PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

sha · Post by **sha** » 13 Jun 2012 11:27

After read so many posts that compares China in 2004 and India in 2012, I can't help wondering what happned on this forum in 2004. I'm not sure whether the forum existed then, but if it did, I can guess the most popular topics must be :
1. The size of China economy was actually the same size of India economy(The GDP gap is not wide then). People here will pove it ideologically and mathmatically without further argument. Evil CPC cooked statistics ( Shanghai statistics was always on the lips) and democatic India goverment under-reported its GDP numbers. As usual, lots of math was done to prove the point. India'ns are great at numbers, I have to admit. Anymay they invented them long time ago.
2. China's banks suffered by bad loan and were actally bankrupt, which would lead to the callapse of China.
3. India's IT and service oriented model is far superior than China's sweat-shop industrialization model.
4. India is democatic, free and open country, but if you didn't agree with the points above on this forum , you must be CPC drone or mind brainwashed.

My guess is just for sun and please don't take it seriousely.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 13 Jun 2012 12:14

^ dear sha,

Looks like forum jingoes have deeply hurt your feelings. solly about that.

In any case, why do you expect accolades and to be feted and lauded on here anyway? That is something I don't understand. Is someone forcing you to come here? Else why bother unless CCP pays you an allowance to come and troll about.

We Indians for all the noise we make are fairly transparent. We berate & criticize our own government and society and shortcomings quite a lot. We praise what we see is genuine, sincere, sustainable progress made elsewhere. That's how we are and we owe that in no small measure to living in an open society and having to build consensus to get almost anything done.

wong · Post by **wong** » 13 Jun 2012 14:38

KLP Dubey wrote:
So now the "lending disease" will infect the PRC's small and medium sectors too ? Amazed you are presenting this as good news - seems more like a sign of new levels of desperation in Beijing.

China’s current Five-Year Plan calls for industrial wages to rise 13 percent a year through 2015, and some cities have been raising their minimum wages even faster.

I like how you guys deacribe the most successful economy in the world for 30+ years running and has uplifted hundreds of million of poor people as a "lending diseases." China is a creditor nation. You can't go broke borrowing from yourself. Let's hope India never suffers such a "disease".

You missed the 40% raise for Foxconn employees and the most important point of the article: China is (Not Will) raising productivity to match rising wages.

vina · Post by **vina** » 13 Jun 2012 16:30

You can't go broke borrowing from yourself (1). Let's hope India never suffers such a "disease".

You missed the 40% raise for Foxconn employees and the most important point of the article: China is (Not Will) raising productivity to match rising wages(2).

(1) - You can
and
(2) - I see no evidence of productivity rise in China on the scale you are talking about.. And that is how you WILL go broke. For eg, in the celebrated "FoxConn" case of 40% rise in wages, productivity sure as hell didn't rise 40%. If it did, Fruit Co would have swooped in on Foxconn and dictated price cuts.

wong · Post by **wong** » 13 Jun 2012 17:20

^^^^

(1) give 1 example of a creditor nation going bankrupt. Japan is probably the closest thing, but the Yen is stronger than ever and no one is running from JGB

(2) Fruit Co. Enjoys 50% margins. Labor is 5% or less. And yes, there is 50% productivity increases. Automation is forestalling the rise of the next China. That's the whole point of the article.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 13 Jun 2012 22:10

At some point Panda's have to explain how they can be the most successful nation for 30 years and still be dirt poor by western standards at the same time.
--------------------------------------------------

I still don't think Sha understands the clunkers he keeps dropping on pay. BTW I have it on good authority that a line worker w/ 1 year experience at Foxxcon Chennai works no more than 40 hours a week for Rs 12,000-Rs14,000 per month right now. Even at this pay they suffer a 20% attrition rate as people move to better less stressful jobs.

VikramS had dug this up last time around. Keep in mind they claim a GDP 4 times India's.

Following the latest rise, which will take full effect from October 1 (2011), the basic salary for production-line workers at Foxconn’s will have risen from 900 renminbi (£91.30) per month two weeks ago to 2,000 renminbi (£203).

I think it was shock to Indians to know just how underpaid the Panda Serfs are. Something we must credit Sha for pointing out, it is doubtful we would have discovered that without his diligence. Thank u Sha.

Some supel powel.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

I have my doubts on China being a creditor nation. Japan & Germany run their surpluses because they are more productive than others. For unit of resources consumed they produce more. This is not true of Panda at all. What Panda is doing is confiscating the productivity of it workers and then handing it over to the West.

Take that I-Phone, only $2 of the profits go to Panda. Of which Panda overlords confiscate $1 and hands $1 over to the serfs to divide amongst themselves. Japan and Germany owned the actual I-Phone and the technology behind it. Panda on the other hand is always several steps behind. There is the puffed up self important illusion of being a surplus nation without any of the underpinnings.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 13 Jun 2012 22:11

vina wrote:(2) - I see no evidence of productivity rise in China on the scale you are talking about.. And that is how you WILL go broke. For eg, in the celebrated "FoxConn" case of 40% rise in wages, productivity sure as hell didn't rise 40%. If it did, Fruit Co would have swooped in on Foxconn and dictated price cuts.

You don't see it because there isn't any such phenomenon. Most of the "productivity rises" are just results of commie-sponsored bailout schemes/scams/shams tom-tommed as "achievements" by propaganda monkeys such as those hanging off the BRF "ashwattha".

Best Wishes,

KL

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 13 Jun 2012 22:22

wong wrote:(1) give 1 example of a creditor nation going bankrupt. Japan is probably the closest thing, but the Yen is stronger than ever and no one is running from JGB

Why make a big show about being a "creditor" nation when your biggest "debtor" nation is busy moving almost their entire naval fleet to your backyard in the near future to kick your azz when they feel like it. Needless to say a good chunk of that naval fleet is funded by the "debt". So what is the use of being a creditor nation if you can't shoo off threats from your debtors by brandishing your "creditor stick". I have yet to see a "successful creditor" tolerating continuous harassment/intimidations/threats/humiliation by "debtors".

Now go back and consult the propaganda manual on how to respond. Hint: In your response, make sure to include a harangue on western credit agencies.

Namaskar,

KL

Raja Bose · Post by **Raja Bose** » 13 Jun 2012 22:53

KLP Dubey wrote:
wong wrote:(1) give 1 example of a creditor nation going bankrupt. Japan is probably the closest thing, but the Yen is stronger than ever and no one is running from JGB
So what is the use of being a creditor nation if you can't shoo off threats from your debtors by brandishing your "creditor stick". I have yet to see a "successful creditor" tolerating continuous harassment/intimidations/threats/humiliation by "debtors".

KLPD ji, as the saying goes "If I owe you a Dollar, it is my problem. If I owe you a Trillion Dollars, it is your problem!". I guess our chipanda drones haven't recognized this yet.

wong · Post by **wong** » 13 Jun 2012 22:59

Theo_Fidel wrote:At some point Panda's have to explain how they can be the most successful nation for 30 years and still be dirt poor by western standards -

Actually, there are many things in China now that makes the US look poor. Beijing subway vs. Washington Metro. Beijing Subway is computer controlled. It glides to a perfect non-jerk stop every time. It has video screens. It has safety gates at the station so a crazy homeless person can't push you onto the track.

Washington Metro breaks down everyday. Yes, every day. There are actually small train and station fires. Station elevators and escalators are usually down for repairs. Forget all the safety and comfort features. Not even close. They can't even get the Metro train doors closed during rush hour. The American solution ?? Everybody out if we can't close the doors.

Most of us visit China or America often, we have plenty of points of comparison. Chinese infrastructure already surpasses the US on many levels. Not exactly dirt poor.

wong · Post by **wong** » 13 Jun 2012 23:09

KLP Dubey wrote:
wong wrote:(1) give 1 example of a creditor nation going bankrupt. Japan is probably the closest thing, but the Yen is stronger than ever and no one is running from JGB
Why make a big show about being a "creditor" nation when your biggest "debtor" nation is busy moving almost their entire naval fleet to your backyard in the near future to kick your azz when they feel like it. Needless to say a good chunk of that naval fleet is funded by the "debt". So what is the use of being a creditor nation if you can't shoo off threats from your debtors by brandishing your "creditor stick". I have yet to see a "successful creditor" tolerating continuous harassment/intimidations/threats/humiliation by "debtors".

Now go back and consult the propaganda manual on how to respond. Hint: In your response, make sure to include a harangue on western credit agencies.

Namaskar,

KL

The US couldn't beat China in the Korean war when it was dirt poor and coming off 40 years of civil war and invasion. It's really not even a possibility now. The US doesn't even dare go kick Iran and North Korea's ass and has trouble fighting illiterate Afghans who only have an AK-47 and one goat (Afghan MRE). Forgot about US fighting China. That's your Indian delusion.

China is a massive creditor nation. The Bank of International Settlements tells me so. But Haters are gonna hate. My statement stands, a country can't go broke borrowing from itself.

wong · Post by **wong** » 13 Jun 2012 23:16

Raja Bose wrote:
KLPD ji, as the saying goes "If I owe you a Dollar, it is my problem. If I owe you a Trillion Dollars, it is your problem!". I guess our chipanda drones haven't recognized this yet.

Trite. Tell that to the Argentinians, who still can't access international capital markets 10 years later.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 13 Jun 2012 23:23

I have made a list of "numbers" to refer to your various posts I see in the thread. Henceforth I shall be using these numbers in my replies. I shall update list as and when any new ones crawl out of the woodwork. No offense, but it is easier for me to "number" you all since your posts all look the same. I am sure the CPC "numbers" you anyway.

wong = PM1 (propaganda monkey #1)
sha = PM2
ashi = PM3

Dear PM1,

wong wrote:The US couldn't beat China in the Korean war when it was dirt poor and coming off 40 years of civil war and invasion. It's really not even a possibility now. The US doesn't even dare go kick Iran and North Korea's ass and has trouble fighting illiterate Afghans who only have an AK-47 and one goat (Afghan MRE). Forgot about US fighting China. That's your Indian delusion.

This is the economy thread, so I will leave this topic here. Suffice it to say that the US has no "plans" to attack China, but it is a permanent and existential threat at many levels (financial, political, military, everything) for your commie masters. So forget about going bankrupt or not, there are much worse fates to consider.

China is a massive creditor nation. The Bank of International Settlements tells me so. But Haters are gonna hate. My statement stands, a country can't go broke borrowing from itself.

You do not get it. So what if you are massive creditor. Nothing changes on the ground. The European central bank is also a massive creditor today. I do not see back-slapping all around.

Good day,
KL

wong · Post by **wong** » 13 Jun 2012 23:34

^^^^

Actually it's just Germany and Norway are creditors. Switzerland is not part of the ECB. All three economies are doing great. The rest of the Europeans are basically debtors or flat, so again your example is inaccurate. So, yes, it matters "on the ground". Only Argentinians and Indians don't think it matters.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 13 Jun 2012 23:41

wong wrote:The American solution ?? Everybody out if we can't close the doors..

Of course Panda solution is we can't close door... ..Lets drive anyway!

wong · Post by **wong** » 13 Jun 2012 23:52

^^^^

Like I said, it's computer controlled. The computer drove off. That's why they had to notify the station attendant lady at the end. Teething problems. That train is still nicer than any American subway train.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 13 Jun 2012 23:59

wong wrote:China is a massive creditor nation. The Bank of International Settlements tells me so. But Haters are gonna hate. My statement stands, a country can't go broke borrowing from itself.

That may be true in chinomics but in economics it will cause massive problems some day especially if the "internally" borrowed money is spent on highways to nowhere and Ghost towns.

http://www.chinapost.com.tw/business/as ... points.htm
Fitch points to huge public debt as agency takes down credit rating for Japan by two notches

TOKYO -- Fitch cut Japan's credit rating by two notches on Tuesday, citing the country's massive public debt, as Tokyo struggles to set the world's third-largest economy back on a growth track. The international agency downgraded its long-term foreign currency rating to “A+” from “AA,” with a negative outlook, saying it reflected “growing risks for Japan's sovereign credit profile as a result of high and rising public debt ratios.”

Japan has an eye-watering national debt that amounts to more than twice its gross domestic product, the highest among industrialized nations, a problem that would usually mean paying a high premium to borrow funds. But its bonds are mostly held by domestic, long-term investors, meaning Japan pays low interest rates on its debt and is less vulnerable to howls of criticism from foreign buyers over the nation's fiscal management — a fate that has befallen Greece.

Going by your logic, isn't it strange for Fitch to comment on the level of domestic debt of Japan and factor that into the credit rating. The explanation is rather simple. Fitch is going by economics as understood by the rest of the world and not by chinomics as understood in China. Sure domestically held debt shields nations from the harsh reality of world financial markets for longer BUT eventually like forces of nature the market will win and the nation will come to grief.

wong · Post by **wong** » 14 Jun 2012 00:11

^^^^

Yeah, because only computers in China have software bugs. Super IT India, who can't even place one person in Google Code Jam finals, has zero software bugs.

I didn't say daily fires literally, but there was two last month on the same day for sure. One on a train and one at the station. I know because I was going to that station and the small fire was causing delays.

wong · Post by **wong** » 14 Jun 2012 00:16

pankajs wrote:
wong wrote:China is a massive creditor nation. The Bank of International Settlements tells me so. But Haters are gonna hate. My statement stands, a country can't go broke borrowing from itself.
That may be true in chinomics but in economics it will cause massive problems some day especially if the "internally" borrowed money is spent on highways to nowhere and Ghost towns.

http://www.chinapost.com.tw/business/as ... points.htm
Fitch points to huge public debt as agency takes down credit rating for Japan by two notches
TOKYO -- Fitch cut Japan's credit rating by two notches on Tuesday, citing the country's massive public debt, as Tokyo struggles to set the world's third-largest economy back on a growth track. The international agency downgraded its long-term foreign currency rating to “A+” from “AA,” with a negative outlook, saying it reflected “growing risks for Japan's sovereign credit profile as a result of high and rising public debt ratios.”

Japan has an eye-watering national debt that amounts to more than twice its gross domestic product, the highest among industrialized nations, a problem that would usually mean paying a high premium to borrow funds. But its bonds are mostly held by domestic, long-term investors, meaning Japan pays low interest rates on its debt and is less vulnerable to howls of criticism from foreign buyers over the nation's fiscal management — a fate that has befallen Greece.
Going by your logic, isn't it strange for Fitch to comment on the level of domestic debt of Japan and factor that into the credit rating. The explanation is rather simple. Fitch is going by economics as understood by the rest of the world and not by chinomics as understood in China. Sure domestically held debt shields nations from the harsh reality of world financial markets for longer BUT eventually like forces of nature the market will win and the nation will come to grief.

I already mentioned Japan. AA = a PD of 0.04%. A+ = a PD of 0.05%.

Fitch defines A+ as a High to Very High fundamental credit.

I would take this kind of Chinomics over Hindunomics.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 14 Jun 2012 00:22

wong wrote:I already mentioned Japan. AA = a PD of 0.04%. A+ = a PD of 0.05%.

Fitch defines A+ as a High to Very High fundamental credit.

I would take this kind of Chinomics over Hindunomics.

Lets hear from someone who should know better than both of us about "internal" public debt. (From about mid 2010)
Japan PM warns public debt spells future 'risk of collapse'

TOKYO: Japan's new Prime Minister Naoto Kan on Friday pledged a fiscal policy overhaul to reduce the country's massive public debt mountain, warning of a Greece-style meltdown.

"Our country's outstanding public debt is huge," said the centre-left leader in his first policy address since taking office Tuesday. "Our public finances have been the worst of any developed country."

Japan's public debt, after decades of stimulus spending and low tax receipts, is nearing twice the size of gross domestic product and has forced governments to issue ever more debt to pay for its outlays.

"It is difficult to continue our fiscal policies by heavily relying on the issuance of government bonds," said Kan, the former finance minister.

"Like the confusion in the eurozone triggered by Greece, there is a risk of collapse if we leave the increase of the public debt untouched and then lose the trust of the bond markets."

Kan has in the past advocated increasing the consumption tax, although he has not specified plans that may prove unpopular with voters ahead of upper house elections planned for July 11.

"It is unavoidable to launch a full reform of the tax system," he said, also calling for a bipartisan debate on fiscal reform.

"If we maintain the current level of issuance of new bonds, outstanding debt will surpass 200 percent of GDP in a few years," he said.

I accept I do not know chinomics but the above is plain commonsense economics from a Japanese and not an Indian.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 14 Jun 2012 00:29

wong wrote:The US couldn't beat China in the Korean war when it was dirt poor and coming off 40 years of civil war and invasion.

The US wasn't there to fight China in the first place. Remember, you're the one who said they're wonderful Chinese allies who dropped a-bombs on Japan for no other reason than to punish them for being bad boys in China

I find it curious that a war that China barged into and ended up with a million dead grunts counts as a positive in Chinese eyes. We all know what the 'Chinese' side of Korea (NoKo) looks like today, run by the latest Pillsbury doubhboy Kim, compared to what the 'US' side of Korea (SoKo) looks like today.

wong · Post by **wong** » 14 Jun 2012 00:52

Suraj wrote:
wong wrote:The US couldn't beat China in the Korean war when it was dirt poor and coming off 40 years of civil war and invasion.
The US wasn't there to fight China in the first place. Remember, you're the one who said they're wonderful Chinese allies who dropped a-bombs on Japan for no other reason than to punish them for being bad boys in China

I find it curious that a war that China barged into and ended up with a million dead grunts counts as a positive in Chinese eyes. We all know what the 'Chinese' side of Korea (NoKo) looks like today, run by the latest Pillsbury doubhboy Kim, compared to what the 'US' side of Korea (SoKo) looks like today.

Suraj, I'm not doing this WW2 thing again. I said a chain of events. I didn't say US did it for China. I always said it was revenge for Pearl Harbor cloaked in "saving the lives of a full scale invasion".

As for Soko vs. Noko. Noko was ahead economically until the late 1970's despite the US pumping billions into Soko. Soviet Union collapsed. The Kims are crazy and refuse economic reforms and the rest is history. Indians should be happy about Noko refusing reforms, because if they ever do, that giant sucking sounding is US, Japanese and Soko FDI leaving India for Noko. So, you are very welcome.

wong · Post by **wong** » 14 Jun 2012 01:12

Marten wrote:
wong wrote:^^^^

Yeah, because only computers in China have software bugs. Super IT India, who can't even place one person in Google Code Jam finals, has zero software bugs.

I didn't say daily fires literally, but there was two last month on the same day for sure. One on a train and one at the station. I know because I was going to that station and the small fire was causing delays.
I take it you don't like getting nailed for your lies. I also very much doubt you commute on a daily basis on the Metro.
Most of your "expert" opinion is revealed time and again to be just bunkum. Thank you for this opportunity.

You ought to go to Boston and take the oldest Green line or during your innumerable "travels" to Tokyo, check what peak traffic looks like, and how genuinely sophisticated systems function when critical issues like a Driver's door not closing occur. Perhaps your fully automated system code was not copied/stolen - one of the menaces of this new-fangled Agile thingie they practice in those mysterious Super IT places.

PS: OT, for that matter, you should travel on the fully paid-for non-stolen non-cloned Bangalore Metro to know what closed doors metros look like.

This is just typical Indian straw man. Unless Chinese subway trains have their doors opened all the time, this whole argument is in your word, bunkum. One notable malfunction proves nothing. Even Tier 2 Chinese cities have extensive subways now. Who knows where that video came from. It was obviously a notable enough event, someone felt it worthy enough to capture on video and post on Youku. You are debunking nothing. There are Indian train accidents that are so common they are hardly mentioned, even on this forum. Lastly, considering the Chinese government collects almost 8 times the tax revenue of the Indian government, I guarantee you the Beijing subway is more paid for than Bangalore.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 14 Jun 2012 01:19

The question is not the Mal-function, but that the train ran anyway. Even after attendants were notified.

I have to say these conversations are a refreshing insight into the hilarious group think on the mainland.

wong · Post by **wong** » 14 Jun 2012 01:22

pankajs wrote:I accept I do not know chinomics but the above is plain commonsense economics from a Japanese and not an Indian.

Japanese government bonds yield 0.25% on average.
Greek government bonds have an implied yield of 70.00%

Japan does not equal Greece by a long shot. If you don't believe me, I will trade as many Greek bonds as you want for your Japanese Bonds at face value.

wong · Post by **wong** » 14 Jun 2012 01:24

Theo_Fidel wrote:The question is not the Mal-function, but that the train ran anyway. Even after attendants were notified.

I have to say these conversations are a refreshing insight into the hilarious group think on the mainland.

In group think india nothing mal-functions. No software bugs. Only the code they send to the US, but it's all perfect in India. I find your group think equally amusing.

Raja Bose · Post by **Raja Bose** » 14 Jun 2012 02:19

wong wrote:
Raja Bose wrote:
KLPD ji, as the saying goes "If I owe you a Dollar, it is my problem. If I owe you a Trillion Dollars, it is your problem!". I guess our chipanda drones haven't recognized this yet.
Trite. Tell that to the Argentinians, who still can't access international capital markets 10 years later.

No my dear biladel, I am telling this to you since the US is using that specific logic to jerk China by its testimonials and China can't do $hit about it. So much for being the US's largest lender.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 14 Jun 2012 02:55

wong wrote:Suraj, I'm not doing this WW2 thing again. I said a chain of events. I didn't say US did it for China. I always said it was revenge for Pearl Harbor cloaked in "saving the lives of a full scale invasion".

But you still retain the impression that 'the US couldn't beat China in Korea'. That's a pretty absurd characterization. The US wasn't in a declared war with China. All that happened was that China sent millions of grunts across the border into another country's conflict in human waves, and the US was first overwhelmed and pushed back, then hit back and killed so many of them that they got tired of it all and left.

Some wars I actually respect the PRC and PLA for, such as how they outmaneuvered the nationalists at various times during the Chinese Civil War. But the Korean War ? There's no accomplishment in sending waves of conscripts into someone else's war and claiming success on the basis of the other side getting tired of just killing those grunts and walking away, even if it can be justified as a brilliant tactic using some Sun Tzu quote.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 14 Jun 2012 03:42

Suraj wrote:There's no accomplishment in sending waves of conscripts into someone else's war and claiming success on the basis of the other side getting tired of just killing those grunts and walking away, even if it can be justified as a brilliant tactic using some Sun Tzu quote.

Probably off-topic, however: the Pawkees use similar definitions of 'victory' in failed/lost wars with Bharat. PM1 might physically be a Pawkee rather than a chinese drone, or at least it has the same level of intelligence.

KL

zlin · Post by **zlin** » 14 Jun 2012 04:31

Theo_Fidel wrote:
wong wrote:The American solution ?? Everybody out if we can't close the doors..
Of course Panda solution is we can't close door... ..Lets drive anyway!

I have to admit, those coward Shanghaiese took too much fuss about an unclosed metro door.

Comparing to our brave Mumbai train riders, unclosed metro doors are everyday norm. Just have some fun

wong · Post by **wong** » 14 Jun 2012 04:58

Suraj wrote:
wong wrote:Suraj, I'm not doing this WW2 thing again. I said a chain of events. I didn't say US did it for China. I always said it was revenge for Pearl Harbor cloaked in "saving the lives of a full scale invasion".
But you still retain the impression that 'the US couldn't beat China in Korea'. That's a pretty absurd characterization. The US wasn't in a declared war with China. All that happened was that China sent millions of grunts across the border into another country's conflict in human waves, and the US was first overwhelmed and pushed back, then hit back and killed so many of them that they got tired of it all and left.

Some wars I actually respect the PRC and PLA for, such as how they outmaneuvered the nationalists at various times during the Chinese Civil War. But the Korean War ? There's no accomplishment in sending waves of conscripts into someone else's war and claiming success on the basis of the other side getting tired of just killing those grunts and walking away, even if it can be justified as a brilliant tactic using some Sun Tzu quote.

Suraj, the human wave thing is a myth. Urban legend from scared, pee in pants US serviceman in Korea. It never happened.

In military strategy, Mao is the equal of Sun Tzu. Mao was a horrible economist and couldn't run an economy better than Zimbabwe, but he is the godfather of modern irregular warfare. His writings are part of the coursework on irregular warfare at US military academies. In none of his writing did he advocate the human wave. Here is another person on the Internet who can put it better than I:

/--------------------------------/

"Mao Zedong's doctrine of "human wave attacks" -- having more soldiers than your enemy has bullets -- would not meet China's defense needs in the 21st century."

Way to simplify PLA and Mao...US Army Center for Military History would disagree.

First of all, "human wave attack", in the words of Colonel Roy Appleman of the US Army Historical Detachment, is a "myth". Second of all, PLA rush machine gun nests in waves only when intels are bad or the enemy had already disintergerated. Thrid of all, when Mao said "man over weapon", he meant endurance of the soldiers can overcome PLA deficiencies in mobility, logistics and firepower, not that PLA grunts should be shot in a line. Finally, Mao never thought of the idea of "human wave attacks", his idea is the "mobile warefare", in which the PLA to infiltrate the gaps of the enemy formations and then elinmate them piecemeal.

Just because PLA abondoned the Maoist thinking of "man over weapon" and started to improve mobility, logistics and firepower, don't just assume he has no influnce in modern PLA thinking. On the individual level, the Maoist focus on endurance still makes regular PLA infantry a lot lighter than the US counterpart. On a tactical level, PLA still uses the maneuver smiliar to the concept of "mobile warefare". Finally, Mao's work on "protracted war" is still one of the best works on insurgency and asymmetric warfare. PLA maybe broke free from the the Maoist political dogma, but Mao's influence on Chinese warfighting is not something to be discounted.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 14 Jun 2012 06:41

I'd be very careful before characterizing any aspect of US military capability in 1950 as 'pee in the pants' worthy. That was a time when that country head the world at its feet. They had a military machine, technological base and armaments supply chain (even after the post WW2 drawdown) that could take on and beat the rest of the world if they so intended. Nice sounding Chinese rhetoric, but not factual.

Mao was certainly an astute strategist, but I don't view the Korean War as any testament to his abilities. His regrouping after the Long March ? Sure. But not the Korean War. You could argue the semantics of 'human wave' but losing hundreds of thousands (KIA+WIA) in a war in another country's territory with a 10:1 kill ratio in favor of the US doesn't really speak for any sort of doctrinal brilliance.

Maybe it's a Chinese thing, but any doctrine that doesn't seek to preserve one's own soldiers is not effective strategy. It could either amount to the stereotypical view of masses of Chinese overwhelming fewer western troops, or a more realistic approach where targeted specific positions though relentless attacks my small sets of PLA infantrymen until the UN side ran out of ammunition. The end kill ratio indicates that the approach was not efficient, and it's no surprise that this method was discarded post 1953. Despite the euphoria of the founding of the PRC and the socialist fervor of the masses, there's only so many suckers you can thrust a gun in the hands of and order to the frontlines to die, before they revolt.

Counter-insurgency skill and mobile lightweight infantry is by no means a PLA preserve - the IN has practical hands-on experience with the same, and are arguably more experienced. India, after all, has had it's share of insurgencies going on forever, and yet 65 years later remains a united nation, thanks in no small measure to the ability to manage and take apart these movements.

This discussion is better continued in the Mil forum in the Chinese Miltary Watch thread. Far more knowledgeable posters there to provide a non-Chinese view of the Korean War. You're not on a Chinese site, after all.

wong · Post by **wong** » 14 Jun 2012 06:59

^^^^

The ratio was not 10:1, but 1.6:1. Mao was to violent resistence what your Gandhi was to non-Violent resistance and I say that with pride & a bit of irony. They don't just let anybody be the founding "emperor" of a Chinese dynasty.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_War

Let's agree to disagree about the Korean War too and I won't talk anymore about it.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 14 Jun 2012 07:17

wong wrote:
pankajs wrote:I accept I do not know chinomics but the above is plain commonsense economics from a Japanese and not an Indian.
Japanese government bonds yield 0.25% on average.
Greek government bonds have an implied yield of 70.00%

Japan does not equal Greece by a long shot. If you don't believe me, I will trade as many Greek bonds as you want for your Japanese Bonds at face value.

Japan does not equal Greece by a long shot yet a Japenese Prime Minister who also was a former finance minister said that Japan's massive public debt could lead to a Greece-style meltdown.

Now what was the original point again?

wong wrote:China is a massive creditor nation. The Bank of International Settlements tells me so. But Haters are gonna hate. My statement stands, a country can't go broke borrowing from itself.

And what was the original reply?

pankajs wrote:That may be true in chinomics but in economics it will cause massive problems some day especially if the "internally" borrowed money is spent on highways to nowhere and Ghost towns.

pankajs wrote:Sure domestically held debt shields nations from the harsh reality of world financial markets for longer BUT eventually like forces of nature the market will win and the nation will come to grief.

So a country can go broke borrowing from itself if you listen to the former finance minister of Japan, who should know the dynamics of "internal" debt or as you choose to call it "borrowing from self", given the Japanese "internal" debt as it stands now.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 14 Jun 2012 07:32

wong wrote:The ratio was not 10:1, but 1.6:1. Mao was to violent resistence what your Gandhi was to non-Violent resistance and I say that with pride & a bit of irony. They don't just let anybody be the founding "emperor" of a Chinese dynasty.

I'm comparing PLA vs US Army casuality ratios, not PRC + DPRK vs UN forces + ROK. Both ROK and DPRK undoubtedly lost plenty, as did PLA, but not the UN forces.

vina · Post by **vina** » 14 Jun 2012 07:35

Like I said, it's computer controlled. The computer drove off. That's why they had to notify the station attendant lady at the end. Teething problems. That train is still nicer than any American subway train.

Do you even understand what you are talking about ? For instance , the Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) has been "driverless" and "computer controlled" ever since the day it rolled out and that wasn't 10 years ago , but nearly a full 40 years ago. The ATS/ATP/ATC kind of things go back nearly a 100 years and fully electronic modern versions go back some 50 years. Just because Panda managed to clone/steal some of those recently, doesn't mean it is some new hot sh*t.

For instance, all the metros in India (including the latest one in Bangalore) , have state of the art train signalling and control systems , that probably are better than anything anywhere in the world (yeah, they are brand new, the other systems in other parts of the world would have been in operation for some time, some going back decades) and yes, the doors do actually close before the trains run.

In fact, this "new signalling" kind of thing is the kind of root cause factors that enable economies like China, india and earlier S.Korea, S.E Asia to 'leap frog" and grow faster than more developed economies. You get the benefit of importing and using the stuff developed and someone else's learning curve and experience.

For eg, if you were to set up an airline today, you would buy A320 /B737 and that too the latest vintage, with latest engines, not the Puss Moth or Ford Trimotor kind of thing they started off with in 1910 /whenever. The fact with the kind of safety culture on display on the Shanghai metro, I would be mortally scared of flying any airline in PRC.

vina · Post by **vina** » 14 Jun 2012 07:42

wong wrote: It was obviously a notable enough event, someone felt it worthy enough to capture on video and post on Youku.

Ah. Pity isn't it. Door closing and opening every time billions of time is "statistic" oh, how boring. But door open is a major "incident" . Same thing with planes. Taking off and landing millions of time normally, oh how boring, but one crash after take off like one from JFK crashing in Long Island sound, the media helicopters will be in the air, the story will run non stop round the clock.. all of that is normal in a democratic society with an open press (in China, the news will be suppressed, the entire plane buried in the sea/riverbed/landfill/whatever and then dribbles of news start leaking somewhere).

But such a thing is precisely why if the door doesn't close, in other societies, the train won't be allowed to run! Not so in China it seems in subway systems.

Lastly, considering the Chinese government collects almost 8 times the tax revenue of the Indian government, I guarantee you the Beijing subway is more paid for than Bangalore.

I see, like the HSR is "more paid" because the Chinese govt collects 8 times the tax revenue ? (okay, not accounting for the fact that land sales is a major part of PRC govt revenues, land and country side coughs up quite a bit of tax.. etc.etc).

wrdos · Post by **wrdos** » 14 Jun 2012 08:56

It is interesting to hear people here worrying about the safety issue of Shanghai Metro, despite the fact that railways in Bombay are killing innocents on today more than the Shanghai Metro did during the past 10 years and combined.

member_20292 · Post by **member_20292** » 14 Jun 2012 09:36

wrdos....

This forum discusses news from china. Most newspapers report bad news. Hence the focus on bad news from china.

At the same time....someone dies in a bombay metro....thats sad. Someone dies in Shanghai..thats sad too. But...that does not make a third party observers' freedom to choose between what news he is focussing on. Thats his choice...be it bombay or be in china.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 14 Jun 2012 10:23

we also discuss good news from china, though not in the worshipping way the drones would like us to