Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 29th May 2012

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 31 May 2012 15:35

Aditya_V wrote:Lilo-> all fine as long we have a security deposit International Bank guarantees etc. We should have the right to cut off supply and We should ensure no freebees to Pakis.

The last thing must be our most important focus Adityaji, as with all deals with the devil - 3.5 fliends will not pressure us to contribute in the initial stages but later there may be pressure to contribute - that should be staved off categorically - saying paki is your munna - you pay for it.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 31 May 2012 15:37

Lilo wrote: But I dont care whose plan this is as long as it places pipelines and their taps supplying essential commodities to pak in indian hands.

Seriously what are you smoking.

What ever gives you this remote illusion that we have any leverage.

The GCC caliberation has been discussed for long in West Asia thread, with ShyamD bravely holding the front for the stuff happening there.

So just because we know that things are being effed up does that mean we should celebrate it and not call a deep stupidity, stupidity?

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 31 May 2012 15:39

Sanku wrote:
Aditya_V wrote:Lilo-> all fine as long we have a security deposit International Bank guarantees etc. We should have the right to cut off supply and We should ensure no freebees to Pakis.
If we cut off oil supplies after investing in creating a infrastructure to serve Paki needs, we loose there.

What do Paki's loose, if GCC dumps us tomorrow for their ummah brothers and restarts direct sales to Paki;s again?

We have ZERO leverage in this situation, and Paki's will just enjoy all the hard work we put in (also remember the opportunity cost of using the safe effort elsewhere) use our work to get fat and stab us once more laughingly as they do so.

This is primarily being done on GCC ishara it seems (in turn on US ishara)

Sankuji ,
why did GCC come up with this initiative in the first place hain ?
Please think for a while.
.
.
.
.
.
They were tired of pak being their munna - they wanted to reduce their burden by saving on the transport cost differential. And most probably also to shift paki supplies from their older refineries which are mostly based on costlier sweeter grades of crude to cheaper and more abundant but difficult to process high sulphur crude which india specializes in refining.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 31 May 2012 15:41

Lilo wrote:
Aditya_V wrote:Lilo-> all fine as long we have a security deposit International Bank guarantees etc. We should have the right to cut off supply and We should ensure no freebees to Pakis.
The last thing must be our most important focus Adityaji, as with all deals with the devil - 3.5 fliends will not pressure us to contribute in the initial stages but later there may be pressure to contribute - that should be staved off categorically - saying paki is your munna - you pay for it.

You still dont realize that by supplinig POL to Pakistan India is being a water carrier for the 2 of the 3 1/2 do you.

You contradict yourself in every post yet merrily go about non stop

1) Indians will squeeze Pakistan in case of issues vs Oh Pakistan is not a issues (despite 26/11 etc) let us go out of our way for them

2) We will stave off 3 1/2 in future -- this plan need active support of GCC.

3) Pakistani will pay us money -- Paki's are dying and have no money hence will depend on us if bail them out.

Man. Lilo. Stop take a deep breath.

Do you even realize what are you doing here.

Altair · Post by **Altair** » 31 May 2012 15:42

Lilo
I am not taking your bait. I can see where this would end. I suggest you cease this line of discussion to avoid further embarrassment. This is my last post on this issue with you.
Altair

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 31 May 2012 15:42

Lilo wrote: Sankuji
why did GCC come up with this initiative in the first place hain ?
Please think for a while.
.

No babes, you need to think about it. And many other things. You dont realize that you contradict yourself in every line and twice in a paragraph.

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 31 May 2012 15:50

Sanku wrote: No babes, you need to think about it. And many other things. You dont realize that you contradict yourself in every line and twice in a paragraph.

No i dont contradict myself Sankuji ...
i try to bring out a balance

I wish to touch on all sides of the matter - not just push my viewpoint by hook or crook and somehow win at .
Iam sure this is something alien to your type of emotion based onesided arguing.

But my reason is not winning - but to make people to appreciate all sides better.
If we havent given a counterpoint - blind suspicion would have resulted in a completely onesided putdown of Indo-paki petro trade by, you for example.
I have my purpose.

Edit : Later add - why is Altair threatening me ?

Altair wrote:Lilo
I am not taking your bait. I can see where this would end. I suggest you cease this line of discussion to avoid further embarrassment. This is my last post on this issue with you.
Altair

Lilo wrote:
Altair wrote:All the geniuses here subscribing to bankroll Pakis to supply POLs, I have a suggestion. Find a Paki, or I will find one for you and Please loan Rs.1000/- to him and he will pay you back. I am NOT a guaranteer. Lets see how many of the geniuses will take money out of pockets.
Jokers!

Altair Mahoday, where has any one talked about bankrolling pakees? show it or eat your words.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 31 May 2012 15:55

Lilo wrote:
Sanku wrote: No babes, you need to think about it. And many other things. You dont realize that you contradict yourself in every line and twice in a paragraph.
No i dont contradict myself Sankuji ...
i try to bring out a balance

There IS no balance, this more like "take ser khaja take se bhaji" -- the greatest inequality is to make unequal things equal.

When there is no balance, to claim balance by artificially creating data points which are not true is not called balancing. It is called obfuscation and smoke screen.

Lets cut through the chase and call a spade a spade.

menon s · Post by **menon s** » 31 May 2012 16:07

It makes huge business sense to take advantage of Pakistans short comings in the petroleum sector and sell our refined crude there, since both Battinda and jamnagar has capacities to export. i do not really know why? there is so much hungama about this.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 31 May 2012 16:16

menon s wrote:It makes huge business sense to take advantage of Pakistans short comings in the petroleum sector and sell our refined crude there, since both Battinda and jamnagar has capacities to export. i do not really know why? there is so much hungama about this.

Because with Pakis

1) there is no guarantee they will pay, so there is real danger the poor Indian tax payer will end up paying for this.

2) We will end up like Indus Water treaty where we keep all our obligations while they export terror counterfeit notes and everything possible to harm us.

Besides they are not using this as first option but as a last option, why not let them sweat a bit, ask them to dismantle Pakistani railways, ask the RAPE and Paki Army to use uber hard tactics on Abduls so that Pakis can be primed for a Somalia type civil war.

Kanishka · Post by **Kanishka** » 31 May 2012 16:18

Pakistan heading for new financial crisis

ISLAMABAD: Miniscule tax revenues, mismanagement and overgenerous subsidies mean Pakistan is heading for a new financial crisis, say diplomats and analysts, with this week’s budget unlikely to offer any respite.

The budget deficit stood at 6.6 percent of GDP last year, according to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), which warned that government borrowing was crowding out the private sector from access to credit.

That reduces the prospects for economic growth in a country that is on the front line of the war against al Qaeda.

External forecasts for the current fiscal year see the budget deficit rising to about seven percent of GDP, while economists warn the government is running out of ways to fund it.

With inflation already running at around 11 percent, the alternative of printing money to pay debts opens the way to the nightmare of hyperinflation.

The IMF says Pakistan needs to raise tax revenues substantially to reduce the deficit sustainably, but with an election due within months analysts do not expect Finance Minister Abdul Hafeez Shaikh to follow its advice in budget on Friday.

“I don’t think the government is able to bear the terms that come with going back to the IMF,” said Sartaj Aziz, former finance minister.

Officials from the Finance Ministry were repeatedly contacted, but declined to comment on how they planned to finance the deficit. afp

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 31 May 2012 16:34

menon s wrote:It makes huge business sense to take advantage of Pakistans short comings in the petroleum sector and sell our refined crude there, since both Battinda and jamnagar has capacities to export. i do not really know why? there is so much hungama about this.

I agree. Why the hungama when we can always count on Pakis shooting themselves in the butt....

Pak not to import diesel, jet fuel from India: Report

Jai ho. I can now only hope and pray paki tactical shrilliance trips up the loco export and visa-lib plans....

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 31 May 2012 16:56

^^ HS ji,

Pakis have already rejected to sign the liberalized visa regime (thankfully for us) unless and until chidu strolls over to pak and signs it. Lets hope the situation stays like that.
And partha/A mulla has already parodied this news item here .

But incidentally in case of petro imports pak may change its mind and come over.
Its kinda like IPL and Pak cricketers they have very little choice inspite of their supa dupa PPL

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 31 May 2012 17:14

A majority of Pakistani nationals support trade with India - Gallup Survey
Gallup is an American company.

pgbhat · Post by **pgbhat** » 31 May 2012 17:24

They also said this before.

Pakistanis Support Tougher Stance on Terrorism - Gallup Survey

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 31 May 2012 17:30

^^^ yes they want the terrorists to get tougher with the rest of the civilised world

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 31 May 2012 17:33

Hari Seldon wrote:
menon s wrote:It makes huge business sense to take advantage of Pakistans short comings in the petroleum sector and sell our refined crude there, since both Battinda and jamnagar has capacities to export. i do not really know why? there is so much hungama about this.
I agree. Why the hungama when we can always count on Pakis shooting themselves in the butt....

Pak not to import diesel, jet fuel from India: Report

Jai ho. I can now only hope and pray paki tactical shrilliance trips up the loco export and visa-lib plans....

on the assumption that this has been orchestrated by unkil, it gives india the opportunity to say - we've done everything we could, and for paquis to shoot themselves in the foot (through the butt) - i am sure that there is lots of hair being pulled out in various diplomatic offices...
mean-e-while, i seem to recall that pak-mil refused indian help during the POK earthquake... so the trend is quite clear (and, this is a game between delhi and washington)

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 31 May 2012 17:40

As per the CNN - IBN link posted above

On the other hand, a senior official from the Petroleum Ministry has said that Pakistan has not refused to import diesel from India. He said Pakistan had expressed a desire to import furnace oil, diesel and petrol from its neighbour. "We have surplus jet fuel and thus we do not want to import that from India," the official said, adding, "We want India to export diesel through Karachi and furnace oil and petrol via the Wagah border to meet the requirements of Punjab." MORE

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 31 May 2012 17:41

surplus jet fuel? siphoned off from unkil's supplies?!

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 31 May 2012 19:18

Anujan wrote:I am going to let a fox amidst the hens. I will write a bigger post.

Anujan ji... we have discussed this possibility in 'managing whore's failure' thread. When some posters proposed a 'containment' solution, people thought that was inhumane, genocidal etc.,

Your option3 is nothing but 'containment' of people belonging to a certain social, political and regional group. I am all for such puppy jhuppy, provided we do not add additional territories to the containment area; thus providing additional hens for foxes to devour.

If the containment is indeed the strategy, why do we need hafeez pig or dawood moved into the happy zone and feed them Biryani? I would rather keep them in the contained area so they further the jihadi orgy...

shyamoo · Post by **shyamoo** » 31 May 2012 20:12

@Lilo et al.

I'll bite and agree that we can make some moolah and make TSP dependent on us for supplies ans will be able to control them based on this dependency upon us. --> This is the definition of utopia.

How can we trust the gobermand to turn-off the supply when we need it to? What has it done, so far, that gives us the confidence that the situation will be handled with an iron fist? All I see is a velvet glove ( for TSP ) and a middle finger ( for us ).
I do not see this gobermand as being assertive. We will probably end up sending a dossier and open up back channels to discuss p*ss process and continue to supply TSP with the stuff that they need. Also they are not stupid to depend upon us for their vital needs. --> This is reality

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 31 May 2012 20:22

If we haven't ever thought of playing with their water supply all these years, including during the wars, and thus violating IWT, why would we ever consider stopping the petrol flow, including during conflict? And if we don't consider this, what use is "dependence"?

Instead we should deliver more arms to MQM in Karachi, and make sure Pakis don't get any petrol from elsewhere either.

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 31 May 2012 21:06

Rajeshji, vnmshyam ji

We can consider 3 situations -

1) Pakis are not paying up

This is the most likely to occur
Response: Immediately cut supplies .This will automatically occur because this is business. Such situations arose with Nepal in the past when their economy was in a dump and they were struggling to pay up and our response has been to cut supplies inspite of we having a long fruitful relationship with nepal .There is no other recourse here, as the crude is imported , is not cheap and some one has to pay up or the supply stops at this end or that.

2) An Indo - Pak war
This is pobabilistically least possible to occur but when it occurs it will be a black swan event.
Response: This is a nobrainer. Supplies will be immediately cut - might be cut even before the war in the prevailing hostile environment. Its equivalent to economic blockade which is a legitimate instrument of war and in the three major wars + Kargil we have taken recourse to this as attested by Anujanullah. Need to use scrapping of IWT as an instrument of war didnt arise because these wars were relatively swift and were rarely having an attritional nature to them .

3a) A Major Terror Attack - This is quite unlikely to occur because pakis dont want a pincer from both sides at this point. And GOI WILL act determinedly in this case. More on this here

3b) A minor Terror Attack - This is the most likeliest to occur and pakis being pakis will do this just to test the indian response. Now here GOI may desist and pussyfoot endlessy bending under great pressure from 3.5 to not to respond by cutting supplies. Even sections of GOI may talk about increasing paki trust by preserving supply to gain greater leverage on their petro supplies for future exigencies (kinda like Burkhas stringing along the source argument

). But in a rare case it may ballup and respond inspite of consequence s . But we cant count on it and it will hurt our sensibilities.

But if Pakis make the mistake of repeatedly doing 1) and getting their supplies cut again and again and then coming back again and again, there will be no novelity in cutting supplies any more and GOI can easily do cut supplies in 3b case without much thought.
And some how pakis being pakis .. i feel 1) might occur before 3b)

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 31 May 2012 21:54

^^^

The idea that some how exporting POL from India to TSP. Will buy us some leverage is ludicrous to say the least. In a world run by wishful thinking, this will be a good idea. Not in context of the economic / social / political realities of TSP. moreover, by doing so, we will simply end up subsidizing TSP to the tune of the cost of the POL supplied to it, at the cost of Indian supplier.

Now, indulging in wishful thinking. If the 3 1/2. decided to pay India the FMV for the POL supplied by India to TSP. I will support it. Why, cause I am a yindoo bania at heart.

But, if my tax rupees have to subsidize TSP, which is what it will ultimately result in. I am totally opposed to it. Why, I am an Indian citizen and I elect the GOi to look after the interests of Indian citizen and not pay Jazia to terrorist scums.

Sagar G · Post by **Sagar G** » 31 May 2012 22:07

@ Lilo

What is the difference between a minor and a major terrorist attack ?? Does it depend upon the number of people killed and why shall we in our sanity classify a terrorist attack as a major or minor one ?? Shouldn't we be equally strict with any kind of terrorist attack ??

And GOI WILL act determinedly in this case.

You mean will send more dossiers, right ??

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 31 May 2012 22:10

Its same genre as vacating Sal Toro ridge as a CBM for TSP!

Lilo you want to sell essential energy supplies to a beggar state in hope of making them dependent.
- First of all they dont have the money to buy it from you. They get it free from the 3.5 fiends.(Spelling intentional)
- Second of all the beggar thinks he is entititled India's prosperity and wont pay or delay it as he thinks its his right.

Lilo you are making a mistake assuming the TSP is a normal rational state. Its not. Its a revisionist state while India is a status quo state. The revisionist state will seek to gain any advantage however marginal it is.

PRC is another revisionist state. We should let them both deal with each other.

India gave hazar CBMS since 1947 starting from the RBI reserves onwards to S-e-S sellout.

Nothing has changed. And things have gone only worse as TSP thinks India is weary and will give into their intransigence.

Please dont waste bandwidth in this thread. Its about TSP news and discussion and not about what India should do to appease TSP.

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 31 May 2012 22:25

ramana wrote:Its same genre as vacating Sal Toro ridge as a CBM for TSP!

.............

Please dont waste bandwidth in this thread. Its about TSP news and discussion and not about what India should do to appease TSP.

Ramana garu,
I guess my message never got across. So i will desist and not waste anymore bandwith on this thread .

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 31 May 2012 22:26

any need to get heavy with lilo? he is exploring an idea from all aspects

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 31 May 2012 22:36

Sanku wrote:At least you acknowledge that GCC's "daya" is also needed for us to work in Pakistan.
With GCC coming in, picture is clearer -- this is the continuing US-Saudi imitative to turn India to its little vassal. Makes more sense now.

The answer can be found in the close circle of Congress party. 1/3 of them have masters in the area of your concern. Start with the timing of our PM saaab declaring who has the first right over Indian natural resources.

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 31 May 2012 23:00

LM ji,
Thanks for your kind words and support.
Frankly I too feel overdone at this point - same contentions were being raised again and again and I was getting tired from replying to them again and again.

I think idea has to acquire critical mass and when some old or reputed hand takes a lead next time, I'll jump right in with my support. Till then ill take a break on this.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 31 May 2012 23:35

ramana wrote:Its same genre as vacating Sal Toro ridge as a CBM for TSP!

Lilo yow want to sell essential energy supplies to a beggar state in hope of making them dependent. First of all they dont have the money to buy it from you. They get it free from the 3.5 fiends.(Spelling intentional) Second of all the beggar thinks he is entititeld India's prosperity and wont pay or delay it as he thinks its his right.

Lilo you are making a mistake assuming the TSP is a normal rational state. Its not. Its a revisionist state while India is a status quo state. The revisionist state will seek to gain any advantage however marginal it is.
PRC is another revisionist state. We should let them both deal with each other.
India gave hazar CBMS since 1947 starting from the RBI reserves onwards to S-e-S sellout.

Nothing has changed. And things have gone only worse as TSP thinks India is weary and will give into their intransigence.

Also India cannot legitamize the jihad from Pakistan just by business relations. Jihad must be put down publicly by the Indian govt and various organization inside India. Also Pakistan must be told to do the same thing.

India cannot have any culture of Pakistan inside India.

shyamoo · Post by **shyamoo** » 31 May 2012 23:39

Lilo wrote:Rajeshji, vnmshyam ji

We can consider 3 situations -

1) Pakis are not paying up

This is the most likely to occur
Response: Immediately cut supplies .This will automatically occur because this is business. Such situations arose with Nepal in the past when their economy was in a dump and they were struggling to pay up and our response has been to cut supplies inspite of we having a long fruitful relationship with nepal .There is no other recourse here, as the crude is imported , is not cheap and some one has to pay up or the supply stops at this end or that.

TSP doesn't have any money and at this time is trying to borrow money from IMF to service their debt. So shouldn't this trigger option 1 - Hence, do not even start sending supplies?

We do not have any members of the secularists crying out for Nepal. It wouldn't matter if we stopped supplies or not. No body would have cared. But in TSP's case, the whole brigade would come out and say that we should continue to send supplies. They are our brothers.. we are like them onlee etc..

3b) A minor Terror Attack - This is the most likeliest to occur and pakis being pakis will do this just to test the indian response. Now here GOI may desist and pussyfoot endlessy bending under great pressure from 3.5 to not to respond by cutting supplies. Even sections of GOI may talk about increasing paki trust by preserving supply to gain greater leverage on their petro supplies for future exigencies (kinda like Burkhas stringing along the source argument ). But in a rare case it may ballup and respond inspite of consequence s . But we cant count on it and it will hurt our sensibilities.
But if Pakis make the mistake of repeatedly doing 1) and getting their supplies cut again and again and then coming back again and again, there will be no novelity in cutting supplies any more and GOI can easily do cut supplies in 3b case without much thought.
And some how pakis being pakis .. i feel 1) might occur before 3b)

So, you do agree with the others here that we cannot be confident about our response. We can only hope!!! This is akin to lighting a candle in the wind and hoping that it doesn't get extinguished!!

The people disagreeing with you on this understand your point of view but basically are against it because of fact that TSP will never change and our gobermand will not fail to respond, if the situation arises..... by sending dossiers.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 31 May 2012 23:52

Sagar G wrote: What is the difference between a minor and a major terrorist attack ??

Dearest lilo has forgotten that a "minor" terror attack happens in J&K every week. On a good week.

I really want to throw up here frankly.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 31 May 2012 23:55

Lalmohan wrote:any need to get heavy with lilo? he is exploring an idea from all aspects

Seriously?

Mahendra · Post by **Mahendra** » 31 May 2012 23:57

Sanku wrote:
Sagar G wrote: What is the difference between a minor and a major terrorist attack ??
Dearest lilo has forgotten that a "minor" terror attack happens in J&K every week. On a good week.

I really want to throw up here frankly.

It seems the CBMs( cholera building measures) are really working if Sanku al Hawki wants to throw up

venkat_r · Post by **venkat_r** » 01 Jun 2012 00:01

How many dossiers do we have to give them to get the 2$ that they owe us for the exported fuel

Mahendra · Post by **Mahendra** » 01 Jun 2012 00:05

I guess Liloji hasn't had his "Eureka" moment wrt Bakistan yet anyone who has had his eureka moment regarding Bakistan will know there can be no biss and brosberity in the subcontinent as long as Bakistan Armystan exists. My mind is perfectly clear, there can't be any biss with Bakistan in its current or future form as long as something called Bakistan army exists. Any form of support to the so called civvi establishment is virtually the same as the appeasement policy that came back to bite most of western europe in the musharaff. Just build the walls higher and electrify the fences

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 01 Jun 2012 00:07

I wonder what these events are considered as

http://daily.bhaskar.com/article/NAT-TO ... 41637.html
Militant attack in J&K: 7 CRPF jawans injured

Must be a variety of CBMs.

And look here, the Pakis were so excited to see us that there was fireworks.

http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes ... stani-side
Pakistan again violates LoC truce

"There was unprovoked firing from the Pakistani side on Indian positions in the Mendhar sector (240 km northwest of Jammu) late last night. We also retaliated and firing went on for over an hour," an army officer said.

-----------------------------------------

And this level of blatant denial when people are still dying, imagine if a week went by without a Indian being hurt or maimed by Pakis. WKK will probably declare a 1000 year peace has started.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 01 Jun 2012 00:08

Paki lurks.. Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arapia said this..

the king responded by repeating the same line: 'If they get nuclear weapons, we will get nuclear weapons.'"

Ross is the first authoritative source to disclose the Saudi strategic decision to meet Shiite Persian nukes with Sunni Arab nukes.

It means Pakis are neither Sunni nor Shia. You are not islamic enough for your arap fathers...try harder to prove yourself.

A suggestion: Instead of looking for strategic death in Afghanistan, pursue your strategic depth in Saudi Arabia. With one loose nuke in KSA, you will kill two birds - Two holy mosques and Oil!

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 01 Jun 2012 00:10

Ah Mahendra-ullah.....