Intelligence & National Security Discussion

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 19 Jun 2012 03:03

ShyamD, Tracing anti-CM posters is simple police work hardly calls for intelligence!

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 19 Jun 2012 03:33

Sir, think about it. Someone from Guj police/ intel has to do the investigation, someone has to monitor such things and do something about it. He blatantly has a cell to conduct this sort of activity. In TN, I know the intel wing does this sort of thing

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 19 Jun 2012 11:29

Lol... Actually it's quite obvious where that info has come from. But like any story it may not be true.
Quite surprised that you think NDA are all innocent and can't do no wrong.

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 19 Jun 2012 11:55

shyamd wrote:Sir, think about it. Someone from Guj police/ intel has to do the investigation, someone has to monitor such things and do something about it. He blatantly has a cell to conduct this sort of activity. In TN, I know the intel wing does this sort of thing

Gathering "political intelligence" has been on in many states, and the Special Branch CID are the folks who generally do this. And if I am not mistaken even here there could be specific officers who are more closer/loyal to the ruling govt. In TN I have seen that there is a "shunting out" of police officers once a new regime takes charge. That is when officers once in charge of city police divisions land up as refugee camp commandants etc

.

Just yesterday in Socialist Republic of Kerala, around 15 odd police men (from ASI to CPOs) found themselves booted out to another Police range. Reason, they actively leaked news about police operations to the commie leadership in Kannur Dt. Generally for ASIs and below transfer are always within their mother district.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 19 Jun 2012 12:58

Yup that's true. Someone was saying that something similar should happen in the delhi ministries because officials won't let one side do everything they want to do. Doubt it will happen.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 19 Jun 2012 13:16

sum wrote: Finally, when veteran Kashmir leader Karan Singh demanded the same, Mukherjee erupted: "Do you understand what you are all saying? If we do that (attack Pakistan), foreign forces will enter Kashmir the next day. We have kept them out of Kashmir all these years. And now you want us to invite them in?"
What foreign forces is he talking about?

Likely UN brokered cease fire incase there is a war which might lead to UN observes or worst UN forces monitoring those cease fire. Most countries would support UN doing something.

Teaching Pakistan a lesson is a great idea but no one figured out how to do that yet.

sum · Post by **sum** » 19 Jun 2012 14:11

Likely UN brokered cease fire incase there is a war which might lead to UN observes or worst UN forces monitoring those cease fire. Most countries would support UN doing something.

Pathetic mentality for so-called largest standing army etc if this is the line of thinking of our planners.

Can now safely guess what our response will be for the next 26/11 type brazen escalation.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 19 Jun 2012 14:48

Didnt you hear Chidambarm explicitly say there wont be any war between India and Pakistan , thats the official GOI line.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 19 Jun 2012 20:37

shyamd, Political intelligence geneally means monitoring opposition parties to find out their strategy and tactics etc.

In above case its a simple CID investigation (pooch tash = inquiries) being labelled as intelligence. It shows the intelligence of the Ind Express in labelling it as such.
The Harayana Police were stationed in front of Rajiv Gandhi's house during the UF govt (early 90s) and that was sureveillance on who comes and goes to his house. That is an intelligence operation.

Surya · Post by **Surya** » 19 Jun 2012 20:59

Quite surprised that you think NDA are all innocent and can't do no wrong.

did someone say that???

WTF am I missing??

as the Presidential election tamasha shows

all are rotten.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 19 Jun 2012 21:55

ramana wrote:shyamd, Political intelligence geneally means monitoring opposition parties to find out their strategy and tactics etc.

In above case its a simple CID investigation (pooch tash = inquiries) being labelled as intelligence. It shows the intelligence of the Ind Express in labelling it as such.
The Harayana Police were stationed in front of Rajiv Gandhi's house during the UF govt (early 90s) and that was sureveillance on who comes and goes to his house. That is an intelligence operation.

Sir. Be it CID or intelligence , someone from Gujarat police has made the effort to find out who was behind the posters. Probably involved half a day of work. Those posters aren't illegal.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 19 Jun 2012 22:00

pandyan wrote:
shyamd wrote: But like any story it may not be true.
Quite surprised that you think NDA are all innocent and can't do no wrong.

Chief minister is supposed to know the state of the state. I am surprised that you find it shocking.

Ummm... Does that involve finding out who are behind posters that are inimical to the CMs position as a political leader? which probably had little to do with the security of the state and it's residents.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 19 Jun 2012 22:04

Surya wrote:
Quite surprised that you think NDA are all innocent and can't do no wrong.
did someone say that???

WTF am I missing??

as the Presidential election tamasha shows

all are rotten.

Exactly! But there is some sort of assumption on BR and with many posters that things will be different under NDA and NDA politicians can't be involved in wrongdoing. They are all at it as they say

PratikDas · Post by **PratikDas** » 19 Jun 2012 22:42

Austin wrote: Teaching Pakistan a lesson is a great idea but no one figured out how to do that yet.

Of course, the armed forces would disagree with you because it is their job to be prepared to do just that. The plan would also include real risks. GoI might find the real risks to be unacceptable for a variety of reasons. GoI might then generate a whole bunch of unreal risks (excuses) to ensure that the national discussion that is sure to ensue doesn't delve into the real risks or into GoI's unwillingness to take on real risks in response to demonstrated offensive moves by the enemy.

The plan is never going to be revealed. Not having the plan spelled out in media doesn't mean there isn't one.

PratikDas · Post by **PratikDas** » 20 Jun 2012 02:58

Austin wrote:Didnt you hear Chidambarm explicitly say there wont be any war between India and Pakistan , thats the official GOI line.

Chidambaram says a lot of things, all worthless.

Times of India: Another 26/11 will invite retaliation: Chidambaram
Nov 2, 2009

MADURAI: Taking a tough stance against Pakistan-based terrorist groups, Union home minister P Chidambaram late on Saturday warned that any more 26/11-type terrorist attacks on the country would invite fierce retaliation.

"Our strength to take on terrorism from foreign soil is increasing by the day. I've been warning Pakistan not to play any more games. Let Mumbai be the last such game. If they carry out any more attacks on India, they will not only be defeated, but we will also retaliate with the force of a sledgehammer,'' he told a public meeting in Madurai.

He was addressing Congress workers in Tamil at a public meeting held in connection with the 25th anniversary of Indira Gandhi's assassination.

Union home minister P Chidambaram said successive governments had underestimated the Naxalites in the last 12 to 13 years. ''The Naxalites were underestimated by the Congress in the last five years and the BJP before that and now they have spread like poison in many states including Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. The Naxals, in their politburo meeting on June 15, had resolved to take over the country's governance through armed revolution and this is something that cannot be allowed,'' he said.

''Till my last drop of blood, I'll not allow armed revolution or terrorism and violence to overwhelm us in India,'' he said, adding that both NDA and UPA governments at the Centre had ''underestimated'' the Naxalites.

''As for Pakistani terrorists, they will be dealt with severely if they attempt to meddle with India again,'' he said. ''But, unlike the Pakistanis, Naxalites are not our enemies, they are our own people, they can fight for their rights, but they should do so through democratic means,'' said Chidambaram. ''I am not asking them to lay down their arms. But let them keep their arms silent and come with them for talks,'' he said.

It is also very easy to call the Mumbai terrorist attack a game in Madurai. I dare him to say that in Mumbai.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 20 Jun 2012 03:07

What will Bal Thackeray do?

PratikDas · Post by **PratikDas** » 20 Jun 2012 05:22

I didn't have Bal Thackeray in mind. I never do. This is not about Pro-Hindu vs. Secular. This is about GoI calling a terrorist strike a game because of not being able to do anything in retaliation. I hope you will not trivialise the issue.

Chidambaram calling the Mumbai attack a game in Mumbai will hurt INC's re-election prospects in Maharashtra significantly, wouldn't you agree?

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 20 Jun 2012 06:36

PratikDas wrote: Chidambaram calling the Mumbai attack a game in Mumbai will hurt INC's re-election prospects in Maharashtra significantly, wouldn't you agree?

Well past experiences show that it won't. R R Patil's statement, "Bade Bade shehron me aisi ghatna hoti rehti hai" didn't make them lose the next election. Frankly I have lost faith in the Indian electorate.

Surya · Post by **Surya** » 20 Jun 2012 08:31

yeah the electorate accepts a temporary shuffling and then the same joker comes back

but then it seems all democracies have dumb or dumber electorates

look at the US

look at France, Bartania, Oz

(except so far for the Canadians)

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 20 Jun 2012 10:32

pandyan wrote:Looks like you are not aware of indian poster laws. Every poster is required by law to have a contact information. You dont need a special intelligence cell to find out who printed and postered the posters. you are confusing things and spreading rumours.

Sir, that is the law. But in cases like spreading hatred against any one, the people who made the posters would not have this information. Because it is easier to track them down. If contact details are given the printer gets the first call from the police and he would give the information of the people who placed the order. Here the police have to work a little harder in case of anonymous posters. But again they will have clues as to who may be behind and can get them.

The only posters, bill boards etc. where I have seen Printer details fully published seems to be the election campaign stuff. And then leaflets put into news papers as advertisements.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 20 Jun 2012 12:52

PratikDas wrote:Of course, the armed forces would disagree with you because it is their job to be prepared to do just that. The plan would also include real risks. GoI might find the real risks to be unacceptable for a variety of reasons. GoI might then generate a whole bunch of unreal risks (excuses) to ensure that the national discussion that is sure to ensue doesn't delve into the real risks or into GoI's unwillingness to take on real risks in response to demonstrated offensive moves by the enemy.

The plan is never going to be revealed. Not having the plan spelled out in media doesn't mean there isn't one.

Armed forces are always prepared for eventuality in every country but war is too serious to be left alone for the armed forces to decide.

Having observed GOI response in past 20 years that i have followed it from Mumbai blast in 93 to 26/11 and subsequent attack , its quite clear that they wont go for any all out war , the situation changing drastically since 98 when Paki went Nuclear along with us.

Most likely the next big terrorist strike ( similar to scale of 26/11 or 93/94 Mumbai Blast ) might involve a small targeted retaliation by IAF or a co-operation by Pakistani due to Intl pressure to keep it under control ..... the worst case scenario is we do nothing and things just go the 26/11 way.

Looking at GOI , I can bet on my life it would be the latter , the economic consequences suffered by War will be very damaging for India not the mention war itself is unpredictable affair , where we can start it but no body knows where it ends.

Unless one is some one like US with all might and right under your control , its difficult to control and have things work out as you wish , infact in Iraq invasion of a vastly inferior force , they still suffered 4000 odd casulty in subsequent operation in the country against a country that had no Nukes or used CBW , with Paki you never know , hence the cold feet by GOI

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 20 Jun 2012 13:01

It's a bit obvious that it would be a party worker that gave the name assuming that they gave a name in the first place... Or not a fake one. Anyway, special cell or no cell it goes to prove the point that Guj police is conducting activities it probably shouldn't be just like the rest, those posters weren't illegal or from a banned group. First of all someone has to tell someone that these posters are in Delhi, then that someone has to do something to find out who it is. End of story. Believe it or not this is happening in every state.

And pandyan as for your comment about going "hanky panky", I wasn't referring to you specifically, but it is genuinely some people's thoughts of the NDA on this forum!

PratikDas · Post by **PratikDas** » 20 Jun 2012 13:06

Austin ji, I wouldn't want you to bet your life on this anyway not only because I value your contribution but also because we are already evidently prepared to lose many more lives as it is.

And yes, I value your contribution despite the T-90 barrel ToT debate, but our online interactions fade in significance to what has crystallised during my interactions with you and Ramana ji. It is disappointing to say the least and ironic considering this forum's name is Bharat-Rakshak. The Raksha part seems illusive. Instead of investing in the Armed forces, we might be better off investing in life insurance.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 20 Jun 2012 21:13

PratikDas wrote:...
Chidambaram calling the Mumbai attack a game in Mumbai will hurt INC's re-election prospects in Maharashtra significantly, wouldn't you agree?

No. Mumbai spirit will let them ride to power again and again.

The Raksha part seems illusive. Instead of investing in the Armed forces, we might be better off investing in life insurance.

The problem is the politicians and babus control the procurement and so far it has been scandal ridden with INC looting the country even when not in power thru the PSU route.
Yes life insurance at individual level is useful. Atleast the family might get paid or even that can go belly up when it comes to pay-out. LIC was the till that INC used to loot till the found the PSU defence deals.

Sorry bad mood today.

SagarAg · Post by **SagarAg** » 21 Jun 2012 03:54

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 307754.cms

NEW DELHI: This 27-year-old man has strange goals in life. After slapping two high-profile politicians last year, Rohini boy Harvinder Singh is now planning to slap a third minister, in the name of increasing corruption and price rise. Times of India has learnt that Intelligence Bureau has issued a general alert that Harvinder Singh, who had slapped former telecom minister Sukhram and Union minister Sharad Pawar within a span of five days in November 2011, might slap Human Resource and Development (HRD) minister Kapil Sibal at a public function.

Sources say that he might be backed by some organisation to do the same. Following the alert, sources said, a team of IB officials also visited Harvinder Singh on Wednesday at his residence and spoke to him about his plan.

Talking to Times of India over phone on Wednesday, Harvinder Singh said, "Yes, I want to slap Kapil Sibal. I am waiting for an opportunity". He also confirmed that IB officials met him on Wednesday.

IB has reportedly informed Delhi Police about the alert and has asked the police to take precautions. However, sources said that IB alert is general in nature and only concerned units have been verbally informed that Kapil Sibal might be slapped by Arvinder Singh. Following the alert, the New Delhi Police and other units of police is keeping a close watch on movements of Harvinder Singh. Subsequently, Kapil Sibal's programs are being kept secret because Singh follows the news to know about the movements of the minister, said source.

A senior Delhi Police officer claimed that "He (Singh) is mentally unstable and keeps on making such claims but we won't take any chances".

In 2011, on November 23, Harvinder Singh first slapped and kicked ex-telecom minister Sukhram at a Delhi court just after latter was sentenced to five years imprisonment in connection with the corruption case dating back to 1996. The incident had invited lot of media attention. On November 23, 2011, Singh slapped Sharad Pawar at the NDMC centre, while the minister was leaving the premises.

Harvinder Singh had been detained by police and jailed overnight after the incident and investigators had found that he was not mentally unfit. Singh was even moved to Institute of Human Behaviour and Allied Sciences (IHBAS) in Shahdara. Investigators had also tried to find out whether any group was behind his acts because there were reports that he takes money for these things but nothing concrete has been established yet.

After the previous two attacks by Singh, he had claimed in an interview to Times of India earlier this year that he was kidnapped and beaten up by goons on several occasions.

This is too much.

News of the decade.

. Our IB is working diligently for the security of our country.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 21 Jun 2012 04:19

Kanishka · Post by **Kanishka** » 21 Jun 2012 05:14

Harvinder Singh should be the next President of India.

Mad, he may be, but one must give him credit for his courage.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 21 Jun 2012 22:47

shyamd wrote:http://www.idsa.in/book/ACaseforIntelli ... rmsinIndia

For those interested in National Security and Intelligence reforms - here is the link for the IDSA Special Task force report on intel reforms.

I know they are wel meaning but they should not have released this in its entirety. Will make detailed comments using Org & Mgmt theory only.
----
ShyamD re-read the IDSA report after reading this:

http://www.orgnet.com/orgchart.html

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 21 Jun 2012 23:51

Espionage in IAF - Junior warrant officer caught with classified info on IAF NE war plans.

http://www.timesnow.tv/Excl-Espionage-s ... 404696.cms

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Jun 2012 03:09

What does an org chart tell us?

* key personnel in an organization
- Their experience and background tells us the probability of success of the org in acheiveing its goals/missions

* The key branches of the org tell us the areas of interest/focus/concern facing the organization.
- It also indicates the forces/threats/factors that led the organization to adopt the structure it has
* Span of control shows the importance /criticality/extent of the branch to the org
* The key nodes/personnel leading the branches show potential areas of decision/communication bottlenecks/failures due to heirarchial nature of org strucures

An org chart is the key to an organization. Its the Rosetta stone to decode the organization and its capability to react to crisis and events.

More latter as I think it thru.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 22 Jun 2012 12:54

Thanks ramana, took a look. IMO it feels quite theoretical for example where thy talk about group decision making - it can also reduce speed in decision making and also some could argue to the point no decision is made - IMO it comes to the individuals in power or in position and their attitudes - which goes back to selection of the right type of person.

In the US they have some very interesting systems to encourage sharing and goal congruence- they have their intel version of wiki - so they as a community build up data and can talk to each other about certain targets.

Let's take a look at Indian intel - attitude is a problem given they are staffed by IPS, are we recruiting the right talent with the right attitudes?
Then next issue is sharing and rivalry between IB & RAW - You could apply things like MAC but it will be redundant if one side doesn't put their cards on the table. So leadership has to kick some butt and encourage sharing with IB. We need to encourage the community feel, which I don't think we have done. There is also turf protection - which is why NTRO is doing something slightly different to what it was meant to be doing and also duplication between MI & RAW/NTRO has been spoken about a lot.

In India they have opted for the intel czar type role which was MKN's recommendation. I don't think that solves the problem. NSA should be doing that job anyway. And the CCS/PM needs independent advisors that help turn data that intel puts out into strategies that can be pursued. Intel guys don't have the strategic brains and they are useful data gathering - the independent advisor will have to provide a recommendation based on experience/history/political science and other tools. Decision maker makes the final decision.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 23 Jun 2012 03:30

See the evolution of intel services in a cabinet system has to be understood. In UK the king's minister eventually became elected via Parliament. The officials used to report to King's councilors and later to elected ministers. The minsters are supposed to take the inputs from the officials and formulate policy. The need for secret information about foreign powers led to the creation of intel agencies.
If you are following the story so far the ministers formulate policy with very little inputs from the intel agencies say about 10%. And such inputs are needed about foreign powers. Historically its the military that needs such inputs to formulate plans. Its all dar ul Harab or House of War.
Only in India its the civilians who are supposed to be the warriors. So there is a fundamental weakness in the approach. Indian agencies trace their descent from IB which was a British internal security agency more like a police function and not a military function. The IB was bifurcate for wahtever reasons and still has the police outlook.

To add to the problems it appears the Indian agencies are receivers than seekers. What is called pull vs push. And that has its own disadvantages when faced with an aggressive push challengers.
The biggest challengers appear to be ISI and US. ISI is an aggressive push adversary to keep India unstable or off-balance. The US is also a push agency to ensure the instability is not rebalanced. It doesn't destabilize. Its job is to ensure there is no return to normal.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 24 Jun 2012 04:17

^^ One thing I want to know is - who is going to push through the changes? We have been through many reports on the intel agencies - Bangara report on training of RAW cadre initiated by Hormese Tharakan, of course Kargil Task Force, now this Naresh Chandra report. How many of the recommendations have been properly enacted?

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 24 Jun 2012 05:47

Hi Ramana,

Don't forget the Survey of India!

On the military side the British Indian Army also had an intelligence department based in Shimla from the mid 1880s that produced strategic assessments of developments in Central Asia using all available sources. They even had their own codebreakers - the father of M.M. Kaye (who wrote the Far Pavilions) was one of them.

Arguably, the Raj in India was well ahead of the central British government on the intelligence front because of the Great Game anxieties.

As far as the rest of the British government goes formal, institutional intelligence bureaucracies that outlast their founders (as opposed to ad hoc networks set up for particular campaigns or used by particular figures such as Wellington in Spain or Francis Bacon) didn't really emerge until the early 1900s when the German threat first started to loom.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 24 Jun 2012 21:51

DIA placed in charge of offensive Cyberwarfare per the new directive. NTRO along with CERT will be defensive. All this awaits approval from NSC.

Matter of urgency to get these guys ready.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 24 Jun 2012 21:58

Need to get the police out of intelligence business in India. All they do is after the fact jhhanch.
Shymad, Try to develop a flow chart from IDSA and you will see too many new groups created when the basic problem is the present groups don't cooperate.

sum · Post by **sum** » 24 Jun 2012 21:59

X-post:

sum wrote:Missing Bollywood starlet Laila Khan found in Dubai

Missing Bollywood starlet Laila Khan is alive and is in Dubai on a fake passport.

This was revealed by one of her friends who was arrested recently by Mumbai Police.

Mumbai Police said that a Dawood Ibrahim link has also emerged.

Laila and her family went missing an year ago.

Parvez Ahmed Tak, arrested on Thursday, and a suspect in the case, has reportedly told the police that Laila and five members of her family fled the country using fake passports.

Tak reportedly said Laila married a close aide of Dawood Ibrahim and could be in Dubai.

His revelation could put an end to speculation that the starlet was murdered along with her family.
Reflects very very poorly on the IB for giving a free run to her all this time and not able to detect her or stop her from escaping and also on the RAW for not being able to know such a wanted person being in Dubia despite supposedly having so many assets in ME.

Ramesh · Post by **Ramesh** » 25 Jun 2012 09:32

m.rediff.com/news/report/suspected-26-1 ... 120625.htm

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 25 Jun 2012 21:44

Johann wrote:Don't forget the Survey of India!

The story "Kim" by Rudyard Kipling, is pretty much about the same theme. The British fear of an attack on their North Western provinces. I found the book interesting only after knowing the historic context.

* Sorry for the OT.

Aaryan · Post by **Aaryan** » 26 Jun 2012 00:52

LeT terrorist Syed Zabiuddin alias Abu Jundal, who was arrested by Delhi Police, has admitted his active role in the 26/11 attack, saying he had worked in close tandem with terror mastermind Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 390723.cms

also

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/a ... epage=true

Some good news from intelligence sector..