Telangana Monitor

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 14 Mar 2012 00:25

Narayana Rao wrote:Election time in AP. Seems Jagan is spending like anything in Kovur (100 Cr as per one allegation of TDP - Seems to be too much) and TRS regularly targeting CBN and TDP as per the plan of INC. We need to see how this drama is unfold and how people will vote.

TRS and its members sell themselves to INC for MLC and RS whenever INC comes short. Next time INC needs a few more MLAs for RS I believe so they will let TRS win instead of TDP in those time and money-wasting by-elections.

TDP looks to be close to winning Kovur. INC might sabotage that winning by letting cross voting I think.

Tactic seems to be try to win, otherwise let it friendlies such as TRS and YSRC to win. If TDP wins 1-2 it is a great win for it to set stage for 2014.

Jay · Post by **Jay** » 14 Mar 2012 00:52

devesh wrote:http://www.jstor.org.libdb.njit.edu:888 ... owFullText

Caste and the Andhra Communists

a very interesting article on JSTOR. it talks about the early Communist movement and the relative success of Andhra Communists in the 1940's and '50s. also, some details on the various combinations of political groups and how the Communists were adept in exploiting these differences in the Congress, to come to power.

Link is directing to login page. Do you have access to the article?

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 14 Mar 2012 01:02

I apologize! I forgot that JSTOR needs login. I didn't post the article itself, because it's huge. 25 pages.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 16 Mar 2012 09:10

KCR seems to be over confident about the division of votes between TRS and BJP. In a 3 way contest we can never be certian. Kovur seat is going to be TDP - I know Somi Reddy Chandra Mohan Reddy and he is quite a strong candidate and seen regularly on TV. He is also earlier Minister in TDP governament. Present Jagan candidate N. Prasanna Kumar reddys father Late Nallapa Reddy Srinivasulu Reddy was earlier MLA from Kovur and did some development works there and people remember his works and he is considered always in goor terms. Prasanna Kumar Reddy was earlier close to Lakshmi Parvathi and for that reason is in bad books of CBN and has no future with TDP. This may be the reason for him to Jump to Jagan party. But he lost what every good name his father earned and both he and TDP candidates are non local candidates. Communist have a good network and good no of votes in Kovur and this may help TDP. Congress will be a poor 3rd. My estemate is TDP may win in a hard fight with CPM support and Congress taking part of Jagan votes and remaining 3rd. In all good for the state.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 18 Mar 2012 09:29

The ummah suddenly wants to re establish its "age old links" with Hyderabad ! First the Iranians, now the Turks !

Turkey to open consulate in Hyderabad

In a bid to strengthen its centuries old ties with Hyderabad, Turkey plans to not only set up a consulate or appoint an honorary consul in Hyderabad but is also seeking direct air connectivity between Hyderabad and Istanbul, Turkish ambassador Dr Burak Akcapar said on
Saturday.

To increase Turkish presence in Hyderabad we have sought permission for a consulate and till such time we plan to have an honorary consul," the Turkish envoy told newspersons on the sidelines of a meeting with city-based industry bigwigs. Turkey has also sought direct connectivity with Chennai, Amritsar, Bangalore and Kolkata. But, he said that Hyderabad was an "absolute priority" thanks to age-old links with the Nizams.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 18 Mar 2012 17:47

Narayana Rao wrote:KCR seems to be over confident about the division of votes between TRS and BJP. In a 3 way contest we can never be certian. Kovur seat is going to be TDP - I know Somi Reddy Chandra Mohan Reddy and he is quite a strong candidate and seen regularly on TV. He is also earlier Minister in TDP governament. Present Jagan candidate N. Prasanna Kumar reddys father Late Nallapa Reddy Srinivasulu Reddy was earlier MLA from Kovur and did some development works there and people remember his works and he is considered always in goor terms. Prasanna Kumar Reddy was earlier close to Lakshmi Parvathi and for that reason is in bad books of CBN and has no future with TDP. This may be the reason for him to Jump to Jagan party. But he lost what every good name his father earned and both he and TDP candidates are non local candidates. Communist have a good network and good no of votes in Kovur and this may help TDP. Congress will be a poor 3rd. My estemate is TDP may win in a hard fight with CPM support and Congress taking part of Jagan votes and remaining 3rd. In all good for the state.

I don't know why you are so confident. Almost everyone is saying that YSR-Congress winning Kovur is surety. The bets are about the margin. If TDP pulls it off then the political scenario of AP will have interesting changes.

member_22286 · Post by **member_22286** » 18 Mar 2012 17:55

Muppalla wrote:
Narayana Rao wrote:KCR seems to be over confident about the division of votes between TRS and BJP. In a 3 way contest we can never be certian. Kovur seat is going to be TDP - I know Somi Reddy Chandra Mohan Reddy and he is quite a strong candidate and seen regularly on TV. He is also earlier Minister in TDP governament. Present Jagan candidate N. Prasanna Kumar reddys father Late Nallapa Reddy Srinivasulu Reddy was earlier MLA from Kovur and did some development works there and people remember his works and he is considered always in goor terms. Prasanna Kumar Reddy was earlier close to Lakshmi Parvathi and for that reason is in bad books of CBN and has no future with TDP. This may be the reason for him to Jump to Jagan party. But he lost what every good name his father earned and both he and TDP candidates are non local candidates. Communist have a good network and good no of votes in Kovur and this may help TDP. Congress will be a poor 3rd. My estemate is TDP may win in a hard fight with CPM support and Congress taking part of Jagan votes and remaining 3rd. In all good for the state.
I don't know why you are so confident. Almost everyone is saying that YSR-Congress winning Kovur is surety. The bets are about the margin. If TDP pulls it off then the political scenario of AP will have interesting changes.

Jagan is winning Kovur

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 18 Mar 2012 18:51

Jamaat-e-Islami Hind on Telangana. The reasons given why the Jamaat is supporting Telangana is quite interesting and reveals a lot about the Islamist mind.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NrS3OO7iiqo

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 18 Mar 2012 22:02

the data points about Hyd keep adding up. US embassy, Sufi Center, US "scholars" praising pas "composite culture" under Nizam, and now Turkish Embassy. what is this about the Iranian Embassy? I missed that one! is Iran opening a consulate in Hyd too?

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 18 Mar 2012 23:09

Ashok Gottipati wrote:Jagan is winning Kovur

Absolutely. There is not a single seat in this round that TDP can pull off. If TDP gets near to the borderline they will declare themselves as something like back in the game.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 19 Mar 2012 01:01

Rumor mill is that Congress Bureau of Investigation is after most Jagan supporters.

If they can last till 2014 YSJ hopes to deliver a Panipat for INC in Andhra Pradesh.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 19 Mar 2012 01:26

http://www.gulte.com/news/5530/Big-Sund ... ontestants

Opinion polls are predicting a clean sweep for TRS party in all the six constituencies of T-region and TDP will score a point in Andhra region, Kovur. However, 'opinions' are not working in reality these days and the best example is recent Uttar Pradesh election.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 19 Mar 2012 03:17

vijayk wrote:http://www.gulte.com/news/5530/Big-Sund ... ontestants

Opinion polls are predicting a clean sweep for TRS party in all the six constituencies of T-region and TDP will score a point in Andhra region, Kovur. However, 'opinions' are not working in reality these days and the best example is recent Uttar Pradesh election.

Even if TDP wins just one or lose all but three of them has margins of loss in the range of less than 4K, TDP is back. Otherwise it is going to be a Jagan Rajya.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 19 Mar 2012 03:43

if Jagan comes to power, his EJ attitude will receive a huge boost. he might openly go on "conversion tours" to increase his flock. TDP, that bastion of non-INC "secularism" will get a taste of Christian "love" and "secularism". it is always the TDP types, the oh so "secular Hindus", staunchly non-INC, who are aghast at the thought of "Hindutva" and "BJP type communalism".

these non-INC Hindu "seculars" will have interesting times ahead.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 19 Mar 2012 04:27

Devesh garu, Iran already has a Consulate in Hyderabad.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 19 Mar 2012 05:18

^^^
I was responding to someone's post where they said Iran consulate too, as if it's a new development. either way, I hadn't known that Iran had a consulate in Hyd! they, i'm sure, like to imagine themselves as "past sovereigns" in the Deccan.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 19 Mar 2012 08:32

Muppalla wrote:Even if TDP wins just one or lose all but three of them has margins of loss in the range of less than 4K, TDP is back. Otherwise it is going to be a Jagan Rajya.

These by-elections are drama elections. Congress speaker accepts resignations of a few MLAs that results in by-elections, then drama starts. Soon after these by-elections dates were announced, speaker accepted more resignations of Congress rebels. You'll have another by-elections in a few months. Look like this will go on till 2014.

In Telangana the current crop resigned for T-reason, so they have more chance of winning anyway. All TDP has to do is to get more than deposits. Congress is also in the same position. Thing to watch is how much T is with BJP which fielded in one seat against TRS.

Only place TDP can hope to win is in Kovvur which is not T related. Kovvur is heated contest because TDP fielded strong candidate, Somireddy. He has been bitter critic of YSR&co. Winning over him is challenge to Jagan also and Jagan spent like anything to win there. It is more prestige for Jagan than the candidate, Nallapareddy, there.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 19 Mar 2012 10:01

From what I hear people in T land also fed up repeated TRS agitations and elections. To think that congress and TDP will be wipped up or fail to give good fight to TRS condidates is a mistake. In Kovur Somireddy a non local person but a district level leader and ex minister from costal area of Indukurpet can not be so easily defeated. In fact Jagan Candidate Nallapareddy is also non local though his father was MLA from Kovur while he was alive and a well liked person. Nallapareddy lost his name long back and I am surprised he could win in 2009. Jagan corrupt things are well known to educated people of AP and Kovur is a well developed area with good education levels. So I feel it may not be so easy for the TRS and Jagan. In any even Jagan fate will be decided in Kovur and TRS in the 6 seats from Telangana.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 19 Mar 2012 10:08

Muppalla wrote:
Narayana Rao wrote:KCR seems to be over confident about the division of votes between TRS and BJP. In a 3 way contest we can never be certian. Kovur seat is going to be TDP - I know Somi Reddy Chandra Mohan Reddy and he is quite a strong candidate and seen regularly on TV. He is also earlier Minister in TDP governament. Present Jagan candidate N. Prasanna Kumar reddys father Late Nallapa Reddy Srinivasulu Reddy was earlier MLA from Kovur and did some development works there and people remember his works and he is considered always in goor terms. Prasanna Kumar Reddy was earlier close to Lakshmi Parvathi and for that reason is in bad books of CBN and has no future with TDP. This may be the reason for him to Jump to Jagan party. But he lost what every good name his father earned and both he and TDP candidates are non local candidates. Communist have a good network and good no of votes in Kovur and this may help TDP. Congress will be a poor 3rd. My estemate is TDP may win in a hard fight with CPM support and Congress taking part of Jagan votes and remaining 3rd. In all good for the state.
I don't know why you are so confident. Almost everyone is saying that YSR-Congress winning Kovur is surety. The bets are about the margin. If TDP pulls it off then the political scenario of AP will have interesting changes.

For a long time Kovus Congress MLA was my next door resident. He never bothered to do anything for people and in Congress finished 3rd when he contested. CPM was second. CPM has a committed vote in Kovur - Jakka Vekayya regularly used to contest against Congress and used to get handsome votes. Now entire CPM votes will go to TDP. So I am not sure about Jagan gang claims - Every one said Rahul bab wave was there in UP

Only defforence is Milk baby with lot of proxy media ownership and blood baba with EJ and direct media ownership with paid media of Teluguland.

But who knowns mine may be wishfull thinking.

member_22286 · Post by **member_22286** » 19 Mar 2012 10:23

With 84% polling in Kovur it only indicates one thing Jagan is winning Kovur.He might have mobilized a lot of votes and even might have brought the booth agents of INC and TDP

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 19 Mar 2012 14:13

Money spending along will not help. In Nellore Balaji Group MD spent money like anything thing and lost in Nellore few years back. YSR gang is in a do or die condition. Hope they lose. Criminal gang is to be stopped for the interest of the nation.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 19 Mar 2012 21:37

There a lot of stupid and dumb people who start with "Everybody is corrupt. Everybody is a looter". This gross abuse of power has to be defeated and destroyed. A friend of mine had a manufacturing business in Hyderabad. The Jagan's goons came to his office (when YSR was CM) insisting that they should invest in Jagan's scam businesses: Sakshi or power plant etc. When my friend refused saying they are running in losses, the Jagan's gang comes with his tax returns from Income Tax dept along with IT officer to blackmail him and force him to invest 20+ lakhs.

This kind of scums are also given a pass by educated idiots in AP saying "It's there everywhere. He is no different."

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 19 Mar 2012 22:37

one of the things to monitor in Hyd is the behavior of Islamics in Mehdipatnam, and the "chota pakistan" area. Old City is mostly Muslim. always has been, so the behavior there has always been on the side of "radicalism". anybody on BRF have family/friends who had to recently conduct business in those areas? Jamaat-e-Islaami-Hind has some significant presence in Mehdipatnam, from what I hear. they are also pretty active with the Dawa networks in that area. One of my female cousins used to go to Mehdipatnam daily, for college, until a couple of years ago. there used to be bearded buffoons at some bus stands, who apparently went around "cheerfully explaining" the virtues of head covering to Hindu women. it was never violent, but apparently, quite a few times, even pamphlets were handed out it seems. anybody who frequents the area? as for "chota pakistan", people are afraid to even "display" their "Hinduness". I was advised on my last trip to not have tilak on forehead if I happened to pass through that area. this is a new development in the last 10 years. when I lived in Hyd, such stories were confined to Old City.

I am asking because there has been a lot of news recently about the new Sufi Center and the recent visit by Tahir. has the behavior, on the ground, changed?

member_22286 · Post by **member_22286** » 19 Mar 2012 22:44

devesh wrote:one of the things to monitor in Hyd is the behavior of Islamics in Mehdipatnam, and the "chota pakistan" area. Old City is mostly Muslim. always has been, so the behavior there has always been on the side of "radicalism". anybody on BRF have family/friends who had to recently conduct business in those areas? Jamaat-e-Islaami-Hind has some significant presence in Mehdipatnam, from what I hear. they are also pretty active with the Dawa networks in that area. One of my female cousins used to go to Mehdipatnam daily, for college, until a couple of years ago. there used to be bearded buffoons at some bus stands, who apparently went around "cheerfully explaining" the virtues of head covering to Hindu women. it was never violent, but apparently, quite a few times, even pamphlets were handed out it seems. anybody who frequents the area? as for "chota pakistan", people are afraid to even "display" their "Hinduness". I was advised on my last trip to not have tilak on forehead if I happened to pass through that area. this is a new development in the last 10 years. when I lived in Hyd, such stories were confined to Old City.

I am asking because there has been a lot of news recently about the new Sufi Center and the recent visit by Tahir. has the behavior, on the ground, changed?

Devesh too much of scare mongering at best even in Old city Owaisi and goons don't screw with Yadavs are Gowdas who live there.After NTR came to power came to power he ensured that the Hindus in the city to be a highly cohesive bunch.Muslims are not empowered to do monkey business in Hyd as much as people think.The punches are delivered at the loins to them while maintaining a facade of secularism in Hyderabad

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 19 Mar 2012 22:49

vijayk wrote:There a lot of stupid and dumb people who start with "Everybody is corrupt. Everybody is a looter". This gross abuse of power has to be defeated and destroyed. A friend of mine had a manufacturing business in Hyderabad. The Jagan's goons came to his office (when YSR was CM) insisting that they should invest in Jagan's scam businesses: Sakshi or power plant etc. When my friend refused saying they are running in losses, the Jagan's gang comes with his tax returns from Income Tax dept along with IT officer to blackmail him and force him to invest 20+ lakhs.

This kind of scums are also given a pass by educated idiots in AP saying "It's there everywhere. He is no different."

The expansion of the above statement is what I was trying to derive when Ashok was talking about kammas and relations to other communites (few pages ago). My reading based on my AP tour (in last September) to various rural and urban areas of AP (coast and T) is there is more anti-kamma stuff in the psyche and that is being exploited by Jagan. I did not delve deeper as that is turning into a deeper caste discussion. I really do not want to get into who is good and who is bad. The growth of several Kammas into 100+ million dollar club is too visible and whether it is good or bad, people are only finding pretext to gang up against TDP. This psyche is very high in almost all the forward castes. The "gang up" is causing these forward castes and educated to IGNORE the following:

(1) Jagan and his dad's historical loot (per some article, UN has put YSR regime as the most corrupt ever in India since independence)
(2) His openly EJ activeness.

The gang-up is the reason for T-Reddys also voting tactically. They are voting to TRS if there is a chance of TDP showing a good show. Even Jalagam Prasad Rao (vengal Rao's son) is planning to join YSR-congress. Jagan will be all over T when the time comes. The feeling of come what may but not TDP is the cause of Jagan's rise.

It is important that TDP break it and Kovur is a real good opportunity to do a start. They have to build a Kamma+OBC combo. I cannot imagine some of the OBCs are with Jagan's factory in Godavari and north AP districts. Some serious restructring has occured post 2004 era.

It is pure nonsense that TDP is hobnobbing with CPI, SP etc. Their natural partner is BJP for the kind of vote base they have. In fact if T really forms, the entire TDP of T will just merge with BJP. I will bet on that.

Assets of Jagan:

(1) Though the converted christians numbers are not that high (except on the internet), AP did reach a stage where these folks instead of voting on the lines of their caste (prior to conversion) started voting as a christian block.
(2) Reddys - all over are with Jagan
(3) Anti-Kamma psyche is all with Jagan - This is really important. The staunch congress folks who see TDP's return are flocking towards Jagan as they see a congress drubbing.

For the first time ever in AP, a political opponent used religion. TDP's Revanth Reddy clearly said mad rush of Reddys and christians is going to lead Jagan's win in Kovur. This is a history of sorts for me when TDP's leaders have to use the word "christian" in their interviews. They had the opportunity in 80s to ban conversions like the Congress government of Orissa did. They hobnobbed with the idea of Telugu Nadu on the lines of Tamil Nadu and they are paying the price now.

Funding of elections - AP's election can feed India's poor for a generation. It is madness all over. Lagadapati types are willing to spend the entire congress funding of 3000 to 4000 crore. Jagan has slush of 5k to 6k crore for funding. TDP no doubt can raise that level. One of my close friend is supposed to get RS TDP nomination and Ramesh was given precedence over him as the future funding issues have become important.

member_22286 · Post by **member_22286** » 19 Mar 2012 23:17

Muppalla wrote:
vijayk wrote:There a lot of stupid and dumb people who start with "Everybody is corrupt. Everybody is a looter". This gross abuse of power has to be defeated and destroyed. A friend of mine had a manufacturing business in Hyderabad. The Jagan's goons came to his office (when YSR was CM) insisting that they should invest in Jagan's scam businesses: Sakshi or power plant etc. When my friend refused saying they are running in losses, the Jagan's gang comes with his tax returns from Income Tax dept along with IT officer to blackmail him and force him to invest 20+ lakhs.

This kind of scums are also given a pass by educated idiots in AP saying "It's there everywhere. He is no different."
The expansion of the above statement is what I was trying to derive when Ashok was talking about kammas and relations to other communites (few pages ago). My reading based on my AP tour (in last September) to various rural and urban areas of AP (coast and T) is there is more anti-kamma stuff in the psyche and that is being exploited by Jagan. I did not delve deeper as that is turning into a deeper caste discussion. I really do not want to get into who is good and who is bad. The growth of several Kammas into 100+ million dollar club is too visible and whether it is good or bad, people are only finding pretext to gang up against TDP. This psyche is very high in almost all the forward castes. The "gang up" is causing these forward castes and educated to IGNORE the following:

(1) Jagan and his dad's historical loot (per some article, UN has put YSR regime as the most corrupt ever in India since independence)
(2) His openly EJ activeness.

The gang-up is the reason for T-Reddys also voting tactically. They are voting to TRS if there is a chance of TDP showing a good show. Even Jalagam Prasad Rao (vengal Rao's son) is planning to join YSR-congress. Jagan will be all over T when the time comes. The feeling of come what may but not TDP is the cause of Jagan's rise.

It is important that TDP break it and Kovur is a real good opportunity to do a start. They have to build a Kamma+OBC combo. I cannot imagine some of the OBCs are with Jagan's factory in Godavari and north AP districts. Some serious restructring has occured post 2004 era.

It is pure nonsense that TDP is hobnobbing with CPI, SP etc. Their natural partner is BJP for the kind of vote base they have. In fact if T really forms, the entire TDP of T will just merge with BJP. I will bet on that.

Assets of Jagan:

(1) Though the converted christians numbers are not that high (except on the internet), AP did reach a stage where these folks instead of voting on the lines of their caste (prior to conversion) started voting as a christian block.
(2) Reddys - all over are with Jagan
(3) Anti-Kamma psyche is all with Jagan - This is really important. The staunch congress folks who see TDP's return are flocking towards Jagan as they see a congress drubbing.

For the first time ever in AP, a political opponent used religion. TDP's Revanth Reddy clearly said mad rush of Reddys and christians is going to lead Jagan's win in Kovur. This is a history of sorts for me when TDP's leaders have to use the word "christian" in their interviews. They had the opportunity in 80s to ban conversions like the Congress government of Orissa did. They hobnobbed with the idea of Telugu Nadu on the lines of Tamil Nadu and they are paying the price now.

Funding of elections - AP's election can feed India's poor for a generation. It is madness all over. Lagadapati types are willing to spend the entire congress funding of 3000 to 4000 crore. Jagan has slush of 5k to 6k crore for funding. TDP no doubt can raise that level. One of my close friend is supposed to get RS TDP nomination and Ramesh was given precedence over him as the future funding issues have become important.

Anti-Kamma is not the thing Jagan is pro power like anyother politician Nimagadda Prasad is being screwed by CBI for investing in Jagans assets and the last time he checked he is Kamma.Sir one thing that is for Kamma's favour and Congress peril is Jagan is taking the traditional vote bank of Congress and the Reddies are feeling their power is eroding in Congress .In a single by-election Jagan can invest 100 crores but he does not have the fund or organization to sponsor all the 294 constituencies.

The educated are not the ones who are going towards Jagan rather it is the lower classes and SC christians who benefited from YSR's welfare schemes who are going towards Jagan.Jagan was stripped of a lot of his fat by Sonia Gandhi .Congress UP election had lot of Jagans money .

It is too early and we might be missing the trees for the woods.Victory in the Kadapa by-election screwed Jagan rather than helping to keep the CBI away

Regarding KCR's biggest mistake is targetting and painting an entire people of a region as black that is playing into the other hands.Now they want to make a lot of movies show causing KCR's clans feudal atrocities pre-independence as movies while simultaneously glorifying Telangana and the Telangana uprisings.Their aim is to make it hell for KCR's clan if Telangana is unavoidable and get their best friends the BC's into the power structure

Kammas have not been in power since 7 years sir and please don't peddle this anti-Kamma feelings when they are not even in power to drastically make money.Kammas have succeded in ensuring that their economic fortunes are independent of politics and political affiliations.They are no more into government contracts and liquor and sand syndicates it is all passe for them.

What Jagan is exploiting is late YSR's influence among the masses which he gained due to him giving old age pensions and Rajiv Arogyasri Scheme

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 20 Mar 2012 00:19

Ashok Gottipati wrote: Anti-Kamma is not the thing Jagan is pro power like anyother politician Nimagadda Prasad is being screwed by CBI for investing in Jagans assets and the last time he checked he is Kamma.Sir one thing that is for Kamma's favour and Congress peril is Jagan is taking the traditional vote bank of Congress and the Reddies are feeling their power is eroding in Congress .In a single by-election Jagan can invest 100 crores but he does not have the fund or organization to sponsor all the 294 constituencies.

If we take examples like this then there should be no Reddys in TDP, no Kammas in Congress. It is how you get the loot, influence, contracts split based on which party wins. True or false, the perception is that it is the Kammas in general that will prosper under TDP, Reddys + Congress specific vested interests in Congress rule. So taking few people here and there is not a right example. Businessmen work with anyone. Imagine Nimmagadda Prasad's biz if there was a TDP rule Vs his biz with YSRs. He would have got it seamlessly. For example as soon as YSR took over, he said let us screw all kammas who got benefited under TDP. They changed every alignment of the approved roads where Kammas have lands purchased during TDP.

Ashok Gottipati wrote: The educated are not the ones who are going towards Jagan rather it is the lower classes and SC christians who benefited from YSR's welfare schemes who are going towards Jagan.Jagan was stripped of a lot of his fat by Sonia Gandhi .Congress UP election had lot of Jagans money .

My reading is a lot of forward castes (almost 85% of this class are educted) are with Jagan as they see he is an alternative to TDP which tells they did not forget their resentment yet.Not just SC chrisitians but all christians are with Jagan is my take.

Ashok Gottipati wrote: Kammas have not been in power since 7 years sir and please don't peddle this anti-Kamma feelings when they are not even in power to drastically make money.Kammas have succeded in ensuring that their economic fortunes are independent of politics and political affiliations.They are no more into government contracts and liquor and sand syndicates it is all passe for them.

What Jagan is exploiting is late YSR's influence among the masses which he gained due to him giving old age pensions and Rajiv Arogyasri Scheme

You are taking it wrong and I have nothing against anyone and you don't know me and what I am too

Take my post as a data point for analysis or discussion. I did not claim I am right anywhere and I am saying it as my reading onlee. Coming back to the point, gang-up does not need politics or political clout as the reason. It is the visibility of someone's massive growth and it is enough to gang up is my point.

My focus is NOT Jagan's influence in the poorer sections. My focus is Jagan getting forward caste votes that includes non-Reddys. It is a fact that the erstwhile voters are moving towards Jagan if they know congress in not going to be a winner. Imagine Congress gets 3rd position in all of the seven assembly (results will be out in another 10 hours) and I bet there will queues towards Jagan. Again congress will have to resort to undemocratic stuff against Jagan.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 20 Mar 2012 00:25

Muppalla wrote: Assets of Jagan:

(1) Though the converted christians numbers are not that high (except on the internet), AP did reach a stage where these folks instead of voting on the lines of their caste (prior to conversion) started voting as a christian block.
(2) Reddys - all over are with Jagan
(3) Anti-Kamma psyche is all with Jagan - This is really important. The staunch congress folks who see TDP's return are flocking towards Jagan as they see a congress drubbing.

For the first time ever in AP, a political opponent used religion. TDP's Revanth Reddy clearly said mad rush of Reddys and christians is going to lead Jagan's win in Kovur. This is a history of sorts for me when TDP's leaders have to use the word "christian" in their interviews. They had the opportunity in 80s to ban conversions like the Congress government of Orissa did. They hobnobbed with the idea of Telugu Nadu on the lines of Tamil Nadu and they are paying the price now.

High turn out means, Jagan drove his vote banks for voting in missionary fervor and with lot of money. Nallapareddy always won with high %. How much of damage for TDP and Congress vote share is there this time determines how the vote banks are flowing to Jagan. Kovur is good case for Jagan to show Congress that Congress can lose deposits and TDP is good second and can replace Congress government so he is best alternative for Congress.

If SCs (almost all Christians are SCs) and Reddys go to Jagan, it is votebank polarization of sort and severe damage to Congress . Congress will have to rely on Balijas. TDP has good opportunity to pull in all other castes but how it garner overwhelming support need to be seen.

This is PRP2 in making and good ground for EVM manipulations for next general elections.

* On a side note this area being birth place of the great Mahabharata author Tikanna Somayaji, going Adharmic by electing YSR&co is sad.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 20 Mar 2012 01:53

IMO, the "rise" of YSJ should have been foreseen. I have a feeling that KCR and TRS will join together with Jagan. don't ask how I "feel" this. it is a natural progression. both KCR type "doras" and YSJ are "doras". their attitude is similar to the erstwhile "doras" pre-1947. KCR+Jagan is a match made in heaven. and Jagan might use that alliance to further the EJ agenda in Telangana.

as for TDP, they will soon realize that Jagan EJ gang and those others like Jagan will require a very different "opposition". as of right now, TDP does not have the "ammunition" to take on Jagan types. the Christian EJ gang will have its merry time, for a little more while, until TDP figures out the source of Jagan's power. TDP will have to understand the psyche of EJ. and that is when TDP will begin the process of transforming into something completely different. the thinking minds in TDP might have already gotten a glimpse of this.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 20 Mar 2012 01:57

I really hope TDP is up to the task of taking on EJ gang. b/c if TDP is blind to how the social dynamics are changing b/c of EJ's, they will be doomed. the forces behind TDP (Kammas) are not fools and they will look for alternatives, if TDP doesn't understand that the "Hindu" is changing in his attitudes. and the "elites" (Reddys, Kammas, Velamas) are not immune to these changes. they will also feel the same pressures and attitude changes in their own families.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 20 Mar 2012 02:06

Ashok Gottipati wrote:
Devesh too much of scare mongering at best even in Old city Owaisi and goons don't screw with Yadavs are Gowdas who live there.After NTR came to power came to power he ensured that the Hindus in the city to be a highly cohesive bunch.Muslims are not empowered to do monkey business in Hyd as much as people think.The punches are delivered at the loins to them while maintaining a facade of secularism in Hyderabad

NTR brought some "control" to the MiM gang. but the Islamists knew when to "retreat" and conserve energy. their "silence" during the TDP era was a tactical understanding of their own weaknesses. they understood that they need to retreat and save energy for later. and that is exactly what they did. no offence, but I think you seriously underestimate the power of the Islamists. the "no go" areas in Hyderabad, ever since 2004, have expanded. before that, only Old City used to be "no go". this gives me reason to believe that Islamists have become emboldened.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 20 Mar 2012 02:20

devesh wrote:I really hope TDP is up to the task of taking on EJ gang. b/c if TDP is blind to how the social dynamics are changing b/c of EJ's, they will be doomed. the forces behind TDP (Kammas) are not fools and they will look for alternatives, if TDP doesn't understand that the "Hindu" is changing in his attitudes. and the "elites" (Reddys, Kammas, Velamas) are not immune to these changes. they will also feel the same pressures and attitude changes in their own families.

AP has less brahminical order in politics for anyone to easily make religious issue. This is also one of reasons why BJP fizzled out fast. EJs too will have to work through caste politics to make any religious issue.

Early on EJs worked on upper castes with limited success and so they went to SC demographics where they are cheaper and can make victim hood to entice and convert. Coastal area went one wave EJism since 60s but caste pecking order ensured some balance without violence between the castes. If they want second wave, they need to make it violent. If that friction starts SC-Chrisitan+Reddy votebanks will fizzle out for Jagan. Currently that votebank may be together due to money power and promises.

Interesting times ahead for Jagan votebanks.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 20 Mar 2012 02:49

saar, brahminical order has nothing to with religion. in AP, brahmins are a deracinated bunch. they have been voting for INC for a long time, and continue to do so. they never voted for TDP and now they will be split between INC and Jagan. they never cared that INC was facilitating the EJ mafia. they have no interest in bring "hindutva" into the debate. they don't subscribe to that politics, and consider it a "waste of time".

as for the next phase of EJ politics in AP, Jagan will benefit from that wave. Jagan is a "consequence" of past generation of EJ success. the EJ's won't do anything that will swallow Jagan. Jagan is their best hope to ride to power. if EJ's descend into violence, then know that Jagan approved it. that Jagan probably perceives some benefit from the violence. whatever future moves are made by EJ gang in AP, it is a sign of their perception of their own strengths and weaknesses. Jagan putting up a cross on his office is already an indication that he feels confident about his religious agenda. he is more confidence about his EJ politics than YSR ever was. this is a sign of things to come.

if Jagan wins Kovur, he will be vastly more emboldened. the EJ gang might begine the next wave. they will use religion as a mobilization tool. since 1947, this has never happened. religion based mobilization has never worked in AP, except for the pockets of Hyd city by M-i-M. Jagan is creating history. he is creating the first ever genuinely "Christian" party in AP politics. we will see a glimpse of North East style christian mobilization in AP.

Jai Ho!

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 20 Mar 2012 03:15

devesh wrote:saar, brahminical order has nothing to with religion. in AP, brahmins are a deracinated bunch. they have been voting for INC for a long time, and continue to do so. they never voted for TDP and now they will be split between INC and Jagan. they never cared that INC was facilitating the EJ mafia. they have no interest in bring "hindutva" into the debate. they don't subscribe to that politics, and consider it a "waste of time".

as for the next phase of EJ politics in AP, Jagan will benefit from that wave. Jagan is a "consequence" of past generation of EJ success. the EJ's won't do anything that will swallow Jagan. Jagan is their best hope to ride to power. if EJ's descend into violence, then know that Jagan approved it. that Jagan probably perceives some benefit from the violence. whatever future moves are made by EJ gang in AP, it is a sign of their perception of their own strengths and weaknesses. Jagan putting up a cross on his office is already an indication that he feels confident about his religious agenda. he is more confidence about his EJ politics than YSR ever was. this is a sign of things to come.

if Jagan wins Kovur, he will be vastly more emboldened. the EJ gang might begine the next wave. they will use religion as a mobilization tool. since 1947, this has never happened. religion based mobilization has never worked in AP, except for the pockets of Hyd city by M-i-M. Jagan is creating history. he is creating the first ever genuinely "Christian" party in AP politics. we will see a glimpse of North East style christian mobilization in AP.

Jai Ho!

Brahminical order has nothing to do with brahmins only. I was more referring in terms of traditional pecking order of power in other parts of India.

Jagan source is Reddy power, if they don't come to him no amount of EJ votebanks will be with him. Ejs will jump back to Congress. Reddys are at loggerheads to throw weight behind Jagan. If they find alternative Reddy, they will dump him as Reddy wealth/economics are not because of Jagan but Congress.

All they are doing is some show for Congress as Congress is showing indication of changing K in KHAM and they want to teach it a lesson.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 20 Mar 2012 03:36

devesh wrote:one of the things to monitor in Hyd is the behavior of Islamics in Mehdipatnam, and the "chota pakistan" area. Old City is mostly Muslim. always has been, so the behavior there has always been on the side of "radicalism". anybody on BRF have family/friends who had to recently conduct business in those areas?

Interesting that you mention Mehdipatnam. Mehdipatnam-Tolichowki-Golkonda-Barkas has always been a stronghold of Jamait-e-islami-hind before but now especially Tolichowki and Barkas are the strong hold of Darshga-e-jihad-o-Shahadat (DJS). Its the greener vareity of the Jammat. Although many DJS members went into underground, they are still succesfull in having rallies (with the covert support of MIM cadres) in Barkas. Colonies surrounding Tolichowki like Suryanagar coloney, Shaikpet etc were originally developed by Andhra/Telangana Hindu familes in the 80s taking advantage of lesser prices.Many of them built houses there. There was naive mentality among them that these areas are and would be somehow different from the Islamist Charminar areas and wont go that way. But since late 90s and early 2000s, many Hindu families sold their houses/plots to Gulf returned Muslims who started massively investing in the Mehdipatnam-Tolichowki-Golkonda triangle.There used to be gym in the center of Tolichowki (dont know if its still there) and daily five, six aged Tabligi jamaat people use to intrude early in the morning when its full with teenager kids (majority muslim but some Hindu) and give lectures on "How to be a good Muslim boy", 'Greatness of Islam' etc. The indoctrination starts from early age.

Socio-economically, the Mehidipatnam-Tolichowki area is much much better than the Charminar-Afzalgunj areas because of the Gulf money.Lingistically also Mehdipatnam-Tolichowki areas is more "Andhraised" compared to Charminar because of the huge amount of Andhra settlers who built their houses there (most of whom are sold out to Muslims now).The Telangana people easily slip into Hindi/Urdu at the drop of a hat while the Andhra settlers with no knowledge of Urdu force everyone including Muslims to speak Turdu.Many of the Andhra settlers there are highly qualified people and after the infusion of the gulf money and expansion of the settlements, many are moving out to other 'safer' places towards Ameerpet-Kukatpally-BHEL areas.Politically, its always been a strong hold of MIM with only the BJP's Baddam Bal Reddy being an exception.But the "love Jihad" there works in both ways, atleast in my limited expereince.Not that this is a rule but from a personel expereince, I know many of my child hood friends from Andhra Kamma backgrounds who flirted with Muslim girls for years going to all possible lengths including physical intimacy and then marrying a pucca Andhra Kamma Ammayi.The reverse may also be true where many Andhra girls flirting with Muslim boys and then marry Andhra boys as per family perscriptions.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 20 Mar 2012 03:37

when we make categories like "Reddy power", or "Kamma power" we develop very narrow viewpoints. I don't subscribe to that view. TDP might be Kamma predominantly, but their vote base is much broader. same with Jagan. the average Reddy guy wants to vote for him b/c they feel kinship with him.

how do we change that? how do we create an identity that can withstand the centrifugal forces of caste feeling?

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 20 Mar 2012 05:09

Rony wrote: Socio-economically, the Mehidipatnam-Tolichowki area is much much better than the Charminar-Afzalgunj areas because of the Gulf money.Lingistically also Mehdipatnam-Tolichowki areas is more "Andhraised" compared to Charminar because of the huge amount of Andhra settlers who built their houses there (most of whom are sold out to Muslims now).

I still have substantial relatives living in Mehdipatnam area. Those are old timers and they think they are the real Hyderabadis. Just roll back the timeline to 60s and 70s. The areas such as Ramnagar, Adikmet Vidyanagar, in and around OU, Jamaismania station and then over to Sec'bad side. It was all one swathe of Karachi of India with 60% to 40% ratio in favor of Hindus. That is where my early childhood was before dad got transferred. When Southern Railway got split to South Central Railway with Sec as division HQ, there is influx of Andraites and most of them settled in these areas. It was the early settlers colonies of Hyd.

This Mullahcracy in Hyd is all about who is pampering them. TDP times it was no-nonsense issue and also TDP in not a faction ridden party so that one faction istigates riots to remove the CM etc. Mini-Pakistans with 90 to 100% of Mullahs are far better than 60 to 40 as far as I can tell. Thod phod karne keliye there will be nothing visible. Riots in Hyd is now a difficult proportion. Think 80s and also 90s. It was not as repetetive and predictable as it was before. The reason is the influx of Andhraites with a shift in demographies of most of colonies in Sec'bad region. If there is a rioting on Hindu properties in HYD, the response in Sec'bad used to be bad for Mullah. This balance is what keeps these Pakized Hyd mullahs. Later growth actually crunched the Mullah areas. I recently heard rumors of grabbing more Mullah lands and buils some 30 floor cheap apartments in return for the land grabbed

.

Owaisi's recent anti-Ram rants, and closure of a road side temple because of Mullah takleef is all because of pampering and also the old time defenders becoming lazy. Or something on the politcal side is cooking to take advantage off.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 20 Mar 2012 05:56

Plan to close the thread after the results are discussed.
Thanks for all the participation.

ramana

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 20 Mar 2012 06:29

so, judging by personal anecdotes, situation in Hyd seems "in control". then what explains the Sufi Center and visit of Tahir with one lakh attending? there is something that we are missing.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 20 Mar 2012 07:10

devesh wrote:when we make categories like "Reddy power", or "Kamma power" we develop very narrow viewpoints. I don't subscribe to that view. TDP might be Kamma predominantly, but their vote base is much broader. same with Jagan. the average Reddy guy wants to vote for him b/c they feel kinship with him.

how do we change that? how do we create an identity that can withstand the centrifugal forces of caste feeling?

Except on the extreme pherephary, tell me which state of India does not have caste stuff when it comes to elections and other systems? Why would AP be different? Taking WB and beyond out of equation there is not a single state in India that have any major differences from the way AP is. It is all about how much you dig and write about it.

Telangana thread is an opportunity to dig deep about AP, its people and their clashes. It is also an opportunity to expose the disunity and sometimes look worse than fools. Try doing the same about any state, you will get the same stuff. If EJ giri is big in one place, Mullahgardi is big somewhere else. Bangla influx somewhere else.

India or whatever its name before was never united because of some identity. It is always by a leader or due to a strong empire it was united. Every time period has its own identities and clashes for dominance. Inspite of clashes, it still survived because the clash remained internal. Things started going south only when these lands got exposed to non-SD cultures from Europe and CA. Once it reached a stage of no-point of return then the intellectual arm chair analysts stated to think for a need for an identity that can withstand centrifugal forces. There is no easy magic wand to implement the thought as they have to instill in a gene that is several thousand years old.

Nothing different is going to happen. Some disorder will come but it is a temporary phase onlee. However, it will be very interesting to read the politics of AP in the coming days.