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these Islamic Tanzeems are often led by charismatic personalities. The followers coalesce behind these charismatic personalities. Once they die, there is often a tug of war for leadership. Some do not agree with the new choice, so they would splinter away. As this process of leadership deaths increase, the splintering also continues. All this happens in a background of very scarce resources. So the key to instability is
Assassination of top leaders. One could use rival groups for the purpose.
External support for splinter groups, such that they can credibly challenge the main group for turf
Excellent HUMINT on politics, capacities and family affiliations
The idea is to never let one group under a single leadership dominate the scene!
ramana wrote:What impact will a Somalified Egypt mean for India?
Al Azhar University would lose much of its influence in the Islamic world. Every Islamic center outside India that loses its grip over the Muslims in the world in general is a welcome sign for Indian Muslims, as they would have to adjust to local leadership.
More importantly, it would have grave consequences for the Mediterranean region, and the pre-Islamic civilizational artifacts. West should probably finance Egypt in exchange for its cultural treasures, which can brought to Europe for better safe-keeping.
^^^ It is interesting to read about demographic changes in that brief..any links to wider stats? May shatter some conventional myths. Or perhaps confirm the anecdotal evidence that birth control and sane population policies are perfectly acceptable where ROPs are in majority but hotly protested and even actively encouraged to multiply where they are not..
DUBAI: An influx of ultra-wealthy business tycoons from India has helped cement Dubai's position as the city with the most billionaires in the Middle East, according to a latest index that ranks Mumbai fifth largest hub of billionaires. The emirate is now home to the highest concentration of billionaires in the region - there are 14 of them - and ranks 18th globally, fresh data from WealthInsight, which analysed more than 1,300 billionaires, showed. New York was ranked as the city with highest number of billionaires, followed by Moscow, London and Hong Kong. "In terms of competition with Dubai, it has more to do with the Indian business," Stephen Gross, a senior analyst in WealthInsight, was quoted as saying by The National newspaper.
As the US and the EU tighten the noose around Iran and squeeze its oil and financial sectors, New Delhi’s ability to import a significant portion of its energy requirements from Tehran has been severely constrained. While India could easily do without the intensification of the Western confrontation with Iran, Delhi is not in a position to influence either party to back off. The UPA government might be well aware of this reality. But it has done little to educate the Indian political classes, let alone the public, of the need to hunker down, adapt and protect India’s energy and political interests in the Middle East. After years of failure to stop Iran’s nuclear weapon programme, the US and EU are sleepwalking into yet another war in the Middle East that a crisis-ridden world economy can ill-afford. Nor is there any reason to believe Iran is interested in giving up its nuclear weapon programme and resolve the many outstanding issues with he International Atomic Energy Agency. Delhi’s political posturing, with an eye to domestic audiences, on the rights and wrongs of the issues involved, will not do much for India. On the face of it, India is not obliged to abide by the unilateral Western sanctions against Iran, for these have not been endorsed by the UN Security Council. But the sanctions have been designed in such a way that Indian entities that continue to import oil and pay for them will have to bear much cost in dealing with the West. The first task for India now is to make the best of the exceptions and deliberately designed loopholes in the US and EU measures against Iran. India’s second objective must be to quickly reduce its oil imports from Iran, which currently constitute nearly 15 per cent of its external supplies. A third task is to find alternative petroleum suppliers from around the world. Finally, India must unveil a visible and high-level political engagement with the Arab oil producers in the Persian Gulf, who will necessarily have a big part in replacing Iranian supplies. The Gulf Arab states, whose security is most threatened by Iran’s nuclear weapons, have repeatedly beseeched Delhi for political solidarity in recent months. India should no longer play hard to get
shyamd wrote:Now one must ask why India pays token lip service to Palestine but continue to contribute heavily to the Israeli defences - so much so that you have a congrez govt subsidising a missile program for the safety of Israeli civilians. Unfortunately this program is a bit of a failure but hey....
Iron Dome.
This is pure hogwash. India subsidising Iron Dome? Whoever told you that was either pulling your leg or high on Afghanistan's finest.
There were some unconfirmed reports about the IA being interested in buying Iron Dome and David's Sling, but that's about it. The system is already developed so no question about joint-development either.
Look into it if you can and you'll get your answer. If you can look into the number of officers there on various program's, the type of relationship we have with Israel.
by: James Hider
SAUDI Arabia and Qatar have agreed to fund the Syrian opposition, which is struggling to afford weapons in its fight against President Bashar al-Assad, a Syrian dissident has told The Times.
Opposition figures held a secret meeting with Saudi and Qatar officials after an Arab League meeting in Cairo last weekend. All the Gulf countries decided then to pull their observers from a monitoring mission that has been widely criticised for being toothless.
"The Saudis are offering their support in any way," said the dissident, who asked not to be named.
Until now the Free Syrian Army has been funded largely by individual donors, many of them in the Syrian diaspora, enabling small arms to be bought on the black market in Lebanon.
The source said that after the meeting the situation "should get better". The main problem was smuggling the weapons into Syria. The opposition is calling for the international community to impose a no-fly zone similar to that by NATO over Libya in March, and for Turkey and Jordan to set up buffer zones on Syria's northern and southern borders.
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The dissident said Turkish plans had also been drawn up for bombing raids on Syrian military airbases and weapons dumps if the situation escalated. He said that the regime was playing a waiting game, marking time until the Free Syrian Army had run out of ammunition.
Qatar played a key role in funnelling weapons and advisers to Libyan rebels during the revolution to overthrow Muammar Gaddafi last year.
Meanwhile, the US State Department said yesterday American and Russian diplomats had held "very constructive" talks in Moscow as part of an effort to resolve differences in the global response to unrest in Syria.
"I wouldn't say there was a major breakthrough," State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said.
She acknowledged disagreement over Russia's arms sales to the Syrian government. Britain, France and the US have condemned the sales, which they say have been fuelling Mr Assad's crackdown.
On Monday, Russian daily Kommersant said Syria planned to buy 36 Russian military training aircraft, days after reports a Russian ship was carrying 60 tonnes of arms and equipment to Syria.
Additional reporting: AFP
Confirms what I have been saying since September/October!
Asaad's fall will come quickly. Meanwhile everyone is in a state of RED ALERT in the GCC/Israel for over a month as I disclosed earlier. What you will soon see is one ofthe largest troop presence since 2003 in the region.
It does seem Israel and Unkil are waiting for Assad to go before going after Nutjob and Mullah combo. That would remove one flank from the theater and orphan various jihadi piglets in Syria/Lebanon that can create trouble...question is if it will be a nudge or a whack that would send Ass-sad to his 72..
Alawites are not going anywhere without a bloody fight....
Militiamen loyal to President Bashar al-Assad killed 14 members of a Sunni family in the city of Homs on Thursday in one of the grizzliest sectarian attacks in the ten-month uprising raging in the Alawite-dominated country, activists and residents said.
Eight children, aged eight months to nine years old were among 14 Bahader family members shot or hacked to death in a building in the mixed Karm al-Zeitoun neighborhood of Homs, 140-km (88 miles) north of Damascus, they said.
The militiamen, known as 'shabbiha', entered the district after loyalist forces fired heavy mortar rounds on the area, killing another 16 people, residents and activists in the city told Reuters by phone.
YouTube video footage taken by activists, which could not be independently verified, showed the bodies of five children with wounds to the head and neck in a house. The bodies of three women and one man were also shown.
There was no comment from the Syrian authorities, who severely restrict independent media access to the country.
"Alawites who had remained in Karm al-Zeitoun mysteriously left four days ago, and the rumor was that they did so on orders by the authorities. Today we know why," said a doctor in the district who did not want to be named.
"We also have seventy people wounded. Field hospitals themselves are coming under mortar fire," he said.
Hamza, an activist in Homs said that the attack was "pure revenge" for shabbiha members being killed by army defectors loosely grouped under the Free Syrian Army.
He said Sunni families were fleeing Karm al-Zeitoun to other parts of the city, and several Sunni neighborhoods, such as Bab Sbaa, also came under fire.
Tit-for-tat sectarian killings began in Homs four months ago, following armored military assaults on Sunni areas of the city by forces led by members of Assad's minority Alawite sect.
Mass killings have included Alawites in micro-buses on the way to their villages near Homs and Sunnis stopped at a roadblock while heading to work at a factory. Women from the two sects have been abducted and killed also, activists said.
The killings have raised the prospect of the pro-democracy protest movement against Assad turning into a civil war, as his opponents take up arms and fight back against loyalist forces cracking down on demonstrators.
The Alawite community, an offshoot of Shi'ite Islam, has dominated the political system and the security apparatus in Syria, a mostly Sunni country of 20 million people, for the last five decades.
Unlike most Syrian cities, Homs has a large proportion of Alawites who moved to the city to take up jobs in the public sector and the security apparatus as Assad's father, the late President Hafez al-Assad, shored up his power base by promoting members of his own community.
But thousands of Alawites, residents say, have left Homs for their home villages in the Alawite Mountains northwest of Homs following a spike in sectarian killings and kidnappings in the city of one million. Thousands of Sunni families have also left for other parts of Syria, and for Lebanon and Jordan.
The Revolution Council of Homs Province said in a statement that the attack on Karm al-Zeitoun "is a new tactic based on annihilating civilians to break the will the people."
Khamanei just issued a statement in support of Assad ending the debate in IRan. Iran has re-doubled its efforts, they are bringing in the Shia militia that were so deadly in IRaq to operate in Syria. All the Iranian allies have been bought in.
^^^ that would be an ultimate irony, Alawaites going to Israel - a community protected and armed by Iran, which is sworn to destroy Israel, unable to do much for them seeing them going to the enemy...but if that happens, it will be quite interesting..
The so-called war on Iran and the bit about Israel raring to finish off the current Iranian regime is a bit of a smokescreen. War might be in the offing, and Israel a key part of the plan possibly too - but the hype about Iran is to divert attention. For Israel, its greater danger lies to its west and south - not to the north and east. This is where it will actually likely strike.
The more and more it looks like unkil and aunty along with their western allies
have a long term plan to change the entire middle-east into something like the
east-asia (a collection of democratic, rich, educated, businessminded, yet western
client states like Thailand, Taiwan, Singapore, Japan, Korea, etc. This was
necessaciated by the event of 9-11.
To do this, the process started with Iraq. Then the Arab spring - getting rid-off
friendly dictators in a peaceful way so that ground is not ceded to fundamentalists.
Though islamic brotherhood is in forefront now...this is just a passing phase, and
eventually democratic secularists will be helped to gain the upperhand.......Libyan intervention was needed to make sure that cheap oil flows uninterrupted........this
oil is needed to take the next step - that is, to counter the iranian oil disruption......
so now Syria and iran on the chopping block.......
though the sheikhs in saudi Arabia and Kuwait are now sitting tight and sipping
whisky cozily with unkil and aunty, do that know that they are the last pieces of
this regime-change domino effect?............Once Syria and Iran are done for, then the'begining of the end' will start with Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and other GCC members.
After watching Tom Donilon of Charlie Rose show this appears to be the game-plan.
They are monitoring the social change in the youth bulge in the middle east for the last 30 years. The oil money flow started in 1965 and an entire generation of youth grew up on this ol money.
They are hoping this group will want 'freedom' and 'liberty' and the small success was the arab spring.
Why aren't Iran and Syria donating a few million $$ to Occupy Wall Street movement?
After all, it's a democratic exercise by the commoners, for the commoners, of the commoners. This will keep unkil and aunty busy for a while.
....Just some thoughts.....
^^^^^
Such things are not done so openly with some iranian ayatollah handing over a
cheque to occupy Wall Street hippies in front of flashing cameras.........
There are enough wealthy sympathizers to write fat cheques.......the whole
idea is to keep the pot boiling........
....
by the way,...heard a rumor that the "downed drone" on the iranian soil actually may
have listening bugs in it....
Kati wrote:^^^^^
....
by the way,...heard a rumor that the "downed drone" on the iranian soil actually may
have listening bugs in it....
all those bugs will not be of much use, they need power to operate. To move it to a half decent location will itself take around 1 week, meaning the battery is drained. and once anyone starts putting a screw driver any half decent technician will remove the batteries. And if they move it to a "radio room" to seriously test, All the quackery in the world will not help it - seems like the Unkil is also starting to use djinn technology
All the "sooper-dooper" bugs which they added will be a study material to the Iranians nothing more
UNSC just met on Syria. China abstained and left it up to the Arab league. India slammed everyone including uk/us/ Arab league. Then votes in favour of the resolution. So everyone is confused at India.
shyamd wrote: India slammed everyone including uk/us/ Arab league. Then votes in favour of the resolution. So everyone is confused at India.
It basically says we have no bone to pick on this issue and will go with "the flow". It is so as to make sure that nobody gains a "moral standing" on the issue.
shyamd wrote:UNSC just met on Syria. China abstained and left it up to the Arab league. India slammed everyone including uk/us/ Arab league. Then votes in favour of the resolution. So everyone is confused at India.
Yeah! Well Syria is not really Iran! So our stakes are much lower there! We would probably follow the West and GCC on this, as it means a lot for them. All this support on Syria may give India more leeway on Iran. But then that is all speculation!
Acharya wrote:They are monitoring the social change in the youth bulge in the middle east for the last 30 years. The oil money flow started in 1965 and an entire generation of youth grew up on this ol money.
They are hoping this group will want 'freedom' and 'liberty' and the small success was the arab spring.
One must balance this 'youth bulge' problem with other aspects. First, there is a huge male female gap in this youth bulge, males being significantly higher. Which means future competition for jobs and marriage would be painful. This may also lead to a renewed interest Islamism in the young men. That would neutralize any impact of 'Islam-fatigue'. Also, young men are dying at a very high rate in Arab countries (mainly vehicle related accidents). This has created a huge social disturbance, so much so that UAE has a permanent department under a ministry to study this problem and make recommendations (not sure about other countries). What impact this will have is anybody's guess.
shyamd wrote:UNSC just met on Syria. China abstained and left it up to the Arab league. India slammed everyone including uk/us/ Arab league. Then votes in favour of the resolution. So everyone is confused at India.
shyamd wrote:UNSC just met on Syria. China abstained and left it up to the Arab league. India slammed everyone including uk/us/ Arab league. Then votes in favour of the resolution. So everyone is confused at India.
Not yet, but they have agreed on positions apparently. Still work in progress.
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FYI, the GCC AF's - particularly Kuwait, KSA, Oman and Qatar are watching the MRCA closely per a Kuwaiti AF pilot. Now there is a renewed attempt by France to sell to Qatar and Oman just this week.
China will support Russia’s draft resolution on Syria, Permanent Representative of China to the United Nations Li Baodong said at a session of the U.N. Security Council on Syria on Tuesday.
According to Li Baodong, China intends to take an active and constructive part in consultations and make efforts together with other parties towards the settlement of the situation in Syria through a political dialogue.
The Xinhua news agency on Wednesday quoted him as saying China is categorically against the use of force to change the regime in Syria as this violates “the purposes and principles of the U.N. Charter and the basic norms governing the international relations”.
The Chinese ambassador also backed Russia’s offer to the Syrian authorities and all opposition groups to send their representatives to Moscow for consultations without any preconditions.
At least 74 people have been killed in clashes between rival fans following a football match in the Egyptian city of Port Said.
Scores were injured as fans - reportedly armed with knives - invaded the pitch after a match between top-tier clubs al-Masry and al-Ahly.
Officials fear the death toll could rise further.
[...]
Some of the dead were security officers...
[...]
Egyptian fans are notoriously violent, says our correspondent, particularly supporters of al-Ahly known as the Ultras.
They have been heavily implicated in confronting the police during recent political protests, our correspondent adds. There is speculation that the security forces may have had an interest in taking on al-Ahly supporters.
[...]
"This is not football. This is a war and people are dying in front of us," al-Ahly player Mohamed Abo Treika said.
Hani Seddik, who played for al-Ahly as a teenager, told the BBC: "I don't think this is about football. These trouble-makers were not football fans."
