West Asia News and Discussions

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shyamd
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by shyamd »

GCC - source hinted at it. Source always stated that arms were flowing in whilst international media was saying they are running out of munition. Source is proved right once again.

It targeted intel HQ, so instead of using planes, this is the easier tactic. US is still saying no to maneuver until after elections are over on Syria and Iran. But some convincing has taken place to get the US to cooperate a little more and allow arming of rebels. US can't really stop the current route that is taking place - as you can see the Damascus one US can't really stop. US can only stop the sea route and Lebanon route. But looks like US has started allowing this route to remain open now.

US is actually overstating their role.
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Syria: the elephant in the room amid military exercise in Jordan
Editor's Note: Barbara Starr is in Amman, Jordan covering the Eager Lion 2012 exercise. Watch for her stories on CNN next week.

By Barbara Starr

With a photo of a raging lion over their shoulders, senior U.S. and Jordanian generals opened a massive military exercise dubbed "Eager Lion."

The kickoff came with adamant statements that the 12,000 troops from 19 countries now in Jordan were here only for the training - and it all has nothing to do with the violence now raging across Jordan's northern border inside Syria.

Recommended: U.S. in waiting game on Syria

But it is hard to avoid. Even the exercise name has raised suspicions. In Arabic, the word for lion is asad. :lol:

But the name has nothing to do with the Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, say Maj. Gen. Awni Ad Adwan, head of Jordanian military operations and training, and Maj. Gen. Kenneth Tovo, head of U.S. Central Command's special operations force.

Technically, everyone is correct. The name of the exercise was chosen two years ago, the timing of it set nearly three years ago. Officially, the exercise is about 19 nations training together and, as with all U.S. military training exercises, the threat the troops are practicing to fend off is unnamed.

But there is the technical answer and then there is reality. Syria looms large here.

Publicly, officials are adamant that Jordan's neighbor to the north is not the issue or the reason for the military gathering. It is a very sensitive topic and, after two days on the ground, an unavoidable topic with pretty much every Jordanian and U.S. official I've talked to.

Jordan's leaders are seriously concerned about what al-Assad might do, and what that means for Jordan's security. So merely having this exercise go forward, many here believe, sends a message to Assad that Jordan will be defended and helped - or so the Jordanians hope.

U.S. and Jordanian special operations forces in particular are training for several days on key assault and commando operations, fine-tuning skills learned over the years in Iraq and Afghanistan. Marines conduct assault operations in southern Jordan, which is as far from Syria as they can be.

But what is the threat from Syria?

First, there are tens of thousands of Palestinians in Syria, many near the Jordanian border. If Assad feels vulnerable, he could open up the border and force them south into Jordan, which then would face economic and political hardship from yet more refugees. This would be after years of Jordan's taking in Iraqi and Palestinian refugees under great financial strain. Syrian forces have already fired at refugees fleeing across border checkpoints in Jordan.

The nightmare scenario for everyone is al-Assad's weapons of mass destruction. What if those weapons, currently deemed secure, were to slip away from state control and be smuggled into Jordan for a potential terrorist attack?

Two tasks the troops of Eager Lion will practice are dealing with a flow of displaced persons and responding to a chemical incident, though the latter exercise will use a scenario involving an industrial accident.

Still, it helps explain, as foreign troops move around this country and U.S. Marines fly their combat-proven V-22 tilt rotor aircraft near Jordan's capital city, why everyone knows there just might be a bit of reality in this training exercise against no specific enemy.

Think of it as just in case.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by shyamd »

Deputy NSA was in tehran this week. We missed it.

http://en.trend.az/regions/iran/2024051.html

Meetings took place as part of Iran-India meetings for strategic interaction and comprehensive security and political cooperation.

Energy, Indo Iranian naval security was part of the discussions, regional security etc.

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Third known incident of KSA extraditing suspects. First was providing intel to India to enable the arrest of a 26/11 suspect. Second was the detention and deportation of PFI activists - notorious for their sectarian acitivity in Kerala, this would be the third incident.

Looks like the extradition treaty is operational. But Indian Embassy denies a request for arrest was made from them. Darbhanga IG says not wanted... Interesting. So probably lead by IB once again.
Engineer arrested in Saudi Arabia, deported
Mohammad Ali


Faseeh Mahmood, an engineer living at Dammam in Saudi Arabia, arrested in that country on “terror-related charges,” has reportedly been deported to India.

Even though authorities here haven't confirmed his arrest and deportation, Mahmood's family is apprehensive that he may have been arrested in connection with terror charges, as he hails from the village of Barasmela in Darbhanga, from where Mohammed Kafeel Akthar was picked up by the Bangalore police on May 6, for his alleged role in the 2010 blasts at the Chinnaswamy Stadium in Bangalore. Mahmood's wife was deported to India on Tuesday.

Mahmood's cousin, who doesn't want to be identified, told The Hindu that Saudi Arabian intelligence officials arrested Mahmood from his home at Jubail in Dammam on May 13. They told him that he was being arrested as there were some charges against him in India, for which he would be deported. Mahmood's family alleges that there has been no news of his whereabouts since Sunday afternoon.

When approached by family members, the Indian Embassy officials in Riyadh said they couldn't provide any information on Mahmood's whereabouts, because of some “intelligence issues.”

Mahmood was an employee of Eram Engineering Corporations in Al-Khubair, and has been living in Saudi Arabia for the past few years. A relative of Gauhar Azeez Khomeni, who was arrested by the Delhi police in blast-related cases, Mahmood had completed his B. Tech. from an engineering college at Bhatkal in Karnataka.

Mahmood's brother has denied that he was ever in touch with any terror or extremist group or individual: “He was the earning member of his family, and was moderate in his outlook.”

“No information”

The Joint Commissioner of Police Crime, Bangalore (East), B. Dayanand, who is supervising the stadium blasts case, said he had no information regarding Mahmood's name in connection with the blasts so far.

Sources in the Delhi police said that Mahmood isn't wanted in any of the cases in Delhi as yet.

An External Affairs Ministry spokesperson said the “Ministry has no information in the case as of now.”

(With inputs from Devesh K. Pandey in Delhi and Subramanya in Bangalore)
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http://www.kuna.net.kw/ArticleDetails.a ... anguage=en
Its Kuwait Culture week in Delhi. Several senior journalists, academics from Kuwait visit India. Textiles, art, dance, music - Kuwaiti's performing to bollywood songs etc.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

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After a meeting with source:
- GCC now provide the intel to the US on Syria!!
- US intel agencies are dumber than most think and have zilch experience and haven't been able to predict any major change in the west asian region.
- Weapons that is being provided is what has been giving the FSA some victories in Homs and Rastan (the other day).

GCC Union - Some facts and this is not even in the press btw -
- GCC Union is still work in progress. Still some contentious issues.
- Main contentious issues is the threat assessment and use of military power decision making.
- GCC Peninsula Shield Force (GCC PSF) is based on KSA control. This is not acceptable to smaller states (UAE, Kuwait, Qatar...)
- There will be a GCC Rapid Deployment Force (GRDF) of over 100k troops with bases all over the GCC and their own independent rules of engagement.
- All the GCC states will continue to have independent militaries but will contribute to the unified defence forces and also for local defence.
- Foreign policy will be integrated into the Union but one states deals with another country will still be unaffected.
- Source stated that the US is not at all behind these moves at all. They have no understanding of GCC undercurrents and concerns.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by RamaY »

^ I doubt the GCC PSF would ever evolve into a real fighting force/army except act as a small-scale militia in TFTA gadgets.

It is interesting that a 42 million population & $1 trillion GCC is not able to develop an army of 100,000 and maintain it cohesively.

Says a lot about inbuilt social fractures and racial inadequecies.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by abhischekcc »

It is mostly ego hassles - most of these countries are monarchies, and these guys cut their eye-teeth on status.

The GCC monetory union has been held up for years because of the decision where to place the central bank for this currency. KSA insists it should be in Riyadh (or some other KSA sity), Abu Dhabi insists it should be Abu Dhabi. Essentially, since the city which hosts the central bank will begin to gain the contours of the Capital of Arabia, it is very critical.

Abu Dhabi ruler insists that he is the Khalifa (leader of muslim world), and KSA ruler is a mere king. :P
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by gunjur »

The 19 countries which are involved in military excercise in jordan are
Australia, Bahrain, Brunei, Egypt, France, Italy, Iraq, Jordan, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Lebanon, Pakistan, Qatar, Spain, Romania, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom and United States
Source
Where is turkey???
The link also mentions this
Media reports in Jordan claimed that the exercises were a message not only to Syria but Iran.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Sachin »

abhischekcc wrote:It is mostly ego hassles - most of these countries are monarchies, and these guys cut their eye-teeth on status.
I remember a dialogue from Lawrence of Arabia where Lawrence clearly tell Arabs that they will never have a chance to win against Turkey until their Your tribe against My tribe type fights come to an end. And the movie also shows the Arabs meeting in Damascus to decide who should do what, and reach no decision.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by shyamd »

RamaY wrote:^ I doubt the GCC PSF would ever evolve into a real fighting force/army except act as a small-scale militia in TFTA gadgets.

It is interesting that a 42 million population & $1 trillion GCC is not able to develop an army of 100,000 and maintain it cohesively.

Says a lot about inbuilt social fractures and racial inadequecies.
They are scared of a cOup so keep the army weak. They are expanding the military because of the threats by Iran and actually social issues. The union is not a weapon system.

Glad you realised that, the GCC is weak and their capabilities are defensive. It quashes the conspiracy theory that people with certain ideological agendas are propagating.
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3rd visit in a year by Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed. Cooperation on Gulf of Aden and Somalia security. As I said last year, it was the UAE that was pushing us to help train the Somali forces in return for oil riches.

UAE eager to boost energy exports to India
(Wam) / 18 May 2012

NEW DELHI — The UAE is keen to increase its energy exports, as well as downstream investments in India, said Foreign Minister Shaikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

The UAE “would like to see more energy exports to India especially when it comes to crude oil... There are talks between our officials looking at these avenues and even further. We would like to see UAE presence in downstream investments in India, including petrochemicals,” Shaikh Abdullah told reporters on Friday during a joint Press conference with Indian Minister of External Affairs S.M. Krishna.

Shaikh Abdullah and Krishna held wide-range of discussions on international, regional and bilateral issues including ways to boost trade ties, maritime security cooperation to tackle piracy and India-Pakistan ties.

Shaikh Abdullah also said that he was “pleased” to see the developing “vibrant” ties between India and Pakistan.

According to the Press Trust of India, the two sides also discussed the forthcoming 3rd India-Arab Economic Conclave to be hosted in Abu Dhabi on May 21 and 22 and the proposed road show on investments in Abu Dhabi and Dubai that Indian officials intend to undertake in June to exchange information and clarify issues related to the investment climate in India. Also discussed were ways to increase cooperation to fight the “scourge” of piracy.

“Resolving piracy cannot come until we resolve Somalia,” Shaikh Abdullah said. He said building Somalia’s capacity in every form is the way the issue of piracy can be tackled. Underlining the country’s need to increase its oil imports, Krishna said: “The need to increase import of oil and other energy sources is of extreme critical importance and in UAE we have a dependable supplier which India needs so badly.”

He added that it was decided to set up a high-level joint task force on investment which will also look into securing more oil supplies from UAE that has assured it of “increased” energy exports. Shaikh Hamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Chief of the Abu Dhabi Crown Prince’s Court and Managing Director of the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, and India’s Commerce, Industries and Textiles Minister Anand Sharma will be leading the respective sides of the high-level task force, Krishna said.

Aside from oil, the UAE is also looking at investment opportunities in sectors like petrochemicals. The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the world’s biggest sovereign wealth funds, is looking at investment opportunities in India, particularly in the real estate sector.
From the press conference:
External Affairs Minister: We attach great importance to working with all other countries including the United Arab Emirates to counter the scourge of piracy on the high seas. When I visited Abu Dhabi last month, we had very extensive discussions on this issue. Both of us have agreed that our officials will work together and cooperate on tackling this menace collectively. We intend to share our knowledge, our intelligence, and cooperate effectively on this issue with the United Arab Emirates so that we as a group could tackle this scourge.

Foreign Minister of UAE: Resolving piracy will not come unless we can resolve Somalia. It is very important that at a time when we face piracy in the Gulf of Aden and beyond actually, which I am very much pleased that the UAE and India are working very closely on, its key where we can resolve the source of this problem which is the lack of government, of unity, of the void that has been created in Somalia. We are working very closely with the Central Government in Mogadishu but also with the local governments in Somalia where we could further not only help and support but try to get them together, and beyond by engaging with the African Union, in helping Somalia, in supporting many of their difficulties let alone poverty and drought. But beyond that, where we can help them building their capacity in every way and form. That is the only way where we can make sure that the source of piracy is resolved. And here also the help and the cooperation between our two countries to Somalia and to the African Union is vital and key.

We will also have the opportunity to talk about the importance of securing maritime access in the Gulf of Aden, stabilizing and supporting the Government in Somalia. So, there is a huge agenda in front of us both on investment, trade but also on security and political matters.

India and the UAE will work together to counter maritime piracy in the Gulf of Aden, for which the two sides will share intelligence and help build capacities in the troubled state of Somalia.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by RamaY »

shyamd wrote: They are scared of a cOup so keep the army weak. They are expanding the military because of the threats by Iran and actually social issues. The union is not a weapon system.

Glad you realised that, the GCC is weak and their capabilities are defensive. It quashes the conspiracy theory that people with certain ideological agendas are propagating.
We stand in opposite camps when it comes to GCC. In my humble opinion this trade triumphs national security and GCC is a benevolent partner is all pure 24ct BS. I also do not agree with your tone of presentation, which colors the joining the US+Sunni band-wagon is dharmic and every other strategy is jingoism... But you have your thoughts...

A factional GCC doesn't mean it cannot hurt Indian interests, internally and externally.

Also you misunderstand the unifying factor of Islam especially when the opponent is Hindu India.

It is interesting that you mentioned USA/TSP messing up the internal security of KSA. What do you mean?
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by shyamd »

Agree to disagree. We are not part of any bandwagon for that matter and last I checked we still have good strategic cooperation with Iran. Just to give perspective India will only reduce imports from Iran by 11% meanwhile china has reduced by 40%. Trade delegations from Iran continue to visit on the same day as HC visit.

Oh and btw, can you please ask NM why he is inviting investments from Islamic nations including Pakistan? Is he a sell out now? Is he part of a Sunni bandwagon as well?

I perfectly do understand KSA and their role. Isn't cooperation a good thing? Isn't it a positive sign that they have helped us and help us develop the economy?
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Post by RamaY »

This is the problem with your argument.

National Interests should triumph doesn't mean no trade at all. I am not chela of NM to ask 'him' anything. If he gives the same explanations as you do, I would criticize him the same way I am doing now.

What are Indian Interests? My definition of it is
1. Territorial Integrity - No compromise on territorial integrity, even if it is 1 sq.km of land, unless it helps to gain at least double the land that extends Indian Security.
- Disputed areas - Like PoK, Northern Areas, Aksai-chin etc: Our partners must support our rights on these claims.
- Extended region - Burma, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, Tibet, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Mauritius, Maldives etc are India's extended. Our partners should not make strategic investments in these areas.

2. Cultural Security - India is home to Hindu/Sanatana Dharma and its cultural foundation. Any 'ism' that tries to hurt our Sanatana Dharmic principles, followers, locations, symbols, artefacts, subsystems directly or indirectly anywhere in the world are hurting our national interests.

3. Flora-Fauna - India doesnt mean only its people. All its flora and fauna have equal rights as Indian human population. All their original forms will be protected and will get equal treatment as their human counter parts. That means no one can destroy local flora fauna to make space for a genetically modified foreign species so humans can export food grains.

4. Natural Resources - especially the renewable resources like river waters, minerals etc.,

5. Intellectual Security - All the sciences, systems, patents and ideas

6. Energy Security

7. Trade Security
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by shyamd »

Thanks for your comments. Agree to disagree. Our relations with west Asia is changing but the key is to harness the most benefits from the relations - security, economic, energy cooperation but at the same time we should guard from funding of terror, NGO's etc. this is the same for any nation who we partner with. Our cooperation is moving in the right direction and we can judge it by the proof in the eating- extraditions, intel, energy cooperation, investments in our infrastructure to help make us a super power.

In 2002, international media was making out Modi and BJP as anti Muslim etc. But UAE came and signed a strategic agreement. king Abdullah signalled that he wanted to have stronger relations with India in his letters to ABV. In 2001, Jaswant Singh was invited to Riyadh and high level economic delegations basically started to take off from then.

Trade is also part of national interests and the govt earns its taxes from it and our aim is national development equally with national security. When we look at national security we look at the situation holistically before we make a decision. Policies on major national security issues dont really change and opposition is taken into confidence on major national sec issues.

I personally have a slightly different vision, no i dont agree with everything the govt says and does nor do I support one political party.

I wish you best of luck in propagating your idea of national interest. Do consider joining politics, youngsters like yourself would be a treasure to the nation. Best of luck
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

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Clashes reported in high security district in Damascus - houses security and foreign ministry offices.

Rumour that Assef Shawkat is dead and was assassinated!! He is a senior security minister and controls the army. Would be huge blow for Assad if true. So far denials have come out.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Austin »

****Deleted****
Last edited by Austin on 20 May 2012 16:34, edited 1 time in total.
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UN chief says Al Qaeda behind Syria bombings
The UN General-Secretary Ban Ki-moon believes Al-Qaeda was behind two suicide car-bomb attacks in Syria that claimed 55 lives and injured 372 last week.

­"A few days ago there was a huge, serious, massive terrorist attack. I believe that there must be Al-Qaeda behind it. This has created again very serious problems," Ban told a youth event at UN headquarters in New York on Friday.

The bombings occurred in the Syrian capital Damascus on May 10 and have been described as the deadliest attack in the city since the beginning of the uprising against the Assad regime.

The UN chief added that at least 10,000 people have now died in the 14-months of conflict in Syria.

Damascus insists that it is fighting foreign-led insurgents.

The statement by Ban Ki-moon comes after the Syrian envoy to the UN, Bashar Ja’afari, released the names of 26 alleged foreign terrorists it claims to have captured on its soil. Twenty are said to be Arabs who have confessed to working for Al Qaeda. The list also includes French and British citizens.

He added that most of the detained are thought to have entered Syria through Turkey.
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We can’t win media war with West but it’s not battle that counts - Assad
West outplayed Syria on media battlefield'

Assad admits that Syria is losing the media war against the West, but says “the reality is what really matters” and not “the illusions” created by the media.

He said that the media outplayed the Syrian government in the very beginning of the conflict by making up stories and spreading rumors. But in the long term the media cannot beat the reality, he added, and eventually the circumstances have changed because what is really happening is very much different from what the media reports.

Assad also said that the Syrian government repeatedly tried to express its point of view to numerous international journalists, but the agencies kept sending to Syria only those people who would stick with the same lies and false picture created in the first days of the conflict.

Not so Free Syrian Army

Assad says that the Syrian National Council, an “opposition” operating from abroad, has from little or no influence on what is happening in Syria and does not have any kind of significance within Syria. Though on the ground the Free Syrian Army is widely considered to be the core of the armed and organized opposition movement, Assad believes the FSA has not much to either with freedom or the organized army.

“First of all they are not free,” the head of state said, explaining that they will never be free while they are supplied with guns and funded from abroad.

He described the Free Syrian Army as a crowd of convicted criminals, comprised among other things of Al-Qaeda type religious fanatics, extremists and terrorists and to some extent of foreign mercenaries, predominantly from other Arab states.

Assad revealed that Syrian forces had captured a number of foreign mercenaries who were fighting for the opposition. He explained the authorities had not advertised the fact until now because they did not have enough evidence to prove the fighters were indeed mercenaries.

"Some [of the mercenaries] are still alive,” he said. “They are being detained and we are preparing to show them to the world. Many of them have been killed.”

Syrian rebels are also known to have gone to Kosovo to study partisan warfare tactics, Assad added. “There is information that a group of people who call themselves opposition went to Kosovo to train in organizing military intervention by NATO into Syria,” he told Rossiya-24.

Western sanctions and UN mission – both one-sided

At the moment there are 212 military observers and 68 civilian staff working for the UN observer mission in Syria monitoring the implementation of Kofi Annan’s peace plan.

Assad says that a decrease in direct military confrontation with the opposition due to the redeployment of the military was the only positive result of the mission’s arrival. At the same time, he says, the number of terror attacks targeting civilians has sharply increased and is now at its highest level since the beginning of the crisis.

The West keeps talking “about violence, but violence from the side of the government, not a word about the terrorists,” the Syrian leader said. “Mr. Annan will come to Syria this month, and I will ask him about this matter.”

Slapping Syria with all sorts of sanctions and embargoes is another one-sided decision by the West, Assad believes.

“Sanctions affect only ordinary people, not the government,” Assad explained.

He said that the world is wide enough not to focus only on the US and Europe.

“We are finding alternatives to overcome these difficulties,” he said. “We have wonderful relations with the greater part of the world, except for the West.”

Not a regime but a form of government

President Assad believes that what Russia and China, who repeatedly expressed their support for Syria and backed the country in the UN Security Council, are in fact supporting is neither the regime (Assad prefers the expression “form of government”) nor Assad as the head of state, but international stability.

Both Russia and China have a good grip on the geopolitical situation in the region and they understand that without their support not only Syria but a lot of its neighbors will plunge into chaos, Assad explained.

“It is not a question of Syria, it is a question of international stability,” Assad said.
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Russia concerned at Kosovo ‘Syrian militant training’ reports
"The training of militants would run counter to the efforts of the UN and Arab League special envoy, which are supported by the entire international community," said Vitaly Churkin, speaking at a session of the Security Council devoted to the situation in Kosovo.

The UN Ambassador went on to warn of the possible global implications of such paramilitary exercises.

"Apart from this, turning Kosovo into an international drilling ground where the militants of paramilitary formations would get training might become a serious destabilizing factor reaching out to places far beyond the boundaries of the Balkans," Churkin said.

Diplomats and media reports said that at least three exiled Syrian activists have been in Kosovo recently for talks with the former Kosovo rebels who fought a separatist war against Serbia in 1998-99, which culminated in NATO unleashing a ferocious, 78-day aerial bombardment (March 24, 1999 to June 10, 1999) on Yugoslavia.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by shyamd »

He is fighting a losing battle... Taking out the intel HQ will throw the ears and eyes off. Next move is Probably a coup at some point down the road. Israel is also reporting defections in the Golan.

If Assef shawkat's assassination is proved true then Asad command and control just took a big hit. This guy is head of important mil divisions, part of the crisis management cell, former head of mil intel.
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Post by Austin »

It is one big propaganda from both side , obviously US/GCC has deeper pockets and BBC/CNN can continue to show what they want to . If Assad really didnt had any support he wouldnt have lasted this long.

Taking out intel building are just terrorist act , wonder how the GCC/US is not complaining of terrorist strike or taking out military targets are just legitimate part of cease fire deal.

For all you know this could be one long drawn out civil war affecting the entire west asia
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by shyamd »

Yes both sides are using propaganda. This is war at the end of the day rather than a revolution. The use of suicide attacks is being done to destroy the Asad tools of control. At the end of the day people who live there want freedom and a bit of dignity.

We fought for independence against the British by attacking British bases/soldiers, technically it was a terrorist attack. Same goes for Irgun, Chinese/Russian revolutions. So same sort of analogy is being used here
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Mahendra »

:eek: Bismillah

Assad in Syria is the same as British in India
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Virupaksha »

and the US, oh democratic and freedom loving, dignified Soudis and UAEs along with secular Turkey will ride in their white horses to save the world against oppression and for freedom :rotfl:

Shyamd ji,

I have absolutely no idea what should be said about your previous post.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by shyamd »

Boss, I have said this is all about Iran and GCC and is a proxy war from day 1. But no one can deny that the Syrians do want freedom or want some form of democracy. That is being denied by Asad. Even the UN has confirmed this fact. But of course west and GCC don't care

As for the analogy - I said that is what the opposition are saying it is. They are saying NATO drops a bomb on a HQ, in the absence of the tools such as fighter planes, car bombs are being used. And it's a military target not a civilian one.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by shyamd »

x post:
satya wrote:Talked with someone somewhere & that's his short reply on what if Iran get hit ( doesn't matter who ) Ramanajee thanks for asking The Question:

There are at least 1000 princes/chieftains/brokers/generals/mullahs/blackhats/jihadis/etc who see this as their big chance & they don't want to miss it & actively pushing for it sometimes for actual confrontation other time mere for preparation but smelling opportunity nonetheless . And no one in ruling circles from ME ready to give more than 50% guarantee that one of these if not all won't make a move that will alter the desired outcome . Forget how Iran will react militarily that's not even a pawn's move ( public consumption : redland vs blueland thing ) but real moves are with these 1000 + pawns how & when they will react . Another thing none of these 1000 + are under influence of Iran but simply see this as their opportunity to gain .

For those who read regularly Nightwatch brief iirc in it was mentioned about a very junior level officer of Mali Army trained in US staging the coup & bringing in chain events starting with Turareg rebels dividing not only Mali for a start but can change/challenge the boundaries of nations left by Colonial powers .

Consider the above scenario for Middle East : 1000 is bare minimum number of such individuals who can potentially alter the course in Middle East in ways no one can predict accurately nor its consequences controlled . So if anything that's stopping those itching for action its this as per my understanding .

As for armed confrontation that's not an issue in real calculations , its for media to be fed among masses.TWIW
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by RamaY »

Mahendra wrote::eek: Bismillah

Assad in Syria is the same as British in India
Especially when the bhreedom bite is subborted by the naya-British, the USA :rotfl:
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by ramana »

Satya and Shaymd, Watch out for the pawns or rather piranhas. I agree its the numerous piranhas that are the problem. The US trained soldier staging a coup in Mali is like the fluttering of wings of the butterfly. A similar event will change the modern Middle East which is also a colonial construct.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by shyamd »

Indeed, its also why they haven't fully developed their military machine and rely a lot on others/mercenaries (TSP, West, Egypt). They keep TSPians there as a coup intervention force. UAE was so scared they bought in a lot of blackwater guys (Erik P is in Apoo Thabi). They thought if NATO could do that in Libya - they are sitting ducks with all the resources they have.

Although my take on the Mali coup is quite different.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by ramana »

Watch for the Yemenis!
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by shyamd »

24th Dec 11
EU & US intelligence met with the higher ranks of the FSA to ask them about locations of NBC weapons. They didn't know too much it seems. Turkey and France are coordinating on Syria. France upping the ante on PKK in France and sending advisors to help in Turkey.
March 25th
Now the focus has shifted to Beijing and Russia to dump Asad - especially Russia as they retain the capability to intervene to prevent a coup. There will be no external intervention (beyond SF operations to achieve certain objectives such as Chemical weapon cache's).
17th May
GCC now provide the intel to the US on Syria!!
U.S., allies accelerating plans to secure chemical arsenal as Syrian crisis worsens

By Joby Warrick, Published: May 19

The Obama administration is accelerating its planning with Middle Eastern allies for a series of potentially fast-moving crises in Syria in the coming months, including the possible loss of government control over some of the country’s scattered stocks of chemical weapons, U.S. and Middle Eastern security officials say.

The planning, involving intelligence and military officials from at least seven countries, includes detailed arrangements for securing chemical arms with special operations troops in the event that parts of Syria are seized by militants, the officials said. Western and regional intelligence officials are increasingly concerned that Islamic extremists could attempt to seize control of whole towns and districts if the country slides into full-scale civil war.

The stepped-up preparations have coincided with increased military training in the region, including an unusually large multinational military exercise underway this month in Jordan, Syria’s southern neighbor. U.S. and Jordanian officials separately have been discussing possible permanent bases in the country for small units of Marines or special operations troops who could be deployed rapidly in a crisis anywhere in the region, from the Syria border to Iraq, according to current and former government officials familiar with the talks.

“There’s a big worry that things could fall apart quickly,” said a former U.S. intelligence official who has been briefed about the contingency plans and spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the diplomatically sensitive preparations. “A big problem can turn up on your doorstep overnight.” (Coup attempt and the post coup problems!)

Western intelligence agencies made similar plans to safeguard chemical munitions in Libya last year during the uprising there, particularly during the chaotic final weeks as Libyan troops deserted their bases ahead of the rebels’ final advance on Tripoli.

The Libyan arsenal, consisting mainly of bulk containers of degraded mustard agent, was deemed less dangerous than Syria’s battlefield-ready stock of more powerful nerve agents. Libya’s chemical weapons depots remained intact during the uprising, though thousands of other weapons of all kinds — from ­rocket-propelled grenades to shoulder-fired antiaircraft missiles — went missing.

While Syria’s arsenal of deadly nerve agents tops the list of worries, the planning group — which has included elements of the CIA and Joint Special Operations Command on the U.S. side — also has sought to map out a response to other emergencies, from pilot-rescue operations to massive refugee flights to border violence as tribes along the Syrian frontier are drawn into skirmishes with government forces or rival groups, the officials said.

“There are contingencies for everything, up to and including taking back a province that has been seized by al-Qaeda,” said a Middle Eastern intelligence official who has participated in the discussions.

While U.S. intelligence officials have conducted their own planning exercises for Syria, the increased coordination began early this year and intensified in recent months. An early advocate, Western diplomats say, was Jordan’s King Abdullah II, whose country has witnessed cross-border shootings in addition to masses of Syrian refugees since the uprising against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad began 14 months ago.

The process evolved into a series of bilateral discussions that grew to include Britain, Turkey, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, according to two Middle Eastern security officials who have participated.

“We drew on the lessons from Libya,” the second Middle Eastern official said. “Some of the countries involved have overlapping air defenses, so on a practical level there has to be coordination.”

The contingency planning for securing Syrian chemical weapons relies on early warning from U.S. spy agencies who have been closely monitoring Assad’s stockpiles for more than a year. Syria possesses one of the world’s largest arsenals of chemical munitions, including tons of nerve gases such as VX and sarin, as well as artillery shells and missile warheads for delivering them.

The weapons are kept in bunkers under heavy guard in at least five sites around the country, weapons experts say. While the stockpiles appear secure at the moment, they could be plundered or simply abandoned if Syria troops are beaten back by increasingly well-armed rebels or by al-Qaeda-allied militants who have been streaming into the country from Iraq in recent weeks, intelligence officials say.

It is against this backdrop that military forces from 19 countries gathered in Jordan last week for a military exercise dubbed Eager Lion 2012. The exercise, focused primarily on special operations and counterinsurgency training, was expected to draw as many as 12,000 troops to the Jordanian desert, making it one of the largest exercises of its kind in the region, Pentagon officials said.

U.S. and Jordanian officials have declined to link the training exercise to the crisis in Syria, a country with which Jordan maintains diplomatic relations. But Pentagon officials involved in the event stressed the importance of “strategic theater cooperation” among special operations troops.

The training “does not target anyone — none of the neighboring or world countries,” Jordanian Armed Forces training chief Major Gen. Awni El-Edwan told reporters.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Philip »

Obama's clarion call for the removal of Assad at the G-8 indicates chaos and mayhem ahead before the US election,as he sees a strategy of projecting himself as the strongman who kicked Islamist butt (OBL,Ghaddaffi,Assad to come next,an attack on Iran too?),as a surefire way in which to get himself re-elected.No matter if the world's economies slide into chaos for a while,as long as this slimeball stays in the house of White.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Austin »

shyamd wrote:At the end of the day people who live there want freedom and a bit of dignity.
And the same sort of dignity will be provided after freedom like in Iraq the thousand die due to suicide attack after US captured Iraq and threw sadam out .....the loss of life is far greater then they ever hard in his era ..... that sort of freedom just helps the terrorist.
We fought for independence against the British by attacking British bases/soldiers, technically it was a terrorist attack. Same goes for Irgun, Chinese/Russian revolutions. So same sort of analogy is being used here
What sort of nonsense logic is fed here , this is clearly a case of using outside terrorist and AL Quida to stage a coup on other wise by and large stable government of Assad , why wasnt the same logic applied in Bahrain when the Shai were protesting against minority sunni government there ? Why bring in GCC Soldiers and Tanks to crush it ? Why not fight for people there for want of freedom and bit of dignity. Why not try something similar in Saudi for the sake of freedom and dignity.

This is just Sunni GCC/US versus Shia Iran/Syria fight for supremacy in the region and geopolitics , has nothing to do with human dignity or democracy those words are just used for the sake of propaganda.
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Post by Austin »

Annan to visit Syria in late May
Special Envoy of the United Nations and the League of Arab States for Syria Kofi Annan will visit Syria in late May, the Syrian Foreign Ministry spokesman microblogged on the Twitter.

He said Annan would discuss the implementation of the peace plan.

Annan’s representative said earlier that Annan might continue the regional tour after having visited Syria.
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Post by Austin »

Possible strike on Iran
Russia is concerned about changing the position of some countries towards a military solution of the situation around Iran, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said.

“We (Russia) are concerned that the opportunity to try to solve the problem by military means is still real. We get signals, public and from private channels that this option is now considered in some capitals as much more applicable to the situation (around Iran) than it was before,” Ryabkov said.

He said that in addition to a “negative effect for the security of many countries” in case of implementation of plans of military solution of the problem there will be “dire consequences for the global economy due to unavoidable increase of prices for hydrocarbons, which will slow exit from recession.” “Russia is not interested in a sudden rise in oil prices,” Ryabkov added.

Russia is interested in the stability of demand to maintain prices at reasonable levels for both suppliers and consumers of energy.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by abhischekcc »

shyamd wrote:Yes both sides are using propaganda. This is war at the end of the day rather than a revolution. The use of suicide attacks is being done to destroy the Asad tools of control. At the end of the day people who live there want freedom and a bit of dignity.

We fought for independence against the British by attacking British bases/soldiers, technically it was a terrorist attack. Same goes for Irgun, Chinese/Russian revolutions. So same sort of analogy is being used here
Shyamd Ji,

With all due respect, I think your comparison of the British-controlled terrorists in Syria with the freedom fighters in India and other places is mischiveous. British were the aggressors in India - the original terrorists. In Syria also, it is the British (and their deluded drones who think they are fighting for a free Syria) that continue to be terrorists.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by shyamd »

Austin ji, the revolution started in March 2011 with unarmed protestors coming on to the street. It was only after September where the military began defecting in large numbers. First aim was to ask Asad to open up to democracy. No response. Next defections increased and they began trying for a coup in order to prevent the country from going into a civil war which actually benefits Asad. So they have been trying to prevent the scenario that you suggest.

Armed attacks and these attacks on intel HQs have started because the coup attempts seem to have failed.

Coming to your point on Iraq. It's false to suggest that Al Qaeda in Iraq are mostly foreign insurgents.
And it's also false to suggest the Syrian revolution is being done mostly by outsiders. Anyway we saw the thousands that came to the streets when the UN observers were in Homs and other places.

"Al Qaeda " in Iraq is a mixture of foreign and local neighbourhood watch types, Baathists etc but mainly tribes from the west of iraq. the tribes in the west of Iraq are the same as in eastern Syria. So hence why we saw the attack in the eastern city as logistics in Iraq was coming from eastern Syria, so those expertise already exist.

The GCC is in open war with Iran and are using it for their own interests, but my point is this won't be successful unless the Syrians fight for their freedom and dignity, which everyone knows they are doing and we can see that by the refugees and the people who take to the streets and those soldiers who have defected (UN spends time with them too).

Speak to Syrians and ask what they think. And yes I do think it could it turn into another Iraq unless a coup succeeds. In fact the nations surrounding Syria are worried if they pump in heavy weapons because those arms would be bought by the Kurds or others and just used against Jordan or Turks, let's not forget chemical weapons
Last edited by shyamd on 21 May 2012 15:39, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by shyamd »

Abhishekcc ji, okay fine, India was occupied by a foreign entity - diff scenario. But, let's Look around - what about Chinese revolution, Russian revolution and the many other revolutions that have taken place? So are those people who fought terrorists too? If Asad was so confident that the people were with him, don't you think he would have opened up his country to democracy or allowed people to protest?
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Post by Austin »

shyamd , if Syrian revolution is such a revolution for democracy as it is claimed then how do these peaceful democratic people get in their hands AK-47 and other small arms to fight to an extent that few cities were in their control for some time before government forces over came it ?

How come peaceful protesters suddenly get small arms in numbers ? How come the same peaceful protesters in Egypt and Bahrain dont seem to find the same AK and small arms in numbers ? Should we also consider the Kashmir people with AK-47 fighting against state of India as peaceful protesters and should involve UN and GCC in resolving it ?

Why did such UN observer didnt go to Bharain and why did GCC troops entered Bahrain in armoured carrier to maintain peace ?

Why is Saudi and Bharain taking so keen interest so much so Saudi top ministers saying arming these protesters was a wonderful idea ?

How come these so called peaceful protesters have the ability to engineer an accurate blast at Intelligence quarters and army establishment.

Its quite obvious this is a case of GCC fishing in troubled waters and a storm in cup is being made into some revolution all with the open and tacit support of GCC , UK and US with the intention to throw Assad out so as to weaken one of Iran key allies and throw Russia out of its only overseas Naval port in Tartus

Assad is just a small part of the game with the over all strategy to weaken Iran and Russia in this game and there is the older Shia Sunni game for geo-strategic interest in Gulf Area with the intention to dominate it.

My point about Iraq is such engineered and forced regime change in the end could end up leading to more blood bath in the country , Also Iraq is a classic case with country was invaded with the false pretext of having Nuclear/Chemical weapons when in the end none was found worst it ended in killing more people in Iraq every day and it still goes on then they could have under Saddams era.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by shyamd »

Austin wrote:shyamd , if Syrian revolution is such a revolution for democracy as it is claimed then how do these peaceful democratic people get in their hands AK-47 and other small arms to fight to an extent that few cities were in their control for some time before government forces over came it ?
Well, if people come out on to the street and get beaten/shot at, stabbed, murdered while they protest then eventually people will look to other means to defend themselves and remove the the govt. By the way, FSA are predominantly defected soldiers - so likelyhood is they have arms that they would take with them. Then also dont forget the raids on police stations and removing arms. then traders selling arms from lebanon/iraq into Syria. As I told you before the syrian tribes were running the smuggling/logistics in Iraq, so weapons arent really the problem.
How come peaceful protesters suddenly get small arms in numbers ? How come the same peaceful protesters in Egypt and Bahrain dont seem to find the same AK and small arms in numbers ? Should we also consider the Kashmir people with AK-47 fighting against state of India as peaceful protesters and should involve UN and GCC in resolving it ?
Key here is borders and also the decision NOT to use arms by protesters. Bahrain had a rebellion back in the 80's/90s were arms/IEDs were used. Today Bahrain has been able to secure their borders pretty well in order to prevent smuggling. Contrast this with Syria - open borders from turkey, lebanon and IRaq and existing supply of guns anyway in the east, Army has defected with their weapons etc so guns are easy to get.

Also, if tomorrow someone gave you a gun and some bullets and say go sheet police/army would you? Probably not. So these people fighting on the ground are not sacrificing their life for fun or because the GCC/US told them to.

US had influence over Mubarak and the military and conducted a coup which basically staved off armed conflict there. IT could have easily happened, arms were very much prevalent in Sinai.

You are making out I am somehow supporting this revolution! I am not! I am telling you how the syrian people see it and merely informing you the facts as to what is happening.
Its quite obvious this is a case of GCC fishing in troubled waters and a storm in cup is being made into some revolution all with the open and tacit support of GCC , UK and US with the intention to throw Assad out so as to weaken one of Iran key allies and throw Russia out of its only overseas Naval port in Tartus
Absolutely! I said this from day 1! but you are ignoring the fact that the majority of the syrian people do not like Asad and his govt and the brutality to which he has ruled! The people fighting on the ground and targetting the HQ's are majority Syrian and if foreigners want to help, then they will use it.

Have a look at what the UN are saying - as soon as the UN turn up, thousands turned on to the streets, as soon as they left, everyone is back into their houses because they know aasad militia etc will target them.
My point about Iraq is such engineered and forced regime change in the end could end up leading to more blood bath in the country , Also Iraq is a classic case with country was invaded with the false pretext of having Nuclear/Chemical weapons when in the end none was found worst it ended in killing more people in Iraq every day and it still goes on then they could have under Saddams era.
Absolutely! But I am highlighting the fact that efforts have been underway to avoid this scenario and believe it or not civil war is the last card that Asad will play because he can make himself into a defender of the Alawites from sunni/salafist aggression. Arms will F up the region and the same countries that are pumping in those arms (it will come back to bite those nations in the ass via the PKK and assorted groups), so everyone is trying to engineer a coup to avoid that scenario for the last 8 months! But if its not working then, they will use tactics like car bombs targetting intel HQs and intel officers to weaken the regime.

I am merely providing you the facts on the ground, please
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Austin »

shyamd wrote:Well, if people come out on to the street and get beaten/shot at, stabbed, murdered while they protest then eventually people will look to other means to defend themselves and remove the the govt. By the way, FSA are predominantly defected soldiers - so likelyhood is they have arms that they would take with them. Then also dont forget the raids on police stations and removing arms. then traders selling arms from lebanon/iraq into Syria. As I told you before the syrian tribes were running the smuggling/logistics in Iraq, so weapons arent really the problem.
People came out on the street in Bahrain too and they were shot and murdered as well , the only difference is these people so called innocent protesters were armed to teeth to an extent they could fight a well trained government soldiers , Innocent people dont carry arms and they are not trained in tactics to fight a soldier.

Give guns to people on street of any country and then see for your self how long can they last , these are no ordinary people but well trained militia and gun man trained to fight in the guise of freedom , these are just terrorist in plain simple words , similar to see you in Kashmir or else where.

If there were such mass defection Asad wouldnt have lasted that long , he would have gone by now ......the fact that he is in power is because most people support him and the Military does too .

Pray tell me can innocent people who protest can engineer and plan sucide bomb attacks on well fortified intelligence HQ and other strategic targets ? Who is funding them and who is arming and training them is the question.

Now check the news of Kosovo link and then link it to Saudi foreign minister statements of it being a wonderful thing to arm them ......does it ring a bell ?

Key here is borders and also the decision NOT to use arms by protesters. Bahrain had a rebellion back in the 80's/90s were arms/IEDs were used. Today Bahrain has been able to secure their borders pretty well in order to prevent smuggling. Contrast this with Syria - open borders from turkey, lebanon and IRaq and existing supply of guns anyway in the east, Army has defected with their weapons etc so guns are easy to get.
Even the best defended and sealed border can you smuggle arms if you have support of hostile intelligence agency , check for our borders in Punjab and Kashmir well manned but they still smuggle arms , check for US borders they still face the same problem or even israel borders the most sophisticated of them all ....... the key is the intention of hostile country towards yours .

The fact is countries of GCC are openly hostile to Syria and they mince no words when they say that look at Saudi minister statements.

How would Saudi feel if Syria or Iran says it would be wonderful to support protesters fighting their own regiem in Shia dominated areas .....wouldnt that constitute open support and interference in sovereign nation internal affairs ?
Also, if tomorrow someone gave you a gun and some bullets and say go sheet police/army would you? Probably not. So these people fighting on the ground are not sacrificing their life for fun or because the GCC/US told them to.
Neither the people on Bahrain or Shia dominated people who were brutally treated were protesting for fun , without gun and small arms they knew what to expect they were more brave in that respect , many of the so called Sryian protestors and freedom fighters still had small arms to fight, defend or attack
You are making out I am somehow supporting this revolution! I am not! I am telling you how the syrian people see it and merely informing you the facts as to what is happening.
I am not but people on BRF are intelligent to see through and make their own informed views on it
Absolutely! I said this from day 1! but you are ignoring the fact that the majority of the syrian people do not like Asad and his govt and the brutality to which he has ruled! The people fighting on the ground and targetting the HQ's are majority Syrian and if foreigners want to help, then they will use it.
Who determines that majority is against Assad , Just because few have arms and can do suicide bombing do their determine the view of majority ?

Pray tell me which government in Arab world have every ruled with holding free and fair elections ? Does Saudi do it , Does Bharain do it .......do people of both countries have a free and fair voice to protest and express their anger .....they meet the same fate as in other gulf states which is clampdown and killings....... in that Assad is no different from them.

If GCC says these are some innocent protesters and people with Arms killing innocent people via car bombs and targeted sucide attacks then by which defination these people are not terrorist ?
Have a look at what the UN are saying - as soon as the UN turn up, thousands turned on to the streets, as soon as they left, everyone is back into their houses because they know aasad militia etc will target them.
Well it is the same UN that said NATO bombing on Libya was a model to follow and it is the same UN that becomes tooth less when US attacks Iraqs in guise of chemical weapons and then find none and US is totally toothless to do any thing about it.

People use UN when its convenient to their cause and can totally disregard it when its not.
i am merely providing you the facts on the ground, please
Yes you are and we in BRF appreciate it ..... but with respect to Syria crises atleast i felt that your input was not totally fair

I repeat what i said before , unless i find something different happening

1 ) The reason these protest are mostly engineered and trained armed by GCC/US/UK is to weaken Iran by destabilisting its major support in the region which is Asad regime , there is nothing freedom fighting and democracy about this protesters , its plain simple geo-politics and Sunnia GCC versus Shia Iran.

2 ) Once Asad is out the Russian will be told to leave Tartus Naval Base with the intention to deny the only overseas port that Russian use presently which gives it a foothold in that region and provide Early Warning and Intelligence to friendly countries in the region.

Beyond that its merely propaganda via BBC/CNN to forward its cause.
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