Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 15 Jan 2012

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 15 Jan 201

Post by Anujan »

ramana wrote:Pak obliterating the OBL safehouse is like washing the crime scene after the hit to remove all traces of their culpability.
They did this earlier after BB hit the sun roof lever.
It probably had blast doors, tunnels, iron reinforced rooms, trapdoor entries ityadi. The more those things are around, more people might wonder why and how someone built something like this.

I am also suspicious about the timing. It comes soon after Miss Birkin's pappi Jhappi with her Mother in law and Pasha's meeting with Petraeus. And the demolition had nary a whimper from Unkil. It is probably an aspect of a package of "understandings"
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 15 Jan 201

Post by Satya_anveshi »

OBL was a single biggest inspiration for jihadis of all kinds and particularly the soosai variety

one way to inspire a soosai bummer in training is to take him to that place as a mini makka. In future, if the US and Puki army resume their sexual orgys, the said in-training soosai bummer will take it on kakul.

Abbottabad will become center for khakiwalas and dadiwalas. This demolition will remove that memory and limit the place only to khakiwalas.

for some establishment jihadis it will help make a case that puki army is ready to make amends and are serious about reversals. So, this act can also be used to encourage the establishment jihadis and fring jihadis to unify.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 15 Jan 201

Post by jamwal »

Strangely, frequency of terrorists attacks in other parts of India picked up pace as it waned in J&K.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 15 Jan 201

Post by Prem »

Four soldiers, 10 militants killed in S. Waziristan
SEPLATOI: Four soldiers and 10 militants were killed in a skirmish between Pakistani forces and a group of militants in the Seplatoi area of the South Waziristan tribal region late on Monday, security officials said on Tuesday.The Pakistani Taliban has strongholds in South Waziristan, near the Afghanistan border, where several Pakistani military offensives have failed to eliminate the group
http://www.dawn.com/2012/02/28/four-sol ... istan.html
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 15 Jan 201

Post by Roperia »

18 dead and 8 wounded in Pakistan bus ambush
The bus was carrying passengers from Rawalpindi, the city where the Pakistani army is headquartered, to the northern city of Gilgit. The motive was unclear as Islamist militants are not active in the area, police said.

The ambush happened near the town of Harban, 130 miles (208 kilometres) north of the capital Islamabad.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 15 Jan 201

Post by Anujan »

Motive was unclear huh? My guess is that they committed the crime of being Shia.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 15 Jan 201

Post by Roperia »

Guys, check out the original email exchange among Stratfor employees.

The hacker group Anonymous hacked Stratfor's emails and gave it to wikileaks, which is publishing them.

Fred Burton (Stratfor's vice president for intelligence) claims that his "source", who could get him access to the materials seized from the OBL safe house, said Osama had frequent contact with senior Pak intelligence & military figures.

I couldn't help but notice - he refers to Pakistani ISI and Mil as Paki ISI and Mil :rotfl: The Global Intelligence Files - Re: OBL take -- quick response needed
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 15 Jan 201

Post by arun »

Arun Roperia wrote:18 dead and 8 wounded in Pakistan bus ambush
The bus was carrying passengers from Rawalpindi, the city where the Pakistani army is headquartered, to the northern city of Gilgit. The motive was unclear as Islamist militants are not active in the area, police said.

The ambush happened near the town of Harban, 130 miles (208 kilometres) north of the capital Islamabad.
Anujan wrote:Motive was unclear huh? My guess is that they committed the crime of being Shia.
Chalk the motive down to usual Green on Green inter-sectarian Mohammadden violence in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan with the “More Pure” culling the “Less Pure”.

As you have currently surmised, the BBC citing Reuters is reporting that all the victims of this attack in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan were Mohammaddens of the Shia sect. The BBC citing Reuters is also reporting that the location at which the attack took place is dominated by Mohammaddens of the Sunni sect. :
A police spokesman told Reuters news agency that all the victims were from the minority Shia community and that the bus was passing through an area dominated by Sunni tribes.

BBC
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 15 Jan 201

Post by arun »

In the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, Pepsi banned from being served on the campus of the University of Punjab because it is Jewish.

Likewise Shezan banned as it being manufactured by members of the minority Ahmadi / Ahmadiyya sect of Mohammaddenism.

I guess this is what it means to live in an Ideological Muslim State :

Banned drinks: No Shezan, Pepsi at Punjab University
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 15 Jan 201

Post by Anujan »

Apparently medical college exams are too hard for Pakis.

http://tribune.com.pk/story/342925/punj ... t-marking/
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 15 Jan 201

Post by member_21708 »

Another Hindu trader kidnapped in Pakistan's Balochistan province
http://www.dnaindia.com/world/report_an ... ce_1655923
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 15 Jan 201

Post by Anujan »

Apparently the passengers were lined up. their id cards checked and shot.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 15 Jan 201

Post by shiv »

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 062587.cms
Interestingly, whereas seemingly large numbers of Stratfor's subscribers and clients work in the US military and intelligence agencies, Stratfor gave complimentary membership to General Hamid Gul, the controversial former head of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), who, according to US diplomatic cables, planned an IED attack on international forces in Afghanistan in 2006.
Unrelated but the following passage is how being "fair" and not creating misperceptions is far from any schemers mind when a job needs doing
The emails date from July 2004 till December 2011. They show Stratfor's web of informers, pay-off structure, payment-laundering techniques and psychological methods.

For instance, Stratfor's chief executive George Friedman on December 6, 2011, advised an analyst called Reva Bhalla: :( "You have to take control of him. Control means financial, sexual or psychological control." This was in reference to how to exploit an Israeli intelligence informant providing information on the medical condition of Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 15 Jan 201

Post by arun »

Anujan wrote:Apparently the passengers were lined up. their id cards checked and shot.
AFP is reporting what you have said:
"It appears to be a sectarian attack," local MP Abdul Sattar Khan said.

"Its a remote area. We are getting reports that the gunmen forced people to get off the bus. They checked their papers and shot them dead," he told AFP.

AFP via Google
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 15 Jan 201

Post by member_20617 »

Theo_Fidel wrote:
venug wrote: And once again, do you or DoCJi deny that the amount of firepower US brings to table dwarfs what us SDREs have in Kashmir?

In the Indian encounters shots are always fired in short 3 bullet bursts with a officer present right at the front. One reason India takes such high officer casualties. For America such casualties would mean a change of tactic and bringing in the daisy cutters first. Not India. Americans can never understand this. In my conversations with them they always think India is taking foolish risks with the lives of its soldiers. They don’t understand the cultural sub-text of standing your ground and fighting on your own soil and putting the fear of god into your opponent.

At the same time I do think the presence of Amerika in Af-Pak has definitely reduced pressure on Indian troops in Kashmir, so if that’s true, lets be grateful to the khan for that at least.
Is there any way we can reduce deaths and serious injuries on our side?

I may be wrong but my general impression is that every time we kill 3-4 terrorists we lose one soldier. I think we must change our tactics to greatly reduce the loss on our side and make it very costly for terrorists. I don't know how this can be done as I am not a military expert.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 15 Jan 201

Post by Roperia »

shiv wrote:Stratfor gave complimentary membership to General Hamid Gul
Stratfor, keeping in touch with the foes, are we?
shiv wrote:George Friedman on December 6, 2011, advised an analyst called Reva Bhalla:"You have to take control of him. Control means financial, sexual or psychological control."


OT but I had to write, Reva Bhalla is gorgeous. :oops:
Last edited by Roperia on 28 Feb 2012 15:21, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 15 Jan 201

Post by nachiket »

Shankaraa, terrorists in J&K usually hide in areas with a civilian population.The only way for us to minimize casualties would be to do what the americans or the pakis do. Level the area with artillery or air-strikes and then move in to count the bodies. This will no doubt cause considerable civilian casualties and turn the civilian population against you. The americans don't care because they are not in their own country and most of the talibunnies hide in caves and mountains rather than villages. The pakis don't care because they are animals and have no qualms about killing innocents. We can't do that.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 15 Jan 201

Post by member_20617 »

nachiket wrote:Shankaraa, terrorists in J&K usually hide in areas with a civilian population.The only way for us to minimize casualties would be to do what the americans or the pakis do. Level the area with artillery or air-strikes and then move in to count the bodies. This will no doubt cause considerable civilian casualties and turn the civilian population against you. The americans don't care because they are not in their own country and most of the talibunnies hide in caves and mountains rather than villages. The pakis don't care because they are animals don't give two hoots about killing innocents. We can't do that.
Nachiket

I agree with you. We don't want the civilian population turning against us but surely there must be some way.

Pakis are playing smart games here. They want to incite locals against our military whenever there is any civilian death during our military operation.

When we threaten them with full war - they blackmail us with their nuclear weapons.

We have to break this deadlock somehow.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 15 Jan 201

Post by shiv »

OT post deleted
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 15 Jan 201

Post by Rohit_K »

celebratory? firing by barbaric pakis - nothing new here

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7iJHFoH6jI
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 15 Jan 201

Post by CRamS »

nachiket wrote:Shankaraa, terrorists in J&K usually hide in areas with a civilian population.The only way for us to minimize casualties would be to do what the americans or the pakis do. Level the area with artillery or air-strikes and then move in to count the bodies. This will no doubt cause considerable civilian casualties and turn the civilian population against you. The americans don't care because they are not in their own country and most of the talibunnies hide in caves and mountains rather than villages. The pakis don't care because they are animals and have no qualms about killing innocents. We can't do that.
This is what mystifies me. Is religious affinity so magnetic? I mean, it does't take anyone with more than room temperature IQ to realize that TSP cares two bloody hoots for the civilian population in Kashmir. They are just cannon fodder in TSP's war against India. As someone said, TSP RAPE will fight for Kashmir till the last KM's blood. And yet the local KMs dance to TSP's tunes. This is what hurts India more than anything else TSP has unleashed. And this is wat lets TSP RAPE speciously draw parallels between India's support for Bangladesh's war of independence and their support for so called "right of self determination for the people of Kashmir". And we know what a bold-faced infuriating lie this is. The day when we see even a small percentage drop in KM support for TSP, India will have pretty much wrapped up the valley, TSP will have no chance. Why this wholesale support for TSP in the valley? Now, I know there are polls that indicate valley KMs prefer independence bla bla, but at the end of the day, it is TSP's support, and US's wink wink nod nod that keeps their hopes alive and the conflict raging. Is religious affinity so strong that they overlook TSP's perfidy cruelty? How does India turn this damn thing around?
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 15 Jan 201

Post by anupmisra »

Anujan wrote:Apparently the passengers were lined up. their id cards checked and shot.
Do paki ID's have the carrier's religion and sub-religion on them (Muslim-Shia or Muslim-Sunni)? If so, that's a bad idea.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 15 Jan 201

Post by shiv »

Shankaraa wrote: Pakis are playing smart games here. They want to incite locals against our military whenever there is any civilian death during our military operation.

When we threaten them with full war - they blackmail us with their nuclear weapons.

We have to break this deadlock somehow.
Shankaraa, in 2006 I reviewed a book for BR's "Strategic Research Review" an online BR journal that died later.

The book is all about the US's role in Asia and the link to the review is below. But I will just post a relevant quote
Military Modernization in an Era of Uncertainty, Edited byAshley Tellis and Michael Wills
The continuing prospect of the US
in being the pre-eminent economic and military power is described and defined. The role of
the US in Asia is described as one of holding the ring akin to a stabilizing force that
prevents the ring from being pulled in one direction or other.
The definition is "To oversee a situation while trying not to get involved"

Be it Noko-South Korea, China-Taiwan, Japan-China, India-Pakistan the US plays the role of a ring of powerful boxers who will let the fight continue and try and "oversee" the fight. This is open, published American policy. I have the original book with the quoted words and the policy in great detail. Funnily enough this is exactly what the US is doing with the Israelis and the Arabs. This is the "world order"

US assistance to Pakistan has been to "oversee" the dispute while not getting involved directly. The two fighters balance each other with specific inputs from the USA. For example the US could, in a war - upset Indian invasion plans by using its excellent satellite Intel capability to inform Pakistan of Indian troop movement - an act that could turn a planned action into a rout for India. This is in addition to military equipment supplied to Pakistan with the specific intent of balancing out India, such as the supremely effective AMRAAM BVR missiles etc.

This has gone on for many decades and the Pakistani army has built its war doctrine around expecting to lose but expecting that a war will be stopped long before that by foreign powers. In other words the Pakistani "cleverness" that you have described has been built upon a framework of support by the USA and to some extent China.

For India this means that the cost of waging war is increased enormously and rules out Indian action to "reclaim PoK" and other things that are so fondly desired by people on here. Of course India is doing the right thing by trying to achieve overwhelming strength that essentially makes India break free of the games that have been played with us for decades. But I would like to see the playing of some games of our own where the assistance that adds to Pakistan's power is reduced.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 15 Jan 201

Post by Altair »

This is turning out to be the best time for India by tearing apart Pakistan by doing nothing at all.

We are not supporting the Baloch/Sindh in Pakistan as GoI does not want to be responsible for the inevitable which will happen with/without our intervention. We are however doing what needs to be done silently.

The internal forces are really galvanizing various sections of Pakistan against the military. We may argue that they do not have the military muscle or population to sustain but we should not forget that numbers can be misleading. An abused child can bring the whole house down with just a match stick and some gasoline. It doesnt need a bulldozer and dozen demolition men.

The atmosphere in Karachi and Dera Bugti will reach a climax very soon. The tempo is raising slowly but surely leading to the ultimate showdown. India must make sure that the fallout, which will be forced on India by IM/SIMI types with ISI backing are monitored. This is also an opportunity to cut the hydra into pieces.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 15 Jan 201

Post by member_20617 »

shiv wrote:
Shankaraa wrote: Pakis are playing smart games here. They want to incite locals against our military whenever there is any civilian death during our military operation.

When we threaten them with full war - they blackmail us with their nuclear weapons.

We have to break this deadlock somehow.
Shankaraa, in 2006 I reviewed a book for BR's "Strategic Research Review" an online BR journal that died later.

The book is all about the US's role in Asia and the link to the review is below. But I will just post a relevant quote
Military Modernization in an Era of Uncertainty, Edited byAshley Tellis and Michael Wills
The continuing prospect of the US
in being the pre-eminent economic and military power is described and defined. The role of
the US in Asia is described as one of holding the ring akin to a stabilizing force that
prevents the ring from being pulled in one direction or other.
The definition is "To oversee a situation while trying not to get involved"

Be it Noko-South Korea, China-Taiwan, Japan-China, India-Pakistan the US plays the role of a ring of powerful boxers who will let the fight continue and try and "oversee" the fight. This is open, published American policy. I have the original book with the quoted words and the policy in great detail. Funnily enough this is exactly what the US is doing with the Israelis and the Arabs. This is the "world order"

US assistance to Pakistan has been to "oversee" the dispute while not getting involved directly. The two fighters balance each other with specific inputs from the USA. For example the US could, in a war - upset Indian invasion plans by using its excellent satellite Intel capability to inform Pakistan of Indian troop movement - an act that could turn a planned action into a rout for India. This is in addition to military equipment supplied to Pakistan with the specific intent of balancing out India, such as the supremely effective AMRAAM BVR missiles etc.

This has gone on for many decades and the Pakistani army has built its war doctrine around expecting to lose but expecting that a war will be stopped long before that by foreign powers. In other words the Pakistani "cleverness" that you have described has been built upon a framework of support by the USA and to some extent China.

For India this means that the cost of waging war is increased enormously and rules out Indian action to "reclaim PoK" and other things that are so fondly desired by people on here. Of course India is doing the right thing by trying to achieve overwhelming strength that essentially makes India break free of the games that have been played with us for decades. But I would like to see the playing of some games of our own where the assistance that adds to Pakistan's power is reduced.
Shivji

I agree with you. USA and its poodle (or guru) UK have been playing this ‘Divide & Rule’ game for donkey years.

As far as Kashmir is concerned, there are actually 4 parties against us – Pakistan, USA, China and some local Kashmiris. (Note: not all Kashmiris are traitors)

Apart from AmirKhan & Chinese, Pakis have also got support from some local Kashmiris without whom they cannot operate in Kashmir. After all, these mujahideens (some may be Paki soldiers) would require shelter, food and other logistical help to carry out their terrorist activities.

As far as satellite intel is concerned, could we not
(1)Jam them electronically without revealing ourselves
(2)Input wrong information on them to misdirect Pakis/Khans (a sort of hacking)

May be we do not have such advanced technology available now but we have a very capable pool of technologists in India who can deliver this in 2-4 years’ time if the gobermand supports them.

Also we must try to inflame the current situation in Pakistan. Keep them occupied in internal turmoil. The more they fight with one another less are the chances of them using these sophisticated arms against us or hurting our soldiers in Kashmir after infiltration. This the best way to nullify all their current advantages.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 15 Jan 201

Post by Mihaylo »

Satya_anveshi wrote:OBL was a single biggest inspiration for jihadis of all kinds and particularly the soosai variety

one way to inspire a soosai bummer in training is to take him to that place as a mini makka. In future, if the US and Puki army resume their sexual orgys, the said in-training soosai bummer will take it on kakul.

Abbottabad will become center for khakiwalas and dadiwalas. This demolition will remove that memory and limit the place only to khakiwalas.

for some establishment jihadis it will help make a case that puki army is ready to make amends and are serious about reversals. So, this act can also be used to encourage the establishment jihadis and fring jihadis to unify.

I have to disagree. OBLs crib was demolished because it is a symbol of how the kafirs outsmarted the so called great Islamic military. Every day it stands, it reminds them of this defeat, and hence, it needed to be destroyed.

Also, today, there is no difference between the 'khakis' and the 'dadis'. They are increasingly fighting each others fights. So lets not mouth the same garbage the 'toilet media' in general does when it comes to analyzing such situations in Pak. We are BRF and we are better than that.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 15 Jan 201

Post by shiv »

Conglaturations to our Chinese fliends
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/ar ... 8c7fe3.671
PESHAWAR, Pakistan — A Chinese woman was shot dead with a male companion on Tuesday in the Pakistani city Peshawar, which borders the tribal belt stronghold of Taliban and Al-Qaeda-linked militants, police said.

They were killed by gunmen on motorbikes while walking in the Kohati bazaar in the historic centre of the northwestern city, police said. The motive of the shooting and why the Chinese woman was in Peshawar was not immediately clear.

"Those who were killed are one man carrying a Pakistani ID card and one woman carrying a Chinese passport," police official Tahir Ayub told AFP.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 15 Jan 201

Post by member_21708 »

shiv wrote:http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/ar ... 8c7fe3.671
PESHAWAR, Pakistan — A Chinese woman was shot dead with a male companion on Tuesday in the Pakistani city Peshawar, which borders the tribal belt stronghold of Taliban and Al-Qaeda-linked militants, police said.
Shamsul Arifeen, the father of the Pakistani man, said his son was on vacation from studying English literature at the prestigious Government College University in Lahore, and he had told him he was working as a translator.

"My son told me that he knew a Chinese and wanted to work for her as a translator while she was in Peshawar. I told him not to get involved in this thing as the environment was hostile, but he insisted," Arifeen told AFP.
The woman came from the eastern city of Lahore and checked in at Peshawar's cheap Motel Inn at 10.00 am (0500 GMT) on Sunday, he added.
Reporter? Spy?
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 15 Jan 201

Post by shiv »

vikramd wrote: Reporter? Spy?
Naah. Kafir woman. Uncovered meat. Pork eater. Unmarried couple. Haraaaaaaaaaaaam! Wajibul Qatl.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 15 Jan 201

Post by nvishal »

@Satya
Divide and rule is part of the "tactic" which forms a small part of the overall "strategy". India used to be a colony. Post 47, india broke into several pieces which meant a lesser power. Over the next few decades, india made the mistake of showing the west how and what india "thinks". It converted words to actions. It allied with the soviets. The NAM was cultivated to be anti-colony, anti-UN and anti-west. Remember, colonies still exist today(US, Aus, SA, tibet etc). The UN brought together world nations, most of them poor who in return for aid and local conflict resolutions agreed to recognize the sovereignty of those colony states. This "recognition" from majority states meant "legitimacy". This structure is the apparatus they have and continue to maintain. Pakistan fits in this apparatus simply because they don't challenge it. In fact, they have no problem being US's subordinate. China, because they are in the UNSC. It is in the UNSC because it is part of the N5.

The second reason is that the PA is the baton holder of those tanzims in this region. It might be untrue at heart and it might not have full control over those tanzims but the fact that no attacks on US homeland has taken place since 9/11 says that it has the minimum effective control over those tanzims. Under PA, those tanzims incur a cost on india and on US efforts in afghanistan. Without PA control, they will incur a cost on china, the US, the whole world.

All calculations say that india is at odds. It is not a "question" whether china and US would come for pakistans rescue. It is an absolute possibility.

To break this strategic game, india needs to find a way to bring out the tanzims from the grip of the PA. If PA cannot excercise control over the tanzims, it becomes a useless governor and will no longer receive security guarantees from china or US.

My theory is that this game can only break once the tanzims receive ready made warheads(even fizzle quality will do). The sunnis are in wests pocket. At this point, I will bet on the shias. The west will eventually do something really stupid in iran.

India stands to incur a cost whether the game breaks or not. Might as well hope that the cost spreads to those nations who play it.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 15 Jan 201

Post by Mahendra »

shiv wrote:
vikramd wrote: Reporter? Spy?
Naah. Kafir woman. Uncovered meat. Pork eater. Unmarried couple. Haraaaaaaaaaaaam! Wajibul Qatl.

I've heard that the BLA and the bad Taliban have declared all Chinese who are in Pakistan to steal resources to be Wen-Xia bul Qatl. How dare these short, yellow, slit eyed pork eaters dream of enslaving the proud Pakistani people who ruled the world for 1300 years!
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 15 Jan 201

Post by Mihaylo »

Reporter? Spy?[/quote]

Naah, her pindaliyon ka gooda was showing and this can only be shown in Jannat
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 15 Jan 201

Post by mayo »

PIA ranked number one in flight safety

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/ ... LR20120215
ISLAMABAD, Feb 15 (Reuters) - On a recent Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) flight, water flowed from the toilets through the aisles during the entire journey from London to Islamabad.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 15 Jan 201

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From The News (posting in full)
Prime Minister Gilani meets Army Chief, President Zardari
Updated 2 hours ago
ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani held a detailed meeting with President Asif Ali Zardari after he met with Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani on Tuesday, Geo News reported.

An official statement said the meeting between the PM and COAS discussed professional matters relating to the country's defence besides internal and external situation as well as that of the entire region.

The meeting held at a time when the ISI Chief Lt. Gen. Ahmed Shuja Pasha is on his way to be retired next month.

Some circles are of the view that the DG ISI would be given another extension in his term.

The present political scenario should also be kept in view where political forces of the country seemed to have intensified their stand against unrest in Balochistan and an alleged military operation in the province.

It is also not out of context that only three days ago the PM, after holding a meeting with DG ISI, had issued a call for joining the reconciliation process in Afghanistan with the Taliban groups including Hezb-e-Islami.

After meeting with the COAS, the Prime Minister called on President Asif Ali Zardri at the Presidency.

In a very short press release issued by the Presidential Spokesman it was stated that the President and Prime Minister had exchange of views on the recent by elections for National and provincial assemblies seats and the Senate polls scheduled to be held on March 2.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 15 Jan 201

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From The News (posting in full)
PM advises President to appoint new Air Chief
Updated 1 hour ago
ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani has advised President of Pakistan to appoint Air Marshal Tahir Raffiq Butt, being the senior most, as the new Chief of Air Staff of Pakistan Air Force. (APP)
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 15 Jan 201

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From The News (posting in full)
President Zardari signs 20th amendment bill
Updated 5 hours ago
ISLAMABAD: President Asif Ali Zardari has signed the 20th amendment bill which had already been adopted by the Senate and National Assembly earlier this month.

The 20th amendment will now become part of the Constitution.

The bill was passed by the Senate with an over two-thirds majority, with only two Jamaat-e-Islami senators voting against it. Earlier, the National Assembly had approved the bill unanimously.

After the passage of the bill by the upper and lower house, the Prime Minister said the amendment would strengthen democracy in the country.

The 20th Amendment envisages an autonomous Election Commission and neutral caretaker set-ups at the centre and in the provinces for holding fair and free elections. The Bill would amend six articles and Second and Third Schedule to the Constitution besides adding a new article to the document.

On the caretaker set-up, the amendment says if the prime minister and leader of the opposition in the outgoing National Assembly do not agree on any person to be appointed as the caretaker prime minister within three days of the dissolution of the AssemblyÇ they shall forward two nominees each to a Committee to be immediately constituted by the Speaker of the National Assembly.


The committee will comprise eight members of the outgoing National Assembly or the Senate having equal representation from the treasury and opposition. Members of the committee would be nominated by the prime minister and leader of the opposition.

The committee will finalise the name within three days of the referral of the matter to it. In case of inability of the committee to decide the matter in three daysÇ the names of nominees shall be referred to the Election Commission for final decision within two days. The same procedure would be followed in the provinces.

The incumbent prime minister and incumbent chief minister shall continue to hold office till appointment of the caretaker PM and CM. The provision also clarifies that if the members of the opposition are less than five in the National Assembly and less then four in any Provincial Assembly, then all of them shall be members of the said committee. The prime minister also congratulated the House on the adoption of Domestic Violence Bill.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 15 Jan 201

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From The News - Opinion piece by Dr Maleeha Lodhi against the 20th Amendment adopted by PPP govt. (posting in full)
Hazards of election economics
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
The writer is special adviser to the Jang Group/Geo and a former envoy to the US and the UK.
Last week the Senate adopted the 20th Amendment Bill after the government distributed Rs360 million of ‘development’ funds among sixty senators. This is a telling indicator of what lies ahead in election year. The use of public money to cement political support points to the likelihood of more ‘political spending’ in the run up to the polls. There is talk of a ‘people-friendly’ budget – euphemism for patronage-driven fiscal profligacy.

A spending binge can be dangerous when debilitating domestic and external imbalances are casting a shadow over the country’s economic stability. The budget deficit has already ballooned to its highest level since 2008. Along with a deteriorating external position, this can push the economy to breaking point.

Officials contest this scenario will materialise. They rule out spending overruns due to electoral considerations even though their record of expenditure restraint is far from reassuring. Distribution of public funds in the recent by elections is also at odds with government claims. But officials insist that the rest of the current fiscal year will see no slippage in budgeted outlays for current and development expenditure. No increases are envisaged in spending on subsidies. Nor, they claim, will the budget be an exercise in fiscal irresponsibility. Signs however point to the contrary.

Government officials acknowledge that the economic situation is dire but they claim it is manageable. They seem confident about papering over the economic cracks before the elections whether held this autumn or in 2013, and believe no crisis can emerge in this period.

They may well turn out to be right. But the question is at what cost? Policy inaction on urgent structural problems and flagging fiscal restraint in the face of electoral pressures can push fragile public finances into even greater disarray. Policy paralysis at the start of the election season is already heightening that risk. Postponing urgent budgetary decisions will entail serious consequences and present the next government with a bigger economic challenge – even a full-blown financial crisis.

The country doesn’t have to look far to divine the deleterious consequences of a protracted period of policy inaction and politically driven fiscal indiscipline. Just four years ago the country came close to external debt default when the foreign exchange reserves plummeted and the budget deficit reached a record high. Both domestic and external factors contributed to the 2008 crisis. They included a sharply deteriorating balance of payments position due to a spike in international oil and food prices. In a year of political transition and elections urgent decisions were postponed, politics took primacy over economics, and the fiscal deficit widened as spending on energy subsidies shot up and was financed by the central bank. Rather than pass through the higher international prices, the government chose to dither and delay. Record budget and balance of payments deficits and erosion of confidence produced a foreign exchange crisis, which was resolved only by an emergency loan from the IMF.

Can a fragile macroeconomic situation and economic decisions dictated by electoral considerations plunge the country into a crisis resembling that of 2008? What distinguishes the present situation from that in 2008 is the build up of foreign exchange reserves. This is also the prime reason for official complacency and explains why the government thinks it can avoid taking corrective policy measures.

But several factors including the composition of reserves suggest that this confidence may be misplaced. The bulk of the $12 billion reserves held by the State Bank is borrowed money. It includes $8 billion of an IMF loan, on which repayments have to be made over the next three years, starting with the first instalment of $1.2 billion this month. This will begin to deplete the ‘cushion’ at a time of weakening foreign inflows. Over the last six months the capital account of the balance of payments has been deteriorating as net inflows have tapered off. With foreign capital inflows drying up, this will in time confront the country with an inescapable dilemma: draw down reserves to meet external liabilities including to the IMF, which will put pressure on the external position and the value of the rupee.

Repayments have to be made to the IMF at a time when exports have significantly slowed down (reflecting falling export prices), net inflows have started to turn negative and external financing has sharply reduced. This will make it difficult to finance a larger current account deficit.

The government believes it will be able to secure alternate financing by the sale of 3-G licenses, collection of proceeds from PTCL’s privatisation to Etisalat, as well as early resumption of US assistance. But all of this rests on rather optimistic assumptions. They will take time to materialise. Some may not come through in the time frame assumed by the government.

What can also upset this fragile financial balancing is the already rising price of oil. The international price can rise more sharply if current tensions between Iran and the US lead to a protracted stand off and heighten the risk of regional conflict. If the oil import bill rises dramatically it will rapidly deplete reserves and intensify the danger of a balance of payments crisis. No buffer will be available to withstand this external shock.

The country’s economic managers also have to reckon with a more uncertain and less supportive international environment today than the one that was obtained in 2008. Western preoccupation with the global financial downturn, strains in global financial markets and the sharp fiscal constraints faced by many western countries mean there is reduced capacity and willingness to bail out other nations. The slide in Pakistan-US relations adds to the uncertainty about the revival of external inflows.

Moreover the magnitude of many of the country’s macroeconomic problems is greater now than when the 2008 crisis began to build up. National debt for example is double to what it was in 2008. Growth has stagnated, inflation has been surging, foreign investment has plunged, and in spite of higher remittances (now the only continuing source of foreign finance) the current account deficit is widening, multilateral inflows are declining and capital out flows are increasing just when larger debt repayments loom.

This creates a situation which will compel going back to the IMF to escape a potential external debt default. Yet the government has neither prepared itself nor the public for this eventuality. The next government will have a daunting challenge to confront and will be constrained to make sharper policy adjustments while having to square this with heightened public expectations.

The IMF’s concerns about Pakistan’s growing economic vulnerabilities are reflected in its latest report released this January after Article IV consultations in 2011. This recommends a set of immediate short-term measures to build buffers against any internal or external shocks.

Making the link between policy weakening and the coming elections it says, “the current mix of large fiscal deficits and accommodative monetary policy is increasingly unsustainable.” A political climate that is not conducive to reform and the present “overly expansionary” macroeconomic policies have made the economy “increasingly vulnerable”. The report urges actions to reduce these vulnerabilities by preparing a plan that mitigates risks. It calls for national consensus on structural reforms including energy sector reform.

“A fundamental break with the past” is needed to carry out policy corrections that can establish lasting macroeconomic stability. The question is who will make this change in policy direction? If the next election produces another coalition will it ever be strong enough to do this? Or can significant reform only be undertaken by a government with a decisive majority – an unlikely election outcome on current projections.

It is too early to make election predictions. What is certain, however, is that that government borrowing to finance the budget is exacerbating a runaway fiscal problem and creating price pressures that pose as great a threat to economic stability as the prospect of a balance of payments crisis.
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 15 Jan 201

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From The News - Opinion piece by Dr Ashfaque H Khan. (posting in full)
The exchange rate
Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Why Pakistan’s exchange rate (rupee-dollar parity) remained stable between October 2001 and March 2008 (78 months), and why it registered a sharp depreciation between April 2008 and February 2012 (47 months) will form the subject matter of this article. Some “generalists” have always argued that the government of that time had “artificially” stabilised the exchange rate between October 2001 and March 2008, and that the prolonged stability in the exchange rate was inconsistent with macroeconomic fundamentals.

Only recently (Jan 26), former finance minister Sartaj Aziz was quoted in an English daily, commenting on the recent sharp depreciation in th exchange rate. He argued that the “growing pressure on foreign exchange reserves, weak macroeconomic indicators coupled with relatively high inflation rate in Pakistan as compared to its trading partners are major factors for the depreciation of the rupee against the US dollar.”

Sartaj Aziz’s blunt summation says it all. The appreciation or depreciation of the exchange rate is dependent on foreign exchange reserves and the country’s macroeconomic fundamentals. How can any central bank “artificially” hold the exchange rate for such a long period of time in a managed floating exchange rate regime with no predetermined path for the exchange rate?

Foreign exchange inflows on a sustained basis constitute one of the key factors for providing stability to the exchange rate. Pakistan’s foreign exchange earnings (exports of goods and services, current transfers including remittances and investment income) stood at $12.8 billion in 1999-2000 but surged to $37 billion by March 2008-almost a threefold increase in eight years. Such large inflows helped Pakistan to build its foreign exchange reserves from $1.3 billion in 1999-2000 to $16.4 billion by October 2007-almost a thirteen-fold increase in seven years. Three years of surpluses in the current account (2001-02 to 2003-04) helped Pakistan build its foreign exchange reserves as well.

The accumulation of foreign exchange reserves was so excessive during the period that it created serious difficulties for the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) in conducting its monetary policy. The SBP had to struggle to strike a balance between preventing a sharp appreciation of the exchange rate and massive increase in reserve money fuelling inflation.


The SBP used the sterilisation instrument to neutralise the monetary impact of the massive inflow of capital. For example, the SBP injected Rs257 billion (against the net purchase of $4.4 billion) into the banking system in 2002-03, but 70 percent (Rs181 billion) of that injection was sterilised. Resultantly, the reserve money grew by 13.5 percent, instead of 44 percent, had SBP not sterilised the inflow. However, despite the sterilization exercise, Pakistan’s exchange rate appreciated by 7 percent during 2001-02 and 2003-04.

Pakistan’s current account balance entered in deficit zone in 2004-05 ($1.75 billion) but widened substantially in 2005-06 ($5.6 billion) and 2006-07 ($7.5 billion). However, the deficit was more than covered by record-high capital inflows, including foreign direct investment (see IMF Article IV Consultation Report, November 8, 2007). Thus, despite a relatively large current account deficit in 2005-06 and 2006-07, Pakistan’s exchange rate remained stable at around Rs60 per US dollar owing to the massive inflow of foreign capital, including foreign investment, which surged to $8.4 billion and helped in adding $3.5 billion in gross official reserves in 2006-07. Hence, even with a $7.5 billion current account deficit in 2006-07, Pakistan succeeded in adding to its foreign exchange reserves. Such inflow not only helped the rupee to fluctuate within a narrow band (Rs.60.27 to Rs.60.62 per dollar) against the US dollar but the real, effective exchange rate remained stable as well (see IMF Article IV Consultation Report, November 8, 2007, page 6).

Besides foreign capital inflows, Pakistan’s macroeconomic fundamentals remained strong during 2002-07 with economic growth averaging almost 7.0 percent per annum, investment rate reaching all time high at 22.5 percent of GDP, large-scale manufacturing growth averaging 12.9 percent, inflation averaging 6.0 percent, budget deficit as a percentage of GDP averaging 3.7 percent, public debt continuing to decline from 80 percent to 55 percent of GDP and debt-servicing as percent of total revenue witnessing a decline from 51 percent to 25.4 percent. Such a performance encouraged the IMF to write in its Article IV Consultation Report (November 8, 2007) that “Pakistan has experienced a remarkable turnaround in its economic performance since 2001/02.”

Thus, over the last four years, massive capital inflows and strong macroeconomic fundamentals were the principal reasons for the prolonged period of exchange rate stability in Pakistan during 2002-07. Weak macroeconomic indicators, relatively high inflation, surging debt burden, persistence of political instability, weak economic management, massive decline in foreign investment and other capital inflows building pressure on foreign exchange reserves are the principal reasons for the recent depreciation of rupee against the US dollar.

A country can witness appreciation or stability in its exchange rate if foreign capital inflows exceed its foreign exchange requirements hence enabling it to continue to build its foreign exchange reserves. Many countries in the Asia-Pacific region, including India, have experienced a prolonged period of exchange rate stability, even appreciation in their exchange rates owing to strong capital inflows and strong economic fundamentals. Pakistan can once again experience stability in its exchange rate, provided it puts its house in order, attracts foreign investment and other capital inflows, sustains economic growth in the range of 7-8 percent, keeps inflation at single-digit, enforces fiscal discipline, and reduces the country’s debt burden. Capital inflows are an economic barometer, conveying useful information based on the opinion of large numbers of investors who scrutinise economic indicators. Heavy capital inflows can cause problems for developing economies like Pakistan, pushing up the exchange rates.

I hope this will clear the misperceptions of those who believed that the exchange rate was “artificially” held during 2002-07.

The writer is principal and dean of NUST Business School, Islamabad. Email: ahkhan@nbs. edu.pk
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 15 Jan 201

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From The News (posting in full)
Multan By-polls: Ali Musa Gilani secures NA-148 seat
Updated 2 days ago

MULTAN: Prime Minister's son Syed Ali Musa Gilani won by-election for NA-148 Multan after defeating his rival from PML-N Abdul Ghaffar Dogar by a margin of 50,287 votes.
Musa Gilani secured 93,106 votes while Abdul Ghaffar bagged 42,819 votes, Election Commission officials said while unveiling unofficial results.

PPP leaders and workers came out on roads in jubilation while many of them also gathered outside the PM's house to join celebrations. (APP)
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