Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 15 Jan 2012

[JwalaMukhi]

Unkil wants an alternate to the pakjabi for love. Hence a pathan is being courted. a whiskey drinking, pork munching who could connect with unkil and importantly be a liason to the abdul pathans. A pathan who has been trained by a gold smith and can play kirket would be a bonus.

[pankajs]

'Unstable Pakistan has consequences for India'

Shuja Nawaz is director of the South Asia Center at The Atlantic Council in Washington DC. He is the author of "Crossed Swords: Pakistan, its Army, and the Wars Within”.

Kamna: How do you read Gilani's move to appear before the SC at a time in Pakistan when the government, military and judiciary are at loggerheads? Will his move calm brewing tensions among the institutions in Pakistan?

Nawaz: He is the ‘Great Mollifier’ and ‘His Master’s Voice’ at the same time, and will try to buy the government time till the Senate elections when it will be in a stronger position politically. If things turn out badly after the next hearing on February 01, he may offer himself as the sacrifice to stave off further action against the government of President Zardari. Gilani’s appearance on January 19 before the court was a victory for the Court and for the rule of law in Pakistan.

Kamna: The deepening row between the government, and Army and judiciary has led to renewed concerns over the stability of Pakistan. How would that affect the whole region?

Nawaz: The state is still viable and relatively stable. The government has weak legs. It can rectify the situation with bold economic actions to stave off a deepening recession and heightened inflation. An unstable Pakistan has consequences for the whole region, from Afghanistan to India. Therefore, one must look to normalisation with India as key to stability in the region. India has a chance to contribute to that stability by reducing Pakistan’s paranoia about its intentions and actions in the region against Pakistan. Pakistan must try to reduce India’s fears about fomenting unrest via proxies, past, present, or future. Open borders and trade are going to be keys to these efforts.

Kamna:How can the whole crisis between the Army and the government be defused?

Nawaz: Frequent, direct, and honest communications. No game playing; and no playing to the gallery of public opinion. They tend not to listen to each other and avoid tough questions. The government needs to take ownership of the fight against militancy and not outsource it to the military. There is no military solution to the insurgency and militancy.

If General Kayani says he wants to shun politics, take him up on his word. And begin to govern effectively so he or his successor does not become the default option of the disaffected masses. Don’t try to bring external actors into this discussion, domestic or foreign. Civilian supremacy is enshrined in Pakistan’s Constitution. Government must earn the right to that supremacy by its vision, performance, and honesty. But, as the Urdu saying goes, “In this Hamaam, everyone is naked!”

[pankajs]

‘Pak’s Afghanistan policy is to support Taliban’

An influential US foreign affairs expert, Ashley J. Tellis, currently senior associate at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

There were always questions about the Pakistani state, and the supra-institution status of the military there, but the current civil-military stand-off seems sudden and extraordinary. What is a plausible explanation?

Far from being sudden, the present civil-military standoff actually was a long time coming. Right from the time of the Raymond Davis affair (the killing by a CIA official of two Pakistani armed men in Lahore on January 27, 2011), the divide between the civilians and the military began to grow ever deeper. It always existed, but the Davis episode, the Osama raid, and now Memogate, have only highlighted the fact that the two “executive” arms of the Pakistani state reside on different planets.
At its core, the divide is explained simply: the civilian government wants to transform Pakistan into a developmental state, wrest political supremacy away from the military and reach a new modus vivendi with Pakistan’s neighbours; the military, in contrast, wants to preserve Pakistan as a garrison state, protect its institutional and economic privileges and sustain a competitive relationship with Afghanistan and India, thereby justifying its continued supremacy in Pakistan’s political life.
Unfortunately, in this tussle, the civilians have proven more inept and are often compromised by their own failings — but their efforts to assert their prerogatives in the face of both military and judicial opposition in the aftermath of Memogate has propelled what has always been the simmering discord wide into the open.

Is this an autonomous development thrown up by domestic circumstances, or is it linked to the Afghan theatre in some way?

It is fundamentally domestic. It, obviously, finds reflection in Pakistani policies towards Afghanistan, but it is not provoked by developments in Afghanistan.

The trigger for the crisis appears to be Memogate, which belongs to last summer (although it came to public notice recently). If the situation deteriorates or prolongs, do you visualise difficulties with the political efforts being made in respect of Afghanistan involving a Taliban representational office in Qatar?

If the situation deteriorates, there will be some, but not substantial, impact on the current political efforts regarding Afghanistan, and not very much on the Taliban’s Qatar office. Pakistan’s Afghanistan policy is determined by the Army. This policy, for a long time now, has been to support the Afghan Taliban as a means of extorting concessions from Kabul. Unless the Pakistani military comes out as the decisive loser in the current crisis — an outcome that is difficult to imagine — Pakistan’s Afghanistan policy will stay the same.
The Pakistani military has reconciled itself to a representational office for the Taliban, but it still controls the most important levers necessary to shape the Quetta Shura’s (the Quetta-based Afghan Taliban’s top leadership) final decisions in regards to reconciliation: protection from US military action and operational, material, and, to a lesser degree, financial support.

Does the fluidity in Pakistan give the US a better shot at working at political equations relating to Afghanistan?

No. Whatever happens in regard to Afghanistan will require the consent of the Pakistan Army, and I do not see the Army being decisively weakened because of the current crisis. In fact, it is the civilians who are fighting a rearguard battle to protect their turf — meaning, their all too modest decisional autonomy — which is opposed by an Army and a judiciary that are in cahoots.

What has given Pakistan’s civilian government gumption? Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani has attacked the “unconstitutional” acts of the Army Chief and the ISI chief in an official newspaper from China, Pakistan’s “all-weather friend”. Cocking a snook at the Army Chief, Mr Gilani also says that he is answerable only to Parliament.

I think the civilians recognise that they are in a fight for the life of their regime. If the Army had not so brazenly transmitted its petition in the Memogate affair to the Supreme Court directly — a clear affront to the executive because it represented a public declaration of the Army’s autonomy from the state — the civilians would have accepted the indignities heaped on them with more equanimity.
But the way in which the Army and the court have conducted themselves in the Memogate affair has clearly signalled that, apart from the facts at issue, the military does not trust its political masters and is in fact determined to clip their wings by all means short of a direct coup d’etat.

The Army must see these as acts of grave provocation since it has always treated the civilians as chattel. Why has it not dislodged the civilian authority? Is it afraid of American opinion and aid disruption? Can the military and the ISI get back at the civilians by unleashing their Islamist “assets” on them, or other organs of the state such as the Supreme Court?

Exactly! But the Army has also realised that there are extremely high costs today to any direct usurpation of political authority. At a time when the Pakistani economy is in terrible shape, when US aid would dry up instantly in the event of a coup, and when the Pakistani Army is not exactly viewed with admiration by the international community, exploiting Pakistan’s Supreme Court — and the conceit of its Chief Justice — provides a far better way of “fixing” the civilian government than any brazen military takeover. Given the sympathies of the Court, using the Army’s Islamist proxies is unnecessary, at least for now.

Do the unstable conditions in Pakistan mean anything for India? Do we need to watch out for diversionary military provocations staged probably through armed Islamist outfits?

Instability in Pakistan is always bad news for India — but I do not think diversionary military adventures are the biggest danger right now. The Pakistani Army currently has its hands full with problems in the tribal areas and in Balochistan; the situation in Afghanistan is highly uncertain; the US is thoroughly disenchanted with the Pakistani military; and the economy is in crisis. All told, this is an awful time even for a diversionary military provocation, especially given that none of Pakistan’s previous stunts have ever come out right.

[Vivek_A]

Therefore, one must look to normalisation with India as key to stability in the region. India has a chance to contribute to that stability by reducing Pakistan’s paranoia about its intentions and actions in the region against Pakistan.

Pakis in DC keep on pushing this line but nobody is buying it.

[pankajs]

Taliban video highlights revenge on Pakistan military

(Reuters) - Fifteen Pakistani soldiers stood blindfolded, handcuffed to each other on a barren hilltop as one of their bearded Taliban captors held an AK-47 rifle and spoke with fury about revenge.

The video then shows the men standing quietly. Taliban chanting can be heard. "We will cross all limits to avenge your blood," it said, referring to fighters killed by Pakistani security forces.

One of the men shoves a clip into his assault rifle and fires a few rounds into the back of the heads of a few of the soldiers. "God is greatest," the Taliban yell.

Other fighters step up and take turns pumping bullets into the men, some wearing green military uniforms. Each time a soldier collapses, the man standing next to him is pulled in that direction by the handcuffs.

[ramana]

Shuja Nawaz interview is typical RAPE nonsense. Its in TSP interest to not do anything foolish against India now or ever.

If TSP collapses its a law and order problem for India not an external threat of invasion. And if it collapses its in US and PRC interests to take out the clown jewels. So what hafim is he smoking?

[pankajs]

Pakis in DC keep on pushing this line but nobody is buying it.

GOI is buying it I think, either on its own or under US pressure.

India has a chance to contribute to that stability by reducing Pakistan’s paranoia about its intentions and actions in the region against Pakistan. Pakistan must try to reduce India’s fears about fomenting unrest via proxies, past, present, or future. Open borders and trade are going to be keys to these efforts.

It seems to me all this talk on the 'aman ki asha' track and the other moves by GOI fit into the above. Don't we go out of our way to soothe the paki's every time we meet? I do not think pukistan will ever deliver on its part, if history be our guide.

[pankajs]

The end of a geopolitical affair

In Pakistan’s current crisis, why is its military is so reluctant to consider simply seizing power? One reason is that General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani cannot count on the US looking the other way. At a minimum, Washington would have to slap sanctions on an economically faltering country. At a maximum, it would be the last straw in a bilateral relationship at its lowest ebb since it was first woven in the 1950s.

Pakistan’s establishment claims it has been used and abused by the US, the most serious violation being that country’s stealth attack on Abbottabad that led to Osama bin Laden’s death. There has been the Raymond Davies affair, the endless drone attacks and the increasingly public accusation of double-dealing by senior US officials – the most notable being Admiral Mike Mullen’s linking of the Inter-Services Intelligence with terrorist groups.

There is some satisfaction for India in all this. It has been persistently claiming the existence of a military-terrorist nexus. Many in Washington agree. After Abbottabad, there is no one in Washington who doesn’t. The US-Pakistan relationship, says Daniel Twining of the German Marshall Fund, “was really at a historic high for the past decade but is diminishing.” But it might not matter as much to the US if relations fall apart, he says.

Other events are undermining the basis of the US-Pakistani bond. Islamabad had expected the US to totally retreat from Afghanistan, leaving Pakistan’s Taliban allies in charge. Instead, the US will leave a substantial force behind along with many drone bases. The US is talking with the Taliban, but only desultorily with groups that Islamabad patronises.

With the US Congress also pulling the plug on aid to Pakistan, what is left? The answer is nukes. “If Pakistan didn’t have nuclear weapons, with Al Qaeda almost gone, no one would care a fig about that country,” said one ex-US ambassador to the region. As they realise this, Islamabad is getting more paranoid about the security of its “strategic assets.” The more unstable they look, the more willing the US will be to try and do something risky to salvage Pakistan’s nuclear weapons.

US officials are talking about a “new normal” in their Pakistan relations. This would cut ties to the bare bones: counterterrorism cooperation, limited military transit requirements, Afghan talks, narcotics and some humanitarian assistance. “We’ll have to work with the Pakistan military on a limited basis while negotiations with the Taliban proceed,” says John Schlosser, a former state department South Asia hand.

There seems to be no real understanding among Pakistanis that their leverage is dwindling or how much Abbottabad vapourised their credibility in the US. A parliamentary committee report on how to change the US relationship bizarrely demanded, for example, a civilian nuclear agreement.

It could get worse. “The relationship will fall further if the US finds [Al Qaeda chief] Zawahiri in Pakistan. Or there are terror strikes on India or the US,” says Bruce Riedel, former AfPak advisor to Barack Obama.

The worst thing is that Washington is decoupling just at a time when Pakistan, economically and otherwise, can least afford to lose their most generous international partner.

The unstable AfPak situation will keep US engaged with the Pukis unless it gets another direct route to Af.

[Dipanker]

There is a khanspeeracy theory doing rounds that carving Baluchistan out of Iran and Pakistan being the reason for the buildup in Persian gulf and Pakistan. Wonder if it carries any substance.

khanspeeracy or not, in long term Baluchistan is goner. It is only a matter of time.
The Baluchis hate the Pakjabis too much.

[ArmenT]

Three Germans arrested by Pakistani Police

Islamabad, Pakistan (CNN) -- Three German citizens, including a German army colonel, were arrested in a police raid Saturday in the northern Pakistani city of Peshawar, authorities said.
Police official Mian Saeed said the three men had set up an office in the city without the permission of either the Pakistani or the German government.
...
...

More news about the Germans from the Nutty Nation
Three Germans arrested in Peshawar for involvement in suspicious activities

The detained foreigners were identified as Curtain Wild, Lauren and Rhodwolf Smith.

Now I'm guessing that Rhodwolf Smith is really Rudolf Schmidt (suitably mangled by paklish pronounciation), but any guesses about this Curtain Wild fella. Sounds like a pr0n star name . Gotta love the Nutty Nation's reporting style.

[ramana]

Kurt Enwald?

One of the detained men was stated to be a serving colonel of the German Army. He was identified as Colonel Christine Wild. The two other German nationals held from the building were Lawrence and Ralph Smith.

....

Four locals were also detained from the building that was raided who are being questioned.

Peshawar, Pakistan - Pakistani police on Saturday briefly detained and then released three German diplomats in the north-western city of Peshawar.

A security official said they were suspected of being agents with Germany's foreign intelligence agency BND.

The three, two men and a woman, were arrested in an allegedly unauthorized liaison office run by the German embassy in the posh neighbourhood of University Town in Peshawar, which has a presence of Afghan Taliban insurgents.

'The three were taken into custody when they failed to satisfy the police about their legal status,' police official Mian Saeed told dpa. 'They were part of an unauthorized liaison office of the German embassy. The office has been sealed off by the police.'

'They are part of German embassy operations. When we contacted the Germany embassy, they said yes these are our people,' Saeed said.

An intelligence official told dpa on condition of anonymity that the three were German intelligence agents, including a colonel.

'We have been monitoring them for months. They were travelling around Peshawar to gather intelligence,' said the official, adding that the diplomats had posed as aid workers with the German government's international development agency, GIZ.

The official said the three had held several meetings with officials from the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, a semi-autonomous mountainous area along the border with Afghanistan, allegedly using fake documents stating they were GIZ aid workers.

looks like everyone is running their own Redmond ops.

[Anujan]

Shuja Nawaz interview is typical RAPE nonsense. Its in TSP interest to not do anything foolish against India now or ever.

If TSP collapses its a law and order problem for India not an external threat of invasion. And if it collapses its in US and PRC interests to take out the clown jewels. So what hafim is he smoking?

One thing that I admire among the Pakis is a single minded focus of their messaging. It has two parts to it (a) What we do is legitimate (b) Bad things will happen to you if you dont help us (and on the flip side good things will happen to you if you help us).

To elaborate on (b), you get repeated (what I call) "speech patterns" from Pakis some of which are

1. Asking us to do this and that will only strengthen the hands of extremists and reduce political space to operate
2. Solving Kashmir is key to Solving Afghanistan/Preventing Nuclear war/Preventing more adventurism like Kargil
3. Pakistan is key to American security (remember the 9/11 Ad they took out with the title "Which other country can do more for your security?")
4. India will reap peace dividend/economic dividend etc etc if it helps Pakistan
5. Collapse of Pakistan is bad for India and the world

In all of these speech patterns, the key thing to note is that Pakis talk about bad things being done by a third person. This is because Paki RAPE position themselves as the "reasonable intermediary" between the West (and India) and the "Unreasonable extremists". So essentially they are trying to set a stage whereby they are mediating negotiations between "unreasonable extremists" and the West/India to make sure that West/India gets all they need in return for giving up something to the "unreasonable extremists". Ofcourse the "reasonable intermediary" gains nothing from this transaction, because he is in it due to good faith and the betterment of the world!!

This can only be stopped if the world in turn, repeatedly points out that the "reasonable intermediary" and "unreasonable extremists" are in fact, one and the same. In fact the intermediary is the more dangerous element because they are feeding the extremists to gain concessions from India/West and eventually renouncing all responsibility for the unreasonable behavior of the extremists.

This point should be hammered again and again. Take Zardari for example. He is pitied and what not. But what has been his record in delivering terrorists to Justice? Did he not deny Kasab was a Pakistani (on Larry King show none the less!). How about Gilani? Did he not insinuate Indian hand in Balochistan? As head of the government is he not responsible for explaining how Osama was chilling in Abbottabad? Any question about Osama, Gilani would point to the Army who could destabilize his government and encourage extremists. Any question to Kayani, he would point to abduls and tell us that they would be demoralized and encourage extremists. And this way the shirking of responsibility, while milking concessions goes on. This list does not stop with Zardari and Gilani. That RAPE Hina Khar came over and met JK separatists and assured them "full support". Hussain Haqqani was instrumental in negotiating the deals for Paki Navy. If he was so much against the Military, why did he spend his time arming them? Every Paki either in Khakhi or out of it, is a terrorist or a terrorist financier or a terrorist supporter. The entire diplomatic corps of the Pakis are the political arm of the terrorists.

We should hammer this again, again and again and BRF and Rakshaks (whatever forums they participate in outside of BRF) should distill this message in a nice small soundbyte. Call their Diplomatic corps "Political arm of terrorists" and their army "Terrorist trainers". Their political classes is terrorist PR and apologists. Use it interchangeably. That is the only way their message can be countered.

[ramana]

And also point out that India is least bothered by the eminent collapse as it already is threatened to a larger extent by the organized TSPA.

[SSridhar]

'Unstable Pakistan has consequences for India'

Unstable or stable, Pakistan has consequences for India, very dangerous consequences.

[Dipanker]

I don't understand, what is it that I repeat that gets old? I mean it is worth re-iteration that SDRE containment is central to US policy in dealing with TSP lest we loose sight if this. Even now, just witness the mumbo jumbo from Uneven & Co about TSP being too nuke to fail, all useless pedantic narratives to masquerade the real motive of US in propping up this terrorist abomination.

You do post the same thing over and over, do sampling of your posts, you will see.

Secondly the "centrality" of US policy of containing India through Pakistan is debatable. Containment of India is more of a byproduct, happens mainly when USA needs the services and Paki get goodies for services rendered. When no services are needed Paki are sent to the doghouse for extended period of time! So there goes the "centrality" theory of containment as espoused by you.

http://www.hindustantimes.com/world-new ... 91691.aspx

With all due respect what is the stick here?

And while there may be some civil military tensions, elementary BR 101 on TSP should remind you that when it comes to India, civilians by and large are on boards. You thing Gropper is some kind of peacenick? You think any civilian will dare touch Hafeez pig?

What Tharoor delivered were slaps, not the big stick you are looking for. He delivered them a whole series of slaps, some subtle ones. Read the Hindustan Times article, each and every paragraph is a slap in the face of Paki-satan, that was the consensus reached on the last thread.

[CRamS]

Anujan,

Excellent analysis, except for the following point

This is because Paki RAPE position themselves as the "reasonable intermediary" between the West (and India) and the "Unreasonable extremists"

TSP RAPE sure position themselves as the "reasonable intermediary" between the West and the "Unreasonable extremists", but in the case of India, TSP RAPE are pretty in your face and in fact position themselves as the political voice between India and the "reasonable extremists" (1971 == "Indian terrorism" in Baluchistan, 1971 == pigLeT terror J&K, Kargil == Siachen, "Hindu extremists" == pigLeTs etc. TSP RAPE dare not draw such utterly specious concocted equivalences with the west. And the west also has no qualms accepting those equivalences that TSP invokes when it comes to India, but thats a different story.

[Altair]

I doubt it, US is not about to sell TSP Pakijabis down the Indus river that badly. There is still a lot of love between them and common interests in containing us SDREs. Reason being just as India will collapse should J&K be dismembered any further, especially of the valley Muslims have their way, likewise, TSP will not be able to withstand another vivisection of their so called "country". Pakijabis will loose their potency against us SDREs should that happen, and its in nobody's interests: USA, China, Pakijabis, and last but not the least, non-Indian "South Asian" "secularists" among the Indian ruling elite. Who among these groups will savor Hindu simpletons like Baba Ramdev, Anna Hazare, Sri Sri Ravishankar etc as the epitome of Indian civilization?

US has bigger problems than containing us SDRE's.Try to remove yourselves from the equation and see the world from a neutral perspective. It might help solve your problem.

[CRamS]

You do post the same thing over and over, do sampling of your posts, you will see.

Cop out

Secondly the "centrality" of US policy of containing India through Pakistan is debatable. Containment of India is more of a byproduct, happens mainly when USA needs the services and Paki get goodies for services rendered. When no services are needed Paki are sent to the doghouse for extended period of time! So there goes the "centrality" theory of containment as espoused by you.

This has been the seminal unstated US policy. Even some non politically correct US commentators have pointed that out. Harold Gould comes to mind. You need to read & reflect a bit more as I have to come to this immutable conclision.

What Tharoor delivered were slaps, not the big stick you are looking for. He delivered them a whole series of slaps, some subtle ones. Read the Hindustan Times article, each and every paragraph is a slap in the face of Paki-satan, that was the consensus reached on the last thread.

I don't consider useless indirect verbal jabs if any as slaps much less sticks. Come back & talk to me in a few weeks/months when MMS, Tharoor & Co start ordering the resumption of kirket and other love making ties with TSP. Of course even then you won't admit this as a surrender. You will say its carrots and sticks and cite some verbal jab as Chanakyan when MMS announces resumption of kirket. There seems to be some kind of consensus with some BR folks around this bizzare notion that India's surrender is akin to USA's toying with TSP through carrots & sticks. US is continents away from TSP and can remote control TSP, while India has to live with the consequences of a terrorist abomination resurrected to fight another day.

[CRamS]

US has bigger problems than containing us SDRE's.Try to remove yourselves from the equation and see the world from a neutral perspective. It might help solve your problem.

Absolutely yes, USA has bigger fish to fry. But containment of SDRE is the corner stone of its "South Asia" policy, and but for AfPak, "South Asia" is a bit player in US calculus.

[chetak]

Therefore, one must look to normalisation with India as key to stability in the region. India has a chance to contribute to that stability by reducing Pakistan’s paranoia about its intentions and actions in the region against Pakistan.

Pakis in DC keep on pushing this line but nobody is buying it.

What they actually mean is that open your borders and let us pakis enter unrestrained into India for "people to people" contacts.

They will then swagger in to India like a conquering army, forcefully and illegally settle pakjabis into cashmere, trade solely on their terms since we have committed to "help" them and internationally continue to bleat that we must "do much more" to allay their "fears".

Unfortunately they seem to have found a senile dupe /collaborator in the highest corridors of Indian power to push just this line in exchange for the nobel.

[member_22286]

And also point out that India is least bothered by the eminent collapse as it already is threatened to a larger extent by the organized TSPA.

Sir ,Refugees from TSP are a bigger headache than all the pin pricks we are facing now.The only way to deal with refugees is culling them how many refugees can we cull

[pankajs]

We should hammer this again, again and again and BRF and Rakshaks (whatever forums they participate in outside of BRF) should distill this message in a nice small soundbyte. Call their Diplomatic corps "Political arm of terrorists" and their army "Terrorist trainers". Their political classes is terrorist PR and apologists. Use it interchangeably. That is the only way their message can be countered.

I agree.

One thing that I admire among the Pakis is a single minded focus of their messaging. It has two parts to it (a) What we do is legitimate (b) Bad things will happen to you if you dont help us (and on the flip side good things will happen to you if you help us).

While I agree, If I may, I would rephrase the Paki RAPE position as (a) We are only trying to hep you (b) So help us help you.

As you have rightly pointed out, the rest follows. It allows the pakis to pin the blame on us for anything that goes wrong. See 'you did not help us help you' or 'you did not do enough to help us help you'.

This can only be stopped if the world in turn, repeatedly points out that the "reasonable intermediary" and "unreasonable extremists" are in fact, one and the same. In fact the intermediary is the more dangerous element because they are feeding the extremists to gain concessions from India/West and eventually renouncing all responsibility for the unreasonable behavior of the extremists.

We understand this and I think most people in US establishment have come around to this view. Hillary did talk about keeping pet snakes in the backyard. The US dilemma is wrt Afganistan and their future plans for that place.

[ramana]

CRS and Dipankar please take it to off topic thread. Thanks, ramana

[shiv]

TSP RAPE sure position themselves as the "reasonable intermediary" between the West and the "Unreasonable extremists", but in the case of India, TSP RAPE are pretty in your face and in fact position themselves as the political voice between India and the "reasonable extremists"

This is a very astute observation. If I were to display it graphically I would say that TSP's "reasonable voice" is between India on one pole and the USA (world) on the other pole - like this

USA <> Pakistani reasonable voice <> Unreasonable extremists <> Reasonable extremists <> India

In every case Pakistan is between the extremists and the USA. And Pakistan positions itself between the USA and India and fights for the US's attention as the best alternative to all extremists and India.

This model works well if the US is relevant. If the US becomes weak or irrelevant, the Indians need not give a flying fuk about Paki voice and which way it howls. The US's relevance is vital to this model. If the US sinks - Pakistan's "appeal to USA" model is finished.

[pankajs]

If TSP collapses its a law and order problem for India not an external threat of invasion. And if it collapses its in US and PRC interests to take out the clown jewels. So what hafim is he smoking?

Right. The threat that jihadis would get hold of the 'clown jewels' is an interesting one, especially with Xinjiang in the picture. Would China allow such things to fall in the hands of the jihadis?

<Hawa Alert>
I think the solution to our security dilemma may lie in Xinjiang. If Xinjiang becomes turbulent, it would put pressure on both China and Pukistan and on their taller/deeper friendship. If the Chinese have any control on the Puki nukes, and I think they have, they will ensure that all such risks are taken care of. It will also loosen their hold on Tibet in the long term, even if there will be trouble there in the short term.
</Hawa Alert>

[svinayak]

US has bigger problems than containing us SDRE's.Try to remove yourselves from the equation and see the world from a neutral perspective. It might help solve your problem.

Absolutely yes, USA has bigger fish to fry. But containment of SDRE is the corner stone of its "South Asia" policy, and but for AfPak, "South Asia" is a bit player in US calculus.

USA larger policy is containment of SDRE and it is done with all other things going on including bigger problem.

They have put India inside a box South Asia and 'regional power' equation.
They look at India influence and historical capital in central asia, ASEAN and middle east and are worried that US influence will reduce. This is a real threat to US and they will do anything to take care of this.

[Shaashtanga]

BilaTakalluf with Tahir Gora Ep24 - Zaffar Baloch Claims: Pakistan Occupies Balochistan

[RCase]

I doubt it, US is not about to sell TSP Pakijabis down the Indus river that badly. There is still a lot of love between them and common interests in containing us SDREs. Reason being just as India will collapse should J&K be dismembered any further, especially of the valley Muslims have their way, likewise, TSP will not be able to withstand another vivisection of their so called "country". Pakijabis will loose their potency against us SDREs should that happen, and its in nobody's interests: USA, China, Pakijabis, and last but not the least, non-Indian "South Asian" "secularists" among the Indian ruling elite. Who among these groups will savor Hindu simpletons like Baba Ramdev, Anna Hazare, Sri Sri Ravishankar etc as the epitome of Indian civilization?

US has bigger problems than containing us SDRE's.Try to remove yourselves from the equation and see the world from a neutral perspective. It might help solve your problem.

+1. Ditto for Dipanker's article too!

[Dilbu]

Musharraf not willing to return to Pakistan with 'foreign power, army, ISI' help

Former Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf has said he does not want to return to Pakistan with the help of any foreign power, army or the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).

He said polls should be held under the army, adding that the interim government should be set up as early as possible.

He said that no one could stop him from coming back to Pakistan.

“The people have been fed up with both political parties and they are looking for a third power. I want to provide them the same third power, for which they are waiting. Cases were made against me on political grounds,” he said.

[Dilbu]

Paki from britainistan gets his 72 from the national bird.
As father mourns, UK link emerges in latest American drone strike in Pakistan

The end for Khan’s youngest son, Aslam Awan, came when a drone piloted remotely from the United States fired a missile at a house along Pakistan’s border with Afghanistan. Awan was among four people killed, U.S. officials said this week, describing Awan as an “external operations planner” for al-Qaida. British authorities say he was a member of a militant cell in northern England who had fought in Afghanistan.

[Dipanker]

This has been the seminal unstated US policy. Even some non politically correct US commentators have pointed that out. Harold Gould comes to mind. You need to read & reflect a bit more as I have to come to this immutable conclision.

So what happens to "centrality" of using Pakistan as means of containing India when Pakistan is sent to doghouse as far as military aid is concerned such as between 66-79 and 1989 - 2001 ?

See the problem in your argument?

I don't consider useless indirect verbal jabs if any as slaps much less sticks. Come back & talk to me in a few weeks/months when MMS, Tharoor & Co start ordering the resumption of kirket and other love making ties with TSP. Of course even then you won't admit this as a surrender. You will say its carrots and sticks and cite some verbal jab as Chanakyan when MMS announces resumption of kirket. There seems to be some kind of consensus with some BR folks around this bizzare notion that India's surrender is akin to USA's toying with TSP through carrots & sticks. US is continents away from TSP and can remote control TSP, while India has to live with the consequences of a terrorist abomination resurrected to fight another day.

I know you would prefer a big stick in Teddy Roosevelt mould but that is just not Indian style. In India we do it differently.

Again just to remind you India has been using Cricket diplomacy against Pakistan for oh about 40 - 50 years, it is not a new thing.

[Dipanker]

CRS and Dipankar please take it to off topic thread. Thanks, ramana

Oops, didn't see your post, will do.

[SSridhar]

One more interesting situation developing between TSPA and Gilani's government over the question of providing security to the snake-oil salesman.

mansoor Ijaz's counsel demands only Army protection - DT

Sheikh wrote separate letters to the attorney general and army chief, asking them to ensure Ijaz’s security by army “from the point of his arrival in Pakistan and to the point of departure from Pakistan so that he could appear before the commission”. Sheikh told army chief Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani and AGl Maulvi Anwarul Haq that failing to fulfil their commitment would render them liable to contempt of court. In his letter to the army chief, Sheikh wrote; “Unless I receive a formal commitment from you today (January 21) {deadline is already over} that in accordance with the commission’s direction, army personnel are going to be directly responsible for Mr Ijaz’s personal safety, I will not be in a position to advice my client to travel to Pakistan.”

Interior Ministry, not Army, would provide security: Rehman Malik - DT

He said the Interior Ministry, and not the army or the ISI, would provide protection to the Pakistani-American businessman. He said the ISI is an intelligence agency and not a security organisation. “If army’s security is needed for someone, there is a constitutional way to arrange it,” he said.

Malik said the counsel for Mansoor Ijaz would have to provide details of his client’s engagements in Pakistan so that security arrangements could be made accordingly. He said a meeting of ministries of defence and interior and attorney general would be held in the next couple of days to discuss security for Mansoor Ijaz.

[pankajs]

To add to the above

Veiled threat: ‘If requested, Ijaz could be put on ECL’

ISLAMABAD: While a defiant Mansoor Ijaz insisted that nothing would stop him from entering Pakistan, Interior Minister Rehman Malik warned that the government will put Ijaz’s name on the Exit Control List, if requested by the Parliamentary Committee on National Security.

If you get in, we will ensure that you don't get out.

[Brad Goodman]

Exclusive: How Pakistan helps the U.S. drone campaign

The death of a senior al Qaeda leader in a U.S. drone strike in Pakistan's tribal badlands, the first strike in almost two months, signaled that the U.S.-Pakistan intelligence partnership is still in operation despite political tensions.

They made use of Pakistani "spotters" on the ground and demonstrated a level of coordination that both sides have sought to downplay since tensions erupted in January 2011 with the killing of two Pakistanis by a CIA contractor in Lahore.

"Our working relationship is a bit different from our political relationship," the source told Reuters, requesting anonymity. "It's more productive."

The source, who says he runs a network of spotters primarily in North and South Waziristan, described for the first time how U.S.-Pakistani cooperation on strikes works, with his Pakistani agents keeping close tabs on suspected militants and building a pattern of their movements and associations.

"We run a network of human intelligence sources," he said. "Separately, we monitor their cell and satellite phones.

"Thirdly, we run joint monitoring operations with our U.S. and UK friends," he added, noting that cooperation with British intelligence was also extensive.

Pakistani and U.S. intelligence officers, using their own sources, hash out a joint "priority of targets lists" in regular face-to-face meetings, he said.

[menon s]

its only money, honey..... donot let us get entangled in piskology.....
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/pak-m ... ck/902486/

[RajeshA]

To add to the above

Veiled threat: ‘If requested, Ijaz could be put on ECL’

ISLAMABAD: While a defiant Mansoor Ijaz insisted that nothing would stop him from entering Pakistan, Interior Minister Rehman Malik warned that the government will put Ijaz’s name on the Exit Control List, if requested by the Parliamentary Committee on National Security.

If you get in, we will ensure that you don't get out.

Mansoor Ijaz is an American citizen with a lot of support from female wrestling fans. Rehman Malik is issuing an empty threat. They cannot stop him from leaving, if there are no charges against him.

[Suppiah]

Isn't such wrestling against Islam? If so it is aganst Pakistan and hence treacherous. Enough to jail him for life, if not wajibulcattle..

[RajeshA]

Isn't such wrestling against Islam? If so it is aganst Pakistan and hence treacherous. Enough to jail him for life, if not wajibulcattle..

For that Rehman Malik would have to recite the Shariah in Arabic, something he can't do, so the case would fall flat!

[kenop]

Wonder if video conferencing option has featured in the Mansoor Ijaz drama.
If not, then the idea is not to have him testify at all but something else.