West Asia News and Discussions

[nakul]

Russia helps U.S., Syria establish contact, Turkey in shock

Addressing the American media on Thursday, Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov dropped a bombshell. He said that Moscow had helped the American experts to establish contact with the Syrians on the subject of chemical weapons. “I hope I won’t disclose any big secret, but we have helped American experts establish contact with the Syrians on this issue, and we have received explanations and assurances that the Syrian government is guarding these facilities in the best possible way,” said Mr. Lavrov, as reported by Russia Today.

He also added that Russia was not considering granting asylum to Syrian President Bashar Al Assad, in case he decided to quit office.

“No, we won’t grant him asylum,” Mr. Lavrov said, pointing out that the Syrian President “was a friend of other countries northwest of Syria. ”

Lebanon’s Al Manar television website quoted its Arab sources in France as confirming that the U.S. delegation at the U.N. General Assembly annual session wanted to discuss with Syria, the issue of chemical weapons. The Syrian side pledged “with a Russian guarantee” that it would not use these weapons “inside Syria during the conflict between the government and the militant opposition”. However, the Syrian delegation was emphatic in stating that in case Syria was subjected to a foreign attack, in that case countries involved in inciting and participating in that attack would be legitimate targets “for the Syrian rockets… loaded with chemical warheads, including countries neighbouring Syria”.

[Surya]

I said in March/April last year that Syria was next.

you say a lot of things (said by a lot of people around). Throw a lot of shit - something will stick


we are still waiting for Turkey to invade. red lines have been drawn so many times.

oh but the spin will be its now longer needed

I wonder if Israel goes overt with its program the US would introduce automatic sanctions

[/quote]

Rules and laws will be changed but this will not happen

[krisna]

Outbreak of virus in SARS family has WHO on alert

The World Health Organization is keeping a close eye on a disease outbreak in Saudi Arabia caused by a virus in the same family as the one that caused SARS.

There have been two confirmed infections with the new coronavirus and tests results are pending on a third suspected case, according to media reports from the Middle East. Two of those three people have died.

Still, with pilgrims beginning to gather in Saudi Arabia for next month's Hajj, the public health community is on alert.

The WHO statement said work done in Britain to compare the two viruses also showed they were 99.5 per cent alike.

The WHO is not recommending any travel restrictions at this time.

This year's Hajj is expected to take place between Oct. 24 and 29, but according to the Saudi Arabian government's Ministry of Hajj website, the first day for pilgrims to begin to arrive in the Kingdom was Sept. 17.

The annual Islamic pilgrimage draws hundreds of thousands to the Saudi city of Mecca. The Hajj is one of several large global events — the Olympics are another — that are a constant source of concern for public health officials because of their capacity to spread diseases to many parts of the globe.

This to be kept in mind along with other WANA events.

[shyamd]

you say a lot of things (said by a lot of people around). Throw a lot of shit - something will stick

Ahh here comes the hater who has nothing to add. Yes, specifically I said Syria will be next. Can you show me where I said anything different?

[Austin]

Rules and laws will be changed but this will not happen

Never say Never ever

Israel attitude towards Iran is very interesting compared to the way they treated Iraq and Syria .....in Iraq they bombed the reactor just before it was suppose to go operational and in Syria they did it when they suspected a nuclear facility under construction at an early stage.

But when it come to Iran there are just talks and more talks , the statement that we would attack Iran must have been mentioned by tens of times by Israel in past 5 year and now the PM at UN shows some chart and some red line that needs to be drawn.

If Israel was really serious about Iran Nuclear program they would have attacked the facility may be a decade back or some where in between ....I think Israel reaction suggest Iran weapons program is fait accompli and the thinking would be how to manage the fall out and justify its own program going overt.

Wonder if Iran goes nuclear and then Israel what will Saudi do they dont even have a Nuclear reactor to get the basic component which mean they will have to outright import a device from Paki brothers.

I guess Obama being the honest Muslim that he is , is doing his due in getting Iran get there

Crisis in Israeli-US relations

[Surya]

Ahh here comes the hater who has nothing to add.

yawnnnnn - yeah we are haters

what to do - not all of us are able to sit at the hallowed feet of the GCC superpowers



Austin

i think Israel has not yet given up - it would suit it to have the US attack Iran no matter whether it makes sense or not.

Even if it only causes a delay the Isaelis are quite happy -

most of the cost will be borne by the US anyway one way or the other

[Austin]

i think Israel has not yet given up - it would suit it to have the US attack Iran no matter whether it makes sense or not.

Even if it only causes a delay the Isaelis are quite happy

Could this be the case of too little too late ? Time will answer.

Some consequences of such an attack

How Many Civilians Would Be Killed in an Attack on Iran’s Nuclear Sites?

The Economics Of Attacking Iran

[pentaiah]

The crisis is not about Irans nuclear bomb arrival or existence.
The crisis is about Israel not coming to terms with reality that is Israel can not dictate terms for ever as it is used to now.

The introduction jihadis to beat back SU in Afghanistan Ina's enabled and emboldened the terrorist and militant Islam. For a while Israel played on with this route extracted the full benefit of being victim of Islamic terror and prospered while crushing it temporarily in its vicinity.

Now this Islamic terror empowerment has grown into a monster that can not be tamed by liberal democracy notions and rules.

If indeed Israel goes ahed and takes a shot at preemptive strike even if it is partially succeful Iran will bounce back with no shackle to any international laws and go full speed ahead to cover the ground.

If on the other hand Israel waits Iran will go at its speed of comfort towards making the bum anyway.

Uncle will not be a collateral party to any premature attack, as some expert on TV said the US is not threatened directly by Irans bum like Israel is.

So for Israel discretion is the better part of valor and continue to sabotage the program with its omni Potent Mossad ( as frequently touted). Israel has to focus on divide and rule the Arabs like the cunning British did. Make peace with Palestanians and no more expansions as any expansion will have to involve expulsion of Muslim population or else it will make Jews prisoners in their own land due higher number non Jewish Palestanians Christians and Muslim.

Complet out of the box thinking is required on the part of Israelis which is rooted in the new realities

[Lilo]

ShyamD ji,

I remember from one of your posts that India and Qatar are negotiating some "strategic" agreement - security guarantee in exchange for Qatari LNG ...

How does the above fit with the fact that Qatar is egging on Islamists - like in Syria and MB ?

Doesnt this mean that there is an obvious ideological mismatch
- or is it just a mutually convenient arrangement notwithstanding ideological differences ?

[devesh]

if Iran gets the bomb, the West fears that it will unleash too many variables for it to control. also for Israel, their paranoia is that somewhere in some deep corner of their hearts, when the Ayatollahs and Ahmadinejad talk about "wiping off the planet", they really do believe that it is possible. Israel is not so much trying to stop the nuclearization as it is the psychological "advantage" that it believes the Iranian mullahs will derive with the nuke. even if they are insane, if the Mullahs put to test a real "final solution" against Israel, Israel has much to loose. of course, the retaliation on Iran will be tremendous. but Israel is too small to find that comforting. the damage of the bomb is enough to cripple them to the extent that they will easily be run over by the barbarian hordes that surround them.

for the West, it is about CONTROLLING THE VARIABLES, more so than protecting Israel. Israel is just an excuse for them.

what does this mean for India? if Iran gets the bomb, Turkey and Saudi Barbaria will follow quickly. in the future, how does this effect the political calculus of any Indian attempts at consolidation? will Iran find it useful to threaten "nuclear" option if we try to enter Af-Pak seriously?

I don't think Iran will sit quiet and let us enter their backyard without a fight.

[pentaiah]

Simple read history no monopoly lasts for ever, even natural resources monopoly does not last supplements will be found, take rubber ( then synthetic rubber) and manufacture Ammonia ( haber's process).

So the monopoly of few players possessing nukes is bound to come to an end. we are seeing the day fast approaching no matter how many resent or how many want to prevent. A complete basket case like NoKo can produce nukes and missiles means, Iran can easily do it and others will buy from Walmart of Nukes head quartered in Islam aha bad

[eklavya]

ShyamD ji,

I remember from one of your posts that India and Qatar are negotiating some "strategic" agreement - security guarantee in exchange for Qatari LNG ...

How does the above fit with the fact that Qatar is egging on Islamists - like in Syria and MB ?

Doesnt this mean that there is an obvious ideological mismatch
- or is it just a mutually convenient arrangement notwithstanding ideological differences ?

All in ShyamD's well-fed imagination. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar is the most important US Air Force base in the Middle East. Why would India need to get involved with a country like this.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Udeid_Air_Base

India does not / cannot provide secret security guarantees, and there has never been any discussions in India of extending protection to the degenerate Qatari dictator.

As per The Economist:

Flying-carpet diplomacy

American Congressmen say he is a friend on Monday and sends money to extremists on Tuesday.

He is determined to transform Doha, his capital, and will host a Taliban liaison office as well as the 2022 football world cup. Great gas wealth has allowed the rotund leader of the al-Thani dynasty, Qatar's rulers for two centuries, to amass extraordinary clout.

Check out this photo:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... Obamas.jpg

Looks like he ties his neck-tie on his chin

[ramana]

That guy is SDRE.

[JE Menon]

Guys we have all kinds of agreements with the various gcc states that are totally under the radar ...

We have vast strategic interests there. We will be very very careful how we play in that area. Serious,long term shite.

Read between the lines on that.

Having said that no effing way we are going to hold back on our ties with Israel. Dont take media reportage at face value too much on this. It is not either or and no one is going to make us choose sides and stuff. Moral considerations are not really in the picture and even if they were who is going to argue the anti-Israel case ?

[pentaiah]

Any resemblance ?
Check out this photo:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... Obamas.jpg

[shyamd]

Ahh here comes the hater who has nothing to add.

yawnnnnn - yeah we are haters

what to do - not all of us are able to sit at the hallowed feet of the GCC superpowers

Lol... No correction you are the hater - dont try and deflect it to others. at least others have something constructive to say. You are clearly showing nothing but hatred.

[brihaspati]

surya ji,
you have to know how to express hatred without appearing to, by selecting news items that bash or tar the side you hate. Keep silent on any news item that tars the side you love passionately. Then you can lol others too.
[edited : apologies for error]

[shyamd]

ShyamD ji,

I remember from one of your posts that India and Qatar are negotiating some "strategic" agreement - security guarantee in exchange for Qatari LNG ...

How does the above fit with the fact that Qatar is egging on Islamists - like in Syria and MB ?

Doesnt this mean that there is an obvious ideological mismatch
- or is it just a mutually convenient arrangement notwithstanding ideological differences ?

Mutually convenient. But there isn't much substance in the relationship for the moment - just more visitors for training in our facilities incl wimmins and other specialist assistance - pilots, some naval stuff (particularly retired IN guys), intel exchange on extremists.

Qatari leadership have their fair share of enemies for the stuff they are doing - eg. backing the MB. He has had a fair share of coup attempts already (backed by neighbours).

Access to LNG is extremely tight for us and they have agreed (much to the dismay of their neighbours/Birathers who bitch about it) to give us more access to LNG but don't think the strategic deal is linked to LNG.

Oman is the only country who we have a mil relationship of some substance.

[pentaiah]

BJi Saar ji you are again confusing between suryag and surya ji Saar ji

They are different Surya ji Saar has been on BRF since 1998 if I recall correctly
And is very learned person in military affairs

[brihaspati]

BJi Saar ji you are again confusing between suryag and surya ji Saar ji

They are different Surya ji Saar has been on BRF since 1998 if I recall correctly
And is very learned person in military affairs

Thanks for pointing out!

[shyamd]

All in ShyamD's well-fed imagination. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar is the most important US Air Force base in the Middle East. Why would India need to get involved with a country like this.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Udeid_Air_Base

India does not / cannot provide secret security guarantees, and there has never been any discussions in India of extending protection to the degenerate Qatari dictator.

What Lilo ji is referring to is - India, Qatar ink key defence cooperation pact from 2008

The reality is that the GCC don't trust the US fully and soo they will take insurance policies out.

[brihaspati]

This is a slightly dated trail - but interesting no doubt: what lies behind Qatari investments anywhere, and the angle that is never told to allay suspicions,

Qatar Financing Wahhabi Islam in France, Italy, Ireland and Spain
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/2833/ ... lam-europe
by Soeren Kern
February 9, 2012 at 5:00 am

Qatar, the most fraudulent "moderate," is "sparing no effort" to spread Wahhabi Islam across "the whole world," discouraging integration, encouraging jihad.

The Persian Gulf Emirate of Qatar says it plans to invest €50 million ($65 million) in French suburbs that are home to hundreds of thousands of disgruntled Muslim immigrants. Qatar says its investment is intended to support small businesses in disadvantaged Muslim neighborhoods. But Qatar, like Saudi Arabia, subscribes to the ultra-conservative Wahhabi sect of Islam, and critics say the emirate's real objective is to peddle its religious ideology among Muslims in France and other parts of Europe.

Qatari Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, who has long cultivated an image as a pro-Western reformist and modernizer, recently vowed to "spare no effort" to spread the fundamentalist teachings of Wahhabi Islam across "the whole world."

The promotion of Islamic extremist ideologies -- particularly Wahhabism, which not only discourages Muslim integration in the West, but actively encourages jihad against non-Muslims -- threatens to further radicalize Muslim immigrants in France, analysts say. The Qatari investments are being targeted in blighted French suburban slums known in France as banlieues, where up to one million or more mostly unemployed Muslim immigrants from North Africa and the Middle East eke out an impoverished existence.

The banlieues are already being exploited by Islamist preachers from countries such as Morocco and Turkey, which are leveraging the social marginalization of Muslim immigrants in France to create "separate Islamic societies" ruled by Islamic Sharia law, according to a recent study which examines the rise of Islam in France.

The 2,200-page report, "Banlieue de la République" (Suburbs of the Republic) -- commissioned by the influential French think tank L'Institut Montaigne, and directed by Gilles Kepel, a well-known specialist on the Muslim world -- describes how Muslim immigrants are increasingly rejecting French values and identity in favor of Islam. The report shows how Sharia law is rapidly displacing French civil law in many parts of suburban Paris and warns that France is on the brink of a major social explosion because of the failure of Muslims to integrate into French society.

France, which has between five and six million Muslims, has the largest Muslim population in the European Union. The study says that Muslim religious institutions and practices are increasingly displacing those of the state and the French Republic, which has a strong secular tradition. Among other findings, the report describes the proliferation of mosques, Koranic schools and makeshift prayer rooms in the banlieues. The religious orientations of these mosques are heavily influenced by the national origin of the founder or president of a given mosque.


[...]
Nabil Ennasri, the president of a Muslim activist group called the Collectif des Musulmans de France (CMF), says Qatar is keen to exert its influence over the Muslims in France. He says: "France has a large Muslim population of Arab heritage, which will one day, whether it is welcome or not, play an important role in French politics. Investing in this population is a way of recruiting supporters who will -- consciously or unconsciously -- further Qatari interests."

[...]
Le Pen also said Qatar was "playing a double game" by presenting itself as an "enlightened" country to Western democracies while at the same time supporting Islamist groups in the Middle East and North Africa. "I say solemnly, the Qataris are financial supporters of Islamic fundamentalists, madmen of Sharia. The French have a right to know that, especially in Libya, the jihadists who are now in power and whose first action was to apply Sharia, were financed and armed by Qatar," she said.

Qatar played a key role in the overthrow of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi's regime in Libya by providing the insurgents with money, weapons and hundreds of troops. But Qatar has also been criticized for undermining Libya's new interim government by continuing to arm militant Islamists. More recently, an army of Wahhabi fighters armed and funded by Qatar has reportedly amassed on the Turkish-Syrian border with the intent of removing Syrian President Bashar Assad from power, presumably with the objective of importing Wahhabi Islam to a post-Assad Syria.

Qatar has also provided aid to Hamas terrorist groups, offered support to the extremist Muslim Brotherhood, and reached out to Omar al-Bashir, the President of Sudan who has been indicted for war crimes in Darfur. Qatar also hosts the controversial Al-Jazeera television network, which includes among its presenters Sheikh Yusuf al-Qaradawi, who has praised suicide bombings and is banned from entering Britain and the United States.

[RoyG]

Shyamd,

Insurance policy? The GCC may not trust the US fully but there isn't much they can do about it. The US protects their theocratic regimes in exchange for dollar denominated oil and investing profits in US securities. This fact is critical to the Fed in maintaining artificially low interest rates.

[RamaY]

I hope people understands what insurance policy means. Imagine India holding up the sh1t of GCC when Unkil squeezes GCC hard.

And the wise call this a strategic relationship.

P.S: Surya ji is jealous that he doesn't have sources. And Pentaiah garu jealous of Surya ji, for he have a good handle name

[ramana]

The Qatari and other GCC sheikhs have long memories when the Portuguese and Brits used to chase them as pirates and they used to take shelter in India's west coast. So that is not forgotten.

They do what they do under guidance

Above is stated by a GCC principal to a desi babu.

[Surya]

thanks brihaspati

problem Is I am not at the feet of the hallowed GCC powers to learn such subtle tactics.


I am a simple man who wants the fireworks of the long promised Turkish invasion

[ramana]

Surya, Maybe its cold Turkey.

[pentaiah]

Dedicated to surya Saar ji a simple man song by Lobo I heard first time in 1978 final year engg
( I owned the LP best of Lobo, now I have on CD)

Where do butterflies go when it rains?
Who goes around & tucks in the trains?
What makes a teddy bear like to sleep?
Why do we all make promises that we can't keep?

Where do puppy dogs go when their sad?
And what do elephants say when their mad?
Who do you tell if you don't have a friend?
Why do we open our mouths and stick our foot in?

These are the things that bother me,
Not a lot of things across some sea,
I don't even have a master plan,
I guess that I am just a simple man.

[Surya]

Haha @ pentaiah

have to check that out.

got to sleep - just back from pandaland

[Austin]

pentaiah , I agree that Israel needs to grow up and understand that they are not at the center of earth.

Mean while new twist in Turkey fighter shoot down incident

Al-Arabiya: New Evidence Links Russia to Turkish Jet Incident

[Austin]

Bahrain protest turns violent

Police in Bahrain used tear gas and stun grenades to break up a demonstration of more than 1,000 Shiites protesting Friday’s killing by a police patrol of a teenage boy. Several demonstrators were injured. Local Interior Ministry officials said the police acted in self-defense.

17-year-old Ali Hussein Nemat was shot and killed for allegedly throwing Molotov cocktails at members of a police patrol.

[Hari Seldon]

Spengler on why the Palestinians are broke (since donors have no money left) and why Egypt is next

Well written. Spicy, pacy read. Wonder when it will be TSP's turn to figure out the donors are really really not going to send more money only.

"No one cares about the Palestinians," I wrote in this space two years ago [1], and since then the world has stopped funding them. As a result, the Palestine Authority is collapsing, comments Khalid Elgindy, a former PA adviser, on the website of the Council on Foreign Relations, about "the wave of Palestinian protests that swept through the Israeli-occupied West Bank this month [and] ... virtually paralyzed life in Palestinian cities, with scenes reminiscent of the first intifada".

The PA can't pay salaries because international donors, including the Gulf States, haven't sent promised aid:

This on Egypt:

The question is: when will the world also grow weary of Egypt? With liquid cash reserves down to a month or two worth of imports in July, Egypt began bouncing checks to oil suppliers in August, and has stopped importing some urgently needed items. The latest shortage to plague the Egyptian economy is infant vaccines.

It's hard to get accurate readings on Egypt's economic free-fall, but according to the country's importers association, the reluctance of banks to provide trade financing to Egyptian firms has cut imports in half since the January 2011 revolution, and now threatens essential food supplies. The government claims to have six months' of wheat stockpiled and recently bought additional supplies, but other staples, including beans, sugar and cooking oil.

Ahmed Shiha, the head of the Cairo Chamber Commerce importers' group, warned earlier this month that Egypt has been living off inventories of key food commodities, according to the Egyptian news site el-balad.com. [5]

After the 2011 revolution, importers stocked up on food out of fear of devaluation. Now they are having trouble obtaining letters of credit to replace their diminishing supplies. Especially vulnerable is Egypt's provision of beans, the biggest staple after bread. High dollar prices and dwindling cash reverses could lead to a 40% reduction in the supply of imported foods, Shiha warned. Egypt imports half its total food consumption.

By its own estimate, Egypt needs $12 billion to get through the next year. Some private estimates quoted by the Egypt Independent put the gap at twice that much. [6] Every few days, the Egyptian government hails another multi-billion-dollar aid package from a foreign donor, but none of these packages appears to entail much ready cash. Qatar deposited $500 million in Egypt's central bank in August, and promised another $1.5 billion, which is yet to appear.

Well, war with the kuffr is always an option to divert the aam abduls into war, booty and blood lust. Tried and tested formula since the 7th century, am told. Let's see where this is going. The population explosion in Muslim countries will have karmic consequences, it seems. Perhaps.

[gunjur]

This article says that it would take some time before turks, saudis, egyptians gather/master all components/tech needed for bomb on their own. So even if these countries esp saudis can purchase (or already have purchased) nuclear bombs, can they come out in open with the information. Israel has a huge advantage even in conventional terms, hence nuclear blackmail will work for them. But for saudis without the high conventional superiority of israel and without an open acknowledgement of "their" nuclear weapons how can they claim deterrence. Even if don't care about world opinion and were they to claim their newly found (and super duper quick) "unofficial deterrence" then how would uncle maintain the facade on non-proliferation. It seems it isn't easy being world policeman.

[shyamd]

Shyamd,

Insurance policy? The GCC may not trust the US fully but there isn't much they can do about it. The US protects their theocratic regimes in exchange for dollar denominated oil and investing profits in US securities. This fact is critical to the Fed in maintaining artificially low interest rates.

And if the US doesn't and then turn a blind eye (cuts a deal with the enemy?) or say sorry we arent going to get involved?

A guarantee is just a piece of paper.

[RoyG]

Shyamd,

Insurance policy? The GCC may not trust the US fully but there isn't much they can do about it. The US protects their theocratic regimes in exchange for dollar denominated oil and investing profits in US securities. This fact is critical to the Fed in maintaining artificially low interest rates.

And if the US doesn't and then turn a blind eye (cuts a deal with the enemy?) or say sorry we arent going to get involved?

A guarantee is just a piece of paper.

Which enemy are you referring to? A guarantee is just a piece of paper depending on the context. Again, the US cannot afford to jeopardize the petrodollar recycling system. It is the only reason why the dollar trade is decreasing at only 1% per annum.

[eklavya]

All in ShyamD's well-fed imagination. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar is the most important US Air Force base in the Middle East. Why would India need to get involved with a country like this.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Udeid_Air_Base

India does not / cannot provide secret security guarantees, and there has never been any discussions in India of extending protection to the degenerate Qatari dictator.

What Lilo ji is referring to is - India, Qatar ink key defence cooperation pact from 2008

The reality is that the GCC don't trust the US fully and soo they will take insurance policies out.

These defence cooperation pacts appear to be cheaper by the dozen, from

i) countries we really do care about and will do 'something' to defend (e.g. fund the Northern Alliance, send in a plane full of special forces):
Bilateral defence cooperation between Afghanistan and India: Defence officials
India, Maldives to step up defence co-operation

to

ii) Countries we really do not / cannot care about in any meaningful sense (and are in no position to help) (this includes sunny Qatar):
India, Thailand work on defence cooperation pact
India inks defence cooperation pact with Mongolia
India-Saudi Arabia to enhance defence cooperation

to

iii) Countries that are a key source of our security threats:
India, China to expand defence cooperation

Now, lets talk about hydrocarbons. The only reason anyone cares about a cr*ppy little place like Qatar with no culture, no landscape, no literature, no music, no science, no art, no history, awful weather, bad food, and ugly girls, is the abundance of hydrocarbons.

Qatar buys its insurance policies in London and Paris, not in New Delhi. Look at the companies that have tens of billions of dollars invested in the Qatar hydrocarbons industry: ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell, Total, and others. If USA, UK and France ditch Qatar, it suggests that something so significant has happened that Qatar's hydrocarbons are no longer important / strategic. In such a situation, India will not have to worry about Qatar sourced LNG either.

[KLNMurthy]

Spengler on why the Palestinians are broke (since donors have no money left) and why Egypt is next
...

In this and other linked articles, this Goldman guy is claiming that Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt-- a grassroots bourgeois-type Sunni outfit--is on its way to align with Iran's Shias against Saudi and Israel, and giving the finger to US aid because they can always govern like North Korea, taking advantage of starvation. There are three problems with this: NoKo has been trying hard to get out of the famine situation, "demanding" dollahs from US and getting yuans from PRC; the peak of its famine situation is over. The second problem is that, if MB is hooking up with Iran, then becoming NoKo isn't the only option for it; it can get some--albeit limited--help from Iran, but there is no evidence that this is happening. Thirdly it also doesn't explain why MB in Syria is fighting against Iran's client Assad.

Anyway, if, despite the above problems, it is still somehow the case that "democratic Sunni" MB in Egypt somehow getting into bed with "democratic Shia" Iran, does it mean that there is some sort of drive in West Asia for Sunni-Shia rapprochement? No such drive is there in TSP, quite the opposite, is that because the TSP jihadi-boys are nothing more than the rent-boys of Saudi?

Can we have some informed analysis / opinion about this?

[Lilo]

What Lilo ji is referring to is - India, Qatar ink key defence cooperation pact from 2008

The reality is that the GCC don't trust the US fully and soo they will take insurance policies out.

Eklavya ji,
To clarify, i was probably referring to the emphasis in this article quoted by ShyamD ji.

The article itself was written by Saurav Jha (who is an ex BRFite - seems like he was chased off from here).

I for one do believe that its entirely possible that GCC sheikhs are at some level jittery these days and are seeking an insurance from future US betrayal. Qatar after all is a tiny state with 3 lakh citizens.
Only thing iam not decided on is whether this is a temporary phase or not.

[eklavya]

^^^^^

Lilo, thanks for the reminder. It is an interesting article. As JEM said, we have long-term strategic interests in the region (energy security, access to Afghanistan, our work with Israel, millions of expats, etc.). As far as I can tell, the biggest threat to any Arab ruler (including GCC) comes from his own public / armed forces / family members (see this). If (and that's a big if) the US ever becomes long-term self-sufficient in oil (they are already there with natural gas, due to shale, etc), I can see them treating the Gulf the way they treat Sub Saharan Africa (i.e. benign neglect; send in documentary maker after civil war / famine / etc). No harm per se in India paying lipservice to "strategic partnership" with these retrograde reactionary nincompoops, as long as it does not involve spilling a single drop of Indian blood.

[shyamd]

Eklavya - read the article - the key bit is the security agreement and what it actually states not the defence pact which is an element of the relationship.

RoyG - Any enemy - Iran or Iraq, but even if they think we will help allows for relationship to improve and whether we help or not is a different matter and will be decided when it happens.
Even in GW1, they asked what makes us want to trust the US? The US could cut a deal with saddam they were afraid of so they bought in extra troops from other countries. They will get assurances despite all the paper and billions of oil deals.

In Bahrain last year for example the US asked Saudi to stop their troops from being sent and also Mubarak was sold out in their eyes. KSA was angry about it. They don't trust the US fully - the US is backing the MB against the rulers there for example