Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 29th May 2012

[SSridhar]

Pakis want to turn around/save their economy is a myth. Neither they have shown any kind of will power over the decades, nor the necessary capability. Their governor of State Bank of Pakistan once said something like "printing money does not contribute to inflation"! Anyway, the point is almost every profit they make, every paisa they save eventually be used against us.

I think we have to clearly understand the 'trade moves' by Pakistan vis-a-vis India. Kayani made it very clear when the Indian Commerce Minister went to Islamabad for the talks last year. He said that Pakistan would not compromise its honour for trade. And, where does Pakistan's honour lie ? It lies *only* in the destruction of India. So, Kayani set the limits for trade with India. What are the limits ? The limits are that Pakistan must trade with India in such a way that its economy barely survives (otherwise there could be massive riots, PA may not get enough funds and Zardari & cohorts will not get their cuts) but at the same time not to tie down Pakistan in such a way that India could leverage its trade relationship to punish Pakistan if & when such a situation arises. The Americans are pressurizing the Pakistanis (as much as the Indians) for trade normalization. The incumbent Indian leadership sees an opportunity in normalizing relationship through trade here while the Pakistanis simply want to fend off American pressure and get enough benefits from a massive neighbour just to keep themselves afloat as generous aid from the 3½ dry up. In the Pakistani scheme of things, economy always had a lower priority than attacking the enemy kafir Hindu and that remains unchanged. All that Pakistan needs are arms to fight India and aid to loot by Generals, politicians & bureaucrats and the left-over to keep the economy barely survive. The PA doctrine is based not on Indian threat but Indian capability. Thus, the PA has ensured that there would be no room for normalization. Therefore, the enduring hostility with India will be maintained by Pakistan on two fronts, religious and military while the economic front can be suitably manipulated to keep themselves alive for another day to fight the only enemy.

[amit]

For example, the Diesel/Petrol supply is a Chunkian move. Army needs petrol/diesel to fight (In fact one of the reason why Pakis down-hill skiied in Kargil was Indian Navy's threat to blockade Karachi and they had fuel to fight for 3 or 7 days or whatever). If they depend on us (and not the gelf, who have their own agenda), they will be that bit reluctant to get into another Kargil.

+100

This is precisely my point but better said. I can understand the reflexive anti-business contacts with the Pakistanis mentality prevalent here, believe me I feel the same. But if you take a moment to think about it dispassionately you'd notice the "business contacts/relationship" is not a homogeneous construct, rather it has several layers to it.

For example, giving them rail engines or any other such stuff is a dole pure and simple and should be opposed vehemently. Selling them potatoes, onions and what not should occur only when there's a surplus crop in India and its a case of the stuff rotting or being sold. Cotton is an absolute No.

However, something like this refined petro products case seems to be just right. Think about it, Pakistan now buys from GCC and this is something it will need no matter what, even they decide to eat grass. If the supply can be sourced from India with long term contracts, that earns Indian refiners money and starts a dangerous dependency - its not easy to switch around suppliers. And it gives India access to some of the $$$ which the 3.5 friends give to the Pakistanis. Surely there's some merit in that? As long as the stuff is sold at rates which make it profitable for the Indian refiner, who cares if the Pakis save some money? That's not going to make their economy stable, heck it will make them more reckless if they think that their Rupee will go one more day. If they were to turn into a sane nation with a stable economy, they didn't/don't need India for that. The 3.5 have been trying to get them stable for decades with more money than anything the Pakis can save from trade with India? Look what's happened.

Will GOI's moves yield immediate effect like Professor Saheb's conviction or them ceasing to print fake Indian currency? Probably not. Will it save bigger headaches associated with 200 Million Yahoos (or 200 million Proxitutes) at our border? Maybe.

This is correct the cost:benefit ratio is not a all or nothing kind of equation. Is this the right way to go? Who knows but unless we try its more of the status quo.

We need to think about this.

I fully agree and we need to watch out for over enthusiasm from WKK stakeholder on our side. They shouldn't be allowed to go overboard, the idea should be economic engagement as a means to an end and not the end in itself. Will GoI be able to pull this off? Who knows and it certainly doesn't inspire confidence but that does not mean we should think of selling refined petro to the Pakis as a form of zaziya.

JMT

[Aditya_V]

Amit, What if Pakis do what they normally do, use the trading barrels for 3 months credit, but never pay a Naiya Paisa, claim it as a right that we should supply them free and write off the amount dues, WKK brigade claims it is thier right to do so and the Indian Tax payer foots the bill.

I would not put it past the Indian leaders that this treaty becomes a Indus Water type treaty where we need to supply them cheap oil on liberal credit terms no matter what our requirements are.

Meanwhile, this will free up thier finances to buy wartime reserves from GCC and weapons from elsewhere.

Pakis will never pay upfront for these and we will never have the guts to abrutly stop supplies.

I am seeing only a lose lose situation.

How can we even think of doing business with a country prints our fake currency and distributes it through it diplomats???
This is like one of seats SEBI's board be given to Harshad Mehta (when he was alive) or Ketan Pareikh.

[Sanku]

I am increasingly of the opinion that GOI is acting rationally. Vis-a-vis Pakistan we have 3 choices

1. Let the Pakis fail, and have a huge headache of refugees, warlords, nuclear armed dictators and yahoos in our border.
2. Let the Pakis semi-fail, Proxitute themselves to US/China whatever and Let US/China have a foothold in our neighbourhood and mess with India.
3. Run Pakistan as a "troubled Indian province" (for all practical purposes).

Well in reality Pakistan is already 2 + 1 today. So the question is not of 3 choices but essentially --> what is the way forward from the current scenario.

Do you really think that Pakistan can be moved from 1 + 2 --> 3? Practically? It might be a good exercise to dangle a bait to see which fish leap out greedily. However beyond a "smoke them out exercise" this thought experiment is doomed even before it starts, as you well know I am sure.

There is as of now no hope what so ever that Pakistan can remotely work like a troubled Indian province --> an Indian province ensure control of land, people and to an extent ideology.

Can Pakistan ever promise us any of these? Forget oil, Pakistan cant and wont do that even if Man mohan, whom they seem to love greatly, himself relocates (although it might be a great advantage for India )

[Sanku]

Meanwhile, Man mohan probably does not loose sleep over incidents like this

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/pak-v ... ng/956064/

Pak violates ceasefire again, BSF constable injured in firing

What next after supplying POL to Paki army? Supplying them weapons and ammunition in the hope they will be dependent on us?

[Sanku]

If the supply can be sourced from India with long term contracts, that earns Indian refiners money and starts a dangerous dependency - its not easy to switch around suppliers. And it gives India access to some of the $$$ which the 3.5 friends give to the Pakistanis. Surely there's some merit in that? As long as the stuff is sold at rates which make it profitable for the Indian refiner, who cares if the Pakis save some money?

Repeating a lie multiple times does not make it true.

Its not easy to switch suppliers for POL with all the worlds supply of POL on your western borders? Wah ji wah.

The supplier who has invested CAPITAL to serve a SINGLE customer is not dependent, but the BUYER who has MULTIPLE options to purchase from is.

What blatant rape of basics of economy.

[amit]

Meanwhile, Man mohan probably does not loose sleep over incidents like this

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/pak-v ... ng/956064/

Pak violates ceasefire again, BSF constable injured in firing

What next after supplying POL to Paki army? Supplying them weapons and ammunition in the hope they will be dependent on us?

Maybe its just me and my old fashioned sense of sensibility but I find it detestable that a rotfl can be used with a link which talks about a BSF jawan being injured in firing.

The point could have been made without the similey

[amit]

What blatant rape of basics of economy.

I think you meant economics and not economy. If I may be so bold to say, Sanku ji you need to keep a watch on your blood pressure!

Regarding basics of economics or economy and the graphic details of the rape (presented as forensic evidence), one is always waiting to be enlightened. The wait can be long but its worth the time spent in terms of the entertainment quotient that one is rewarded with as we've seen repeatedly in the Nook dhaga and the Armoured Vehicles dhaga among other places.

[Lilo]

.... WKK brigade claims it is thier right to do so and the Indian Tax payer foots the bill.

Aditya ji,
Thats a highly unfounded fear - there are great many reasons that it wont come to, ever. Refer this post for details

There is little risk in petrochemical trade for the supplier - since petrochemicals are consumables in high demand every where in the world (including the huge market inside india itself) and new consumers are not hard to find, in case of any paki mischeif. This too has already been said.

Amitji, i think with regard to this deal of petroproducts from bhatinda refinery, GOI is more or less set in its thinking. Even at the first look itself there are too many economic positives to ignore. Considering that this refinery is ultimately state run, GOI can easily coerce it to calibrate to its response and cut supplies or absorb any excess capacity into the internal indian market in an emergency.

But on the larger issue of trade...everything is again and again boiling down to the questions of

>Does trade with pakistan give some sort of marginal benefit to pakees ..?
>Is the benefit accruing to India in such a trade "large enough" to justify such an accrual of marginal benefit to pakis ?,
>Is the said marginal benefit expected to accrue to pakees large enough to stabilize their economy in the long run and prevent an impending implosion?
>If this is the case should we completely avoid trade with pakees or should we calibrate our trade to not to give any productive push to pakistan's economy?
>Is such a calibration possible ?
>Will it go out of control and will short term mercantile interests begin to dominate over long term strategic interests.. ?

Unless answers are found for these deep seated insecurities, the peripheral issues will keep popping up .
But these questions are all mostly related to prediction of events into future, a future frought with many uncertanities.
And its quite difficult to prove or disprove contentions based on predictions which are yet to come to pass.

Now i only wish i had Sankuji's powers to blindly cut these questions like a gordian knot and come at a yay or nay answer in a jiffy...

[amit]

Amit, What if Pakis do what they normally do, use the trading barrels for 3 months credit, but never pay a Naiya Paisa, claim it as a right that we should supply them free and write off the amount dues, WKK brigade claims it is thier right to do so and the Indian Tax payer foots the bill.

I would not put it past the Indian leaders that this treaty becomes a Indus Water type treaty where we need to supply them cheap oil on liberal credit terms no matter what our requirements are.

Meanwhile, this will free up thier finances to buy wartime reserves from GCC and weapons from elsewhere.

Pakis will never pay upfront for these and we will never have the guts to abrutly stop supplies.

I am seeing only a lose lose situation.

How can we even think of doing business with a country prints our fake currency and distributes it through it diplomats???
This is like one of seats SEBI's board be given to Harshad Mehta (when he was alive) or Ketan Pareikh.

Boss,

That's one way of looking at it I admit. However, the other way to look at it is that India has 250 million tons of refining capacity and whatever the Pakis can take is a fraction of that amount. And the Pakis can do that trick only once. Do you think, honestly, if they do that they will be able to buy on credit from any supplier in the world? There are only a few refined petro vendors.

But all this is moot, as I wrote before I very much doubt the Pakis themselves would get into this kind of dependency.

[amit]

>Does trade with pakistan give it some sort of marginal benefit tp pakees ..?
>Is the benefit accruing to India in such a trade "large enough" to justify such an accrual of marginal benefit to pakis ?,
>Is the said marginal benefit expected to accrue to pakees large enough to stabilize their economy in the long run and prevent an impending implosion?
>If this is the case should we completely avoid trade with pakees or should we calibrate our trade to not to give any productive push to pakistan's economy?
>Is such a calibration possible ?
>Will it go out of control and will short term mercantile interests begin to dominate over long term strategic interests.. ?

Lio,

My personal thinking on this is that the Pakis cannot grow rich by importing stuff from us. Contrary to the general impression here, IMO, they have to pay for what they buy otherwise they'll be ostracised from international trade, especially in products like refined petro products. Its not that simple to default on payments and get away with it.

The way the Pakis can make money is if it can sell valued added goods and services to India. But then they have very little industrial capacity to do that. IMO, if India wants to use trade as a political tool then we should avoid such things, for example their proposal to sell naphtha to us as was written in original BS story. If we buy vegetables and other primary goods, that only provides them with marginal level economic benefit and they remain the dirt poor turd world country they are. And yet there's would be pressure group of businessmen who benefit from such export to India.

Your point about it getting out of control is the real fear. Thinks like the rail engines are the things which should raise red flags, not refined petro supplies on long term fixed price contracts.

JMT and other disclaimers.

[Sanku]

Meanwhile, Man mohan probably does not loose sleep over incidents like this

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/pak-v ... ng/956064/

Pak violates ceasefire again, BSF constable injured in firing

What next after supplying POL to Paki army? Supplying them weapons and ammunition in the hope they will be dependent on us?

Maybe its just me and my old fashioned sense of sensibility but I find it detestable that a rotfl can be used with a link which talks about a BSF jawan being injured in firing.

The point could have been made without the similey

I am amazed your sensitivities is triggered by the smiley while preaching for measures to increase such incidents.

Interesting sensitivities. Form over content?

[Sanku]

This too has already been said.

And those assertions have also been shown to be wrong multiple times.

Why then repeat the same things which have been shown to simply incorrect?

I am a little surprise at the avidity at which people keep repeating "earth is flat"

[Sanku]

Your point about it getting out of control is the real fear. Thinks like the rail engines are the things which should raise red flags, not refined petro supplies on long term fixed price contracts.

JMT and other disclaimers.

And these long term contracts will be guaranteed by Amit-ji himself. With his sterling reputation and unimpeachable integrity.

Nothing can go wrong in long term with Pakistan. Amit-ji's word for this. (of course that things go wrong on daily basis is hardly germane to the topic, as is the past and current behavior, because Amit ji has said it, it is)

[amit]

I am amazed your sensitivities is triggered by the smiley while preaching for measures to increase such incidents.

Interesting sensitivities. Form over content?

Sanku,

You're just out of a ban - I believe your third - so I'm not going to prolong this.

But if you are suggesting that I'm "preaching for measures" to increase more cross border firings on our jawans by getting into a hypothetical discussion on whether its wise for India to become Pakistan's sole supplier of refined petro products, then it just shows your warped thinking and convoluted mentality.

Well never mind. Sigh!

Carry on, I'm sure there's some benefit from your harangue which masquerades as "informed discussion".

[Sanku]

I am amazed your sensitivities is triggered by the smiley while preaching for measures to increase such incidents.

Interesting sensitivities. Form over content?

Sanku,

You're just out of a ban - I believe your third - so I'm not going to prolong this.

Ah expected threat after getting exposed.

Supplying CHEAP POL to Pakistani's is going to improve their Military efficiency and hence further attacks on Indians.

So there is direct correlation of helping Pakistan in anyway and Indian security.

This has been seen in the past and is seen today, in numerous fields like visas (regularly abused by pakis to send terrorists), train services (which has been turned into fake currency note expresses), track II diplomacy (which is a method by ISI to fatten Indian bakara throug Fai et al)

So yes, clearly helping TSPA get more POL and that too at cheap rates == more dead and injured Indians.

It is obvious to nearly every one here too.

[jamwal]

Our problem with TSP is not another war which can be slightly or dubiously discouraged by increasing their dependency on us. What we need to watch out for is attacks by their so called non-state actors, for which they can and have been denying any involvement. Even Kargil operation was launched by non-state actors. Onlee difference was that they were called mujahideen'. We have absloutely no incentive to increase their dependency on us..
THis call for oil products, electricity, railway locomotives is just jaziya, nothing more.
As many posters have mentioned it already, they simply don't have the money and if even the beggars can scrape together some dollars, India will be the last destination for it.
Just look at what happened to cross-border trade with their Kashmiri birathers. They've showed their inner Pakiness to their Ummah brothers too by large scale cheating and thievery.
There shouldn't be any move to increase commerce/cultural/sports relations with Pakistan as long as it continues to exist in it's current genocidal Islamic form.

[Lilo]

My personal thinking on this is that the Pakis cannot grow rich by importing stuff from us.

Yes, i too feel its quite a valid contention. The colonial experience is a good example.
The bullion out flow from Indian market because of British having cornered the trade in consumables ( textiles, luxury items etc) is already well documented.

Pakis get their Forex from 3.5 doles , remmitances and their exports of textiles. If india corners the petrochemical market in pakistan with the backing of a few GCC states - the trickle of dollars from pakees will in no time be a stream and that will be nice.

[Sanku]

Pakis get their Forex from 3.5 doles , remmitances and their exports of textiles. If india corners the petrochemical market in pakistan with the backing of a few GCC states - the trickle of dollars from pakees will in no time be a stream and that will be nice.

At least you acknowledge that GCC's "daya" is also needed for us to work in Pakistan. (Sure GCC/Saudi will give dole to Paki's to help us buy from them)

Some way of creating dependency.

(Actually a very nasty subterfuge to force India to depend on both GCC and Pakistan at two ends for business)

[Altair]

All the geniuses here subscribing to bankroll Pakis to supply POLs, I have a suggestion. Find a Paki, or I will find one for you and Please loan Rs.1000/- to him and he will pay you back. I am NOT a guaranteer. Lets see how many of the geniuses will take money out of pockets.
Jokers!

[Lilo]

All the geniuses here subscribing to bankroll Pakis to supply POLs, I have a suggestion. Find a Paki, or I will find one for you and Please loan Rs.1000/- to him and he will pay you back. I am NOT a guaranteer. Lets see how many of the geniuses will take money out of pockets.
Jokers!

Altair Mahoday, where has any one talked about bankrolling pakees? show it or eat your words.

[Hari Seldon]

Next thing we know pakis will propose a rupee trade agreement (with fawning WKKs inside and outside GoI providing the merry violin backdrop) and seek to pay us for our refined petro exports in FICN onlee...win win from their POV, am sure...

[Aditya_V]

Amit Ji, Since when has the rest of the world cared about what Promises Paki have reneged with respect to India. The y have reneged many times on promises to others and IMF has written off thier loans. So I see them not paying us for POL and asking for a write off in future. GCC will still continue to supply them oil. THis will only but them time to save a few Billion and improve thier finances at out cost.

[SSridhar]

Pakistan test-fires stealth cruise missile

India and Pakistan — which have fought three wars since independence from Britain in 1947 — have routinely carried out missile tests since both demonstrated nuclear weapons capability in 1998.

Pakistan’s arsenal includes short-, medium- and long-range missiles.

The neighbours were on the brink of nuclear conflict in 2002 over the disputed territory of Kashmir, but a slow-moving peace dialogue resumed last March after a three-year suspension following the November 2008 Mumbai attacks.

[Lilo]

At least you acknowledge that GCC's "daya" is also needed for us to work in Pakistan.

Some way of creating dependency.

(Actually a very nasty subterfuge to force India to depend on both GCC and Pakistan at two ends for business)

Sankuji,

What you call GCC "daya" has already been stated by me here. No wonder you who are so quick to cast aspersions on motives of the opposing viewpoint had completely missed it. Before getting hyper and jumping the gun - please try to read what others had written with a clear mind.

Coming back to the point,
There is a recalibration going on between India GCC ties - its clear to anyone following westasia thread.
In this context , Saudi aramco has already picked up stakes in hpcl refineries at vizag and paradwip... It also wanted to pick a stake in bhatinda. So if GCC itself pushes Pakis to adopt Indian sources what chance does pakistan has apart from paying up?

[Lalmohan]

in the absence of american aid, where is pakistan going to get $'s from to buy petrochems?

[ArmenT]

Accepting payment in Paki rupees or Indian rupees is a bad idea since they will simply fire up their printing presses. Don't know if they've learned to clone dollars yet, but wouldn't be surprised if they did. Also if it is an EFT transfer from a Paki bank, they've been known to manufacture dollars out of thin air (as seen by the BCCI bank shenanigans). Only way to guarantee the dollars are good is if their IMF loan is directly routed to an Indian bank instead of going via Pakistan.

Another option is to accept payment in gold bars or in exchange for goods and services from Pakland. Which brings up a big question in my mind. What goods and services can Pakistan offer in exchange that India needs? (Needs, as in needs on a regular basis, not goods to cover temporary shortages)? Their textile industry doesn't make anything unique that India doesn't also manufacture (and their textile industry is going downhill anyway and can't compete with Indian mills). Food doesn't fit as goods that India needs to import on a permanent basis. So far, India has only imported onions, tomatoes etc. from Pakland ONLY when there was a temporary shortage of those items in India and not on a regular basis. Plus, the cost of common food items in Pakland (such as wheat, rice etc.) are generally more than the same food items in India and they are probably more in need of Indian food items anyway. Cement might be exported by the Pakis, as their prices are cheaper, but there are questions about their cement quality. And the reason that cement prices in India are higher is mainly because of supply and demand reasons. As for Paki services, don't know what kind of services they can offer that is not already there in India.

So what can India get in exchange for exporting petrol, wheat, railway engines etc.?

[Sanku]

At least you acknowledge that GCC's "daya" is also needed for us to work in Pakistan.

Some way of creating dependency.

(Actually a very nasty subterfuge to force India to depend on both GCC and Pakistan at two ends for business)

Sankuji,

What you call GCC "daya" has already been stated by me here. No wonder you who are so quick to cast aspersions on motives of the opposing viewpoint had completely missed it. Before getting hyper and jumping the gun - please try to read what others had written with a clear mind.

"Daya" Sir, is in the end. Daya. That is the fact of the matter. So instead of this being a Indian initiative (thank god for tender mercies?) -- this is now turning into a GCC initiative.

The question then is, why should India be a part of GCC strategic merry making? Do our priorities align? Does it make sense for India to be carrying water for GCC in their quest to help Pakistan with cheaper oil?

So at least all this churning has had one good point -- this is now exposed as a GCC plan (you can chose to call it recalibration) -- something I did not understand when I read a article about GoI falling all over itself to help Pakistan screw us further.

With GCC coming in, picture is clearer -- this is the continuing US-Saudi imitative to turn India to its little vassal. Makes more sense now.

[Neela]

Pakis ain't dud heads. To think that they will make their strategic/jihadi oil reserves reliant on Indian supplies is naivety .
And you cannot views TSP as one entity when supplying oil to them. You are supplying oil to a one loony rowdy in a street full of loony rowdies*.

* I call them rowdies because they terrorize the un-armed. In a real fight, these rowdies will cower like mongrels.

[Sanku]

in the absence of american aid, where is pakistan going to get $'s from to buy petrochems?

Lalmohan ji, w.r.t. to Lilo's last post, this appears to be a cog in the grand plans of US. (screwing Iran, helping Pakistan without spending money by getting Indians do their dirty work and not squeal when they are kicked etc)

Much clearer now. Also explains why the usual suspects are so enthusiastic.

[abhijitm]

I am increasingly of the opinion that GOI is acting rationally. Vis-a-vis Pakistan we have 3 choices

1. Let the Pakis fail, and have a huge headache of refugees, warlords, nuclear armed dictators and yahoos in our border.
2. Let the Pakis semi-fail, Proxitute themselves to US/China whatever and Let US/China have a foothold in our neighbourhood and mess with India.
3. Run Pakistan as a "troubled Indian province" (for all practical purposes).

1. Though we all yearn to see the bold state of pakistan to happen, the fact is pakistan is far away from going down as a failed economy. Its growth is stagnant but the economy has not failed like Somalia. Also, there is no (wide) food starvation, no epidemic. If we look at the economy of pakistan as only economy of Sindh and Punjab provinces then the picture is even better. After all who gives a hoot about Balochistan, khyber pakhtunkhwa and FATA. Yes in comparison with other economies they are suffering a lot but not as much as a failed economy. There is no sign of paki economy going down in drain very soon. Hence there is no reason for GoI to worry on that front. And as for warlords, nuke armed dictators and yahoos, they are our headache even before independence.

2. Yes, semi-fail, may be thats appropriate. What you describe in (2) is what pakistan is and will be. Thats their state policy and I don't see any gesture from India is going to change that.

3. Putting our hand in a mess where we don't have any influence on their internal matters will not help us. We will be like giving hafta.

For example, the Diesel/Petrol supply is a Chunkian move. Army needs petrol/diesel to fight (In fact one of the reason why Pakis down-hill skiied in Kargil was Indian Navy's threat to blockade Karachi and they had fuel to fight for 3 or 7 days or whatever). If they depend on us (and not the gelf, who have their own agenda), they will be that bit reluctant to get into another Kargil.

In the context of a war whether we give them oil or not, doesn't matter. They anyway don't have enough reserve of fuel to go on for weeks. Even in that reality they embarked upon the Kargil adventure. Our trade with them will not change this situation. On the other hand if we help them in saving money by one mean or another then that money will go into improving their deterrence within that period of conflict/war, or funding jihadis against us.

We, all Indians, must realize that pakistan is a contagious disease and we are not the doctor. The best we should do is to stay two yards away from them.

[krishnan]

They will just stock up for a kargil type misadventure

[Lilo]

in the absence of american aid, where is pakistan going to get $'s from to buy petrochems?

LM ji,
Its not clear on what the final arrangement will be here. Saudia and kuvait both supply petrochems to pakis at reduced prices. But now pakis were unable to pay even that and are in heavy debt so much so that both Saudis and kuwaitis have not renewed their longterm contracts with pakis in the current year. Indians will be willing to pass on the transport cost differential back to GCCs and they will be to that extent unburdened of their munna while still retaining pakis on indirect dole by supplying crude to indian refineries at subsidized cost to the extent it is earmarked for pakis .

But either case i think pakis will get money one way or the other from their 3.5 friends - and they will pay in full measure for our service of value addition in our refineries. The thing is they just cant go back to donkey and camel carts inspite of their great love for them.

In the meantime we can expect unkil to do the usual tricks of sanctioning new IMF loans , mafiying old ones - just enough to keep their munna afloat. Till now india didnt get a share in this pie and pakis hogged it all. Now it will be nice if part of this assistance is routed through us and only we are not asked to contibute for it.

Regarding the question of paki commodities of interest to India - long staple cotton which is not sufficent in india should be cornered while making all possible effort to cripple their textile sector .

Apart from above Potatoes, Onions and wheat (though they may piss in it ) in cases of our bad monsoon can be looked into. In last two years wheat had a bumper crop in india so much so that we are building new granaries all over punjab and the countries largest one with 4 million tonne capacity recently opened in punjab - but this will wont be the case always .

Basically India should mainly look into importing commodities and never finished goods from pakistan. Our trade should have colonial characteristics to the extent possible.

[RajeshA]

Another option is to accept payment in gold bars or in exchange for goods and services from Pakland.
...
So what can India get in exchange for exporting petrol, wheat, railway engines etc.?

How about Pakeezahs?

[Lilo]

"Daya" Sir, is in the end. Daya. That is the fact of the matter. So instead of this being a Indian initiative (thank god for tender mercies?) -- this is now turning into a GCC initiative.

The question then is, why should India be a part of GCC strategic merry making? Do our priorities align? Does it make sense for India to be carrying water for GCC in their quest to help Pakistan with cheaper oil?

So at least all this churning has had one good point -- this is now exposed as a GCC plan (you can chose to call it recalibration) -- something I did not understand when I read a article about GoI falling all over itself to help Pakistan screw us further.

With GCC coming in, picture is clearer -- this is the continuing US-Saudi imitative to turn India to its little vassal. Makes more sense now.

Sankuji,
Sorry that it came as a big shock to you and you realized just now,
This was the plan all along and most keen posters of BRF may have already known about this.
But I dont care whose plan this is as long as it places pipelines and their taps supplying essential commodities to pak in indian hands.

Iam not sure about the India suddenly being a saudi and US vassal though - it sounds more like a figment of your fertile imagination

[Virupaksha]

Lilo,

So you yourselves agree that Pakistan is in no position to give timely payments to the petroleum delivered. So it is not a clean payment model, there are so many ifs and buts with a huge chance that Pakistan may not even properly pay us.

So wtf should we take on this added risk? How the hell do your statements make sense from trade perspective?

Is the demand so low that we cannot absorb that part of petroleum?

I have to start questioning your judgement or intent.

Regarding your last ones, the colonial model clearly showed that model can exist only and only if there is a huge market under your direct political control. The immediate and fatal collapse of that model after 1947 gives a large attestations to my theory as opposed to yours.

If you want to bring Pakistan under direct political control of India and then later impose your colonial model on them, I approve the first one but will oppose the second part.

[Virupaksha]

But I dont care whose plan this is as long as it places pipelines and their taps supplying essential commodities to pak in indian hands.

Why do we need to take those taps under direct control & pay for the attendant daily Pakistan nonsense show - as long we retain the ability to switch it off at the needed critical times

[Lilo]

Lilo,
So you yourselves agree that Pakistan is in no position to give timely payments to the petroleum delivered. So it is not a clean payment model, there are so many ifs and buts with a huge chance that Pakistan may not even properly pay us.

So wtf should we take on this added risk? How the hell do your statements make sense from trade perspective?

Vji,
There is a big risk only if we suddenly wantend to add great additional capacity for sake of pakis - but obviously that wont be the case.
Take the case of Bhatinda refinery the initial capacity was some 9 million tonnes - then because of paki feelers it was ramped up by 1million tonnes to 10 million tonnes. If things pan out with pakis in the long term it will be further ramped up to a total of 18 million tonnes.

The current installed capacity in india is touching 200 million tonnes.

So you can see the size of the markets indian refineries originally cater to and the current risk taken for raising by 1 million tonne in bhatinda could be easily absorbed in our current markets.

So every thing will be gradual based on paki behaviour.

Further the paki petrochem market is USD 10 billion in 2011. India exported 32 Billion USD worth in 2011 (which was roughly 1/4 th equivalent to the installed capacity - so indian petrochemical industry gave out an output equal to 32*4=128 Billion USD worth in 2011) .

If paki's decide to import then it cannot touch 2-3 Billion USD in 3 years. And then if they suddenly decide to not to import and use donkeys carts.. Not much of a risk for us.
But all the while its one heck of a leverage for us, b/c suddenly 30% of petrochems being used by pakis have become India sourced.

[Aditya_V]

Lilo-> all fine as long we have a security deposit International Bank guarantees etc. We should have the right to cut off supply and We should ensure no freebees to Pakis.

[Sanku]

Lilo-> all fine as long we have a security deposit International Bank guarantees etc. We should have the right to cut off supply and We should ensure no freebees to Pakis.

If we cut off oil supplies after investing in creating a infrastructure to serve Paki needs, we loose there.

What do Paki's loose, if GCC dumps us tomorrow for their ummah brothers and restarts direct sales to Paki;s again?

We have ZERO leverage in this situation, and Paki's will just enjoy all the hard work we put in (also remember the opportunity cost of using the safe effort elsewhere) use our work to get fat and stab us once more laughingly as they do so.

This is primarily being done on GCC ishara it seems (in turn on US ishara)