Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

[RamaY]

The trouble with the "Social Engg" / "Emancipation" rubbish of the Dravidian parties/ Dalit parties/ and even the commie JNU ding dong kind is that they want "Social Emancipation" , but not ECONOMIC emancipation.

The Dravidian-EJ+secular mafia doesn't want the Social Emancipation either. They want to undermine the "so-called" upper-castes, now that the "so-called" lower-castes are more or less EJised.

What happens to all this Dravidian-EJ-secular nonsense in a hypothetical scenario, if entire Hindu population of India converts to Christianity tomorrow and make India a christian state?

Slave minds behave slavish only.

[vina]

Umm...

Vina, I literally have no idea where you are going with that rambling post.

Are you saying caste based entrepreneurship is OK as long as they use machines or are you saying that caste entrepreneurship is bad. You say both those contradictory things in the same sentence!

No. No. All I am saying that caste/guild has a "historical context" and real economic advantages and is really not a very unique Indian phenomenon in that sense. What really happened in India, is since we had (still have) a massive modernity deficit , the transition from a feudal/medieval society and economic organization to an industrial/capitalist/modern society didn't happen for a large number of people/communities until very recently. The advantages of business clusters and networks dont go away even if you move to a modern society and you will still have those clusters and networks , just more modern and upto date (Silly Con valley, or all the Mittelstands or even Bangalore/ Tirupur /Coimbatore kind of things) and of course there will be specialization.

See, the antidote to caste and the debilitating and anti human aspects of that is not some random rhetoric by the Dravidian ideologues or the social engineering by the Govt/ JNU kinds. But rather modernity. Modern India post 1947 is precisely that , a modernity and modernizing project. The Congress under JLN, right upto Indira and even Rajiv were a modernizing vision and project.

Dravidian this or that (I'm assuming you don't identify as a Dravidian), power ministers, POI, etc.

The trouble with the Dravididan parties/Other social Engineers of the JNU ding dong kind is that they are profoundly anti modern. Though their rhetoric is to claim that they are more "Modern" than anyone (in addition the Dravidian parties also claim to be rationalist.......which unfortunately extends only as far as naming a cycle as Kicking/Pressing Machine in Tamil), they are anything but. Their entire social outlook is not to look at citizenship and citizens as a modern individual sense, but rather, the old "Jaati" mindset in the crudest form. Convenient as a vote catching device , but terrible in every other sense.

I'd love to see you come and implement your 'competitive advantage' at the Perungadi fish market. Lets see you bring your mechanized equipment and ask the caste folks to clean the fish market.

Why would any YumbeeYea stratejee.. come and clean up a traditional fish market ? That is the job of JNU jholawalas and politico busy bodies and their enforcers who collect "hafta" from the poor fisherfolk there. YumbeeYea will set up a modern fish /meat retailing outlet with ice machines and fileting stations and equipment with workers with gloves and caps like what you find in Bangalore, Kerala!
Perugadi folks will compete with the YumBeeYeas by cleaning up and upgrading or by violence and trying to block the YumbeeYeas from entering . Case in point the ruckus about WalMart and others being allowed to enter.

For that matter what stops you saar from getting your mechanized tractor down to the Madiwala market and turning into a garbage entrepreneur. I'll tell you what stops you, the fact that every resident in your apartment complex will then kick you and your children out on the street the next day

.
The only reason why Madiwala doesn't get cleaned up is the politoco-corporator-market vendor nexus and patronage network. I really don't think the unhygeinc, encroached on a main throughfare and hafta collecting business model either represents the best of India or the future. That model is as dead as nails going forward

Also, I think you overlook the common sense and modernity of people. No one gets kicked out of any Apartment for running a leather factory or apparel factory, no doctor is kicked out (they cut up cadavers to learn the trade in the first place), or for that matter, no one ostracised me for eating meat, come on, there is a wider world out there than the ridiculous "Jaati Buddhi" anti modern hangover of the Dravidian movement. Of course different communities (and individuals within those) modernized at different times and speed in India, but that is a process that will continue to it's logical end.

For eg, a traditional Dhobi that collects clothes on his donkey and washes them is probably some historically "Backward/Most Backward/Scheduled"/ whatever caste. What will you classify the guy who runs the launderomat (rows of shining industrial sized IFB washing machines) in my neighborhood where all the IT/vity kids get their clothes washed and pressed ? A Dhobi of ""Backward/Most Backward/Scheduled"/ whatever caste"? Is he of the "Dhobi" caste at all or just any changu-mangu caste? The JNU/Social Engg/Dravidian Movement simply cannot get over it. Even if the traditional occupation-jaati link is fundamentally broken now, they simply will continue to classify millions as "Dhobi" and claim to want to dole out "Welfare/Reservation/" and continue these anti modern jaati rubbish, without letting a modern society form. Their vision is continuation of caste as an identity, rather than just a society with names like Shumachher or Boucher or Wasserman as last names, but with no link with Schumachher or Boucher making shoes or being a butcher!

This sort of nonsense is meant for a fully modern social system.

Exactly. So you SHOULD have a MODERN SOCIAL SYSTEM. If you want social emancipation you must have it, along with economic emancipation. You cant have social emancipation WITHOUT modernity and that is why I am against the Commie of the JNU type and the Dravidian parties who are anti modern in the fundamental sense, but claim to be more modern than anyone else.

Not one where our children are guaranteed to never work on 'mechanized' garbage cleaning or night soil work. It's all meant for some one else's children.

Fundamentally it is this. Why should ANYONE'S CHILDREN have to collect garbage manually or do "night soil work" ? Put in modern garbage collection and handling systems, plumbing and sewage and sanitation and get away from it.

[sugriva]

Hmm. Mullah Porter and his Heeramandi model. One of the main ingredients in that model is the government as stated by none other than the good mullah himself. Another is luck/chance. The government influences all of the other factors, except chance of course.

Caste based banks. Prior to bank nationalization access to these banking networks were restricted to few and far between. It was primarily for, by and of the caste networks. BTW, a useful history lesson can be obtained by doing a google search on the number of bank failures prior to nationalization. No prizes for guessing that most were caste based enterprises. But I digress.... Anyways, the government's nationalization of banks opened up banking services to larger sections of people. As a result various sections of people could deposit and wonder of wonders even borrow money to setup businesses. Was it redistributive to the erstwhile castes that ran the roost at these banks? No, as these were the most creditworthy fellows and banks would always want to loan out to them. So net net, the beneficial aspects of bank nationalization were profound to say the least. Heck, the home loan revolution was triggered by wider banking access to all and sundry. Without it, the real estate business, in which there are a lot of caste based entrepreneurs, would have gone nowhere. So much for the machogiri of the caste based real estate slum lord.

Clusters of industries. Without freight equalization, implemented by that vile FM, TT Krishnamachari, there would have been no significant heavy industry in the south, especially TN. The likes of N Srinivasan would have been railway clerks and not cement industry owners without favourable government policy. BTW the reason Bangalore developed as an IT hub was due to the presence of various DRDO and defence labs in and around Bangalore. Again an effect of government policy.

So no need to have wet dreams at the thought of caste based entrepreneurs being at the source of wealth creation in India. Given the right opportunity anybody will be able to do business as well as the other. Similar nonsense of some "races" being better at fighting than others lead to the creation of the "martial races" theory. Ironically it was the superior organizational ability, discipline and technology of the East India Company, staffed by non-martial castes such as "Mahars" and Purbiyas that had defeated the so called martial races who were later co-opted post 1857. The Jews didn't have a country, much less an army, for 2000 years. That doesn't prevent Israel from having one of the finest fighting forces in the world today.

[vera_k]

Seems like the economy is either doing okay, or is on life support, depending on what measure is more accurate.

India Data Dearth Roils Investors as RBI Gathers Own Statistics

Measuring growth in India’s $1.8 trillion economy is also tricky: an Aug. 31 report showed it both accelerated and slowed.

GDP rose 5.5 percent in the three months through June from a year earlier, near the three-year low of 5.3 percent in the previous quarter, using assessments of output from industries.

An alternative estimate based on spending on goods and services shows a slowdown to 3.9 percent, according to calculations by Bloomberg using data in the release.

[vina]

Anyways, the government's nationalization of banks opened up banking services to larger sections of people. As a result various sections of people could deposit and wonder of wonders even borrow money to setup businesses.

Yes. It increased the size of the banking system and increased penetration. But hower, notice that India still is underpentrated and vast sections of Indians dont use the banking system at all in any form. So it is really a half full argument.

Heck, the home loan revolution was triggered by wider banking access to all and sundry.

Su-Grieve-AAAAH. Good grief. How old are you ? Twenty with pimples still on your face ? Do you know of the India of the 60s,70s, and 80s and the history of loans. My grandma (88years old) always told me this "Those days, buying anything was difficult, no loans, no finance, no nothing". These days people get a loan and buy anything" .

The Govt of India policy was to suppress consumer credit in all forms and by fiat (thanks to the ISI/DSE/Planning Commission ding dong giri), the savings of the country was directed to setting up PSU and govt industry.. Want a scooter, pay in full and wait for 5 years for a Vijay scooter pliss!

It is only post the 91 reforms when lending was loosened you saw the credit revolution you see today (esp banking licenses handed out to private sector). HDFC, ICICI and all those did a great job in in that with stellar results (look up the result of consumer /retail lending focused pvt banks like HDFC and others, vs that of the PSU banks..) . To credit the "credit boom" with nationalization and not fundamental change of govt policy in 91 is missing the wood for the trees no ?

Clusters of industries. Without freight equalization, implemented by that vile FM, TT Krishnamachari, there would have been no significant heavy industry in the south, especially TN.

Listen. I repeat for the LAST time. There is NO significant heavy industry in the south that is mineral based. Okay the JSW steel in KA is very recent, and the Salem Steel plant was a very minor affair.

The likes of N Srinivasan would have been railway clerks and not cement industry owners without favourable government policy.

Maybe. But all the same they would be polite and respectful railway clerks, rather than the absolutely rude and uncouth ones at Howrah who happen to throw back the tickets and change at the booking counters to the customers at the window (my personal experience. I never felt that offeneded in my life before).

BTW the reason Bangalore developed as an IT hub was due to the presence of various DRDO and defence labs in and around Bangalore. Again an effect of government policy.

I thought that particular canard was punctured long ago ?

So no need to have wet dreams at the thought of caste based entrepreneurs being at the source of wealth creation in India.

I don't think anyone said that or even maintained that.

Given the right opportunity anybody will be able to do business as well as the other.

Okay. Somehow the Govt of India, the JNU ding-dong intelligentia, the Commie Parties and others dont seem to think so. If they do, why would they want to have caste based "reservations" in schools, colleges and employment and finally promotion ?

Why not have it at just one level , say education (say undergrad) and then put out the message,that you got the opportunity as everyone else in your clas, now go out and do as well or better than anyone else.

How come there is no consistency there? Why do you have to bring in "historical backwardness" and all the other stuff of into it and insist on preferred treatment even after getting "equal opportunity" ?

[member_20292]

The Govt of India policy was to suppress consumer credit in all forms and by fiat (thanks to the ISI/DSE/Planning Commission ding dong giri), the savings of the country was directed to setting up PSU and govt industry.. Want a scooter, pay in full and wait for 5 years for a Vijay scooter pliss!

It is only post the 91 reforms when lending was loosened you saw the credit revolution you see today (esp banking licenses handed out to private sector). HDFC, ICICI and all those did a great job in in that with stellar results (look up the result of consumer /retail lending focused pvt banks like HDFC and others, vs that of the PSU banks..) . To credit the "credit boom" with nationalization and not fundamental change of govt policy in 91 is missing the wood for the trees no ?

Clusters of industries. Without freight equalization, implemented by that vile FM, TT Krishnamachari, there would have been no significant heavy industry in the south, especially TN.

BTW the reason Bangalore developed as an IT hub was due to the presence of various DRDO and defence labs in and around Bangalore. Again an effect of government policy.

I thought that particular canard was punctured long ago ?

Vinaji, any place where one can find references for these events, which can be used as a reliable source in a document? Cia handbook or something?

[member_20292]

^^ btw ..nice argument theo fidel , vina, sugriva....learning a lot from this.

[rohitvats]

<SNIP> you talked about Real Estate , heard of Jones Lang LaSalle or Cushman & Weikfield and just look up their revenue numbers. <SNIP>

Companies like JLL/C&W/CBRE have been achieving revenues north of 200 crores per annum in India over last couple of years...

[Theo_Fidel]

Vina,

Yup! This whole caste based entrepreneurship nonsense is an attempt to perpetuate medieval social structures into the modern age. It worked in medieval times but Europe progressed precisely by getting rid of the 'guilds'. You can read the history of how the Guilds were smashed including the most famous of them the Free Masons who controlled the ability to build with stone or brick for centuries.

The difference in India is we are still dealing with the detritus of this primitive thinking into the present day and our version unfortunately came with a 'labeled at birth' component rather than an option at birth component Europe had. The other mistake our system made was in being too thorough and organizing everyone from beedi roller to Gopuram bell ringer into a sub-caste and turning it into a hard enforced rule. These strict rules definitely continue to the present day.

Most definitely social reform and economic reform go hand in hand. You can not have one without the other. After 20 years of economic reform, I think we are bumping into the limits of focusing exclusively on that aspect. For further progress we now need more social reform. I do agree with you that the Dravidian movement neglected economic reforms and did not fully incorporate it into their philosophy. There were reasons for this. But the social reforms have served TN very well right now. There is far more sustainable labor peace and middle class economic striving in TN than in say Haryana. But still more reform both social and economic are needed right now.

In Bengluru, Kerala, type places the old social structure has weakened a bit. As I have said before, most definitely we have made improvements. But in Pankudi, TN, these rules very much remain in place. My dad rented his Palamkottai house to a Karruvaddu trader family. The neighbors were up in arms and put incredible pressure on them till they moved out. This despite the fact that they did not store any karruvaddu at home.

It is nice to go mechanical boss but what to do with the millions who are unemployable. That’s what it comes down to. The main problem that remains with India is that it remains cheaper to hire a bunch of people to do things like 'night soil' work than it is to build a proper sewer system. The aim is to make this status quo intolerable so folks stump up the money necessary to go fully modern. Of course this eliminates work for the truly destitute folk. So we need to have a proper safety net system so they can be supported while they re-train or move on to other work. This is what the NREGA was supposed to do though in retrospect a well planned cash transfer system may get better results.

BTW the South does have plenty of mineral resources. There is about 100 Billion tones of Lignite in TN. Andhra has about 80 Billion tones of good Bituminous coal in the Simhadri belt. Karnataka is loaded with Iron ore and every other manner of mineral. There should have been no reason TN was importing coal from Bihar & WB. Germany runs much of its modern economy on Lignite. It is only now that things like Tummulapalle 150,000 ton Uranium deposit was discovered in Karnataka/Andhra. The consensus in my text book was that there was no Uranium in the South and hence don't bother looking. Even back then I found it odd that the south has Diamonds and Gold but nothing else! And even then it was known that the south was essentially the same as the mineral wealthy Australian craton. It was failure of imagination of North Indian centric government that they saw the south as poor and not cool and hence did not fully develop and invest in these resources in the South. The odd thing is the propaganda was so heavy even now southies believe this mineral nonsense.

[RamaY]

Theoji

There is a need for a comprehensive plan for retraining of unskilled labor. Age is also a factor in training. It would have been nice if they announced
- Monthly pension for unskilled labor >55yrs
- Employment Gaurantee scheme for 45-55 yrs olds (~10 years of working life) followed by Social Security
- Retraining program for 35-45 yr olds (~20 years of working life)
- Re-education program for 20-35 yr olds
and
Vocational training for <20 year olds with industry participation.

The problem is that none of the Govt programs come with clear vision, strategy, necessary education and proper media usage.

But to be fair I noticed few public notices on walls in my native village in this trip
- About Sarva Siksha Abhiyan
- A toll-free call number for people >18 years and are without job
- Information on NREGA program

etc.,

I hope all these NGOs spend their time and resources in educating the needy on various Govt schemes and make them access these facilities instead of running foreign supported anti-national agitations or religious conversion programs.

[ArmenT]

My dad rented his Palamkottai house to a Karruvaddu trader family. The neighbors were up in arms and put incredible pressure on them till they moved out. This despite the fact that they did not store any karruvaddu at home.

This "karruvaddu" doesn't happen to be the sun-dried fish, does it? If so, I wasn't aware that there are specific traders for that stuff.

[vina]

BTW the South does have plenty of mineral resources. There is about 100 Billion tones of Lignite in TN. Andhra has about 80 Billion tones of good Bituminous coal in the Simhadri belt. Karnataka is loaded with Iron ore and every other manner of mineral. There should have been no reason TN was importing coal from Bihar & WB. Germany runs much of its modern economy on Lignite. It is only now that things like Tummulapalle 150,000 ton Uranium deposit was discovered in Karnataka/Andhra.

Neyveli etc were exploited post indenepdence. The ChottaNagpur plateau discoveries date back much earlier and were exploited before independence.

Freight equalizatin etc is at the flush of independence and start of Nehruvian socialism. But all the same, the large steel plants were set up right next to large mineral deposits and it is not as if they shipped coal and ore all the way to Bombay or Madras (states) to make steel.

[vina]

Folks. Please feel free to answer the poll I am conducting on a very neat city. Sugriva et al, most certainly should participate.

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... f=2&t=6457

[nandakumar]

I don't see the problem (recent posts by Vina, Theo Fidel et al) as economic progress thwarted by social backwardness. It is generally accepted that we need to grow at more than 10 per cent in real terms for another 20 years to reach standards of living that are at least comparable to middle income group countries. As things stand now, that looks really hard. In that sense we seem to have reached the limits of growth through the medium of low-hanging economic reforms fruit.
But is that because we have stopped making progress on the caste front? I am not so sure. The fact of the matter is economic growth is increasingly coming into conflict with people's sense of entitlement under the existing order of things. Let me illustrate this with an example. Let us say we want to start a factory in some place. The place is barren and is being used for smuggling activities. The construction of a factory in such a place would necessarily interfere with the activities of those engaged in in such smuggling activities. A person thus affected is bound to resist with all means, fair and foul that are at his disposal, in an effort to stop the factory coming up. Now, it may so happen that he brings up a social or a caste dimension to the dispute. But that doesn't mean that economic development is being held a hostage to a caste issue. Nor should we see it as a manifestation of social backwardness.
It is a clash between narrow partisan interests and wider economic progress. Unfortunately narrow partisan interests seem to be getting the upper hand all the the time. I recall reading that when Tatas wanted to put up a titanium dioxide plant near Tirunelveli the opposition was masterminded by someone who felt it would interfere with his illegal export business in semi precious stones/minerals that the place abounds in. The investment was thwarted and the place has slid to its old somanambulist ways as before. Now in the normal course one would expect the State backed by a committed political leadership would have stepped in and mediated in the dispute. If the investment was going to bring about greater prosperity than letting the status quo prevail the State steps in and ensures with its full might that the investment takes place. But that doesn't happen. The leadership is already compromised by the same vested interests who feel threatened by modernity and economic progress. Whether it is a steel plant, or a coal mine or GM crop all initiatives come into conflict with vested interests that have a stake in the status quo. The naxalites are not letting investments take place in Jharkhand/Chhattisgarh not out of an extreme sense of tribal affiliation. Economic progress would interfere with their control over resources in that region however sub-optimally they may be exploiting it. I am not saying that fresh investments do not have an environmental dimension. They most certainly do. But those opposing it might quite easily be taking recourse to environmental degradation as loss of tribal identity in their battle to preserve the status quo. So, I see this problem not so much as a manifestation of social backwardness but as one where entrenched vested interests with a stake in the status quo, subverting the due process of law and order thanks to an enfeebled State and political machinery.

[Don]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/populatio ... 8AD9TQtDMD

Population bulge tests India's growth aspirations

As aspirations of young Indians rise, population bulge makes jobs for them hard to get

By Nirmala George, Associated Press | Associated Press – 11 hours ago.

NEW DELHI (AP) -- Vijay Kumar clutched a worn plastic folder containing his high school diploma and his nursing aide certificate as he joined a long queue at an employment exchange in a New Delhi suburb. It's a familiar ritual. For six years he has struck out.

Kumar is one of the millions of young Indians who make up a population bulge that experts say will see India hit 1.6 billion people in less than 20 years, overtaking China as the world's most populated country. Over the next three to four decades India will become remarkably young, with more than half its population under 25.

India's politicians like to boast that the swelling youth population is a powerful rising tide that will propel the country into a global economic power while other Asian nations such as Japan grapple with graying majorities. They can point to China where a population spurt contributed to rising prosperity as a vast army of young people migrated from the countryside to the manufacturing heartlands in its south and east. But in India it just might become a waste of human potential on a monumental scale, another missed opportunity in a country perennially failing to deliver on its promise.

The burgeoning youth population "will be a dividend if we empower our young," Kapil Sibal, minister for human resource development, said recently. "It will be a disaster if we fail."

Young job seekers such as Kumar flock to some 900 state-run job centers across the country, where they vie for a limited number of entry-level jobs offered by the government and private companies. The government says 6.6 percent of India's workers are jobless, a figure that belies that harsh reality of the labor market where many eke out a subsistence level existence in menial, unsafe and backbreaking jobs. The situation is worse for young job-seekers with government statistics placing the number of unemployed higher at 10.5 percent.

Kumar grew up in the poverty-ridden eastern state of Bihar. Like countless others he moved to the Indian capital in search of employment.

"In Bihar, there was no hope of getting a job. It was a choice of migrating to Delhi or starving. It wasn't a choice, really," he said, at once dispirited and hopeful that the latest visit to the employment exchange will yield results.

The employment agency in the New Delhi suburb of Shahdara operates from one corner of a large unswept hall in a government building. Broken furniture lies at one end. A tangle of electrical wires and cobwebs hang from the ceiling. The walls are covered in dust. A slow moving ceiling fan whirls the dust in slow eddies.

Job applicants sit on a row of metal benches, shifting sideways till it's their turn at the single desk where a clerk with a computer and printer registers them to apply for openings. The jobs on offer are at the very lowest rung as clerks or office boys — but as applicants say, it's a job.

Each day a couple of hundred applicants pass through the office. Fresh-faced young graduates registering for the first time. Older applicants, renewing their applications, are dejected and bitter at the futility of the exercise.

Rajinder Singh, the clerk, shrugs helplessly. "We post all the jobs there are. The problem is, there are too few openings and too many applicants," he said.

India's economy, the 10th largest in the world, is fast growing even considering its recent slowdown. Businesses want workers, the young especially.

But unlike in the economically struggling U.S. and Europe, where many highly skilled applicants are fighting over few jobs, only a minority of working-age Indians are qualified for skilled occupations.

The poor quality of education in India is partly to blame. Millions of job seekers have impressive sounding diplomas but many don't have the skills promised by those certificates from substandard colleges and technical institutes.

And as India's growth rate lags its potential, it's an ever bigger task for private companies to absorb the fast rising number of young job seekers. Despite low wages, foreign companies aren't rushing in to plug the gaps, wary of unpredictable turns in government policy, frequent strikes and other negatives.

Driven by their exposure to television and films showing the good life, young jobseekers have rising aspirations. Their inability to reach them is leading to enormous frustration.

Kumar gets hired by the day as a laborer with a house painting crew, sending part of his meager earnings back to his parents, itinerant farm workers.

Every six months he heads back to the exchange to renew his registration.

"My hopes are high. Each day I get by on hope," he said.

Seconds later, fatalism took over. "Whether I succeed or not, that is in God's hands."

There is concern that if growing numbers of young people in India do not find employment, or if they find themselves in dead-end jobs, the risk of political violence escalates, said Ashish Bose, a leading population expert.

India's economic and regional inequalities along with age-old caste, religious and class tensions provide ample cause for disgruntled young people to find a grievance to rally around, with the danger of them resorting to extremism.

India, with the world's largest chunk of illiterates at over 250 million, has to invest massively in technical and academic education, said Bose.

"Anyone who has some skill is potentially employable," he said.

Employment analysts say only 15 percent of working age Indians have the skills needed to find a good job — a deficit the government is trying to address through public-private partnerships focused on worker training. But with millions of young people entering the job market each year, the sheer numbers dwarf any government-sponsored program to impart skill training to first time job seekers.

Job hunter Dharmender Singh Rawat's lack of success has not tempered his hopes of a better life.

Rawat trained as a bus driver, but couldn't find a job. He tried to enlist in the armed forces, but failed. Clean shaven and neatly dressed, Rawat is clear that he wants to cast off his humble lower middle class roots and pursue his upwardly mobile dreams.

On occasion he drops by the employment exchange to renew his registration on the unemployment roster.

Without a job, Rawat spends much of the day watching television soaps and dreaming of a house in affluent south Delhi and a Scorpio SUV.

"When I dream, I am a different person," he said.

[Theo_Fidel]

Nandakumar,

That is indeed the nub of what we are going over. Is the present slow down a cyclic feature or are there real brakes the nature of India is putting on growth. I'm of the view that enough has occurred over the past 3-4 years to say that the nature of Indian society itself is now putting a brake on growth. Without further social reform, economic growth/reform will continue to be hampered.

Here are a few of the issues that have cropped up.

- Unemployability. Kids are being brought up by illiterate/semiliterate mothers. No matter how many years of school they do they are simply unusable. This issue has come up again and again and again.
- Violence against women. Assam case, Kushboo case, Haryana case, etc. I suspect if you went and polled the population of India on the question, 'Are men & women equal', a large majority, IMHO over 80% would say no. In fact a large proportion of BRF itself will say no and I have a sneaky suspicion they might be close to a majority as well. As long as 1/2 our working age population is condemned to a non-productive semiliterate life our economic potential will remain cloudy.
- Caste violence. It continues to be a problem with every now and then a major killing hitting the newspapers. More than that the caste divisions are now making it impossible to get a universal uniform education to our children. Without such universal 15+ years of education all will be lost.
- Education. I can't stress how important it is to get our children through 10 then 15 years of education. Right now they are in the 4-5 years of education range. I do not agree with Vina that as the economy grows this will happen automatically. While a chunk of the population is indeed educating in private schools the vast majority do not get a worthwhile education. I have talked about this many times before but if you go into the employment market and try to hire in India you will realize just how much dross there is out there. Most of the diploma's in India are not worth the paper they are printed on. This is more than a reflection on the institutions, the kids who show up are often unteachable and lack even the most elementary knowledge on how the world works.

To continue growing at 10% per annum we have to get serious about these things rather than thinking that if there is more money these things will fix themselves.

[Abhijeet]

Good post. Education -- of many different kinds, but it starts with formal schooling -- is the key factor in development. The biggest shock of living in India as an adult (after not having been here for many years) is how underdeveloped most people are mentally -- the average person has very rudimentary facilities for logical or analytical thinking. You can see this basic stupidity reflected everywhere in society.

I've been involved in hiring a number of people over the last few years in India, and the average level of thinking skill, initiative, even basic communication, is just incredibly low. These are engineering graduates, hardly the lowest rung of society. I know a number of very smart people in India as well, but they are at the very far end of the bell curve, a vanishingly small percentage of the population. The median of the bell curve is heavily skewed towards the "limited mental faculties" end of the scale.

[putnanja]

Act now to stave off 'junk grade' tag, Chidambaram warns Cabinet

[member_23629]

The biggest shock of living in India as an adult (after not having been here for many years) is how underdeveloped most people are mentally -- the average person has very rudimentary facilities for logical or analytical thinking. You can see this basic stupidity reflected everywhere in society.

Agree totally -- Living in India, I have seen and experienced this too, the complete absence of analytical thinking of the average Indian on any subject, from politics to national security to day-to-day office work. This is also acute among women. I am still to understand the reason.

[member_23629]

The biggest shock of living in India as an adult (after not having been here for many years) is how underdeveloped most people are mentally -- the average person has very rudimentary facilities for logical or analytical thinking. You can see this basic stupidity reflected everywhere in society.

Agree totally -- Living in India, I have seen and experienced this too, the complete absence of analytical thinking of the average Indian on any subject, from politics to national security to day-to-day office work. This is also acute among women. I am still to understand the reason.

[disha]

^
Agree totally -- Living in India US, I have seen and experienced this too, the complete absence of analytical thinking of the average Indian American on any subject, from politics to national security to day-to-day office work. This is also acute among women kids, teens, tweens, women, gays, blacks, american indians, indians and chineese.

I am still to know and understand the reason., I do not know how to fix it.

[Abhijeet]

No -- you think it's equal-equal, but it's really not.

[RamaY]

Most of the diploma's in India are not worth the paper they are printed on. This is more than a reflection on the institutions, the kids who show up are often unteachable and lack even the most elementary knowledge on how the world works.

Theoji,

This is a circular problem. On one side we want to apply caste-based (due to their birth) reservations, to the extent that people get to engg/medical fields with <30% marks just because of their caste, in all fields including education and then we blame that the academic and research institutions are not good at producing good graduates.

Give me any child for 15 years and I can make him/her better than average graduate.

It is never the problem with the children or one's birth. The problem lies in the quality of education and family care the child receives in his/her formative years.

The quality of education is the responsibility of government, academic community. This is where the governance failed and the caste bases reservations hurt the society overall. Any nation that wants to give the best education to its children will not offer birth-based reservations to teaching/research fields.

The family care is the responsibility of family and society. Here the society is failing its duty by pumping unnecessary hate mongering and victim hood in to young minds.

[kish]

NSE world No. 1 in equity trades

India's National Stock Exchange (NSE) has emerged as the world's largest bourse in terms of the number of trades in equity segment during September.

As per the latest data compiled by the World Federation of Exchanges (WFE), a total of 11.64 crore trades took place in the equity segment of NSE in September this year, making it the world's largest exchange on this category.

NSE was followed by Korea Exchange and NYSE Euronext (US) at the second and the third positions respectively.

Moreover, the NSE has maintained its numero uno place in the Asia-Pacific region for the nine month period from January-September, 2012

Other bourses that made their place in the top 10 were Nasdaq OMX (4th), Shenzhen SE (5th), Shanghai SE (6th), Tokyo SE Group (8th), TMX Group (9th) and London SE Group (10th)

[disha]

I never said it is equal-equal, you are taking it as equal-equal.

Just because you can post at BRF does not make you a non-ignorant. Ignorance is universal, and at the same time cultural.

There are engineers in India who "do not know" and "are unable to put together a sentence in any cohesive manner". There are people in US who cannot "put together a sentence in a cohesive manner" and thus are unable to know. Same situation different perspectives.

It is like a joke in Telugu I heard years back "In USA, even the beggars know how to talk in English".

Again Abhijeet, here are two statements that one can break it down:

the average person has very rudimentary facilities for logical or analytical thinking. You can see this basic stupidity reflected everywhere in society.

You just called the average Indian society stupid.

I've been involved in hiring a number of people over the last few years in India, and the average level of thinking skill, initiative, even basic communication, is just incredibly low.

I have also been involved in hiring a number of people over the last few years in US, and the average level of thinking skill, initiative, even basic communication, is just incredibly low.

And I am talking about engineers, and some from Berkeley and some from Stanford! And I can apply above to really smart persons!

What you said was based on your experiences and then ignorantly proceeded to apply in general. What were you thinking?

And what initiative have you shown to fix the situation you found yourself in? Did you try to educate and that too patiently without expecting a return? Did you try to impart your wisdom? There was no intiative.

And if you think I am reading the entire thing incorrectly., than you yourself are failing in basic communication.

I do not want to belabour this further, but in the rush to do "rhona-dhona"., please do not lose your perspective.

[disha]

Give me any child for 15 years and I can make him/her better than average graduate.

It is never the problem with the children or one's birth. The problem lies in the quality of education and family care the child receives in his/her formative years.

The quality of education is the responsibility of government, academic community. This is where the governance failed and the caste bases reservations hurt the society overall. Any nation that wants to give the best education to its children will not offer birth-based reservations to teaching/research fields.

The family care is the responsibility of family and society. Here the society is failing its duty by pumping unnecessary hate mongering and victim hood in to young minds.

Precisely.

[Theo_Fidel]

Agree totally -- Living in India, I have seen and experienced this too, the complete absence of analytical thinking of the average Indian on any subject, from politics to national security to day-to-day office work. This is also acute among women. I am still to understand the reason.

The answer is very simple. The analytical mind is frozen by age 5. If you don't develop your analytical abilities by then you are pretty much done. Study after study has shown this. The vast majority of children in India are brought up by illiterate/semi-literate women. They simply can not pass on analytical ability to their children.

This is true of the USA too. There is a chunk of American women, about 20%, concentrated in the South and Midwest who for all functional purposes are illiterate. The children they bring up tend towards these same non-logical thought processes. There are always exceptions but the broad trends have always been clear.

The problem with India is that this illiterate/semi-literate class of Indian women is about 70% of the female population. Hence no matter the years of schooling the males receive they trend towards an inability to think things through. I have often said that we should ignore the men and educate all the girls we can find. Their children will automatically become literate.

------------------------------------------

Abhijeet,

I think your point has just been made for you.

[disha]

Theo, it is just not illiterate and semi-literate women or mal-nourishment or weak social indicators.

There is also the field effect of the book, where in a thump on a particular book introduces eddy currents in the brain that throws all logic out of a person. You yourself have demonstrated it various times in the nuclear thread. The more extreme effect is shown by our baki neighbours.

And no, it is not just the first 5 years that are important, but also the next 10 years after that. And BTW, the brain does not stop developing till the age of 30 (atleast)*., so there is hope. For some though, de-addiction and de-toxification may be a better course.

* http://www.news-medical.net/news/201109 ... earch.aspx

[member_23677]

No -- you think it's equal-equal, but it's really not.

For you.. ever met a redneck amreeki? Although I agree, some very intelligent people do exist in US, but the general population lacks basic knowledge about their and other's country. I haven't met many bright ones so far, although they have lots of confidence and aggression, their knowledge is pretty much zero. I would like to know which village/town/city you interviewed people in. The area I lived in... Pune, Mumbai and went to for official visits, Delhi, Coimbatore, Bengaluru, Satara,Jaipur,Jaisalmer.... were quite upto the marks in regards to personality and intelligence. Politically can't say, but their logic definitely isn't as low as you are exaggerating and was definitely 100% better than a US commoner.

[Arjun]

That is indeed the nub of what we are going over. Is the present slow down a cyclic feature or are there real brakes the nature of India is putting on growth. I'm of the view that enough has occurred over the past 3-4 years to say that the nature of Indian society itself is now putting a brake on growth. Without further social reform, economic growth/reform will continue to be hampered.

Well, well - Theo ji.

I am glad you seem to be coming around to agreeing with what I've been saying over the last few pages of this thread.

There are only two routes to economic success for any region in the new economy (leaving aside short -term economic growth from natural resources ala the Saudis): (i) education / skills development that increases regional employability quotient and (ii) building entrepreneurial social capital that increases quantity and quality of entrepreneurs within the region.

As with almost anything else, India presents a highly diverse picture on both these fronts. On the one hand, there are some castes that would surpass the best globally in knowledge-driven occupations, while others would surpass in entrepreneurial ability - on the other hand there are castes that are sub-par on one or both of these parameters. So, as suggested earlier - the right solution would be to identify those castes that are behind in either education or entrepreneurship or both, and bring in the right 'social capital' or reform of input factors for these parameters - so that these castes can compete effectively and grow in wealth. Note that I mention input factors, as opposed to determining output factors ala reservation.

The other point, as Disha rightly points out - is not only to consider caste, but also consider religion in the mix. If there are religious dogmas that provide an impediment to climbing up the pole in either knowledge-based professions or in entrepreneurial abilities- such dogmas need to be reformed or suppressed.

[subhamoy.das]

If the original caste system was fluid enough for anyone to enter any profession, so that a father could be a priest and the son could be a businessman -- what was the reason to have a caste system at all - Brahmin, Kshatriya etc? Why not simply call occupations by their own names -- doctors or traders or priests -- and leave it at that?

That would be cutting too many VERTICAL(s) or BU(s) in the society. A caste was supposed to be a CAPABILITY based VERTICAL but became blood line based VERTICAL. Can u image what will happen to a company of todays world if its verticals are filled with relatives of the vertical head ! It will soon go out of business and will pull the company down and will have to be eventually dissolved or filled with folks who are a good fit for that vertical regardless their relationship with the vertical head!

[Theo_Fidel]

Arjun,

I don't think we ever disagreed. We both want to see a wealthy prosperous India, unlike some here. There has never been two routes to prosperity however. There has always only been one. Like I said there are no shortcuts.

1. Education
2. Progressive society. Women women women
3. Strong law based institutions
4. Hardwork

Anti-reservation groups forget that reservations purpose was to change the status of communities, mostly because the status quo was intolerable. Progress has been made but not enough. It is not meant to be a 'feature' of society at all. It is like poisoning the well to kill the poisonous critters. We have killed some of the critters but unfortunately not all.

I continue to challenge your premise that certain castes are good at certain things. The claim is yours so can you back it up with data? IMO this is completely false. There is no such inherent advantage within castes. The division exists due to social enforcement not better performance. If we are to progress this manner of thinking has to come to an end.

WRT religion I expected better logic from you. It is we who decide what religion is, not the other way around. If we are stupid our religion will be stupid and sound stupid, if we are smart and educated our religion will be smart. It has ever been this way. This why there is such a difference between having a degree and being 'educated'. And why religion has no effect one way or the other on economic potential. Those who have a questionable attachment to reality and logic are doomed to poison their societies with religion.

You can see it even in the USA where 'degreed' folks are twisting themselves into knots trying to explain how rape and pregnancy are a blessing from God.

Functional illiterates, every one of them.

[RamaY]

Self-delete

[RamaY]

Self Delete

[RamaY]

self delete

[Abhijeet]

Standard derailing of a useful economic discussion by bringing in religion, Hindu dharma, Abrahamic religions and other nonsense. Pretty par for the course nowadays, of course.

[RamaY]

Yes. We will leave the caste nonsense in the public forum and take the rebuttals to off-topic forum, that is not visible to general public.

A nice strategy.

[RamaY]

Good post. Education -- of many different kinds, but it starts with formal schooling -- is the key factor in development. The biggest shock of living in India as an adult (after not having been here for many years) is how underdeveloped most people are mentally -- the average person has very rudimentary facilities for logical or analytical thinking. You can see this basic stupidity reflected everywhere in society.

I've been involved in hiring a number of people over the last few years in India, and the average level of thinking skill, initiative, even basic communication, is just incredibly low. These are engineering graduates, hardly the lowest rung of society. I know a number of very smart people in India as well, but they are at the very far end of the bell curve, a vanishingly small percentage of the population. The median of the bell curve is heavily skewed towards the "limited mental faculties" end of the scale.

This post is about economy. Because....

It tell us somehow the people you came across are underdeveloped? Is it because they didn't understand the lane-system or stopping at the unviewable stop signs or what?

[Ameet]

Forbes India Richest

http://www.forbes.com/sites/naazneenkar ... 0-richest/

There are now 61 billionaires in all, 4 more than last year.

[kish]

India, US top gold jewellery exporters

Italy has lost its position as the world's premier gold jewellery exporter, overtaken by India and the United States, and risks slipping further due to its high cost base and tariff barriers.

Mumbai-based Gitanjali, one of the world's largest diamond and jewellery manufacturer-retailers, acquired a handful of Italian luxury jewellery brands during the economic downturn, and now sells their pieces in strategic growth markets.

Gitanjali has opened a store showcasing two of its upscale Italian brands, Stefan Hafner and Nouvelle Bague, in Dalian, China