Iran News and Discussions

[Pranav]

But one has to acknowledge concerns of the other side and take a middle path.

This middle path thing is actually a wrong prescription, because it allows others to determine your path. If any side swerves to the right, your middle path too would turn rightwards. This is giving others the power to influence your policy.

Best path is one that takes you to your goals! That is provided one has any goals!!!

Others will influence your policy as long as they have something or can do something which you want. Af-Pak, GE 414, MR-SAM, and Rafael Litening pods will be a part of the equation along with the Chabahar port and oil supplies.

You need to take the path of least resistance that leads you to your goals.

In this case, IMHO, the path of least resistance is to continue to buy from Iran but reduce the quantity, and use the opportunity to pay in rupees, so that the trade imbalance can be reduced. Meanwhile, extract commitments on Af-Pak and other matters of concern.

[Agnimitra]

Iran Mulling Creation of 100-million-Strong Muslim Basij Army

TEHRAN (FNA)- Commander of Iran's Basij (volunteer) force Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Naqdi announced on Sunday that Tehran is studying formation of a 100-million-strong Muslim world Basij force.

"We will form the 100-million-strong Basij force of the Muslim world to materialize the promise of the late Imam Khomeini about the freedom of the noble Quds," Naqdi said.

He underlined that Basij will bravely and steadfastly continue its struggle and fight for the freedom of Quds from the occupation of Zionist regime and to release all mankind from the claws of the world arrogant powers.

Naqdi's remarks comes against the backdrop the Muslim world's popular uprisings and revolutions which are similar to what happened in Iran in 1979 under the leadership of the late Imam Khomeini.

Tunisia saw the overthrow of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in a popular revolution in January, which was soon followed by a revolution which toppled Hosni Mubarak in Egypt in February.

Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen and Libya have since been the scene of protests against their totalitarian rulers, who have resorted to brutal crackdown on demonstrations to silence their critics.

While Libya celebrated the victory of its revolution after the death of the country's dictator, Muammar Qaddafi, in October, uprisings continue in several other Muslim states.

Regional analysts and officials have underlined that Iran's Islamic Revolution led by the Late Founder of the Islamic Republic, Imam Khomeini, is the source of inspiration for the growing tides of Islamic awakening in the region.

Earlier, Ayatollah Khamenei had also underscored the profound and vast influence of Iran's Islamic Revolution on the growing waves of Islamic awakening in the region.

"Thanks to Islam and Islamic Revolution, a popular and overall Islamic awakening has happened in the region today, which will definitely yield its results as it has already yielded (some of) its results in certain points," Ayatollah Khamenei said in April.

Analysts believe that Iran's inspiration on these nations means that they share Iran's goals and ideals and are, thus, willing to joint such a 100-million-strong force.

[devesh]

^^^
100 million, huh?! if they send out these 100 million who will propagate the "seed" for next generation in home base? and perhaps they are mulling over the possibility of existential suicide! the material resources it would take to equip such an army would be immense. especially, in this day and age. they'll go bankrupt rationing their desert resources...

[suryag]

Is it true that the Basij marched with nothing but their holy book towards eye raqi positions during the war ?

[Rudradev]

Baap the entire population of Iran is 77 million, what sort of Madrassa Math derived this concept of "100 million" Basij?

Edit: Oh well, if all 23 million of Syria's population joined the Basij too, they might just about make it.

[suryag]

They could rent out from their neighbour, the neighbour anyways has a surfeit of expendables

[Neshant]

The Iran stuff looks like US/NATO attempt to raise energy insecurity for India & China and throttle both country's development efforts.

[Agnimitra]

Folks, laughs aside - its important to note that Khomeinism has a pan-Islamic (not just Iranian or pan-Shi'ite) vision. So Khomeini said and did a lot to bring Shi'ism and Sunni sects closer. He also spoke of this Basij mobilization from the whole Islamic world (over a billion people). Important to note also that several leading Sunni spiritual leaders over the past century have also been trying to draw Shi'ism and Sunni madhhabs closer together. Important among these is Said Nursi, the spiritual father of today's Turkish Gulenism.

[pgbhat]

Don't Expect Asia to Join the Iran Oil Embargo ----- Michael Moran

Nicholas Burns, a former Bush undersecretary of state and a man well-known in India for having negotiated the 2008 nuclear fuel deal (which has yet to win approval, btw), got front page play in the Times of India today for his normally low traffic column in “The Diplomat,” a kind of foreign service trade magazine, about New Dehli administering a “slap in the face” to India’s friends in Washington.

“This is bitterly disappointing news for those of us who have championed a close relationship with India. And, it represents a real setback in the attempt by the last three American Presidents to establish a close and strategic partnership with successive Indian governments,” he writes.
So publicly slapping them back makes sense?

Again, this is “old think,” the idea that because India is a democracy (or Brazil, or Turkey, or Indonesia or South Africa – the list goes on), it will plump for global crusades led by America. Unlike Europe after World War II, where the US template for global leadership was created, these are not prostrate democracies in danger of being overrun by a larger power.

Over the years – with encouragement, in fact, from decades of US rhetoric about self-determination and liberal market democracy in the old Third World – these countries have developed their own unique sense of national interests. They generally acknowledge that the surging growth rates of their economies owe a great deal to the world the US shaped and lorded it over from 1945 to 2008. But they don't regard that fact as granting Washington a carte blanche right to enlist them in trade embargos, covert action or war.

If the US is to forge a truly strategic relationship with India, it will have to be based on India’s national interests. Detaching ourselves from the absurd Alliance of the Blind with Pakistan would be a start. It would be too much to say India “has no dog” in the Iran fight – adding Iran to the list of global nuclear armed states holds no appeal to a country where Hindu-Muslim tensions and the rivalry over Kashmir with Pakistan are the two clearest risks to continued national prosperity. But India also developed its own nuclear capability “off the books.” To this day, ironically, international inspectors have greater access to Iran’s program than to India’s.

It should be said, too, that replacing 280 million barrels of oil – roughly what India purchased from Iran – would not simply be a matter of an executive decision.*

That sanctions are biting in Iran should be celebrated, but the real costs should also be tallied. Oil prices are rising and will rise further even without military action as the “replacement value” of non-Iranian oil spikes.

And diplomatically, pressure on India and Turkey to fall in line behind America where the benefits to either aren’t completely clear will only diminish Washington’s influence going forward.

[nvishal]

The west has the sunnis in their pockets. Shias have kept themselves dormant for too long against their sunni counterparts. Maybe a western attack on iran will guarantee a resurgence of shia islam... if only those stupid cowboys can settle this "non-diplomatically".

Best interest for India is to remain neutral and watch the fireworks. Maybe ample firepower will indeed cloud logic.

[Sri]

Iran has a love affair with the Basij concept. Please read 'In the Rose Garden of Matyrs'.It is the single most prevalent cultural phenomenon still dominating the Farsis.

[member_21708]

spike the price of oil---> world economies go into a death spiral---> present one world govt as a solution to the world crisis

plans to impose nwo makes this war in iran inevitable, prepare for all eventualities.

[Garooda]

On another note, if us SDREs are pathetically divided in our approach to TSP terror indirectly supported by US/UK (through military aid to TSPA), the Iranians are even worse....What a pathetic bunch of losers. They don't even know the games white west plays.

What does that tell you? Despite the education, knowledge and experience, people still make mistakes as they are mislead. There is always the HUMAN factor that is beyond control no matter how advanced a society becomes. Just the way Indian opposition party crams masala into certain segment of the population, I'm sure the Iranian opposition from within is feeding similar masala to their segment of the population. The US is ofcourse the outside gumba to make it happen for the Iranian opposition party waiting to grab the power if the current President is ousted. Both get what they want. One gets the puppet government and the opposition party within iran, control of resources and the ever illusive Political Power. Ofcourse MSM (Main Stream Media) and Internet has a big role to play Why do you think the CONGRESS is pondering around the idea of Internet Censorship of social networks?

March first week of 2012 would be interesting as its the Parliamentary Elections in Iran. Last time up there were protests after the controversial re-election of the current iranian president.

[Garooda]

Interview with Iran Amb to India.

‘We Were Not Happy With India’s Stance At The IAEA’

We were also not happy with Iran's stance on Kashmir!

Isn't it something What goes around comes around

Laws of Karma Simply amazing.

[Garooda]

http://www.haaretz.com/news/internation ... a-1.408429

American Jew suggests Israel should assassinate Obama, so that pro-war president come to power.

This guy wasn't arrested and locked up? A few years ago, a naive Indian student said something not even close to assassination, about Bush, but he was busted and locked up.

Nothing has happened to him as perhaps majority of the americans are not happy with Obama ?

[Garooda]

West has always been and likely always will be,overtly critical of Iran,thanks to Israel.
Russia,India,China see the other side of the picture, the fallout of a war between Iran and USA will snowball into the worst catastrophe that the entire Middle East and its adjacent countries will ever see.

While everyone sees the Israeli angle, very few here focus on the KSA angle. Essentially the Shia-Sunni angle. According to Wikileaks, it was KSA which was encouraging military action by the US, not Israel.
It is a mess, the Israel-Arab conflict, the Shia-Sunni conflict, the Chinese angle, the Russian angle. So many different players with different agendas.

It will probably become much clear...30 years from now when our grand children will be reading about it in History lessons. For now, all we can do is a good guesswork based on the chess moves. Each and every player has their own agenda and something to profit/benefit from this including the local opposition within Iran.

[Garooda]

Baap the entire population of Iran is 77 million, what sort of Madrassa Math derived this concept of "100 million" Basij?

Edit: Oh well, if all 23 million of Syria's population joined the Basij too, they might just about make it.

In addition, how many of them are men and old enough to fight? All exaggeration.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Iran

[Prem]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/ ... ZU20120221
Exclusive: China, India plan Iran oil cuts of 10 percent or more

Reuters) - China, India and Japan are planning cuts of at least 10 percent in Iranian crude imports as tightening U.S. sanctions make it difficult for the top Asian buyers to keep doing business with the OPEC producer.
The countries together buy about 45 percent of Iran's crude exports. The reductions are the first significant evidence of how much crude business Iran could lose in Asia this year as Washington tries to tighten a financial noose around Tehran.he cuts would add to a European Union ban on Iran oil imports, which comes into effect on July 1, to restrict the flow of vital foreign exchange to Tehran under pressure over its nuclear program.Japan is close to an agreement with Washington on the size of cuts needed to win waivers from the U.S. sanctions, two ministers said. The Yomiuri newspaper, citing unidentified sources, said the two sides would settle on an 11 percent cut.
INDIA AND CHINA CUTS
India is Iran's second-biggest crude buyer after China. Iran provides about 12 percent of India's demand, or 370,000 barrels per day (bpd).New Delhi indicated refineries should cut their imports from Iran by about 10-15 percent in the year through March 2013, one source said.Another source said the cut should be "substantial."The government had indicated it did not intend to seek a waiver from U.S. sanctions by cutting Iran crude imports and that it intended to keep trade flowing with Tehran.It is planning to offset some Iranian imports against India's corresponding exports via a rupee payments system to keep trade moving.

[Christopher Sidor]

^^^^
It is amazing the level of control which north-Atlantic countries have over world finance. Just a threat that financial institutions and banks dealing with Iran will not be able to access North-Atlantic markets is sufficient. We might have political freedom. But we certainly don't have economic freedom.

[shyamd]

Self-interest must guide our actions

The signature on the February 13 bomb attack on the Israeli embassy staffer in New Delhi was unmistakably Iranian and the handiwork of its secretive Al Quds force with a high degree of deniability built into it. The bomber, who stuck the remotely detonated improvised explosive device onto an Israeli embassy vehicle, was in all probability a local. But the entire operation was controlled from outside the country. This attack was part of the coordinated bombings by Iranians against Zionist targets in Tbilisi in Georgia and Bangkok in Thailand.

While the Tbilisi bomb was made of C-4 plastic explosive with an external antenna, the Delhi bomb prima facie contained inorganic radicals and alumina powder, explaining the incendiary nature of the device. Even though the attack was part of the extended covert war played out by Israeli and Iranian intelligence agencies since 2008 — with the former out to covertly eliminate scientists helping Tehran's nuclear programme — New Delhi should be seething in anger as India has become the new battleground in this war. The attack demonstrates that Iran, like Pakistan, has created assets in India for its covert operations.

The incident indicates that Iran believes that India is part of the western effort to defang its nuclear capabilities and in many ways a betrayal of New Delhi's trust, as the UPA government has exercised considerable strategic autonomy when it has come to Tehran. Post-sanctions, Indian oil imports from Iran have fallen from 21.8 million tonnes in 2008-09 to 17.5 million tonnes in 2011-12. The oil component of imports from Iran has fallen from 16.5% to 10.5% of the total trade with Tehran. But New Delhi is averse to putting all its eggs in one basket and becoming totally dependent on Saudi Arabia for its energy requirements. Despite serious US pressure, India is discovering innovative financial methods to continue with Iranian oil imports as it requires this for its energy security needs. Yet Tehran decided to export ‘revolutionaries' to India and detonate a bomb in its territory.

While both Tel Aviv and Washington are using the bomb attack to pump up India to take action against Iran, New Delhi's action should be dictated by its own interests. After all, the US is still to declare the Haqqani network as a terrorist outfit despite attacks on American targets in Afghanistan and the bombing of the Indian embassy in Kabul. Similar US inaction has been noticed against Pakistan's ISI despite its proven involvement in the 2001 Parliament attack and the 26/11 Mumbai massacre. This was pointed out to ranking American lawmakers by Indian foreign secretary Ranjan Mathai in Washington this month.

The fact is that the Barack Obama administration is seeking approval for $2.4 billion in aid to Pakistan this year and is making all efforts to revive engagement with Islamabad, the latter being the original source of nuclear proliferation to Tehran. With US dependence on West Asian oil expected to come down to 6% by 2016 and to 0% in 2020, there is no guarantee that Americans and other western powers will not shed their present hostility and engage Iran at a later stage.

However, this is not to advocate that India defies sanctions against Tehran or condones Iranian behaviour towards India as amply demonstrated by the bomb attack. Even though the chances are that New Delhi may not get direct evidence of the Iranian role behind the bombing, Raisina Hill has read the call signs and they point towards Tehran.

After the attack, New Delhi has cancelled intelligence-sharing talks with Iran. But this is not all. Rather than shouting from the rooftops, Indian security agencies and the Delhi Police must meticulously investigate the attack and bring the culprits to book. A hard message must be sent to Iranian proxies Hamas and Hezbollah through established interlocutors that New Delhi will not tolerate attacks on its soil and efforts should be made to take out their assets among the student community.

Indian diplomatic efforts should be targeted at Iran to explain that New Delhi has been publicly opposed nuclear weapons in West Asia and is not part of any Zionist conspiracy to dismantle Tehran's nuclear capabilities. Just as India buys oil from Tehran, it purchases defence equipment from Israel. So while the UPA government should refuse to swallow the Israeli bait that the Iranian terror attack was targeted at India, the time has come to give a hard diplomatic message to Iran. If security agencies uncover any involvement of Iran in the February 13 attack, then its diplomats should be discreetly expelled or declared persona non grata. India cannot afford one more such attack on its soil.

[Prem]

http://www.theatlantic.com/internationa ... mb/253430/

What Will Iran Do if it Gets a Nuclear Bomb

In a self-help international system, Waltz contended, "states must rely on the means they can generate and the arrangements they can make for themselves." He argued that a second-strike nuclear capability is the most reliable means for a state to assure its survival by dissuading other states from attacking. Due to fears of escalation, "new nuclear states will feel the constraints that present nuclear states have experienced."Sagan, meanwhile, countered Waltz's optimism with two arguments based in organizational theory. First, "professional military organizations--because of common biases, inflexible routines, and parochial interests--display organizational behaviors that are likely to lead to deterrence failures and deliberate or accidental war." Second, "future nuclear-armed states will lack the positive mechanisms of civilian control." Sagan therefore called for a U.S. nonproliferation policy that includes reaffirming to nascent nuclear states that the bomb "will make their states targets for preventive attacks by their potential adversaries, will not easily lead to survivable arsenals, and will raise the specter of accidental or unauthorized uses of nuclear weapons."

A nuclear-armed Iran is not likely to act much differently. Most importantly, Iran will have no incentive to use its nuclear weapons in aggression; doing so against Israeli or American targets would gain Iran little and cost it much. On a more practical level, an Iranian bomb also will not substantially change the general strategic dynamics. In a series of articles, Victor Asal and I have shown that states with nuclear weapons tend to face less hostility from opponents, be in shorter crises, and prevail more often in their crises against non-nuclear states.The logic is that nuclear weapons are an effective deterrent that temper aggression. According to this logic, the main benefit to Iran of acquiring nuclear weapons is to deter military threats by its primary adversaries, Israel and the United States. Given that Iran already has a strong deterrent--via its importance to hydrocarbon supplies, robust conventional forces, ability to disrupt fragile situations in Lebanon and Iraq, and Western war weariness--it is doubtful that Iran will notice much immediate advantage from obtaining nuclear weapons

Iran currently restrains its foreign policy for fear of U.S. military retaliation, but with a nuclear counter-deterrent it would be emboldened to push harder, stepping up support for terrorist groups, brandishing nuclear weapons for coercive purposes, and adopting a more aggressive foreign policy. A nuclear Iran could constrain U.S. freedom of action in the Middle East by threatening nuclear war in response to major U.S. initiatives in the region.A more aggressive Iran would lead to an even more crisis-prone region, and any crisis involving a nuclear-armed Iran could spiral out of control and result in a nuclear war against Israel or even, once Iran has developed the requisite delivery vehicles, the U.S. homeland.

[Philip]

As the crisis escalates,India should actually buy MORE Iranian oil and build up a huge strategic reserve just as the US has done.This crisis has its opportunity and before the shots are fired,which appears likely at some point in the future,which will drive prices up dramatically,India should buy as much light Iranian crude as it can and store the same in huge underground storage facilities as in the US.That the crisis will escalate into fighting is more or less certain if the reports below are accurate.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... -site.html

UN: Iran is enriching uranium at secret site
IRAN must address “serious concerns” about “possible military dimensions” to its nuclear programme after significantly escalating its ability to enrich uranium, the International Atomic Energy Agency said yesterday.

By David Blair

8:06PM GMT 24 Feb 2012

The latest report by United Nations experts disclosed a 42 per cent rise in the number of operational centrifuges enriching uranium inside the Natanz facility in the last four months.

Work inside a second, previously secret enrichment plant has also been stepped up, with 698 centrifuges operating inside the Fordow installation near Qom, a 69 per cent increase on the number recorded during the last inspection in October.

Meanwhile, the IAEA said that Iran had declined to offer full co-operation to its inspectors when they visited the country earlier this month. In particular, they were prevented from visiting a military location at Parchin, where experiments that would only be relevant to mastering the detonation system of nuclear weapons are understood to have been conducted. It bemoaned bemoaned "major differences" with Iran after two fruitless visits.

Guido Westerwelle, the German foreign minister, said that he was “very concerned about the latest report from the IAEA”, adding: “We think Iran should understand the key to ending sanctions is in their own hands: they have a duty to co-operate with the international community.”

The latest report by the IAEA is likely to deepen Israel’s fears about Iran’s intentions, particularly the build-up of centrifuges in the Fordow facility, which is dug into a mountainside and could be immune from military attack.

The IAEA reported that 8,808 centrifuges were functioning inside Natanz, compared with 6,208 on its last visit, although the report cautioned that not all of the machines may have been working. Iran’s experts had also installed the casings for another 6,177 centrifuges.

[Austin]

US spooks say no Iranian nukes

[Philip]

So is this all shadow play to scare the globe and send oil prices higher to benefit vested interests? There was a nice cartoon in one of the papers.with the Israeli and Iranian leaders each armed heavily,cursing and rushing towards the other ,wit a fat oil cat smirking on the sidelines saying,"can't wait for the fght to start".

[uskumar]

good article on India interest in Iran

[Neshant]

After the way Libya/Gaddafi was befriended, de-nuclearized ... only to be invaded, robbed and murdered, nobody trusts a word coming from US or Europe or the biased UN/IAEA inspectors for that matter. First Iraq, then Venesuela (attempt failed), then Libya, now Iran... its a partnership between NATO countries to practice creeping expansionism on oil producers at the expense of Asia.

The reality if their program becomes self-sufficient like India's, they are in essence a nucelar weapon power regardless of whether they test or not. No country will invade them for fear they could rapidly weaponize and use the bomb.

So what really are these sanctions meant to do? Maybe attack them and force them to declare nuclear capability and then call for international sanctions? Or pehaps its meant to extract some promises from them that they will not take their program beyond a certain point rather than making them pledge they will never develop nukes. Or maybe its to try and force India to become dependant on NATO controlled sources of oil so the taps can be turned off if needed?

[member_20617]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-17115643

[nvishal]

Those irani nukes(under whatever capacity) will be useless under the states control. It will take a pre-emptive operation by the cowboys to make the game more interesting.

But who knows... pakistan had the balls to make cross-border strikes because it was under the US security umbrella. Iran however is under no such third party umbrella. By striking in delhi, thailand etc it openly dared the US that iran is ready for war(ie, ready to accept the costs of war). But is the US ready to accept the "costs" of this particular war.

[Prem]

http://dailycaller.com/2012/02/27/obama ... lear-deal/
Obama, Iran in secret nuclear deal

sources inside Iran tell me that President Obama, seeking to protect the recovering U.S. economy and bolster his chances of being re-elected in November, apparently has entered into an informal agreement with Iran that he believes will defuse the nuclear weapons crisis and keep Israel from attacking the Islamic regime.The agreement calls for the United States to acknowledge that Iran is not pursuing nuclear weapons, and for Iran to hand over its highly enriched uranium, which is necessary for nuclear weaponization.Iran, for its part, though engaging Obama, has no intention of abiding by the agreement and is stepping up its nuclear enrichment program clandestinely, even as it prepares for a war it believes it can win.The Iranians have now expanded their nuclear program to the point where they not only have enough low-enriched uranium for six nuclear bombs but also have doubled their stock of highly enriched uranium of 20 percent. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) recently reported that Iran has added 3,000 more centrifuges to the Natanz facility, bringing the total to 9,000, and has started enriching to 20 percent at the previous secret site, the Fordow facility, which is deep within a mountain and secure against any attack. Such production could give Iran weapons-grade uranium for nuclear bombs within weeks.As revealed in January, Obama sent a message to the Iranian leaders through three different channels. Part of it, disclosed by the Iranian officials, reflected a message by the U.S. president asking for cooperation and negotiation based on mutual interests, but more importantly, it assured Iran that America will not take any action against the Islamic regime.
Sources within Iran reveal that Khamenei, in a secret meeting with his top officials and military commanders, has issued a directive to push for a step-by-step Russian proposal to defuse the crisis in which Iran would only hand over its 20 percent enrichment stock while keeping all low-enriched uranium stock (enough for six nuclear bombs) and cooperate more with the IAEA (all the while continuing its enrichment activity). In exchange, the West would ease up on the sanctions as each step is taken.

[Philip]

Given the details of the above report about secret talsk between BO and the Iranians,it may b the case that what Israel fears most is not the nuclear weaponisation of Iran ,which when compared with Israel's speculated arsenal would be miniscule in comparison, as much as the psychological security of being a N-weapon state that comes with the status.This would then ,just as was the case with Pak,embolden Iran to further expand its support for the Hiz and Hamas too,complicating Israel's security to breaking point.

I think that Israel's enemies have long ago got the message that any nuclear attack,or attack against its nuclear facilities from any quarter,would invite the mother of all nuclear responses against its list of enemies in return! Such a suicidal policy despite all its rhetoric,does not appear to be part of Iranian/Persian DNA.The Iranians bete noire are the Sunni Saudis,who have long ago acquired ballistic missiles from China,to be mated with Paki made nuclear warheads ,which explains the exceptionally close relationship between the two and why Paki leaders rush to Riyadh whenever there is a crisis at home.

[Prem]

India Mulls Guarantees for Shippers Carrying Iran Oil
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... lenews_wsj

NEW DELHI -- India will consider steps including providing sovereign guarantees to local shipping companies so that they continue to get insurance cover for transporting crude oil from Iran, the top bureaucrat in the shipping ministry said Tuesday."A decision on it will be taken in two to three months," Shipping Secretary K. Mohandas told reporters.Indian shippers usually take covers from European firms, which are now reluctant to provide indemnity for transporting crude from Iran due to the U.S. and the European Union tightening sanctions against the Middle East nation for its alleged program to develop nuclear weapons.A full oil embargo by the EU will likely come into effect July 1.India has said it won't follow sanctions imposed by a country or a bloc and will continue to import crude from Iran.Global shipping companies such as AP Moller-Maersk A/S, Frontline Ltd. and Teekay Tankers Ltd. Global shipping companies such as AP Moller-Maersk A/S, Frontline Ltd. and Teekay Tankers Ltd. have said their ships won't call at Iranian ports after the EU sanctions are enforced.Mr. Mohandas said the Indian government may also study the CNF mode--cost, no insurance and freight--in which the buyer, instead of the transporter, is responsible for insurance cost. This mode will allow the buyer to choose a local insurance company of its choice.

[Prem]

http://www.firstpost.com/world/how-an-i ... 26604.html
How an Iran ‘oil shock’ will wallop India’s economy

Pranab Mukherjee is known to be a devout man. So, if he has any faith in prayers at all, he should now be praying fervently that the crisis over Iran’s nuclear programme, which has had Israel itching to launch a pre-emptive military strike, doesn’t escalate any further.For if it does, an ‘oil shock’ resulting from disruption of oil supply in West Asia would cause oil prices to spike in a way that renders the Indian economy, more than that of any other country, particularly vulnerable.In particular, India faces a ‘triple whammy’ arising from its vulnerabilities on three counts – its current account deficits, its fuel subsidies, and budget deficits. And any escalation in Iran-Israeli tension, which has already sent crude oil prices edging up, could represent the sum of all fears for the Pranab-da, who has already complained that the spike in subsidies is causing him to lose sleep.India probably faces more downside risk to growth than others in the region,” warns UBS economist Duncan Wooldridge. “You need to be cautious about any economy running a current account deficit and here India stands out.” In particular, rising oil prices could worsen current account balances, and an expanding current account deficit could lead to currency weakness and force domestic rates higher to fund the deficit, he adds.Rising oil prices could also be especially bad news at a time when the RBI appeared to be about to ease up on the monetary tightening of last year, and industry and the equity markets are counting on a lowering of interest rates to revive growth.

[ramana]

So is this all shadow play to scare the globe and send oil prices higher to benefit vested interests? There was a nice cartoon in one of the papers.with the Israeli and Iranian leaders each armed heavily,cursing and rushing towards the other ,with a fat oil cat smirking on the sidelines saying,"can't wait for the fight to start".

Exactly my thoughts today. High oil price slows the Asiatic economy growth by itself while the West is in the doldrums.

None of these powers can afford a war that will plunge them deeper into recession. Nor is there manpower. After Koran episodes in Af-Pak there is no heart to take on one more crusade.

[Prem]

Asian economies have already crossed the critical mass where they might slow down but wont get hurt much . Question to be pondered by good folks running the show is how are the deal with the aftermath. US still dont have the full recovery and another recession trigered by high oil prices will be a double whammy when half the popuation is already living on food stamps. 2012 war with Iran will make Russia the clear absolute victor of Cold war by 2020 by winning both moral and economic argument and we be back in century old era of 1920-30 in Europe while Asia charts its own course , starting with new BRIC bank and eventual ACU=Asian Currency UNIT from Tokyo to Turkey.

[abhischekcc]

It is not just that. The money that KSA has surplus after spending on its domestic budget, goes straight to the US financial markets. That is why US is interested is pushing oil demand towards KSA - because in the end it will end up in their own hands.

[Prem]

Iran Looks to Buy Wheat From India

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... lenews_wsj

NEW DELHI -- With western sanctions hitting supply from the U.S and Europe, Iran may buy up to 3 million metric tons of wheat from India through private deals, industry officials said Tuesday.Once the two countries are able to find a way to get around restrictions on payment due to the sanctions, this deal could potentially open doors for the export of other food items to Iran, they said."The payments by Iran could be in rupees...It is being worked out," said one of the officials who didn't wish to be named. The value of the deals being discussed is estimated at $750 million to $900 million.One option being looked at is Iran using rupee payments received against oil exports to India to buy wheat and other food products from the latter.A delegation that includes representatives of Iran's central bank is expected in New Delhi this week to discuss the deals and the payment mechanism, a second official said.Iran has recently turned to Australia, Canada and Russia to buy wheat and corn to replenish stocks.The success of any deal will hinge on the two establishing a payment mechanism as shipments of premium basmati rice and tea have been disrupted after sanctions were imposed.Another issue that needs to be sorted out is the port of delivery."I think private traders in India would be willing to supply wheat to Iran, so long as they take delivery at Indian ports," said M.K. Dattaraj, former president of the Roller Flour Millers Federation of India. "Otherwise, logistics can get complicated."Besides wheat, Iran is also keen to buy edible oils, corn and sugar, an Indian official said.Wheat from India is likely to be shipped at a price of $300/ton free on board.
Such an order could help Indian traders at a time when the country has plentiful supply after two bumper crops. Domestic exporters have also been struggling as high domestic prices make exports difficult.

[member_21708]

Having blunt talks with India, China on Iran: US

Last Updated: Wednesday, February 29, 2012, 10:03
Having blunt talks with India, China on Iran: US Washington: The United States is having "very intense and very blunt" conversations with India, China and Turkey on reducing their dependence on Iranian oil, the Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has told lawmakers.

Hillary, testifying before a Congressional committee yesterday, said the US is asking these countries to take specific measures that would reduce their dependence on Iranian oil adding. But, without naming one, she did acknowledge that this would be a bit tough for some countries.

"With respect to China and Turkey and India, we've had very intense and very blunt conversations with each of those countries. I think that there are a number of steps that we are pointing out to them that we believe they can and should make," Hillary said while responding to questions from Senator Robert Menendez.

"In a number of cases, both on their government side and on their business side, they are taking actions that go further and deeper than perhaps their public statements might lead you to believe," Hillary said.

"We are going to continue to keep an absolute foot on the pedal in terms of our accelerated, aggressive outreach to them. And they are looking for ways to make up the lost revenues, the lost crude oil," she said.

Claiming that oil deficit is a difficulty for several other countries, Hillary said US has come up with lots of suggestions that would help these countries in resolving the crisis.

"Our expectation and the direction we are giving to countries is that we do expect to see significant reductions. I am pleased to report, Senator, that we've been aggressively reaching out to and working with countries to assist them in being able to make such significant reductions," Hillary said.

Earlier in the day, testifying before the State, Foreign Operations and Related Programs Subcommittee of the Senate Appropriations Committee, Hillary told Senators the US is aggressively pursuing sanctions against Iran.

"We are implementing the new Iran sanctions aggressively. The (US) President issued an executive order on February 6th that blocks assets under US jurisdiction of all Iranian banks; also makes it clear that both the Departments of Treasury and State are expected to enforce the sanctions absolutely," she said.

"We have been travelling the world, high-level teams from Treasury, Energy and State, to explain what the sanctions are to counterparts around the world. We're very frank in these discussions about the requirements of US law," the US leader said. Meanwhile, a broad range of countries are making decisions to reduce their dependence on Iranian crude, unwind their dealings with the central bank of Iran, she said.

"We are also pushing very hard to make it clear that we'll help countries that have a significant dependence on Iranian crude to try to find alternatives. It is something that they have to look for. They can't just stop cold turkey and not have anything fuelling their economies," Hillary said.

While referring to the steps being taken by the European Union and Japan, the Secretary of State said that some of the major oil producers have set forth their willingness to try to make up the difference.

"We've seen increasing difficulty by Iran in importing and exporting products. They cannot purchase third-party liability coverage for their vessels. So we've stopped them from being insured, which means they can't travel," she said.

Hillary added that the Japan, which lost much of their electricity production because of the earthquake and the Fukushima nuclear power plant meltdown, had reduced their imports from Iran in the range of 15 to 20 per cent since last year and is looking for new suppliers.

Disruption of petroleum products is imminent, the govt will not warn the public about it, Wise see the signs and take action, Time to buy electric bikes so least transport within city is possible
http://www.infibeam.com/SDP.action?cata ... YOSPIN2007
http://www.infibeam.com/SDP.action?cata ... OSMART2007
http://www.infibeam.com/SDP.action?cata ... OSPEED2007

People should pool together their collective wisdom and come up with solutions to mitigate the effects of the coming oil shock

[ramana]

If all those countries depend on non Iran based oil wont that drive up the price of oil and thus drag the US economy down?

Whats the point of blunt talks when it hurts ones own economy which is in doldrums as BB said today!

[shyamd]

x posting
India ignores US, keeps Iran ties

Even as US secretary of state Hillary Clinton has gone public with a "blunt and intense" message to India to isolate Iran, New Delhi has continued with functional and transactional relationship with Tehran.

In its efforts to shore up peace efforts in Afghanistan, India has for
the first time used the Chabahar port to move 100,000 metric tonnes of wheat to Kabul.

Chabahar, in south Iran bordering Pakistan, is the port closest to and directly linked with Afghanistan. India's usual route to Kabul is the longer Zaranj-Delaram highway.

"We have had very intense and very blunt conversations with each of those countries (India, as well as China and Turkey) and I think that there are a number of steps that we are pointing out to them that we believe they can and should take," Clinton said on Tuesday.

The steps include reduced dependency on Iranian oil and isolation of Tehran for its alleged nuclear programme.

Notwithstanding American assertions, which were answered in equal terms by foreign secretary Ranjan Mathai during his US visit this month, India is taking practical steps to pay for Iranian oil without violating UN sanctions.

A Central Bank of Iran team is in Delhi to find a way out for crude oil payments from India. India buys $12 billion worth of crude from Iran but cannot make payments due to sanction on banks.

Since India, for strategic reasons, cannot afford to put all it eggs in the Saudi crude basket, it is sending an official trade delegation to Iran on March 10-14 to increase imports in non-sanctioned items to balance the oil payments.

In this context, India will increase wheat, rice and medicine exports to Iran so that it can pay for the Iranian oil in kind.

The Centre knows that despite sanctions, European countries are minting money supplying drugs to Iran.

New Delhi needs Tehran's ports, particularly Chahbahar, to reach out to Afghanistan and Central Asia as the US has never put pressure on Pakistan to provide the Wagah-Khyber axis for its goods.

[Prem]

http://warisacrime.org/content/openly-lying-us-war-iran
Openly Lying Us Into War With Iran
This is from p. 84-5 in Which Path to Persia?: Options for a New American Strategy toward Iran, a June, 2009 book edited and co-authored by Kenneth Pollack of the Brookings Institution:.

..absent a clear Iranian act of aggression, American airstrikes against Iran would be unpopular in the region and throughout the world...it would be far more preferable if the United States could cite an Iranian provocation as justification for the airstrikes before launching them. Clearly, the more outrageous, the more deadly, and the more unprovoked the Iranian action, the better off the United States would be. Of course, it would be very difficult for the United States to goad Iran into such a provocation without the rest of the world recognizing this game, which would then undermine it. (One method that would have some possibility of success would be to ratchet up covert regime change efforts in the hope that Tehran would retaliate overtly, or even semi-overtly, which could then be portrayed as an unprovoked act of Iranian aggression.) ... [T]he use of airstrikes could not be the primary U.S. policy toward Iran...until Iran provided the necessary pretext.

You may remember Pollack from The Threatening Storm: The Case for Invading Iraq, the 2002 book cited by all the nice liberals who sadly and reluctantly supported war. What you don't remember—because none of the nice liberals mentioned it—is that on p. 364-5 of The Threatening Storm Pollack presented exactly the same option regarding Iraq:Assembling a [] coalition would be infinitely easier if the United States could point to a smoking gun with Iraqi fingerprints on it—some new Iraqi outrage that would serve to galvanize international opinion and create the pretext for an invasion...
There are probably [] courses the United States could take that might prompt Saddam to make a foolish, aggressive move, that would then become the "smoking gun" justifying an invasion. An aggressive U.S. covert action campaign might provoke Saddam to retaliate overtly, providing a casus belli...What matters about this is that Pollack is right at the heart of the Democratic Party's foreign policy establishment, and he's completely comfortable proposing that he and his friends lie the world into war after war in the mideast. (The other authors of Which Path to Persia? are Daniel L. Byman, Martin Indyk, Suzanne Maloney, Michael E. O’Hanlon and Bruce Riedel.) No one he hangs around with will find anything jarring about this. And he knows he can count on the media to never mention this option is being openly kicked around before the war starts. (Pollack is Ted Koppel's son-in-law.)