PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

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Theo_Fidel

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Theo_Fidel » 21 Jan 2012 06:25

For instance gentle heech, I know you don't post from Panda land. This entire website is banned in Panda land. Bet you did not know that.

So where from comes this personal enlightenment. One wonders. All your info on Panda comes from google chacha, just like us. So cut the crap. Just about everyone on this forum has been to Panda land and knows the situation on the ground personally. So don't get cute.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Hari Seldon » 21 Jan 2012 06:50

^^^ If I didn't know better I would've said heech is on hooch, sir. But then, I really don;t know better now... Anyway, dlone tlaining has hit new highs. The earlier gen dlones are like zlin - puke and scoot. Zero engagement or dog-fight capability. The next gen dlones are actually capable of quasi-intelligent engagement... a new and imploved model has come in, apparently. jai ho.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby sha » 21 Jan 2012 07:18

As a matter of fact, BR forum is not totally baned. Somestimes I can access the wensite, sometimes I can't.
If I fails, I use over the wall software, which is very popular in China (the dammed CPC make Chinese every net users network expert!).
Just my personel expience. I lives in Xi'an and uses Chine Telecom broadband.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby amit » 21 Jan 2012 09:33

Unfortunately we don't have Heech's "decades of personal experience" in China. So what to do, we need to go by what we read on Gogal Uncle.

And so continuing with the Indian tradition of questioning every thing and seeking truth, I came across some facts which make for interesting reading.

First an overall backgrounder which I found on a site called reason.com. I can't vouch for the site, maybe folks here know more. However this short write-up seems to suggest they're a bonafide outfit.

Anyway, getting back to the actual article: End of the Line for the Bullet Train, it has some interesting information on the general state of HSR construction around the world. Some excerpts:

The Obama Administration’s bullet-train dream is dead. Florida Gov. Rick Scott last year rejected $2 billion in federal funds rather than commit the Sunshine State to such an expensive project. California’s high-speed rail effort is in turmoil, recently suffered a purge of top management, and is unlikely to meet its September deadline to break ground on a federally mandated leg universally termed the “train to nowhere.”


Schumer’s photo opp by the side of an existing CSX track highlighted a trait the Empire State’s project shares with California’s: It proposes to destroy a proven business – freight rail – to make room for a bullet train that would not be self-supporting even according to the rosiest estimates.


Bullet trains are having even less luck outside the United States – where, the cognoscenti never tire of reminding us, international sophisticates are way ahead of us Yankee bumpkins. Spain’s high-speed rail system, until recently a model for new bullet train construction (and, to be fair, a line that replaced one of the slowest railways in Europe), is sinking under low ridership and dragging that kingdom even deeper into a swamp of bad public debt.


The point is both in the US and Spain and much of the rest of the world, words like "bad public debt" or "would not be self-supporting even according to the rosiest of estimates" are project killers. However, we know they don't have the same meaning in CCP run China.

However, this what the author has to say about the much vaunted Chinese HSR:

The unkindest cuts of all are occurring in China, whose bullet train once drew hosannas from California governors and bully-worshipping toadies like New York Times columnist Thomas L. Friedman. Rail minister Liu Zhijun, the putative “Father of High-Speed Rail,” was removed from office and arrested last year; Liu’s deputy, “Grand Designer” (and owner of a five-bedroom home on 30,000 square feet in Los Angeles County) Zhang Shuguang, is also facing corruption charges. An early investigation by the Ministry of Rail revealed that the Chinese bullet train’s budgeting is extremely murky (with some parts of the initiative costing two or three times as much as projected); its ridership is low (after only two months of operation, the Beijing-Fuzhou line was quietly shut in 2010); and ticket prices are beyond the means of lower-income people who actually use mass transit. HSR-related debt increased by a factor of 22 over only three years, from 77.1 billion yuan in 2007 to 1.68 trillion in 2010. In July a bullet-train crash in Zhejiang killed 32 people and injured more than 200.


Heech gave a fantastic number for ridership during next week's Spring Festival: 3 billion. (I hope folks understand that means each person in China would have to take at least 2 and half train rides next week). Assuming that number is correct how many of those will travel on HSR?

The rest of the reason.com article talks about the mess in the US with regards to HSR. And you know what, something very familiar to the Chinese case happened in the US also, as per the author:

Meanwhile, the CHSRA’s (California High-Speed Rail Authority) CEO and board chairman have both fled the collapsing project, in a move that neither the Brown nor the Obama Administration appears to have seen coming. The authority is in a dispute with its former PR firm, which was unable to distract public attention from the glaring truth that since 2008 the estimated cost of the project has more than doubled, from around $40 billion to $98.5 billion. (The suspiciously steep increase in projected costs has prompted calls for a new referendum on railway debt, on the grounds that the voters were hoodwinked the first time around.)


Despite all its ills, US is a Democracy. Which is why the project collapsed before all the money was wasted. Unfortunately the Chinese don't have that safety valve.

And yes the author has a juicy quote which should be highlighted.

Railroads have always been favorites of dictators. (Note that nobody was ever brought to a concentration camp on a bus.)


Now let's dig up some more information from a more familiar source, the Wall Street Journal

Their report after the Wenzhou accident in July last year has a lot of interesting details:

However, China's high-speed rail network was in fact built with imported components—including signaling-system parts designed to prevent train collisions—that local engineers couldn't fully understand, according to a review of corporate documents and interviews with more than a dozen rail executives inside and outside China.


An examination of China's use of foreign technology in its bullet-train signal systems highlights deep international distrust over China's industrial model, including weak intellectual-property protections, which can complicate efforts to acquire state-of-the-art technology. {please refer to the article I linked to IP in an earlier post, it talks about precise this thing}

Key signaling systems were assembled by Beijing-based Hollysys Automation Technologies Ltd., one of the few companies China's Ministry of Railways tapped to handle such work. In some cases of the signal systems it supplied, technology branded as proprietary to Hollysys contained circuitry tailor-made by Hitachi Ltd. of Japan to Hollysys specifications, according to people familiar with the situation.

The problem, these people say, is that Hitachi—fearful that Chinese technicians might reverse-engineer and steal the technology—sold components with the inner workings concealed from Hollysys. Hitachi executives say this "black box" design makes gear harder to copy, and also harder to understand, for instance during testing. {Again like I said, it's presumptuous to think Western/Japanese companies are babes in the wood and their IP can be stolen with impunity.}


"It's still generally a mystery how a company like Hollysys could integrate our equipment into a broader safety-signaling system without intimate knowledge of our know-how," a senior Hitachi executive said.


"We aim at the world's top-notch technologies," then-Railways Minister Liu Zhijun declared four years ago. A few months before the July crash, Mr. Liu was fired after China's Communist Party accused him and other top officials of unspecified corruption. Mr. Liu couldn't be located for comment.


July's rail tragedy—in which two bullet trains collided during a storm, sending some cars plunging 65 feet from elevated tracks—is tarnishing China's effort to portray the project as technologically advanced and safety-minded. Among other things, the Ministry of Railways chose not to install lightning rods and surge protectors on some high-speed rail lines even as an industry association recommended doing so on major infrastructure projects, He Jinliang, director of China's National Lightning Protection Technology Standard Committee, said in July.


From the initial days of the high-speed railway program, Beijing turned to local firms, including Hollysys, rather than foreign expertise. Hollysys says it is one of just two companies eligible to supply certain signaling technology for China's fastest trains. Ministry of Railways rules effectively forbid foreign companies from bidding.


Why this preference to Hollysys one might ask? Read on:

Originally part of China's Ministry of Electronics, Hollysys in the 1990s became a privately owned business focused on "controls"—the technology that keeps factory assembly lines humming smoothly. In a Hollysys timeline of its railway achievements, the company says it won its first noteworthy high-speed-rail signaling contracts in 2005, about when China began construction.{I'm sure our Chinese posters can dig up which CCP boss or their children/relatives and/or friends are connected with Hollysys}

A year later, in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Hollysys played down the importance of high-speed-rail signaling by describing it as "adjacent" to core operations in industrial controls. The sector was mentioned just once in a 300-plus page SEC filing in 2006, part of a successful effort by Hollysys to list its shares on Nasdaq through a special-purpose acquisition company, or SPAC, a practice that involves adoption of a current listing by another company.


By late 2008 Beijing was speeding construction of its bullet trains in part to help power the Chinese economy through the global economic slump. Hollysys described itself in regulatory filings as one of just two companies that possessed "the capability" to supply the Ministry of Railways with signals on its fastest lines.

Hollysys became a tech darling and in September 2009 its chief financial officer, Peter Li, speaking to analysts, credited the Ministry of Railways' "very clear mandate of localizing the product." When an analyst asked whether he feared competition, Mr. Li said, "Basically, foreign players are not allowed to bid independently for high-speed-rail projects."


The ministry also played matchmaker for Hollysys. When a leading Italian signaling company, Ansaldo STS, sought a business foothold in China, the Ministry of Railways indicated that it should be in the form of a partnership with Hollysys, according to Ansaldo spokesman Roberto Alatri.

A $97 million contract followed in July 2008 for a Hollysys-Ansaldo consortium to design, build and maintain signal-control systems on China's then-fastest train line, a 459-kilometer section linking the central China cities of Zhengzhou and Xian. The Hollysys portion was $22 million.


Another elaborate ploy to steal IP. However, it's not that simple. Read on...

Hollysys had a longer relationship with Hitachi, which supplied the Chinese company components for high-speed rail signaling starting in 2005, the year Hollysys says it got its start in the business. The main cooperation was on the onboard ATP system, which Hollysys documents describe as components in the nose and tail of trains that act as its "last line of defense in safety."

The Hitachi-made ATP components came with a catch. Two Hitachi executives familiar with the matter said the company adopts what the industry refers to as "black box" security to conceal design secrets by withholding technical blueprints known in Japanese as zumen.

Black boxes make it tough to reverse-engineer the equipment. They can also make it more difficult to troubleshoot the gear, according to executives of several companies familiar with the practice in China.


"Providing zumen means…we completely trust the buyer of our technology," a senior Hitachi executive said, with the understanding that the buyer "would not become a competitive threat in other markets."

Hitachi doesn't always withhold its design secrets. When working with companies elsewhere on a common project, the senior executive said, it will provide the zumen, or blueprints, in some cases.


In an August letter to shareholders, Hollysys Chief Executive Wang Changli cited the "tragic" Wenzhou accident and reiterated that Hollysys equipment wasn't to blame. China's biggest signaling company, Beijing-based China Railway Signal & Communication Corp., originated within China's railways bureaucracy. Shortly after the crash, a CRSC unit, Beijing National Railway Research & Design Institute of Signal and Communication, issued a statement of "sorrow" and pledged to "shoulder our responsibility."{I wonder what that means?}

CRSC hasn't commented about the accident directly, aside from a statement Aug. 23 stating that its top executive, 55-year-old Ma Cheng, collapsed and died during questioning by crash investigators.


The point is Heech, you may be gung ho about HSR in China. But do expect to get large doses of reality check when you share that gung ho feeling on this forum. We argumentative Indians don't take much at face value. Heck just go through the other threads and see how the Indian Government and various state institutions are treated. That's the way we are.

Meanwhile Gong Xi Fa Chai! Wish you a prosperous Year of the Dragon, minus any stress! :-)

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby ashi » 21 Jan 2012 14:23

Theo_Fidel wrote:For instance gentle heech, I know you don't post from Panda land. This entire website is banned in Panda land. Bet you did not know that.

So where from comes this personal enlightenment. One wonders. All your info on Panda comes from google chacha, just like us. So cut the crap. Just about everyone on this forum has been to Panda land and knows the situation on the ground personally. So don't get cute.


Bull S. I access BR from Chengdu all the time.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby ashi » 21 Jan 2012 14:30

heech wrote:
But that's only part of the story. The lines are already operating are some of the "best" lines, most likely to return operating profit. The real question is what comes next... a lot of lines are still in construction as we speak. Chinese rail construction is slowing down dramatically this year, partly due to the crash last year, and partly due to just a general rethink about the pace/direction of development. As a result, there are a lot of half-finished projects by the Chinese rail ministry on life support... estimates are 70%+ of railway construction projects were forcibly halted late last year due to capital shortages. The rail ministry barely won another 200 billion RMB ($30 billion USD) from banks + investors near the end of the year, enough to keep new construction afloat. The rail ministry's budget in 2012 is for 400 billion RMB (about $75 billion USD) of construction.

So, there are a lot of doubts, concerns, and fears in Chinese railway land. Everyone is anxiously waiting to see exactly what kind of returns the current HSR lines are able to generate. The Wuhan/Guangdong line was reportedly showing 50% YoY growth in passenger traffic... so if that continues across all lines, then obviously a lot of problems are solved. But if the projections are wrong, and my optimism is misplaced, then you can expect China's HSR construction to slow dramatically in the near future.


Having riding on HSR many times (Guangzhou to Wuhan, Shanghai to Hanzhou), I have no questions these lines will be very successful. The trains half to 3/4 full most of the time (empty seats are mostly in first class), and sometimes is even hard to get a standing ticket.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby harbans » 21 Jan 2012 16:02

For instance gentle heech, I know you don't post from Panda land. This entire website is banned in Panda land. Bet you did not know that.


Some places it is blocked. But some places it is accessible. Where it is accessible it sure is being monitored very carefully.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Christopher Sidor » 21 Jan 2012 19:14

ashi wrote:Having riding on HSR many times (Guangzhou to Wuhan, Shanghai to Hanzhou), I have no questions these lines will be very successful. The trains half to 3/4 full most of the time (empty seats are mostly in first class), and sometimes is even hard to get a standing ticket.


Ashi are you telling me that there are tickets, in China's HSR, where one has to stand in a train that is going at 200+ kmph ??
:eek: :eek: :eek:

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Sri » 21 Jan 2012 19:30

ashi wrote:Having riding on HSR many times (Guangzhou to Wuhan, Shanghai to Hanzhou), I have no questions these lines will be very successful. The trains half to 3/4 full most of the time (empty seats are mostly in first class), and sometimes is even hard to get a standing ticket.


Guys there is no way one can have standing tickets in HSR. Ashi you must be confused or someone sold you normal train tickets at HSR rates....

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby gakakkad » 21 Jan 2012 19:37

>>Guys there is no way one can have standing tickets in HSR. Ashi you must be confused or someone sold you normal train tickets at HSR rates....

Might be a Chinese innovation . I am looking forward to the Chinis devising standing tickets for airlines . :)

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby wrdos » 21 Jan 2012 19:50

I have used HSR about 8 or 9 times. About 3 times, there were somebody standing around me and in fact i myself stood at least once also.

Sure for every ticket of HSR, you are assigned and guaranteed a seat. However, e.g., sometimes when you are hurry to go to Shanghai from Beijing and there are no seat available through the whole trip, you can still buy a ticket to a station between, like Jinan, and then pay the difference on board. In such cases, of course, you have to give ur seat to the right person after arriving at Jinan station, and then stand the left trip to Shanghai.Such situation is very common now.

HSR trains are becoming more and more popular now. Chinese HSR ticket is about 1/4 of the price of the always crowded Japanese Shinkansen. Although the average urban Chinese income was about only 1/6 of Japan, the 6 times population is simply more than enough to full the HSR trains.

To Mr. Christopher Sidor
HSR trains are much smoother and more steady than an ordinary subway train. If you can stand on a subway, you can stand on an HSR train and more confidently.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby wrdos » 21 Jan 2012 19:53

Sri wrote:
ashi wrote:Having riding on HSR many times (Guangzhou to Wuhan, Shanghai to Hanzhou), I have no questions these lines will be very successful. The trains half to 3/4 full most of the time (empty seats are mostly in first class), and sometimes is even hard to get a standing ticket.


Guys there is no way one can have standing tickets in HSR. Ashi you must be confused or someone sold you normal train tickets at HSR rates....


Hmm, in peak time, hundreds of passengers have to stand on Shinkansen in Japan too. Sir, make more research before making conclusions pls.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby chola » 21 Jan 2012 20:05

Wondering whether Panda can pay for HSR is a worthless endeavor. They've already built it. You are applying first world problems where development is already at such a level that a high speed railroad system can be considered overkill and waste of money.

You cannot apply that kind of first world logic to a piss-poor nation like China. The biggest problem of third world nations is having infrastructure built at all because they can not raise the initial funds.

In China, they build stuff everywhere so whether or not these things can pay for themselves are besides the point. The fact that the HSR was built is already an asset the Panda has over every other one of its third world peers. In chiniland, once something is built it belongs to government and if there are losses, their citizens eat it. But the infrastructure remains and the worse part is it will be there for use if and when the commies go away.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Rishirishi » 21 Jan 2012 21:25

I have my self used the HSR system, and must say it is a very good thing. Maybe not all of the lines will be profitable or break even. But let me ask.
Does Indias subsidy to ration system of 700 000 000 000 rupees (70K Crores, or 14billion dollar) make any profit.

China is investing heavily in infrastructure. A lions share of the investments are contributing to Chinas increase in productivity. Of course when you invest several hundred billion dollars, you must expect a few billion do be invested in failed projects.

Frankly, if there is something India can learn from China, it is the way government has invested in infrastructure.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Christopher Sidor » 21 Jan 2012 21:57

wrdos wrote:I have used HSR about 8 or 9 times. About 3 times, there were somebody standing around me and in fact i myself stood at least once also.

Sure for every ticket of HSR, you are assigned and guaranteed a seat. However, e.g., sometimes when you are hurry to go to Shanghai from Beijing and there are no seat available through the whole trip, you can still buy a ticket to a station between, like Jinan, and then pay the difference on board. In such cases, of course, you have to give ur seat to the right person after arriving at Jinan station, and then stand the left trip to Shanghai.Such situation is very common now.

HSR trains are becoming more and more popular now. Chinese HSR ticket is about 1/4 of the price of the always crowded Japanese Shinkansen. Although the average urban Chinese income was about only 1/6 of Japan, the 6 times population is simply more than enough to full the HSR trains.

To Mr. Christopher Sidor
HSR trains are much smoother and more steady than an ordinary subway train. If you can stand on a subway, you can stand on an HSR train and more confidently.

Thanks wrdos for the clarification. Looking at the face value of what you have said, this seems very similar to what we have on our over crowded Indian Railways.

What I am troubled is the Japanese parallel. Japan had also created marvelous HSR. But even till this date, these trains have not broken even, financially I mean. There was a article which had claimed, that if we take depreciation, interest and running cost, then Japans HSR, i.e. bullet trains, will never break even. In fact one is troubled when the author of the article says
Sensible Politics and Transport Theories ? - Japans National Railways in the 20th Century wrote:While transportation has contributed to Japan's economic development, it has also produced negative results - JNR debt which mushroomed in the late 20th century. Japan's financial resources are limited, and this debt seriously hampers transport infrastructure investments in the 21st century.

There are other articles which have documented the debt burden due to HSR.

This does not off course detract us from the low-environmental operating costs of HSR. For example
Spain’s High-Speed Rail Offers Guideposts for U.S. --- NY Times Dated 29-May-2009 wrote:The International Union of Railways says a high-speed train can carry eight times as many passengers as an airplane over a given distance, using the same amount of energy and emitting a quarter of the carbon dioxide for each passenger.


Standing on HSR is not safe, not by any yardstick. In subway train we can stand, because the speed rarely exceeds 100 kmph. Doing the same at 200+ kmph is hazardous to say the least. But to each his own.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Christopher Sidor » 21 Jan 2012 22:07

Rishirishi wrote:I have my self used the HSR system, and must say it is a very good thing. Maybe not all of the lines will be profitable or break even. But let me ask.
Does Indias subsidy to ration system of 700 000 000 000 rupees (70K Crores, or 14billion dollar) make any profit.

China is investing heavily in infrastructure. A lions share of the investments are contributing to Chinas increase in productivity. Of course when you invest several hundred billion dollars, you must expect a few billion do be invested in failed projects.

Frankly, if there is something India can learn from China, it is the way government has invested in infrastructure.


If there is something worthy of emulating about the path which China has undertaken it is this, do not follow. We should learn about what China has done. But not copy it. Chinese are making massive mistakes, just like Japan and parts of Europe have done.

Capital is expensive and should not be wasted, but should be put to use which have a Reasonable Rate of Return. Creating HSR with current Railway systems and not waiting till Maglev technology actually matures is a horrid waste. There are millions such examples. In fact we should not forget about the 50+ million homes which are vacant in China, but still people are not able to get decent homes. The list is endless and goes on and on.

Theo_Fidel

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Theo_Fidel » 21 Jan 2012 22:47

Rishirishi wrote:Does Indias subsidy to ration system of 700 000 000 000 rupees (70K Crores, or 14billion dollar) make any profit.


It doesn't. But it is only about $15 Billion per year. There is no way we can reduce it to less than $10 Billion in a democracy. Even if $5 Billion is transferred to railway infrastructure, it would be 100 years before we build even 10,000 km of HSR. So it is an incorrect observation.

The thing about Panda is that capital is cheap because the people have Zero investment options. They are forced to deposit their money at below inflation rate accounts so Panda overlords can then splurge as they feel like. What you are really seeing is confiscated money being splurged because the overlords don't care about ROI. HSR type profligacy is only possible in an effectively 0% interest money environment.

India has plenty of capital now but it is expensive. Interest rates of 7%+. People have to be careful with investments. We will NEVER be a 0% interest economy hence quite simply can not afford these things. These things will never happen this way in India. Take the Freight Corridors. Here we are 8 years later and the economic imperative is still not clear. We continue on the project slowly.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Also in this crazy talk what is forgotten is the effective passenger transport numbers. Now IR is shoddy, slow, uncomfortable and cheap. But....

Indian Rail - 925 Billion passenger KM.
China Rail - 875 Billion passenger KM.

Indian Railway - 8.03 Billion Passengers annually
China Railway - 1.80 Billion passengers annually

This includes HSR and excludes Metro's.

IR effectively transports more passengers than Panda at 1/100th the investment level. Cost are incredibly cheap as well. It does this by running 24+ coach trains, now 28+ coach trains are on their way. A single train in crush mode can transport 5,000 passengers. In dense crush mode 10,000+. It also generates incredible numbers of local trips. Every village and town has a train connection that passengers use to full capacity. HSR could never replace this functionality.

I actuality HSR will see real passenger numbers decline. Local passengers are eliminated in favor of long distance ones, no questions asked. The question is if we go this route or not.

Where Panda uses their Railway is in freight. Freight is given preference over passengers. In India it is the other way around.

{deleted}
Last edited by Suraj on 22 Jan 2012 00:53, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Please report posts instead of baiting anyone.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby chola » 21 Jan 2012 22:55

Christopher Sidor wrote:
If there is something worthy of emulating about the path which China has undertaken it is this, do not follow. We should learn about what China has done. But not copy it. Chinese are making massive mistakes, just like Japan and parts of Europe have done.


I would love the day that India can make the same mistakes as Japan or Europe.

Do you understand what this means? It means your society has reached the point that it can build things on surplus scale. It means you have resources to waste. Look at the per capita income of Japan or any of the nations in Europe.

The so-called "Lost Decade" did not change the fact that Japan is still one of the wealthiest nations on earth. It is stupid to worry about first world problems when we cannot build ourselves out of the third world.

Capital is expensive and should not be wasted, but should be put to use which have a Reasonable Rate of Return. Creating HSR with current Railway systems and not waiting till Maglev technology actually matures is a horrid waste. There are millions such examples. In fact we should not forget about the 50+ million homes which are vacant in China, but still people are not able to get decent homes. The list is endless and goes on and on.


Capital is expensive and should not be wasted, true. But for India that is like a poor man worrying about money he does not have. The highest problem is getting capital to build infrastructure! So we should learn how they got to the point where they have capital to blow.

Waiting for Maglev to mature might mean waiting for the next 100 years. What do we do in the mean time? Practically every major transportation in the West, Japan and the Far East is subsidized. This includes highways, rail (traditional and high speed) and metros/subways. I believe only Hong Kong has a profitable metro. Transportation is subsidized by the state so that the economy can be stimulated. Again, I can only wish that India could be like Japan and Europe.

As far as 50 million vacant homes in China, what do you think would happen if there were 50 million vacant homes in India or anywhere else outside the developed West? They would be overrun with squatters. Why would China be any different?

Again don't attribute the problems of the first world where capital is so easily raised that they can out build demand. China is one billion piss poor people and 300 million urbanites. Every home they create - even if it is a shack and the initial investor got screwed - will be used at some point. If that home is not used then China would be at the same level as Japan where people are so wealthy that they no longer need housing. That is not the case in piss poor China. Desperate people without homes will squat, they don't just lie out on the street and die while a home lies vacant in front of them.

What we want to learn is how China got to the point where it can splurge on infrastructure like Japan and Europe.

Theo_Fidel

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Theo_Fidel » 21 Jan 2012 23:23

chola wrote:Capital is expensive and should not be wasted, true. But for India that is like a poor man worrying about money he does not have. The highest problem is getting capital to build infrastructure! So we should learn how they got to the point where they have capital to blow.


If you ask me they don't have capital to blow. The end result of this foolishness is that their people don't get the ROI they need to retire and must work till they die. Not only that the next generation is foisted with a shoddy construction that takes $ Trillions to maintain and keep in repair.

Chola, your think is in quarter to quarter basis from your analyst mind. We have seen the trouble the world gets into with that sort of thinking.

chola wrote:China is one billion piss poor people and 300 million urbanites.


Now you are being inconsistent. First you said that we are ignoring this monumentally rich country. Now they are piss poor. Which is it.

From what I have seen the average small town Chinese lives relatively well. He not moving into a 15 floor soul less apartment block 50 km from his job. Hence the empty cities.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby chola » 22 Jan 2012 00:39

Theo_Fidel wrote:If you ask me they don't have capital to blow.


Yes, they do. They're blowing it right now. You can see it in their infrastructure. If they have no capital then the buildings, rails and airports will not be there.

The end result of this foolishness is that their people don't get the ROI they need to retire and must work till they die. Not only that the next generation is foisted with a shoddy construction that takes $ Trillions to maintain and keep in repair.


The average denizens of most nations in the third world, India included, must work until they die anyways. Retirement is pretty much a first world perk. The difference is the chinis have the HSR, airports and tons and tons of infrastructure. Even if they are shoddy they have it.

Chola, your think is in quarter to quarter basis from your analyst mind. We have seen the trouble the world gets into with that sort of thinking.


Quarter to quarter as well as decade to decade. Infrastructure by nature is long term. They have it and we should too.

Now you are being inconsistent. First you said that we are ignoring this monumentally rich country. Now they are piss poor. Which is it.


No, I am very consistent. I used that term for years and in this very thread.

Again, Chiniland is 1 billion piss poor peasants and 300 million city dwellers that spend nearly as much as the US. When the US and Japan average $48K and $41K per person and the PRC averages less than $5k then it is piss poor.

When MNCs like GM, VW sell more cars and fried chicken in China than the US and Germany then that market is massive. It is not "monumentally rich." It will be "monumentally rich" if and when it reaches half the per capita of the US. This is what the MNC are positioning themselves for.

The piss poor segment of pandaland and its lack of sophistication gave Korean firms a leg up against more well known Japanese and Western firms. It lack of sophistication is providing the same sort of opportunity for Thai and Taiwanese firms. It is doing that for Mahindra and Mahindra as well.

What part of this do you not understand?

From what I have seen the average small town Chinese lives relatively well. He not moving into a 15 floor soul less apartment block 50 km from his job. Hence the empty cities.


The average chinese peasant is like an African or a bihari. He hates his life in the countryside and will gladly enter a sweat shop because as horrible as that is, it is still better in the city. Where the hell do you think all the hundreds of millions of migrant workers come from? They are treated as lower castes in the city by urban dwellers who themselves worship the Japanese and Koreans who are in turn wealthier and more sophisticated than them. For most chini, it is anything but the countryside.

If chiniland truly does have empty cities that remain that way then it is wealthier than the US and Japan even those nations cannot afford empty cities that no one lives in. Look back in 10 years, they will be full. If not by the wealthy then by the squatters. Nothing goes to waste in a nation where the average person makes 1/10th that of the US and Japan.

Indians must not be content to have nothing just because they think it would be a waste. We think this way and we will always have nothing. Yes, it is a goddamn waste to anything because eventually everything man-made will breakdown.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Gus » 22 Jan 2012 01:04

sha wrote:As a matter of fact, BR forum is not totally baned. Somestimes I can access the wensite, sometimes I can't.
If I fails, I use over the wall software, which is very popular in China (the dammed CPC make Chinese every net users network expert!).
Just my personel expience. I lives in Xi'an and uses Chine Telecom broadband.


Many moons back an interesting article was posted here on how the censorship works. Apparently, it is a deliberate ploy to keep things this way..not always banned..but not regular access either. This creates some self-censorship.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby VikramS » 22 Jan 2012 02:32

chola:

The point of the whole debate is not whether HSR is desirable but whether the HSR is desirable at any cost.

The cost being paid in the PRC is:

-> Huge amount of debt which may require extensive subsidies
-> As heech put it, drying up of capital for the projects under construction (future underinvestment)
-> And what affects the most, the social-economic cost of perennial negative real interest rates for the masses.

Note that in the 21st century the reaction time of markets has shortened. What would take months now takes days; changes that happened over decades will happen over years.

The success of the past three decades has given the CPC a few years of "Get Out Of Jail" cards.

What happens when the current generation of workers get old and find their savings our worth significantly less, what they put in to buy that house is gone, and their single child works far away and can not afford to support them.

What happens when the CPC can no longer acquire land for free or the cost of capital starts going up? Can the investment driven 10% GDP growth be sustained? And if it can not what happens to the projections of utilization of the infrastructure which has been created.

zlin: Your posts will be much better appreciated if you do not post stuff about India here. I think most Indians are acutely aware of the problems in India. I have liked all the positive stuff you post about China; do not appreciate the posts about India since they derail the thread. In that particular case, the first video is a great example of a government which can provide enouh subsidized flights for Haj pilgrims to Mecca but can not even run enough trains for dharmic pilgrims within India; the vote-bank politics.

Theo_Fidel

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Theo_Fidel » 22 Jan 2012 04:08

chola wrote: The average chinese peasant is like an African or a bihari. He hates his life in the countryside and will gladly enter a sweat shop because as horrible as that is, it is still better in the city. Where the hell do you think all the hundreds of millions of migrant workers come from? They are treated as lower castes in the city by urban dwellers who themselves worship the Japanese and Koreans who are in turn wealthier and more sophisticated than them. For most chini, it is anything but the countryside.

If chiniland truly does have empty cities that remain that way then it is wealthier than the US and Japan even those nations cannot afford empty cities that no one lives in. Look back in 10 years, they will be full. If not by the wealthy then by the squatters. Nothing goes to waste in a nation where the average person makes 1/10th that of the US and Japan.

Indians must not be content to have nothing just because they think it would be a waste. We think this way and we will always have nothing. Yes, it is a goddamn waste to anything because eventually everything man-made will breakdown.


This is not fully correct. Panda does not invest in interior regions so the young have no means of making money. They are forced to leave their parents behind and move to cities to make money. They leave their own children back home with grandparents and when their parents die they move back to the farm with their children if they can. It is not that life is so miserable in rural areas as there is no investment at all.

The average Chinese would love to stay back on his farm if he could find jobs near by. But this is not Panda policy.

Don't worry about India. We will be rich soon. And we don't need your hot money investment dollars either. We are penny pinching misers and always worry about ROI and getting our money back. I get the feeling you don't understand why India is becoming rich and how things are being built in India. There are a lot of people who get this weak kneed response from envying Panda. I don't. There may be profits there but it is not certain and there is plenty of ways to make money in desh. If I have loose money I prefer to put it in ICICI bank deposit for 7.65% interest rate. Panda with its risky gol-mal and 0% interest leaves me scratching my head.

We will have HSR and spanking new airports, I suspect you havn't looked recently to how many are being built in India, spanking new highways and complete city redevelopment. I swear Chennai was unrecognizable when I went there this time. But it will happen only when demand is certain and makes financial sense.

If you are looking for India to turn in Panda like soulless apartment block paradise, it will never happen. No country in the world has got rich by investing elsewhere. We will get rich by investing in India. Confiscating peoples money is not the answer. And you are wrong the people can not retire in India. Every other home owner in Chennai is retired and depends on rental income for his retirement.

BTW Panda is not 300 million urban well off vs 900 million piss poor. Panda is more like 800-900 million average, 10 million stinking rich (read CPC) and 300 million destitute class. They are urban majority now and are over 700 million just in cities. You are blowing smoke if you think a population of 300 million is buying 20 million cars per year.
Last edited by Theo_Fidel on 22 Jan 2012 04:27, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Dhiman » 22 Jan 2012 04:27

zlin wrote:Actually "More than 3,500 people died on the Mumbai suburban railway tracks annually due to unsafe riding on trains or trespassing on railway tracks or as a result of suicide attempts. " according to wiki. Even the whole Chinese HSR system in total will never have a record even close to that.


Correct Sir and that is why I find this whole debate on HSR somewhat redundant. If the Chinese have money they are free to waste it anyway they please.

Gus wrote:
sha wrote:As a matter of fact, BR forum is not totally baned. Somestimes I can access the wensite, sometimes I can't.
If I fails, I use over the wall software, which is very popular in China (the dammed CPC make Chinese every net users network expert!).
Just my personel expience. I lives in Xi'an and uses Chine Telecom broadband.


Many moons back an interesting article was posted here on how the censorship works. Apparently, it is a deliberate ploy to keep things this way..not always banned..but not regular access either. This creates some self-censorship.


Don't know about Mainland, but BRF is definitely open in Hong Kong.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby rgsrini » 22 Jan 2012 09:43

Dhiman,
I was able to access the entire site from HongKong everytime I visited there. I had some issues in Beijing and Shanghai though. The main site "www.bharat-rakshak.com" was not accessible. But "forums.bharat-rakshak.com" was accessible. This was about 3 to 4 years back.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Sri » 22 Jan 2012 10:25

wrdos wrote:
Sri wrote:
Guys there is no way one can have standing tickets in HSR. Ashi you must be confused or someone sold you normal train tickets at HSR rates....


Hmm, in peak time, hundreds of passengers have to stand on Shinkansen in Japan too. Sir, make more research before making conclusions pls.



There are No standing tickets on HSR in China. Please do go and check. I am not saying whether people stand or not. There are standing tickets on other trains that's why i thought a fellow chinese brfite got cheated (that too happens a lot in China).

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby ashi » 22 Jan 2012 12:26

Sri wrote:

There are No standing tickets on HSR in China. Please do go and check. I am not saying whether people stand or not. There are standing tickets on other trains that's why i thought a fellow chinese brfite got cheated (that too happens a lot in China).


There is. If you can read Chinese, see this link.

http://zhidao.baidu.com/question/323325 ... ?an=0&si=1

This train runs up to 200KM. That still qualifies as a HSR.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby chola » 22 Jan 2012 18:55

Theo_Fidel wrote:
This is not fully correct. Panda does not invest in interior regions so the young have no means of making money.


There is no means of making money in rural areas in the third world. China is no different. It doesn't matter if it is China, India or Africa. That is why we are third world nations.

Rural areas are expected to be fed by their own land. These piss poor peasants will be flooding the cities in the coming decades and your vacant homes will be inundated with people.

You do not even understand the economics behind why there are the West and Japan on one hand and China and India on the other.


The average Chinese would love to stay back on his farm if he could find jobs near by. But this is not Panda policy.


If China had enough resources to create jobs for the peasant class then it can no longer be classified as developing. Every nation would love to be able to provide for the average person in the village.

Don't worry about India. We will be rich soon.


I do worry about India. Because of jingos like you we will always be a step behind.

And we don't need your hot money investment dollars either.


Yes, you do. Were it not the for NRIs and our remittances, India would have defaulted on its international obligations like what nearly happened in 1991. We have a payment imbalance my friend.

We are penny pinching misers and always worry about ROI and getting our money back. I get the feeling you don't understand why India is becoming rich and how things are being built in India. There are a lot of people who get this weak kneed response from envying Panda. I don't.


I know exactly how India is becoming wealthier. Not nearly wealthy. Not nearly rich. India has become wealthier because Y2K allowed Western firms to see the talent of the Indian programmer. Without the jump start beginning in the late 1990s in the years before Y2K, we would have muddled on as we have always done. It certainly didn't come from the GOI who couldn't help us with enough infrastructure because it can never raise the money. It was Wipro, Tata and Infosys kickstarting the Indian economy.

The only one with a weak kneed response from envying the Panda is you. Your insistence on exchanging worthless insults with their trolls doesn't increase our understanding of their economy. A one-liner about phoney statistics or potempkin villages doesn't change the fact that Tata sells 10 times more Land Rovers and Jaguars in China than in India. If you want to be serious about this then look at the sales numbers which is what MNCs do.

If the only reason for us to have a PRC economy thread in BR is to bash the chinkies then don't bother to discuss the numbers at all and I'll desist from the conversation (as I have for six years previous.)

If you are looking for India to turn in Panda like soulless apartment block paradise, it will never happen. No country in the world has got rich by investing elsewhere. We will get rich by investing in India.


You still have no idea. Who said that India needs to invest in China? Absolutely, every bit of investment should go into India. The PRC have more foreign investment than it knows what to do with. They have $3.3T forex stash and it's permanent unlike the $300B Indian one which is mainly liquid FII.

But what you could do is investigate the market like businesses from Taiwan, Thailand and the rest of SE Asia and attack the chini market.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby svinayak » 22 Jan 2012 19:48

I know exactly how India is becoming wealthier. Not nearly wealthy. Not nearly rich. India has become wealthier because Y2K allowed Western firms to see the talent of the Indian programmer. Without the jump start beginning in the late 1990s in the years before Y2K, we would have muddled on as we have always done. It certainly didn't come from the GOI who couldn't help us with enough infrastructure because it can never raise the money. It was Wipro, Tata and Infosys kickstarting the Indian economy.


They had suppressed Indian ecpertise and talent for the more than 20 years. I talked to many of the US companies before Y2K and they had known before and told that they are not allowed to promote Indian talent.

As part of the geopoltcal balance once China became global trading country in 2000 with WTO they also allowed India into global industry. This is a balance going on for the last 40 years with PRC being given a lead by about 5 to 10 years.

The demographics and current status the economy are considered for this strategy. India is kept lagging behind in tech and manpiwer traning. India is deliberately kept away from the supply chain for the electronics and hardware industry. It has been well planned for the last 30 years

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby chola » 22 Jan 2012 20:21

Acharya wrote:The demographics and current status the economy are considered for this strategy. India is kept lagging behind in tech and manpiwer traning. India is deliberately kept away from the supply chain for the electronics and hardware industry. It has been well planned for the last 30 years


No one kept the India away from the supply chain for the electronics and hardware industry. Any idiot would have seen what was happening in the 1960s with Japan, Taiwan and Hong Kong. China was closed during that time by the communists. It was there for the taking. But the Nehru clan decided to close off the rest of the world. It was this stupidity that gave away the farm.

Until 1978, India was wealthier than China. Once they hooked into the global trading system they've been lapping us ever since.

We are doing the same thing again in this century. The greatest economic engine in the coming years is integration of East Asia and the Japs, Koreans and Westerners are hooked in. Just as the manufacturing chain was set up during the last century to supply the US, the new chain is being set up to supply China. Anyone in international business can see it in the numbers.

No matter how people like Theoji want to wish this away, this is happening across the boardrooms of corporate America, Europe and East Asia. Will we be derailed by another generation of Nehrus who put their heads in the sand?

Thank God that the Japanese are giving us a seat in the East Asian Summit. India by all rights should be the manufacturing capital in Asia. It still can be but it can't if it is not in the chini market. You cannot forgo the world's largest market and be successful against other global companies who are.

This will become worse if the chicommies ever loosen their grip and their private entrepreneurs take off like Taiwan or South Korea. There are projects on the planning boards for the Fortune 500 for exactly this kind of scenario. Just as there are for eventual growth of the Indian market. I can tell you the projections for the chini market are already monstrous even without the turn towards free market for the private entrepreneurs.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby JwalaMukhi » 22 Jan 2012 22:38

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/22/busin ... class.html
For years, cellphone makers had avoided using glass because it required precision in cutting and grinding that was extremely difficult to achieve. Apple had already selected an American company, Corning Inc., to manufacture large panes of strengthened glass. But figuring out how to cut those panes into millions of iPhone screens required finding an empty cutting plant, hundreds of pieces of glass to use in experiments and an army of midlevel engineers. It would cost a fortune simply to prepare.

Then a bid for the work arrived from a Chinese factory.

When an Apple team visited, the Chinese plant’s owners were already constructing a new wing. “This is in case you give us the contract,” the manager said, according to a former Apple executive. The Chinese government had agreed to underwrite costs for numerous industries, and those subsidies had trickled down to the glass-cutting factory. It had a warehouse filled with glass samples available to Apple, free of charge. The owners made engineers available at almost no cost. They had built on-site dormitories so employees would be available 24 hours a day.

The Chinese plant got the job.

“The entire supply chain is in China now,” said another former high-ranking Apple executive. “You need a thousand rubber gaskets? That’s the factory next door. You need a million screws? That factory is a block away. You need that screw made a little bit different? It will take three hours.”

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Theo_Fidel » 22 Jan 2012 22:49

chola wrote:You still have no idea. Who said that India needs to invest in China? Absolutely, every bit of investment should go into India. The PRC have more foreign investment than it knows what to do with. They have $3.3T forex stash and it's permanent unlike the $300B Indian one which is mainly liquid FII.

But what you could do is investigate the market like businesses from Taiwan, Thailand and the rest of SE Asia and attack the chini market.


And how would this be done without investing in China. I have pointed out serious inconsistencies in your statements and you still havn't addressed them beyond 'one liners'. You last comment too is filled with such inconsistencies.

Before you start attacking others consider the possibility that you might be wrong and your entire thesis might be wrong. That you might not know everything and it is possible you know nothing. That the reason you love panda is because your job depends on it. The reason I say the things I do is because I have a perspective you don't. At least consider the possibility of these things. You are certain you are right and everyone else is wrong and when challenged you get bent out of shape. Just like the paid Panda faction here mind you.

To think that India will get rich because of foreign corporate boardrooms is laughable. India is more than Infosys and Wipro. On the ground in India they are invisible. Even their IT export contribution is relatively small. More IT export takes place at the numerous tiny call center type shops around the country.

Your thesis that India is getting rich because of the Y2K money is quite laughable. It is 11 years later. India's GDP in 200 was $400 Billion. GDP today is $2 Trillion.

At the risk of going OT, let me tell you why India is getting rich.

- Our savings rate has risen from 18% in 1980 to 35%+ in 2011.
- Our investment in infrastructure has risen from 4% to roughly 9% over the same period.
- Our dependency ratio is declining from 80% in 1980 to 55% right now to 40% in 2035.
- Construction has grown from 2% of GDP to 8% of GDP.
- Our literacy rate has grown from 32% to 74% at last census.
- Female literacy is up from 19% to 55%. And rising fast.
- Under 5 mortality has reduced from 350 per thousand to 60 per thousand.
- Power capacity has gone from 40,000 MW to 200,000 MW and rising fast.
- Coal production is up from 30 Million tonnes to 600 Million.

I'd say your thesis that India is getting rich because of Y2K is bunkety. But I'm too nice. :P

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby VikramS » 23 Jan 2012 00:24

chola:

You continue to repeat the same statements without answering any critical questions. In fact you are behaving so much like the drones; tom-toming the same line and just ignoring the more detailed questions.

If you have any H&D (could not resist), can you give me the answer to the following:

(a) What percentage of imports from Jap/Soko/Taiwan are components or partially finished items, to be used in the final assembly in China.
AND
(b) How much of the final assembled product consumed in China and how much of it is meant for the global export market.

A corollary to (b) of course will be the value-add during the re-export, which is proportional to money which the Chinese make during the import->assemble->re-export process.


And you still have not given any specifics about which Indian companies could succeed in Panda Land, especially with the hidden hand of the state not welcoming. You blame jingo-giri when it has been repeatedly pointed out that it is not jingo-giri but cold hard facts on the ground which are responsible for the success or the lack thereof Indian businesses in China.

All the examples you have given of foreign success are established brands branching out to the Chinese market while they build up their manufacturing bases there.


BTW, ignore AcharyaJi' at your own peril. He has probably forgotten more in his life, than what I (and likely you) know. It has taken me more than a decade (I first came to BR just prior to Kargil) to get a sense of what he means. The decisions made at the highest level are often driven by baser instincts; and those instincts are often governed by the not-so-conscious part of the human psyche.

That is why image and face matters. And that is why LJR, Gucci, BMW sell so much in China. BTW, do you wonder why Volkswagon became the Maruti Suzuki of PRC when Asian brands were so much closer.

And when you make statements like Y2K and Indian programmers being responsible for Indian growth, you are doing your credibility a disservice. In fact you act as many condescending Westerners do, attributing Indian growth as beholden to the IT/Call-Centers they so generously donated to India.

How much of India's GDP comes from the export of programming and the services in any way? Do you think that the economic reforms did not have anything to do with unleashing Indian entrepreneurial talent within India?

The Discovery of Indian Talent did not happen over night. It happened over a generation where Indian scientists immigrated and established themselves overcoming intense ignorance, and sometimes downright prejudice. It also came at a point where IT was crossing the chasm as they would say. The cost of computing was plummeting and computing was becoming ubiquitous.

That transformation could not have happened without the cost of IT plummeting, and that would not have happened if they kept paying anyone who could type $200K/year. Just look at the rise and the fall of Sun Microsystems. What happened in hardware, had to happen in the software side also, and the only way it could happen was with the lower cost labor pool. It was a matter of chance that India offered that English speaking pool, and having followed the Western diktat in 1991, was now being given some rewards.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby shyam » 23 Jan 2012 04:22

Just curious...

Do chinese airlines sell standing tickets, in case there are not enough planes?

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Yagnasri » 23 Jan 2012 04:44

Does China enjoys any additional freedom ( than WTO guidelines allow to other countries like India) in exports to US?

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Abhijeet » 23 Jan 2012 15:12

JwalaMukhi wrote:http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/22/business/apple-america-and-a-squeezed-middle-class.html


It's unfortunate that India is not a part of this amazing new supply chain (I say that without irony -- it truly is amazing).

The article talks about China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Singapore -- India seems completely excluded.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Hari Seldon » 23 Jan 2012 17:20

Abhijeet wrote:It's unfortunate that India is not a part of this amazing new supply chain (I say that without irony -- it truly is amazing).

The article talks about China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Singapore -- India seems completely excluded.


Agreed. Needs the vision thing and the perseverance thing in the top leadership in either the center or the states for that to happen.

Not the bunch of jokers running the show into the ground currently in Delhi but more sober, serious folks with real understanding of Indian issues and real mass base and support from the electorate.

Good news is such mass leaders with vision exist and have demonstrated their competence and record again and again in the states. Bad news is all it takes to stymie them is side-track diversions relating to sham-sekularism and the like. I'm willing to overlook warts and all of the serious, progress-minded folk and vote them into power rather than continue dithering under the current corrupt clownish regime.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby ArmenT » 23 Jan 2012 17:34

I'd posted earlier about a list of Apple suppliers in the phone and gizmo thread. That list comprises all the companies that supply approx. 97% of all the components that Apple buys. It is interesting to note that most of the companies on that list are NOT from mainland China, but many have a division located in China, in order to be closer to the final assemblers.

Theo_Fidel

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Theo_Fidel » 23 Jan 2012 21:19

Is there a similar breakdown for the software suppliers?

But yes it is unfortunate that India does not figure into the technology component of those companies. But we are not a high technology country yet. So no surprise. Much of the technology I would assume is fully patent protected. Esp. info on how it works and how to improve it.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby heech » 24 Jan 2012 01:39

Theo_Fidel wrote:For instance gentle heech, I know you don't post from Panda land. This entire website is banned in Panda land. Bet you did not know that.

So where from comes this personal enlightenment. One wonders. All your info on Panda comes from google chacha, just like us. So cut the crap. Just about everyone on this forum has been to Panda land and knows the situation on the ground personally. So don't get cute.

LOL, "everyone on this forum has been to Pandaland". I'd love to see a poll on that! I am currently posting from the US... but I, at least, just flew here from Shenzhen last weekend. I definitely can access forums.BR without any difficulty... I don't know if I've ever tried www.BR.

But more importantly, back on subject... Since everyone here is already intimately familiar with China and know all there is to know, then there's little for me to add. In that sense, not much has changed here over the last 10 years.


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