West Asia News and Discussions

[Philip]

Johann the "Orange revolutions" in the former Warsaw Pat nations were later found to have had a high content of western assistance.The UK's Daily Telegraph during the Egyptian Spring,had a front page report about the CIA plotting for over a year to oust Mubarak! If you firmly believe that there is zero assistance to the Syrian rebels from wetsern intel agencies,etc.,naivety is thy name! In a few years time,like the revelations and bullsh*t about Saddam's WMDs and the conspiracy to invade Iraq planned even before Dubya was elected ,the truth about the so-called "Arab Spring" will be told.

It is not that the Arabs under their dictatorial despotic govts. are happy with their fate and do not want change,but not in the manner in which they are being manipulated by outside forces,or subjugated as in the case of Bahrein.

Here are a couple of similar vewpoints :

Arab spring: 'Western-backed exported Islamist revolution’

The string of uprisings in the Arab world boils down to Saudi Arabia and Qatar using money and influence to hijack public dissent and bring Sunni Islamists to power, says John R. Bradley, British author and expert on the Middle East.
­He argues that the turbulence that saw several governments overthrown in 2011 came from sectarian divide among Muslims, which the West played on, to support its own allies.
“What we’re seeing is a Sunni-Shiite divide reemerge in the Middle East with Washington clearly backing the Sunni powerhouse Saudi Arabia, a close American ally. And Saudi Arabia in turn along with Qatar has taken control of the revolutions elsewhere.
“For example it’s funding the Ennahda, the main Islamist party in Tunisia. The Muslim Brotherhood and more extremist Salafi groups in Egypt on the record were saying they received substantial funds from Saudi Arabia. The Yemeni government has openly criticized Qatar for interfering in its internal affairs and funding radical Islamists. And of course in Syria the main civilian opposition is dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood, and the so-called Free Syrian Army is dominated by not only radical jihadists from within Syria, but also by jihadists from throughout the region,” the expert told RT.
Bradley has little doubt that citizens of the countries hit by the Arab Spring had reason to criticize their authorities, but contrary to western audiences’ beliefs, the lack of political rights was far from being the most important factor.
“The motivation for these revolutions was economic. In Tunisia for example it started with the impoverished and neglected deep south. In Syria it started in Daraa, a city near Jordan, which has been experiencing drought for three years. And in Egypt an extensive opinion poll carried out among those who went to Tahrir just after Mubarak fell showed that only 19 per cent of them put free and fair election and free expression and so on, on top of their agenda. The main priority for 65 percent was the economy,” he said.
People more concerned with a power grab than improving lives were quick to seize the opportunity, Bradley explains.
“Now the people who provoked these revolutions foolishly declared their revolutions leaderless and they didn’t have an agenda. Anyone who knows anything about revolutionary uprisings in the past… knows that what happens in the post-revolutionary chaos is that the groups that are most disciplined and most ruthless politically then fill the vacuum. When you couple that with the funding that we were talking about from Saudi Arabia and Qatar, able to manipulate the electoral process, they were perfectly poised to step into the gap and fill the vacuum and that’s what they’ve done,” he says.

http://www.rt.com/news/arab-spring-isla ... ution-723/

Saudi Arabia and the Arab Spring: the West’s counter-revolutionary force
Posted on May 21, 2012 by socialistworkercanada
—Obama signed an arms deal giving the Saudi dictatorship $60 billion of weapons
By Ahmed El Bassiouny

Recent human rights violations in Saudi Arabia highlight its role in countering protesters. During the whole of the Arab Spring, the Western-backed Kingdom has played a counter-revolutionary role across the region.

First, Saudi Arabia provided shelter for Western-backed Tunisian dictator Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, after being over-thrown. Riyadh refused to give up Ben Ali for trial in Tunisia, proving the Kingdom’s strong opposition to the uprising in Tunisia and acting as a solid wall standing between the Tunisian protesters and their demands for justice. A very similar incident happened in Yemen: after the injury of Ali Abdullah Saleh during the bombing of his presidential palace, everyone could safely bid that Saudi Arabia would kick in to save him. Saleh fled to Saudi Arabia for medical treatment, and then to the US.

It’s unforgettable that Saudi Arabia (armed with US and Canadian weapons) sent troops to Bahrain to “deal” with the Shia-dominated demonstrations. The main goal was to amputate any uprising action in the gulf area, and protect the US Fifth Fleet.

When it came to Egypt—another Western-backed dictatorship—Saudi Arabia rushed into trying to strengthen their ties with the Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF), by offering financial support. At the exact same time, Saudi Arabia offered financial, political and media support to the major parties in Egypt—the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafis. That was in an attempt to win an ally, one that would allow shaping of the region’s politics to their liking. Saudi Arabia has also been arming sections of the Free Syrian Army tied to the Western-backed Syrian National Council, in order to undermine the revolutionary movement in Syria and pave the way for confronting Iran.

Surprisingly, Saudi Arabia’s counter-revolution measures did not stop at backing corrupted regimes; it extended to manipulation of the media. The resignation of Wadah Khanfar, the director general of Al-Jazeera, happened after a week of extensive visits between Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Al-Jazeera provided outstanding coverage of the political changes in Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen. Khanfar was replaced by a member of the Qatari Royal family, as punishment to the satellite network’s independent coverage.

http://socialistworkercanada.com/2012/0 ... ary-force/

[Philip]

Could We Have the Wars Without the Manipulation?
Rachel Marsden

Testifying before a Senate committee a few months ago, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton lamented that America was "in an information war, and we are losing that war." This week, she blew a fuse at the "Friends of Syria" meeting in Paris, saying that Russia and China should "pay a price" for not supporting regime change in Syria.

Here's a thought: How about using the power of truth to get things done rather than cover and manipulation?

Russia and China aren't following America's script for one reason: They have major economic interests in Syria and rightfully see any attempt at regime change as America trying to steal their lunch. This isn't like the Libya situation, where Muammar Gadhafi, who essentially became America's ally of convenience in fighting terrorism in the wake of the Iraq invasion, signed his own death warrant when his iron fist started quivering as the Arab Spring roared all around him and ousted his pal in Tunisia, Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, and the leaders of Egypt and Yemen. The subsequent uprising in Libya fit within that climate of mass outcry. If Western forces were involved in sparking the unrest at the outset, then at least the West had plausible deniability in appearing to be intervening under humanitarian pretext.

As Gadhafi began to feel control slipping away, he did what all control freaks do: He flipped out and started cracking down. This provided the window for NATO countries to invoke the U.N.'s "responsibility to protect." The end result was regime change The cause was Gadhafi's crackdown -- at least by all appearances.

What's clearly frustrating Clinton is the fact that the urgency of the Arab Spring is long over, and so are all the favorable optics. All we're left with now is overwhelming evidence of Western-funded, Western-trained mercenaries causing trouble for Bashar al-Assad, thereby making it difficult for the world to tell if military crackdowns are just self-defense against what might be perceived as terrorists. Meanwhile, the State Department has been funding various groups to drum up the humanitarian cause for regime change.

But why even bother with all this cover and pretext? Hasn't Clinton seen the unemployment statistics? She should stop acting as if economics isn't a valid reason for military action. There's never been a better time to come right out and say that America and the West are in an economic war against China and its sphere of influence, and that Americans are losing jobs and the country is losing its manufacturing base to the Chinese, who only make a few cents an hour and live together in dormitories until the day they jump from a window because their lives are so miserable.

Just be honest about the fact that oil and gas are huge cash cows and growth industries of the future, and will provide economic expansion opportunities abroad, around which other industries will prosper. Explain that China, America and each of their respective allies are dividing up the global pie, whether people like it or not -- and that it's time to decide who you'd rather have as a boss.

As military strategist Carl Von Clausewitz once said, war is just an extension of politics by other means. No one can doubt that the West is in a perpetual war with the Chinese sphere for global economic influence and supremacy.

Of course, there is one problem: China is largest foreign owner of publicly held U.S. debt, holding about 8 percent of it, or $1.2 trillion. But either way, a Syrian invasion -- via mercenary proxies or otherwise -- is going to anger China because it won't like the end result. Obama and Clinton just have to decide whether they're going to rip off the Band-Aid slowly or quickly. But one thing's for sure: If they continue to lose sphere and influence to China, that situation will only continue to deteriorate, with China owning increasingly more debt.

But why not explain all this to people?

This process of trying to convince voters, through pretexting and mental manipulation, to get on board for each military action is getting tedious. It's tiresome to watch people fronting for the State Department, petting goats and kissing babies in foreign countries while pretending that any resulting economic opportunities would just be icing on the cake. We're not stupid. Back away from the goat, put down the baby and simply tell the truth. You might be pleasantly surprised at the reaction.

Then, when the battleground moves to Iran, Sudan, Nigeria or elsewhere for the exact same reasons -- as it inevitably will -- your lives will be much easier because you'll at the very least have truth and reason on your side.

http://townhall.com/columnists/rachelma ... ion/page/2

[shyamd]

Philip ji, don't over estimate the role of the west in these revolutions. They trumpet their role to show their "success" - Om baba will say yes we created this and CIA chief might get a promotion or 2, so its in their interests to trumpet. In reality, they are only small players and not the decisive major factor. If you look at history and the theory of the revolution, there are always people who play their role.

The western role will only help push things in the right direction but are not the major factor. Its always the people that are the deciding factor. What you realise is, some things are too big to control.

[Theo_Fidel]

Both the Libyans I know want to have a 'normal' home country. Something they can visit, whine about, feel proud of, and tell people that they are from Libya without experiencing that 'twinge'. It may not seem like much but these were things they were willing to give their lives for. And both lost cousins and uncles in the war and one has come back with shrapnel injury. If it took a western conspiracy to get rid of Gaddafi they were all for it.

As Johann says something has changed. The people have lost their fear of the state. I also tend to think the electronic revolution has something to do with it. All the videos are taken and uploaded and available instantly. No massacre goes uncovered. During the first revolt too the Syrians fought with courage. You don't massacre 40,000 people without facing some serious courage. The difference is today the rest of Syria and the world can see what is happening, this has destroyed the credibility of the regime outside Damascus. Most of the countryside is now a 'no-go' area. I think it will be another 1-2 years before the Assad regime finally goes. When it crumbles, the end will come swiftly, similar to Syria. Assad will be there one day and gone the next.

I was talking to an Iranian the other day and they are torn between what it would take to uproot the beards and the costs their country will have to bear. This is what is holding the Iranians back, they are not willing to pay the price.

So far the chastened Brotherhood groups are being forced to remain democratic. It is obvious to them that they only have 40% of the Egyptian population. Any stupid moves will see this base swiftly erode. And any outside support would wither as well. Even in Tunisia support is only 30% and dwindling swiftly from what I hear. In Libya Gaddafi and the Beards are considered two sides of the same coin, both tyrants to the core. There is no appetite to exchange one for the other. I know one Lebanese/Syrian and I havn't had a chance to talk to him for a while. But the key think he impressed on me is that the Syrians are Arabic in culture but are not an Arab people. They are not quite as smitten with political Islam. They are Syrian first then Muslim. I always thought that boded well.

[shyamd]

^^ both Johann and Theo have hit the point I have tried to make for some time. For a revolution to succeed the people have to be ready to give up their lives and make great sacrifices. If this doesn't occur, the revolution will fail.

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More fighting in Damascus. Closer to the ministries and closer to the presidential palace.

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US navy ship fired on a small ship off the coast of the UAE after it ignored warnings and approached the ship at high speed. 1 killed

[ramana]

Theo, Same fear of unknown and who will take advantage of the mess if TSP has regime change is what keeps the people supporting the kabila guards.
Ralph Peters type maps are also not helpful.

[svinayak]

It is a catch 22 situation. This bubble has been set to explode. But India does not want to be a victim of this burst.

[ramana]

Bursting the bubble though spectacular leads to fallout from the debris.
The other way is to deflate the bubble by allowing the air to escape.

I think India by its many measures:wkkitis, Garam Hawa, trade, kirkit is doing the latter. However it needs to keep the option of bursting the bubble alive.

[shyamd]

1 Indian shot dead by USN. 4 Indian nationals and 2 emiratis were on board the boat.

-------------------------

Reports of chemical weapons already been used in Homs

Asad regime begun arresting other senior officers suspected of defecting

[brihaspati]

Adapting from a different post of mine : the change of a regime may seem like a "revolution" after it has been successful. It may seem to be popular and people losing their fear of death etc. But what people usually miss is that this popular mood comes after and not before. Before, it is a matter of careful secret, and militant organization together with covert support from disgruntled sectiosn of ruling regimes and external forces.

There were many other factors in armies in the Muslim world not taking the side of this or that faction of insurrectionists or uprising organizers - and defection was a very minor issue - in many of the failed demos in the past. The point missed is - the role of state armies, in the days of nation-states, are crucial for even uprisings to be staged - even in the most peaceful of "ways". If the army chooses to intervene with overwhelming force right at the beginning, when there is a transitional stage of testing the waters by the internal as well as external leaders of demos/gatherings/attacks - an unarmed, and non-militant population without military support from outside, never goes for a revolution. The show of numbers road onlee happens when this initial phase is safely crossed.

Population does not want to be killed, and does not come out into open killing fields unless they are practically reassured of internal or external military support - however strong their grievances might be.

"Revolutions" are a matter of extremely small, well organized groups, who also manage the covert support of sections from the ruling regime as well as from outside.

Had we gone through the confessions and assessments of real life participants/organizers/ as well as observers of "revolutions", we would have noticed that they are essentially a matter of organizing military backup - internally or promises/commitments from outside. People in large numbers only join much later - and that too not necessarily out of any focused grievances against the regime. All the individual grievances that exists even in peace time, find an outlet in common defiance or violence - once there is hope for success in that violence or show of strength.


The Russian revolution happened based on a very small support base, a naval uprising of the Kronstadt fleet, and a section of the field army organized by the Bolsheviks. The working class was small [plenty of evidence for that] and socialists and peasant bodies were against.

It is the organization of military violence and confusion in the state army over its purpose and stance, together with external sponsors [ no one can deny that for Russia or China or Cuba, or even the English uprising of Roundheads - who had links to continental religious and financial politics based in Netherlands] - that creates the initial space for people to come out.

These initial forays are by people already organized. If they are relatively unmolested thats when the greater numbers join in. I have gone through the records of almost all such movements typically dubbed successful or failed revolutions - and not a single one is an exception.

[Johann]

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More fighting in Damascus. Closer to the ministries and closer to the presidential palace.

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In the last three days Syrian government forces have been using mortars and armoured vehicles in combat 2 to 3.5 miles from the presidential palace.

The last time that happened was in 1924 when the French strafed and shelled the same neighborhood - Al-Midan- during the Great Syrian Revolt.

The end is not imminent, but the regime is struggling, and losing.

[Theo_Fidel]

The problem Assad faces is not dissimilar to the one the British faced in Afghanistan. With a large armed group the British could go anywhere and conquer anything but in the end the entire unit was slaughtered down to the last man. The end is not in doubt the details may vary.

[Johann]

Hi B,

The Arab Spring inverted a lot of the patterns of the past.

Syria, like Egypt and Tunisia and all the rest started as civil protest on the streets.

The Syrian regime, like the Libyan chose to order *regular* conscript soldiers to shoot protesters down in the streets. Even the Iranian regime in 2009 avoided that mistake. The Bahrainis used foreign mercenaries, especially Pakistanis with no local sympathies.

In an era where even conscripts can record, send and watch MMS clips on their phones, the regime lies that these were 'armed terrorists' collapsed quickly and destroyed rank and file morale. After that point defections were inevitable.

As for why civilians were willing to come out in the first place, technology has played a huge part in weakening silence and fear imposed by the secret police.

I was in Syria in the summer of 2010, and I saw people on facebook in *every* cyber cafe, despite the fact it was officially banned. Even a young middle-ish class guy in rural Idlib who I met on the bus and invited me to a meal with his family had a dial-up connection. This was a village with nothing but olive groves around it.

And despite very real Mukhabarat surveillance, two people I barely knew criticised the regime - one in public, although in a very quiet tone of voice. That would have been unthinkable 15 years ago.

These are/were the changing conditions on the ground throughout the Arab world. Quite simply the old model of the police state in which surveillance and control over communications was always key collapsed because the regimes modernised communications for the sake of business, but didn't move quickly enough to embrace the new Chinese technologies of control.

When you combine that with the fact that economic growth wasn't trickling down fast enough while subsidies were being cut and food prices were rising, the result was inevitable.

Its no weirder than any of the thousands of very local protests seen over the towns and cities of India every year over economic and social issues. Its just that in democracies they dont send the army to gun you down. Arabs, particularly young Arabs know that Indians and Brazilians and the French and all sorts of others have those rights, and they don't see why they shouldn't deserve them as well.

[Pranav]

"Revolutions" are a matter of extremely small, well organized groups, who also manage the covert support of sections from the ruling regime as well as from outside. ...

I have gone through the records of almost all such movements typically dubbed successful or failed revolutions - and not a single one is an exception.

Always the same story, for the past five centuries.

In an era where even conscripts can record, send and watch MMS clips on their phones, the regime lies that these were 'armed terrorists' collapsed quickly and destroyed rank and file morale. After that point defections were inevitable.

Lots of staged videos and other psy-ops by the rebels, who are no doubt being tutored by their foreign mentors. The goal of all psy-ops is to create an atmosphere of inevitability which in turn will induce defections. So far their success has been limited. Ultimately it is all about the balance of firepower.

[brihaspati]

Johann,
seemingly it was the social media that helped in ME "spring". But if you go deeper, each of these countries were having some common problems with the role of the state as a monopoly over violence.

This might go into inordinate details if we go country by country. But even with Egypt, it was Mubarak who changed over from blanket coercion of Islamist/MB types under his predecessor, to selective elimination of those of MB leadership seemingly particularly antagonistic and in fact patronage of the mullahcracy.

The army played a peculiar hesitant role. It had reminded me of the "paralysis" shown by the Iranian army when the Americans were foisting Khomeini to replace an apparently less reliable Shah. In both cases, the "western" intel and military intel was heavily interconnected with the domestic military.

One of my projections was that once the western establishment felt sure of Russian and Chinese derailment from a quicker revival of the cold-war threat, they would jettison the ME dictators they had maintained before [for various reasons - including high costs of maintenance]. Each of the countries in "flames" had strong European links in their colonial or semi-colonial past, followed up by either a Left-pretending Brit handle, or right-pretending US handle during the cold-war - sufficient time and opportunity for army-army and intel-intel linkages.

The army had to be held back and made indecisive. So that the crucial initial phase of small-group/urban/activism to open crowd based show of defiance could safely transition. Neither the Iranian nor the 2011 demos could have proceeded without such a restraint. Following on from the Iranian case, and what we know to be the linkages in the ME states - a planned restraint order from external handlers cannot be ruled out. You can see that the restraint has not been ordered for KSA and Bahrain - the ruling systems here have closer bonds based on mutual blackmail material perhaps connected to the long association with Brits.

[Johann]

Lots of staged videos and other psy-ops by the rebels, who are no doubt being tutored by their foreign mentors. The goal of all psy-ops is to create an atmosphere of inevitability which in turn will induce defections. So far their success has been limited. Ultimately it is all about the balance of firepower.

Pranav,

Its not the videos that make Syrian soldiers want to defect.

Its the orders they receive to attack civilians, which many have been forced to carry out.

What the videos do for soldiers is reassure them that theyre not the only ones facing the same moral dilemma.

How do you reconcile shelling and shooting your fellow citizens when you're a conscript, one of them? Think about what that would do to your conscience.

Defecting Syrian soldiers have all said they're far more afraid of the intelligence and security units behind them that will shoot them at any sign of hesitancy, than they are of the FSA rebels. And they can expect reprisals against their families.

To defect means first getting your family out from their homes, and then legging it at the next opportunity

These are Soviet tactics and they are *demoralising*. That is why the Germans captured 5.7 million Soviet PoWs. Most were quite willing to fight for the Germans, except that Hitler was even more murderous towards them than Stalin was.

[Johann]

The army had to be held back and made indecisive.

Its pretty straightforward. *All Arab militaries* with ruling family members in the general officer corps did not hesitate to open fire on the crowds during the Arab Spring.

Those general staffs without ruling family members could, and did, institutionally separate themselves from the ruling family. Secondly they have to worry about conscripts turning the guns on them if they order them to open fire on civilians. The generals in those kinds of situations always hope to come an accomodation with the new order, or to even run it.

You can see that the restraint has not been ordered for KSA and Bahrain

Again, its pretty straightforward.

Firstly, the Gulf military's senior officer ranks (like Libya and Syria) are dominated by ruling family members. There is no hesitation to issue orders to fire.

Secondly, unlike Syria, Gulf militaries are packed with foreign rank and file who have no problems shooting the locals.

In cases like Bahrain even when there are local enlisted, the sectarian composition and politics means that the few Sunni Bahrainis or Saudis dont see Shia Bahrainis protesting as anything other than Iranian agents, and have no compunctions about opening fire.

[svenkat]

Its simple,Syria and Libya are expendable,they are not a** lickers of West.

KSA and Bahrain are a** lickers of West.
QED and all logic/rationale/reasoning follows from the power of gun and Western might.

And power of gun does not follow from gun alone.

[shyamd]

You can see that the restraint has not been ordered for KSA and Bahrain

Again, its pretty straightforward.

Firstly, the Gulf military's senior officer ranks (like Libya and Syria) are dominated by ruling family members. There is no hesitation to issue orders to fire.

Secondly, unlike Syria, Gulf militaries are packed with foreign rank and file who have no problems shooting the locals.

In cases like Bahrain even when there are local enlisted, the sectarian composition and politics means that the few Sunni Bahrainis or Saudis dont see Shia Bahrainis protesting as anything other than Iranian agents, and have no compunctions about opening fire.

Also, tribes they recruit from are usually the most loyal - this is the case in KSA, Bahrain, Oman. And in Bahrain/KSA - the soldiers are all sunni, who share no love for their shia brethern. And also the numbers killed are a lot less. But even then they killed around 90+ in Bahrain. Not massive by any scale. Also, they know that they aren't going to resolve the issue, by using violence even in funeral processions, more people come out.

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Yawn... Source said this in September 2011
US refuses to help Syrian rebels until after election

Barack Obama’s US government has warned its western allies and Syria’s opposition groups that it can do nothing to intervene in the country’s crisis until after November’s presidential election, The Daily Telegraph has learned.

Barack Obama’s US government has warned its western allies and Syria’s opposition groups that it can do nothing to intervene in the country’s crisis until after November’s presidential election Photo: AP
By Peter Foster in Washington
9:58PM BST 16 Jul 2012332 Comments
Despite mounting fury from the Syrian rebels, who are seeking assistance for their efforts to overthrow the Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, the White House has refused all requests for heavy weapons and intelligence support.
Syrian lobby groups in Washington, who only a few weeks ago were expressing hope that the Obama administration might give a green light to the supply of anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, said they had now been forced to “take a reality pill” by the US government.
The Telegraph understands that the Syrian Support Group (SSG), the political wing of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), recently presented American officials with a document requesting 1,000 RPG-29 anti-tank missiles, 500 SAM-7 rockets, 750 23mm machine guns as well as body armour and secure satellite phones. They also asked for $6m to pay rebel fighters as they battle the regime. All their requests were rejected.
“Basically the message is very clear; nothing is going to happen until after the election, in fact nothing will happen until after inauguration [Jan 2013]. And that is the same message coming from everyone, including the Turks and the Qataris,” said a Washington lobbyist for the group.
The Obama administration has also made clear to its allies that it will not intervene, a message that was carried to London last week by Tom Donilon, the White House National Security Adviser, who made a low-profile stop en route to Israel.

Sources in Washington who were familiar with the matter said Mr Donilon had made it “abundantly clear” that there was no room for increased US involvement in Syria.
Syrian lobby groups in Washington have thus far been reluctant to speak publicly about their frustrations with the Obama government for fear of alienating White House officials, but also giving succor to the Assad regime.
However, a third lobby group contacted by The Telegraph, but who asked to remain anonymous, said that they too had come up against a White House 'red line’, despite some earlier receptiveness from the State Department.
“No-one wants to touch this,” the group’s representative said, “Not the White House, not the Congressional committee on foreign affairs. It is clear we will have to play a longer game.”
Fears that the disparate rebel groups are being infiltrated by Al Qa’eda have also reduced appetite in the US for better arming the rebels, either directly or with the help of third-party countries such as Libya, Qatar or Saudi Arabia.
The American position means there is little hope of any swift resolution to the Syrian crisis, with the stage set instead for a protracted civil war. Russia repeated yesterday that it was “unrealistic” of the West to expect the country to convince Mr Assad to step down.
Abdulbaset Sieda, chairman of the official Syrian National Council, the other principal opposition group, called on the US not to abandon the rebels for the sake of domestic political calculations, following the latest massacre in the village of Tremseh last week.
“We want for America and the Western countries to carry out their responsibilities,” he said “With regard to America, specifically, we would like to say to President Obama that waiting for election day to make the right decision on Syria is unacceptable for the Syrians.
“We cannot understand that a superpower ignores the killing of tens of thousands of Syrian civilians because of an election campaign that a president may win or lose. That’s why we are saying there is work that must take place at the Security Council.”
In a bid to build credibility with the US and western allies, the Syrian Support Group which was set up to represent the Free Syrian Army (FSA) is now planning to release a “Declaration” signed by nine key rebel commanders.
The document, which is currently circulating in Syria and has been seen by The Telegraph, pledges the FSA to work under a civilian government, commits to the ideals of democracy and promises to protect minorities.
However analysts said that combination of a war-weary public, a general election campaign and the spectre of weapons falling into the hands of radical Islamists continued to mitigate against increased US intervention.
Jonathan Schanzer, vice president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think-tank in Washington, which has lobbied for intervention, said division among Republicans had also helped to give the Obama administration a 'free pass’ politically.
“The Right is split between those who say the US has a moral imperative to intervene and those who say Syria is an enemy of the US and there is no national interest in intervening. The result is that no-one want’s to touch this.
“The reality is that the US appears to have no coherent foreign policy since the Arab Spring. It is not clear why we helped topple Gaddafi and we let Mubarak fall but we let Assad stay in power.
“The gruesome, cynical truth is that while Kofi Annan 'spins his wheels’ at the UN, there is a tacit understanding with Assad. He knows where his 'red lines’ are; if he keeps the massacres beneath a certain level, he knows the US will not do anything to intervene.”

[Johann]

Its simple,Syria and Libya are expendable,they are not a** lickers of West.

KSA and Bahrain are a** lickers of West.
QED and all logic/rationale/reasoning follows from the power of gun and Western might.

And power of gun does not follow from gun alone.

Mubarak? Ben Ali in Tunisia? Saleh in Yemen? Do you really think these people were an iota less allied with the West than the Bahraini royal family? You honestly think the Bahraini al-Khalifa family is somehow less 'expendable' to Washington than the others were?

This is the problem with explanations that fetishise the West and turns it into a supernatural force like god, the devil or magic. One really doesn't have to think any more when you can rely on Deus ex Machina. I don't know why they're behaving like that - the devil made them do it!

The triangular relationship between the ruling family and the armed forces, and the armed forces and the general society, and the society and the regime has decided not only the outcome, but the unfolding of every single case of the Arab Spring.

Its been far more clear and consistent than other explanations such as the west, or oil or whatever else that confused outsiders have attempted to offer.

External players at most act as an accelarant for processes already well under way.

[shyamd]

IDF mil intel chief says Syrian forces moving troops from Golan to Damascus.

[Pranav]

Mubarak? Ben Ali in Tunisia? Saleh in Yemen? Do you really think these people were an iota less allied with the West than the Bahraini royal family? ...

This is the problem with explanations that fetishise the West and turns it into a supernatural force like god, the devil or magic. One really doesn't have to think any more when you can rely on Deus ex Machina. I don't know why they're behaving like that - the devil made them do it!

Tch, tch ... Mubarak had definitely outlived his utility.

From the Foreign Policy Research Institute, July 2009.

The U.S. and Egypt Since the Suez Crisis by Trudy J. Kuehner - http://www.fpri.org/footnotes/1423.2009 ... esuez.html

Some quotes from there -

"There is a sense that the relationship has run its course...

"Its foundations are either weak or obsolete.

"The Egyptian-Israeli peace is cold...

"The U.S. in the 1970s did not have bases throughout the Persian Gulf. Thirty years later, U.S. military bases dot the Gulf.

"Now, there are no Soviets to contain. This relationship has been running on bureaucratic inertia.

"So what should policymakers do? The debate falls along three axes.

"First, some argue that we should go back to authoritarian stability...

"The second axis around which the debate revolves is that we need to undertake a program of democratization and reform in Egypt...

"We need to provide some sort of soft landing...

"Finally, the third stream of thought, an emerging one, is that ... we need to step back from this relationship...
"There is no compelling reason to have a strategic relationship with Egypt, or for Egypt to be the second largest recipient of our foreign aid."

Originally posted http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 4#p1022514

[Theo_Fidel]

The Damascus revolt seems calculated to force Assad to draw his forces back into the city and abandon the rest of the country. The longer it continues the further the rest of the country will drift into rebel control.
--------------------------

WRT Bahrain it simply did not have the sheer strength in numbers all these revolts have required. Often it has taken 60%-80% of the population to join the revolt to overthrow the 10% who are in charge. In Iran for instance there are far too many fence sitters for the revolts to succeed. Bahrain had proportions but the numbers failed them. Also they are surrounded by stable countries so there was no direct connection to the rest of the revolt.

From the USA internally the loss of the relationship with the Egypt military has been particularly stinging. To the very end USA tried to save Mubarak, even in a figure head kind of way. The loss of Mubarak was a major loss for USA influence. The USA would like above all else for the Iranian revolution to succeed yet it was crushed. The USA control over these events is over stressed.

These revolts have followed a specific linear pattern. It has been country by country one after the other, never all together. The middle eastern folks appear to lack the strength or energy for more that that, one at a time please. Tunisia then Egypt then Libya and now Syria. Bahrain should have waited its turn. They tried to jump the queue and paid the price.

[member_23626]

Hmm... What's up in Israel?

Immolation Shockwave: Social unrest grows in Israel

[youtube]2t6XGX5MW6M&feature=context-gch[/youtube]

[member_23626]

CrossTalk: Egypt's Political Theater (pre-recorded)

How much does Morsi's victory actually change the status quo? Will there be any concessions from the SCAF? Will the military be able to set limits? Who will be in charge of Egypt's foreign policy? CrossTalking with Omri Ceren and Stephen Schlesinger.

[youtube]VbOt8F7bxno&feature=endscreen[/youtube]

[brihaspati]

Theo ji,
this perhaps will go OT: but long ago I had posted about the Iranian transition. It was clearly managed by the US intel and MI. The army - through its handlers from the US side, was held back - while the future torturer [yes he did so personally, and the first executions happened in the roof of the house he occupied after return] Khomeini was shipped under full protection from France.

Provocateurs placed within urban leftist groups were unleashed - as was typical of all British and Brit-inherited regime structures, to provide the correct excuses. It was a stage-managed transition. The leftists unleashed, and then the west has all the excuses to blow these groups out of proportion and claim that "strategic interests" of peace/democracy/freedom etc. even horrors like paki/saudi/saddam/khomeini/talebs etc etc all are "tactical necessities".

Please note that - Reagan secretly dealt with Khomeini for mutually beneficial political and strategic interests [contra-release]. The US establishment is accused by a section of the ex-hostages of possible collusion, partly to oust Carter [for a whole host of reasons connected to some of the Carter admin global moves] and then promptly dealing underhand once Carter was removed.

This is not mere CT, since the details of the removal of Shah, the restraining of the army, and later arrest and execution of a section of the higher command of the Iranian army by Khomeini - appropriate time delays, role of US key personnel in Iran, all are not that much known outside watcher circles.

The US cannot appear to be seen as abandoning long-standing authoritarian allies, as it closes the door for recruitment of future such authoritarians. When they need to change regimes, therefore they need proper excuses.

Johann and Theo,

the crucial connections that matter in west versus ME relationship - are based on two factors:

(1) British empire developed local and especially financial connections, especially those reliable connections connected to drug and contraband trafficking, including human trafficking and transnational criminal networks which are used as a back-channel to achieve financial and political goals without being accountable to domestic or international public opinion.

(2) Oil and leadership-claims over Ummah.

The gulf-zone, especially the western side of the zone, and North-west IOR developed the closest, deepest and indepth collaborations between the transnational criminal network that the British empire was. The particular history of British paranoia of Ottomans and Germans and Russians [whom are the Brits not paranoid about!] have developed a bond in the Anglo-Saxon movers and shakers with the Saudi and Bahraini establisment - that does not exist with any other such nuggets in the ME.

[Philip]

As the above post said,the link to criminal syndicates et al by Brit. entities ,esp. bankers,is being exposed for the world to see.We've just had the LIBOR rate fixing scandal involving Barclays Bank,now the the HSBC fiasco...moving money to and from Iran,Syria,...! HSBC has been caught.It remains to see how many US banks have been secretly doing likewise.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012 ... gns-senate

HSBC 'sorry' for aiding Mexican drugs lords, rogue states and terrorists

Executive quits in front of US Senate as bank faces massive fines for 'horrific' lapses that resulted in laundering money for drugs cartels and pariah states

Xcpt:

Executives with Europe's biggest bank, HSBC, were subjected to a humiliating onslaught from US senators on Tuesday over revelations that staff at its global subsidiaries laundered billions of dollars for drug cartels, terrorists and pariah states.

Lawmakers hammered the British-based bank over the scandal, demanding to know how and why its affiliates had exposed it to the proceeds of drug trafficking and terrorist financing in a "pervasively polluted" culture that persisted for years.

A report compiled for the committee detailed how HSBC's subsidiaries transported billions of dollars of cash in armoured vehicles, cleared suspicious travellers' cheques worth billions, and allowed Mexican drug lords buy to planes with money laundered through Cayman Islands accounts.

Other subsidiaries moved money from Iran, Syria and other countries on US sanctions lists, and helped a Saudi bank linked to al-Qaida to shift money to the US.

[svenkat]

Johann,
I have immense respect for the smartness of west like most indians of 'my' ilk.

But its the too-clever explanations that 'we' have problems with.

KSA and Bahrain serve western purposes as Pranav has pointed out.

Wheres the western sympathy for shias in KSA/Bahrain? Wheres the sympathy for baluchis/baltistanis/or even the pashtuns manipulated by pakis? Where was the sympathy for bengalis? or the hindus in Bangladesh/Pakistan/Cashmere which the smart christists in Anglo-America profess for minorities in India.

The entire ME political GEOGRAPHY is a relic of WESTERN Colonialism. The West is doing what Imperialists have always done.Which is to protect their influence.To look for logic beyond self-interests in their actions is ridiculous.

The ME is not experiencing change in a vacuum.There is massive western involvement in support,propoganda,gentle/not so gentle direction/steering.The West is not stupid to jump in if theres is no public support for change.But why do they support quo by repression elsewhere?Its where they remain quiet that explains why some revolutions are 'allowed' .(no disrespect meant for arab political processes). Nothing more from me.

[Suppiah]

Look like the regime is on last legs - fighting raging in Damascus itself. The west will have its way. We may call it psy-ops, imperialism, false intelligence, stupid move, whatever, doesn't matter. Yet another dictator that challenged them and made life tough for is allies will bite the dust and be hung like a carcass from a pole soon.

Russia has managed to completely destroy its influence in the ME. Ironically it seems to be neither a friend of the obnoxious regimes courted by west nor one of the Abdul on the street who wants change. So it loses either way. That is because Puke-tin-pot defines his foreign policy in one phrase - "whatever the other side doesn't want".

The juggernaut marches on. Next is Iran. Any state that is a threat to Israel will go same way. And from India's POV it should. A secure Israel, until end of oil era and or end of ME dominance on oil supplies is a sure way of ensuring Pakbarics don't turn to Ummah for protecting against India and get it....Ummah is too busy onlee..

[shyamd]

Expect another major defection soon, rumours doing the rounds - as big as Tlass

------------------
We are still a while away from the finale in Damascus. More later.
---------------
Syrian minister of Defence killed in explosion. Suicide bomber is reportedly his body guard.

Majd Arar@MajdArar
Republican guards now around Shame Hospital #Syria #Damascus
18 Jul 12 ReplyRetweetFavorite
Majd Arar@MajdArar
Surely many officials now in Shame Hospital, even now and then shaded cars arrive #Syria #Damascus
18 Jul 12 ReplyRetweetFavorite
Majd Arar@MajdArar
Young boys, seems to be relatives to those targeted today in #Rawdah are entering Shame Hospital, their grieve is evident #Syria #Damascus
18 Jul 12 ReplyRetweetFavorite
Majd Arar@MajdArar
Doctors are brought now in shaded 4WD cars, guarded with military police. #Syria #Damascus
18 Jul 12 ReplyRetweetFavorite
Majd Arar@MajdArar
Something big happened in #Rawdah, I can see lots of security & civilian cars in Shame Hospital, roads are closed now. #Syria #Damascus

So high level casualties taken

[shyamd]

Assef Shawkat - Dead per Al Manar TV. HUGE!

[Suppiah]

Wow...it is sure reaching boiling point....nutjob must be quaking in his shoes..

[Aditya_V]

So the international community has sucide bombers now hired to do thier regime change activities.

[shyamd]

Explosion at Division 4 base in Damascus. Syrias only mechanised division commanded by Maher Al Asad.

2nd explosion just reported. Plumes of smoke. Maher Al Assad spec forces inside.

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov says "decisive battle" underway in Syria:
The battle for the capital, the decisive fight (is under way in Syria).
Adopting a resolution against this backdrop would amount to a direct support for the revolutionary movement. If we are talking about a revolution then the U.N. Security Council has no place in this.
13.47 More from William Hague, who says Syria bombing shows need for UN resolution:
This incident, which we condemn, confirms the urgent need for a Chapter VII resolution of the UN Security Council on Syria.

[Theo_Fidel]

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov says "decisive battle" underway in Syria:
The battle for the capital, the decisive fight (is under way in Syria).

Shyam,

I kinda doubt this. I think there is still a long ways to go. Assad is shaken but not stirred. The real turning point came some time back when Assad lost Northern Syria. It was his failure to crush the rebellion there that ultimately proved he was beatable. Now he is going to have pull his troops back to the capital itself, exposing his weakness even further. The real prize would be Aleppo. When Aleppo is out of Assad control it will all be over. Look for a military coup when that happens.

[shyamd]

^^ Not my quote. Thats Russian FM's quote.

I agree with you, as I said above that there is still a long way to go. Also he could get shot dead by someone close to him like a body guard or someone else

-------
Reports of mass defections in Damascus by ground troops

[shyamd]

Head of Crisis Group, military affairs - Hassan turkmani (former Def min I think) dead from blast. Bomb planted in meeting room. Head of intel severely injured

Probably single biggest assassination. Wiped out a chunk of top leadership in one go.

[Lisa]

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov says "decisive battle" underway in Syria:
The battle for the capital, the decisive fight (is under way in Syria).
Adopting a resolution against this backdrop would amount to a direct support for the revolutionary movement. If we are talking about a revolution then the U.N. Security Council has no place in this.

All Ivan's men and all Ivan's ships cannot put Syria back together again.

Assad's for the high jump if a lamp post does not get him first!

[RajeshA]

Let's see what happens to Iran's Pan-Islamist strategy. It was always Iran's Pan-Islamist leadership dreams that were staying the hands of the Shias. With those considerations gone, Shi'ite strategy will also change!

[habal]

Reports of mass defections in Damascus by ground troops

those reports my dear friend are BS. There cannot be any defections in places where there is deep animosity between the groups. take it as pure propaganda by west. Only thing they have managed is to assasinate a senior official.