PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

[chola]

Congestion in India. Villages have largely grown from 10k populations to 200 k populations in the last couple of decades. Many villages internals cannot be electrified as they are so densely packed. Imagine 200k people bunched into a 400m by 400m square. I visited some such villages recently, the innards. There were people i met who earned 40plus k a month, had no fridge, electricity, TV. They did not want electricity also. They were right. I have been posting on the problem caused by over congestion for sometime here now, to bring an awareness. Such congestion will not allow much consumable investments like TV, fridges, cars etc. But it will not hamper mobile phones for example. Just google map for villages even 60 miles from Delhi and you will notice the problem. While landing you also get a clear view as you pass over myriad congested villages and see the snarling traffic as a lone road passes in the vicinity. As these get engulfed by towns the traffic becomes unbearable as people spill over into the streets for a living. But just google map, take a ruler and see the problem and solution for yourself. China was still more 'hamletized' than India. India neglected that aspect completely.

I actually wrote something about this years ago. People who are stuck in such densely packed areas say in a wealthier society like the US and Europe would have simply moved out to a place where there is electricity. Why does this not take place in India? It does but the volume has been limited by the ability of the economy to provide those new places with the modern amenities.

So it is still the economy. Density is a poor excuse. If you can charge a cellphone you should be able to run a fridge or washing machine. The only difference is the fridge or washing machine is more expensive to buy and operate and requires more space in your humble abode. In the end, it comes down to disposable income. I find it improbable that there are many 40K a month earners who would not look for a better place to live. Obviously there are always exception to the rule. The reason most people are there is because they could not afford better. Movement in India is restricted only by poverty not by law (which actually is a problem in China or North Korea.)

There are many many densely packed places in the developed world that at one time had no electricity and that includes the great cities like London, New York and Paris. If your economy can support it you will have it. But if you can't support it then you won't.

[chola]

Weren't these countries fake democracies early in the industrial age? "Democracy" was reserved only for certain classes of people. Even women got the vote in the US less than a 100 years ago. South Korean miracle also is attributed to authoritarian rule.

Then why hasn't North Korea grown as fast as South Korea?

Free societies are far wealthier. It's not even debatable. Obvious there are variations of free societies. "Authoritarian" South Korea, Taiwan or Singapore were pretty much free societies. You can start a business. You can get loans to start a business. You can create and innovate. You can watch anything you want.

You can't any of those things in North Korea. You can probably start a business in China but you'll get the death penalty if you try to get funding for it. You certainly can't innovate or think in those societies.

These are the things we already have in India. It is our execution not our system. No one anywhere, except for an Indian, would ever say that "intuitively" that a communist society like China would have the advantage. That is the most stupid thing I could imagine.

Try saying that to anyone in the corporate West, Japan or South Korea. The democracy always have the advantage. Freedom is intuitively wealthier. That is why even people who hate the West, like muslims, still flock there because freedom equals wealth.

[Singha]

in my opinion it is the degree of business friendliness and ruthless execution that upto a certain point determines the growth of a economy. most of ASEAN and china rose to that level using this formula with mixed degrees of democracy ranging from 'chinese model' to various east asian 'strongmen' like lee yuan kew. a common feature was oppn parties were ruthlessly crushed and disruption to social order frowned upon. india govt has been many things but not that business friendly and current UPA regime takes the cake in being unfriendly and stalling projects.

to advance beyond that level to true world scale product and service leadership, more democracy is needed and thats precisely what south korea and taiwan got in the 80s. for various reasons thailand and malaysia are kind of stuck in a middle income trap (weak education system?) and philipines and indonesia are no better than india now on avg and weaker in many respects!

[member_20317]

chola ji take a look at the following link Page 7
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INDI ... js_ppt.pdf

Now have a look at the following two links:
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/india/g ... -data.html
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/g ... -data.html

Seems like an average Indian is a much much big saver (include gold hoarding tendencies) than even an average Chinese who in any case are big time savers (with due respect)

No I dont doubt the tracking features of consumption patterns but then due allowances have to be made for other accounting items also.

Also I dont doubt your contention, Chinese are actually ahead of us in almost every respect except the maturity of the citizen which is actually helped by the system here.

[JwalaMukhi]

Where did India rank in terms of "economic freedom" not mere "freedom to vote" ten years back? Has it improved in the ten years. The answers to that are pertinent. "Voting Democracy" could be necessary condition to foster growth, but is not sufficient condition to ensure growth.
One obvious measure would be look at the top wealthy people who have made it in business. If the list continues to be dominated by entrenched set of same people/family it points to business interest that have gamed the system to its advantage, then economic freedom is lower.
Not only that, such interests do not like to foster and support environment so other upstarts have flexibility and room to achieve success. An unwritten monopoly on wealth creation by collusion.
For all the innovation coming out of a company that has stayed in the game for centuries is mere blip and not a sign of significant change in the economic environment.

[harbans]

Why does this not take place in India? It does but the volume has been limited by the ability of the economy to provide those new places with the modern amenities.

Yes, yes indeed Cholla Ji. But who do you think migrate and to where? Who are they who cluster into the shanties of Mumbai for instance. The limited ability of our economy to provide a platform of high growth is obviously a major core reason.

So it is still the economy. Density is a poor excuse. If you can charge a cellphone you should be able to run a fridge or washing machine.

The villages i went, electricity existed to a limited number of houselholds, most of that adjacent to the road where some small shops, eateries, cycle, tyre repair shops were there. Even in some of the congested clusters where electricity is provided, no one can really keep a tab on who consumes how much. It is easy to tap. Distribution losses amount to as high as 30 % and more in some states. When you don't have electricity in the innards of the village, yes one can use a cell phone. Work in the nearby sugar mill or fields or chai shop or repair shop or grocery shop by the street and charge ones phone. But no it's not possible to buy a washing machine, car, TV and such. I not only met such people earning 40k a month, i was shown the house of a Maj General in the village innard. He does not stay there, but does drop in once a while. No there is no electricity or Fridge, TV in his ancestral house till last month.

Village decongestion requires a basic level effort on the part of the Govt in interactions with the local panchayats. Minimum distances kept between houses and inner streets made mandatory for arrangements to run piped sewage and electricity connections possible. I have also in contrast travelled through Chinese villages. They are more hamletized and less ghettoized than the ones i see in India. Even if there is not much of economic activity around. Google maps confirms this.

[member_20317]

http://www.heritage.org/index/visualize

JwalaMukhi ji, the above could help w.r.t. how the outside world views both India and China.

While we are tracking China but we at least have some choices which is what we will require if we are to have democracy serve our interests.

[member_20317]

harbansji, if as you imply 'more hamletized and less ghettoized' is good then all the rural marketing esp. of consumer goods should be well below that of other items like agri goods or even mobiles as you have already alluded to. Also higher savings should appear back into the economy somewhere which could be 'gold' and say educational expenses.

Are we tracking well in household education expenditure. Sir ji do you see hoardings for 'tuition classes' in rural China.

[gakakkad]

harbans ji , the type of ghettos you described are characterised only in UP and Bihar.. All villages are electrified in Gujarat and most have access to TV. I am sure that South villages are equally well developed. Not to mention Punjab and haryana.

UP/Bihar again cannot be taken as representatives of India because they are lot poorer than rest of country..

[harbans]

harbansji, if as you imply 'more hamletized and less ghettoized' is good then all the rural marketing esp. of consumer goods should be well below that of other items like agri goods or even mobiles as you have already alluded to. Also higher savings should appear back into the economy somewhere which could be 'gold' and say educational expenses.

Consumer goods the types which Hindustan lever makes will not be much different, China circa 2004 and India 2012. So sabun, surf, colgate and items that don't require electricity will sell as well. Mobile phones are easily charged, so penetration is easy. And as you say hoardings on education, pvt classes these will be there in India as for only the young in the village the escape route is only that from the ghetto. Meanwhile China being more hamletized will have better access to sanitation, electricity, TV, Fridge even vehicles if you compare circa 2004-2012 China: India. The indices in India are low primarily due to the ghetto factor.

Meanwhile consider that many in the villages who earn 40k (not all do, but there are many houselholds that do) they save the money in a local SBI branch, invest in LIC etc..they also invest in Gold, which you pointed as a marker. So the data itself shows that if you remove the ghetto's it will be easy to get modern sewerage systems and electricity, lessen distribution theft and give a massive pump to consumption of the items that are electricity dependent.

Notice the shanty town ghetto's of Mumbai. Every one has a DTH antenna connection. But that is what i saw from the road. Never been in the innards of a slum in mumbai.

[harbans]

Gk ji yes you are mostly correct in saying that this is more prevalent in UP and Bihar. But it's not restricted to there. South India is much better. But the problem is there in Haryana too. But even if we say UP and Bihar, they are very much a part of our set up and we cannot neglect that aspect. Almost a quarter of India's population is from these states. This is largely not restricted though to UP and Bihar. The ghetto's that develop and strain mumbai are aslo made majorly as a result of influx from these states.

[Theo_Fidel]

OT but....

I can confirm that in South TN just about every home has a TV, small fridge & fan. Many now have a small A/C too. These are dense old style villages or even newer surrounding developments. Land is so expensive that 2-3 storey single family house is built on 3-4 cents of land with 25-40 foot access street. But the house will have 2 scooters/bikes and maybe small car, usually cable TV. Northern towns suffer from lack of financial growth. People don't earn enough to upgrade their villages yet. It has proven quite trivial to improve villages in South TN so far. North too will upgrade as it gets richer.
--------------------------------------

Meanwhile the latest China stimulus is being leaked to the press.... ..looks like about $300 Billion more.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-0 ... uisse-says

The Chinese government’s stimulus in response to the nation’s economic slowdown will probably be as high as 2 trillion yuan ($315 billion), half the size of 2008’s package, Credit Suisse Group AG said.

Spending on investment will range from 1 trillion yuan to 2 trillion yuan, compared with the 4 trillion yuan stimulus enacted in response to the global financial crisis, Tao Dong, a Hong Kong-based economist, said in a research note today. The government actions will aid a rebound in growth that may slow to 7 percent or “slightly below” this quarter, Tao said.

Premier Wen Jiabao has vowed to focus more on increasing growth after trade and domestic demand were below forecasts in April, data that prompted economists to pare outlooks for the world’s second-largest economy. The government’s efforts may help lift expansion in the second half to a range of 8 percent to 8.6 percent, Tao said.

[wrdos]

This is very typical an example of the economy bottleneck by poor infrastructure.

Mr. Suraj in some sense is correct because the last 10 years development of India do share many with China during the 1990s, and until 2003 or 2004 when the country moved from a low income country to some lower-mid income status.

However, thanks the tremendous investment on infrastructure, China in 2004 did not face the bottleneck of transportation, communication and electricity supply problems as India's in Today. After 2004 and until 2011, China is enjoying a sequence of years of some record high nominal GDP increase that ever experienced by any countries and for sure the only one for a country with population >50million.

That has been the combination of 2-digit real GDP increase + 3-5% inflation + 3-5% appreciation of yuan for at least 5 to 6 years.

Now the problem would be, whether India can expect to repeat such experience from now.

The villages i went, electricity existed to a limited number of houselholds, most of that adjacent to the road where some small shops, eateries, cycle, tyre repair shops were there. Even in some of the congested clusters where electricity is provided, no one can really keep a tab on who consumes how much. It is easy to tap. Distribution losses amount to as high as 30 % and more in some states. When you don't have electricity in the innards of the village, yes one can use a cell phone. Work in the nearby sugar mill or fields or chai shop or repair shop or grocery shop by the street and charge ones phone. But no it's not possible to buy a washing machine, car, TV and such. I not only met such people earning 40k a month, i was shown the house of a Maj General in the village innard. He does not stay there, but does drop in once a while. No there is no electricity or Fridge, TV in his ancestral house till last month.

Village decongestion requires a basic level effort on the part of the Govt in interactions with the local panchayats. Minimum distances kept between houses and inner streets made mandatory for arrangements to run piped sewage and electricity connections possible. I have also in contrast travelled through Chinese villages. They are more hamletized and less ghettoized than the ones i see in India. Even if there is not much of economic activity around. Google maps confirms this.

[wrdos]

I do think congestion a big advantage when you want to build an electricity supply grid.
Just imagine the cost for trying to supply 2000 people who happen to live in 20+ villages sparsely distributing within a mountain area of 100 by 100 km area?

It is the problem facing some Chinese provinces when they have to follow the central government's order to supply electricity to every village of their provinces. The easier jobs with in congested high density area have been finished decades ago.

Often, buy each villager family a big apartment in the nearest town and guarantee them a life time tuition (most of them who left in remote villages are senior citizens, dominantly) are much cheaper.

A second choice would be by solar or wind electricity.

Congestion in India. Villages have largely grown from 10k populations to 200 k populations in the last couple of decades. Many villages internals cannot be electrified as they are so densely packed. Imagine 200k people bunched into a 400m by 400m square. I visited some such villages recently, the innards. There were people i met who earned 40plus k a month, had no fridge, electricity, TV. They did not want electricity also. They were right. I have been posting on the problem caused by over congestion for sometime here now, to bring an awareness. Such congestion will not allow much consumable investments like TV, fridges, cars etc. But it will not hamper mobile phones for example. Just google map for villages even 60 miles from Delhi and you will notice the problem. While landing you also get a clear view as you pass over myriad congested villages and see the snarling traffic as a lone road passes in the vicinity. As these get engulfed by towns the traffic becomes unbearable as people spill over into the streets for a living. But just google map, take a ruler and see the problem and solution for yourself. China was still more 'hamletized' than India. India neglected that aspect completely.

[wong]

However, thanks the tremendous investment on infrastructure, China in 2004 did not face the bottleneck of transportation, communication and electricity supply problems as India's in Today. After 2004 and until 2001, China is enjoying a sequence of years of some record high nominal GDP increase that ever experienced by any countries and for sure the only one for a country with population >50million.

That has been the combination of 2-digit real GDP increase + 3-5% inflation + 3-5% appreciation of yuan for least 5 to 6 years.

Now the problem would be, whether India can expect to repeat such experience from now.

The biggest contributor to China's GDP growth 2003-2012 is joining the WTO. That was the GDP growth "kicker" for China. I'm not sure what the equivalence for India is, perhaps the same "Full" membership. I know that's what Russia is trying.

[harbans]

Theo Ji, you are correct. I have biked down quite a lot of South India (which i still find a much better way of traveling than in a 4 wheeler across India). A memory i cherish, seeing a lot of pretty hamlets. Whten per cap incomes go above 6-8K USD travelling through these areas will look just as good as travellling through the European or American countrysides.

Land is so expensive that 2-3 storey single family house is built on 3-4 cents of land with 25-40 foot access street. But the house will have 2 scooters/bikes and maybe small car, usually cable TV. Northern towns suffer from lack of financial growth. People don't earn enough to upgrade their villages yet.

A major cause of ghetto'ization in the North is stated as security. Most villages had fortifications/ walls built around till quite recently. But the days of the Sultans army's raiding are long gone by, but the effects remain. Making space also implies the ability to put a car/ scooter/ small car easy to put. And such industries will come up places where people buy into such stuff. I am quite certain that electricity, TV, Fridge, AC penetration is higher in the South than is in areas where the populations are ghetto'ized.

I do think congestion a big advantage when you want to build an electricity supply grid. Just imagine the cost for trying to supply 2000 people who happen to live in 20+ villages sparsely distributing within a mountain area of 100 by 100 km area?

Indeed, that is another end of the problem. India has that too in many areas. Far flung hamlets are difficult to connect. But at the other end of the spectrum, if we invest in boxing in 200k people where the opposite house is 3 feet across the street, we don't leave an option that they may in the future have electricity, sewage and the consumables that run on it. Even if i have a GW installation just on the ghetto outskirt i cannot electrify it's innard. One cannot sell them scooters, AC, Fridges let alone a small car. While all that is very much possible in more hamletized set ups as in South India and China.

If we do take these items into consideration China-non ghetto South India, Gujarat parts i am certain the consumption of many items would be matching..AC, fridges, TV etc (2004-2012).

[gunjur]

Ten countries where china has invested the most

[Aditya_V]

Ten countries where china has invested the most

WHAT- No Tallen than tallest Mountain deepar than deepest valley friends.

[Advait]

This talk of difference in consumer goods is a good point to show where we are vis-a-vis China and that's what I was trying to say when I started mentioning the car figures.

The point here is that we are assuming that we are onlee 8-10 years behind China. But our progress doesn't have to be so linear.

Besides my biggest concern is that the environmentalist-activist judges-social activists complex will retard India's growth.

Just look at the number of delayed/cancelled projects: POSCO in Odhisa, Sardar Sarover, Konkan railways, Bangalore airport and many more.

I was going through an article about the Canadian tar sands industry on Business Insider
http://www.businessinsider.com/canadian ... 012-5?op=1

This kind of project would never takeoff in India. The concept of no loss no gain just doesn't register here. Or maybe our people are just not vocal enough about development, so small groups can get away with big (-ve )decisions.

[Theo_Fidel]

Actually it was not so clear what would happen when China began the build out in 2003. The projections called for increasing coal consumption from 800 million tons to 4 Billion. People thought China would be mad to do this but it did anyway. So now China consumes more coal than the rest of the world put together. Similar things have happened with dozens of other sectors.

India is unlikely to do big bang growth like that. Our growth will be more incremental. The plan right now is to add about 80,000MW by 2017. Hard though it is to believe our energy consumption per unit of GDP is far more efficient and is much less than Panda and likely to remain so. So despite the lower hard numbers actual output will remain higher.
---------------------------------------

Harbans,

Those same town walls surround many many of the older towns in the South, it is only the smaller hamlets that don't have them. What also helped in the South was early population control and migration to cities. TN for instance urbanized early depopulating the rural towns. Rural TN is projected to halve its population in the next 30 years. Something similar will happen in the North.

[pankajs]

Fund file: In a hole? China keeps digging

China has been on a supersize binge that has led to case of investment gigantism, according to Edward Chancellor, writing in Monday’s FTfm.

Chancellor, who is on the asset allocation team of investment manager GMO, thinks the last fiscal stimulus in 2009 led to huge amounts of capital being stupendously misallocated and wonders if the proposed new stimulus plan will lead to more of the same.

Consider, he says, China’s expensive train set. The rapid expansion of its 25,000km high-speed rail system is misguided because it is cheaper and more sensible to fly long distances. In addition it has saddled the railway ministry with debts equivalent to 5 per cent of GDP.

Other gigantic needless developments have also sprang up. The world’s largest indoor ski venue is under construction in Tianjin, the second and third largest skyscrapers are going up in Shanghai and Wuhan and domestic shipbuilders have built iron-ore carriers so large they are unable to dock in Chinese ports.

These investments have largely been funded with debt. System-wide debt has risen by nearly 50 per cent of GDP since 2008. Ernst & Young thinks up to a third of bank lending to infrastructure projects (estimated at between Rmb9tn and Rmb14tn) could turn bad.

What next?

Beijing’s new investment plan is likely to add capacity where excess capacity already exists. Seventy new airports, to be built over the next five years, are likely to come into competition with the high-speed rail system. As part of the package, two steel projects have been approved for Guangdong and Wuhan. Yet China’s steel capacity is set to reach 884m tons this year, compared with demand of around 700m tons, says Citigroup.

Chancellor sees little chance of more sensible development. He notes the political pressure on local governments to promote growth so that Beijing’s GDP growth targets are met and says this response has dug China’s economy into a deeper hole.

“Beijing’s plan? Keep on digging!” says Chancellor.

Sobering words for investors intent on the China growth engine theme.

[pankajs]

China warns on lending to steel plants

China has warned its banks of rampant illicit borrowing by steel companies, a development that underscores the financial dangers for the country as the government mulls a new stimulus effort to support the slowing economy.

Some Chinese steel trading companies have borrowed excessively from banks and then used the funds to speculate on property and stocks, the bank regulator said in a directive that was seen by the Financial Times. The regulator added that banks must be more vigilant in lending to the companies.

The directive, which was issued on April 26 and never published, is an important reminder of the risks that could flare up if Chinese officials loosen the reins on the financial sector and approve another wave of investment projects.

Even without illicit borrowing, credit risks in the steel sector are on the rise, the regulator cautioned.

“Banks must accurately assess how slowing exports and falling domestic purchases of homes and cars will impact the demand for steel and the operations of steel trading companies,” it said.

Beijing used the country’s banks as the primary channel for pumping cash into the economy in 2008-9 when the global financial crisis erupted, and officials are still trying to get a grip on the bad debt that resulted from the lending spree.

However, with the economy slowing sharply over the past two months, pressure is once again mounting on the government to rev up growth. Premier Wen Jiabao said two weeks ago that it was time to kick-start more investment. Since his comments, bankers say that lending has picked up noticeably.

[Theo_Fidel]

Looks like QE3 has been kicked off. Should see another M2 spurt from Panda now. Probably another 30% growth in money supply.

[pankajs]

Understanding the China Slowdown

A sure sign of Chinese concern about their economy is the flurry of announcements about growth. China must give “more priority to maintaining growth,” Premier Wen Jiabao said on May 20. “Key infrastructure projects” will be sped up, the State Council announced on May 23. “China is making all-out efforts to encourage private investment,” reported the official Xinhua News Agency on May 28.

More stimulus for China? The last program was launched just over three years ago. “Until recently, most officials felt there was no need to do more than push down gently on the accelerator,” wrote Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at consultants Capital Economics in a May 24 note. No longer. The economy expanded 8.1 percent in the first quarter.

Credit Suisse (CS) now expects China to grow at 7 percent or less this quarter. If Greece quits the euro and China fails to deliver on stimulus, the mainland’s growth could slow to 6.4 percent this year, warned local investment bank China International Capital on May 23.

The latest stimulus could cost 2 trillion yuan ($315 billion), estimates Credit Suisse. A plan to subsidize consumer purchases of energy-efficient appliances will soon kick in, and the planning agency has approved the expansion of airport projects in the provinces of Xinjiang, Chongqing, and Sichuan.

The Chinese seem aware that the last spending spree resulted in overbuilding. “The efforts for stabilizing growth will not repeat the old ways of three years ago,” Xinhua reported on May 29.

Some economists are skeptical. “There is already massive overcapacity. But they are saying everything is going to be fine,” says Patrick Chovanec, a business professor at Tsinghua University. “That’s because the government is going to spend lots of money. Think of the moral hazard there.”

[Waylan]

At least Chinese have something to show for their spending. What might have gone to waste is unfortunate, but just a drop in the bucket compared to the size of this modernity project."huge amounts of capital being stupendously misallocated and wonders if the proposed new stimulus plan". Give us a fcuking break and go fix your fcuking own house westerners.

Fund file: In a hole? China keeps digging

China has been on a supersize binge that has led to case of investment gigantism, according to Edward Chancellor, writing in Monday’s FTfm.

Chancellor, who is on the asset allocation team of investment manager GMO, thinks the last fiscal stimulus in 2009 led to huge amounts of capital being stupendously misallocated and wonders if the proposed new stimulus plan will lead to more of the same.

Consider, he says, China’s expensive train set. The rapid expansion of its 25,000km high-speed rail system is misguided because it is cheaper and more sensible to fly long distances. In addition it has saddled the railway ministry with debts equivalent to 5 per cent of GDP.

Other gigantic needless developments have also sprang up. The world’s largest indoor ski venue is under construction in Tianjin, the second and third largest skyscrapers are going up in Shanghai and Wuhan and domestic shipbuilders have built iron-ore carriers so large they are unable to dock in Chinese ports.

These investments have largely been funded with debt. System-wide debt has risen by nearly 50 per cent of GDP since 2008. Ernst & Young thinks up to a third of bank lending to infrastructure projects (estimated at between Rmb9tn and Rmb14tn) could turn bad.

What next?

Beijing’s new investment plan is likely to add capacity where excess capacity already exists. Seventy new airports, to be built over the next five years, are likely to come into competition with the high-speed rail system. As part of the package, two steel projects have been approved for Guangdong and Wuhan. Yet China’s steel capacity is set to reach 884m tons this year, compared with demand of around 700m tons, says Citigroup.

Chancellor sees little chance of more sensible development. He notes the political pressure on local governments to promote growth so that Beijing’s GDP growth targets are met and says this response has dug China’s economy into a deeper hole.

“Beijing’s plan? Keep on digging!” says Chancellor.

Sobering words for investors intent on the China growth engine theme.

[Theo_Fidel]

Mr Waylan forgets that the purpose of that $300 Billion is to create more steel and widgets for exports to those same fcuking westerners. Without exports to West Panda is a shriveled up prune. Also the West did get quite a bit out of its debt splurge. Even lowly Greece has orders of magnitude better infrastructure that Panda wonderland. Even had a per capita income of $35,000. What did the serfs get in the Panda splurge?

[wong]

Mr Waylan forgets that the purpose of that $300 Billion is to create more steel and widgets for exports to those same fcuking westerners. Without exports to West Panda is a shriveled up prune. Also the West did get quite a bit out of its debt splurge. Even lowly Greece has orders of magnitude better infrastructure that Panda wonderland. Even had a per capita income of $35,000. What did the serfs get in the Panda splurge?

Anecdotal evidence would suggest the "Panda serfs" have gotten a lot. Google Chinese farmer builds: wind powered car, submarine, tank, destroyer, helicopter, et cetera, etc. This tells me they have way too much free time and disposable income. Sure, not as much as the Greeks on German credit, but a vast improvement than 30 years ago.

[pankajs]

China Restricts Once-Public Company Data

BEIJING—Beijing has curtailed access to information often used by investors and short sellers to evaluate Chinese companies, which could further cloud an often murky market for foreign investors.

A Chinese government agency that compiles extensive Chinese corporate records has begun to withhold information that includes financial reports, shareholder changes and assets transfers, according to lawyers, investors and research companies.

The new restrictions come at a time of skepticism from U.S. regulators and investors over financial data from some China-based companies. Last year, amid pressure from short sellers, auditors resigned from dozen's of firms, citing problems with financial reporting, and in some cases auditors backed away from financial results they had previously blessed.

[vina]

Anecdotal evidence would suggest the "Panda serfs" have gotten a lot. Google Chinese farmer builds: wind powered car, submarine, tank, destroyer, helicopter, et cetera, etc. This tells me they have way too much free time and disposable income. Sure, not as much as the Greeks on German credit, but a vast improvement than 30 years ago.

I am not sure how this will play out in a few years. But if history is any parallel, the "Great Wall" , built on the blood and sweat of "Panda Serfs" , but essentially useless, has stood for a couple of millenia for that kind of idiocy.

The Mao Tse Dong era will get published and unearthed eventually and so will the entire Communist Era.

How will history evaluate you . Like This Joseph Stalin's Deadly Rail to Nowhere . The parallels between the Stalinist/Soviet Gulag and the Mao ere Gulags and the "Cultural Revolution" and the continuing oppression of lay Chinese is simply eerie. Well, in Russia, atleast, there was a Alexander Solzhenitsyn , the Russians have moved on , can talk about it and are now free. What about China ? Those memories are repressed, cannot be spoken of at all, and if done, it is in hushed whispers passed down in families. Why, just ask your own family (mom/dad/aunts/uncles).

Talk later about the 'unnatural' experience of a society as a whole growing up without siblings, and cousins, uncles and aunts (if both your parents are single children themselves, you have no cousins , aunts and uncles). It must be pretty haunting and lonely. I really don't think that "Panda Serfs" got a good bargain at all, what they got was a good shafting.

So, all in all "Panda Serf" society has been reduced to a "Mad Scientist" experiment by a bunch of unelected thugs who exercise total power over you (including how many children you can have), make all the decisions for you and created a basically self centered and basically unnatural society, where the be all and end all is "I" and the "party" and the only worship allowed is that of Mammon. So basically, worship mammon and eat 2 meals a day and give up the essence of human existence is the bargain "Panda Serfs" made with the Communist Party "devil' . Not a good one at all I am afraid.

[wong]

^^^

That is your distorted view of history with a heavy Indian bias. The Great Wall is as "useless" as your Taj Mahal and just as beautiful. It is also a testament to the Chinese love of building infrastructure.

Without turning this into another pissing contest. Isn't Chinese farmers building flying saucers or robots or submarines or helicopters better than suicide. How good is your Indian farmer's "essence of human existence" when "suiciding" is the second term Google associates with the Indian farmer after "monsanto". I rather be building flying saucers.

Also, the one child policy (which I agree with for an overpopulated country like China) is relaxed for Panda serfs and ethnic minorities (non-Hans). "Pretty haunting and lonely"?? Maybe, but so is the 'Baby Falak' series running on the WSJ right now.

[member_20292]

^^^

Wong, there is for sure a large amount of artificiality to the Chinese growth story which does not bear well for people's faith in the system.

The Indian system is rickety but people do feel like they have a stake in it, when they go out and protest and make changes or campaign to make changes.

Recent prison sentences and crucifixion of a few famous names in China does not seem to be doing China's reputation a world of good.

Freedom is important. Wealth is important too. The Indian economy is one fourth the size of China's .....but seriously...having stayed in America, and having seen what a broken social family fabric looks like....I prefer India to China in the long run.

[vina]

^^^

That is your distorted view of history with a heavy Indian bias. The Great Wall is as "useless" as your Taj Mahal and just as beautiful. It is also a testament to the Chinese love of building infrastructure.

Hmm. Interesting. I though the Great Wall was not built for any artistic beauty, but was meant to stop the "Barbarians" from the North. The Taj Mahal on the other had was built as a monument of love and was supposed to personify beauty and art. Point is, while the Taj really did what it was meant to do (be a work of art and beauty), the Great Wall (stop Barbarians from the north) never did what it was meant to do.

The Great Wall is indeed a very very very expensive tourist trap and fundamentally failed in what it was supposed to do as an " infrastructure " project. The Great Wall, that way is analogous to the Shanghai Maglev (another ultra expensive tourist trap, who admire it for gee-whiz tech and futurustic stuff than use it purely for it's functional attributes). Indeed, the Maglev and the entire HSR largely resembles the Great Wall, minus the millions whipped and killed and slaved to manually build the Great Wall, though you can argue that the modern day "immigrant" (they do need Hukous after all and are immigrants to chinese cities) "Panda Serfs" built the HSR and everything.

Without turning this into another pissing contest. Isn't Chinese farmers building flying saucers or robots or submarines or helicopters better than suicide. How good is your Indian farmer's "essence of human existence" when "suiciding" is the second term Google associates with the Indian farmer after "monsanto". I rather be building flying saucers.

Just because you don't hear of it and the Chinese press is not free and there are serious limits to foreign press, it doesn't mean that it is black and white vs the Indian and Chinese rural folk. Judging a society, especially a democracy with it's free press from the daily headlines (sensationalism sells, s*x sells, sleaze sells, while a running commentry of a plane landing and taking off from an airport will elicit yawns and a crash of a single plane will lead to breathless round the clock news), can make you miss the wood for the trees.

Also, the one child policy (which I agree with for an overpopulated country like China) is relaxed for Panda serfs and ethnic minorities (non-Hans). "Pretty haunting and lonely"?? Maybe, but so is the 'Baby Falak' series running on the WSJ right now.

There are Baby Falaks in EVERY society. Whether you recognize it or not and talk about it or not is a different thing altogether. Problem is a "Panda Serf" will NEVER have siblings , NEVER have uncles and aunts. From what I have seen of the Chinese in the US and Singapore, they are a warm , loving and close family culture, who care deeply for their extended families and clans. This "Mad Scientist" PRC experiment has utterly and totally decimated the overwhelming bulk of Chinese society. The only hope is the remnants in Taiwan, HK, SIngapore and other Chinese diasporas around the world.

[wong]

^^^^

Beauty is subjective. The Great Wall and its scenary is very beautiful to me and many fellow Chinese. As for whether it was useful or not, I know it stopped a few invaders. The Taj Mahal was built by Mughal invaders using Indian labor in the Mughal style. Not my cup of tea, but I'm glad to hear you like what you built for them.

As for the Shanghai maglev, that's the basis for civilian tech transfer of Chinese EMALS for Chinese carrier catapults. I wouldn't call it useless.

The rest of your arguments is standard Indian fare and discussed thousands of times already. Given a Sophie's Choice of being born a Chinese farmer or an Indian farmer, I'll bet on being a "Panda serf".

[vina]

^^^^

Beauty is subjective. The Great Wall and its scenary is very beautiful to me and many fellow Chinese. As for whether it was useful or not, I know it stopped a few invaders. The Taj Mahal was built by Mughal invaders using Indian labor in the Mughal style. Not my cup of tea, but I'm glad to hear you like what you built for them.

I never questioned the "artistic" value of the Great Wall, just it's functional and fundamental one. It didn't stop the "Barbarian" invasion, there never was one and in fact, it facilitated the internal chinese collapse! A fat lot of good that wall did to you.

As for the Shanghai maglev, that's the basis for civilian tech transfer of Chinese EMALS for Chinese carrier catapults. I wouldn't call it useless.

Now we are into fiction writing aren't we ? Last I heard from people here, the Shanghai maglev was supposed to be the basis of "thousands of chinese copies" , whizzing people at near aircraft speeds and leap frogging china into a "post aircraft" world. Well, now since that became a cropper, we are into a lame excuse of EMALS for aircraft carriers!

Why in heaven's name would you buy a whole maglev for that. Throwing a couple of million dollars at Tsighua's Electrical Machines Engg dept will see you develop a EMALs in a few years. It is not exactly deep rocket science, just basic engineering development and experience curves. If you start off now, you wont even be too far of. And how do you know that EMALs is the future for carriers anyway ? From the US Navy brochures ? What if the US Navy decides that EMALs aren't worth it anyways. So the geniuses who paid for the Maglevs in China will have egg on the face and be sent to the Chinese Gulags?

The rest of your arguments is standard Indian fare and discussed thousands of times already. Given a Sophie's Choice of being born a Chinese farmer or an Indian farmer, I'll bet on being a "Panda serf".

Lets just agree to disagree on that. . An Indian farmer owns the land he lives on, owns the house he lives on, has freedom of conscience , votes, worships as he pleases, has actually a lot of friends and relatives. A "Panda Serf" has none of this. And in the end, if the Indian farmer wants to move to the city, he just have to take a train or bus and land up there, while the 'Panda Serf" will need to line up at the nearest Commie Party office to get a "Hukou"

[wong]

This is from Wikipedia:

"Towards the end of the Ming Dynasty, the Great Wall helped defend the empire against the Manchu invasions that began around 1600. Even after the loss of all of Liaodong, the Ming army under the command of Yuan Chonghuan held off the Manchus at the heavily fortified Shanhaiguan pass, preventing the Manchus from entering the Chinese heartland. The Manchus were finally able to cross the Great Wall in 1644, after Beijing had fallen to Li Zicheng's rebels, and the gates at Shanhaiguan were opened by the commanding Ming general Wu Sangui, who hoped to use the Manchus to expel the rebels from Beijing. The Manchus quickly seized Beijing, and defeated both the rebel-founded Shun Dynasty and the remaining Ming resistance, establishing the Qing Dynasty rule over all of China."

So the Great Wall worked for a while... The civilization that built the Great Wall is still around, which means it must have done something. That's more than I can say for the people that built the pyramids, stonehenge, Mayan temples, Indus Valley ruins, et cetera.

People in China claim they got tech transfer from the Shanghai maglev. Since EMALS and maglev trains use similar technology, I don't see why it's so unbelievable.

Stimulus is stimulus. The Chinese spent a lot on HSR and they have something to show for it. This, in my opinion, is a much better use of government funds than a trillion dollar shadow stimulus for the US military-industrial complex each year (remember, 2011 Chinese tax revenue = 2011 US tax revenue = $1.6 Trillion).

Here's the part I don't understand, if HSR is so horrible and Indian think it's such a waste of money, why do you want it and why are you funding Indian HSR feasibility studies??

[abhischekcc]

The people who built the Indus Valley Civilization are still around, and despite the multi billion dollar efforts of everybody from Vatican/CIA to Saudi/ISI to PLA/CCP, we are still fighting and in the end, we WILL prevail.

[pankajs]

Instant view: China unexpectedly cuts interest rates

(Reuters) - China's central bank cut benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points in a surprise move on Thursday to shore up slackening economic growth, its first rate cut since the depths of the 2008/09 financial crisis.

The consensus view of economists had been that the PBOC would refrain from an outright cut to interest rates in 2012 and instead cut the required reserve ratio (RRR) of the country's banks.

[Suraj]

So the Great Wall worked for a while... The civilization that built the Great Wall is still around, which means it must have done something. That's more than I can say for the people that built the pyramids, stonehenge, Mayan temples, Indus Valley ruins, et cetera.

Dude, the successors of the Indus Valley Civilization are running this forum

The Great Wall in it's current form was build in the 14th century Ming dynasty era - it's 700 years old; the IVC was in 3000BC. Besides, let's talk utility - you build a wall across your entire country, a stupendous feat no question, and it only protects you for 40 years ? How many man years did it take to build ? Unfortunately the French didn't learn anything from China, and built a Maginot Line themselves that was about as useful.

There's a whole lot of stuff built around the 1300s that's still around in India. An example of something built well before the Great Wall that's still functioning: here you go. And this was in South India, far removed from the epicenter of the Mauryan Empire of its era.

[vina]

The Great Wall in it's current forum was build in the 14th century Ming dynasty era - it's 700 years old; the IVC was in 3000BC. Besides, let's talk utility - you build a wall across your entire country, a stupendous feat no question, and it only protects you for 40 years ? How many man years did it take to build ? Unfortunately the French didn't learn anything from China, and built a Maginot Line themselves that was about as useful.

Well, the Chinese Great wall was not the first idea. The Romans built the Hadrian wall when they occupied the British isles some 2000 odd years ago for 400 years.And like the Chinese, that was precisely to prevent the "Northern Barbarians" that inhabited what is now Scotland from attacking what is now England. Yes, you can still see it today after all these years. Granted that the Chinese wall is bigger and longer, but the idea is no means unique.

[vina]

So the Great Wall worked for a while... The civilization that built the Great Wall is still around, which means it must have done something.

Hmm . Here I was thinking after watching the movie "The Last Emperor" that Pu Yi was actually a Manchu! And a lot of the B grade Kung Fu movies are about Shaolin defending the Cantonese from the "Evil" Manchus. So what exactly did the "folks who built the Great Wall" do until the the mid 90s? Be slaves under the hated "Manchu Barbarians", that the great wall was supposed to stop in the first place ?

People in China claim they got tech transfer from the Shanghai maglev. Since EMALS and maglev trains use similar technology, I don't see why it's so unbelievable.

Well, it is like saying that when the transistor was first invented by Shockley, he actually meant for it to be used to make LED bulks and not the diodes for circuits.

Here's the part I don't understand, if HSR is so horrible and Indian think it's such a waste of money, why do you want it and why are you funding Indian HSR feasibility studies??

Here they want to build dedicated freight corridors . The high speed rail will be only for short haul regional stuff in dense corridors only. You are not going to see the Bangalore to Delhi on HSR kind of stuff here like what China has done. For distances above some 3 to 4 hrs running time, I doubt the HSR competes at all with airlines.