinely being handled with kid gloves to stop them from getting too desperate, while at the same time they are being discouraged from grabbing power in a coup by open support being shown to the Paki civilian entities no matter how bad they are by both India and the US. This is obvious from what has been happeing in public.

The problem with analogies is that they go only so far in describing reality but serve as handy sound bytes. "Carrot and stick" does not always mean actually beating with the stick. Once the beating starts the game may be lost. The "stick" part is a threat. So if you don't see a beating occurring it does not mean there is no threat or no stick.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 06 Dec 201

Postby sanjaykumar » 15 Jan 2012 08:22

Hehehe Tarek Fateh for president of India.

He once lectured a gora audience starting with 'I am an Indian born in Pakistan'.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 06 Dec 201

Postby Shaashtanga » 15 Jan 2012 08:57

sanjaykumar wrote:Hehehe Tarek Fateh for president of India.

He once lectured a gora audience starting with 'I am an Indian born in Pakistan'.


Preface of his book "Chasing a mirage" also starts with aforementioned words in all CAPS.


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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 06 Dec 201

Postby SBajwa » 15 Jan 2012 09:53

Anujan ji you have nailed. Pakis respect power. When ever India has been tough they have done gubo. This pappi jhappi will never work. Just watching the debate that Shashi Tharoor had with that mohatarma made me realize how deeply the pakis have convinced themselves that violence in J&K is not bad since it is a payback for 1971, Tamil Tigers & Gujrat 2001. So if these RAPES have no remorse then why pappi jhappi with them? This whole notion of driving wedge between army & civvies using aman ka tamasha does not seem to cut ice for me


They only respect power and thus need to be dealt with stick each time (instead of carrots and pappji jhapphi). Once we project and show our power (In 1971 we lost from the high power as well as high moral position), They they will start teaching Tamil, Telegu, Kannada and Bangla at all primary schools from Lahore to Peshawar and Pindi to Karachi.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 06 Dec 201

Postby Prem » 15 Jan 2012 10:28

Tarek Fatehs tells truth and sums up of whole Poaq existence in Four Letter word i.e Dumb .
US urges Pakistan to hold dialogue on Balochistan
http://www.dawn.com/2012/01/15/us-urges ... istan.html
WASHINGTON: The US has urged Pakistan to “really lead and conduct a dialogue that takes the Balochistan issue forward”, says the US State Department.State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland addressed the issue in a “twitter-briefing” that the department holds every Friday, allowing people from around the world to tweet their questions to her.“This was a very popular question on our feed, so we wanted to make sure that we answered it today,” said Ms Nuland who focused on the violence plaguing Balochistan instead of tackling political issues raised in most of the tweets.“The United States is deeply concerned about the ongoing violence in Balochistan, especially targeted killings, disappearances and other human rights abuses,” she said.“This is a complex issue. We strongly believe that the best way forward is for all the parties to resolve their differences through peaceful dialogue.”The question that Ms Nuland responded to came from Pakistan from a person who identified himself only as “Cadet 1081” and asked: “Pakistan is committing genocide of the Baloch nation, why does the US not intervene in Balochistan and make us get our freedom?”While Ms Nuland confined herself to addressing the issue of human rights violations, other respondents did not. “Pakistan is not killing Baloch people. Only the followers of Balach and Hyrbyar want freedom,” wrote Mr Spirit 110.“Pakistan is killing innocent Baloch people and the world is blind. It is our right to be free,” wrote Behuman.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 06 Dec 201

Postby ramana » 15 Jan 2012 10:54

Kiyanahi remonstrating to Dus percenti that Groper should take back words is like a thief demanding to be treated with respect/izzat.

Its like izzat se baat karo.

Gilani now reaches out to Army

...
The embattled Pakistan Prime Minister, Yousuf Raza Gilani, appeared to reach out to the Army on Saturday, but the powerful Army Chief, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, is reported to have adopted a tough stance and wanted withdrawal of his statements critical of the military.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 06 Dec 201

Postby Prem » 15 Jan 2012 10:59

Coup karre,Kerry Lugar katte ,Armitage se Dariyo, Mai Gaddhi nahi Chorru Chahhe Cheena Bhi Kahiyo
Gilani Ghusaomat Gives Greasy Grip
Noticeable also was the absence of ISI Director General Lt Gen Shuja Pasha who, though not technically part of the committee, has been regularly invited to its meetings. In his place, the director general of Intelligence Bureau, the civilian spy agency, attended the proceedings.Gen Pasha had been at the forefront of those pushing for getting the memo scandal, which is at the centre of the confrontation between civilian and military leaders, investigated by a Supreme Court-appointed commission even though Gen Kayani had only asked for the matter to be probed as a national security matter.
Moreover, there had been an unannounced agreement between the military and the government not to further pursue the matter after former ambassador to the US Husain Haqqani had been made to resign.
Prime Minister Gilani apparently extended an olive branch to the army as mediation efforts by senior politicians and ‘foreign friends’ got into top gear.Hours before the DCC meeting, Army chief Gen Kayani had, in a surprise move, called on President Asif Ali Zardari. The one-on-one meeting is said to have lasted 45 minutes, possibly laying the ground for a rapprochement.The army, according to one of the mediators, is ready for backing off, but wants the government to make the first move towards peace. This possibly explains the conciliatory stance taken by Mr Gilani at the meeting and devoting significant part of his opening speech to the civilian-military tiff which, otherwise, was not part of the agenda.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 06 Dec 201

Postby ramana » 15 Jan 2012 11:01

SSridhar I am coming to the conclusion that using English abbreviation for Paki terrorist organizations robs them of their visceral ferocity. For instance L-e-T sounds benign while its full name Lashkar-e-Taiba (Soldiers of the Pure) is more closer to their mission statement.

So even though its easy to use the abbreviation atleast we the "Pak belts" need to call them by their full names.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 06 Dec 201

Postby ramana » 15 Jan 2012 11:02

Jhujar et al, Manzoor Ijaz of Memogate fame has implicated other names in drafting the memo:Karamat and Durrani in addition to the good Haqqani.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 06 Dec 201

Postby Prem » 15 Jan 2012 11:05

Kayani Babbu Kayani Babbu maan Jao, Chorro yeh gussa jarra hass ke Dikhao
Gillani nahi terra Jeth phir kyon isssse Shaarmao !!

Image

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 06 Dec 201

Postby Muppalla » 15 Jan 2012 11:19

shiv wrote:These events really put the Paki army on the back foot in Pakistan. Even today, most of the jihadi forces will be content to make peace with the Paki army. The LeT is anyway an ally of the Paki army. But Islamization will spread and as Islamization spreads the Paki civilian population - the much vaunted "silent. moderate" majority are beginning to get screwed.


It is impossible to put the Genie back. LeT types either can break the Army or the Army has to return back to basics. Allowing the army to break into pieces is dependent on geopolitics. US allowing it and China liking it etc.

I suspect that there is a very clear end-game plan from India. The idea is to old the hands of the "silent, moderate" majority Paki civilians who hate India but are afraid of Islamization. Paki civilians are stuck between fear/hatred of India (engendered by their education and their army) and Talibanization. Paki civilians are now willing to hold India's hand.


I guess this analysis is based on an assumption that there is so called "silent moderate majority". I seriously doubt if such a majority exists. Even for a while assuming that this class is substantial they will get the same treatment that Salman Taseer got. Not that some serious assasin is needed but all it needed is the next family member killing for honour.

This silent moderates will and can probably be refugees to India. India may welcome them in the secular phylosophy of the nation. Beyond that I do not think this moderates can shake any fundamentals of Pakistan.

At crisis points genocide is an option for Pakis as loss of population is not a loss of nation for this entity called a country. Genocides are fought by preaching all sorts of morals when the US+UK cabal wanted to destroy. In case of NaPakis no one will ever even do a zlitch. Genocide in Bangla was fought by whom? US? UK?. Bangladesh was geographically not Pakistan and hence India had success. Not only that, USSR want's to prove its credentials as Indian's friend after it did not help India in 1962. The convergence of interests and brilliant exploitation by Indira's India did the day.

Assume that silent moderate majority of Sindh gets slaughtered in 2013 October. What is that India going to do? Will US or UK take any Kasova type action? There is nothing that will happen except for refugees to India.

2. If the Paki army has "turned the corner" and is mostly Islamized, there will be a coup. It could get dangerous, but a war sparked by a jihadi Paki army will see it getting hit by India and the US. IMO

Just my analysis. Let's see how this pans out..


I wish but I seriously doubt that US will hit TSPA. It is trying to run away from Af-Pak by handing over to Taliban by requesting the Talibs to not hit west. (folks can spin it anyway but that is the bottomline)

In my opinion India has only two options and both are defensive. Massive war against Pak is a waste.
(1) Play what US wants India to do on a day to day basis, however do not accede to US's long term goals such as giving up land in Cashmere etc. Aman-Ki-Ashas, allowing some Terror attacks here and there so that TSPA can tell the town that they are still calling the shots, Phappi-Jhappi sessions in Agra, Sharm-el-Shakes, Mohali etc.

(2) Shutdown all the stuff anything with Pak, no embassies, no consulates, no talks, no trade. Create a serious physical, psychological fence. Increase the defenses and for every misdeed hit it back but short of war.

Option-1 suits everyone in the world including India and that is what it is doing. I do not think there is any grand strategy going on. Option-2 needs balls of different veriety and is doable but has to pierce through the geopolitics with different types of carrot sticks to everyone in the game.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 06 Dec 201

Postby ramana » 15 Jan 2012 11:25

Shiv, Try to see the movie "Agora" set in Alexandria Egypt, to understand how silent majority can be browbeaten to let the vocal minority take charge and murder intellect. All this was 300 years before Islam rose in the deserts.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 06 Dec 201

Postby Suppiah » 15 Jan 2012 11:44

Imran does not want to be the one insuring Mushy's life..

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/worl ... 488272.cms

the former general faced a range of threats to his life, from Baloch freedom fighters, whose leader he allegedly murdered, to families of victims of the Lal Masjid military raid.

"He's going to have a terrible time,'' Khan sneered. ''No longer being the president and having the protection which he has, I would not be the insurance company to give him life insurance.'



Is he conveying a message from the military indirectly?

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 06 Dec 201

Postby shiv » 15 Jan 2012 11:46

Muppalla wrote:
I suspect that there is a very clear end-game plan from India. The idea is to old the hands of the "silent, moderate" majority Paki civilians who hate India but are afraid of Islamization. Paki civilians are stuck between fear/hatred of India (engendered by their education and their army) and Talibanization. Paki civilians are now willing to hold India's hand.


I guess this analysis is based on an assumption that there is so called "silent moderate majority". I seriously doubt if such a majority exists.


Well I don't know. The plan is not mine. My favorite plan is to let Islamic yahoos take over Pakistan. But the GoI (and the USA for that matter) seem to be playing to a "silent moderate" gallery which they think exists and you say does not exist.

I will merely watch and see who is right.


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