West Asia News and Discussions

[Johann]

I'll say again, the MB candidates were the American's fourth or fifth choice.

Omar Suleiman was first, then El-Baradei, then Amr Moussa. The next in line from the same regime, then liberals they had dealt with, and then liberals with an Egyptian base.

The problem is that the choice doesn't lie with the Americans, it lies with the Egyptians.

The Americans are in touch with *every* major political force - they have to be prepared to work with any party finds itself in an influential position, or at least know if working with them is even possible.

During the cold war American Democratic presidential administrations were willing to work with centre-left parties, particularly in European countries where Marxism was growing in order to suck away support from the communists. The Italian Socialists for example weren't their first choice, but they were still seen as the better alternative to the Italian communisti.

In the same way in the post 9/11 there are people, especially in the Democratic Party who are as a fallback willing to work with Turkish AKP style Islamism-lite to help keep out the Wahhabis. Its still not their first choice though.

[Johann]

I have always contended that even the Egyptian promotion of MB was taking place under Mubarak - since the assassination of his predecessor. Contrary to claims, Mubarak did not suppress the foundation of MB - the clerical networks, but all that he did was eliminate the more aggressive or independent elements of MB. This indicates that those who were too uncomfortable for western perspectives, or in terms of western control - were eliminated.

Mubarak like many secular dictators in the Muslim world still needed a prominent mullah's blessings to win the support of active believers in order to broaden the support base. The Assads, Saddam, etc all did the same thing.

In Egypt that means working a deal with the top clerics at Al-Azhar University. Of course Al-Azhar has deep links with the MB. The quid pro quo Mubarak, like Sadat before him had to give was greater prominence (media time etc for Al Azhar's ulema) and limited tolerance for MB activity.

However Mubarak repeatedly cracked down on the MB when ever they seemed to be getting cocky to keep them off-balance.

That is why the MB did not really participate in the Tahrir Square protests that overthrew Mubarak. The MB have participated in so many failed protest movements over the decades that they know *exactly* what the price of failure would be. The MB only came out in force after the liberals had done the hard work and it was clear that Mubarak was going to lose.

Unlike suicidal jihadis, the MB's first priority is always its own survival. That pragmatism is both good in terms of their ability to really change, but its also dangerous because changes in behaviour sometimes mask a lack of changes in the heart.

[shyamd]

what people do not compare and study is the track record of the failed "uprisings" besides the success stories. If you see, and I have posted on the west asia thread long ago - there has been a consistent trend of agrarian discontent based dissent against ruling regimes in ME. From time to time it has been used by various dissenting factions of the urban elite, for their own power games, but they never succeeded if the commoner uprising was not aligned with western interests and transnational big biz interests [including of course oil and drugs] in changing regimes..

Just to add to Johann's points above... I'll just say this:
Its not a surprise that "revolutionaries" take the support of powerful backers and get that backer to remove their support by guaranteeing them more interests. For a coup to succeed it needs the permission of countries that can influence the coup/revolution (so erstwhile USSR or US or a regional power that the nation in question has a military agreement with) and its always by guaranteeing that the party will gain if they support the revolution. In 1911, the chinese revolutionaries got support from western bankers - after a lot of effort and promises. The westerners weren't ready to break with the imperial powers until a lot of convincing as the imperial govt was about to get a loan to be used to finance the war against the revolutionaries.

Today in Syria - the revolution got the support of the GCC and the US. The promise will obviously be getting rid of Iranian influence and Russian influence.

This has always been the case (many cases in Africa too) and is not a conspiracy.

Read Coup d Etat - Edward Luttwak for more examples and explanations.

[shyamd]

I am worried some of it ending up in hands of LeT/ISI. LeT has tried to acquire Chemical WMD before and this "Going out of Business"/"Garage sale" is too tempting.Once it ends in their hands it will end up in Mumbai. We cannot count on IDF alone to stop them. CIA/MI6 wouldnt care if it ends up in Mumbai. We need our OWN eyes and ears. How good is our presence on ground to stop such an eventuality

Israeli DM has instructed the military to prepare for attack if weapons are transferred to Hezballah. Jordanian, US, Turkish, British and others will band together and launch operations to recover weapons when danger is imminent. No nation will allow it and especially the Israeli's.

For the first time since Iraq war, British have deployed a considerable covert force inside Syria. RAF strike divisions are ready in Cyprus. Just to give you an indiciation of what could be coming the Syrian way if they choose to do anything stupid. NATO surveillance aircraft are operating out of turkey.

This is why I argue for creation of a force of around 1000 - a true SF that can support intelligence operations, Indian diplomacy, training of allied forces and covert intervention supporting Indian strategic objectives.

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Iraqi delegation just landed inTehran on urgent talks on Iraq - Syria supply route. Bets are that Mahdi army with Iraqi military support will take over the border crossing and hand it back to Asad. Will be interesting few days ahead.

[Johann]

Syria embodies the end of colonialism
July 21, 2012 01:26 AM
By Rami G. Khouri
The Daily Star

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Col ... z21CxKvF65

Everything going on at the U.N. Security Council is now irrelevant, and has been for about a month, for the center of gravity of this political struggle shifted some time ago to military developments inside Syria. U.S. Ambassador Susan Rice’s protestations against the Russian and Chinese vetoes of resolutions to pressure Syria are pathetic gibberish, given the much worse track record of the United States in vetoing resolutions that seek to force Israel to comply with international law and morality. The U.S. and Russia at the U.N. are acting like children, with their self-serving hypocrisy and selfishness. We just have to accept that the Security Council does not function when the superpowers shift into infantile mode, and talk nonsense. We should keep our gaze instead on more important things, like developments inside Syria.

This leads me to conclude that the bigger story that links Syria with the other Arab uprisings and recent Middle Eastern developments is that the will and actions of indigenous Arabs, Iranians and Turks will always have a greater impact than anything done by powers abroad. The striking inability of the Americans, Russians and their assorted allies to shape events in Syria follow similar serial failures in recent decades in their attempts to promote Arab-Israeli peace, democratic transformations, economic trajectories or other such strategic issues.

Only when local people across the Middle East took matters into their own hands did conditions change, and history resume. The sentiments of ordinary people such as those in Bab al-Hawa, Midan, Deir al-Zor and Deraa are far more significant that the pronouncements of the world’s powers. The sooner we learn this lesson, the better off we will all be.

The colonial era may finally be drawing to a close.

Rami G. Khouri is published twice weekly by THE DAILY STAR.

[Theo_Fidel]

The end will come when Bashar saab runs out of tanks. He is burning through his inventory at a staggering rate. Just this week I counted something like 80 destroyed tanks, mostly due to abandonment and subsequent disabling by the FSA. He is not getting any more despite his desperate pleadings. I have read that he pulled the Army from the Israeli border in order to cannibalize more tanks. Ignoring APC's which are easily 'plinked' with RGPs, the Syrian army had a inventory of 5,000 tanks prior to the war of which about 3,000 were serviceable. He has been losing about a 100-150 a month due to attacks, break downs and attrition. One suspects he is down to his last 1,000+ or so and he has also lost a lot of experienced crew. Wonder how long he can continue....

[Johann]

He has been losing about a 100-150 a month due to attacks, break downs and attrition. One suspects he is down to his last 1,000+ or so and he has also lost a lot of experienced crew. Wonder how long he can continue....

Not that many have been destroyed.

However most tanks are manned and serviced by Sunni conscripts.

You can shoot infantrymen who waver - but its much harder to take down an MBT once they're battened down inside. Its the same trust factor that keeps many Sunni combat jet pilots confined to base.

Then there's passive resistance within the ranks, and logistical issues on top of that that keep leave a lot of armour in the depot.

[Singha]

in the arab street only those who have guns and backing are credible choices. the Al baradei types are like Manmohan singh - no street level backing. either US is foolish in talking to them as potential choices or its just window dressing to create a paper trail that "look oh we talked to all sikular democratic choices onlee before nasrullah babar v2 was installed". I suspect its 2nd case.

the decision point is when will NATO start its well honed bombing campaign to "protect civilian areas, safeguard democracy and give voice to the aspirations of the oppressed syrian people"

my estimate - campaign will start in 2 months after a well documented massacre or two.
Assad will be dead or in exile in iran in 5 months

[Theo_Fidel]

Bombing campaign will begin if it looks like Assad is winning. Right now it seems unnecessary.
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Johann,

I didn't say but Assad tank loss rate is going to go up dramatically. The Libyan Recoil-less rifle has started showing up in several online video over the past month or so. In Libya these were devastating anti-tank weapons. Without tanks Assad is unable to enforce his writ out side the Alawi coast and the Damascus area. It is tanks that allow him to dislodge the FSA. I suspect that is about to change.

And you are right, for a tank to be effective it has to leave the arms depot. Many have been disabled by sympathizers. There were two reports this week of defecting troops abandoning 20 or so tanks that the FSA then disabled. Atleast 2 dozen were destroyed/abandoned in Damascus over the past 5 days after the high level strike.

Take a look at this video below. That second tank take down in particular looks like recoil less rifle action. Assad is a sitting duck at this point. All that equipment and a $10 IED/EFP/Shape charge takes you out.

[abhishek_sharma]

Democracy, Salafi Style

The good, the bad, and the ugly: Three scenarios for the Middle East

Oh, Brother: Why Egypt's new Islamist president is keeping the Saudis up at night.

[habal]

But initially, I'd like to say that the MB has been trying to have a revolution in the GCC for a very long time. The US has backed them indirectly. The SD negotiated for 3 years with the Tunisian group. The US see's this as a 25 year horizon project. Dubai police chief says US wants MB in power all across the ME by 2016

I clearly remember a BBC interview with Morsi during the Egypt 'spring' where he mentions that this transition would prepare Egypt & neighbouring countries for the 'New World Order'.

[shyamd]

How "Damascus Volcano" erupted in Assad's stronghold

By Andrew Osborn

LONDON | Fri Jul 20, 2012 2:37pm EDT

(Reuters) - As darkness descended over Damascus last Saturday, few of its 1.7 million residents could have had any inkling that a decisive battle to wrest the city from the grasp of President Bashar al-Assad was about to begin.

Insurgents gave the operation a name that reflected their hopes of a successful surprise attack on a city long regarded as an impregnable fortress for the Assad family: "Damascus Volcano and Syrian Earthquake".

"There is no going back," Colonel Qassem Saadeddine, a spokesman for the joint command of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), told Reuters after the fighting had broken out. "We have started the operation to liberate Damascus."

The operation, still under way, has come closer to toppling Assad than anything else in the 16-month uprising against his rule. By nightfall on Friday, six days after it began, rebels had seized control of border crossings and were battling loyalist troops on the streets of Damascus.

The attempt to seize the lair of a man whose father was known as "The Lion of Damascus" had been long in the planning, Saadeddine said. It involved 2,500 fighters who had infiltrated the ancient city's suburbs a week earlier, he said.

Insurgents were especially redeployed from other parts of the country for the task, another FSA officer said separately.

The rebels struck first in the city's southern Hajar al-Aswad district, engaging in sustained battles with government troops who must have wondered what had hit them.

The following day, July 15, the scale of the rebels' ambition became clear. That day, a Sunday, a powerful blast tore through a bus in Damascus carrying security forces personnel, wounding many, and fighting spread to three other city districts.

Residents sympathetic to the insurgents burned tires to distract government troops. Government armored vehicles poured into southern Damascus amid reports that the road to the airport had been closed.

Residents of one of the world's oldest continuously inhabited cities corroborated those accounts described the fighting as the fiercest to touch the capital yet since the uprising began in provincial towns 16 months ago.

Assad had - until then - largely succeeded in shielding his capital and its residents from the extreme violence that has convulsed the rest of the country while he battled to maintain his family's 42-year grip on power.

Even as his tanks and artillery laid waste to parts of other cities, traffic in Damascus circulated, shops and markets kept open, and students continued to study.

But as black smoke rose above Damascus last Sunday and the clatter of machinegun fire rang out - interspersed with the sound of explosions - that illusion of normality was shattered.

TANK FIRE

On day two of the operation, residents of the central district of Midan said their area had become a war zone with snipers deployed on rooftops and heavy fighting between rebels and government troops.

The supply of electricity and water to some districts was cut. Serious clashes broke out in the districts of Zahera and Tadamon. As violence escalated, activists said tanks were in action on the city's streets, a move analysts interpreted as a sign the government was beginning to panic.

Using classic guerrilla warfare tactics, insurgents sheltered in the city's narrow alleys in the knowledge that armored vehicles and tanks would be unable to follow.

Syrian state TV made little reference to what was unfolding, saying only that security forces were chasing "terrorist groups" that had fled to parts of Damascus.

Video footage uploaded by opposition activists showed men in jeans crouching in sandbagged Damascus alleyways, firing rocket-propelled grenades and machineguns. At that point, on Monday, the rebels said they were surrounded by government troops.

The rebels say they have adapted their tactics, becoming more organized and mobile, operating in smaller groups so as to present a smaller target for government forces. They have also turned increasingly to using homemade bombs or improvised explosive devices (IEDs), they have said.

Though foreign backers keep them supplied with a steady stream of small arms smuggled into Syria, it remains unclear how much direction or support the rebels are receiving, if any, from foreign intelligence services.

On the third day of the offensive, July 17, helicopter gunships were reported to have been pressed into action and the rebels said they had shot down one army helicopter.

Clashes of such intensity so close to Assad's seat of power showed his grip on power was weakening, anti-government activists said.

"When you turn your guns against the heart of Damascus, on Midan, you have lost the city," said Imad Moaz, a Damascus-based activist. Video footage showed the charred facades of shops and buildings.

Israeli military intelligence said Assad hurriedly redeployed troops serving near the Israeli border to Damascus in order to bolster his firepower.

ASSASSINATIONS

The fourth day of the battle is the one that changed the course of the war. Battles flared in the morning within sight of Assad's presidential palace, an imposing structure that sits on a sandstone hill overlooking the city.

Assad's most trusted lieutenants, led by his brother-in-law Assef Shawkat, were holding a crisis meeting inside a security headquarters when a bomb blast tore through the room. Shawkat was killed, as was the defense minister and another top general.

The intelligence chief would die of wounds two days later, and the interior minister was also hurt.

Jubilant, the rebels claimed responsibility, boasting that they had pulled off what they called "a turning point in Syria's history", hailing the attack as "the beginning of the end".

It was unclear whether the bomb was delivered by a suicide bomber or whether it had been remotely detonated in the same way that Claus von Stauffenberg had tried and failed to kill Adolf Hitler in 1944.

But the attack - taking out the top layer of Assad's military planners right in the heart of Damascus - gave a huge boost to the rebels while delivering a psychologically devastating blow to the government.

Shell-shocked or lost for words, Assad did not appear on state TV until the following day. He has yet to make any pronouncement on the attack, leaving it to his former army chief-of-staff to vow swift retaliation.

His unproven whereabouts became the subject of rumor, with rebels saying he had left the capital for the coast.

One Western diplomat says it is understood that after the attack the Syrian president called the head of a U.N. peace monitor team, General Robert Mood, promising to implement a U.N. peace plan if the West could get rebels to stop their attacks. Mood and U.N. envoy Kofi Annan were not available to comment.

The authorities promised the rebels they would strike back hard, saying they would "cut off every hand that harms the security of the homeland".

Syrian troops began turning their anti-aircraft guns on rebels in residential areas pointing the barrels at buildings instead of skywards. Helicopters and artillery fired on Damascus throughout the day.

Blasts also rocked an area close to the base of a feared military unit led by Assad's brother, Maher, while a police station in the Hajar al-Aswad district went up in flames.

Syrian Information Minister Omran Zoabi called the battle for Damascus "the decisive battle in all of Syria" - a comment echoed by Sergei Lavrov, the foreign minister of Russia, Assad's main protector on the world stage.

For the first time, state TV showed government troops exchanging fire with rebels in central Damascus.

"This is the volcano we talked about, we have just started," said Saadeddine, the FSA spokesman.

PAYBACK

On day five, helicopter gunships pounded rebel positions. Artillery batteries nestled in the mountains overlooking Damascus rained down shells on two city districts.

Rebels torched and looted the Damascus Province Police headquarters, a huge building. Residents spoke of corpses in the streets.

Scared to venture out, many residents said they had locked themselves inside their own homes for their own safety, while most shopkeepers shuttered their businesses.

Ordinary citizens appeared to have deserted the city's once bustling streets. "Everyone in the neighborhood is arming themselves," said one resident near the Midan district.

"Some with machineguns, some with shotguns. Some even just with knives," the resident added. Fighting flared near the Syrian government's headquarters - a vast Soviet-style building as well as near the prime minister's office.

Far from Damascus, rebels seized border checkpoints with Turkey and Iraq, the first time they had held control of Syrian frontiers.

On Friday, the sixth day of the rebels' attempt to "liberate" Damascus and the first day of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, the insurgents suffered a setback.

Under heavy bombardment, they were forced to withdraw from the central district of Midan.

"It is a tactical withdrawal. We are still in Damascus," Abu Omar, a rebel commander, said by telephone.

Elsewhere in the city, rebels set fire to a military barracks after a two-day siege. Opposition sources said the building had been used as a training ground for feared shabbiha militiamen loyal to Assad.

In a further sign that the authorities' control was becoming increasingly tenuous, U.N. officials said they had heard reports that the city's banks were running out of money.

State TV showed the bodies of about 20 men in T-shirts and jeans with weapons lying at their sides. It described them as members of the "so-called Free Army" killed in battle.

Trying to show that the authorities were still in control, state TV also broadcast live footage of central roads and districts. But the traffic of the cramped Middle Eastern city was missing; only a few cars were moving along its boulevards.

As the temperature rose to above 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit), power in many parts of the capital remained cut off, compounding people's misery.

Many residents have already fled, with tens of thousands of people reported to be pouring into neighboring Lebanon.

At the hilly Masnaa border crossing on the Lebanese side, Damascenes, many of them wealthy families driving their own air-conditioned cars, could be spotted making their way past border control.

The FSA still may need more defections from the army to gain the expertise and weaponry to achieve final victory.

President Barack Obama's administration has been drawing up contingency plans for if and when Assad falls. The New York Times said Washington was talking to Israel about the possibility of securing Assad's chemical weapons - one of the largest stockpiles of its kind in the world.

Like a wounded lion, Assad could still mount a robust response to the rebels' most audacious attack on his powerbase.

(Reporting by Samia Nakhoul, Dominic Evans, Oliver Holmes, Erika Solomon and Mariam Karouny in Beirut, Suleiman Al-Khalidi in Cilvegozu, Turkey, Saad Shalash near Qaim, Iraq, Khaled Yacoub Oweis in Amman, Steve Gutterman in Moscow and Stephanie Nebehay in Geneva; Editing by Peter Graff)

[shyamd]

Iranian response at the moment is to deepen ties with AQ, AQAP in Yemen, fund the zaidi's/Houthi's and get them to hit KSA and Western targets in Yemen. Iran has asked Hezbollah and AQ to carry out attacks against western and GCC flagged ships in red sea and persian gulf. So this could have contributed to the tragic events a few days ago.

Egyptian intel chief has warned his counterpart that anything like this will have disastrous consequences.

So, Iran is now going to go all out against west and GCC.

Right now, the DUP in Syrian Kurdistan is backing Asad regime. So Washington adn Ankara appealed to KRG leader Barzani. Barzani agreed to help and closed down a DUP training camp and is said to be paying $400 for fighters to take on the DUP Kurdish leadership in Syria. Triggering a Kurdish civil war. Barzani wants an autonomous region for Kurds in Syria and they all think that by going to war against their kurdish brethren - Asad's downfall is the only way to create an autonomous region.

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With MB coming to power, Riyadh now wants to replace Egypt with Jordan as their biggest arab ally.

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A lot of moves going on in the AlSaud family, as current CP is in early stage alzheimer's. KingA is in bad shape too, he wasn't in work for the last week. So the next gen are being asked to step up

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Don't know how many of you saw William Hague's speech after the UN veto by Rus/PRC. He revealed that he was hoping for Rus PRC to support sanctions and veto mil action. Which I found quite interesting. WHague is the man who authorises covert action etc. He said this is the final 30 days for the UN mandate.

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Donilon is telling everyone in the region to stop causing trouble and STFU until Obama gets re-elected. Obviously this wont make any difference.
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[RajeshA]

KingA is in bad shape too, he wasn't in work for the last week. So the next gen are being asked to step up

Abdullah needs a Yoga trainer, an Ayurveda nutrition expert, a Meditation Guru, and a Masseur from Pakistan!

Sorry couldn't help it!

[shyamd]

^^ Crisis time for them... So the best and the brightest are being called in - Notice Prince Bandar was appointed as head of GIP. He is close to TSP, Washington and negotiated Egyptian troops to come to KSA aid and also agreement with Turkey/TSP to launch attacks against Iran in the event of crisis.
Can you imagine going to war without a leader at the top?! They better sort their affairs out quickly.
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My post above gives you an indication of the increased tensions that the region is facing. Kurdish civil war possibly, Mahdi army is going to be called in to conduct raids to clear up the roads that FSA just seized on the Iraq Syria border. Iran is calling up all its allies and saying start hitting Western and Gulf shipping!! So its no surprise that we had that tragic incident the other day!

Things are getting very messy!!

The GCC see this as another Afghanistan. Money - close to $1billion annually was provided to finance the Taliban. They can just continue this until eventually Asad gives up.

[RajeshA]

shyamd ji,

can't they buy off DUP in Syrian Kurdistan? Can't they make a deal? Why do they need to fight it out?

[shyamd]

Sir,
2 parties supporting asad - PKK and DUP. Efforts have been under way to resolve this issue for a few months now. They'll find a way. Turkey and US GCC pushing for the dual track - talking and using the stick.

---------------------------------

Iranian response at the moment is to deepen ties with AQ, AQAP in Yemen, fund the zaidi's/Houthi's and get them to hit KSA and Western targets in Yemen. Iran has asked Hezbollah and AQ to carry out attacks against western and GCC flagged ships in red sea and persian gulf. So this could have contributed to the tragic events a few days ago.

Egyptian intel chief has warned his counterpart that anything like this will have disastrous consequences.

So, Iran is now going to go all out against west and GCC.

Right now, the DUP in Syrian Kurdistan is backing Asad regime. So Washington adn Ankara appealed to KRG leader Barzani. Barzani agreed to help and closed down a DUP training camp and is said to be paying $400 for fighters to take on the DUP Kurdish leadership in Syria. Triggering a Kurdish civil war. Barzani wants an autonomous region for Kurds in Syria and they all think that by going to war against their kurdish brethren - Asad's downfall is the only way to create an autonomous region.

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With MB coming to power, Riyadh now wants to replace Egypt with Jordan as their biggest arab ally.

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A lot of moves going on in the AlSaud family, as current CP is in early stage alzheimer's. KingA is in bad shape too, he wasn't in work for the last week. So the next gen are being asked to step up

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Don't know how many of you saw William Hague's speech after the UN veto by Rus/PRC. He revealed that he was hoping for Rus PRC to support sanctions and veto mil action. Which I found quite interesting. WHague is the man who authorises covert action etc. He said this is the final 30 days for the UN mandate.

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Donilon is telling everyone in the region to stop causing trouble and STFU until Obama gets re-elected. Obviously this wont make any difference.
--------------------------------------

[shyamd]

19th June 2012

US is providing intel support and communications, training certain rebels to safeguard chemical weapons. Israel will probably be interested to protect themselves from the chemical weapons.

KASOTC in Jordan - I think CIA is training the rebels here.

Basically these Daily Telegraph articles have come straight out of the GCC/Turk/NATO/FSA command centre - pure psy ops. Standard wartime operations. No one knows where the command centre is - Iranians say the psyop division is coming from Beirut. My source says GCC was providing through turkey. But it could be the psyop div is from Beirut (wonder why there because its dangerous and accessible to asad spies, so my intuition says the psyop unit is based in Turkey).

My usual Iranian source hasn't said anything since march.

With the release of this article it means that the FSA is ready and they are signalling to Asad that they will seize his chemical weapons if things get out of hand.

Rebels forming unit to secure chemical weapons site

The opposition Free Syrian Army is creating a special unit of men trained to secure Syria's chemical weapons sites, a former general in the country's chemical and biological weapons administration has told the Daily Telegraph.
Rebels forming unit to secure chemical weapons site
Demonstrators take part in a protest against Syria's President Bashar al-Assad in Sermeen Photo: REUTERS

By Ruth Sherlock, in Beirut

5:29PM BST 20 Jul 2012

“We have a group just to deal with chemical weapons. They are already trained to secure sites,” said Gen Adnan Silou, the most senior ranking member of Bashar al-Assad’s regime to defect and join the FSA.

Until 2008 Gen Silou was charged with the task of drafting emergency response plans should any of Syria’s terrifying array of weapons fall out of the government’s control.

Working around Damascus and Latakia he trained thousands of troops in how to secure what analysts believe are the largest chemical weapons stores in the world, consisting principally of sarin, mustard gas and cyanide.

“We trained them in securing stores, in reconnaissance of possible threats, in how to purge supplies and in treatment should Syria come under attack a chemical or biological attack,” said Silou.

“There were two main stores — warehouse 417 in east Damascus, and another, number 419 in Homs area. We had 1,500 soldiers and two or three generals stationed at each base,” he said.

As the Syrian regime’s iron-fist rule begins to unravel the question of how to maintain the security of these sites has become of central concern to Syrians and foreign governments alike.

The Daily Telegraph was told that British military intelligence chiefs believe that the Assad regime could yet deploy some of the stores in a desperate attempt to regain power.

Gen Silou agrees with the disturbing assessment. In his decades of service to the regime Silou said that he met President Bashar al-Assad and members of his inner circle ‘countless times’.

“I know Bashar al-Assad’s character. It is very possible that he will use the chemical weapons against his own people,” said Gen Silou. “They can deploy them from tanks, from rockets, and from helicopters”.

Gen Silou decided to come out of his retirement and join the FSA leadership in Turkey when the government attacked Homs in February. In addition to the barrages of artillery fired from tanks, the attack increased his concern that Mr Assad could deploy chemical weapons in the future. He is convinced that the regime sprayed pesticides from planes on population areas in Rastan, a hub for the rebel Free Syrian Army close to Homs.

The claims cannot be independently confirmed, but in February and March patients seen by the Daily Telegraph who had led Rasatn and Homs for Lebanon showed signs of hair loss, skin irritation, chronic muscle pain and sickness. Doctors in Lebanon treating Syrian patients from Rastan and Homs who had fled the country reported seeing unusual symptoms.

There are also serious fears that as the security structure in the country unravels these lethal weapons could fall out of government control and into the hands of militia groups, including radical Islamic units that might try to deploy them.

“We are now scanning all Syrian military defectors for people with training on chemical weapons,” said Louay al-Mokdad, an oppositoni activist. “We are putting them in one unit that can work to secure the sites.”

“The weapons used to be to protect Syria. Now they are just to protect Bashar,” said Gen Silou.

AQ islamists are operating out of the control of the FSA increasingly. They are doing their own thing now.

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He has 2 choices - Fight for an alawite homeland or leave

Russian envoy to France says Moscow believes Syria’s Assad ready to step down

State TV and the russians issued immediate denials. They have this guy on tape saying that and the BBC team in Moscow also got the same briefing and then denials!

Asad knows he is on his way out but wants to leave with some honour.

[shyamd]

British flotillas prepared for Syria evacuation
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... ation.html

The navy is preparing contingency plans for a mass evacuation of British citizens from Syria and neighbouring countries, as growing violence has caused tens of thousands to flee major cities.
HMS Illustrious
The flotilla from the The Response Force Task Group will include the helicopter carrier HMS Illustrious Photo: ROYAL NAVY
Thomas Harding

By Thomas Harding, Defence Correspondent

8:15AM BST 21 Jul 2012

Comments179 Comments

A substantial Navy task force will deploy to the eastern Mediterranean for large scale exercises after the Olympics but will have the capability to help civilians fleeing the growing violence.

The flotilla from the The Response Force Task Group will include the helicopter carrier HMS Illustrious and the amphibious ship HMS Bulwark ferrying 45 Commando, Royal Marines.

The force will carry out amphibious landings in Sardinia, Albania and Turkey then is likely to “loiter” off Cyprus, 100 miles from the Syria mainland.

Navy planners said the fleet was a precautionary measure to evacuate British passport holders from across the Middle East.

“It’s very, very possible if it goes pear-shaped with floods of refugees then we have a responsibility to look after our people out there,” senior Navy commander said.

A Ministry of Defence source said: “There is no question at this stage of a combat role, our aim is purely to consider contingency plans to evacuate British nationals if there are ‘proxy conflicts’ in the Lebanon and Jordan.

“The worst case scenario would be terrorist attacks in Lebanon and Jordan if the Syrian government seeks to de-stabilise the entire region.”

It is understood that special forces and diplomats have been in the region assessing the number of British passports holders who have fled across the border from Syria into the Lebanon and Jordan and drawing up evacuation plans. More than 30,000 people have fled into Lebanon alone in the past two days, according to the United Nations.

Senior officers have been briefed that there will be no direct intervention in Syria but there is a strong possibility of “re-deployment”.

The fleet will be the biggest since the HMS Ocean led attacks on Libya last year. Illustrious will carry Apache attack helicopters from 656 Squadron, Army Air Corps, veterans of the mission against Col Muammar Gaddafi’s forces last year.

The latest Type 45 destroyer HMS Defender will provide air defence particularly against Syria’s anti-ship cruise missiles.

The fleet will more than double in firepower when it is joined by the French carrier Charles de Gaulle, equipped with a strike force of Rafale fighters and escort ships.

A Royal Navy spokesman said: “The Response Force Task Group was established as a high readiness, multi-faceted maritime capability to respond to crisis events around the world."

NATO is ready to roll.... First steps of intervention underway...

[Pranav]

Syria updates -

Putin Warns Against Bypassing Security Council Syria Veto - http://en.ria.ru/russia/20120720/174704600.html

There are 20,000 Russians in Syria, no evacuation plan - http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/334 ... -in-Syria-

Damascus appears to have been cleared - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... -life.html

If the mood of the soldiers driving through downtown Damascus yesterday was anything to go by, the capital was no longer in danger. Cheering from the top of a procession of flatbed trucks, the troops were celebrating their overnight victory over the audacious rebel forces who had held the suburb of Midan since Thursday.

Yet despite the euphoria, there soon came a quick reminder that things remain as tense as ever. Not long after our cameraman began filming the happy scenes, a secret policeman appeared and ordered him to delete his footage.

Thus did the Syrian regime show its usual deft handling of public affairs: even scenes that show its own soldiers winning can attract the censor's hand.

"Free Syrian Army" Fails to seize Crossing on Jordan Border - http://www3.almanar.com.lb/english/adet ... &fromval=1

Hezbollah Chief Hassan Nasrallah makes an important statement - http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/20/world ... -ally.html

On Wednesday, Hezbollah quickly responded to the government’s worst day so far to make its strongest declaration that it would not abandon Mr. Assad.

In a televised address on Wednesday night, the Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, offered eloquent condolences for the deaths of the three high-ranking Syrian officials killed earlier in the day. “These martyr leaders were comrades in arms in the conflict with the Israeli enemy, and we are confident that the Arab Syrian Army, which overcame the unbearable, will be able to persist and crush the hopes of the enemies,” he said.

He credited Mr. Assad and his government with the victory that Hezbollah claimed against Israel in the 2006 war in Lebanon and with saving Gaza during the 2009 Israeli incursion. “The most valuable weapons we had in our possession were from Syria,” he said. “The missiles we used in the second Lebanon war were made in Syria. And it’s not only in Lebanon but in Gaza as well. Where did these missiles come from? The Saudi regime? The Egyptian regime? These missiles are from Syria.”

It was a stunning testament, said Fawaz A. Gerges, director of the Middle East Center at the London School of Economics. “For Hezbollah, it is a point of no return now,” he said. With the speech, “Hezbollah made it very clear that there is an umbilical cord between the Syrian regime and Hezbollah, and this umbilical cord is existential. They are, as he said, comrades in arms.”

Robert Fisk: FSA fighters are on drugs, literally - http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/co ... 64251.html

Classic hallmark of western operations in the Middle East: Islamic fighters flocking to Syria - http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/wor ... le4432160/

FSA cuts off arms and legs of Syrian Army colonel on Iraq border - http://www.rnw.nl/english/bulletin/syri ... official-0

The top official said Iraqi border guards had witnessed the Free Syrian Army take control of a border outpost, detain a Syrian army lieutenant colonel, and then cut off his arms and legs.

"Then they executed 22 Syrian soldiers in front of the eyes of Iraqi soldiers."

U.S. increases Syrian rebel aid - http://www.sfgate.com/world/article/U-S ... 725363.php

Sunnis dread the FSA - http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/mid ... ory_1.html

... there was criticism of the rebels, even from Syrians who are Sunni, the sect that makes up the bulk of the opposition.

“We fear the Free Syrian Army more than the government,” said one woman who was traveling with her daughter. “They are the gangs and the ones creating the problems.”

Syrian scientist survives assassination attempt - http://en.trend.az/regions/met/arabicr/ ... #popupInfo

Zogheib was driving with his family in the Bab Touma neighborhood of Damascus when his car came under attack, Arabic language websites reported on Saturday.

He escaped the assassination attempt unharmed but sources said that one of his children was seriously injured.

[Pranav]

It would be interesting to find out what kind of drugs western agencies are supplying to the Islamist fighters streaming into Syria from across the middle-east.

The tradition of using drugs to induce suicidal bravado is of course an ancient one, dating back to the cult of the Hashashins.

[Johann]

Robert Fisk: FSA fighters are on drugs, literally - http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/co ... 64251.html

Pranav, I'm surprised you didn't use the original title;

Sectarianism bites into Syria's rebels: The deathwish of fighters in Damascus terrifies many who oppose Assad

A few quotes might have been helpful as well;

The visitor was taken upstairs and introduced himself. "I was sent to you by the shebab," he said – shebab might be translated as "the youth" or "the guys" and it meant he worked for the armed Syrian opposition – "and we need your help."

His story was as revealing as it was frightening. Damascus was about to be attacked. But the fighters were out of control. There were drug addicts among them. "Some of our people are on drugs," the visitor said. "They will take anyone out. We can't guarantee what some of these men will do. If they went into Malki [a mixed, middle-class area of central Damascus], we couldn't protect any of the people who live there. We are against the Salafists who are fighting – there are good Syrians, Druze and Ishmaeilis [Alawites] who are with us.

despite the dictatorship and its secret police apparatus, corruption was the glue that held the regime together.

Northern Syria, for example, has always been a vast smuggling zone, a place where every man in almost every family owned a rifle – this was one reason why the Assads always appointed tough former military men as provincial governors in the Aleppo region – and goods flowed from Turkey through Syria to Jordan and the Gulf. But once Syria's economy began to slide, the mutual corruption of state and banditry, and between a minority Alawite-led regime and its favourites in the Christian and majority Sunni communities, meant that the glue began to melt.

If this initially took the form of unarmed demonstrations across the country – provoked by the torture and murder of a 13-year-old boy by secret policemen in Deraa in March last year – armed men did appear rapidly on the streets of some towns. There is video footage of gunmen on the streets of Deraa that same month and al-Jazeera footage of armed men fighting Syrian troops just across the northern border of Lebanon in April 2011. Mysteriously, al-Jazeera chose not to broadcast it.

[Pranav]

Pranav, I'm surprised you didn't use the original title;

The text in bold, for that link and many of the others, is just a summary of an excerpt of interest.

[Pranav]

FSA issues ultimatum to Christians from mosque minarets: Leave town within 6 days - http://vaticaninsider.lastampa.it/en/ho ... ria-15868/

[shyamd]

FSA's big problem are the extremists who have started to do their own thing and are operating increasingly without the coordination of the FSA.

Iraqis who crossed the border Back into Iraq said they received abuse for being Shia from the FSA

There have been 7 Hezbollah fighters killed as of 2 weeks ago, some of the bodies were mutilated.

[Austin]

There are 20,000 Russians in Syria, no evacuation plan - http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/334 ... -in-Syria-

From what I have read before the number of Russians in Syria is about 100,000 and not twenty thousand ....evacuating so many citizen is not a small task , though they have a small naval facility there but that that is manned by less than 1000 russians.

[shyamd]

^^ NYT quoted russian officials as saying around 30k citizens.

------------------------
All this is bound to happen - no movement on the Syria front. As deaths increase and Obama is telling everyone to keep quiet and STFU, things spiralling out of control, now Obama is gettng criticized for doing very little... So now Obama has 2 choices - make the covert efforts known in the public to improve his rating and do something drastic like authorise military action in a joint manner to seize assets.

Stymied at U.N., U.S. Refines Plan to Remove Assad

By ERIC SCHMITT and HELENE COOPER

WASHINGTON — The Obama administration has for now abandoned efforts for a diplomatic settlement to the conflict in Syria, and instead it is increasing aid to the rebels and redoubling efforts to rally a coalition of like-minded countries to forcibly bring down the government of President Bashar al-Assad, American officials say.

Administration officials have been in talks with officials in Turkey and Israel over how to manage a Syrian government collapse. Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta is headed to Israel in the next several days to meet with Israeli defense counterparts, following up on a visit last week by President Obama’s national security adviser Thomas E. Donilon, in part to discuss the Syrian crisis.

The White House is now holding daily high-level meetings to discuss a broad range of contingency plans — including safeguarding Syria’s vast chemical weapons arsenal and sending explicit warnings to both warring sides to avert mass atrocities — in a sign of the escalating seriousness of the Syrian crisis following a week of intensified fighting in Damascus, the capital, and the killing of Mr. Assad’s key security aides in a bombing attack.

The administration has had regular talks with the Israelis about how Israel might move to destroy Syrian weapons facilities, administration officials said. The administration is not advocating such an attack, the officials said, because of the risk that it would give Mr. Assad an opportunity to rally support against Israeli interference.

Administration officials insist they will not provide arms to the rebel forces. Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are already financing those efforts. But American officials said that the United States would provide more communications training and equipment to help improve the combat effectiveness of disparate opposition forces in their widening, sustained fight against Syrian Army troops. It’s also possible the rebels would receive some intelligence support, the officials said.

By enhancing the command-and-control of the rebel formations, largely by improving their ability to communicate with one another and their superiors and to coordinate combat operations, American officials say they are seeking to build on and fuel the momentum of the rebels’ recent battlefield successes.

“You’ll notice in the last couple of months, the opposition has been strengthened,” a senior Obama administration official said Friday. “Now we’re ready to accelerate that.” The official said that the hope was that support for the Syrian opposition from the United States, Arab governments and Turkey would tip the balance in the conflict.

Senior administration officials say the changes are in response to a series of setbacks at the United Nations Security Council, where Russia has staunchly refused to engineer the removal of Mr. Assad, as well as the turmoil that has left the Syrian government reeling, at least for the moment.

“We’re looking at the controlled demolition of the Assad regime,” said Andrew J. Tabler, a Syria expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “But like any controlled demolition, anything can go wrong.”

Mr. Obama has come under criticism from some Republican hawks, who say that the United States should intervene militarily in Syria, and from the Republican presidential aspirant Mitt Romney, who has said that he would arm the Syrian opposition — a course which the administration has not taken.

Instead, Mr. Obama had been backing United Nations efforts, and had been pushing Russia to join the United States in calling for Mr. Assad to step down from power. But Russia and China on Thursday blocked tougher United Nations action in the Security Council. This prompted Susan E. Rice, the American ambassador to the United Nations, to say that the Security Council had “utterly failed” Syria and to pledge that the United States will now instead work “with a diverse range of partners outside the Security Council” to pressure the Assad government.

Administration officials said the United States is also working with Syrian rebels to establish a transition process for the day that Mr. Assad’s government falls, including trying to set up a provisional government that would include representatives from opposing Sects — Alawites, Sunnis and Christians. “We need to make sure that what comes next has Alawite representation,” one administration official said Saturday.

Outreach to the Alawite community is crucial if the Syrian state is to remain intact after Mr. Assad is gone, administration officials and foreign policy experts said. And it may be necessary to hasten Mr. Assad’s exit. “The much more urgent challenge,” said Martin S. Indyk, the former United States ambassador to Israel, “is to make contact with Assad’s generals to get them to defect with units intact.”

But as last week’s unexpected turn of events indicate, planning for the end of the Assad government, which administration officials insist will happen without saying precisely when, is virtually impossible. “What is the end? That’s the dilemma,” said one senior defense official. “No one knows what the end is. So it’s all about mitigating the risks.”

And the risks are legion.

The escalating violence has so far sent as many as 125,000 people fleeing across Syria’s border into neighboring Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey and Iraq, according to the State Department. American officials are expressing fears that the implosion of the government could lead to a breakup of Syria, with Mr. Assad’s minority Alawite sect retreating to coastal mountain redoubts still armed with their chemical weapons.

“It’s an outcome that contains the seeds of a war that never ends,” said Robert Malley, Middle East and North Africa program director at the International Crisis Group. “The rest of Syria won’t accept having part of their territory under the control of the people who’ve been oppressing them.”

This month, Syria started moving parts of its huge stockpile of chemical weapons out of storage, drawing stern warnings from American officials not to use them or face unstated consequences. Some American intelligence officials said later that the movements were most likely a precaution as security conditions across the country rapidly deteriorated.

“It’s going to take an international effort when Assad falls — and he will fall — in order to secure these weapons,” Adm. William H. McRaven, the head of the military’s Special Operations forces, told Congress in March.

American and other Western intelligence officials have expressed concern that some of the more than 100 rebel formations fighting inside Syria may have ties to Al Qaeda that they could exploit as security worsens in the country or after the collapse of the government.

“If the Assad regime did fall, this would provide more Islamist militants with a potential opportunity to establish a new foothold in the heart of the Middle East,” said Charles Lister, an analyst with Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Center. “The temporary lack of state structures would also afford aspirant militant Islamists with a safe area for training.”

A small number of C.I.A. officers have been operating secretly in southern Turkey for several weeks, helping allies decide which Syrian opposition fighters across the border will receive weapons to fight the government.

The C.I.A. effort is aimed in part to help keep weapons out of the hands of fighters allied with Al Qaeda or other terrorist groups, one senior American official said. By helping to vet rebel groups, American intelligence operatives in Turkey also hope to learn more about a growing, changing opposition network inside of Syria and to establish new ties to fighters who may be the country’s leaders one day.

American diplomats are also meeting regularly with representatives of various Syrian opposition groups outside the country to help map out a possible post-Assad government.

“Our focus with the opposition is on working with them so that they have a political transition in place to stand up a new Syria,” Patrick Ventrell, a State Department spokesman, said last week.

[habal]

basically looks like the commencement of the third world war by the forces of Gog and magog.

[brihaspati]

In the end, western control over teh Islamist forces unleashed in ME will not be sustainable. At the moment west thinks it can, but the mullahs are equally adept at survival and deception. At the moment west thinks it is using Islamists, while the Islamist leadership is deliberately allowing the west to think so. This is to their advantage.

The more west supports its overall targets, the Islamist leadership is actually slowly gaining ground in strategic ontrol over the crucial valve in the east-west flow : the entire zone from Balkans, Eastern Med, North Africa, CAR, and south ME right up to borders of India and China.

However this means that US will now strengthen Israel more as a hedge against this very long-term Islamist plan. Engaging Iran in a proxy war is a good means of tackling both Russia and China. I guess this is all going good, in the direction, at least I would want - where it concerns India. The real underlying aims of the GCC gang, or their Ayatollah counterparts - and associated Islamist follower gangs, would be more openly expressed in any escalation of the current conflict. The pro-Islamist lobby within India which now covers its stance under investments/financial flow/Indian expat in west Asia arguments, will become more exposed.

In the end, this phase will lead to Islamism moving slowly and surely in its expansion plans to both against Europe as well as the surrounding predominantly non-Muslim zones of Russia, China and India. India and East Europe has already been sufficiently subverted to target before Rus or China though. The quicker the better.

[Surya]

watching the hundreds of video clips from libya and now Syria - the one constant thing is the AOA chant.

then you watch as the expertise for IEDs and other irregula warfare spreads and you can only imagine what this will lead to.

just like the retards spilt over from Afghanisthan into J&K courtesy the Pukies, this is going to spillover in unpredicatable ways.

meanwhile my dreams of visiting Aleppo and Damsacus are over in this lifetime

FSA's big problem are the extremists who have started to do their own thing and are operating increasingly without the coordination of the FSA.

Iraqis who crossed the border Back into Iraq said they received abuse for being Shia from the FSA

You mean the super intel folks from the GCC\turkey and all others meddling in Syria did not anticipate this??

[JE Menon]

>>In the end, western control over teh Islamist forces unleashed in ME will not be sustainable.

Fully agree.

>>meanwhile my dreams of visiting Aleppo and Damsacus are over in this lifetime

Yes, I will miss Cham (Damascus)... It was a wonderful, lively, place with intelligent, refined and educated locals. Things were improving steadily after Bashar took over. I visited yearly since about 2006 until last year. I recognise some of the neighbourhoods. And Aleppo and Homs were nice too, but I preferred the very laid back environment in the latter. Both seem to be in tatters now. Shame.

I understand its Matsyanyaya and all that, but sometimes you feel it.

[Rony]

Did any one pick this up ? Iran's propaganda machinery - Press TV is reporting that

Blast hits Saudi intelligence building, killing deputy spy chief

A blast has hit the builing of Saudi intelligence service in Riyadh, killing deputy of the newly-appointed intelligence chief Prince Bandar bin Sultan, according to reports.

The explosion took place on Sunday when Bin Sultan’s deputy was entering the building, Yemen's al-Fajr Press quoted eyewitnesses as saying.

Saudi media have so far refrained from showing any reaction to the blast.

[Pranav]

>>meanwhile my dreams of visiting Aleppo and Damsacus are over in this lifetime

Yes, I will miss Cham (Damascus)... It was a wonderful, lively, place with intelligent, refined and educated locals. Things were improving steadily after Bashar took over. I visited yearly since about 2006 until last year. I recognise some of the neighbourhoods. And Aleppo and Homs were nice too, but I preferred the very laid back environment in the latter. Both seem to be in tatters now. Shame.

I understand its Matsyanyaya and all that, but sometimes you feel it.

These people retain the memories of their Byzantine history ... a sophisticated civilization.

[brihaspati]

Pranav ji,
the Byzantines were as bloody as they were sophisticated. They were the key in producing the most intolerant versions of political Christianism, including the virulent iconoclastic sects that possiby influenced the founders of Islam. Their history was equally if not less crooked in producing the memes of intolerant violence that reigns there now - conpared to the Italian brethren.

The sophistication of culture has long gone. Everywhere we are repeatedly making the mistake of modelling the entire society and its long term political drive by looking at the vocal minorities aired in "liberal" or "English language" literate media. These reflect small cocooned section in the urban areas, propped up due to cold war calculations by the west or Russia dependeing on the context - as a means of social control. now those needs gone, they are being revealed to what they were - paper tigers, deliberately disjointed from their society's real institutional infrastructure to keep them dependent on outside interests.

To prevent "communistic" contagion in the masses, the mullahcracy was carefull maintained by the west - and hence the real social power developed in mullahcracy hands. The world is reaping the benefits of that divinely inspired policy.

[JE Menon]

>>the Byzantines were as bloody as they were sophisticated.

Indeed. One only needs to read the background of Constantine, and what his successors did to the indigenous faith system in Greece (among other places)...

[shyamd]

watching the hundreds of video clips from libya and now Syria - the one constant thing is the AOA chant. [\quote]
Are you surprised that people invoke God when they are fighting?

You mean the super intel folks from the GCC\turkey and all others meddling in Syria did not anticipate this??

Manageable problem in their eyes. Main aim is downfall of Asad, everything else after and eventually if they carry on their ways, obviously someone will deal with them.

[chaanakya]

Did any one pick this up ? Iran's propaganda machinery - Press TV is reporting that

Blast hits Saudi intelligence building, killing deputy spy chief

A blast has hit the builing of Saudi intelligence service in Riyadh, killing deputy of the newly-appointed intelligence chief Prince Bandar bin Sultan, according to reports.

The explosion took place on Sunday when Bin Sultan’s deputy was entering the building, Yemen's al-Fajr Press quoted eyewitnesses as saying.

Saudi media have so far refrained from showing any reaction to the blast.

Reuters carried this story on 20th July

The United States' closest Arab ally is a firm supporter of the Syrian rebels now battling in Damascus to oust President Bashar al-Assad and is mending fences with Washington after a disagreement over last year's Arab uprisings.

"Bandar is quite aggressive, not at all like a typical cautious Saudi diplomat. If the aim is to bring Bashar down quick and fast, he will have a free hand to do what he thinks necessary. He likes to receive an order and implement it as he sees fit," said Jamal Khashoggi, an influential Saudi commentator.

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal has described arming the rebels as "a very good idea". Saudi Arabia and Qatar are believed to be funding and sending weapons to the Syrian insurgents, Arab officials say.

As Syria's crisis enters a potentially decisive stage in the aftermath of Thursday's assassination of top security chiefs in a bomb blast, Riyadh's princely rulers are concerned about blowback from Assad's allies in Iran.

With Syria in flames, Iraq still weak and Egypt navigating an uncertain transition towards democracy, Saudi Arabia now stands alone as the Arab world's most stable major nation.

Ottaway said Bandar had previously negotiated with both Syria and Iran, as well as with Russia, a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council that has vetoed resolutions against the Assad government written by Riyadh.

"He wants to see Saudi Arabia flex its muscles, particularly if the Americans are there with him," he added.

[chanakyaa]

Brihaspatiji,

In the end, western control over teh Islamist forces unleashed in ME will not be sustainable. At the moment west thinks it can, but the mullahs are equally adept at survival and deception. At the moment west thinks it is using Islamists, while the Islamist leadership is deliberately allowing the west to think so. This is to their advantage.
.....

Respect the post and apologies in adv if misunderstood the view, but, are you saying that moolahs are so smart that they are allowing the west to control them? Come on. US/UK/Yahudi master plan of using moolahs against each other using their own money/resources to create civil war around them is hardly an evidence of powerful islamist brain. Where is the evidence of US policy of passive colonization, in sharp contrast to Bristish active colonization, to be any failure? Isn't the situation in iraq, afg, libya, sudan is going exactly as they planned?

[Johann]

just like the retards spilt over from Afghanisthan into J&K courtesy the Pukies, this is going to spillover in unpredicatable ways.

Lebanon, Iraq and Jordan are the one who have the most to worry, in that order.

meanwhile my dreams of visiting Aleppo and Damsacus are over in this lifetime

Unless you're 85+, its not quite that dire.

The attitude and resources of people in Syria and Lebanon are really not that different. Lebanon had a large, wealthy diaspora. They, along with the Gulf financed much of Lebanon's reconstruction, while Iran paid of the Shia areas.

Afghanistan had a relatively small and not particularly rich diaspora. The Gulfies have only supported jihad there, never development.

The dust is going to settle in Syria, and business will come first.

Syria also has a large, well to do diaspora, and both the Gulf and the Turks very much want Syria back in good shape. Both of them were funneling large and growing investment and trade into Syria until the Arab Spring blew up.

The Syrian population is also much better educated than the Iraqis, and less tribal. Its going to bounce back much faster than Iraq did.

[chanakyaa]

Yankee, Angles, Yahudi world order. check out the article below...bit of exaggeration by pointing source of all problems on one clan but the gist of the article is mind blowing. If you wish to comment, hope u read the entire article..

http://rense.com/general88/hist.htm