West Asia News and Discussions

[Philip]

The alleged mortar shelling by Syria killing Turks reminds me of another famous WW2 incident,the Venlo Incident,where the Nazis tricked and trapped two Brit agents fooled into believing that there was a plot to kill Hitler.It is quite possible that the Syrian opposition,now on the ropes in most parts of Syria fired the lethal shells in order to provoke the Turks into retaliating and escalating the conflict.The rag-tag Syrian opposition fighters who have many mercenaries in their ranks,are desperate for western/NATO intervention to save their skins.We may see more of these incidents in the future raising the heat.

What is however the most severe pain to the regime are the terrorist bomb attacks targeting buildings belonging to the military/officials of the regime .The same game was played out in Iraq where western agent-provocateurs carried out such bomb attacks.Brit agents allegedly caught in mufti and captured with their bomb kits,where immediately rescued by special forces to avoid the diabolic policy being fully revealed.

[shyamd]

#Syria vice-president is a "man of reason" who could replace #Assad, says #Turkey http://t.co/rcW16WBz

@zaidbenjamin: #BREAKING: Syrian army says al-Hameh and Qussaiya near #Damascus are both secured - State Media #Syria #Assad


Report: Iran pulls elite army unit from Syria in wake of Tehran protests

The Sunday Times cites western intelligence officials as saying that 275 members of elite the Quds Force, aiding Assad's fight against rebels, were flown out last week.

Iran has pulled members of a special forces unit stationed in Syria, the Sunday Times reported, in response to mounting criticism of the costs of Tehran's involvement in the uprising against Syrian President Bashar Assad.

[brihaspati]

Again, you forgot to address my last question: Do you think that Western backing of Sunni extremists in Syria is immoral? Just a yes or no would be sufficient.

This question is not pointed at me but I want to say that immoral things are beneficial to us. We must see whether India benefits from us or not. The Afghan invasion was/is immoral but drove down the Kashmiri insurgency problem. Earlier Libya, now Syria keeps worldwide terror co away from our borders. There are many things that are immoral but karma is a she dog & slowly those who do immoral things like US abusing its power & crumbling, are helping us rise.

Female dogs are quite dignified in their own ways - with far better principles than Islamists. Why equate such incomparables like karma and female dogs?

There is a kind of short-sightedness that looks at extreme short-period projections and optimizes on that basis. This is the type of opportunism often lauded by the political or biz classes that try to justify any and all sorts of pain on others as long as it benefits themselves temporarily.

Most of the time, they manage to destroy not only their own posterity -for whom they were accumulating in the hope of seeing them through seven generations of idle luxury - but also the society from which they had extracted those profits.

Is it that difficult to see the empowerment of Sunni extremists in the process of equipping and legitimizing them and providing them with more territory to politically hold, as promoted by an alliance of oil-connected [and perhaps drugs connected] forces? Yes they are now being held to Syria like bees to nectar - but in the process they are getting strengthened, and once the "Syrian" problem is resolved, they can then be unleashed towards soft targets like India [which would be most hesitant to resist in very hard ways as it might affect internal islamist-alliance electoral equations for the prevalent biz-political oligarchy].

USA and host of other forces strengthened the Talebs during anti-Russia moves, the results of which are pretty obvious to see now. Eliminating Gaddafi was good - because he was too much concentration of power showing a willingness to promote jihad - if opportune - even agianst J&K. Assad had not showed such willingness - even theoretically or rhetorically speaking.

Let us not be so shortsighted as to fail to realize the real processes by which we strengthen Islamists.

[Lisa]

The alleged mortar shelling by Syria killing Turks reminds me of another famous WW2 incident,the Venlo Incident,where the Nazis tricked and trapped two Brit agents fooled into believing that there was a plot to kill Hitler.It is quite possible that the Syrian opposition,now on the ropes in most parts of Syria fired the lethal shells in order to provoke the Turks into retaliating and escalating the conflict.The rag-tag Syrian opposition fighters who have many mercenaries in their ranks,are desperate for western/NATO intervention to save their skins.We may see more of these incidents in the future raising the heat.

What is however the most severe pain to the regime are the terrorist bomb attacks targeting buildings belonging to the military/officials of the regime .The same game was played out in Iraq where western agent-provocateurs carried out such bomb attacks.Brit agents allegedly caught in mufti and captured with their bomb kits,where immediately rescued by special forces to avoid the diabolic policy being fully revealed.

What a wonderful CT. Maybe you care to explain why then the Syrian
Government has officially apologised for an 'alleged' incident, please.

[brihaspati]

The alleged mortar shelling by Syria killing Turks reminds me of another famous WW2 incident,the Venlo Incident,where the Nazis tricked and trapped two Brit agents fooled into believing that there was a plot to kill Hitler.It is quite possible that the Syrian opposition,now on the ropes in most parts of Syria fired the lethal shells in order to provoke the Turks into retaliating and escalating the conflict.The rag-tag Syrian opposition fighters who have many mercenaries in their ranks,are desperate for western/NATO intervention to save their skins.We may see more of these incidents in the future raising the heat.

What is however the most severe pain to the regime are the terrorist bomb attacks targeting buildings belonging to the military/officials of the regime .The same game was played out in Iraq where western agent-provocateurs carried out such bomb attacks.Brit agents allegedly caught in mufti and captured with their bomb kits,where immediately rescued by special forces to avoid the diabolic policy being fully revealed.

What a wonderful CT. Maybe you care to explain why then the Syrian
Government has officially apologised for an 'alleged' incident, please.

It is surprisingly simple onlee. Officially if the Syrian gov wants to claim sovereignty - it has to take formal responsibility for such a shelling coming from their part of the border into another sovereign state - because it is that state's responsibility to see to it that such things do not happen. If it washes its hands off - saying they were non-state actors like the dear Pakis and their patron Brit political establishment often seem to do - then, Assad admits loss of sovereignty [ he is not Paki hence does not have the luxury afforded by British and US patronage].

[pentaiah]

The Afghan invasion was/is immoral but drove down the Kashmiri insurgency problem. Earlier Libya, now Syria keeps worldwide terror co away from our borders. There are many things that are immoral but karma is a she dog & slowly those who do immoral things like US abusing its power & crumbling, are helping us rise.

No body has done us a favor implicit or explicit, and unkil is always aware there is no free lunch.

As it is when the sole super and the international community leaves Afghanistan as some say "tail between their legs" the Sunni Islamist are that much bolden to take the neighbors who are geographically locked to these war hardened terrorists.

That is exactly because in the first place and very short sighted policy devoid of think long term implications was to bring Islamists from Egypt, Saudi Arabia , Yemen , Sudan , Chechnya , train them through Pakis and letting loose in our neighborhood.

Any more garbage of drawing away Islamic terrorists by stoking flames in Syria is the best thing ever happened ( not even mentioned here are all those color revolutions sponsoring and springs of mirages in the desert) is the biggest and a very costly hoax in terms of lives, nations and institutions.

The UN has become collection of garbage collectors for the few...

[nakul]

Female dogs are quite dignified in their own ways - with far better principles than Islamists. Why equate such incomparables like karma and female dogs?

There is a kind of short-sightedness that looks at extreme short-period projections and optimizes on that basis. This is the type of opportunism often lauded by the political or biz classes that try to justify any and all sorts of pain on others as long as it benefits themselves temporarily.

Most of the time, they manage to destroy not only their own posterity -for whom they were accumulating in the hope of seeing them through seven generations of idle luxury - but also the society from which they had extracted those profits.

Is it that difficult to see the empowerment of Sunni extremists in the process of equipping and legitimizing them and providing them with more territory to politically hold, as promoted by an alliance of oil-connected [and perhaps drugs connected] forces? Yes they are now being held to Syria like bees to nectar - but in the process they are getting strengthened, and once the "Syrian" problem is resolved, they can then be unleashed towards soft targets like India [which would be most hesitant to resist in very hard ways as it might affect internal islamist-alliance electoral equations for the prevalent biz-political oligarchy].

USA and host of other forces strengthened the Talebs during anti-Russia moves, the results of which are pretty obvious to see now. Eliminating Gaddafi was good - because he was too much concentration of power showing a willingness to promote jihad - if opportune - even agianst J&K. Assad had not showed such willingness - even theoretically or rhetorically speaking.

Let us not be so shortsighted as to fail to realize the real processes by which we strengthen Islamists.

I hope you are aware of the phrase "Karma is a bitch." There is nothing do with Islam or Islamists in the phrase.

The current danger is Islam + West. An Isalm devoid of west support will be weaker than with it. That is how Israel survives in spite of being surrounded on all sides. If the west weakens while this happens, we will only be left with Islam. It is better to face 1 enemy instead of 2 supporting each other.

[brihaspati]

^^^Very very aware of the phrase. The "bitch" is used in a derogatory sense in western cultures, and is an expression of denigration of women. The connection to dogs for hatred, is firmly with the Islamic - which denigrated Hekate the Graeco-Levantine female goddess represented also by a female dog. Connecting the theory of "karma" as a retributory penalizing mechanism with a term for hating dogs and women - is unacceptable, from Indians.

[nakul]

^^^

Bji, if you are using english, this is bound to happen. I wholeheartedly agree to your suggestion. We should speak / write in Indian languages to avoid this. We have a whole link language thread where people have suggested Indian languages as the primary choice of communication. Ultimately, the world view is shaped by the language we speak. That is why the land under dicussion deserves to be called yavan pradesh. The name alone will clear any doubts about the nature of the thread.

[Surya]

err we are getting OT

[ramana]

Philip,
Nightwatch comments

10/4/2012 Nightwatch

The most important point to bear in mind is that there are no good guys in this situation and no good outcomes for US interests. The real parties in interest are Saudi Arabia and Iran. Syria is the battle ground where the proxies are struggling. Turkey is a bit player attempting to claim a larger leadership role and to prevent a wider Kurdish uprising against Turkey.

The past 18 or so months have shown that the opposition cannot survive without a secure base. Its supporters - the Turks, Saudis and the Western states -- now have a reason to give it that base. The lack of symmetry between a single mortar round and the two days of shelling plus a UN Security Council resolution raises suspicions about who actually fired a mortar into Turkey. This looks like a setup.

If Turkey creates and protects a safe haven for Syrian refugees, as its armed forces now are authorized to do, it also almost automatically creates a base for the opposition. Most of the arms and ammunition flowing to the opposition come through Turkey, according to several news services.

In this hypothesis, elements of the opposition would consolidate in the Turkish safe haven and try to spread southward.

This does not yet signify the start of regional war, but it is a step in that direction. Hezbollah appears to have joined the fighting from Lebanon in the west on behalf of Syria and Turkey has joined the fight from the north on behalf of the opposition.

[shyamd]

Good map from Hurriyet showing rebel brigades by region: http://t.co/b9CtEqOO

: 'Saudi weapons' seen at Syria rebel base: http://t.co/wb4lpr6U

Reuters: Gulf states must tackle Muslim Brotherhood threat: UAE FM @ABZayed http://t.co/SrlwZZ53 | Gulf News report http://t.co/5CRZDPVu

Turkish Military chief of staff visiting army bases near Syrian border area with other generals. They will be in area for a few days.

40 F16s of turkey moved to forward bases

[Philip]

Tx Ramanna,it smacked of a set-up right from the start.Knowing Assad,if he really wanted to burn the Turks he would've used a more lethal "fist". The latest news that another round of mortar fire has hit the Turks to which they've retaliated bears the set-up theory right.If one recalls,many on BR at the start of the Syrian conflict predicted that a safe haven would ultimately have to be formed close to Turkey,to give the mercenaries masquerading as rebels a base from where logistics would be an easy task and to fly a "free flag" in such a zone to prop up a puppet govt.

[shyamd]

Iraq sends crucial fuel oil to Syria

By Lina Saigol in London and Michael Peel, Middle East correspondent
©Reuters
Iraq is quietly shipping vital supplies of fuel oil to Syria in a deal that has triggered concern in Washington and exposes Damascus’s difficulties keeping its economy afloat in the face of a growing civil war and economic sanctions.
Nouri al-Maliki’s Baghdad government agreed in June to supply 720,000 tons of fuel oil to Syria in monthly shipments as part of a one-year, renewable supply contract, according to commercial documents seen by the Financial Times.

In June and July, Baghdad’s oil ministry delivered two shipments of fuel oil, which is used for power generation, worth US$14m in total, to President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Syria paid in cash, the documents show.
While the figures to date are relatively small, the deal highlights the ad hoc efforts Mr Assad’s embattled regime is having to make to keep shortages at bay as the war spreads. It also underlines the more active role Iraq is now playing in the region.
The revelations come a month after US officials complained publicly that Baghdad was allowing aircraft carrying Iranian arms to fly over its territory en route to Syria. A state department official said the fuel shipment did not violate US and EU sanctions but he indicated surprise at Iraq’s involvement.
Iraq abstained from an Arab League vote in 2011 to suspend Syria’s membership and impose sanctions; it has also rejected attempts to bring down the Syrian regime by force, fearing a wider crisis in the region. Iraq’s Shia-dominated government is close to Iran. Tehran is the Syrian regime’s chief Middle Eastern ally.
“Perceptions matter, so we encourage countries trading with Syria to be open about their legal and non-sanctionable exchanges,” a US state department official said. “If this is going to continue, we think the Iraqis should be up front about it.”
The deal showed the Syrian regime was desperate for fuel and was depleting what is left of its hard currency cash reserves to import it, the official added.
The documents show that the state-backed Syria Trading Oil Company (Sytrol), which handles Syria’s fuel imports, agreed to pay cash into an account with the Trade Bank of Iraq before each delivery, or provide an irrevocable letter of credit.
Iraq offered Syria a discount of 50 per cent below the market price, plus a $5 discount per metric ton, according to the contract. Syria paid $505.909 per ton for the fuel, compared with today’s market price of $800 per ton.
Mr Alaa Kidher Kadhum, one of the signatories for Baghdad’s state oil marketing organisation, or SOMO, sits on the board of the Trade Bank of Iraq, according to the documents. Mr Kadhum did not respond to questions from the FT nor did any official from the Iraqi oil ministry. Hoshyar Zebari, the foreign minister, said he did not know of any such deal. Syrian officials also did not comment.
The contract, dated June 28 and written in Arabic on Iraqi oil ministry letterhead, specifies the fuel oil would be loaded in trucks at Iraq’s North Refinery Company, via Syria’s western border.
The EU and the US have had sanctions against Sytrol since 2011, which bar any EU or US company from importing, purchasing or transporting Syrian oil, including refined products. The US imposed fresh sanctions on Sytrol in July 2012, specifically for having provided gasoline to its strategic ally Iran.

#Iraq PM in #Russia for huge arms deal, #Syria agreement: http://t.co/rYGKsNrA @AFP

[RamaY]

Wonder why sources are quite on this topic?

Rji, our guess is right. Looks like our friend Stevens tried to press the militia a little too hard and deep.

http://www.firstpost.com/world/did-anti ... 84451.html

Murdered US ambassador to Libya, Chris Stevens, sent a number of cables to the US, detailing an increasingly volatile situation in Libya, and providing information that hints that the US embassy attack may not have been caused by the anti-Islam film.

Just two days before the 9/11 anniversary attack on the US consulate in Benghazi, Stevens sent a dispatch to Washington, saying that two leaders of the Libyan militias responsible for keeping order in the city had threatened to withdraw their men, saying they would not be able to continue providing security.

The cable was sent on the day he died in the attack, the worst assault on a US diplomatic mission since the 1979 hostage crisis in Iran. The dispatch, which was marked “sensitive” but not “classified,” contained a number of other updates on the chaotic situation on the ground in post-Gaddafi Libya, The Daily Beast reports.

The cable, reviewed by The Daily Beast, recounts how the two militia leaders, Wissam bin Ahmed and Muhammad al-Gharabi, accused the United States of supporting Mahmoud Jibril, the head of the Libyan transitional government, to be the country’s first elected prime minister.

The cable also made no mention of a US-made YouTube video mocking the Prophet Muhammad which was originally thought to have been the motivation for the deadly assault on the consulate later that night, the Daily Mail reported.

This could potentially mean that the attack on the US embassy was actually prompted by the unhappiness of the two militia leaders.

Also, Chris Stevens is said to have disagreed with a State Department decision to pull out a 16-man team of special operations soldiers from Libya, according to this Telegraph report.

Stevens had said that that if if were up to him, the Embassy “would not continue to guarantee security in Benghazi, a critical function they asserted they were currently providing.”

Despite that warning, Stevens did not ask for more US troops, and said that Benghazi officials believed the city was becoming safer.

[shyamd]

Breaking news: PM Netanyahu to announce early elections - end of Jan to early Feb.

-------------
What's happening in Qardaha?

Tony Badran, October 9, 2012 share


A defaced mural showing members of the Assad clan in Syria. The Assads have managed to keep their hold on Syria largely because of communal solidarity with other Alawites, though that bond is weakening. (AFP photo)
Last week, Mohammed Assad, a cousin of President Bashar al-Assad, was shot and critically wounded in Qardaha, hometown of the Assads in the coastal mountains of Syria. For a member of the Assad family to have been attacked in his native village is news enough, but the most intriguing aspect of the event is the identity of the gunman. At the time of the shooting Assad was arguing with representatives of other eminent Alawite families, who are led by the Khayyir clan. Tempers flared, and Mohammad drew his gun—but not quickly enough.

The incident is significant, because it would appear to be the first sign of an open rift among the Alawite elite. Communal solidarity is a major reason why the regime has failed to crack apart, and why Bashar al-Assad has managed to keep his generals in line.

The news of possible anti-Assad stirrings in his ancestral village naturally attracted the interest of the opposition, which fervently hopes that the shooting represented the first stirrings of politically significant Alawite defections from Assad. Syrian opposition sites and social media feeds went abuzz with several accounts of what happened.

Events like these are murky by definition. Reports are hard to source with accuracy, and they vary in details. But all agree that Mohammad Assad, known as the “sheikh of the mountain," is a prominent leader of the shabiha gangs, the notorious Alawite mafia that smuggles and extorts for profit, while also acting as a paramilitary arm of the regime. Assad and his confederates had a brawl with members of the other big clans, which left a number of them dead or wounded.

Credible sources report that the Khayyirs led the other big families in street protests, forcing the hand of the security forces, who cordoned off the village. On Monday, the “coalition of Alawite youth against the Assad regime” reported on a street protest, also led by the Khayyirs, which resulted in another exchange of gunfire and yet more casualties. Tensions continued to rise throughout the week, and the situation does not appear to have been resolved.

While these events seem clear enough, it’s much harder to know how to interpret them. Some Syrian oppositionists viewed the fight, especially at first, as a typical dispute between mafia families – turf and spoils, not high politics. However, other sources, including Alawite activists, are telling a different story. They insist that at the heart of the incident is discontent with Bashar al-Assad’s leadership. The other big clans, they say, denigrated the president’s leadership of the war, and it was this affront that goaded Mohammad al-Assad into pulling his gun.

These sources emphasize that a pall of anxiety has descended on the entire Alawite community. The regime, many feel, has implicated all Alawites in its atrocities. When Assad falls, the community will pay for his crimes with its blood. This anxiety has reached a new level in recent weeks, because the Free Syrian Army has succeeded in making incursions into the coastal mountains, once thought to be an impregnable Alawite stronghold. On Saturday, the rebels announced they were in control of territories just north of Qardaha itself. This advance led the families of the town to fear reprisals for the atrocities committed by Assad’s shabiha.

Fear of Sunni revenge is mixed with resentment against the Assads and their shabiha gangs, who have long tormented the coastal region, Alawites included. As the big families watch their sons in the military return home in coffins, these old intra-communal resentments are taking on new meaning. “Get off our backs already,” Mohammad al-Assad and his thugs were told, according to one account.

The Khayyirs' bitter history with the Assads runs particularly deep. To them, the Assads are peasant upstarts. The Khayyirs are a notable family that boasts of having produced important cultural and religious figures. Following the shooting of Mohammed al-Assad, the story of the late poet, Hassan Khayyir, was circulated. The poet was executed at the hands of Hafez al-Assad in 1979 for criticizing the regime in one of his poems. They say his tongue was cut out – a particularly vengeful torture to a poet.

Mohammad al-Assad may have styled himself as the “sheikh of the mountain,” but the Khayyirs always viewed the Assads as a lowly family that climbed to prominence by sheer force. These resentments were renewed two weeks ago, when the security services abducted veteran dissident Dr. Abdel Aziz Khayyir after he returned from a trip abroad. He remains detained.

One is tempted, therefore, to analyze the events in Qardaha as a direct challenge by the Khayyirs to Assad's leadership. That view is corroborated by an intriguing report, which claims that loyalists of Bashar's notorious uncle Rifaat joined the Khayyirs in protest. Rifaat, who is in exile in Europe, still dreams of a political role in Syria and has even floated himself as an alternative to his nephew. He also took a Khayyir as his fourth wife. But one must be careful before jumping to conclusions. Not only are the facts murky, but, also, the lines between the clans are opaque – precisely because of intermarriage, which all the Assads, not just Rifaat, have used to cement their primacy.

Although last Monday’s street mobilization did not call for Assad’s downfall, the embattled president was not about to tolerate open opposition from big Alawite families. That is why, according to Alawite activists, the regime is intent on setting an example. The shops of the Khayyirs and their confederates have reportedly been burned. And young girls from the Khayyir family are said to have been abducted to “teach the families a lesson.”

Up until now, Assad has been able to rely on the Alawites’ cohesiveness and support. The community has been a bastion of support. But Alawite discontent could well be surfacing under the stress of war and the fear of retribution.

Time will tell whether Assad will be able to maintain communal solidarity.

Tony Badran is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He tweets @AcrossTheBay.

[Mahendra]

One is tempted, therefore, to analyze the events in Qardaha as a direct challenge by the Khayyirs to Assad's leadership. That view is corroborated by an intriguing report, which claims that loyalists of Bashar's notorious uncle Rifaat joined the Khayyirs in protest. Rifaat, who is in exile in Europe, still dreams of a political role in Syria and has even floated himself as an alternative to his nephew. He also took a Khayyir as his fourth wife. But one must be careful before jumping to conclusions. Not only are the facts murky, but, also, the lines between the clans are opaque – precisely because of intermarriage, which all the Assads, not just Rifaat, have used to cement their primacy.

Whatever the temptation to make a GCC wahabi islamopasand analysis and being carefool before jumping to conclusions means! I think I must stick to being nagged by my Khayyiri 4th wipe and hoping that the green flag flies over the red fort

[brihaspati]

Ever increasing defections:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/04/world ... .html?_r=0

ANTAKYA, Turkey — For months, the disparate militias known as the Free Syrian Army relied on defections from the Syrian military to lead a credible if halting challenge to the government of President Bashar al-Assad. Every day seemed to bring word of new recruits. Soldiers fled in packs, or officers stole across a border, lifting the rebels’ morale while swelling their ranks. But now opposition commanders say defections have slowed to a trickle. Some commanders have given up trying to entice defectors, and others have resorted to more desperate measures: cajoling, duping, threatening and even drugging and kidnapping military men to get them to change sides, or at least stay out of the fight. Without defections, they say, the opposition cannot hope to grow, never mind prevail.

“We use means only used by the devil,” said Ahmed Qunatri, a rebel commander in northern Syria who defected from the Republican Guard.

As Syria’s fighting burns into its 19th month, Mr. Assad’s forces have moved effectively to cut off what amounts to the armed rebellion’s most significant resource: soldiers with training and weapons who change sides. In a shift in strategy, the government has preferred to attack towns and neighborhoods from a distance using artillery and air power, preserving its resources and distancing its soldiers from rebel fighters — and from the public, including friends and neighbors, who might encourage defections.

Some rebel commanders now fret that all the soldiers who were inclined to defect already have. The rest remain loyal to the government, or are terrified of betraying it. Others are just suspicious of an armed movement that has found extremists among its ranks. A suicide attack in Aleppo on Wednesday that killed more than 40 people and devastated a government-held district drew widespread anger. Aware of just how much the violence is undermining popular support for the uprising, some rebel groups immediately tried to blame the government for staging the bombing. The government blamed the rebels. By nightfall, Jabhet al-Nusra, an insurgent group affiliated with Al Qaeda, claimed responsibility for the suicide bombings.

Col. Qassem Sa’adeddine, the head of the rebel military council for Homs, said in an interview in Turkey that the government’s close watch, especially at checkpoints, meant “communicating with officers has become much harder.” The colonel said it had also become more difficult to protect the families of defectors — for example, safe houses were harder to come by in neighborhoods depopulated by the government. “The officers are more hesitant these days,” he said. More and more, he said, the rebels used force.

[brihaspati]

http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/14317 ... rces-.html
Syrian Opposition Warns City of Homs Could Fall to al-Assad Forces
Monday, 8 October 2012

Syrian government forces have sent reinforcements to central Homs and could gain complete control of the besieged city, a major opposition group warned Sunday, dpa reported.

"The criminal regime has dispatched extra troops to tighten the inhuman siege of the city," the Syrian National Council said in a brief statement. "Homs' fall will mark a serious turning point in the course of events, subjecting the present and future of Syria as well as the region to great perils."

[krisna]

Since the tunisian man immolated himself, this has triggerred the so called arabian spring.
manipulating the spring has turned into a winter of disconetent in western capitals.
Tunisia dictator fell with little bloodshed.
Egypt a liitle more bloodshed.
Libya more bloody.
Syria is being the bloodiest and most prolonged fight so far of all.


The trend is stark enough.Tunisia egypt and libya have seen a surge of ropers ruling the govts.
Replacing the present dictators with new govts is proving to be a nightmare to western capitals. ROPers are gatecrashing it.

No wonder the western backers are wanting a stalemate likely in syria.

[Virupaksha]

The trend is stark enough.Tunisia egypt and libya have seen a surge of ropers ruling the govts.
Replacing the present dictators with new govts is proving to be a nightmare to western capitals. ROPers are gatecrashing it.

No wonder the western backers are wanting a stalemate likely in syria.

Why do you think they are gatecrashing. It is more a case of "together" rather than "inspite of"

The moment dominoes started, any one with a small iota of knowledge could forecast that the theologists were going to come into power and you think that has not been gamed before the fire was added?

[krisna]

Why do you think they are gatecrashing. It is more a case of "together" rather than "inspite of"

The moment dominoes started, any one with a small iota of knowledge could forecast that the theologists were going to come into power and you think that has not been gamed before the fire was added?

disagree by all means.
friendly advice-- please avoid taking on me. You may not mean it but ...
Both will lose .

[wig]

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/10/world ... l?hpw&_r=0
us troops are in jordan


[/quote]The United States military has secretly sent a task force of more than 150 planners and other specialists to Jordan to help the armed forces there handle a flood of Syrian refugees, prepare for the possibility that Syria will lose control of its chemical weapons and be positioned should the turmoil in Syria expand into a wider conflict. [quote]

[shyamd]

After the sale of weapons by Russia to Iraq - the focus is now going to become how the Gulf can convince the Russians not to alter the balance in the region. Its a good move by Iraq/Iran because this will mean the GCC will have to make some concessions on Syria in return.

--------------------
Turkey warns of 'greater force'
Turkey's military will respond with greater force if shelling from Syria continues to hit its territory, its chief of staff said today, as clashes between the Syrian army and rebels intensified along the border.


SYRIA SENDS EXTRA TROOPS AFTER REBELS 'SEIZE KEY TOWN'

AFP
Updated October 10, 2012, 8:01 pm

AFP © Enlarge photo
BEIRUT (AFP) - Syria's army has rushed extra troops to Idlib after a strategic town in the northwestern province was seized by rebels, cutting off routes to the embattled commercial capital Aleppo, a watchdog said Wednesday.

"Helicopters are overflying the area," said Rami Abdel Rahman, director of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, without elaborating on how many additional troops were on their way to the town of Maaret al-Numan.

The Britain-based Observatory said six civilians were killed in army shelling of Maaret al-Numan on Tuesday, while 12 rebel fighters died in the fight for control of the town.

The Observatory had on Tuesday reported that rebels overran Maaret al-Numan, on the highway linking Damascus with Aleppo, after a fierce 48-hour gunbattle and heavy shelling.

"Regular forces pulled back from all of their checkpoints around Maaret al-Numan, except for one at the entrance of the town," said Abdel Rahman.

"This is a strategic location on the route from Damascus to Aleppo. All the regime reinforcements headed to Aleppo must pass through Maaret al-Numan."

In a video released by activists on Tuesday, about 20 fighters belonging to the Martyrs' Brigade can be seen gathered around a tank at a captured army checkpoint in Maaret al-Numan shooting into the air in celebration.

Maaret al-Numan had originally fallen under rebel control on June 10, but it was retaken by the army in August, said the Observatory.

Aleppo, north of Maaret al-Numan, has been rocked by intense fighting between rebels and regime forces since mid-July and has become the focal point of the conflict ravaging Syria

.

Defecting Syrian propagandist says his job was 'to fabricate'

---------------------------
Hackers targeted Iranian offshore O&G platforms

Iranian Minister Woos India Inc.

By Margherita Stancati

When it comes to Iran, India has pursued a “tightrope” approach: advancing its interests in the country while trying not to upset the U.S., which has been pushing New Delhi to curb its ties with Tehran over Iran’s nuclear program.

Keeping both happy was always going to be difficult. And, as Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s recent trip to Iran revealed, there is plenty of room for awkwardness.

On Wednesday, Geoffrey Pyatt, a senior official at the U.S. State Department, and the Islamic Republic’s power minister, Majid Namjoo, attended back-to-back events hosted by the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry in New Delhi.

Introducing Mr. Namjoo, R.V. Kanoria, the president of FICCI, spoke effusively of India’s longstanding ties with Iran and called for greater cooperation in business. The event was aimed at boosting Iran’s business relations with India in areas including oil and gas exploration, water managements and renewable energy.

Mr. Namjoo, who earlier met officials from India’s ministries of water and renewable energy, was the event’s key guest. In his address, he lashed out against international sanctions, which he called “tyrannical,” and invited countries like India to fill in the space left by Western companies that exited the Iranian market.

“I would like you to look at this as an opportunity,” Mr. Namjoo told a crowd that included several Indian businessmen. He also expressed hope India and Iran could together reshape the existing world order.

Less than an hour after Mr. Namjoo left FICCI, the same venue hosted an event that explored India’s “strategic partnership” with the U.S.

Mr. Pyatt of the State Department spoke at the event’s opening session, which was not open to the press. A U.S. embassy spokesman did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

India’s ties with Iran have been a source of friction between New Delhi and Washington, which wants to isolate Tehran to curb its nuclear activities. Iran says its nuclear program is peaceful.

Under U.S. pressure and fresh sanctions, India has reduced its oil imports from Iran to 9% of its total imports from 12% last year.

One of India’s priorities in its relations with Iran is to pay for the oil it still buys. Sanctions make it difficult for payments to be carried out in dollars so earlier this year the two countries agreed for India to make nearly half its oil payments in rupees. The idea was to set up a barter system: Iran could then use the rupees to import goods from India.

But Indian exports to Iran would need to rise significantly to narrow the existing trade gap: last year, Iranian imports to India made up $13.5 billion of the $15.9 billion in bilateral trade, according to government data.

Wheat is one commodity India is keen to export more of to Iran. But wheat exports alone can only go so far.

The two sides are also exploring the possibility of increasing trade in non-sanctioned goods like pharmaceuticals and medical equipment, an Iranian official said on the sidelines of the FICCI event.

Wheat exports to Iran: Punjab, Haryana's loss could be MPs gain
A team of officials from food ministry is currently in Iran to negotiate a deal to supply 2-3 mn tonnes of wheat annually from India

In what is Punjab and Haryana’s loss could be Madhya Pradesh gain as the government is working on a proposal to export wheat to Iran from states such as Madhya Pradesh where the dreaded ‘karnal bunt’ rust is not present. A team of senior officials from the union food ministry is currently in Iran to negotiate a deal to supply 2-3 million tonnes of wheat annually from India.

The negotiations ran into some problem after Iran expressed concern over presence of ‘karnal bunt’ rust in Indian wheat. Karnal bunt is a fungal disease that deteriorates the quality of wheat. Tuesday, agriculture minister Sharad Pawar accepted the same and said that the government will try and export wheat from areas where ‘Karnal Bunt’ rust is not present and Madhya Pradesh along with neighbouring Rajasthan are few such areas.

India business group visits Iran for 'win-win' trade

On Line: 07 October 2012 15:32
In Print: Monday 08 October 2012


NEW DELHI: An Indian business group said Saturday a delegation was visiting Iran to boost trade with the Islamic republic.

The Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (ASSOCHAM) said the "high-powered" 50-member business delegation was on a four-day visit to Iran to attend the Tehran International Industry Exhibition (TIIE).

Anil Agarwal, chairman of International Affairs Council of ASSOCHAM, called opportunities for trade a "win-win situation" for the two countries.

Iran is a major oil supplier to energy-hungry India, and New Delhi is seeking to increase its exports to Tehran as the West's sanctions campaign dries up payment routes it was using to pay for Iranian fuel imports.

India and Iran have worked out a deal under which New Delhi will pay for a big chunk of its Iranian oil imports in rupees. The rupee payments will be used by Iran to purchase Indian goods.

"Indian industry has huge scope for investments" in Iran in sectors like construction, pharmaceuticals, telecom and textiles, "while Iran can import fertilizers, zinc, copper and iron", Agarwal said.

The visit to Tehran, one in a series of recent commercial exchanges between the two countries, comes as ordinary Iranians struggle with growing economic problems amid the US-led Western sanctions.

Annual trade between India and Iran totals $15 billion and heavily skewed towards Tehran, which exports mainly oil.

India has been walking a diplomatic tightrope as it pursues good ties with the Persian Gulf nation while deepening relations with the United States.

India, a longtime Tehran ally, sharing historical, trading and cultural links, views Iran as an important counterweight to rival Pakistan in the region.

In June, Washington said it would exempt seven emerging economies including India from reprisals after they pledged to cut back on oil purchases from Iran.

India expects to import less than 14 million tons of Iranian crude in 2012-13, below official estimates of 15.5 million tons due to the sanctions, the Economic Times newspaper reported earlier in the week.

By contrast, India imported 21.8 million tons of crude from Iran in 2008-09, the newspaper quoted an unnamed government official as saying.

Iran is keen to increase crude oil sales to New Delhi and is looking at ways to work round Western sanctions, the official added.

[ramana]

phormer Khalifate is getting a bloody nose there

Elaborate in GDF.

[shyamd]

This is the Syrian plane in Ankara Turkey forced to land. pic.twitter.com/DxRrAebH
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30m Mahir Zeynalov Mahir Zeynalov ‏@MahirZeynalov

Turkish FM Davutoglu: I don't think the Syrian plane that we forced to land will significantly harm Turkish-Russian relations.
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31m Mahir Zeynalov Mahir Zeynalov ‏@MahirZeynalov

Turkish FM Davutoglu: Our intelligence on the landed Syrian plane is not hearsay.
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32m Mahir Zeynalov Mahir Zeynalov ‏@MahirZeynalov

Davutoglu: Syria earlier asked to use our airspace to carry arms or troops but we rejected. However, this is the first Syrian civilian plane
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33m Mahir Zeynalov Mahir Zeynalov ‏@MahirZeynalov

Turkish FM Davutoglu: It is not appropriate for me to say what is that "banned material" the Syrian plane was carrying.
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36m Mahir Zeynalov Mahir Zeynalov ‏@MahirZeynalov

Turkish FM Davutoglu: I don't want to unveil where the intelligence came from regarding the Syrian plane suspected of carrying Russian arms.
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38m Mahir Zeynalov Mahir Zeynalov ‏@MahirZeynalov

Turkish FM Davutoglu: According to our intelligence, the Syrian plane was carrying "banned materials."
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1h Mahir Zeynalov Mahir Zeynalov ‏@MahirZeynalov

To avoid reprisal, Turkey asks civilian planes to avoid using Syrian airspace.
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1h Mahir Zeynalov Mahir Zeynalov ‏@MahirZeynalov

Turkey is now inspecting a Syrian plane suspected of carrying Russian arms after it was forced to land in Ankara by Turkish F-16 warplanes.
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2h Mahir Zeynalov Mahir Zeynalov ‏@MahirZeynalov

A civilian Damascus-bound Syrian plane from Moscow, suspected of carrying arms, was forces to land in Ankara by Turkish F-16 jets.

2h Mahir Zeynalov Mahir Zeynalov ‏@MahirZeynalov

Turkey scrambles F-16 warplanes after a Syrian civilian plane enters into Turkey's airspace, forces it to land in Ankara.

[brihaspati]

GCC jai ho! round one goes to Sunni and non-Sunni bootlickers of Sunni jihad.

It is very important to study the whole Sunni jihadi tactics - as rolled out when Sunni states manage the scenes behind. The whole process should be analyzed threadbare, especially because we will have a consistent mindmap of how GCC wants to present itself in the deception phase - through the Sunni perspective within this thread.

They have been constantly needling Assad, to make him react in ways that can be used by the jihadis soourced by GCC. This is a grand experiment at international power projection under overt international legitimacy garb. If it succeeds, this will be what will be applied to non-Sunni non-Muslim neighbourhood pockets around Gulf.

It is a teaching of the founder, and all the core texts of the theology - to pretend alliances and friendship with all "external powers" and isolate one and one only among the non-Muslim entities - at a given time. Any bootlickers from the non-Muslim target can be encouraged to shout about the peaceful intent generally - and grievance onlee against this or that portion of the target as apologetics. Once the single target is eliminated then, repeat the algorithm with one from the remainder - and soon to become ex-friend.

So if the Sauds succeed, this is what will be applied to India. The attempt will first be tried through the Talebs.

[brihaspati]

A different view:
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle ... z28varSlLx

U.N. mediation efforts headed by Algerian diplomat Lakhdar Brahimi are adrift and there is no indication Western pressure on Assad will translate into real military support for Syria's rebel forces. Russia and Iran continue to back Damascus. Supporters of Assad say the government has steadied its nerve after a wave of defections and rebel attacks on strategic government targets since the summer.
[...]
Recent visitors say the 47-year-old president has taken over day-to-day leadership. They speak of a self-confident, combative president convinced he will ultimately win the conflict through military means. "He is no longer a president who depends on his team and directs through his aides. This is a fundamental change in Assad's thinking," said a pro-Syrian Lebanese politician with close ties to Assad. "Now he is involved in directing the battle."

The endgame may have changed too. "Nobody is now talking about the control of the regime over all of Syria, they talk about the ability of the regime to continue." Until recently, the Lebanese politician said, people asked daily who would defect next. But for some time now there had been no significant military defections. "The fighting nerve is steady. The Iranians and the Russians may have helped them. Their ability to manage daily and control the situation has improved." The government has decided to focus its effort on essential areas - the capital Damascus, the second largest city of Aleppo, and the main highways and roads.

Other close observers of the conflict say Assad is deluded if he believes he can prevail. "The problem is the regime lives in its own world. It is clear the people are rejecting this idea - the regime's narrative - that it is a secular regime set upon by extremists, a battle between good and evil and Bashar will one day be vindicated. Bashar is not the victim. He is the cause of the violence," said a Western diplomat. [The West has to detach the slur of jihad from the opposition to Assad - as they did for Kosovo]

The feuding among the opposition and its failure to unite under one command is one factor that has helped Assad to hold on. There is still no serious effort to unify the opposition. Some rebel groups, made up of moderate liberals and Islamist zealots, have clashed with each other militarily, activists say. Their religious and ideological disagreement is displayed in the open on Islamist web sites with individuals trading insults.
[...]
The rebels have so far failed to sustain gains in the face of superior government firepower. They have lost many bases that they had won in the suburbs of Damascus and elsewhere. Frustrated, they seem to have switched tactics to suicide bombings and hit-and-run attacks. "Militarily the regime is more relaxed but from a security position the country is falling apart," said the pro-Syrian politician."An explosion might happen anywhere, an assassination might happen, the situation is chaotic and out of control."
[...]
Hopes for the Brahimi mission are dim given that arms and funds are still flowing to rebel groups, while Assad's forces are still getting Russian and Iranian support. "The Russians and the Iranians are even more robust. They support them with funds and political support and technical expertise," said the Lebanese politician.

Despite a collapse in revenues, a halt in oil sales and tourism income, and a fall in the value of the national currency, the economy has so far avoided meltdown. But this may only be a temporary respite for a government spending heavily on its military campaign. Support from Iran, its own currency collapsing, cannot be relied on indefinitely and the Syrian government's capacity to withstand economic headwinds is diminishing.

"The following five or six months will be essential in the battle and not like the past four or five months that have passed. The Americans would have completed their election, the Russians will have evolved their position and the situation in Iran will have crystallised," the Lebanese politician said.

"Until now, the Arabs have not changed their position, the Americans don't want to be decisive and the Russians haven't seen one factor that makes them back track one iota from their position. For the Russians, the matter is bigger than a naval base in Tartous, they can secure it through negotiations, it is about their role in the region."

In Damascus, shops open during the day but life grinds to a halt by late afternoon, residents say. The government and army have set up roadblocks. They carry out searches of neighbourhoods, they storm houses and arrest activists. There is a sense of despair among residents. Kidnapping on sectarian grounds and also for ransom is rife. In rebel-controlled areas devastated by government firepower, resentment simmers among people who believe the rebels have brought havoc.

Most analysts predict a long battle.[...]Bashar cannot leave easily. There are people tied to him, there are people who fought a battle with him, he cannot abandon them and wash his hands of them," the pro-Syrian politician said.

Observers say, Russia is unlikely to give up its ties to Syria and get out of the Mediterranean. And Iran looks unlikely to abandon its strategic ally. "It is not easy for the nerve centre, the leadership in Iran to abandon or leave Syria because when we say Iran is giving up Syria it means it is getting out of the regional power play which means it will lose a lot of its external influence," said the Lebanese politician.

Yet officials from countries aligned against Assad remain hopeful that there will be a trigger to bring him down. Until then, regional and Western powers are working on measures that need to be in place for a time when Assad is gone to avoid a post-Saddam-style, anarchic power vacuum. "There will be some event which causes the regime to fall. The fall of Damascus, a regime coup, or something else. I can't predict what the trigger will be but the regime will fall," said the Western diplomat.

The pressure is mounting for Assad to be eliminated quickly. Both Western and Muslim thought processes are guided by the mindset of elimination of "key" individuals. The difference between the Christian evolved post colonial mindset and the Muslim one can be identified in their different treatment of the entire family of the target. While post colonial Christian attitude does not immediately eliminate children or wife/husband but targets them for later sidelining or elimination - the Islamic still maintains their old tradition of liquidation of as much of blood-descent as quickly as possible. Whichever outcome happens - can be used to distinguish who lay behind the assassin's hands.

The west will however try to liquidate Assad by Islamists, and not by their own agents - as it may have repercussions within the forces themselves otherwise. So there is a fair chance that Assads children and wife will be raped and then killed by Sunni jihadis if captured on Assad's assassination.

[ramana]

Bi, In early 2000 I made a ppt slide deck on Arab Nationalism vs Islamist Fundamentalism for a BRF meet in NoCA. Will try ot find it and upload to slideshare.

I had gone thru the history of these two movements and found that West supports the latter and rejects the former. It was a eye opener for some of us then.

A famous Indian origin scholar in West used the thought process for his own studies. He is now a noted expert on the subject.

[brihaspati]

ramana ji,
there is a hidden cynical part in this of the old Caroeism too - all this is consistent with the Brit hatred of the "potentially heterodox/pluralist" Turkish tendencies, together with fearing the Turkish military brain [after all bashed by the turks soundly at Galip even in the 20th century]. It is also about undermining Turkey - as a subplot within the overall western plan [as a subagenda of a subgroup].

[shyamd]

Arms supplies to Syrian rebels dry up amid rivalries and divisions

In Aleppo there is still no sign of the heavy weapons for which the rebels have pleaded and ammunition is running low

Martin Chulov and Ian Black
guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 10 October 2012 17.23 BST


In the battle for northern Syria the most important front is far from Aleppo. It is across the border in the southern Turkish town of Antakya. Here rebels, who now move around with increasing ease, are engaged in daily bids for patronage with those who keep the insurgency running.

Over the past year, and especially since May, when weapons started to arrive, Bashar al-Assad's enemies have met their benefactors in Antakya's backstreets, coffee shops and hotel lobbies and made a case as to why they should receive help.

The rivalries of Arab and Gulf politics, divisions between the west and Russia, fear of Syria's bloody crisis spreading beyond the country's borders to drag in Iran or Lebanon all make supplying arms to the rebels a sensitive and murky issue.

Now, it seems, the supply is drying up. On Aleppo's frontlines, there is still no sign of the heavy weapons for which the rebels have pleaded. Ammunition is running low. "They are giving us enough to keep this fight going, but not enough to win it," complained Abu Furat, a commander. "I'm sure that's not going to change until after the American elections. I'm not sure everyone can survive until then."

The men with the money and influence in Antakya are envoys sent by the Sunni world's political elite or business leaders. One name comes up more than any other – a Lebanese MP named Okab Sakr.

"Every time Okab is in town the weapons start to move across the border," said a rebel colonel from the Jebel al-Zawiya region, who calls himself Abu Wael. "The problem is he is very particular about where those weapons go."

Sakr is a member of the Future movement of the Lebanese opposition leader, Saad Hariri. According to colleagues in Beirut he has been given the role of gun runner-in-chief. Sakr has become a polarising figure among Syria's fragmented opposition; those he supplies see him as a saviour; those who miss out hold him responsible for the faltering rebel cause.

Dissatisfaction with Sakr's role goes further. The US, always jittery about backing the uprising, is opposed to calls by Saudi Arabia and Qatar to supply rebel groups with equipment needed to combat aircraft and tanks – an issue raised by Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney on Monday. Jordan and Turkey appear to share Washington's concerns. Confirmation on Wednesday that the US had sent a military mission to Jordan to help build a headquarters on the border with Syria and to improve Jordan's military capabilities underlines worries about possible spillover.

"It's about indirect intervention," said Mustafa Alani of the Saudi-financed Gulf Research Centre in Abu Dhabi. "The money is there, arms can be supplied. But the Jordanians and the Turks are hesitant. Turkey is allowing some weapons in but there are a lot of restrictions. People are waiting for a shift after the US election."

Another growing problem is a lack of co-ordination between Qatar and the Saudis – the likely subject of Wednesday's talks in Doha between the Emir and the Saudi intelligence chief, Prince Bandar. King Abdullah is said to be growing impatient with the difficulties of the Syrian crisis. According to Syrian opposition activists, the Saudis now sponsor only rebel groups which are at odds with those backed by Qatar and Turkey, which are often linked to the Muslim Brotherhood.

"The Qataris are much more proactive than the Saudis," said one well-placed Arab source. "The Saudis are not interested in democracy, they just want to be rid of Bashar. They would be happy with a Yemeni solution that gets rid of the president and leaves the regime intact."

Intelligence chiefs from Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and France reportedly met in Turkey in early September along with the CIA director general, David Petraeus. But they apparently failed to reach agreement on a co-ordinated strategy.

US officials say the opaque nature of the opposition and the creeping presence of foreign jihadis are behind their pressure on Riyadh and Doha. "They have both been given a yellow light by the Americans," said a Lebanese minister aligned to the Future movement. "The Saudis see yellow as yellow, but the Qataris have seen it as green. Their connections with and supply to the opposition have continued, perhaps escalated. The Americans are especially against handing out anti-aircraft missiles. They will not accept these things falling into the hands of jihadis. Imagine having to do a Stinger buy-back programme like Afghanistan all over again."

Now the Saudis are signalling that they are reaching the limits of what they will do in the face of US objections, concern about the resilience of the Assad regime, fears that extremists will dominate the opposition – as well as the risks of "blowback" from jihadis returning home.

The initial armed support for the rebels resulted in two substantial shipments of automatic weapons, ammunition and rocket-propelled grenades, delivered in May and June from Turkey. Since then, large-scale gun-running has dried up.

"The Saudis were the most enthusiastic by far about getting weapons to the rebels," said a former Lebanese MP. "They were public about it and committed. That was until July." By the middle of that month, foreign jihadis started trickling into Syria looking to join the fray.

The rebel military council, a group of defected senior officers, is opposed to the foreigners and wary of Syria's own Islamist groups, who have been organising and arming in the rural areas between Aleppo and Idlib.

Riyadh worries too about its home front, where the Syrian issue is kept alive by the likes of Sheikh Adnan Arour, a rabidly sectarian Salafi televangelist. Official media continue to bombard the public with images of atrocities carried out by Alawites – Assad's ruling sect. But non-establishment clerics who wanted to launch a fundraising drive to aid Syria were ordered to hold off. An official campaign raised more than $100m in a few days.

"The Saudis fear that there will be blowback from Syria like there was from Iraq and Afghanistan," said Alani. "They don't want chaos. They want the Syrian military to take over. The whole region wants that, including the Israelis. Everyone wants an organised structure of army officers who will keep weapons under control and make sure that they are handed in."

Now the Saudis are pushing the armed Syrian opposition to form a "salvation front" with unified command and control on the ground and, crucially, an ability to collect weapons once fighting has ended – a lesson learned the hard way from Libya. The Saudis are backing brigadier-general Manaf Tlass, the most senior defector yet from the military – from a key Sunni family – as part of a drive to win over other figures from the Syrian army and security establishment. "It's no good calling for them to be held accountable for crimes," warned Alani. "They need to be told they will get support." Next week the Qataris are hosting a conference to try to unite a host of squabbling opposition groups.

But there is little optimism about prospects for any immediate improvement. "It's all a bit of a mess," said analyst Shadi Hamid of the Brookings Institution in Doha. "Everyone is waiting for someone else to do a better job. It can't be the Saudis or the Qataris or the Turks. It's got to be the Americans. If we are looking at Gulf support it's certainly been a big story, but that's not the reality. There's a big gap between what people think the Gulf countries have been doing and what they are actually doing. Not that many weapons have been delivered."

[krisna]

Egypt unveils draft of new constitution

The proposed draft states Egypt will be guided by the principles of sharia, or Islamic law. Critics say loopholes could mean limits on basic rights or freedoms.

Dominated by ultraconservative and moderate Islamists, the 100-member assembly that wrote the charter made it clear that civil and religious rights would be shaped through the prism of Islam

That prospect is recasting alliances and weakening the influence of the United States and other Western powers.

[ramana]

The Arab Spring showers are being used to unleash the Islamist fundamentalism khamsin in the WANA. The object is to suppress any strands of remaining Arab nationalism.

[RoyG]

Syria says Turkey must display confiscated gears to prove its claims

English.news.cn 2012-10-12 05:15:01

DAMASCUS, Oct. 11 (Xinhua) -- Syrian Information Ministry on Thursday rejected Turkish claims that the Syrian commercial plane grounded forcefully in Turkey was carrying ammunition, challenging Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to display the confiscated gears to prove the claims.

In a statement carried by the state TV, the ministry said the Syrian commercial plane was not carrying any ammunition or military gears, adding that Erdogan's remarks "lack credibility."

"He (Erdogan) must display those gears to prove his claims at least for his people," the ministry said.

Turkish authorities ordered the Syrian passenger plane, travelling from Moscow to Damascus, to land late Wednesday over intelligence of "non-civilian cargo."

Erdogan said Thursday that the Syrian passenger plane was carrying Russian-made munitions destined for Syria's defense ministry.

With debates surrounding the intercepted Syrian plane in full swing, Erdogan said the plane was forced to land because a civilian plane cannot carry materials used in the defense industry.

The recent incident cast oil to the fire between both countries after their relation hit a new low last week following mutual cross-border firing.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world ... 812352.htm

[Comer]

Bi, In early 2000 I made a ppt slide deck on Arab Nationalism vs Islamist Fundamentalism for a BRF meet in NoCA. Will try ot find it and upload to slideshare.

I had gone thru the history of these two movements and found that West supports the latter and rejects the former. It was a eye opener for some of us then.

A famous Indian origin scholar in West used the thought process for his own studies. He is now a noted expert on the subject.

It will be great if you can dig this one and share it. I have been wondering about why this Arab Spring business is supported by West, ostensibly against their own interests but 194 pages of discussions was too daunting to peruse. Thanks.

[shyamd]

3 air defence bases taken this week. Is turkey preparing? Talk of some masala in the next 2 weeks.

[shyamd]

"Syrian plane carried dual use equipment for radar system, says #Lavrov" http://t.co/2Tox7eMh

[shyamd]

British and US military sent to prevent Syria chemical weapons grab

Newly-arrived Syrian refugee families receive food from the Jordanian military after they crossed the border from Tal Shehab city in Syria

Britain has sent military personnel to Jordan, where US army experts are helping to contain the fallout from the war in Syria, as well as being ready if the Syrian regime loses control of its large chemical weapons stockpile.

The United States has special forces stationed close to the Syrian border in Turkey as the civil war threatens to spill over and draw in its regional allies.

The presence of an initial contingent of 150 US planners and a very small number of British personnel could raise the possibility of “mission creep” as the Syria conflict becomes a regional proxy war, with Damascus supported by Iran and Russia and the rebels backed directly by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and indirectly by the US.

Britain’s National Security Council, chaired by David Cameron, is due to meet next week, with Syria high on the agenda, amid growing concern over the crisis.

As part of a US-led “containment strategy”, the American troops have set up base north of the Jordanian capital Amman, just 35 miles from the Syrian border. It is understood that the British element is trying to establish what more the UK could do to help.

One of the main concerns in both Whitehall and Washington is that some of President Bashar al Assad’s chemical warheads will fall into the hands of hardline Islamist groups that have joined the fight against the regime. Meanwhile Israel has threatened to intervene if the regime tries to transfer chemical weapons to Hezbollah, its enemy in neighbouring Lebanon.

“We are working with international partners and countries neighbouring Syria to improve border controls to reduce the risk of weapons proliferating to third parties,” said a Foreign Office spokesman. “We have made clear to Assad, directly and through other parties, that any use or proliferation of CBW [chemical and biological weapons] would be completely unacceptable.”

A spokesman for the Ministry of Defence said that Jordan was a key partner in Britain’s regional policy for the Middle East, which included efforts to curtail the Syria crisis. “This work and relationship includes the deployment of UK military personnel to Jordan on a regular basis,” he added.

There is also mounting concern about the stability of Jordan itself, one of the last pro-Western bastions of relative calm in a region where uprisings have swept away the old order. Facing protests from an Islamist opposition, King Abdullah yesterday appointed a new prime minister and charged him with organising parliamentary elections, the first since the Arab Spring began. It is feared external pressure on the Kingdom, similar to the cross-border artillery exchanges that Turkey has engaged in, could make the monarchy vulnerable as it struggles with the economic impact of the war, andat least 100,000 refugees.

The US deployment consists of 150 military planners and logistics personnel. Their initial focus has been helping Jordan cope with the expanding refugee problem, but they are also working on “unilateral” American contingency plans, US officials said. Although they would not be more specific, the planning includes possible US military intervention to prevent extremist militant groups from seizing chemical weapons located in more than 30 sites across the country.

In May, US troops joined units from Jordan and 17 other countries in an exercise called Eager Lion 12, which rehearsed scenarios involving future conflict in the region, and included chemical warfare drills. More than 100 senior US planners stayed on in Jordan and were later joined by other specialists to continue contingency planning.

American and French special forces have been at Incirlik airbase in southern Turkey for weeks, according to security sources. Since early summer, the Nato base has been a nerve-centre for Western nations and regional allies. Agents for Saudi Arabia and Qatar are also at the site, workingto channel weapons and cash to the rebels.

Confirmation of what I said many months ago. This article released today:

NATO Turns Radar Toward Syria As Turkey Fears Attacks

By: Okan Muderrisoglu posted on Friday, Oct 12, 2012

Following Syrian artillery fire to Akcakale and Hatay, Ankara has developed a multifaceted new strategy. After convening the NATO Council on Sept. 3 in a sign of alliance solidarity, and after obtaining parliamentary authorization on Sept. 4 to consolidate its political and military deterrence, Ankara has now taken another critical step.

NATO is increasing its security cooperation with Turkey as tensions rise on the country’s southern border with Syria. Okan Muderrisoglu reports that missile-detecting radar systems are being reoriented to detect threats from Syria, and command centers are being set up in NATO offices in Germany.
Publisher: Sabah (Turkey)
Author: Okan Muderrisoglu
NATO was asked to activate its technical capacity to boost Turkey’s defenses by orienting its radar at Kurecik to Syria.

Military risk analysis

Turkey’s military command is updating military plans in view of the tension with Syria and is engaged in comprehensive risk analysis. The Syrian air force and air-defense systems are assessed as relatively strong points, and studies were made of the threats they may pose to Turkey.

Missile systems and chemical-warfare stocks in Syria were seen as elements of a major threat. This is when the decision was made to make use of NATO facilities.

Kurecik on line

Upon Turkey’s request, NATO reviewed its mechanisms and made two important declarations.

First, it described the Akcakale shelling as an attack against NATO’s southeast borders, instead of the Syria-Turkey border. Then, NATO emphasized the indivisibility of security among NATO allies and put it on record that it will not tolerate military aggression against Turkey.

Finally, a strategic dimension was added to diplomatic moves by turning the Malatya-Kurecik radar of the NATO missile shield toward Syria.

Anti-missile measures

With the integrated radar system at Kurecik, the missiles that make up Syria’s air-defense and offensive capacities are now under NATO surveillance. In case of a possible missile attack against Turkey, the early warning system of Kurecik radar will be activated, and Turkish F-16s kept on standby will be tasked to thwart the missile attack.

Moreover, depending on the level of threat perception, intelligence obtained from NATO AWACS early-warning aircraft may be utilized and Patriot missile interception systems can be deployed.

Missile shield project

The missile shield project Turkey joined in 2011 was initially set up with American technical and military input. The base at Kurecik was later put under Turkish military control.

At the beginning of the year, American experts were sent to the radar base. In defense of the system criticized by Russia and Iran, NATO said that all data to be obtained by the radar will be used in defense of all allies. Ankara said repeatedly that the radar base does not target any country and was purely a defensive measure without any deployment of missiles.

Command in Germany

The Kurecik missile shield system, which can detect aerial vehicle and missile-launcher movements in real time, is commanded from the NATO air base at Ramstein, Germany.

The system is controlled from the NATO air base at Geilenkirchen, Germany, which also monitors all aerial moves. A Turkish general and his team are working in the command center in Germany. This general is recognized as a fully authorized representative of Turkey.

Interesting piece by the former Clinton advisor:

A Truly Credible Military Threat to Iran

The Israelis and the Americans are zeroing in on a strike option that has a real chance of deterring the mullahs -- and defusing Mitt Romney's attacks.
BY DAVID ROTHKOPF | OCTOBER 8, 2012

In Mitt Romney's "Hope Is Not a Strategy" speech at the Virginia Military Institute, the Republican challenger zeroed in on the current unrest in the Middle East as a sign that President Barack Obama's foreign policy is not working. The most biting implication in the speech is the assertion that al Qaeda is resurgent -- in other words that killing Osama bin Laden, emotionally satisfying as it was, was not the game-changer in the region that the Obama administration has implied it was.

But of equal importance to the Republican critique of Obama is Romney's assessment that Obama's efforts to reverse Iran's course toward gaining nuclear weapons have been unsuccessful. In the hours before the speech was delivered, neoconservative Romney foreign-policy advisor Dan Senor suggested on MSNBC's Morning Joe that Obama effectively had to be dragged against his will toward tougher sanctions on Iran -- the same tough sanctions for which the administration is now regularly taking credit because they have started to work. Senor noted that both Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and former Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg pushed back against bipartisan congressional support for the sanctions out of concern that they would have unintended negative consequences for the U.S. and global economies.

A centerpiece of the Romney campaign's argument that Obama has not been tough enough on Iran is that the president has not offered a credible military threat against the Iranians. Say what you will about the rest of Romney's remarks -- and broadly speaking, there was not much new in them except that for the first time, the Republican nominee has addressed foreign policy recently without tripping over one of his own misstatements -- but even some of the president's supporters have told me privately they wonder about his commitment and that of the U.S. military to taking action against Iran.

The reasons for these doubts are several. Despite the president's regular assurance that Iran will not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons and that force will be used if necessary, the American people's war fatigue in the wake of Iraq and Afghanistan has made any complex, costly, or highly risky action a tough political sell back home. Further, there have been multiple assertions by analysts that the likelihood of a successful strike on Iran is low. Finally, the public bickering with the Israelis suggested that the United States was dragging its feet and that the Israelis might be forced to act alone precisely because they did not expect to get U.S. support.

Despite the public histrionics in the run-up to the U.N. General Assembly meetings, both White House and Israeli officials assert that the two sides behind the scenes have come closer together in their views in recent days. While there may not be exact agreement on what constitutes a "red line" -- a sign of Iranian progress toward the development of nuclear weapons that would trigger military action -- the military option being advocated by the Israelis is considerably more limited and lower risk than some of those that have been publicly debated.

Indeed, according to a source close to the discussions, the action that participants currently see as most likely is a joint U.S.-Israeli surgical strike targeting Iranian enrichment facilities. The strike might take only "a couple of hours" in the best case and only would involve a "day or two" overall, the source said, and would be conducted by air, using primarily bombers and drone support. Advocates for this approach argue that not only is it likely to be more politically palatable in the United States but, were it to be successful -- meaning knocking out enrichment facilities, setting the Iranian nuclear program back many years, and doing so without civilian casualties -- it would have regionwide benefits. One advocate asserts it would have a "transformative outcome: saving Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, reanimating the peace process, securing the Gulf, sending an unequivocal message to Russia and China, and assuring American ascendancy in the region for a decade to come."

While this approach would limit the negative costs associated with more protracted interventions, it could not be conducted by the Israelis acting alone. To get to buried Iranian facilities, such as the enrichment plant at Fordow, would require bunker-busting munitions on a scale that no Israeli plane is capable of delivering. The mission, therefore, must involve the United States, whether acting alone or in concert with the Israelis and others.

What does this have to do with Romney's remarks? Were it clearer that the primary Iran option being discussed is this very limited surgical strike, then a U.S. threat of force would be that much more credible. And if it were more credible -- because it seemed like the kind of risk the president is more willing to undertake -- then it would have the added benefit of providing precisely the kind of added leverage that might make diplomacy more successful. In other words, the public contemplation of a more limited, doable mission provides more leverage than the threat of even more robust action that is less likely to happen.

With that in mind, and given the progress that the Israelis and the administration seem to have made in the past couple of weeks, it may be that the easiest way for the Obama team to defuse Romney's critique on Iran is simply to communicate better what options they are in fact considering. It's not the size of the threatened attack, but the likelihood that it will actually be made, that makes a military threat a useful diplomatic tool. And perhaps a political one, too.

[pentaiah]

Ok another psyops

Obama in election run, bibi wants snap poll, so a little joint war fare.

Ben Battle was a soldier bold, And used to war's alarms: But a cannon-ball took off his legs, So he laid down his arms!

[shyamd]

Don't think the article is inferring action in the next month - I think its the military option if talks fail. In fact, the EU has been offering peace deal and negotiations are underway.

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Turks amassing on the border. Some NATO allies worried about Turks being too gung ho and dragging them in it. Syrian helicopters struck a Turkish village on the border where rebels pick up their supplies, Turkish F16s were scrambled to the area - Turkish media blocked it out . Turkish media publishing photos of tanks and artillery right against the border fence with Syria.

Turkey threatens retaliation if Syria strikes again

Turkey beefs up border security and threatens to retaliate forcefully if its border with Syria is violated again.
Tanks were being deployed on the Turkish side of the border alongside anti-missile launchers.

Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said today that Turkey will retaliate without hesitation if the violence is not contained. Turkey's armed forces have repeatedly responded over the past few weeks to gunfire and shelling spilling across the border from Syria.

More tanks were deployed on the Turkish side of the border on Saturday alongside anti-missile launchers. Hostilities have escalated since artillery shelling killed five in a Turkish village last week. Fighting has also crept over Syria's borders into Lebanon, Jordan and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, stoking fears that the Syrian civil conflict could drag other countries into a regional war.

In an effort to lower the temperature, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov suggested on 10 October that the best way to resolve the conflict with Ankara would be through direct contact between Syrian and Turkish authorities.

“Syria welcomes Lavrov’s statement on the necessity to create a mechanism of direct dialogue on security issues between Syria and Turkey,” Syria's foreign ministry said in a statement circulated by local media today.
Security committee proposed

Syrian authorities have discussed with the Russian ambassador in Damascus “the possibility of setting up a joint Syrian-Turkish committee on monitoring security along the mutual border,” according to the Syrian statement.

Turkey's parliament has already authorised its government to launch cross-border military operations as a deterrent against potential attacks from Syria for the period of one year.

Lakhdar Brahimi, the UN and Arab League envoy for Syria, was holding talks with Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu today.

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Secret Israel-Syria Peace Talks Involved Golan Heights Exit

By ISABEL KERSHNER

JERUSALEM — For several months in 2010, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel engaged in secret, American-brokered discussions with Syria for a possible peace treaty based on a full Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights.

But the process was cut short by the Arab Spring uprisings that swept the Middle East in early 2011, soon spreading to Syria, and the treaty did not come to fruition, according to an Israeli, Michael Herzog, who was involved in the talks.

“Nothing was agreed between the parties,” Mr. Herzog said Friday. “It was a work in progress.”

Yediot Aharonot, a leading Israeli newspaper, first published details of the American-led effort on Friday, and Mr. Herzog, a former chief of staff to Israel’s defense minister and an Israel-based fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, confirmed the outlines of the discussions. He said in a telephone interview that he was called in to help with the process in 2010, although he had already retired from military and government service.

The contacts were mediated by Frederick Hoff, who recently retired from the United States State Department, where he had served as a special coordinator for Lebanon and Syria, and Dennis B. Ross, who was then a special assistant to President Obama on the Middle East.

“There was a detailed list of Israeli demands meant to serve as a basis for a peace agreement,” said Mr. Herzog, adding that they centered on security arrangements and the regional context. “The idea,” he said, “was to see if we could drive a wedge in the radical axis of Iran-Syria-Hezbollah” by taking Syria out of the equation. Next, he said, the idea was to pursue peace with Lebanon.

But Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian president, apparently would not give clear signals about his willingness to split with Iran, his patron in the region. And Mr. Netanyahu was proceeding cautiously as well, distrustful that Mr. Assad would deliver.

The negotiations never came to a head. By early 2011 the region was in upheaval and the talks fell apart.

Raising one point of contention, Yediot Aharonot, which is generally centrist but often critical of Mr. Netanyahu, said that in exchange for a peace agreement, the prime minister was prepared to agree to a full withdrawal from the Golan Heights, the strategic plateau that Israel seized from Syria in the 1967 war and later annexed in a move that has not been internationally recognized.

The prime minister’s office denied on Friday that Israel had agreed to a withdrawal.

“This is one initiative of many that was proposed to Israel in the past years,” Mr. Netanyahu’s office said in a statement. “At no stage did Israel accept this American initiative. The initiative is old and irrelevant, and its publication now stems from political needs,” apparently a reference to the fact that both Mr. Obama and Mr. Netanyahu are facing elections in the coming weeks and months.

With Israeli elections expected in January, it would not be in Mr. Netanyahu’s interest to be seen as having made far-reaching concessions to Syria in the absence of a deal. But it is not clear how far Mr. Netanyahu might have gone in the talks, since he did not reach the point of having to make a decision.

More than a year before those talks, American officials were already apparently trying to engage the Israelis and the Syrians. In a press briefing in July 2009, a State Department spokesman, Ian Kelly, told reporters that Mr. Hoff, who then worked in the office of former Senator George J. Mitchell, then Mr. Obama’s special envoy to the Middle East, was in Israel meeting with senior officials, and after Israel, planned to visit Damascus.

“The visit is part of ongoing efforts by senator, or special envoy Mitchell and his team to secure a lasting, comprehensive peace in the region,” Mr. Kelly said.

The intensive contacts began in the fall of 2010, presumably around the time that Israel’s negotiations with the Palestinians came to a standstill. Mr. Netanyahu and his defense minister, Ehud Barak, were involved in the indirect discussions. The few Israeli officials and experts privy to the talks were made to sign a secrecy agreement.

Israeli leaders, including Mr. Netanyahu, have explored the possibility of reaching a deal with the Syrians in the past, based on at least a partial withdrawal from the Golan Heights, which overlook northern Israel. During Mr. Netanyahu’s first term in office in the late 1990s, contacts with Syria took place through Mr. Netanyahu’s envoy at the time, the American businessman Ronald Lauder.

Former Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin conducted inconclusive negotiations with the Syrians, as did Mr. Barak when he was prime minister. Ehud Olmert, Mr. Netanyahu’s predecessor as prime minister, held indirect talks with Syria through Turkish mediators; those talks broke off when Israel opened an offensive in Gaza in the winter of 2008.

The denial by Mr. Netanyahu’s office of any agreement on a full withdrawal was reinforced by a former aide.

Dore Gold, who was an adviser during Mr. Netanyahu’s first term in office, specifically rejected the assertion in Yediot Aharonot that Mr. Netanyahu had agreed to withdraw all the way to the eastern shoreline of the Sea of Galilee.

Mr. Gold said that in September 1996, he personally secured an assurance from the United States, under instructions from Mr. Netanyahu, that all previous Israeli statements regarding readiness for a full withdrawal to that line “have no political or legal standing.”

Mr. Gold, who is now president of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, a conservative-leaning research institute, said that Mr. Netanyahu “has always viewed the Golan Heights as a strategic asset for the defense of Israel,” and that it was “completely unthinkable that Prime Minister Netanyahu would ever contemplate the kind of withdrawal” described by Yediot Aharonot on Friday.