I, me and Myself
I, me, myself
It's no surprise that Manmohan Singh's latest Pakistan initiative is a crashing failure, says N.V.Subramanian.
6 April 2011: Where A.B.Vajpayee failed to win peace with Pakistan, it is improbable that Manmohan Singh will succeed. The analysis is as follows:
Before the BJP came to power, there was the notion that it alone could clamp down a peace with Pakistan. Regardless of how many people in India believed this, it was certainly a popular feeling in Pakistan.
The reasoning for this was simple -- and perhaps simplistic. With its hard-line on politics, including foreign relations, and with its links to the conservative RSS, the BJP was a match for the radicals in the Pakistan army and ISI.
Any solution that came in a BJP regime backed by a radical establishment on the Pakistan side would be acceptable to both countries. But what was the peace settlement to be? The details were fuzzy.
Did the BJP actually have a position on the core dispute of Jammu and Kashmir? It did have a formal view, reflecting the Indian Parliament resolution, that Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) had to be given up to India.
But this was the maximum position. By itself, Pakistan would never give up PoK. And India would not launch a war to regain it, because that would certainly ratchet up to a nuclear exchange.
The BJP had a minimum position, which is not very unlike the Congress line, or indeed the general Indian thinking. This is to convert the present LoC into a permanent border, and sort out other issues such as Siachen, etc, gradually.
Many years ago, this writer interviewed several BJP politicians, and they all hewed to the minimum position, although with requests to play it down.
As politics of the late-Nineties played out, the BJP formed a NDA coalition government, with Vajpayee as PM. Vajpayee brought his image of a friendly first Janata government foreign minister to his new assignment.
This allowed him to engage the other South Asian governments more easily than a Congress government could, because it still had to live down its Big Brother disposition towards them.
While much is made of the Vajpayee-Nawaz Sharief bonhomie, it is actually his engagement of Parvez Musharraf that is more interesting -- and illustrative.
Here was the architect of the Kargil War who lost it but nevertheless became a minor hero in his own country. He also had to face the full might of the Indian military machine menacing Pakistan on the border after the 13 December Parliament terrorist attack.
But Musharraf was a hard nut to crack. He did not reciprocate the intensity of Vajpayee's feelings for rapprochement until the two terrorist attacks on him. Even then, he confessed the limitations of his power.
He made it clear first during the Agra summit and repeatedly thereafter that without a consensus in Pakistan's military establishment, peace steps with India were hard to take.
The most he could deliver was a ceasefire on the LoC, and by and large, and for a variety of reasons, it has held. But beyond that, Vajpayee procured little on his Pak peace project, which was part of his political vision for India.
Indeed, Vajpayee held out the dangers to Pakistan for being antagonistic towards India. He said in the context of Fazlur Rehman's visit in July 2003 that if India and Pakistan did not make peace, a third country would intervene.
Vajpayee was clearly alluding to the US post its intervention in Iraq. That same theme has been repeated by the Pakistan PM after his Mohali meeting with Manmohan Singh.
And yet, Manmohan Singh can never bring to successful closure Vajpayee's Pak peace project. There are several reasons for this.
The most important is that complete peace with Pakistan, which fundamentally means resolution of the J and K issue to both countries' satisfaction, can never materialize till the Islamist Pakistan army/ ISI reign supreme.
If Musharraf as part of this Islamist military establishment could not/ did not deliver to Vajpayee, how can Pakistan's current democratic figureheads make a grand presentation of peace to Manmohan Singh?
Immutable from Pakistan's perspective is its hate-India ideology, its compulsive need to avenge Bangladesh, and its determination to Balkanize this country, all of which are well-known and been frequently addressed in this magazine.
The other reason for Manmohan Singh's expected failure on Pakistan is that he approaches that country from a position of weakness. If India after the Kargil victory and Operation Parakram could not entirely convince Pakistan about peace, how can Manmohan bring a change of heart with zilch leverage?
And unlike Vajpayee who had the nation rallying behind him, Manmohan Singh as an isolated and unelected PM brings no traction to the Pak peace process.
To be sure, Vajpayee had his cabinet detractors against the peace project. Importantly, he understood their concerns, and consequently made limited peace offers to Pakistan. Manmohan Singh faces cabinet opposition to peace-making with Pakistan of a different order.
There is fundamental disagreement to his approach. Key ministers are not at all convinced that the time is opportune to negotiate peace with Pakistan. They intuitively realize that a project that failed with Vajpayee (with all his strengths) cannot succeed with Manmohan (burdened with infirmities).
But the most important reason for Manmohan Singh's failure on Pakistan is likely to emanate from his intentions. Having failed as PM on all fronts, he is desperate for success on Pakistan.
It was a most cynically-motivated decision to embed the Mohali summit in the match between India and Pakistan. Till two days ago, PMO officials were crowing about it to journalists over expensive coffee paid by you and me.
They were sure that India's World Cup victory and the alleged "Mohali spirit" would shore up Manmohan Singh's image. It was all about image-making.
Well, first Shahid Afridi crashed the PM's high spirits.
And now, the stink of corruption, which Manmohan Singh felt was wafted away by the World Cup, has returned to torment him again.
Nemesis has taken the form of Anna Hazare.
Manmohan Singh often says he honestly wants peace with Pakistan. No Indian PM can say and mean otherwise. But he sees peace with Pakistan as a political tactic to consolidate his disastrous prime-ministership.
That way, he surely drowns any prospect of peace with Pakistan.