West Asia News and Discussions

[Samudragupta]

Very much so

KSA is too silent and for a long time for this assertion to be true....

The absence of any word from the Saudi government increases the trepidation in Washington and among concerned parties in the Middle East.

[shyamd]

That's cause they dont need to respond to BS. And there plenty of people meeting him everyday ... Foreign defence salesman, govt officials etc...

[Surya]

except any media people or people who can report to media

[shyamd]

Lol google it and show us all what you find and tell us what the media is saying about it.

[Altair]

Frankly being a ghost is the ultimate, I mean "ultimate achievement" in covert world. No body can target you or know what you are upto because no body knows if you are dead or alive or really exist! Bandar is extremely well connected and can play highest level game in the mirrors.

[Samudragupta]

That's cause they dont need to respond to BS. And there plenty of people meeting him everyday ... Foreign defence salesman, govt officials etc...

If Bandar is well and good how do u think think they are going to respond to this hit job from the Iranians....

Second the hit on Bandar is a significant one as it clearly states that the Iran has identified Bandar as the point man in stopping the Iranian expansionism in the ME....in such a case what is the mandate of Bandar? Who are the other members of the team?What is the role of King in this?What about the internal power struggle among the royal family?


There are lot many unanswered Q's ...if answer does not comes to this Qs early its pretty clear there will be another hit job within the royal family....

[shyamd]

By hit job you mean the media rumours?

Iranian media spread rumours that Bandar lead a coup in Saudi just 2 years ago.

[Mahendra]

Well, the guy seems to be an extremely well connected and important Bandar. Truly a person worthy to be the custodian of the holy intelligence portfolio

[hnair]

Holy intel-gent's name sounds all right. There is a certain honesty to that name, Mahdi. Especially if you can blasphemize the sneaky sniggers from kaffir injins.

Surya-saar, I hear you I am getting antsy too. Where is that fierce Turkish Delight promised exactly a year ago? All we got till now is a plantain leaf of soggy mobil-vada dunked in yellow dossier-sauce. We are sick of that dish already in India.....

[Mahendra]

^:rotfl: Nairgolis, you are in the came class as Anujan for zor ka jhata dheere se lage kind of IEDs.

I said that exactly an [url=http://www.kuch_to_kaam_ki_baat_karo_sirji]year ago[/url] that nothing's gonna happen. See BRF is ahead of the curve and I'm ahead of the BRF curve. The problem with being ahead of the curve is that if you swing your baton too hard it comes to hit you back in the head

[brihaspati]

Saudi and Qatari "sources" are quietly trying to reassure the interested public - about Bandar saab. It is public domain, but you need to be able to understand a bit of Arabic to get the whiff. There is nothing hush hush about it - on both sides.

PS: please track public domain stuff : they are as good as diplomatic cables, high level sources, inner circles, 2nd or 3rd in line to succession etc. Sometimes the sources are themselves figments of imagination, or even if real persons, are lost in their own dreamworld where things happen as they wish.

The signals are all out there, they are always out there. Its a matter of pattern recognition from seemingly unrelated data.

[Surya]

Surya-saar, I hear you I am getting antsy too. Where is that fierce Turkish Delight promised exactly a year ago? All we got till now is a plantain leaf of soggy mobil-vada dunked in yellow dossier-sauce. We are sick of that dish already in India.....

well the damn red line moved.

if only we could stop the earth from spinning and revolving... we can be ahead of the curve

[Philip]

Loudmouth and Echo,Dob and Poodle,Don Quixote...the comic act of the US and its willing Sancho Panza,the UK continues with this act to unseat Assad.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... anbul.html

Britain and US plan a Syrian revolution from an innocuous office block in Istanbul
An underground network of Syrian opposition activists is receiving training and supplies of vital equipment from a combined American and British effort to forge an effective alternative to the Damascus regime.

By Damien McElroy, Istanbul

26 Aug 2012

Dozens of dissidents have been ferried out of Syria to be vetted for foreign backing. Recipients of the aid are given satellite communications and computers so that they can act as a local "hub" linking local activists and the outside world.

The training takes place in an Istanbul district where handsome apartment blocks line the steep slopes and rooftop terraces boast views over the Golden Horn waterway.

Behind closed doors the distractions of outdoor coffee shops and clothing boutiques gives way to power point displays charting the mayhem sweeping Syria.

"We are not 'king-making' in Syria. The UK and the US are moving cautiously to help what has been developing within Syria to improve the capabilities of the opposition," said Alistair Harris, a British political consultant overseeing the programme. "What's going to come next? Who is going to control territory across Syria. We want to give civilians the skills to assert leadership."

Once up and running dissidents can expect help to deal with local shortages and troubleshooting advice from sympathisers.
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But the activists also face two days of vetting designed to ensure that the programme does not fall into the trap of promoting sectarian agendas or the rise of al-Qaeda-style fundamentalists.

"Rather than being about promoting political platforms in Syria, it's about creating a patchwork of people who share common values," Mr Harris said.

The schemes are overseen by the US State Department's Office of Syrian Opposition Support (OSOS) and Foreign Office officials. America has set aside $25 million for political opponents of President Bashar al-Assad while Britain is granting £5 million to the cause of overthrowing the regime.

Mina al-Homsi (a pseudonym) is one of the first graduates of the training.

She now spends her days plotting how to spread seditious messages throughout her homeland through her own network, named Basma.

One of its main activities is to repackage video shot by amateurs into a format that can be used by broadcasters.

In addition to running online television and radio forums, the Basma team have had "tens of thousands" of satirical stickers depicting President Bashar al-Assad as a featherless duck for distribution as agitprop.

"It comes from the emails that his wife Asma sent to him calling him duckie and the cartoon duck is featherless to show that he is an emperor with no clothes," she said. "People will stick them on walls, on car doors, on dispensers in restaurants and those who have not yet joined the revolution will know that we are everywhere."

Foreign intervention in civil wars has proven to be a perilous undertaking since the end of the Cold War but in Syria where an invasion has proven unfeasible, diplomats have had to resort to creative thinking.

It was the legacy of non-intervention, however, that provided the spark for the schemes now backing Basma and others.

An initiative, proposed by Foreign Secretary William Hague, to document evidence of crimes committed in the fighting for use in potential International Criminal Court trials, has been transformed into the multinational project to build Syria's next governing class.

"This has been a generational coming of age," said Mr Harris. "The Foreign Secretary started this as a way to make sure that people who committed crimes in Syria would be held to account. Those of us with experience of the Balkans have taken the lessons of that conflict very much as a formative experience."

With the entry of American funding for a much wider scheme, the need to avoid the mistakes of wars in Afghanistan and Iraq has also driven the planning.

"It's also not Iraq or Afghanistan – there are no bundles of cash being dropped on the problem without accountability," he said.

Jon Wilks, the Foreign Office diplomat who serves as envoy to the Syrian opposition, told the Arabic newspaper al Sharq al Aswat last week that Britain was already working to lay the foundations of democracy in a post-Assad Syria.

He said: "We must train activists on governing locally in villages and cities in Syria for the post-transitional phase."

Officials are adamant there will be no crossover between the civilian "non-lethal" assistance and the military campaign waged by the rebel fighters.

The scheme has, however, infuriated the exiled opposition body, the Syrian National Council. Its failure to provide a united and coherent front against the regime has led some western officials to brief privately that foreign governments were shifting support beyond the exiled body.

But in a barely furnished office in a tower block near Istanbul airport an SNC official decried the false promises of its allies. "We've heard a lot of promises from the very beginning of the SNC but none of those have been fulfilled," the SNC official said. "This has reflected absolutely negatively on our work. The opposition of Syria wants the world to provide humanitarian aid for the people in need and the Free Syria Army wants intervention to stop planes bombing their positions.

"Instead they go around behind our back undermining our role."

A Whitehall official said the effort was not about building an alternative to the SNC but a means to enhance the role of those dissidents still within Syria.

Victoria Nuland, the State Department spokesman, confirmed the OSOS programme last week and said its full effect would only be seen when President Assad leaves office.

"There are groups inside and outside Syria beginning to plan for that day-after and beginning to plan for how they might quickly stand up at least that first stage of transition so that we could move on when Assad goes, because he will go."

[Philip]

One can understand now why the Israelis "freak out" in Goa and elsewhere in India to get over their stress of compulsory army service and "dealing" with the Palestinian "Intifada".One young ex-Israeli soldier told me that the stress was so bad that he had left Israel for good as he could not handle the mental pressure of continuously living in a war mentality.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 81393.html

Israel breaks silence over army abuses
Ex-soldiers admit to appalling violence against Palestinian children

Hafez Rajabi was marked for life by his encounter with the men of the Israeli army's Kfir Brigade five years ago this week. Sitting beneath the photograph of his late father, the slightly built 21-year-old in jeans and trainers points to the scar above his right eye where he was hit with the magazine of a soldier's assault rifle after the patrol came for him at his grandmother's house before 6am on 28 August 2007.

He lifts his black Boss T-shirt to show another scar running some three inches down his back from the left shoulder when he says he was violently pushed – twice – against a sharp point of the cast-iron balustrade beside the steps leading up to the front door. And all that before he says he was dragged 300m to another house by a unit commander who threatened to kill him if he did not confess to throwing stones at troops, had started to beat him again, and at one point held a gun to his head. "He was so angry," says Hafez. "I was certain that he was going to kill me."

This is just one young man's story, of course. Except that – remarkably – it is corroborated by one of the soldiers who came looking for him that morning. One of 50 testimonies on the military's treatment of children – published today by the veterans' organisation Breaking the Silence – describes the same episode, if anything more luridly than Hafez does. "We had a commander, never mind his name, who was a bit on the edge," the soldier, a first sergeant, testifies. "He beat the boy to a pulp, really knocked him around. He said: 'Just wait, now we're taking you.' Showed him all kinds of potholes on the way, asked him: 'Want to die? Want to die right here?' and the kid goes: 'No, no...' He was taken into a building under construction. The commander took a stick, broke it on him, boom boom. That commander had no mercy. Anyway the kid could no longer stand on his feet and was already crying. He couldn't take it any more. He cried. The commander shouted: 'Stand up!' Tried to make him stand, but from so much beating he just couldn't. The commander goes: 'Don't put on a show,' and kicks him some more."

Two months ago, a report from a team of British lawyers, headed by Sir Stephen Sedley and funded by the UK Foreign Office, accused Israel of serial breaches of international law in its military's handling of children in custody. The report focused on the interrogation and formal detention of children brought before military courts – mainly for allegedly throwing stones.

For the past eight years, Breaking the Silence has been taking testimonies from former soldiers who witnessed or participated in human rights abuses in the occupied territories. Most of these accounts deal with "rough justice" administered to minors by soldiers on the ground, often without specific authorisation and without recourse to the military courts. Reading them, however, it's hard not to recall the Sedley report's shocked reference to the "belief, which was advanced to us by a military prosecutor, that every Palestinian child is a 'potential terrorist'".

The soldier puts it differently: "We were sort of indifferent. It becomes a kind of habit. Patrols with beatings happened on a daily basis. We were really going at it. It was enough for you to give us a look that we didn't like, straight in the eye, and you'd be hit on the spot. We got to such a state and were so sick of being there."

Some time ago, after he had testified to Breaking the Silence, we had interviewed this soldier. As he sat nervously one morning in a quiet Israeli beauty spot, an incongruous location he had chosen to ensure no one knew he was talking, he went through his recollections about the incident – and several others – once again. His account does not match the Palestinian's in every detail. (Hafez remembers a gun being pressed to his temple, for example, while the soldier recalls that the commander "actually stuck the gun barrel in the kid's mouth. Literally".)

But in every salient respect, the two accounts match. Both agree that Hafez, on the run after hearing that he was wanted, had slipped into his grandmother's house before dawn. Hafez showed us the room in his grandmother's house, the last on the left in the corridor leading to her room, where he had been hiding when the soldiers arrived. Sure enough, the soldier says: "We entered, began to trash the place. We found the boy behind the last door on the left. He was totally scared."

Both Hafez – who has never read or heard the soldier's account – and the soldier recall the commander forcing him at one point during his ordeal to throw a stone at them, and that the boy did so as feebly as possible. Then, in the soldier's words "the commander said: 'Of course you throw stones at a soldier.' Boom, banged him up even more".

Perhaps luckily for Hafez, the second, still uncompleted, house is within sight of that of his aunt, Fathia Rajabi, 57, who told us how she had gone there after seeing the soldiers dragging a young man behind a wall, unaware that he was her nephew. "I was crying, 'God forbids to beat him.' He recognised my voice and yelled: 'My aunt, my aunt.' I tried to enter but the two soldiers pointed their guns at me and yelled rouh min houn, Arabic for 'go away'. I began slapping my face and shouting at passers-by to come and help. Ten minutes later the soldiers left. I and my mother, my brother and neighbours went to the room. He was bleeding from his nose and head, and his back."

The soldier, who like his comrades mistook Ms Rajabi for the boy's mother, recalls: "The commander said to [her]: 'Keep away!' Came close, cocked his gun. She got scared. [He shouted:] 'Anyone gets close, I kill him. Don't annoy me. I'll kill him. I have no mercy.' He was really on the edge. Obviously [the boy] had been beaten up. Anyway, he told them: 'Get the hell out of here!' and all hell broke loose. His nose was bleeding. He had really been beaten to a pulp."

Finally, Hafez's brother Mousa, 23, a stone cutter who joined his aunt at the second house, recalls a second army jeep arriving and one soldier taking Hafez's pulse, giving Mousa a bottle of water which he then poured over Hafez's face and speaking to the commander in Hebrew.

"I understood he was protesting," says Mousa. This was almost certainly the 'sensitive' medic whom the soldier describes as having "caught the commander and said: 'Don't touch him any more. That's it.'" The commander goes: 'What's with you, gone leftie?' And he said: 'No, I don't want to see such things being done. All you're doing to this family is making them produce another suicide bomber. If I were a father and saw you doing this to my kid, I'd seek revenge that very moment.'"

In fact Hafez, did not turn into a "suicide bomber". He has never even been in prison. Instead, the outcome has been more prosaic. He no longer has nightmares about his experience as he did in the first two months. But as a former mechanic he is currently unemployed partly because there are few jobs outside construction sites and the Hebron quarries, where he says his injuries still prevent him from carrying heavy loads, and partly because he often does "not feel I want to work again". And he has not – so far – received any compensation, including the more than £1,100 he and Mousa had to spend on his medical treatment in the two years after he was taken.

The report by Sir Stephen Sedley's team remarks that "as the United Kingdom has itself learned by recent experience in Iraq, the risk of abuse is inherent in any system of justice which depends on military force". Moreover, Britain, unlike Israel, has no organisation like Breaking the Silence that can document, from the inside, the abuse of victims like Hafez Rajabi who never even make it to court.

But as the Sedley report also says, after drawing attention to the argument that every Palestinian is a "potential terrorist": "Such a stance seems to us to be the starting point of a spiral of injustice, and one which only Israel, as the occupying power in the West Bank, can reverse."

Breaking the silence: soldiers' testimonies

First Sergeant, Kfir Brigade

Salfit 2009

"We took over a school and had to arrest anyone in the village who was between the ages of 17 and 50. When these detainees asked to go to the bathroom, and the soldiers took them there, they beat them to a pulp and cursed them for no reason, and there was nothing that would legitimise hitting them. An Arab was taken to the bathroom to piss, and a soldier slapped him, took him down to the ground while he was shackled and blindfolded. The guy wasn't rude and did nothing to provoke any hatred or nerves. Just like that, because he is an Arab. He was about 15, hadn't done a thing.

"In general people at the school were sitting for hours in the sun. They could get water once in a while, but let's say someone asked for water five times, a soldier could come to him and slap him just like that. I saw many soldiers using their knees to hit them, just out of boredom. Because you're standing around for 10 hours doing nothing, you're bored, so you hit them. I know that at the bathroom, there was this 'demons' dance' as it was called. Anyone who brought a Palestinian there – it was catastrophic. Not bleeding beatings – they stayed dry – but still beatings."

First Sergeant, Combat Engineering Corps

Ramallah 2006-07

"There was this incident where a 'straw widow' was put up following a riot at Qalandiya on a Friday, in an abandoned house near the square. Soldiers got out with army clubs and beat people to a pulp. Finally the children who remained on the ground were arrested. The order was to run, make people fall to the ground. There was a 10- to 12-man team, four soldiers lighting up the area. People were made to fall to the ground, and then the soldiers with the clubs would go over to them and beat them. A slow runner was beaten – that was the rule.

"We were told not to use it on people's heads. I don't remember where we were told to hit, but as soon as a person on the ground is beaten with such a club, it's difficult to be particular."

First Sergeant, Kfir Brigade

Hebron 2006-07

"We'd often provoke riots there. We'd be on patrol, walking in the village, bored, so we'd trash shops, find a detonator, beat someone to a pulp, you know how it is. Search, mess it all up. Say we'd want a riot? We'd go up to the windows of a mosque, smash the panes, throw in a stun grenade, make a big boom, then we'd get a riot.

"Every time we'd catch Arab kids.You catch him, push the gun against his body. He can't make a move – he's totally petrified. He only goes: 'No, no, army.' You can tell he's petrified. He sees you're mad, that you couldn't care less about him and you're hitting him really hard the whole time. And all those stones flying around. You grab him like this, you see? We were mean, really. Only later did I begin to think about these things, that we'd lost all sense of mercy."

Rank and unit unidentified in report

Hebron 2007-08

"One night, things were hopping in Idna village [a small town of 20,000 people, about 13km west of Hebron], so we were told there's this wild riot, and we should get there fast. Suddenly we were showered with stones and didn't know what was going on. Everyone stopped suddenly; the sergeant sees the company commander get out of the vehicle and joins him. We jump out without knowing what was going on – I was last. Suddenly I see a shackled and blindfolded boy. The stoning stopped as soon as the company commander gets out of the car. He fired rubber ammo at the stone-throwers and hit this boy.

"At some point they talked about hitting his face with their knees. At that point I argued with them and said: 'I swear to you, if a drop of his blood or a hair falls off his head, you won't sleep for three nights. I'll make you miserable.'

"They laughed at me for being a leftie. 'If we don't show them what's what, they go back to doing this.' I argued with them that the guy was shackled and couldn't do anything. That he was being taken to the Shabak [security service] and we'd finished our job."
inShare6

[shyamd]

As I said earlier - unprecedented intervention. Ramana - for you:

Elite Western Forces Said Poised to Move on Syrian Chemical Arms

Aug. 24, 2012

Elite military teams from France, the United Kingdom and the United States have been deployed near violence-stricken Syria, where they are awaiting potential orders to move to seize and secure the Bashar Assad regime's chemical weapons, the London Times reported on Thursday.

The specialized Western forces have been deployed to neighboring states Israel, Jordan, and Turkey for in excess of 30 days, according to intelligence insiders.

The military teams would only enter Syria if it appears Damascus is readying chemical weapon attacks or the unconventional arms are in danger of being seized by opposition forces and other nonstate actors such as Hezbollah.

"The personnel are there, the equipment is there, the lift capability is there," an intelligence insider in the region told the Times. "There are people on the ground (inside Syria) assessing the logistics of landing and securing these [WMD] sites. Preparations are under way for a mission to secure and destroy these weapons."

The United States is understood to have prepared contingency plans for responding to a WMD crisis in Syria that could involve covert missions to stockpile facilities by special operation forces trained in handling chemical arms and targeted airstrikes aimed at minimizing the chance of harmful toxins escaping into the air when the arsenals are blown up.

Following a request by U.S. Central Command head Gen. James Mattis for two aircraft carriers in the Middle East, the USS John C. Stennis on Monday began making its way toward the USS Enterprise, according to the report.

Military preparations are being pursued "in case we confront a situation where Assad makes a terrible and horrific choice," State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said to journalists.

President Obama earlier this week implicitly threatened U.S. military retaliation against the Assad regime should Damascus move to use chemical weapons, saying that such an act would breach a "red line." British Prime Minister David Cameron has also said his government would not tolerate any Syrian employment of chemical arms.

Syria has signed the Geneva Protocol, forbids the use of chemical weapons, but not the Chemical Weapons Convention, which additionally outlaws the production and stockpiling of such weapons of mass destruction. Little is publicly known about the country's chemical arsenal though it is understood to encompass hundreds of tons of blister and nerve agents that can be delivered via rockets, ballistic missiles and other means.

There are believed to be four principal chemical agent manufacturing plants located not far from Hama, Homs, and Aleppo -- cities that have been the scenes of heated battles between rebel fighters and Assad loyalists. Less is known about the number and location of the regime's chemical depots; the Times cites assessments of close to 40 holding sites.

"Assad's departure, which, when it happens, risks complete anarchy, will pose serious risks in respect of chemical weapons security," an unidentified U.K. government insider said to the newspaper on Thursday.

"Ironically, the Assad regime has, give or take, been scrupulous in ensuring Syrian chemical weapons stocks remain secured. He has known the risk any use of them entails for many weeks," the source continued.

Protections around Syrian chemical sites were discussed by Turkish and U.S. officials this week as part of broader efforts to prepare for the anticipated eventual collapse of the Assad government, the New York Times reported.

Article is refering to Forward air controllers and SAS

[RajeshA]

To some extent the "securing" of Chemical and Biological Weapons in Syria could be a dry run for something similar in Pakistan! Don't know whether USA would ever do it, but India too can learn from it!

[pentaiah]

"The personnel are there, the equipment is there, the lift capability is there," an intelligence insider in the region told the Times. "There are people on the ground (inside Syria) assessing the logistics of landing and securing these [WMD] sites. Preparations are under way for a mission to secure and destroy these weapons."

This could be psy ops to rattle the regime thereby committing a faux pas

[shyamd]

Nah, it's old news actually.

[Altair]

To some extent the "securing" of Chemical and Biological Weapons in Syria could be a dry run for something similar in Pakistan! Don't know whether USA would ever do it, but India too can learn from it!

Hi
I am Alice and I would like to come to your wonderland.

[pentaiah]

here is the latest from my inside sources

[shyamd]

Just got told that UAE last month issued diplomatic visas to Gen Assaf Shawkat and sister of Bashar - Bushra Al Assad.
Remember UAE offered Asad asylum earlier on in the conflict last year. So he is one of the few that french FM said was "spectacular" defection on its way.

KSA is creating a new unit to succeed the SNC. This will involve military guys - current intel chiefs and so on and also Syrian diplomats based in the Gulf.

CIA and Turks are using Iraqi Kurdistan as a base for operations in Syria as mentioned before. The Syrian ambassador to Iraq defected whilst he was in Erbil.

--------------
Will be speaking to source today or tomorrow, so will keep you all updated on the prospects of peace and war in the region.

[shyamd]

Guest Post 1: 'India and the Persian Connection' by A Durai

India and the Persian connection

Much has been made of the recent move by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) to extradite a terrorist who was involved in the 26/11 Mumbai attacks - many press reports cited the growing relationship in security and intelligence matters between the two countries. It is indeed true that the growing high-level intelligence interaction between Indian and Saudi counterparts has led to arrests of other wanted terrorists in the Kingdom (not just Lashkar terror operatives). But this is just one part of the multi-faceted relationship between the Kingdom and India.

One of the chief drivers of the growing relationship between the India and Saudi Arabia is the perceived Iranian threat to the latter. Over the past 15 years, Iran has managed to expand its influence into countries that were once perceived to be less of a security threat towards the Saudi Kingdom. Today, Iran is believed to have major control over Iraq - via influence over the politico- religious system (with Gulf leaders referring to the Iraqi PM as an "Iranian stooge"), and the two major Shia Iraqi militias (Mahdi Army and the SCIRI - Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq). Iran also has in place a strong alliance with the Alawite-led Syrian leadership and the oft-spoken-about relationship with Hezbollah in Lebanon.

With the removal of President Hosni Mubarak in Egypt - a staunch ally of the Saudis and one who was relied upon as a strong pillar of support especially on the security and defence side of things - the Kingdom sees itself surrounded by emergent problems. The newly elected President of Egypt, Mohammed Morsi, is overtly promising to strengthen ties with Iran and when you couple this with the continuing instability in Bahrain and Yemen, it is completely understandable why the KSA in particular and the Gulf Cooperation Council(GCC) states in general are looking increasingly nervous.

Indeed, one can but imagine the effect that a nuclear Iran would have on the security affairs of the various Gulf Kingdoms. As a result of this KSA has no choice but to build strong ties with regional powers such as India, Pakistan, Jordan and Turkey. It is also a time when the GCC with KSA, UAE and Qatar at its core is taking proactive steps to defend its security. One standout example of the same would be these countries lending support to Syrian rebels - by providing arms, finances as well as diplomatic support in order to break the Iranian alliance framework in Syria and Lebanon.

With all this happening in the Saudi neighbourhood, the last thing that the GCC needs is an Indo-Pak war which would remove two regional powers who have the capability to intervene favourably in the event of a war between itself and Iran. KSA of course also relies heavily on Pakistani military personnel to man its own armed forces in exchange for the transfer of military equipment, and perhaps for financing up to 30 per cent of the Pakistani military budget. However, it is likely that Pakistan would request these personnel to return in the event of a war with India, which would make the Gulf security situation even more precarious.

The quiet visitors to New Delhi

Last December saw some quiet visits by a few Gulf dignitaries to Delhi - one of whom was Prince Turki Al-Faisal (the former Saudi Intelligence chief) and another was a senior advisor to the Kingdom of Kuwait. Officially they were in India to interact with sundry mandarins in South Bloc and visit the Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis (IDSA) but truth be told these visits were probably of much greater importance than is readily understood.

As it turns out, the GCC has been seeking a mediator with Iran for some time over the nuclear issue. Initially, the Sultanate of Oman was chosen due to its relatively close ties with Iran. However, as one Gulf official put it, "No big nation listens to a small nation". This then led to Turkey being asked to mediate between the Iranians and the Arabs. However, the Gulf Kingdoms have been disappointed as Turkey has been unable to deal with the Iranians effectively.

The message conveyed from these visits was that the Gulf leadership is impressed with the way India has been able to deal with the Iranians - particularly, the mechanism created to deal with the subject of Afghanistan (where all difficult issues are discussed) and also India's ties with the entire spectrum of the Iranian leadership. The Gulf Kingdoms, it seems, want India to utilise its relationship with Iran in order to mediate on the nuclear issue. In reference to this, sources have confirmed that India has indeed opened a channel with the Iranians although how effective this has been is, as yet, unclear.

As a quid pro quo, there is an expectation in Indian quarters that the Gulf Kingdoms who have considerable influence in Pakistan can help moderate Pakistani behaviour on terrorism (and other areas of concern), increase investments in Indian infrastructure which will help develop the economy (as it did for the US), growth in all areas of the strategic relationship and pave the way for a FTA to be signed shortly.

Afghanistan

While the Gulf nations are pushing us to help settle the Iranian nuclear file amicably - we can't obviously forget our very real interests in Iran. Since Pakistan has blocked India's access to Central Asia and Afghanistan, India has no choice but to build close relations with Iran. Iran is central to our trade with Central Asia and Afghanistan. Our interests there are not merely trade-oriented but also involve security and defence matters in Eurasia which have a direct impact on us.

The development of the Iranian port of Chabahar and multi-modal transport (rail and road) into Afghanistan as well as Central Asia will allow us access to a highly resource rich region that can be utilised to support our economy. It will also serve as a shorter route for Indian goods heading towards Europe, thus helping to increase the competitiveness of Indian goods.

However, there is also a military aspect to such infrastructure. Having access to roads and rail will give us the capability, should the need arise, to intervene in a large way (subject to Russian and Iranian support of course). All this suggests that India has tough decisions ahead in order to balance our interests in the Gulf with our interests in Iran.

The nuclear file: what lies ahead

Gulf sources acknowledge that sanctions need time to work and a long-term solution is required to fully resolve the issue. It appears there is both a short-term and a long-term strategy at play here with Gulf states, Israel and the west in agreement on these aspects. The short-term strategy is to do all that is possible to delay the Iranian nuclear project by any means possible (including a last resort military strike on Iranian nuclear sites). The long term one, that of regime change (without the need to intervene militarily), can delay the prospects of a nuclear Iran indefinitely if it ever comes to fruition.

A former chief of the Mossad, Meir Dagan, acknowledged that air strikes on Iranian nuclear sites will only delay the project by two years at the most. However, in a recent interview, Dagan admitted that an air strike or regional war will result in people getting behind the regime and hence extending its life. Many US, GCC and Israeli officials agree with the view expressed by Dagan and conclude that the Iranian regime is under deep pressure to deliver results to the Iranian people. Dennis Ross (former Special Advisor to the Obama Administration on the Persian Gulf), in a recent conference, described Iran as similar to the Soviet Union in 1981 where ideology is no longer believed and the veneer is wearing thin. Therefore it is clear that all sides consider a regional war is not the best option although it may get sparked of suddenly as we shall see below.

Concurrently, the aim of the sanctions regime on Iran is to force the Iranian leadership to give up their nuclear weapons programme. If they don't, the pressure on the economy and the Iranian people will result in some sort of Arab spring-type revolution. The use of cyber weapons by western and Israeli intelligence has been particularly successful in the case of Iran with US officials suggesting that they have managed to delay the programme by a couple of years. Going forward, we can expect to see the collective use of sanctions, cyber attacks as well as a naval blockade by the west and Israel.

Why a naval blockade?

A nuclear Iran is not going to be in the interests of either Russia or China as Iran would naturally compete in the same sphere of influence of these two nations, particularly what Russia considers as its back yard, Central Asia. As a result, a blockade imposed by the west will not be really opposed by these two and it will mean that the Iranians will have no option but to cooperate with the world powers on their nuclear programme. After all, attacking your only allies, Russia and China, will not help the Iranians.

Interestingly, the US military has apparently conducted a number of joint exercises off the coast of North Carolina with their Russian and European counterparts, dealing with the "repulsion of an attack by small-sized vessels, helicopter rescue operations, personnel transfer procedures and joint manoeuvring" - operational scenarios that could well describe an asymmetric naval showdown with the Iranian Navy.

After a strike

Some alarming estimates say that Iran is only 8 months away from achieving the capability to build a nuclear weapon and hence Israel as well as the west may be pressured to act militarily before then. In the event of such a scenario, India will have to prepare contingency plans to evacuate the millions of Indians in the region as well as secure energy supplies for itself in the event Iran chooses to retaliate by closing the Strait of Hormuz.

Gulf forces are already on red alert in the region as war between the US/west and Iran could take place by miscalculation on either side, not to mention the high concentration of military vessels/aircraft in the Arabian Gulf where the chances of accidental shots being fired and escalating into a conflict are rather high. Contingency measures have been put in place for the last 6 months by the GCC fearing the worst.

One hopes preparations for such a scenario are being made by Indian military planners as well.

Summing it all up

The growing threat of war would mean that India will have to source oil from more stable neighbourhoods. Africa and South America are possible solutions. India will also need to develop its own shale oil and gas resources. The threat of war will also mean that oil prices will remain sticky at least for the next one to two years and the New Delhi will have to take this into consideration when drawing up its financial plans.

[/quote]

Confirmed below by the Bahraini ambassador:

Gulf Arab nations seek India to rein in Iran

Indrani Bagchi, TNN | Aug 27, 2012, 04.51AM IST

NEW DELHI: Gulf Arab countries want India to play a larger role in maintaining peace and security in their region. In particular, they want India to influence Iranian outlook and behaviour.

Speaking to TOI, ambassador of Bahrain, Mohammed Ghassan Shaikho, said, "India has strong strategic interests in our region. Apart from energy supplies, there are six million expatriate Indians living and working in Gulf countries, sending back remittances of more than $40 billion. Bilateral trade between India and the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) countries is over $160 billion."

As India and Bahrain prepare to travel to Iran for the 16th NAM summit next week, Shaikho said India, as a founder member of NAM, should take the lead in giving the grouping a new political vision. This vision, according to him, should be centred on two main principles — "good working relations between neighbours and non-interference in internal affairs of other states." "We must recognize the importance of regional groups to deal with regional problems," he said.

The Gulf concerns come amid reports that the NAM summit will focus on the Syrian crisis, and the Middle East unrest. Shaikho said NAM should focus on more global problems. "The international environment is conducive to cooperation and achieving the goals and missions of third world countries. We need to cooperate with the UN and lend our might to solving the problems of global warming and technology," he said.

After the agitation and unrest in Bahrain earlier this year, when Saudi Arabia sent troops to help the government crack down on the Shia protests, Shaikho said an inquiry commission had been set up, which gave a report critical of Bahrain's Sunni authorities. Bahrain had blamed Iran for stoking the protests and had withdrawn its ambassador to Tehran.

Bahrain has a Sunni minority ruling over Shia majority.

[ramana]

A few general comments on article and the comments by Shaikho of Bahrain.

- Good summary of the facts
- Both KSA and GCC must be kidding to think that India will pressure Iran for such measly crumbs like holding back TSP and offer of investment in Indian economy. TSP is a menace to itself and to the Sunni Gulf countries as it gets more and more Wahabandized. It will take them all out of power and remake the politicial sitiation. They all will suffer Talibanization. Secondly investment in Indian economy is their own good. They get safe and assured high returns. Do they want to invest in Wall Street or Londonium where there are regular frauds? So they are not doing anything out of the ordinary. So what else they can offer?

- Shaikho is cleverly holding the six million Indian expatriates and their $40B remitances hostage. Maybe India should pull them out and let them have Pakis to fill in.

- Note such threats wont work on India. If Iran is gone these guys will be back to supporting terrorists under guise of Islamic charity.

Had a discussion with a Muslim from Indian sub-continent.
He says remote chance of Israel hitting Iran as it will take out the Shia pressure on Sunni Middle East and makes the Persians more inimical to Israel.

On the other hand Israel wants US to do the needful for that very reason.

US wont do any thing till elections are over and even then unless Iran is really comingout of closet there will sanctions and such only.


Paarkalam! Lets see.
-----------

BTW only a Modern mind would recommend Trukey as interlocutor with Iran. The mess in Middle East is due to the long quarrel between Ottomon Turks and Safavid Persia.
Hejaz was conquered in pique by Ottomon Turks when they were thwarted by Safavid Persia!


And the Brits engineered the revolt by the Hashemite Arabs in WWI to liberate Hejaz from the Ottomons.

[Agnimitra]

shyamd ji, there were some indications in May that there would be a Saudi-Bahrain union announced in the near future. Any follow-up on that?

[RamaY]

Confirmed below by the Bahraini ambassador:

Gulf Arab nations seek India to rein in Iran

NEW DELHI: Gulf Arab countries want India to play a larger role in maintaining peace and security in their region. In particular, they want India to influence Iranian outlook and behaviour.

Speaking to TOI, ambassador of Bahrain, Mohammed Ghassan Shaikho, said, "India has strong strategic interests in our region. Apart from energy supplies, there are six million expatriate Indians living and working in Gulf countries, sending back remittances of more than $40 billion. Bilateral trade between India and the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) countries is over $160 billion."

This is what happens when ignorant run foreign policy and an elephant prostrates in front of a desert mice.

This Bahraini Ambassador must be put in his place. I have some IEDeas on how.

This moron has the temerity to demand that India to influence Iranian outlook and behavior. Perhaps India should remind them that any indication of hurting Indian expat interests will result in end of Bahrain.

We should also remind Bahrain that no matter how much oil they might have under their unwashed bottoms, they will be nothing compared to aiRian or India and must behave.

[shyamd]

shyamd ji, there were some indications in May that there would be a Saudi-Bahrain union announced in the near future. Any follow-up on that?

Work in progress - still bones of contention with the smaller states who have worries. They will be sorted in time and Saudi Bahrain stuff is going on. I think target date is probably end of the year. Now that ramadan is over it will probably appear in the news more often

[Philip]

The Qataris are akin to the "tail wagging the dog",with their punching well above their weight,but the Bahraini's are the "tick on the tail" trying to wag the elephant!

Before the sh*t hits the fan,what we should do is to ask the Iranians to ship us as much petro products as they can,send every tanker we possess in shuttle trips and build up a buffer stock of reserves for at least a year.The cats and dogs in Washington might whine and snarl,but there's B all that they can do.To attempt to impose sanctions against us and treat us like another Gulf sand dune,will kill off their interests in India for another decade at least.The hard fact is that the US needs India more than we need it as it trues its best to field us as its frontline pawn against China.Imagine a scenario where India and China due to western/US adventurism come to an agreement-freeze contentious issues (border,de-militarisation of Tibet on the common border) for a century etc.,and form a triumvirate along with Russia.Though unlikely today,history has often thrown up surprises.Who knows,Pak might become so unmanageable that the PRC might ditch it one day for better relations with India.

Our interests are best served by cementing a strong permanent relationship with Iran,as it gives us the ability to outflank our mortal enemy Pak.Our main terrorist threat today still comes from Pak,whether external or internal,and as the recent cyberstrike against our NE brethren showed,the hate campaign against India goes on unabated.The Iranian corridor will allow us to access both Afghanistan as well as Russia and Central Asia,vital for our traditional trade and security ties.

The Iranian N question is better resolved by the west and Iran themselves.Let Iran and its estranged brother Muslim states find their own level of accommodation themselves.We would be wasting our time in trying to resolve their differences. The attitude of the Saudis and the Sheikhs towards Iran first needs to change ,as Iran feels threatened by a pincer movement from both a nuclear Israel and western attempts to overthrow the regime and a nuclear equipped Saudi Arabia (and its ragtag sheikhdoms) thanks to mercenary PK and the clandestine N relationship that exists between the two.The Sunni axis in trying to overthrow Assad also does not help,and the Syrian strongman and military have shown that they will go to any lengths to stay in power and defeat the machinations of the US and its poodles,especially as they have the unstinted backing of Russia and China.

[Philip]

Western plan to create a new "Buffer state" within Syria and Turkey.This will involve military involvement on the ground say some,where a new well fortified mil. zone armed by "rebels" and western mercenaries can be carved out of Syria along the Turkish border,easy to support logistically.This is because the rebel attempts to seize Syrian towns and cities have come a cropper with the Aleppo fiasco and the unexpected strength and will of the Assad regime to survive.Thus the Western solution is to create a puppet entity by force and use the foothold on the ground to further attempt to overthrow the Assad regime.How Russia and China are going to view western military involvement in Syria on the ground without any UN sanction is another matte.The scant respect the west is giving to the UN charter,as was recently displayed by Britain threatening to invade the Ecuadorean embassy and seize Assange ,shows the "gangsta" mentality of the current crop of western leaders.

France confirms it is working to establish buffer zone within Syria
France has confirmed that Western states were working with Turkey to establish buffer zones within Syria as the international community scrambled to formulate a response to the rapidly worsening crisis in the country.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... Syria.html

“We are working … [on] the initiative of buffer zones proposed by Turkey,” Mr Hollande said. “We are doing so in co-ordination with our closest partners.”

Indicating the formation of a twin-pronged Western strategy, Mr Hollande also became the first international leader to urge the Syrian opposition to form a provisional government, promising to grant it immediate recognition once it is formed.

With refugees pouring across Syria’s borders, and Turkey struggling to respond to rapidly increasing influx, the long-discussed issue of a buffer zone to protect civilians in northern Syria has acquired a new sense of urgency.

Thousands of refugees massed in makeshift accommodation on the Syrian side of the Turkish border yesterday as Anakar sealed its crossings, claiming its camps were full.
Related Articles

Rebels shoot down Syrian regime helicopter
27 Aug 2012

Britain and US plan Syrian revolution
26 Aug 2012

With as many as 80,000 refugees spread across camps in southern Turkey, the numbers who have fled violence in Syria has almost doubled in a month.

Turkish requests for a buffer zone, which would provide a haven not just for civilians but also for Syrian rebels operating along both sides of the border, have been so far rebuffed by the United States.

It remains far from clear how a buffer zone would be policed, although it has always been assumed that Turkey and Arab States would take the lead and that there would be no deployment of Western forces.

Pressure for a more robust response from the international community has grown after the bloodiest month of the uprising so far claimed more than 4,000 lives, according to opposition groups.

With rebel fighters and government forces fighting each other to near stalemate in the northern city of Aleppo, President Bashar al-Assad has switched his attention to Damascus.

Last week, he launched his bloodiest offensive yet in the capital, with government forces launching an assault that killed hundreds of people in Daraya, on the southwestern outskirts of the city, according to opposition statistics.

Activists say many of the dead were killed in summary executions and survivors yesterday spoke of soldiers bayoneting dozens of people as they swept victoriously through the town.

Opposition fighters declared that they had partially avenged the “massacre” in Daraya after successfully shooting down a helicopter gunship over Damascus.

Video footage filmed by the rebels showed the helicopter catch fire after being struck before spinning out of control and plummeting to the ground in a ball of fire.

In recent weeks rebels have been hapless in the face of regime aerial attack, both by helicopter gunships and fighter-jets that have shown little distinction between civilian and insurgent targets.

Rebel hopes of capturing either Aleppo or Damascus may well depend on finding a systematic strategy of dealing with the aerial threat. That prospect appears a long way off, with opposition fighters admitting that they had brought down the helicopter more by luck than design.

“It was flying overhead the eastern part of the city and firing all morning,” an activist identifying himself as Abu Bakr told the Reuters news agency. “The rebels had been trying to hit [it] for about an hour; finally they did.”

The felling of the helicopter, while undoubtedly morale boosting, brought only fleeting respite for the rebels.

Ignoring the international condemnation triggered by the mass killings in Daraya, government forces have switched their focus from the west to the east of the city as part of a campaign to reassert total control over Mr Assad’s capital.

The full gamut of the regime’s arsenal was deployed, with fighter planes striking closer to the heart of Damascus than ever before as the army maintained a relentless barrage of shelling and helicopter attacks on a string of eastern suburbs.

At least 62 people were killed in the assault, opposition activists said, with shells striking a row of flats in Jobar, the district where the helicopter had been shot down earlier in the day.

As in Daraya, there were reports of summary executions as government forces advanced. Footage released by opposition campaigners showed 20 corpses on the floor of a mosque in the neighbouring district of Zamalka, among them three children.

The new bloodshed came as volunteers recovered dozens more bodies in Daraya, where the opposition claims that between 300 and 600 people were killed during a five-day battle for the town last week.

One survivor, who gave his name as Abu Firas, said that more than 100 people were killed as soldiers went door-to-door hunting for residents who had escaped the days of shelling that preceded their sweep through the town.

“Some they lined up and shot in front of their wives and sisters,” Abu Firas said, adding that he had survived by hiding on top of a cupboard. “I saw them kill three men with knives attached to their guns and there are many others dead with stabbing wounds.”

Ban Ki-Moon, the United Nations secretary general, yesterday demanded an immediate investigation into the killings, which he called “an appalling and brutal crime”.
[/quote]

[Philip]

Exclusive interview by Syrian FM.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 82457.html

Exclusive: ‘We believe that the USA is the major player against Syria and the rest are its instruments’
Assad's Foreign Minister gives his first interview to a Western journalist since the conflict began

The battle for Damascus could be heard inside the Foreign Minister's office yesterday, a vibration of mortars and tank fire from the suburbs of the capital that penetrated Walid Muallem's inner sanctum, a dangerous heartbeat to match the man's words.

America was behind Syria's violence, he said, which will not end even after the battle for Aleppo is over. "I tell the Europeans: 'I don't understand your slogan about the welfare of the Syrian people when you are supporting 17 resolutions against the welfare of the Syrian people'. And I tell the Americans: 'You must read well what you did in Afghanistan and Somalia. I don't understand your slogan of fighting international terrorism when you are supporting this terrorism in Syria'."

Walid Muallem spoke in English and very slowly, either because of the disconcerting uproar outside or because this was his first interview with a Western journalist since the Syrian crisis began. At one point, the conflict between rebels and government troops in the suburbs of Douma, Jobar, Arbeen and Qaboun – where a helicopter was shot down – became so loud that even the most phlegmatic of Foreign Ministers in a region plagued by rhetoric glanced towards the window. How did he feel when he heard this, I asked him?

"Before I am a minister, I am a Syrian citizen, and I feel sad at seeing what's happening in Syria, compared with two years ago," he said. "There are many Syrians like me – eager to see Syria return to the old days when we were proud of our security."

I have my doubts about how many Syrians want a return to "the old days" but Muallem claims that perhaps 60 per cent of the country's violence comes from abroad, from Turkey, from Qatar and Saudi Arabia, with the United States exercising its influence over all others.

"When the Americans say, 'We are supplying the opposition with sophisticated instruments of telecommunications', isn't this part of a military effort, when they supply the opposition with $25m – and much more from the Gulf and Saudi Arabia?"

A year ago, I told Muallem, I lunched with the Emir of Qatar, and he was enraged at what he called Bashar al-Assad's lies, claiming that the Syrian President had reneged on a deal to allow Muslim Brotherhood members to return home.

Muallem nodded. "If you met the same Emir two years ago, he was praising Assad, and considered him a dear friend. They used to have family relations, spending family holidays in Damascus and sometimes in Doha. There is an important question: what happened? I met the Emir in Doha in, I think, November 2011, when the Arab League started their initiative [resulting in the sending of League observers to Syria] and we reached agreement … The Emir told me: 'If you agree to this initiative, I will change the attitude of Al Jazeera and I will tell [Sheikh] Qaradawi [a popular prelate with a regular slot on the television chain] to support Syria and reconciliation, and I have put down some billions of dollars to rebuild Syria…' .

"At the same time, when I was waiting to enter a meeting, there was the head of the Tunisian party Ennahda and the Emir issued orders to pay Ennahda $150m to help his party in the elections. Anyway, this was their business. But I asked the Emir: 'You were having very close relations with Muammar Gaddafi and you were the only leader in his palace when Gaddafi hosted you during the summit – so why are you sending your aircraft to attack Libya and be part of Nato?' The Emir said simply: 'Because we don't want to lose our momentum in Tunis and Egypt – and Gaddafi was responsible for dividing Sudan'."

Of America's power, Walid Muallem had no doubt. The Americans, he says, succeeded in frightening the Gulf countries about Iran's nuclear capabilities, persuaded them to buy arms from the US, fulfilling Franklin Roosevelt's 1936 dream of maintaining bases for oil transportation.

"We believe that the US is the major player against Syria and the rest are its instruments." But wasn't this all really about Iran? I asked, a dodgy question since it suggested a secondary role for Syria in its own tragedy. And when Muallem referred to the Brookings Institution, I groaned.

"You are laughing, but sometimes when you are Foreign Minister, you are obliged to read these things – and there was a study by the Brookings Institute [sic] called The Road to Tehran, and the result of this study was: if you want to contain Iran, you must start with Damascus…

"We were told by some Western envoy at the beginning of this crisis that relations between Syria and Iran, Syria and Hezbollah, Syria and Hamas are the major elements behind this crisis. If we settle this issue, they [the Americans] will help end the crisis. But no one told us why it is forbidden for Syria to have relations with Iran when most if not all the Gulf countries have very important relations with Iran."

For the Syrian Foreign Minister, the crisis started with "legitimate demands" subsequently addressed by "legislation and reforms and even a new constitution". Then along came "foreign elements" who used these legitimate demands "to hijack the peaceful agenda of the people".

There followed a familiar tale. "I don't accept as a citizen to return back centuries to a regime which can bring Syria backwards. In principle …no government in the world can accept an armed terrorist group, some of them coming from abroad, controlling streets and villages in the name of 'jihad'."

It was the duty of the Syrian government to "protect" its citizens. Assad represents the unity of Syria and all Syrians must participate in creating a new future for Syria. If Syria falls, its neighbour countries will fall. Muallem travels to the non-aligned summit in Iran tomorrow to burnish what he calls their "constructive efforts" to help Syria.

I asked about chemical weapons, of course. If Syria had such weapons, they would never be used against its own people, he said. "We are fighting armed groups inside Aleppo, in the Damascus suburbs, before that in Homs and Idlib and this means fighting within Syrian cities – and our responsibility is to protect our people."

And the infamous Shabiha militia blamed for atrocities in the countryside? Walid Muallem doesn't believe in them. There might be local unarmed people defending their property from armed groups, he says. But pro-regime, paid militiamen? Never. No war crimes charges against the Syrian Foreign Minister, then. But the guns still thunder away outside his windows.
inShare1

[shyamd]

Bandar still alive, insiders say

Brent Gardner-Smith
Special to The Aspen Times
Aspen CO Colorado

ASPEN — Prince Bandar bin Sultan, chief of Saudi Arabia's intelligence agency and still an Aspen property owner, is apparently alive and well despite rumors in early August that he had been assassinated in an explosion.

A spokesman for the U.S. State Department on Wednesday said recent stories reporting that Bandar, 63, had been killed were not true.

David Ottaway, who retired from the Washington Post in 2006 after 30 years of covering Saudi Arabia, also says the stories were false.

“If Bandar had died, the government would have announced it,” Ottaway said. “It would not be possible to hide such a death, even in Saudi Arabia. I do not believe he has died, but I have not seen him in public since he took his new job.”

Ottaway is the author of the 2008 book “The King's Messenger: Prince Bandar bin Sultan and America's Tangled Relationship with Saudi Arabia.”

“The Iranians are constantly putting out stories through their agents of some mishap about Bandar that have been all false so far,” Ottaway wrote Thursday in response to an email query.

Additionally, David Ignatius, a veteran foreign-affairs columnist with the Washington Post, reported on Aug. 5 that the rumors of Bandar's death were false.

This week, Ignatius confirmed that his source on Bandar was solid.

“Yes, before I wrote my piece on Aug. 5, I talked with a source who confirmed, based on personal knowledge, Prince Bandar had been in regular phone contact with foreign officials that week to discuss intelligence matters,” Ignatius wrote in response to an email query.

Further evidence of Bandar's continued existence also came on Aug. 14, when the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement that noted that Bandar was in attendance at the Islamic Solidarity Summit being held in Mecca.

And on Aug. 15, the Qatar News Agency reported that Bandar had escorted the emir of Qatar to the airport in Jeddah after the first day of the summit.

Bandar, who served as Saudi ambassador to the U.S. from 1983 to 2005, built a lavish estate in Aspen in 1991.

In June, he sold his main home and another nearby residence in the Starwood neighborhood to hedge-fund billionaire John Paulson for $49 million. In 2007, Bandar sold another Starwood home for $36 million.

But Bandar owned four homes in Starwood, and he still owns a relatively modest 5,200-square-foot home valued at $5.2 million by the Pitkin County assessor.

The home is listed as being owned by Bricol NV, an entity controlled by Bandar and managed by attorney William Jordan III, who did not respond to a request for comment.

After several years of keeping a low profile, Bandar suddenly made international headlines in the past five weeks and became the subject of wide speculation, perhaps as the result of a deliberate misinformation campaign.

The tale starts on July 18, when a suicide bomber was able to detonate an explosion at Syria's National Security Headquarters in Damascus, killing the Syrian defense minister and the deputy defense minister, who was also President Bashar Assad's brother-in-law. The Free Syrian Army claimed responsibility.

The next day, July 19, Bandar, already secretary general of the Saudi National Security Council, also was named chief of intelligence by King Abdullah.

That prompted speculation by some media outlets that Bandar's additional intelligence role was a reward for the Syrian bombing. The Saudis have urged military intervention in the Syrian conflict against the Assad regime.

On July 22, Iran's English-language Press TV ran a story headlined “Blast hits Saudi intelligence building, killing deputy spy chief.”

The Press TV story said Bandar's deputy had been killed. The Iranian story said that Yemen's al-Fajr Press had quoted eyewitnesses to the bombing, which has not been reported in the Western media.

On July 29, the website of the Voltaire Network, a pro-Syrian nonprofit organization, upped the ante and ran a story headlined “Syria reportedly eliminated Bandar bin Sultan in retaliation for Damascus bombing.”

“Though not yet announced by the Saudi authorities, the death of Prince Bandar bin Sultan bin Abdulaziz Al Saud has been confirmed to Voltaire Network by unofficial sources,” the story claimed.

The next day, the Voltaire Network appeared to walk the story back a notch.

“Strangely, Saudi authorities have not responded to inquiries by the media, refusing to confirm or deny the death of their newly appointed chief of the intelligence services. Clearly, regardless of whether the prince is dead or alive, such muteness denotes a serious disarray within the Saudi royal family,” an article stated.

But by then, the rumor of Bandar's death was off to the races.

On July 31, The International Business Times News ran a story with the headline “Prince Bandar bin Sultan: Is the Saudi spy chief dead or alive?”

The same day, Iran's Press TV ran a report titled “Saudi spy chief Prince Bandar assassinated, report says” and cited the Voltaire Network as the source.

The managing editor of The Aspen Times noticed the stories and ran a short column on Aug. 1 labeled “commentary” about the rumors of Bandar's death.

The next day, the Times published a second commentary on the “Bandar mystery,” admitting the paper was “utterly clueless on this one.”

Iran's Press TV saw the Times commentaries, and an Iranian television host noted during an interview on Aug. 4 that “We've also got the local paper in Aspen, Colo., wondering what is the fate of one of their famous residents, Prince Bandar of Saudi Arabia, who owns a condo in Aspen, who hasn't been seen for the last week or two. There are reports that he succumbed to an attack on his headquarters.”

But the same day, some push-back on the rumor came from Saudi Arabia.

A piece by Ali Bluwi in Arab News — said to be aligned with the Saudi royal family — denounced the rumors of Bandar's death Aug. 4 as “Iranian and Syrian propaganda.”

The article said the source of the rumors was the man behind the Voltaire Network, Thierry Meyssan.

“Usually there is a lot of fabricated news about personalities of Bandar's caliber, and that has been the case now,” the article stated.

The next day, the Voltaire Network acknowledged the Aug. 4 story in Arab News.

“Taking note of the information relayed by Arab News on the activities of Prince Bandar, Voltaire Network wishes him a speedy recovery and expressed the hope that no formal commitments will crop up to interfere with his convalescence,” a story on Voltairenet.org said.

Also on Aug. 5, Post columnist Ignatius wrote that the rumor of Bandar's death “was rebutted Friday by a source who said that Bandar had been in telephone contact with non-Saudis.”

Then came the official statements from the Saudi and Qatar governments placing Bandar in Mecca and Jeddah in mid-August.

Since then, the speculation about Bandar's death has quieted, but there have been no stories confirming that he is, in fact, alive.

Wednesday's statement from a State Department spokesperson appears to be the first acknowledgment from a U.S. official that the reports earlier this month of Bandar's death were in fact false.

Aspen Journalism is an independent nonprofit news organization. More at http://www.aspenjournalism.org

tehran times who were one of the first to report his death are now writing articles about him again .

[pentaiah]

He is alive but in coma according to unnamed sources

[AbhiJ]

How Soviet Invasion Threat Forced Israel to Cease Fire in 1967 War

New evidence reveals that during the 1967 Six-Day War the Soviet Union set in motion military operations to assist Egypt and especially Syria, first in seeking to overcome Israel and then in response to Israel’s pre-emptive attack. These potential steps included a naval landing, airborne reinforcement and air support for ground operations. Action was aborted at the last minute due, among other factors, to a firm US response and dissension among Soviet leaders in Moscow.

McNamara refuses to this day to discuss the still-controversial USS Liberty incident, and dismisses the ironic possibility that Israel’s attack on the intelligence ship prevented an early warning of the Soviet action. The Liberty, a U.S. navy intelligence-gathering ship, had taken Russian and Arabic-speaking experts on board and according to survivors among its crew was deployed to monitor Soviet activities.(61) Israel's initial explanation for its attack on the Liberty was the appearance on Israeli radar screens of “a large number of blips approaching...from the west that might have indicated an all-out Egyptian naval attack.…Later it was established that the blips...had been echoes from unusual cloud formations.”(62) Or was this the Soviet flotilla?

At the White House, Thompson “was impressed how much greater Soviet sensibility there was to the plight of the Syrians than to that of the Egyptians. At the time, the Syrians were the apple of the Russians’ eye.”(70) In Tel Aviv on June 8, a West German diplomat passed on to his American counterpart the warning by Chuvakhin two days earlier, now adding the interpretation of "this threat to mean that USSR might take more direct action against Israel if [its army] now proceeds completely [to] destroy Syrian armed forces causing [the] Soviet-supported regime there to fall.”(71) Barbour cabled Washington the information, and the secret dispatch was “passed to secretary of state and White House” immediately but, like the other intimations of a Soviet intervention this one, too, does not appear to have been relayed to the Situation Room.(72)

[shyamd]

In preparation for the fall of Asad, The message that Hezbollah will begin to convey in coming weeks is that the civil war is no longer a fight for the regime’s survival, but for the territorial integrity of Syria, to prevent it from being carved into Alawite, Kurdish and Sunni zones. Thats the line Iran etc will be pushing too.

[RamaY]

ShyamD ji,

Can you pls ask your GCC source a question on my behalf?

Why don't they give citizenship to their fellow Muslim brothern from turd world countries like Bangladesh and Pakistan, something similar to Israel? Perhaps that would make them undisputed leaders of Ummah.

[shyamd]

They have already but only for people that have skills they require - same as the western world.

You know there is an IM in the Saudi cabinet since the 70s?

[Mahendra]

Ermmm, the western world gives citizenship based on the skills they require? That statement is only 50% accurate.

[RamaY]

Don;t about other worthis in GCC but came across this regarding KSA

Children of foreigners born in Saudi Arabia don’t have rights of local citizenship and automatically assume the nationality of the parents. I

Wonder how it fits into the citizenship laws of other nations, for example would a child born in KSA to Indian parents get Indian citizenship or he becomes a true alien?

[pentaiah]

In kingdoms you only have subjects not citizens

[Philip]

The investigation of the alleged murder of Arafat will bring out even more sensational conspiracy theories.However,if it is true that there was "polonium" in his system,a link to the murder of Russian defector Litvinenko may also be a strong possibility as he was killed the same way.The Brits accuse the Russians who in turn accuse billionaire oligarchs safe in their UK "safe house" of actually doing the deed in choots wuith British intel. to smear Putin.

Yasser Arafat 'murder investigation launched’
French prosecutors have opened a murder inquiry into Yasser Arafat’s death near Paris, it has been claimed.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... nched.html

28 Aug 2012

The French news agency AFP reported that prosecutors had agreed to begin an investigation, after Arafat’s family launched legal action in France last month over claims the veteran Palestinian leader died of radioactive polonium poisoning.

“A judicial murder inquiry has been opened, as expected following the complaint from Mrs. Arafat,” a source close to the matter told AFP.

Arafat’s widow Suha and his daughter Zawra lodged a murder complaint on July 31 in the Paris suburb of Nanterre.

Arafat died at a military hospital near Paris in 2004.

Allegations that the Nobel Peace Prize laureate was poisoned were resurrected last month after the Al-Jazeera news channel broadcast an investigation in which experts said they found high levels of polonium on his personal effects.
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Polonium is a highly toxic substance which is rarely found outside military and scientific circles, and was used to kill former Russian spy turned Kremlin critic Alexander Litvinenko, who died in London in 2006 shortly after drinking tea laced with the poison.

The widow and daughter of Yasser Arafat have said they are "happy" at the decision.

"The Nanterre prosecutor's office has just officially opened a judicial enquiry following a complaint lodged by Mrs Souha Arafat and her daughter on July 31, 2012. The family and their lawyers are happy at the decision," said Pierre-Olivier Sur in a statement.

A Swiss radiology lab at the Lausanne University Hospital Centre said on Friday it has received Suha Arafat’s go-ahead to test his remains for poisoning by polonium.

Arafat, who led the struggle for Palestinian statehood for nearly four decades, died in a French military hospital after being airlifted there for treatment from his Ramallah headquarters.

At the time of his death, Palestinian officials alleged he had been poisoned by long-time foe Israel, but an inconclusive Palestinian investigation in 2005 ruled out poisoning, as well as cancer and Aids.

Israel has consistently denied the allegations, accusing Suha Arafat and Palestinian officials of covering up the real reasons for the former leader’s death.

The Palestinian Authority welcomed the decision to open an inquiry.

“We welcome this decision and (Palestinian) President Mahmoud Abbas has officially asked French President Francois Hollande to help us to investigate the circumstances of the martyrdom of late President Arafat,” senior Palestinian official Saeb Erakat said.

Mr Erakat expressed hope that “we will reach the full truth on Arafat’s death and who stands behind it.”

[Philip]

More details about the Arafat investigation.

France opens murder inquiry into Arafat's death

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 84734.html

France opens murder inquiry into Arafat's death

Family called for investigation after traces of poison found on his clothes
Paris

Wednesday 29 August 2012

French prosecutors yesterday opened a murder investigation into the death of the veteran Palestinian leader, Yasser Arafat, who died in a military hospital near Paris in 2004.

The investigation follows a formal complaint by Mr Arafat's widow after the discovery last month by a laboratory in Switzerland of substantial traces of the deadly poison polonium-210 on the Palestinian leader's clothes.

Mr Arafat was said to have died of cirrhosis of the liver but his medical files have never been released by France. Conspiracy theories suggesting that he was murdered by Israeli intelligence or other enemies have swirled around the Middle East for the last eight years.

Samples of the clothes that he wore just before he was taken ill were sent to a laboratory in Lausanne earlier this year by the TV station Al Jazeera, with the co-operation of his widow and daughter. In early July, the laboratory, announced that it had detected significant traces of polonium-210, the substance used to poison the Russian dissident Alexander Litvinenko in London in 2006.

As a result, Mr Arafat's widow, Souha, made a formal complaint in France earlier this month. The state prosecution service in Nanterre, west of Paris, decided that there were sufficient grounds to open a criminal investigation for murder. One or more investigative magistrates will now be appointed to pursue the inquiry.

The Palestinian authority gave permission earlier this month for Mr Arafat's body to be exhumed. Tests on his remains will be carried out by the same laboratory, the Institut de Radiophysique in Lausanne.

Mr Arafat, 75, was taken abruptly ill, with piercing pains in his lower body, in Ramallah in Palestine in November 2004. He lapsed into a coma and died several days later in the French military hospital at Percy near Paris after the then French President Jacques Chirac had offered France's medical help.

Souha Arafat and her daughter, Zahwa, have called for the findings of the Swiss laboratory to be made available to French investigators as part of a "properly constituted judicial investigation". Souha Arafat has also called on French authorities to release Mr Arafat's medical files.

There have long been Palestinian suspicions that the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad assassinated Mr Arafat. The Institut de Radiophysique in Lausanne found that a urine stain in the Palestinian leader's underwear registered 180 millibecquerels of polonium-210 – over 20 times the dose needed to kill.

Some of Mr Arfat's symptoms, such as vomiting and cirrhosis, are the same as those from poisoning by polonium-210. At the time of Mr Litvinenko's assassination in 2006, British investigators said that only a sophisticated operation by a state intelligence agency could obtain and use polonium-210 in a lethal form.

Under French law, it will be up to an investigating magistrate to decide whether firm evidence exists that Mr Arafat was murdered. If they find such evidence, they will recommend that the state prosecution service brings charges.

As leader of the militant Fatah movement, and then the Palestinian Liberation Organisation, Mr Arafat was the most visible face of Palestinian resistance for decades. He represented Palestine at the Oslo peace talks in 1993 and received a share of the Nobel Prize in 1994.