West Asia News and Discussions

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 18 Jul 2012 19:43

^^ Possibly, they did the same in Libya on the Tripoli invasion. - TV airing FSA troops showing empty jeeps, tanks and armoured cars left by Asad troops.

Meanwhile Shabiha thugs unleashed in Sunni neighbourhoods of damascus going on a rampage...

Some saying Tank commander in Damascus just gave his tanks to FSA and defected with 500 troops

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 18 Jul 2012 20:31

Hafez Maglouf - head of another intelligence agency. Dead.

Reports of Asma Asad (Bashars wife) fled to Russia.

___________

Bus carrying Israeli tourists targeted in Bulgaria coastal town. 3 dead

----------------
Domino by domino Russian interests are being taken out. Russia is gettin weaker and weaker every year.

pentaiah · Post by **pentaiah** » 18 Jul 2012 22:02

That means Russia will expedite the Iranian Bomb

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 18 Jul 2012 22:25

^^ and let the Iranians compete in the Russian back yard and lose more?

pentaiah · Post by **pentaiah** » 18 Jul 2012 22:28

its then no longer a Russian problem, what else has Russian got to lose Siberia to PRC at most due to illegal migration of Hans and dwindling demography?

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 18 Jul 2012 23:00

Shyamdji,
What was the role of "social media" and "traditional media" in engineering regime changes in ME in recent years ?
Is any one tracking how the rumours of "massacres" supposedly perpetrated by the regimes are being exaggerated/amplified over the social media and how this phenomenon is helping the "rebel" cause ...?

Were there any examples of the opposite occuring - i.e was any beseiged govt in ME able to use social media to its advantage , to stabilisize a crisis.

I expect the Russian intelligence has a good grip of how this western backed social media mobilization works (by close analysis of the antiputin mobilization few months back) - they should share any countermeasures they have developed with India,Latin America, Middle East and Africa.
We sat easy till now considering the huge size of our demographics and low penetration of internet which makes it more difficult to influense and rise up behind a single cause.
But India should wake up now and go the chinese way by deploying its own substitutes for twitter,facebook,search etc within the next decade. Its only a matter of time before a large proportion of vernacular educated youth become wired with the impending cheap tablet revolution.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 18 Jul 2012 23:29

Israeli prime minister blames Iran for Bulgaria bomb

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday blamed Iran for a bomb blast which killed at least three people in the Bulgarian resort of Burgas and said Israel would respond.

"All the signs lead to Iran. Only in the past few months we have seen Iranian attempts to attack Israelis in Thailand, India, Georgia, Kenya, Cyprus and other places," Netanyahu said in a statement.

"Eighteen years exactly after the blast at the Jewish community centre in Argentina, murderous Iranian terror continues to hit innocent people. This is an Iranian terror attack that is spreading throughout the entire world. Israel will react powerfully against Iranian terror," he said.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 18 Jul 2012 23:38

The kind of asset Iran has developed and the kind of technology it has demonstrated in Nuclear and Missile Field including development of advanced RV , developing simple fission device should be a less challenging task the only problem is availability of U235 or PU that has been sufficiently enriched into bomb grade material.

History has shown that even rouge countries like North Korea or Pakistan can deter a far bigger power even if they have demonstrated device of simple fission type .....I am sure the events in W Asia and Israel possession of covert nuclear weapons has not gone unnoticed by Iran leadership.

I think it is just a matter of when Iran proves it has the capability and not if and what would trigger that "when" events is a matter of any one guess ....me thinks it will be the last resort to gurantee the sovereignty of its nation or its sheer existence.

I am sure Nuclear Iran will be a major problem for ROW but the world has already learnt to live with Nuclear Pakistan and North Korea and even Israel , if any thing else even documented Proliferation of Weapons Design has not met with any serious consequences for Pakistan Army such is premium of holding nuclear weapons ....eventually the world would learn to live with nuclear Iran.

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 18 Jul 2012 23:45

shyamd wrote: ----------------
Domino by domino Russian interests are being taken out. Russia is gettin weaker and weaker every year.

Cannot rule out the possibility that this attack on top officials in Syria has Israel/US involved in passing tech/signals intelligence. Sends message to Russia of willingness to escalate.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 19 Jul 2012 01:40

Pentaiah, they won't let them get nukes. Simple as that, but they will try to keep the regime alive.
Russia is losing Uzbekistan but securing central Asia via military bases in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan etc. they see central Asia as their back yard and there are limits to the relations with Iran and PRC. Problem is that Russian economy is weak and doesn't have much to offer so likelihood is with TAPI and others Russian hold will become weaker over time but they will fight to keep their 'back yard'

Lilo ji, helped but is not the main factor. Of course rebels killed regime members and families and some were reported and BBC etc did point out both sides in debate but regime killings were larger and use of artillery and tanks to kill people. They will use media to defend their interests and support military operations.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 19 Jul 2012 01:53

ShauryaT wrote:
shyamd wrote: ----------------
Domino by domino Russian interests are being taken out. Russia is gettin weaker and weaker every year.
Cannot rule out the possibility that this attack on top officials in Syria has Israel/US involved in passing tech/signals intelligence. Sends message to Russia of willingness to escalate.

As I said a long ago, Bashar was going to fall and Russian interests are taking a beating worldwide.
Bashar couldn't secure his borders.

Russia has its weaknesses which I would like to talk about later. They are not as strong as they used to be in the soviet times.

The GCC/Turks are running the C4I with the FSA. So they planned and designed the tactics along with Syrians.

------------1
Do you remember the fall of Sirte and Tripoli? It came all of a sudden.

---------
Bashar can still count on a well trained and equipped alawite force of 120k
He still has legs left IMO
---------
IDF commanders meeting to discuss Syrian situation. They have to intervene to stop chemical weapons getting in the hands of terrorist groups.

Without a doubt they will be lobbying Washington diplomatically for a political solution too

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 19 Jul 2012 03:05

The ME is sitting on a powder keg.The assassinations are a body blow to Assad's regime.His holding on depends upon the loyalty of the armed forces.To lose these key individuals is a devastating blow and how efficiently the core protecting him and the capital will function after these leadership losses is a moot point.The Syrian opposition seem to be taking a leaf out of the LTTE's books,by concentrating upon eliminating the key leadership.

The huge Q now is what can the Russians and Chinese-to a lesser extent do to preserve the regime? Secondly,if the regime is going to fall,will Assad use his version of the "Sampson Option" and attack Israel with whatever chem. weapons ,etc., he may have up his sleeve? The next week to 10 days are going to be crucial.Will it further deteriorate by drawing in the opposing superpowers too into the conflict?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... tacks.html

Xcpt:

Syria: Assad 'facing the end' after Damascus bomb attacks
Syria’s opposition proclaimed “the beginning of the end” for Bashar al-Assad’s regime on Wednesday night after a bomb attack in the heart of Damascus killed three of the president’s closest lieutenants, including his powerful brother-in-law.

By Adrian Blomfield, Middle East Correspondent, Ruth Sherlock in Beirut and Damien McElroy

18 Jul 2012

Striking the very core of Mr Assad’s defence apparatus, the bomb exploded inside the headquarters of Syria’s national security council as officials convened a meeting of the 'crisis cell’ set up to crush the 16-month uprising against the president’s rule.

For weeks, Mr Assad’s power had been visibly crumbling, weakened by a series of high-profile defections. But yesterday’s attack amounted to an evisceration of his inner sanctum, a solitary strike more devastating than any other rebel act during the past 16 months of blood-letting.

In a series of grim broadcasts, state television confirmed the fatalities: Gen Daoud Rajha, the defence minister, Gen Hassan Turkmani, assistant to the vice-president and head of the crisis cell, and Assef Shawkat, the husband of Mr Assad’s sister and the most important scalp of all. Mr Shawkat was referred to by some Syrians as their “second president”.

There were reports that Mohammed Shaar, the interior minister, was also among the dead, while Gen Hisham Ikhtiyar, one of Mr Assad’s intelligence chiefs, was said to have been wounded.

Late last night, there were also claims from one rebel spokesman that Mr Assad himself may have been at the meeting when the bomb went off. It was suggested that he may have been wounded and taken out of Damascus on a private jet. Both reports were unconfirmed.

The cause of the explosion was also unclear. Initial reports suggested it may have been the work of a suicide bomber, with government officials alleging that the perpetrator was a bodyguard.

But senior rebel officials told The Daily Telegraph that bombs hidden in a flower arrangement and a chocolate box were remotely detonated by defectors working to bring down the regime from within.

Both the Free Syrian Army and a jihadi group calling itself Liwa al-Islam claimed responsibility, although they may have been acting in collaboration.

“There were two bombs,” Louay al-Mokdad, the FSA’s logistical coordinator said. “One was hidden in a packet of chocolates and one in a big flower pot that was in the middle of the table of the conference room.” He claimed that the operation was conducted by a group of FSA members in collaboration with drivers and bodyguards working for Mr Assad’s inner circle, a version repeated by other activists.

The two devices, one made of 25lb of TNT, and the other a smaller “C4” plastic explosive, were said to have been planted in the room days before the meeting by an opposition mole working for Gen Ikhtiyar. Mr Mokdad claimed that the meeting may have been led by Mr Assad or by his brother Maher, who has been the regime’s battlefield commander in the uprising. “I have just spoken with the driver who brought the explosive package,” he said. “He is trying to understand who led the meeting; whether it was Bashar or Maher.”

Whatever the truth behind the attack, its timing in the midst of an opposition offensive raises the credibility of the opposition as a guerrilla movement — a fact that could prove decisive in dictating the remainder of the conflict.

In the aftermath of the blast, the regime reacted with predictable fury, vowing to “wipe out the criminal gangs in their rotten dens”. Tanks and helicopter gunships were deployed in full force and rebel strongholds in the capital’s Sunni suburbs were subjected to the most ferocious bombardment of the uprising, according to both residents and rebels.

But the regime’s threats had a hollowness to them. With the president no longer able to protect those closest to him, a surge in the number of defections seems highly likely. The FSA reported the desertion of 500 government soldiers near the presidential palace in Damascus, while other opposition sources said that a senior security official had switched sides, taking 120 tanks with him. There were even rumours that Mr Assad had packed his wife Asma off to Moscow.

Such claims may turn out to be far-fetched, but there can be little doubting how swiftly morale among those who have remained loyal will be ebbing.

In parts of the country under effective opposition control, Syrians celebrated as though they had ousted Mr Assad, hooting horns and firing into the air.

The international community struggled to keep pace with the unfolding events. William Hague, the Foreign Secretary, condemned the killings as an act of assassination, but said the bombing showed more than ever the need for world powers to unite to end the crisis.

Syrian rebels seemed convinced that a turning point had been reached in the civil war, one that proved they could win without further international assistance.

The FSA, which had predicted an imminent “surprise” on the eve of the attack, claimed that its assault on the capital, named “Damascus Volcano”, would take them to the verge of victory.

“This is the volcano we talked about; we have just started,” said Qassem Saadedine, the group’s spokesman. “We have smashed the inner circle of Bashar,” another rebel official boasted.

The head of the main civilian opposition group, the Syrian National Council, demonstrated similar confidence.

“This is the final phase. They will fall very soon,” Abdelbasset Seida said. “Today is a turning point in Syria’s history. It will put more pressure on the regime and bring an end very soon.”

Even so, the battle for Damascus is in its early stages. The rebels appeared to withstand the government’s assault, and succeeded in overrunning a security base. But Mr Assad still retains a powerful army and a stockpile of chemical weapons. The longer he can hold together his regime, the longer he will be able to survive and perhaps even regroup in the wake of yesterday’s attack.

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 19 Jul 2012 03:40

svenkat wrote:Johann,
I have immense respect for the smartness of west like most indians of 'my' ilk.

That is precisely my point. There is a tendency to give the West way, way more credit than it is due.

The entire ME political GEOGRAPHY is a relic of WESTERN Colonialism. The West is doing what Imperialists have always done.Which is to protect their influence.To look for logic beyond self-interests in their actions is ridiculous.

Both of those facts are absolutely true.

However its a huge mistake to think of what is happening as solely, or even largely the result of Western string pulling, as if millions of literate people are nothing but a bunch of meat puppets for white men on the other side of the world.

Arab public opinion is most certainly NOT pro-Western, or pro-Western intervention, but it is overwhelmingly on the side of those fighting the Syrian government.

The Arabs of these countries are incredibly nationalist. They *believe* in their countries and their borders just as much as you do in yours given the struggles they went through to regain control. They are incredibly aware of their loss of power under imperial and colonial rule.

So pause to ask yourself why they are acting in the numbers in the way that they are. Give them more credit. Ask yourself how much of their lived experience you know or understand. Or best of all talk to people from the region.

But its the too-clever explanations that 'we' have problems with.

KSA and Bahrain serve western purposes as Pranav has pointed out.

Egypt's military also serves Western purposes, and so did Saleh in Yemen, and Ben Ali in Tunisia. They are not one iota less valuable than Bahrain. Yet they lost or are losing as well.

However much many people in Washington would prefer to do business with the Army over the Muslim Brotherhood, they dont think they can afford to any more.

But the balance of power in these societies has for now shifted away from the state and towards street politics. There was a similar moment in the Arab world 40-50 years ago.

Give Saudi and the Gulf another 20-30 years and the same thing will happen as the local educated, professional class grows and weakens the bonds between the monarchs and their tribal subjects. The Gulf is still catching up with modernity.

The ME is not experiencing change in a vacuum.There is massive western involvement in support,propoganda,gentle/not so gentle direction/steering.The West is not stupid to jump in if theres is no public support for change.But why do they support quo by repression elsewhere?Its where they remain quiet that explains why some revolutions are 'allowed' .(no disrespect meant for arab political processes). Nothing more from me.

50 years ago a wave of unstoppable revolutions swept the Middle East overthrowing the pro-Western monarchies in more educated, less tribal Arab states, replacing them with Arab nationalist, semi-socialist military regimes.

Many Westerners had a response that exactly mirrored yours - this is only happening because of Soviet and East Bloc subversion. These people were far more awed and fearful of the Soviets and Communism than they were respectful or informed of the Arab world.

The truth was that a young, freshly educated and connected population were aware that the world was changing and were tired of a political system that wasn't working for them. They demanded change and got it.

The same thing is happening again in the Arab world 50 years later, but under somewhat different world circumstances. There is no reason to assume the outcome is going to be especially pro-Western, or that the wave of change that comes after that is going.

Its going to keep happening over and over again until the Arabs sort the whole democracy thing out.

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 19 Jul 2012 04:05

Philip wrote:The assassinations are a body blow to Assad's regime.His holding on depends upon the loyalty of the armed forces.To lose these key individuals is a devastating blow and how efficiently the core protecting him and the capital will function after these leadership losses is a moot point.The Syrian opposition seem to be taking a leaf out of the LTTE's books,by concentrating upon eliminating the key leadership.

Its much, much worse than it looks.

The attack was not on a street or a parade ground. This was not a bomb out of the sky, or a determined suicide bomber in a stolen uniform in some semi-public place.

It was in the secure conference room of their national security council secretariat.

There are many, many men in mid to high positions within the regime forces who now hate the regime and want out but cant escape because of surveillance.

So instead they stay in place - passing on information, recruiting others, sabotaging the regime through active and passive measures, and assisting the FSA with major operations.

Neither Saddam nor Gaddafi faced this kind inner circle betrayal

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 19 Jul 2012 04:22

^^
Johann, there is something called "being ripe for revolution" that communists talk about. A small number of revolutionaries can foment trouble using propaganda etc till things come to a boil and then step in and deliver the coup de grace. It doesn't mean the communists are all-powerful, it just means that they know how to take the tide at the flood. In Hindi it is called ek dhakka aur: one shove more.

No reason to not expect similar things from the west. Except that instead of direct takeover they are content to back Islamists and endanger the world.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 19 Jul 2012 04:47

Asad is by no means out yet. He still has formidable intel set up - Air force intel who are guarding the chemical weapons and have extensive experience in intel ops inside and outside the country. Gen Ali mamluk, and many others. Today was a big jolt but by no means put him out of business. So next they may hit another eye. Mohammed Nassef kheirbek is still there, he is a Lebanon specialist and has established contact with European intel services to negotiate with west of need be

He is now relying on 2 intel agencies - Military intelligence and Air force intelligence. So the next step will be to remove one of these eyes. And make he needs the survival of 2 eyes to make sure he isn't relying on just one intel service for survival

-----------------
Administration and pentagon officials hav been in touch with their Israeli counterparts to seek clarity as to whether the israelis will be planning military operations to seize the chemical weapons.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 19 Jul 2012 05:30

I keep thinking about what it took to pull of that bomb attack. The information on time and place & participants could only have been known by a chosen few. Less than a dozen. This things have a notorious tendency to change time and apparently even that did not prevent the precision of the attack. It would not surprise me if Bashar himself had been the target and escaped providentially. Not only that the detonation was not on a timer, some one very very close pressed the button. Likely very high up. Forget Saddam, even Gaddafi did not suffer this, even in the crazed running thru the desert in your robe & chappals days....
-----------------------------------

The difference with Libya I would note is Population & density. Assad 120 k are not a lot when you compare the 25 million population and the small land area, essentially all folks in the Eastern edge. Syria is also far more rugged and wooded. Think of the troubles USA had with the 2.5 million Sunni's in Iraq and the 300k hardened troops they had there. It is going to be Assads 120k vs 15-20 million folks. The odds are horrible IMO, far worse than Libya.

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 19 Jul 2012 05:42

KLNMurthy wrote:^^
Johann, there is something called "being ripe for revolution" that communists talk about. A small number of revolutionaries can foment trouble using propaganda etc till things come to a boil and then step in and deliver the coup de grace. It doesn't mean the communists are all-powerful, it just means that they know how to take the tide at the flood. In Hindi it is called ek dhakka aur: one shove more.

No reason to not expect similar things from the west. Except that instead of direct takeover they are content to back Islamists and endanger the world.

Thats a useful analogy. Because the Communists are never simply about overthrowing an existing regime. That is merely the means to the end of seizing power for themselves.

So lets look at Egypt. Who was the Americans preference for Mubarak's successor? The first choice on the hard security side was Omar Suleiman, head of Egyptian intelligence whom the CIA trusted almost completely since 1993, and whom the Israelis had confidence in.

On the liberal, State Department side the preference was for either El-Baradei, formerly of the IAEA, and then Amr Moussa, former secretary of the Arab League.

Who did the Egyptians chose? None of the above.

In parliamentary elections the great hope was the liberals, Wael Ghonem and the rest allied with the April 6th movement that mobilised so many Egyptians through a very effective social networking campaign. They only did so-so in the elections.

Not very impressive as puppeteers I must say....

The very best the US Government can do is try to ride the wave like a champion surfer. Its impressive when its well done, but the surfer is not the wave itself, and certainly doesnt control it. That is the reality of our new 24-hour news cycle and ultra wired world

I can tell you for a fact that most governments in the West are *struggling* to handle the pace of crisis management these days. Bureaucracies were not built for this pace of information processing and decision making.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 19 Jul 2012 05:43

David Ignatius: The endgame in Syria
David Ignatius
Wednesday, Jul 18, 2012
http://mobile.washingtonpost.com/rss.js ... d=-1&spf=1

As Syria veers toward a violent political transition, U.S. officials are hoping to avoid a dangerous vacuum like the one that followed the 2003 toppling of Saddam Hussein in neighboring Iraq and triggered a sectarian civil war.

President Obama is seeking a “managed transition” in Syria with the twin goals of removing President Bashar al-Assad as soon as possible and doing so without the evaporation of the authority of the Syrian state.

The need to safeguard Syria’s chemical-weapons arsenal is one reason why the United States is stressing an orderly transfer in which the opposition works with acceptable elements of the regime and army. The slow-and-steady U.S. approach has angered some militant Sunni opposition leaders, who prefer a decapitation of the regime and a revolutionary transition.

U.S. officials believe that Syria is nearing the tipping point, after a bombing on Wednesday killed Asef Shawkat, Assad’s brother-in-law and one of the regime’s most notorious henchmen, and Dawoud Rajha, the defense minister who was the regime’s most prominent Christian. Fighting had raged Tuesday in the Damascus suburbs, with Syrian tanks and helicopter gunships attacking opposition forces a few miles from downtown.

A U.S. official this week described Syria as a Levantine version of the “Wild West.” Assad’s forces have lost control of many parts of the country: “They cannot hold what they clear,” is how one U.S. official put it, using a buzz phrase of U.S. counterinsurgency doctrine. Syria’s borders have become porous, turning parts of the country into what one observer describes as “Opposition-stan.”

In this chaotic environment, “every intelligence service is gaming it out,” trying to understand the opposition and its leadership and structure, the U.S. official said.

The CIA has been working with the Syrian opposition for several weeks under a non-lethal directive that allows the United States to evaluate groups and assist them with command and control. Scores of Israeli intelligence officers are also operating along Syria’s border, though they are keeping a low profile.

The main transit routes into Syria come from the four points of the compass — Turkey, Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon. The two key axes, in terms of Western assistance, are Turkey and Jordan, both close allies of the United States. The two potential flash points for spreading the sectarian fighting are Lebanon and Iraq, both of which have substantial Shiite militias allied with Iran, which backs Assad.

The most urgent question for CIA officers is how potent are al-Qaeda and its affiliates in the Syrian opposition. The answer seems to be that, while al-Qaeda is a factor, other opposition groups are promising the United States that they will root it out — once they have disposed of the Assad regime. That’s somewhat reassuring, similar to the alliance Gen. David Petraeus formed in Iraq with Sunni militias against al-Qaeda.

Another U.S. message to the Sunni opposition is that it must reach out to the Syrian minorities allied with the regime — Alawites, Christians and Druze — and reassure them that they will have substantial representation in any new post-Assad government. So far, this inter-communal dialogue has gotten more lip service than real action.

In dealing with Syria’s substantial chemical-weapons arsenal, the United States will have two goals: preventing Assad from using them against his own people and preventing extremist members of the opposition from capturing these weapons of mass destruction and gaining operational control of them.

Libya was a test case for controlling chemical weapons amid revolutionary chaos. CIA officers on the ground helped the Libyan opposition secure the main chemical-weapons bunker at Waddan. The CIA also helped connect the new Libyan government with officials from the deposed regime of Col. Moammar Gaddafi who were knowledgeable about the location of the weapons.

The CIA team, working with the Libyans, discovered that in addition to the Waddan stockpile, the regime had imported — perhaps from Iran — chemical-weapons artillery shells that were hidden in Sabha, a town in the central desert that is Gaddafi’s ancestral home. These were moved to Waddan, where they are now awaiting disposal, under international supervision.

The Syrian denouement promises to be much bloodier and more destabilizing than what happened in Libya. It’s a measure of U.S. caution that officials speak not of preventing sectarian violence after Assad is toppled but of keeping it from spinning out of control.

The United States still wants Russian help in managing the Syrian transition, but officials warn that as the situation becomes more violent, the window for effective international cooperation may be closing.

[email protected]

More on this topic:

The Post’s View: The breaking point in Syria

Jackson Diehl: Obama’s Iran and Syria muddle

Charles Krauthammer: Syria — it’s not just about freedom

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 19 Jul 2012 05:51

shyamd wrote:Asad is by no means out yet. He still has formidable intel set up - Air force intel who are guarding the chemical weapons and have extensive experience in intel ops inside and outside the country. Gen Ali mamluk, and many others. Today was a big jolt but by no means put him out of business. So next they may hit another eye. Mohammed Nassef kheirbek is still there, he is a Lebanon specialist and has established contact with European intel services to negotiate with west of need be

The regime is going to lose Damascus sooner rather than later.

Its a Sunni majority area, and with high ranking Sunnis defecting both overtly and covertly, regime control in the capital and capital region (the Ghouta) is dissolving.

We're tipping from the point where regime control was the norm and the rebels operated in pockets to the inverse.

Its the regime that now only has pockets of control.

However those pockets have a firepower advantage ( absent the Libya style air campaign) and can hold out for a while. That is the point when negotiations will be very important in preventing the kind of extremely destructive scorched-earth fighting.

So yes the regime isn't done, but it will soon be done in Damascus.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 19 Jul 2012 06:07

^^
Johann, what many here are incredulous about is the notion that events like the impending overthrow are purely and simply a "people's freedom movement" with the west merely a bystander struggling to cope with the changes. We would be just as skeptical of the marxist equivalent. Such skepticism doesn't equate to a naive magical belief that "the man" controls all--an equivalence you have imputed more than once. Even if you see some naive sounding language, it is just shorthand for "west is not uninvolved" or some such, or it reflects selective focus on the involvement aspect.

You have been on this forum long. You should know that people here are not fools or children, as a rule. For many of us, English requires effort--we are not "good english" TFTA pakis--and people tend to save their best composition efforts for compensated work.

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 19 Jul 2012 06:11

Re Russia, only with departure of Putin will they realise they are a western, Christian power after all and seek out a cooperative niche with Unkil. They don't have to be a obedient deputy like John Howard's Oz or a poodle like Blair's Britain but work together as partners on Islamic jehadi terrorism and ME evil Wahabi influences over Asian region etc. That would benefit India enormously.

Picking quarrel over Assad sort of characters is just not worth it.

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 19 Jul 2012 06:38

KLNMurthy wrote:^^
Johann, what many here are incredulous about is the notion that events like the impending overthrow are purely and simply a "people's freedom movement" with the west merely a bystander struggling to cope with the changes.

The West is certainly not just a bystander. It seeks to shape events to its benefit. That is not - at least on my part - in dispute.

However the initiative isn't with the West, and never has been during the Arab Spring. It is a player, but far from being the key player.

In every case of the Arab Spring it boils down to the dynamics between the ruling family, the military high command, the military rank and file, and the general population.

As you've said, there are moments when societies are ripe for change because people hate the status quo. But Western governments can not make people - especially people like the Arabs, a people intensely suspicious of the West - hate their own government.

As I said earlier the most the West can do is speed up the fall of an already doomed regime.

However it doesn't have the power to chose what follows after any overthrow.

We saw that in Egypt.

We even saw that in Iraq after 2003. Believe me, Maliki wasn't even Cheney/Rumsfeld's top 10 choices. The Dawaa Party had too many Iranian connections for comfort. That was America's power with 150,000 boots on the ground. America *adapted* to the triumph of Iranian-friendly Shiite Islamist parties, but thats the best it could do

p.s. KLNM - I'm sorry if I made you feel that some of my more general criticisms of certain lines of argument are aimed at you in particular. While we disagree about many things I always take what you have to say seriously - you always write in a very clear headed and well informed way.

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 19 Jul 2012 07:38

Johann: Are you saying that the Arab spring can be most compared to the Iranian revolution, where a growing middle class overthrew an installed monarch/regime?

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 19 Jul 2012 08:04

ShauryaT wrote:Johann: Are you saying that the Arab spring can be most compared to the Iranian revolution, where a growing middle class overthrew an installed monarch/regime?

Yes, its similar, but obviously not identical .

What's similar is that these are mass movements composed of a coalition of different social classes and ideological orientations.

And like the Iranian revolution different external players are hoping to build relationships and set themselves up for influence in whatever is to come - which like the Iranian revolution is not predictable, and not set in stone. Even in Tunisia and Egypt things are still shaking out.

As for what's different from Iran 1978-81, it varies from country to country.

But the biggest difference in general I'd say is that on the whole the Arab populations in question have had 30 more years to learn lessons from both their own history and Iran's since the revolution. The Arabs are no longer looking for a charismatic leader to surrender power and responsibility to, which is a huge sign of progress towards democratic politics.

Also, the absence of the Cold War, and the de-escalation of 'War on Terror' since Rumsfeld's departure rhetoric makes the political space much less toxic.

Plus middle class populations now are much better connected to the outside world and better informed in every sense.

Anand K · Post by **Anand K** » 19 Jul 2012 08:10

Any chance we will see this happen in Saud's Barbaria?

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 19 Jul 2012 08:12

Johann wrote: So lets look at Egypt. Who was the Americans preference for Mubarak's successor? The first choice on the hard security side was Omar Suleiman, head of Egyptian intelligence whom the CIA trusted almost completely since 1993, and whom the Israelis had confidence in.

On the liberal, State Department side the preference was for either El-Baradei, formerly of the IAEA, and then Amr Moussa, former secretary of the Arab League.

Who did the Egyptians chose? None of the above.

That is why the US state department was leaning on the Egyptians to use Indian EVMs. The man Friday Qureishi (then CEC) had even visited Egypt for the purpose.

Fortunately the Egyptians were sane enough to reject such lunacy. US style democracy needs EVMs to succeed.

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 19 Jul 2012 08:14

Anand K wrote:Any chance we will see this happen in Saud's Barbaria?

Yes, in 20 years when the new generation of educated Saudi professionals currently in the pipeline are in place.

Right now its still too much of a traditional tribal society where no one wants to offend their elders, and where the royal family can buy off the unhappy with generous handouts and some anti-Shia rhetoric.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 19 Jul 2012 08:24

Suppiah wrote:Re Russia, only with departure of Putin will they realise they are a western, Christian power after all

Western elites are not Christian in the traditional sense.

Actually, most denominations of Christianity have been very much tamed.

The prototypical modern politically correct Christians are people like John Hagee. The traditional Churches are less overt but have equally been brought into line at the top levels.

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 19 Jul 2012 08:31

Re barbaria, actually looking purely from Indian perspective, the bigger danger is Wahabi terrorism and fundamentalism not Shia fundamentalism. We are not like Israel for whom both are huge threats.

Hence reform in S. Barbaria is far higher in importance than taking down Iran/Assad etc. for us.

However, defeating these two cannot be done simultaneously, it has to be one by one. For good or bad, Unkil has co-opted one of the evils to take out the other and we, being marginal players in this arena, have no choice but to go along.

Ultimately though, what will cook the goose of this region and make it (once again) a useless desert full of barbarians of no use or interest to civilised humans is the end of oil era. Unkil/West is also working on it at war pace away from media highlight - both to reduce reliance on ME oil and to reduce reliance on oil itself. Both are showing remarkable success.

We have no choice but to wait..as I suspect these will happen long before we grow enough muscle to be a player in our own right.

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 19 Jul 2012 08:33

Pranav wrote: Actually, most denominations of Christianity have been very much tamed.

It is not just religious piety, church attendance and overt symbolic compliance we are talking about - it is the deep impact on thought, behaviour and actions. That does not go away that soon..

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 19 Jul 2012 08:36

Suppiah wrote:
Pranav wrote: Actually, most denominations of Christianity have been very much tamed.
It is not just religious piety, church attendance and overt symbolic compliance we are talking about - it is the deep impact on thought, behaviour and actions. That does not go away that soon..

The correct way to understand most Church organizations is as tools of propaganda and control, something like a Communist party, but obviously different in style, so as to serve a different market segment for the same elites.

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 19 Jul 2012 08:37

Johann wrote: Yes, in 20 years when the new generation of educated Saudi professionals currently in the pipeline are in place.

The bunch of so-called 'educated new gen' arabs that I met dont give me much hope on that front. It will just be the same Wahabi fundamentalism onlee with enough English language skills and articulation to throw a fine spin on it..and pretend to be modern, just as the puke-barics in the west do with good effect..

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 19 Jul 2012 08:40

Egypt's Mori is a Phd from USC in Engineering!

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 19 Jul 2012 08:45

Bit like saying an educated communist will be more acceptable and progressive than a worker that takes to Maoism....we all know how true that is from India as well as overseas experience with comrades like Pol Pot.

As someone said of Imran Khan - taliban without beard. Morsi grows one though..

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 19 Jul 2012 09:39

Suppiah wrote:
Johann wrote: Yes, in 20 years when the new generation of educated Saudi professionals currently in the pipeline are in place.
The bunch of so-called 'educated new gen' arabs that I met dont give me much hope on that front. It will just be the same Wahabi fundamentalism onlee with enough English language skills and articulation to throw a fine spin on it..and pretend to be modern, just as the puke-barics in the west do with good effect..

That may or may not be.

My point is that the absolute monarchy currently in place can not survive - it will have to devolve more political powers and fundamental rights towards the general population (especially the educated middle class) the way that Jordan, Morocco and Kuwait were forced to. Or they will be overthrown.

Political fossilisation which when combined with increased access to education and information spells death for a regime, especially if there are economic issues. If not today then tomorrow.

Bahrain's royal family's solution right now is virtual union with Saudi Arabia to rework the demographics. That is only a temporary fix at best.

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 19 Jul 2012 09:49

Suppiah wrote:Ultimately though, what will cook the goose of this region and make it (once again) a useless desert full of barbarians of no use or interest to civilised humans is the end of oil era. Unkil/West is also working on it at war pace away from media highlight - both to reduce reliance on ME oil and to reduce reliance on oil itself. Both are showing remarkable success.

Dont hold your breath on this one. While the GCC governments will have less disposable wealth in the future, the end of the era of oil and gas is nowhere near. Nor are energy prices likely to stay down any time soon.

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 19 Jul 2012 09:51

Johann, from Indian POV, the issue is not whether they are ruled by elected govts., loya jirgas or despots or monarchs or mullas..the issue is incubation of jehadi terrorist, Wahabi fundamentalist ideology, its export and seek to spoil moderate muslims globally and mould them in arabaric flavor, as is happening already in SEA. And of course, funding Pakbarics in their jehadi terrorist campaign against India and using oil as a terrorist weapon.

I see very little of that changing even as regimes come and go. Which is why I also support Israel in all its efforts.

The sequence Unkil appears to be working on appeals to me. Use one barbarian to take out the other, control and manipulate them and destroy their economic fountainhead so that they are never a threat to humanity.

IMHO India has to join that effort. In the meantime, taqiya such as inviting these animals to Republic day celebrations etc., is always ok. provided it does become the only thing we do.

Hopes and prayers are not the answer..

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 19 Jul 2012 09:54

Johann wrote: Dont hold your breath on this one. While the GCC governments will have less disposable wealth in the future, the end of the era of oil and gas is nowhere near. Nor are energy prices likely to stay down any time soon.

Let us see..did you read the excellent article posted somewhere here at BRF.."fading arab oil empire" posted at Nationalinterest.org website?

The sword of Damocles that has implicitly hovered over the West since the 1970s will be gone.

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 19 Jul 2012 10:04

Johann wrote:Dont hold your breath on this one. While the GCC governments will have less disposable wealth in the future, the end of the era of oil and gas is nowhere near. Nor are energy prices likely to stay down any time soon.

Oil era is not the same as gas era. ME has much less control over gas and is much harder to export long distances. In any case, higher energy prices are a necessary side effect of the current western strategy of keeping ME pot constantly on the boil, which is to keep them busy killing each other and not rest of us. IMHO a worthwhile price to pay. A lot of that $$ comes back to Unkil's banks as arms money or in other ways including equity investment...

In any case, barring extremely abnormal spikes, West has learnt to live and prosper with it. It is us poor Indians and the like, that don't have options, that are hit by oil price hike. Their oil usage, particularly ME oil, is declining both absolute and relative scale..time may soon come when oil price hike is same impact as beer price hike (or less

in places like Germany)

There is yet another side benefit to that - it keeps alternate technologies, be it shale gas or solar or whatever, affordable comparatively, until they can reach scale and cost that matches oil.