Geopolitical thread

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 23 Feb 2012 10:36

ramana wrote:Ottomons were very powerful. Even though the were defeated at Vienna in 1684 it took 250 years for final defeat in WWI.

I beg to differ sir. Ottomans had the advantage that their empire existed in a time where time compression due to rapid tech innovation and tech revolution was not yet there. OTOH TSP faces both tech obsolescence and an eventual demise into a nominal entity, Pak-e-Tablet jokes notwithstanding.

JohnTitor · Post by **JohnTitor** » 23 Feb 2012 18:18

Philip wrote:When you have a "plasticene" PM in charge of India,what other result do you expect? This buffoon in times of crisis behaves like the proverbial ostrich ,burying his head in the sand,or like a tortoise when sensing danger retreats into its shell or turban in this case.

Further disgracng rhe good name of India is the MEA.The Ministry of Eunuchs and Asses.The current FM cannot even distinguish his speech (written for him) from that of the Portugese FM! China can nibble away Indian territory in Ar.Pr.,the MEA denies it.Emboldened by our eunuch's silence,they have now planted themselves in POK,the MEA denies it,taking the view that they are just "visiting"! Visas are stapled,the MEA mandarins run around like headless chickens,not wanting to upset the Chinese by retaliating in kind.
These parasites do not want to be posted to certain countries,viewing them as "punishment postings" and lobby politicos to get their lum posts in the fleshpots of Europe or America.Compare them with our loyal jawans serving in below zero temperatures at Siachen and elsewhere,at altitudes where no living creatures live ? A fish rots from the head and India's PM is sadly rotten from turban to toe.

++1 !

Sadly I wholeheartedly agree with you. Such a disgrace our country has to bare.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 23 Feb 2012 22:17

Klaus wrote:
ramana wrote:Ottomons were very powerful. Even though the were defeated at Vienna in 1684 it took 250 years for final defeat in WWI.
I beg to differ sir. Ottomans had the advantage that their empire existed in a time where time compression due to rapid tech innovation and tech revolution was not yet there. OTOH TSP faces both tech obsolescence and an eventual demise into a nominal entity, Pak-e-Tablet jokes notwithstanding.

My point is there is significant time delay between defeat and collapse in Islamic states.

If you want to discuss TSP, its the defeat in 1971 which has set off the downward spiral in TSP. By becoming the frontlying state(1979), acquiring nukes and missiles from PRC (1987-1998), sponsoring terroristm as a state policy(1990-curretn), TSP has only delayed the inevitable. Defeat has its consequences and TSP Army has managed to stave of the consequences with US help mainly. However the TSP society outside the Army is a mess.
Hence it cant last forever.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 24 Feb 2012 08:27

The New Asian Tiger? Ten things you didn't know about Vietnam's rise.

US Army reading list

US Army reading list: Good but a bit of a hole where Iraq and Afghanistan used to be

JohnTitor · Post by **JohnTitor** » 24 Feb 2012 15:40

ramana wrote:My point is there is significant time delay between defeat and collapse in Islamic states.

Interesting theory ramana.

Going by this theory, what would you say resulted in the collapse of the British empire as well as the USSR?

For the former, I'm more inclined to believe the loss of the american colonies caused it, rather than WW1, by WW2 Britain wasn't an "empire" anymore.

Ravi Karumanchiri · Post by **Ravi Karumanchiri** » 25 Feb 2012 00:14

X-POSTED NOTICE RE: STRATFOR “Strategic Forecasting” // “Global Intelligence”

Rakshaks,

I’m not sure how much “play” this story got – I’ve had my head down for a few weeks now – but perhaps this event provides an opportunity you’ll want to avail yourself of:

It recently made the news that one of America’s “thought-leader” think tanks “STRATFOR” was badly hacked, probably by the Chinese, and a list of all their subscribers was revealed, including a virtual “who’s who” in the US Government’s Departments of State and Defense. Indeed, STRATFOR stuff has been required reading for this lot since forever.

Well, in response to this enormous security breach, STRATFOR has removed the (completely compromised) password/login rigmarole and is now offering all of its web content for free.

Go to http://www.stratfor.com/ where the top line reads “Temporarily offering all content for free”. The “Geopolitical Diary” and “Analysis” sections are particularly interesting.

There are literally hundreds of articles on all sorts of (security/defense/geopolitical) topics, many of which will greatly interest Rakshaks.

Certainly, it is interesting to read what those folks are reading – it provides a window on their world, which after all, we all share.

Enjoy!

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 25 Feb 2012 00:23

Shonu wrote:
ramana wrote:My point is there is significant time delay between defeat and collapse in Islamic states.
Interesting theory ramana.

Going by this theory, what would you say resulted in the collapse of the British empire as well as the USSR?

For the former, I'm more inclined to believe the loss of the american colonies caused it, rather than WW1, by WW2 Britain wasn't an "empire" anymore.

1857 ended the East India company model of the British Empire. It was on life support after that. The Brits had to take direct control and that led to its own demise. The British Empire had power and wealth to survive till middle of WW2. By 1943, they were down and out and handed the baton to the US.

The FSU really started downhill in 1973 Yom Kippur war once they lost Egypt as proxy.
Twenty years later they were no more.

Agnimitra · Post by **Agnimitra** » 25 Feb 2012 00:37

^^^ Ramana ji,

So what determines such a watershed event? Given the qabilah model, how does the amoeba-like splitting of Pakistan into Bangladesh qualify as such a watershed event that will inexorably lead to demise? It seems unlikely. By a similar token, what about China's slapping down India in 1962? Would that qualify as a watershed event?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 25 Feb 2012 00:54

Carl wrote:^^^ Ramana ji,

So what determines such a watershed event? Given the qabilah model, how does the amoeba-like splitting of Pakistan into Bangladesh qualify as such a watershed event that will inexorably lead to demise? It seems unlikely. By a similar token, what about China's slapping down India in 1962? Would that qualify as a watershed event?

All this is my thoughts no backing from great thinkers. So no refs to quote.

The 1971 ameoba splitting also broke the religion based state where nationalism asserted itself. In itself it was a time compressed mini "Thirty Year" in the Indian sub-continent and led to a stable state model there. Trace the East Paksitan politics from 1968 to 1971.

The kabila model got confined to TSP. IOW the Banlgadeshis dethroned the kabila guards with India's help. True they had their share of Islamist coups but the big picture trend in Bangla Desh is a move from the kabila model to a settled nation state.

Coming to 1962 PRC aggression or slap was only a political jhapad and not a defeat of Indian military.

Proof of that is the changes in political structure in India:Syndicate wars, rise of the family coterie in INC politics etc.

And the 'stalemate' in 1965 and the decisive victory in 1971.

A defeated military doesn't recover so quickly. No malaise

Eg. Vietnam to Desert Storm or Vichy France

Agnimitra · Post by **Agnimitra** » 25 Feb 2012 01:17

ramana wrote:The 1971 ameoba splitting also broke the religion based state where nationalism asserted itself.

Ramana ji I agree with your thoughts on India's case after 1962, but I'm not convinced about the fate of qabilah memes in, both, TSP and Bangladesh.

We need to refine qabilah model to understand that it thrives on the available artifacts of (other) civilization. these artifacts include not just technological werewithal, but also ideological and political constructs. It can bury itself in these, as well as ride them like a mule.

In fact, this very metaphor, of "riding the kaafir progress like a mule" has been used by great Islamic Imams - including Said Nursi, the spiritual father of modern Turkish Islamist resurgence. Almost a century ago he told his disciples to bury themselves patiently and allow Turkey to be swept by Kemalist Westernization, so that Turkey would acquire the technological attitudes of the West. He said it doesn't make the West superior - rather they are just non-dead infidel demons, sub-human because of supposedly not believing in God, and fit to be ridden like mules.

Only the relative boldness or subterfuge with which the qabila shows its face is influenced by the relative political equations in space-time. TSP shows it more starkly because it is joined to the ME core, plus has plenty of patronage from the Anglosphere. Bangladesh grows in India's sweaty armpit, and so the manifestation there will be through subterfuge and adaptation, and messy non-militant infiltration spillover.

This hardy viability of qabila meme is in contrast to the brittleness of other non-Indic material civilizations. This is because other materialistic civilizations have used qabilah-like constructs (such as armies and religion) to further their lopsided purshaarthik aims, which were mostly limited to artha-kaama. Whereas qabilah is the opposite: a 4-processor purshaartha core that includes dharma and moksha, except that its dharma is perverted - instead of serving the higher nature, it serves the lower.

अपरेयं इतस्तु अन्यं
प्रकृतिं विद्धि मे परां
जीव-भूतं महाबाहो
ययेदं धार्यते जगत् |

"Besides these, O mighty-armed Arjuna, there is another, superior energy of Mine, which comprises the living entities who are carrying (or employing) the resources of this material, inferior nature." [Bhagavad-gita 7.5]

The qabilah rides the constructs of materialistic civilization, whereas materialistic civilizations use qabilah-like constructs to achieve their limited aims. The qabilah cann and will out-survive the latter. The only real resolution of qabilah virus is another 4-core civilization that is correctly oriented.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 25 Feb 2012 04:35

Venezuelan strongman Hugo Chavez ,bete noire of Uncle Sam,afflicted with cancer,is flying to Cuba for emergency cancer surgery as his condition worsens and he says he is "preparing for the worst".

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/9103112 ... rgery.html

Chavez 'preparing for the worst' as he flies to Cuba for emergency cancer surgery
President Hugo Chavez is expected to leave Venezuela on Friday for emergency cancer surgery in Cuba saying he was 'preparing to face the worst'.

krisna · Post by **krisna** » 25 Feb 2012 07:16

South Asia’s False Spring

From the armed coup that recently ousted the Maldives’ first democratically elected president, Mohamed Nasheed, to the Pakistani Supreme Court’s current effort to undermine a toothless but elected government by indicting Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani on contempt charges, South Asia’s democratic advances appear to be shifting into reverse.

As a result of sputtering transitions elsewhere in South Asia, India is now the sole country in the region with a deeply-rooted pluralistic democracy. That is not in India’s interest, for it confronts the country with what might be called the “tyranny of geography” — that is, serious external threats from virtually all directions.

To some extent, it is a self-inflicted tyranny. India’s security concerns over Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and even Pakistan stem from the failures of its past policies. At the very least, the rollback of democracy in the region exposes India’s inability to influence political developments in its own backyard.

Today, political chaos and uncertainty in the region heighten the danger of spillover effects for India, threatening the country’s internal security. An increasingly unstable neighborhood also makes it more difficult to promote regional cooperation and integration, including free trade.

As its tyranny of geography puts greater pressure on its external and internal security, India will need to develop more innovative approaches to diplomacy and national defense. Only through more vigorous defense and foreign policies can India hope to ameliorate its regional-security situation, freeing it to play a larger global role. Otherwise, it will continue to be weighed down by its region.

India should be the boss of its own region- Indic sphere of influence should prevail at all costs.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 25 Feb 2012 08:26

Rony wrote:As External Affairs Minister, Mr Jaswant Singh once recounted a conversation with Mr Henry Kissinger, former United States Secretary of State. Pointing out India’s strategic precariousness, Mr Kissinger asked Mr Singh to name one country that would completely trust India and stand by it whatever the circumstances, and would be willing to go to war for it. “And don’t say Bhutan,” the American rounded off.

As Mr Singh described it, he kept quiet, feigning to ponder over the issue. Then he pretended to be hospitable and asked Mr Kissinger if he wanted tea, gently changing the subject.

Can we name one major nation that by and large behaves in a Dharmic way ... ?

There are no saints available but Putin's Russia is a reasonable candidate. We should definitely nurture the relationship with the Russians.

But then a country of India's size cannot and should not rely on any other country to go to war for it ... the only security lies in the ability to inflict horrific costs.

Arav · Post by **Arav** » 26 Feb 2012 07:22

PS: There is no seperate thread for India's relations with Central Asian stans, so posting it here...

Ukraine to liberalise visa regime for service travellers

The Ukraine government has decided to liberalise visa regime for service travellers from India.

Mr. Shevchenko, who was on a visit to the city on Friday, told reporters that bilateral trade between the two countries, grew ten-fold in the last few years to reach US $ 3 billion.

Ukraine already attracted over 10,000 students from India, including 2,000 from the State, who were pursuing higher education there.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 26 Feb 2012 07:32

The tragedy is that we had so much of goodwill during the Cold War thanks to being Non-Aligned,especially with nations who today have become economic powerhouses or energy rich state,llike Somalia-where Britain is already off the block trying to corner future oil rights (details in UK thread).This goodwill has been lost thanks to a myopic and somnolent MEA which ignored our old ties to former Warsaw pact states in eastern Europe as well as the emerging democracies and independent states in Africa,Asia and in the Americas.catching up with the massive Chinese diplomatic and aid onslaught is going to be extremely hard going from now on.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 28 Feb 2012 01:08

Scottish identity asserting itself:

NY times

Independence for Scotland?

...
The roots of this crisis lie far back in British history. After co-existing under the same monarch for a century, in 1707 a poverty-stricken, failing Scotland agreed to enter an “incorporating union” with England, in which Scotland gave up its independence in return for access to English markets and to the widening English empire overseas. But there was a fateful misunderstanding between two very different constitutional traditions. The English regarded the union as irreversible; the Scots, then and now, regarded it as a treaty that could be modified or even ended by mutual agreement.

Scotland prospered in the subsequent two centuries, from the profits of empire and then from the industrial revolution that those imperial profits and markets made possible. And yet the awareness of past independence never quite faded. The most basic political feeling among Scots, pro- or anti-union, is the memory of statehood. It’s an instinct, rather than a formed idea, that the nation still retains a “residual sovereignty” that cannot be taken away. The poet Robert Burns wrote that Scotland had been “bought and sold for English gold.”

But between the last Jacobite rising in 1745 and the end of World War II 200 years later, there was no serious political challenge to the union. It took the cumulative effect of the Depression, the decay of Scotland’s industries and the collapse of the British Empire in the mid-20th century to reignite and spread a sense that the bargain was no longer paying off.
....

When they had the Empire they could export the Scots abroad as traders and soldiers. So many Scottish regiments were sent restore order into the Empire.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 28 Feb 2012 01:20

INC is truly the Labour Party of India. It thinks like them in toto.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 28 Feb 2012 08:13

Obama's Secret Wars: FP Special Issue

Sea Change: Haunting family photos pulled from the wreckage of Japan's tsunami.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 28 Feb 2012 08:59

The Obama Doctrine

10 Things You Didn't Know About Drones

member_20617 · Post by **member_20617** » 28 Feb 2012 16:49

Rony wrote:
Vashishtha wrote:A very good article in the pioneer:
http://www.dailypioneer.com/columnists/ ... again.html
That article needs to be quoted in full.

A week ago, on Saturday, February 11, the Indian Express published a long report on Mr Nasheed’s relationship with India. The report was fairly detailed and obviously based on top-level briefings. One paragraph was astounding: “It’s learnt that Nasheed would regularly send lists of Maldivian students studying in India, who were suspected radicals. In fact, it was this effort which led to the discovery that many fundamentalist Maldivian groups were sending terror recruits in the garb of students to India, who would later smuggle themselves into Pakistan for training. He had also agreed to far-reaching defence arrangements with India after 26/11.”

Why would Maldivian students come to India and then smuggle themselves into Pakistan for training?

They can go to Pakistan directly, can't they?

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 01 Mar 2012 06:27

Taiwan issue is not just simply commie chinese vs kuomintang chinese but also about kuomintang chinese settlers vs indigenous Taiwanese who always resented the chinese settlers.

War crimes from 228 Massacre by Republic of China go unprosecuted in Taiwan

Sixty-five years ago the brutal beating of a female street vendor by the Republic of China’s monopoly tax agents triggered a spontaneous protest in Taipei the next day. On February 28, 1947, outraged islanders marched against the occupation ROC government only to be fired upon by the Chinese. The bloody response by the ROC led to an uprising against the occupation forces of Chiang Kai-shek.

The United States had imposed ROC troops on the people of Formosa, as Taiwan was commonly called, in October 1945 after the Japanese surrender in World War II. After installing Chiang’s soldiers the United States turned its attention to the growing Cold War threat of communism and left the island’s day-to-day administration to the forces of Chiang Kai-shek.

Following the shootings of demonstrators, the populace revolted and the Chinese Nationalist government officials fled to the hills. Chiang ordered Kuomintang troops, battle-weary from fighting in the Chinese civil war, to Formosa and the slaughter began at the docks as troop ships arrived across the Taiwan Strait.

The mass killings of island residents lasted for weeks while the United States did nothing to intervene. George Kerr, a U.S. Naval attaché turned diplomat, stationed in Taipei, was witness to the slaughter and repeatedly cabled Washington, D.C. with details of the carnage asking for assistance.

The 228 Massacre grew into a protracted White Terror period where executions and imprisonment became the ROC method of control. Forty years of harsh martial law kept political activity on lockdown status while Chiang Kai-shek’s regime became that of his son, Chiang Ching-kuo.

During the long decades of Chinese repression of the islanders it was even a crime to even mention the 228 Massacre in public. The event remains a defining moment in Taiwanese history and its anniversary sparks an annual discussion about the role of the Kuomintang in the killings and also about Taiwan’s continuing unresolved status that leaves a Chinese government in control of the Taiwanese people.

Ma Ying-jeou, President of the Republic of China in-exile, talks of “one China” and is pushing the island to a closer relationship with the communist People’s Republic of China. Ma is also the standard-bearer for the Kuomintang and the 228 anniversary is always uncomfortable for him. This year Ma has tried to downplay the number of deaths saying the actual number is unimportant in remarks made Friday.

Ma’s statement about the number of deaths has upset many including members of the Legislative Yuan who have made critical media comments.

The bitter irony of the 228 Massacre and Taiwan’s continuing unresolved status is that under the San Francisco Peace Treaty that ended World War II with Japan, the United States is the island’s “principal occupying Power”. In 2009, the District of Columbia U.S. Court of Appeals called on President Barack Obama to end Taiwan’s “strategic ambiguity” declaring the populace suffered in “political purgatory” imposed by the United States.

Self-determination for the people of Taiwan remains an unfulfilled promise and keeps the island from membership in the United Nations, out of security alliances, and even the World Health Organization.

President Obama has been quiet on Taiwan’s status for three years only breaking his silence to congratulate Ma Ying-jeou’s recent re-election in a White House reaffirmation of the strategic ambiguity that keeps Taiwan’s fate unresolved and the 228 Massacre war crimes unprosecuted.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 01 Mar 2012 09:16

Inside Power, Inc.: Taking stock of Big Business vs. Big Government.

What the Quran burnings tell us

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 02 Mar 2012 08:30

Lux in Arcana: Vatican Secret Archives latest
All the latest coverage from the Vatican Secret Archives, which will go on display on Wednesday, in an unprecedented exhibition.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... -live.html

Nick Squires.

Parchment documents relating to Galileo's heresy trial, the execution of Mary Queen of Scots and Henry VIII's divorce will go on display today in an unprecedented exhibition of 100 documents from the Vatican Secret Archive. The archives, jealously guarded by popes and cardinals for centuries and kept under lock and key, contain one of the world's richest collections of historical papers, spanning more than 1,000 years, from the 8th century until modern times. They reflect the Holy See's dealings with a who's who of famous historical figures, including Michelangelo, Voltaire, the Borgias, Mozart, Adolf Hitler and Abraham Lincoln, and are normally seen only by strictly vetted scholars. Few of the leather-bound documents, which are packed into more than 50 miles of shelves and protected in climate-controlled chambers, have ever left the walls of the city state. They have been specially brought together for an exhibition which will run until September in Rome's Capitoline Museums.

Arav · Post by **Arav** » 03 Mar 2012 06:55

Cold war in warm waters: U.S.-China's dangerous contest for Asia-Pacific

On two occasions in my life I found myself living close to the South China Sea. The sea became my escape from life’s pressing responsibilities. But there is no escaping the fact that the deceptively serene waters are now also grounds for a nascent but real new cold war.

China takes the name of the sea very seriously. Its claim over the relatively massive water body -- laden with oil, natural gas and other resources -- is perhaps ‘ill-defined’, per the account of the BBC (Nov 3, 2011), but it is also very serious. Countries such as Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei are uneasy but are caught in a bind. China’s growing regional influence -- to some, perhaps ‘encroaching hegemony’ -- is an uncontested fact of life. To challenge -- or balance -- the rising Chinese power, these countries face a most difficult choice: accepting China’s supremacy or embracing an intractable American return to the region. The latter option is particularly worrisome considering the U.S.’s poor military track record throughout the Asia-Pacific region.

Frankly, there is little choice in the matter for small, vulnerable countries. A conflict is already brewing, and China, emboldened by astonishing economic growth as well as military advancement, seems to be gearing up to challenge the U.S.’s uncontested military dominance in the region.

Despite efforts to slash the defense budget by $487 billion in the next ten years, the U.S. sees the Asia-Pacific region as its last major holdout outside NATO’s traditional geographic influence. In fact, last January the Defense Department had announced its plans to remove two of four U.S. combat brigades stationed in Europe. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta tried to assure U.S. NATO allies that the U.S. remained committed to Europe’s security, and that the move was merely part of a new strategy of ‘smart defense’. But the writing on the wall was crystal clear.

“If we look behind the slogan of smart defense, I would say that at least 20 years ago all these ideas were on the table,” according to Thomas Enders, CEO of Airbus. “So why is this time different? It could be austerity. But...the NATO members, particularly the Europeans will not spend more on defense for the foreseeable future, say 10 years” (Reuters, Feb 4).

Teetering at the brink of economic depression and bankruptcy, and forced into making unprecedented austerity decisions, the U.S. and its NATO allies have already crossed all sorts of uncharted territories. Panetta’s assurances will hardly erase the comments made by Defense Secretary Robert Gates last June foretelling a “dim, if not dismal future for the transatlantic alliance.” However, it is very telling that despite budget cuts and the downgrading of US military presence in Europe, the U.S. will be shifting its focus to the Asia-Pacific. This was the gist of President Obama’s announcement of new military strategy last month.

In his recent remarks before the Senate Armed Service Committee, Panetta said the U.S. planned to keep a rotational military presence in Australia and the Philippines. However, due to China’s growing economic might and direct sway over U.S.’s own economy, U.S. officials are less daring when explaining their renewed interests the region.

The fear of China’s dominance is at the center of U.S. foreign policy of the Asia-Pacific region. It is a fight that China cannot lose. For a declining empire like the U.S., the fight is also central to American strategy aimed at maintaining a level of global hegemony -- especially where the U.S. still claims few allies. On his last Asian tour last month, Panetta was emphatic that the U.S. return to Asia was not a temporary political maneuver. “I want to make very clear that the United States is going to remain a presence in the Pacific for a long time...If anything, we're going to strengthen our presence in the Pacific,” he said. This message had been asserted earlier, although in different contexts, by Secretary of State Hilary Clinton and President Obama himself.

A direct confrontation remains unlikely because of the economic interests shared by both China and the U.S. That said, the symbiotic relationship is now becoming increasingly imbalanced in favor of China. In his recent visit to the U.S., Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping told business leaders that the U.S. should not push China too far in the Asia-Pacific region. “We hope the U.S. will truly respect the interests and concerns of countries in the region, including China,” he said (USA Today, Feb 15). Compared to other visits by top Chinese leaders, Xi received less reprimand, an indication of a shift in U.S. diplomacy regarding China.

However, it’s worth noting that official U.S. statements regarding the Asia-Pacific region -- often made by departments of state, commerce and trade -- are becoming increasingly fused with statements made by military leaders, a sign of creeping danger.

The South China Sea is, in particular, a contentious issue. The U.S. is obviously interested in the resource-rich body for economic and strategic reasons. For China, it is additionally a matter of national pride. The Chinese message to Western and other companies is to stay away from areas that China sees as its territorial waters. “We hope foreign companies do not get involved in disputed waters for oil and gas exploration and development,” said a foreign ministry spokesman.

The race for supremacy over Asia is being renewed, this time with China more forceful than ever. The South China Sea is likely to emerge as major point of contention in coming years. Leaders of adjacent countries might find themselves being forced to choose sides in a foreseeable conflict over resources and military presence.

It was Deng Xiaoping who championed China’s economic reforms throughout the 1980s. Then China was seen too amiable -- if not disaster-prone -- to ever articulate and defend a clear foreign policy agenda. Those days are over, and the U.S. has taken serious note of that.

“There are challenges facing the Asia-Pacific right now that demand America's leadership (and the 21st century will be) America's Pacific century,” declared Hilary Clinton prior to the APEC summit in Hawaii last November (Xinhua, Nov 19).

Understandably, her comments raised the alarm throughout Chinese media that a cold war is officially underway. While the giants are now contending in the open, smaller and less influential countries in the region are being exposed to all sorts of bleak possibilities.

Arav · Post by **Arav** » 03 Mar 2012 07:20

Visions of violence in defense of the dollar

“In contrast to the murderous vision of violent extremists, we are joining with allies and partners around the world to build their capacity to promote security, prosperity, and human dignity,” wrote U.S. President Barack Obama in a document entitled “Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership”.

While not identifying the “violent extremists” referred to by President Obama, the report details the United States’ own vision of violent extremism being directed against Iran. Diminishing hopes for peace in the Middle East, the war department report makes it crystal clear that U.S. policy in the Persian Gulf has two objectives: first, denying Iran’s right to develop peaceful nuclear technology, and second, providing unflinching support for the Zionist regime’s paranoid pursuit of security.

According to the report, “U.S. policy will emphasize [Persian] Gulf security, in collaboration with [Persian] Gulf Cooperation Council countries when appropriate, to prevent Iran’s development of a nuclear weapon capability and counter its destabilizing policies. The United States will do this while standing up for Israel’s security and a comprehensive Middle East peace.”

Under the claim of standing up for the “security” of the Zionist regime, the U.S. has employed its own “murderous vision” here: a build-up to a war with Iran that appears to be a carbon copy of the scenario used in the march to war with Iraq in 2003. A U.S. Congressional Research Service report on the Iraq war captures the essence of the plot: “After 16 weeks, inspectors turned up some evidence of undeclared activities, but not enough to convince a majority of the Security Council members that military force was necessary. Nonetheless, on March 19, 2003, U.S. and British forces attacked Iraq to forcibly eliminate its WMD.”

The pretext for the Anglo-American invasion was based on unresolved issues outstanding since 1998, which according to UN Monitoring, Verification, and Inspection Commission Chief Hans Blix, neither verified nor excluded the possibility that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction. Iraq had even agreed to overflights by U.S. U-2 spy planes, about which then president George W. Bush alleged that Iraq was merely stalling for time. Of course, no WMDs were ever found in Iraq.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has reiterated Iran’s willingness to resume negotiations with the Western powers and has even allowed a team of International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors to return to Iran. These inspectors may find some ambiguous, inconsequential shred of evidence, the significance of which may then be magnified to gargantuan proportions by the Western media, and held up as proof positive of the “smoking gun” confirming the existence of an Iranian nuclear weapons program. The inspectors will exit Iran and present their findings; there will be an exchange of charges and denials; ultimatums will ensue; and then Israel may make a provocative move. In an understandable and justifiable response, Iran may close the Strait of Hormuz, causing an anticipated 50% rise in crude oil prices, resulting in widespread economic havoc. Also, March 20, 2012, which is Noruz, the Iranian New Year, is the target date for the Iranian oil bourse to begin trading crude oil in currencies other than the U.S. dollar.

The dispute over Iran's nuclear program is nothing more than a convenient excuse for the U.S. to use threats to protect the “reserve currency” status of the dollar. Recall that Saddam announced Iraq would no longer accept dollars for oil purchases in November 2000 and the U.S.-Anglo invasion occurred in March 2003. Similarly, Iran opened its oil bourse in 2008, so it is a credit to Iranian negotiating ability that the “crisis” has not come to a head long before now.

Europe is on the brink economic chaos due to the prudent monetary policies of the European Central Bank, which has refused to print money to buy government debt, quite unlike the U.S. Federal Reserve. Having been lured by cheap 1% bailout loans from the Fed to prevent government defaults, Europe caved in to the Zionist-inspired U.S. pressure and agreed to shoot itself in the financial foot by imposing oil sanctions on Iran, thus guaranteeing a European double-dip recession. For the U.S., however, these financial events help ensure that the euro will not pose the threat it once did to the dollar’s hegemony over oil transactions.

In contrast, India has declared it will buy Iranian crude in gold and China is expected to follow suit. Both nations have robust economies and nuclear weapons as well, so the U.S. will probably not do anything beyond sending trade missions headed by U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner to both countries to beg for currency devaluation and jobs. China is especially significant, since it holds a plethora of dollars as a result of perpetual U.S. trade deficits. What this suggests is that China may now be preparing to dump its dollar holdings, absorb its losses, and allow the renminbi to float on world currency markets.

One of the few growth sectors in the U.S. is the arms industry, and this is partially fueled by the over 3 billion dollars the U.S. sends to Israel as foreign military aid, almost 75% of which returns to U.S. arms manufacturers (Lockheed Martin, Boeing, General Dynamics, Northrop Grumman, and Raytheon to name a few) as weapons purchases. With facilities throughout the U.S., the arms industry can pressure senators and representatives into opposing defense budget cuts by threatening plant closures in their respective districts at election time. This partially explains why both Democrats and Republicans are hawks and usually support every war.

Remember also, since the end of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, the U.S. dollar “floats” on world currency markets and is not backed by gold. This occurred because the U.S. was running out of gold reserves trying to finance its obscene war in Vietnam. Supported in part by the mammoth Greenspan-created credit bubble until it burst in 2007, the once-almighty dollar is now backed by the power of the U.S. military, which enforces its acceptance in world markets and will continue to do so as long as the United States is the sole remaining superpower.

Unless the U.S. is willing to concede defeat to the Asian economic powers, led by China and India, it has no other option except to use military force to postpone the inevitable demise of the dollar. This means it must either choose to support Israel’s paranoia about Iran, or watch the dollar and its global empire ride off into the sunset.

Arav · Post by **Arav** » 03 Mar 2012 08:38

A turbulent spring

Egypt will have its newly elected president on June 21. Egyptians are expected to experience a very turbulent spring in the lead up. Much like the weather, the political scene is confused and unstable.

If the performance of the much-awaited Parliament is any indication, the presidency should not be expected to be any better. The continuous reduction of democracy and democratic practice to the ballots in the boxes to institute the powers of governance undermines the basic foundations of a just and lawful rule by delegation.

Much to the frustration of the voters, the daily televised Parliament sessions portray an almost complete loss for attending to the more substantial current issues and an apparent lack of ability to debate, a seemingly lack of will to exercise its powers of regulating or to take prompt decisive actions to respond to the demands of the revolution. The disappointment has already had its effect on the elections of the “Shura” council that has gone almost unnoticed. With all eyes fixed on the expanding list of potential candidates, another more substantial pillar for real democratic rule with more lasting impact on Egypt will hopefully not go unnoticed. In the next 10 days alone, three days of impact on this spring process should be keenly observed. Saturday will mark the first meeting of both legislative houses to kick start the production of Egypt’s new constitution.

Since March 2011, the much-contested path to democracy has been struggling with the issue of the supremacy of the constitution over the legislative or the executive. One whole year later and much blood, anger, frustration and political fighting in between, the issue has been recalled.

Obviously there is a Parliament in place, and according to the temporary constitutional decree, they are entrusted with the chore of selecting a committee of 100 Egyptians who will attend to the creating of the constitution. Regardless of which president or even what Parliament, it is the constitution that should institute the set values of ruling the nation. As the dusty winds of Khamasin rise over Egypt, so does the cloudiness of a year-long political power struggle near its moment of truth. This is a critical moment for the revolution and for the future of Egypt and Egyptians. A constitution that falls short of the demands of the revolution for freedom, dignity and justice for all Egyptians will be contested severely.

March 9, a day before the candidacy for the office of president of Egypt begins, is a Friday and the people power is being mobilized to safeguard an acceptable process and in some minds to recreate the revolution if need be. On the other hand, major initiatives for collaboration and alternative political forms are heavily underway. This spring will certainly be turbulent.

As opposed to the released schedules for the election of the president, the schedule of delivering a constitution for a referendum by the people of Egypt is yet to become known. Much will depend on when Egyptians will have their approved constitution.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 03 Mar 2012 08:38

x-post from India-Russia thread:

Arun Roperia wrote:A nice opinion piece (slightly pessimistic though) on India-Russia relations in light of a rising China, return of Putin and India's growing proximity to the US.

The cold wind from Russia

worth posting this excerpt -

“India's stand on Syria came as a surprise to the Kremlin,” says Prof. Andrei Volodin of the Russian Foreign Ministry's Diplomatic Academy. He thinks it is shortsighted on the part of India to cast its lot with the U.S., whose global power is declining, and with conservative Gulf monarchies, which are historically doomed. But he admits that India's Syria stand falls into a trend.

“Some upper echelons in the Ministry of External Affairs, alarmed by China's fast rise and backed by the U.S. Indian community and a corporate lobby, are trying to impose a foreign policy course on the country's leadership that goes against India's long-term interests,” the Russian scholar who closely follows India's political scene told The Hindu. Prof. Volodin sees this trend as part of an ongoing struggle in the Indian elite between advocates and opponents of the foreign policy tradition of Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi, a struggle aggravated by a general decline in the level of strategic thinking in the Indian foreign policy establishment.
...
Five years ago, Mr. Putin, then President, placed India along with Russia and China in an exclusive club of world powers that “can afford the luxury of genuine sovereignty”. As he prepares to reclaim presidency, Mr. Putin has again invoked the issue of sovereignty in foreign policy.

“Everything we do will be based on our own interests and goals, not on decisions other countries impose on us … Russia has practically always had the privilege of pursuing an independent foreign policy and this is how it will be in the future,” Mr. Putin wrote in his election manifesto.

“Syria has put to the test the ability of countries to take sovereign decisions,” says Prof. Volodin. “Russia and China have passed the test; India, unfortunately, has not.”

It is true that the west is in decline, at least relatively. Possibly there is an emerging anti-west grouping including China, Pakistan, Russia, Iran, Iraq, Syria, perhaps Egypt. Out of these, China and Pakistan are traditionally hostile.

And it's true that Indian policies have the appearance of being inconsistent. India is getting criticized by the Russians and the Americans (e.g. Nicholas Burns recently) at the same time. And perhaps some of the criticism is justified. Indian explanations for its stand on Syria have been unconvincing.

But I would say that Indian interest lies in being friendly with the declining west (albeit strictly on our own terms, which could very possibly be favorable because of this decline). At the same time, being friendly with key members of the emerging anti-west grouping (particularly Russia and Iran), to ensure that it never becomes an anti-India grouping.

On issues like Syria perhaps the best policy would be to say nothing and keep a low profile, rather than making lame excuses. Iran too has not been optimally handled. The policy of continuing the trade, but at a somewhat reduced volume, is basically correct. But there is no need to make highly visible statements in the media about huge trade delegations.

Arav · Post by **Arav** » 03 Mar 2012 10:52

Turkey starts nuclear talks with China

Ankara and Beijing will start talks on a planned Turkish nuclear power plant soon, says Deputy PM Ali Babacan. The two countries may also develop stronger banking ties, he says during Chinese Vice President Xi’s visit to Istanbul , noting that Turkey’s doors were wide open for Chinese banks.

Turkey and China will soon start talks for building the third nuclear power plant in the northwestern region of the country, said Turkey’s vice deputy prime minister in Istanbul yesterday at a meeting with the vice president of China, noting that Turkey’s doors were wide open for Chinese banks.

“We will start the talks with Chinese authorities and officials regarding nuclear energy,” said Ali Babacan responding to the questions of journalists after the Turkish-Chinese Business Forum attended by Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping.

Noting that Turkey has a target of having a total of three nuclear power plants by 2023, “The talks would focus on building the country’s third plant” in İğneada, a small town in the northern province of Kırklareli, said the minister.

“Whether talks with Chinese authorities would be for the third or the second power plant depends on the developments of our talks with Japan,” said Babacan, adding the country had recently restarted negotiations with South Korea as well.

“Our doors are wide open for Chinese banks as long as the Chinese banks would fully comply with the criteria of the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency [BRSA],” said Babacan in response to a Hürriyet Daily News question, noting that authorities in both countries were working on licensing the applications.

The Bank of China had already opened an Istanbul office, Babacan said. “It would be beneficial to open a Turkish bank in China, [state-owned] Ziraat Bank or any other bank to operate in China.”
BRSA officials will start talks with Chinese authorities regarding the issue, he added.

$1.4 billion worth of deals

“Turkish and Chinese companies signed 29 business and trade deals worth $1.4 billion,” said Xi at the forum organized by the Turkish Exporters’ Assembly (TİM).

“Turkey has become an attractive dynamic of its region, playing an active role in regional issues,” said Xi, addressing Chinese and Turkish businessmen. There has been a remarkable increase in trade volume between the two counties, Xi added.

In the last 10 years Chinese firms signed construction deals exceeding $10 billion in Turkey, he said, adding that Turkey and China should be working toward strengthening “strategic cooperation.”

China Machinery Engineering Corporation and Yıldırım Energy signed a deal worth $2.8 billion for building 200 megawatt thermal plants in the southeastern province of Elazığ.

The Export Import Bank of China signed an agreement to provide $70 million for Global Investment’s $100 million project to build four bulk carriers with a capacity of 35,000 deadweight tonnage (DWT) with Avic Weihai Shipyard. China Development Bank Cooperation granted $5 billion for Türk Telekom’s network expansion project.

‘One-sided love’

“Trade relations with China are very important for us, but this seems to be a one-sided love,” said Turkish Economy Minister Zafer Çağlayan at the meeting, noting the increasing trade deficit that Turkey posts.

Turkey and China aim to reach a total of $50 billion bilateral trade volume by 2015 and $50 billion by 2020.

Turkey’s exports to China rose to $2.46 billion last year from $2.26 billion, while imports from China jumped to $21.7 billion last year from $17.1 billion.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 06 Mar 2012 05:21

Three interesting facts from George Kennan's biography:

1. Poland is safe only when both Russia and Germany are weak. (Russians did not help Poles even when both Poland and Russia were against Germans.)

2. Lower middle class Germans were supporting Hitler whereas Prussian elites were against Hitler.

3. Russians move from one extreme to another periodically. They can change from extremely good to extremely bad in a short interval of time.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 06 Mar 2012 08:33

The Petrostates of America: Yes, the U.S. economy is addicted to oil -- selling it.

The Return of the King: Why Europe needs another Napoleon.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 06 Mar 2012 11:13

deleted.....

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 07 Mar 2012 00:23

abhishek_sharma wrote:Three interesting facts from George Kennan's biography:

1. Poland is safe only when both Russia and Germany are weak. (Russians did not help Poles even when both Poland and Russia were against Germans.)

2. Lower middle class Germans were supporting Hitler whereas Prussian elites were against Hitler.

3. Russians move from one extreme to another periodically. They can change from extremely good to extremely bad in a short interval of time.

Even Churchill betrayed the Poles. So they are better off when all of rest of Eurasia are weak.

Not only lower middle class, but also working class and middle class and very influential elite sections supported him. His prime elite support came from banking and industrial sections. Only a very small section of Hindenburghist right opposed Hitler for a time. But their opposition was based more on "class origins" perceptions - rather than ideological.

Russians share with Germans and Indians a certain capacity of introspection and self-criticsm. This critical underlying trend comes out periodically against institutional authoritarianism - to counter which the other section devises new authoritarianisms to unify the two dissenting factions.

Thus we have periodic dissent against central authorities - and a new authoritarianism to counter the dissent.

Germans are probably two step further down the migration lane and Russians one step from Indian homeland. So we have the greatest and oldest diversities of feuding ideologies - with cumulative traces of periodic rebellion, dissent and new integrative or unifying ideologies - in India. In Russia, this took the form of the Cossak/southerners versus Vikings and the pagan versus revealed traditions, to Tsar versus orthodox civil war, to Boyar versus Tsar to "modernizers/antimonarhists" versus Tsar to modernizers versus Bolsheviks to Bolsheviks versus Stalinists, to Stalinists versus anti-Stalinists all the way through back to Tsar Putin again. Germans started off the same route against Romans in the Teuteborg forests, to fighting charlemagne against Christianity, to Arrianism versus catholicism, to holy Roman empire versus Pope, to Martin Luther versus Catholics to Marx and Bismarck all the way through to Spartakists and Hinenburghists versus Hitler. Even afterwards they continued in the same trends.

Maybe its the core Indo-European trend.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 07 Mar 2012 00:27

Papen, Scleicher, Hindenburgh jnr - all helped Hitler - one way or the other. Hitler did have his support among the Prussian elite.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 07 Mar 2012 01:09

I should have written Prussian nobility instead of Prussian elites

A second source of optimism came from souls of a different sort: those of Germans opposed to Hitler. Kirk, the retiring chargé d’affaires, had been meeting quietly with Count Helmuth von Moltke, one of several Prussian aristocrats who had always viewed the Nazis with disapproval and now were convinced that Hitler was leading Germany into disaster. After Kirk’s departure, Kennan took over this contact, although because he feared leaks, he never reported his conversations to Washington. Another acquaintance with similar views was Gottfried von Bismarck, grandson of the Iron Chancellor, whom Kennan remembered refusing to rise at the opera when Nazi officials came in. Still another was Johnnie von Herwarth, who had leaked the information to Bohlen about the Nazi-Soviet Pact. These connections, however, involved only listening: Roosevelt was not about to authorize negotiations with the conservative German opposition. The conversations did, though, provide evidence of yet more friction within the Nazi machine: the fact that Hitler drew his support from the lower middle class and the nouveau riche, while the old Prussian nobility opposed him.44

About Russians

Understanding the Soviet Union, Kennan insisted, would require living with contradictions. Russians were used to “extreme cold and extreme heat, prolonged sloth and sudden feats of energy, exaggerated cruelty and exaggerated kindness, ostentatious wealth and dismal squalor, violent xenophobia and uncontrollable yearning for contact with the foreign world, vast power and the most abject slavery, simultaneous love and hate for the same objects.” Their life, hence, was not one of harmonious, integrated elements but an ever-shifting equilibrium between conflicting forces. No proposition about the U.S.S.R. could make sense “without seeking, and placing in apposition, its opposite.” It would also be necessary to realize that for the Soviet regime there were no objective criteria of right and wrong, or even of reality and unreality. Bolshevism had shown the possibility of making people “feel and believe practically anything.” Even an outsider, thrust into such a system, could easily become “the tool, rather than the master, of the material he is seeking to understand.”

Agnimitra · Post by **Agnimitra** » 07 Mar 2012 01:10

The India-Iran tunnel

The tough talk against Iran heard in Washington, Brussels and Tel Aviv is not being echoed east of Chabahar, the Iranian port in whose future India is heavily involved. In Beijing, Islamabad, Kabul - and New Delhi - the discussions are about percentages and payments rather than strategic strikes and sabotage. ....

I don't understand what the goals are for us in all this:

1. We are signalling that we are not behind any pro-Baluchistan movement.
2. We are making ourselves more dependent on Iran.
3. Afghanistan supposedly closed down a camp training Baluch freedom fighters, too.
4. It all makes TSP and China happy.

How does India really benefit from this regional Asian bhai-bhai against Western designs in the region?

JohnTitor · Post by **JohnTitor** » 07 Mar 2012 03:39

Carl wrote:I don't understand what the goals are for us in all this:

1. We are signalling that we are not behind any pro-Baluchistan movement.
2. We are making ourselves more dependent on Iran.
3. Afghanistan supposedly closed down a camp training Baluch freedom fighters, too.
4. It all makes TSP and China happy.

How does India really benefit from this regional Asian bhai-bhai against Western designs in the region?

1 might just be a PR statement, since any support would be behind the scenes and clandestine. Though we can't verify this either way.

3 might be true, but this is more of appeasement rather than anything else. After all, Karzai wants to ensure once the Americans leave, the paks don't run him over.

Arav · Post by **Arav** » 07 Mar 2012 05:39

America: On the wrong side of the world revolution

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 07 Mar 2012 07:48

The myth of Chinese exceptionalism

'Soldiering On in a Dying War': How bad was US Army late in the Vietnam War?

Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan: Comparing memoirs of small unit ground combat

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 07 Mar 2012 08:34

Tony Judt: A Final Victory

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 07 Mar 2012 10:11

Some people believe that George Kennan's "long telegram" was the finest piece of analytical writing from U.S. Foreign Service (until 1946).