Spoke to a former minister in the Gayoom govt.
Was it a coup? Yes it was.
He totally rejects the fact that the Def min and Home minister (mohammed jameel ahmed) are islamists. The source has known both of people very well and especially the Home minister. They both worked on the New Maldives movement
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Maldives
He says most of the islamist stuff the HM used to attack the Nasheed govt is just rhetoric and it was perceived that the Nasheed govt was weak in this area. But 90% of the criticism of the opposition was on policy. The use of religion as a tool to attack the government is popular and there has been a long track record of it. MDP and the others attacked Gayoom saying that he wasn't a muslim. This is just part and parcel of maldivian politics, one needs to know it to understand and see below the surface of rhetoric.
In fact, Dr Hassan Saeed was accused of herecy for a book he wrote with his brother. This damaged his campaign. So this is not a new phenomenon to Maldivian politics. The current home minister, Dr Saeed and Dr Shaheed were accused of colluding with jews during the last presidential campaign.
Asked if allegations of corruption that Nasheed was digging up on Gayoom were true. His response was that yes it is true, that there is an allegation about Gayoom's brother Yameen was involved in illegal oil trade. But there is talk on the grapevines of evidence of embezzlement of millions, but nothing has come to light on this.
On the coup:
The coup took place as a result of several serious blunders by the Nasheed (who is also my friend). Its his activit mentaly that prevented him from thinking strategically to deal with his opponents. People were really angry with the way he confronted the whole judiciary andthreatened the SC ad HC judges. Nasheed never thought it would come to this. This has no link with Pakistan or China. Pakistan now is trying to get involved now that Indiahas recognised this government by trying to appeal to Nasheed. But I doubt that will work.
However, after the coup, (it was the MNDF who forced Nasheed toquit) , there is a huge support for Nasheed as people didn't lke the wa all this happened.
He thinks Nasheed will make a strong comeback in the next elections. He will be on attack and the others will be defencive.
On relations with India:
Our current defence deals with India are very important and must be maintained. It is in Maldivian interest to provide India with strategic depth in the Indian Ocean.
The source has already spoken to the Home minister - he is keen to maintain all previous agreements and the GMR agreement (on the airport). Although there will be some areas of the deal that will be discussed with GMR.
All the key players are keen to strengthen ties with India even more. Defence minister Nazim is new to politics and depends on the advice of the Home minister Jameel.
The current President Waheed depends on the ministers for his support and most policy will now be decided by the ministers rather than just one man as was in the case of Nasheed.
China relations -
The only chinese presence is the embassy, which is a very active one. They have tried for years to have a presence in Maldives for years, but have been rebuffed by every government.
They have currently submitted a proposal to develop an atoll in the South as a second city which Nasheed's govt was reviewing prior to his ouster. THis is the only real attempt they are making. It will be similar to Hambantota in SL.
We are concernd with Pak religious groups to try and gain a foothold here. Pak doesn't like the fact that Maldives is so pro India and is trying to use religion. We are eqully concerned about Pakistan's involvement in funding fundamentalists. We have also suffered from terror attacks. However, the politicians are afraid to take them on openly, even moderate scholars are afraid to challenge them.
Nasheed is playing his cards well. He enjoys huge support with the youth and will probably sweep back into power in a landside.
On the Blakes visit:
US is not trying to force early elections. Commonweath are here to see if it was a coup -Which it was! Commonwealth and EU will likely pressure us for early elections after their fact finding mission.
The source is someone who served in the Gayoom Cabinet during the period where he undertook the reform agenda. This person worked on reforms and was part of the team drafting the constitution. He then did not support Gayoom's re-election due to feeling there was a need for change in the country. He began supporting and working for election of the ousted President Nasheed.
He described Nasheed as a dreamer and supported his government. However, he dropped his support after he took actions and abused the constitution and rule of law.
I am told that Adalaath (the islamist party) asked for Education ministry - this was rejected, They also asked for culture... yet to be decided.
The first lady was in the swearing in ceremnony - a first in maldives. Dhunya Maumoon was declined the ffer for Foreign minister. The others are Aldi & Asim.
GMR and Nexbis deal will go through. No radical change will be made.
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I guess lets see what happens.
TFWIW
