Syrian Resistance : Strategy and long term implications.

[Philip]

Rebels on the run. Good frontline piece about Hilary-the-Klingon's bum chums!

Rebel strategy.
Quote:“They were full of talk about their experience in Iraq and Afghanistan; bombmaking and IDs [IEDs] but at the end, nothing.”

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 26802.html

Special report: Hundreds of rebel fighters leave Aleppo after relentless shelling by regime forces
Revolutionaries abandon the frontline they had held with such resilience for the last 12 days.

[shyamd]

FSA says it shoots down Mig 23 jet. Syrian news agency says downed due to technical failure.

[Aditya_V]

If assad is smart he should not let the rebels escape but kill many of them, but if they get to Turkey I see them regrouping and attaking.

[Johann]

If assad is smart he should not let the rebels escape but kill many of them, but if they get to Turkey I see them regrouping and attaking.

He just doesn't have the forces to control the border or the countryside.

The rebels are fighting as guerrillas, which means they will withdraw the moment the odds turn against them rather than stay in place and be destroyed.

[shyamd]

Video of plane getting shot down

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... r-jet.html

Can any guru confirm if it looks like it was shot down by SAM or technical problem with Engine catching fire?

[shyamd]

Al Assad has told the Russians he is willing to resign. Maher Al Assad lost his legs in the crisis cell explosion.

[brihaspati]

I don't have a direct hotline to the rebels in Aleppo or to the Russians [or to Gulf intel super-kings who know everything that goes on in the world minus such worthless advance info as on sacking of Tantawi] - but lets just say, things are not all rose and peaches for the Gulf-Sunni jihad at this moment in Syria. Take such news with a pinch of salt as part of psy-ops from the usual suspects.

[KrishnaK]

Take it with a pinch of salt and do what ? It's not like anybody here can influence anything. predictions/info put here by people can be measured up against how reality shapes up. the obsession with psyops here is reaching paki levels.

[eklavya]

Al Assad has told the Russians he is willing to resign. Maher Al Assad lost his legs in the crisis cell explosion.

Why don't you ever post the source link with the headlines? This news item is from 9:46am GMT on Aug 14.

http://www.albawaba.com/main-headlines/ ... egs-438285

[shyamd]

Because I was told verbally.

-----------------
Blast reported in Damascus - close to Air force HQ. they are targeting asads eyes

[eklavya]

Because I was told verbally.

So you thought you were posting "intelligence" when in fact you were posting publicly available information. A less charitable person than me may be inclined to think that either you and/or your "sources" are bluffers: trying to create the misleading impression of having privileged access to information.

[Lalmohan]

finally syria is starting to make sense to me. it is start of the long awaited shia-sunni war

[shyamd]

So you thought you were posting "intelligence" when in fact you were posting publicly available information. A less charitable person than me may be inclined to think that either you and/or your "sources" are bluffers: trying to create the misleading impression of having privileged access to information.

Who said it was "intelligence"? I am trying to keep this thread updated with the latest on what's happening by using minimum amount of my time. I was told that by a friend who sms'd me. If it was from one of my sources I would have said so. Do you want to monitor the wires instead and if you have the time please post articles on here and keep us updated on the latest.

Thanks

[Theo_Fidel]

finally syria is starting to make sense to me. it is start of the long awaited shia-sunni war

Lalmohan saab,

Whare have you been for the last 1400 years?

[ramana]

Lalmohan, For the Sunnis returning Syria to their fold is critical to establish their dominance.
For starters turns back colonialism which is when they lost Syria to Alawites.

BTW Syria is where US first experimented their coup strategy.

[brihaspati]

Take it with a pinch of salt and do what ? It's not like anybody here can influence anything. predictions/info put here by people can be measured up against how reality shapes up. the obsession with psyops here is reaching paki levels.

How do you propose verifying, if ever, what Assad supposedly said to the Russians 48 hours ago? Wait for a RussiLeaks? Unverifiable information which appears to be so concrete, and which will not have any direct reflection in any concrete action [ Assad may resign but he may do so without ever having told the Russians at that specific timepoint that he is ready todo so], indeed falls under potential psy-ops.

[shyamd]

In the end it was psyops, some Saudi newspaper wrote a fake interview and this spread like wildfire. Maher may still have his legs intact.

[VikramS]

In the end it was psyops, some Saudi newspaper wrote a fake interview and this spread like wildfire. Maher may still have his legs intact.

shyamd guru
I think it will help a lot if you add a few words about the source of info in the post itself.
You have been doing that in response but adding the info in the post itself would be much better. There is an obvious lack of transparency and a lot of false info which gets circulated. A few words about the source can help keep the info in perspective.

[RoyG]

In the end it was psyops, some Saudi newspaper wrote a fake interview and this spread like wildfire. Maher may still have his legs intact.

shyamd guru
I think it will help a lot if you add a few words about the source of info in the post itself.
You have been doing that in response but adding the info in the post itself would be much better. There is an obvious lack of transparency and a lot of false info which gets circulated. A few words about the source can help keep the info in perspective.

I agree. I once came across something a "source" told him, later to find it posted the day before on some blog and news site. Posting a link is fair.

[pentaiah]

At times like this and when confusion reigns you can expect deferential analysis and a 360 degree unquestionable subtle analysis by Johann.

Sir please step up to the mike and confirm that Assad has left the room!

Thanks in advance for your help

Added later

While at it sir could you please confirm from sources at site that

Prince Bandar of KSA is with 72 virgin olive oil bottle

Or
Still with 2 +70 in Riyadh and Royal salute handy?

[ramana]

Bharat Karnad in his op-ed has confirmed Bandar got his just deserts.*

Recall his wife's 'foundation' was the one funding the San Diego module of the 911 attack.

* Most likely Indian MEA confirmed to him

[shyamd]

^^ Its not true, he is very much alive. He'll probably turn up in some official photo soon.

[pentaiah]

So Elvis has not left the room?

I take Johann's word as last word.

He is infallible
Paging Johann

[brihaspati]

Bandar Bin Sultan has a habit of disappearing for long stretches of time. Most of those periods seem to coincide with hush hush moves on skullduggery front. So this particular story may take a long time to unravel. He appears to have been seen around the last summit seeing people off over the last 24 hours. Who knows everyone could be right - this could be the real one or a dummy. Or the assassinated one was the dummy and this was the real. etc. How does it matter really!

[pentaiah]

as suggested

[ramana]

I think Johann is busy in Aleppo and or Damascus for first hand understanding of what's going on.
He is truly erudite

Take it easy. Its borderline flame bait.

Suggest self deletion.

ramana

[Theo_Fidel]

Pentaiah saab,

Always welcome to join us humorless inconsequential's in the OT thread.
----------------------------------------

Meanwhile....

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-08-16/i ... po/4203350

The war in Aleppo descends into madness. I don't what Assad is waiting for. He has the armor necessary to retake Aleppo. Yes he is suffereing staggering numbers of defections but the Alawi will never leave right. Go for it.....

Al Guardian reports that the rebels have broken/are breaking siege of Homs. When they over ran the base that has been shelling them, they found less than 100 men. Assads military appears to be melting away.

[paramu]

What Assad has to look for is not really the rebel militia, but the people backing them.

[brihaspati]

Three separate states being thought of. This is my prediction based on a certain analysis of the ground situation [military+logistics+international positions] and not on any hotline or sources. At least two being seriously considered :
(a) a coastal one for the rump Alawaite faction
(b) allied Kurdish state in the north east

This may not work out fully - but this might be a line of compromise discussions.

The other prediction is, that the FSA will not be able to hold on to Syria after Assad's removal. People are getting cautious about supporting them, inspite of the claims of supplies. The major supplies are most possibly already in the hands of the jihadi portion and not the FSA. More of these supplies will be used by the uncontrolled elements than the regular FSA. So if anyone is taking power after Assad - it will not be FSA.

[devesh]

http://www.iol.co.za/news/world/syria-r ... C2E892PVv9

Syria rebels threaten to ‘join’ Qaeda

With the West still refusing to arm Syria's opposition in the bloody fight against the regime, rebels in the flashpoint northern city of Aleppo warn that they could turn to al-Qaeda for help.

“We don't want al-Qaeda here, but if nobody else helps us, we will make an alliance with them,” said Abu Ammar, a rebel commander in the central Bab al-Nasr district of Aleppo, scene of raging battles for almost a month.

“And you can bet if al-Qaeda comes here, they will brainwash the people,” he said. “If al-Qaeda enters Aleppo, the city will become their base within three months.”

Syria's opposition has frequently called on a divided and deadlocked international community to act to halt President Bashar al-Assad's campaign of repression against a peaceful uprising that is now an armed insurgency.

It is pushing for the establishment of a no-fly zone similar to the one the United Nations authorised for Libya last year, or the channelling of weapons to the poorly equipped rebel Free Syrian Army.

But the FSA remains massively outweighed by the regular army.

“May God help us because it is impossible to defeat this regime,” said Abu Ammar. “They have chemical weapons they will possibly use. They have tanks, planes, mortars, rockets and we have nothing.”

He pleaded: “We want them to give us weapons to defend ourselves or to intervene militarily. We are angry. The Syrian people still like the European countries, but if it continues like this, you end up hating them.”

Experts have repeatedly warned that the uprising could take on an increasingly radical flavour, if calls for assistance went unheeded.

In recent months, reports of foreign jihadists flocking to Syria via its porous border with Turkey have raised alarm, although fighters and analysts say there is no big al-Qaeda presence yet.

However, a State Department report last month said the Iraqi branch was believed to be extending its reach into Syria to try to exploit the uprising.

The number of al-Qaeda fighters in Syria was believed to be small, State Department coordinator for counterterrorism, Daniel Benjamin, said.

“But there is a larger group of foreign fighters, many of whom are not directly affiliated with AQ, who are either in or headed to Syria. And clearly, this is a matter of concern for all who fear greater violence in Syria and for regional stability.”

An AFP journalist in Aleppo said last month he saw foreign fighters who claimed to hail from countries as varied as Algeria, Chechnya, France and Sweden come to join Syrian rebel group, the Tawhid Brigade.

Another reporter said he saw fighters from a number of Arab countries including Saudi Arabia at a border crossing between Turkey and northern Syria.

“Why doesn't the government of your country do anything to help us?” Abu Ahmed, a fighter with the Martyrs of Atareb Battalion in the rebel-held Aleppo district of Sukari, pleaded with an AFP photographer.

“In Libya, they helped get rid of (now slain dictator Muammar) Gaddafi, but here in Syria they leave us to die.”

Analysts said there were already several splinter groups on the ground who employ the same methods as al-Qaeda.

Fears of Iraq-style violence multiplied in May when twin suicide bombings in Damascus killed at least 55 people and wounded several hundred - the deadliest attacks since the uprising erupted in March 2011.

Al-Nusra Front, an Islamist group unknown before the revolt, claimed responsibility for the bombings as well as previous attacks in Damascus and Aleppo.

Washington, which has long accused Damascus of turning a blind eye to extremists crossing through into Iraq, has refused to supply arms to the rebels, lest they fall into the hands of al-Qaeda.

In February, when Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri openly expressed support for the Syrian revolt, rebel groups rejected his statement as “interference.”

From the start of the uprising, Assad's regime has claimed to be fighting a foreign-planted, Islamist insurgency led by “armed terrorist groups.”

Though activists have frequently mocked the regime's discourse, they also sense the emergence of radical groups whose agenda is not freedom and democracy, but the establishment of an Islamic state.

The majority of Syria's population is Sunni Muslim, but the country is led by the Alawite Assad clan. Members of the Alawite community - an offshoot of Shi’a Islam - are considered by radical Islamists as apostates.

Though many rebels may not share this view, there are growing signs that they may be willing to make a pact with even the most radical groups to bring Assad down.

“The main aim is to stop this bloodshed in Aleppo. If neither the West nor the Arabs will help us, we will ask for the help of al-Qaeda to stop the bloodshed,” said Baraa, an anti-regime activist in Aleppo, who said al-Qaeda's possible presence would not mean that they would take over.

“In the end, the people of Aleppo will decide their fate,” Baraa told AFP via Skype.

“The people who have stood against and fought a dictator like Bashar al-Assad... I am sure that the same people can also fight al-Qaeda.” - Sapa-AFP

[pentaiah]

Theo ji thank you
for being kind to
not your ilk

[Pranav]

For starters turns back colonialism which is when they lost Syria to Alawites.

replacing paleo-colonialism with neo-colonialism

[Theo_Fidel]

Pen saab,
one follows
as best one can
onleee...

[shyamd]

Major defections will be announced soon or as soon as tonight. These will be pretty huge and could shake the regime. Could it be one of the Makhloufs?

[Suraj]

pentaiah / John Snow / John Umrao : Please stop baiting other posters. Next instance will earn you a warning.

[brihaspati]

Major defections : the source
http://news.yahoo.com/more-spectacular- ... 20586.html

More 'spectacular' defections in Syria soon: France
AFPAFP – 23 hrs ago

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius addresses the media upon his arrival at Beirut international airport from Amman. Fabius told AFP Thursday he had information that the regime of embattled Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad would be rocked by more "spectacular" defections soon. (AFP Photo/Anwar Amro)
[....]
French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius told AFP Thursday he had information that the regime of embattled Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad would be rocked by more "spectacular" defections soon.

Its the French FoM reporting after Amman consultations.

[brihaspati]

More public domain stuff on "defections" :
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/wo ... 6453003694
Rebels keep defectors at arm's length

From: The Australian
August 18, 2012 12:00AM Source: AP

IT is increasingly clear that although a string of defections from the Syrian government show that President Bashar al-Assad's officials are eager to separate themselves from his regime, it is not yet clear what role they will be able to play in the Syrian opposition.

For regime defectors -- including Syria's former prime minister Riyad Hijab, who announced his switch last week -- joining the Free Syrian Army is an involved process. Mohammad Shakaki, an FSA member in Amman who co-ordinates healthcare services and aids Syrian soldiers in defecting to the FSA, told us that the burden is on defectors to alleviate the rebels' suspicions. For rank-and-file defectors, their clothing is first burned to destroy any concealed surveillance devices. Any weapons are then taken away from them, and they are interrogated at length on their past activities, with special scrutiny given to whether they were engaged in killing civilians or FSA soldiers. "We are afraid of spies," he said.


Samer (he requested his real name be withheld), is an FSA member in Jordan who told us there is a great fear among rebels of Assad sympathisers joining the FSA to extract information for the regime. He describes how newly joined members have a trial period of one to three months in which they are strictly watched, and only after a full investigation are they trusted. When asked what happens to Assad moles found within the FSA, Samer merely pointed to the sky.

Even if defectors pass their probationary period, most find themselves funnelled into a division of the FSA that has little to do with the major operations conducted by rebels untainted by an association with the Assad government. Only in rare instances are those from the former group allowed to integrate with the latter. Mr Hijab will soon begin working with the FSA's media unit in Doha, Qatar, but most Syrian officials who defect are not appointed to official positions within the opposition group. The FSA's concerns about subterfuge may partly be explained by the fact that they have spies of their own in the Assad regime.

According to FSA members in Amman, many members of the Assad government are unable to leave the country, but assist the rebels from within the regime, helping to transfer weapons to the opposition and to provide intelligence on the Syrian army's logistics. The FSA also tries to distinguish between defectors who have been persuaded by the opposition's cause, and those who are merely concerned about their own safety. The FSA is very well aware that defections seem to be occurring at a faster rate as the opposition has gained ground.

According to activist websites, there had been more than 42 high-level defectors before Monday, most of them fleeing to Turkey where the FSA has its headquarters. But Samer said the opposition was just as interested in the steady stream of lower-level regime soldiers. "There will be so many defections happening soon, to get ready for the next phase," he said.
[...]
While they are allowed to move freely, Mr Massri said defectors must reside in the facilities, while family members often lived in normal civilian apartments. Several FSA members in Jordan say that with continued support from defectors and the international community, Assad could be toppled in five months.

But if Assad is removed, there is concern among FSA members that the defectors who helped them topple the regime could be a source of friction when it comes to forming a new government. While most FSA members are Sunni, Samer says they will have to reach an accommodation with supporters who share the Assad family's Alawite ethnicity.

"There will be trouble. It is the reality," Shakaki says. "We have to fix a lot of things, but we are all for freedom."

[shyamd]

There will be 3 individuals who will defect and one of them trying to make it out tonight

[Theo_Fidel]

Al Guardian reporting Aleppo airport under attack.

[Virupaksha]

X-post from west asia

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 539930.cms

India objects to OIC calling J&K a country

NEW DELHI: An Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) communique referring to Jammu & Kashmir as a country drew a sharp reaction from India which described it as wrong and unacceptable. Despite opposition from India, OIC continues to refer to the state as occupied territory or a separate country.


"The Summit affirms its solidarity and full support for Sudan, Somalia, Afghanistan and J&K, Iraq, Yemen, Ivory Coast, the Union of Comoros and the Republic of Turkish-Cyprus in addressing the challenges facing these countries."

Wonder what spin, The "secular" govts of Saudis are the chaddi friends and business at forefront people will give.

and these supporters ask we should help the Saudis in over throwing their enemies, one of the few dictators who didnt actually care about J&K. Ofcourse in case of the worst dictatorial royalties of Saudi/Bahrain - we are said that they are untouchable and that we should actively help in continuing their tyranny and help eliminating their enemies.