India-US Strategic News and Discussion

D Roy · Post by **D Roy** » 01 Nov 2012 11:59

Apologies if posted earlier,

concerns of Hindus are near to my heart: Tulsi Gabbard

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 01 Nov 2012 15:40

D Roy wrote:Apologies if posted earlier,

concerns of Hindus are near to my heart: Tulsi Gabbard

Tulsi Gabbard was interviewed by Aziz Haniffa, a Muslim. Good to see that Tulsi was so forthcoming about her views on the stifling situation in a Muslim society, e.g. in Kuwait. Also I did not really like the interviewer Aziz Haniffa making a big deal of a difference between Indian Americans and Hindu Americans. It shows his own prejudices and desire to stand apart.

I am really impressed by her responses, her views and her background. Wish her the best of luck and I hope Indian Americans give wholehearted support to her.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 01 Nov 2012 17:34

Manny wrote:Why are people going after G.W here? Sheesh!

He is not in power and when he was, he did right by India. They would prefer a pro China, Pro Paki Lefty I suppose.

As BC first articulated, this bogus nuke deal and munna status for TSP along with Fsolas and the like is equal equal in another guise. The fact that TSP has not paid a price and in fact gained big time as a result of both 9/11 and 26/11 which were TSP handiwork, especially the latter, tells you the huge gains TSP has made. Any by TSP, it means pakijabi dominated RAPE including TSPA. And make no mistake about it, eventually TSP will get a nuke deal, after India becomes nuke nude under a series of MMS type "Indian" PMs.

pentaiah · Post by **pentaiah** » 01 Nov 2012 17:47

Aziz Hanifa was/ used to be the Capitol Hill correspondent for India Abroad news paper ( of Gopal raju)later taken over by Rediff of Balakrishnan fame.

Aziz was a decent correspondent and always championed India's cause with out ambiguity.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 01 Nov 2012 23:05

Rudradev wrote:This is not "Strategic News" but involves a family which could have been any one of ours.
http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/loc ... 95691.html
Baby Abducted, Grandmother Found Dead in Upper Merion

https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petiti ... f/01HZFLhB

This petition is going around asking everyone to sign.It says that the accused/murderer Raghu can be turned to Indian custody and sent back to India and hence the petitioner (who i am assuming is himself/herself a US based NRI) is asking Raghu to award death penalty in US itslef.

What is troubling is that not the case itslef (I am all for Raghu being punished for his acts) but the precedent it will set in long term. The US pressures Indian govt to transfer US citizens who commited crimes in India to be tried and punished in US itslef and not in India. But in this case the US NRIs themsleves are petitioning that the accused be punished in US itslef and not be sent to India.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 Nov 2012 23:25

When the crime of murder is committed in US where is the question of deporting the guy to India?

I think its NRI red herring for powerplay. There are three Telugu associations and might be trying to be more MUTU than the other to appeal to new adherents.

Christopher Sidor · Post by **Christopher Sidor** » 01 Nov 2012 23:31

^^^^
+1
I agree, makes no sense. Let him be tried for manslaughter in USA.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 Nov 2012 23:33

No its murder. But then the DA will decide it.

lakshmikanth · Post by **lakshmikanth** » 01 Nov 2012 23:34

It first degree murder of one person, second degree murder of the child. Capital crime according to a friend familiar with the law.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 02 Nov 2012 03:31

The District Attorney (DA) is elected and typically a DA seeks higher power as a state or federal judge, member of congress, senator, and governor. If he is viewed as weak on crime, in particular the brutal murder of a child and elderly woman, then the DA has forfeited his career. This is a case for clear victory for the DA's office, but more than likely the perpetrator (Raghu) will plead guilty in court to spare himself the death penalty in exchange for life in prison. At that point a judge can deport him after a period in prison. It may be better to lobby the DA's office and ask for the death penalty and in the case Raghu pleads not guilty, he should be given life in prison without chance of parole or deportation.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 05 Nov 2012 02:12

Election rigging, voter machine fraud, voter suppression, manipulating redistricting, voters intimidation.. Ityadi one would think we are discussing a 'third world' country. Nope it is US of A. Republican Party ===== INC onlee.

pentaiah · Post by **pentaiah** » 05 Nov 2012 04:58

Brings back memories of reading Perry Mason, Della street, Lt. Drake , Hamilton Burger the
District attorney....

Where have those days gone reading so many and learning so much....

Now just a
Case of the moth eaten mink

pentaiah · Post by **pentaiah** » 05 Nov 2012 05:00

Swamy g ji agree with you how is that GOP is bereft of any intellectual honesty, they are no different from Taliban and worse when you add the tea party crowd

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 05 Nov 2012 09:02

I think good and reasonable conservatism is lost in GOP, or best put on back burner. Hatred for one man has turned the party into a crazy one. See the lines in Florida? Hear the lies of Willard?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 05 Nov 2012 09:05

The interesting thing about this double murder is that the motive and modus operandi are like similar crimes in India. Here is an Indian origin man noting the wealth of another Indian origin family, using his ethnicity/social contacts to get close and then turning on them.

Actually in my view the man deserves the death penalty, provided the crimes were committed as reported. Sometimes in India these people are dealt with in special situations - i.e someone will simply stab him and kill him.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 05 Nov 2012 10:34

SwamyG wrote:Election rigging, voter machine fraud, voter suppression, manipulating redistricting, voters intimidation.. Ityadi one would think we are discussing a 'third world' country. Nope it is US of A. Republican Party ===== INC onlee.

Actually, all parties will engage in such activity when they are in a majority in a state. Redistricting, or Gerrymandering as it is known in the US, is completely legal and is taken advantage of in states when one party is in control of both the governor and legislature. The same is true for voter intimidation/suppression. Don't think only the Republicans are capable of this.

This election is very interesting as in 2008 Obama overwhelmingly got the wimmins vote, but may not have as much now in 2012. Both SHQ and I voted early this year. SHQ voted straight Republican and I voted straight Democratic. When in 2008 both of us voted straight Democratic. SHQ was impressed with Romney in the first debate, not because of his performance, but she saw his sons and grandchildren on stage with such a large family. She immediately concluded that Romney was a stable family man who promoted the well being of his grandchildren; therefore, he must be ok. Who knows what logic flows through the minds of wimmin?

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 05 Nov 2012 11:16

Manny wrote:Why are people going after G.W here? Sheesh!
He is not in power and when he was, he did right by India. They would prefer a pro China, Pro Paki Lefty I suppose.

George W did not do right for India. I have not come across any POTUS who was pro India or did right for India. Make no mistake about this.
Gautam

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 05 Nov 2012 16:13

I supported GWB in both times. Whatever he did when he was POTU eventually led to Indian long-term interests. This time I support Obama for that he
- wants to improve education for Americans (then need to move from the nonsical subjects to sciences so they can think)
- wants to bring manufacturing to US (puts one country in its place, hopefully)
- wants to bring the military back (will force neighbors of Afghanistan, their own cleanup)

pentaiah · Post by **pentaiah** » 05 Nov 2012 18:23

Please tell SHQ very humbly that for a Mormon
Romney is failure with such small family

He failed to exploit the book of Mormon granted potentional
of sir ing many more

Lazy bum never performed to peak in bed as well

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 05 Nov 2012 19:36

pentaiah wrote:Please tell SHQ very humbly that for a Mormon
Romney is failure with such small family

He failed to exploit the book of Mormon granted potentional
of sir ing many more

Lazy bum never performed to peak in bed as well

WHy attack romney on his faith when there many other reasons of not voting for him?

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 05 Nov 2012 19:36

I have to admit that I long underestimated Romney. I never thought he could actually put up this close a fight. but in hindsight, it should have been clear. during the Republican primary debates, he was able to clinically move from one opponent to other and put them all in their place without bullying them. not many can do this. I should have noted this earlier.

my final call is that it will be insanely close. perhaps even Pennsylvania might end up a neck-to-neck situation. if Penn shows a strong Rep performance, things won't look good for Obama. he needs to hold onto that state no matter what. I will watch this state closely tomorrow. if there are early indications that in traditional Democratic districts of Penn, Obama is either loosing or winning only by small margins, then the chances of Romney winning go up dramatically. watch for this state. Pittsburgh+suburbs & Philadelphia+suburbs: that is the Democratic bastion, and most of the time Democrats get a significant surplus here to offset the beating they take in the interior of the state. there are some noises which point to Democrats having lost their way in these areas. watch the results here closely. and of course, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa also will play a major role.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 05 Nov 2012 20:59

DeveshJi,

Go back and check any election. The media creates excitement with this Statistical dead heat crap. Even republican pollsters like Rasmussen say that winning PA is a republican fantasy.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 05 Nov 2012 21:46

Penn might still go for Obama but the Democratic bastions are not so staunchly Democratic this time around. especially in Western Pennsylvania. the Industrial belt was never that dear to Obama. I'm not talking about Fox News here. there are other independent polls which show that Western Penn, the traditional firewall for Dems, might vote "strangely".

also, don't know if anybody's seen the early voting stats for Ohio: there are about 100,000 more Republican early voters this time around compared to 2008, and Democrats have 150,000 less than 2008. that pretty much compensates for Obama's victory margin in 2008 in Ohio. this is what everybody is talking about. and even Democratic pundits appear nervous about it. the trend in the past few elections has been that Democrats always do much better than Republicans during early voting, which compensates for the beating that they take on Election Day. this is the usual trend over the last several cycles. this time around, the early voting stats are not big enough to compensate, and this is making them nervous.

at this point, I would give NC, VA, FL, and CO to Romney.

Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, and New Hampshire will decide the election, IMVHO.

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 05 Nov 2012 22:58

Unless 100+ state level polls done over the last month are systemically biased or erroneous, basic statistics suggests that Obama should win comfortably. There is a class of political pundits whose livelihood is threatened by basic math, so they are trying to peddle a "Dead heat" nonsense.

It is possible that there is a systemic bias, but without it, this race hasn't been close for a long time.

pentaiah · Post by **pentaiah** » 05 Nov 2012 23:19

x posting from US presidential...

Romney is out and out liar
So consumate he is
As would any mormon
with many a woman
He has no spine
Only supine
die is cast
As we find nation
Just after election
Cast away
To fade away

PS : I am no democrat or a republican just undecided with intellect devoid.

PS : I am no democrat or a republican just undecided with intellect devoid.

Mihaylo · Post by **Mihaylo** » 06 Nov 2012 00:33

devesh wrote:Penn might still go for Obama but the Democratic bastions are not so staunchly Democratic this time around. especially in Western Pennsylvania. the Industrial belt was never that dear to Obama. I'm not talking about Fox News here. there are other independent polls which show that Western Penn, the traditional firewall for Dems, might vote "strangely".

also, don't know if anybody's seen the early voting stats for Ohio: there are about 100,000 more Republican early voters this time around compared to 2008, and Democrats have 150,000 less than 2008. that pretty much compensates for Obama's victory margin in 2008 in Ohio. this is what everybody is talking about. and even Democratic pundits appear nervous about it. the trend in the past few elections has been that Democrats always do much better than Republicans during early voting, which compensates for the beating that they take on Election Day. this is the usual trend over the last several cycles. this time around, the early voting stats are not big enough to compensate, and this is making them nervous.

at this point, I would give NC, VA, FL, and CO to Romney.

Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, and New Hampshire will decide the election, IMVHO.

FL, NC, VA, CO and WI -> Romney

NV and MI -> Obama

All Romney needs is one of the below
NH, OH, PA, IA and possibly MN

Also MN is a wild card this year because of same sex marriage referendum on the ballot which will bring out the Evangelicals in droves and also because of a better ground operation which came out of the recall effort of Gov. Walker a couple of years back.

I feel that it will be a squeaker for Romney. Not the landslide predicted by some (or the win for Bronco Bama).

-M

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 06 Nov 2012 00:37

BO will win all this dead heat stuff is nonsense any incumbent unless he screws up royally will win. They have the whole admin behind them to get people out to vote. Mittu has very little to no chance.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 06 Nov 2012 00:42

R-man,

I would not be that confident. The wild card will be white vote. If the reps get whites to come out en masse, O couldd be trouble.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 06 Nov 2012 00:47

From a India-US trade PoV, how would a Romney administration work with India? Does Bain Capital have any investments in companies that do business in India?

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 06 Nov 2012 01:18

CRamS wrote:R-man,

I would not be that confident. The wild card will be white vote. If the reps get whites to come out en masse, O couldd be trouble.

So who is voting for and has voted for Repubs so far? Greens? Reds?

What you are talking about is called "Bradley Effect" - look it up.

The reality is that if such a trend is real, it would not be invisible to the hundreds of surverys taken so far.

None of this means that an Obama win is a certainty, but is surely the most probable outcome.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 06 Nov 2012 01:44

Rman, what hidden factors can cause a R win?

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 06 Nov 2012 02:14

CRamS wrote:Rman, what hidden factors can cause a R win?

(1) There is a chance that all the polls have some systematic bias against Romney
(2) There is a chance that the GOP "ground game" is somehow orders of magnitude better than Obama's
(3) etc.

What I'm trying to say is that based purely on the measurable and observable, a Romney win appears unlikely. Stats guru Nate Silver gives Romney a 15-20% chance, which is still a chance, right?

That said, I'm a firm believer in statistics. Betting sites like InTrade have Obama at a 65-70% probability of victory and it has been in that range for a while. Of the 10 or so "swing" states, Romney is leading in only Florida and N.Carolina and Obama has a clear lead in at least 6. Even if Obama loses Ohio, he can win the Electoral votes.

If the unlikely happens, let's see, but when different statistical analyses and market trends point to a 70%+ chance of one person's success, it would be stupid to call it a toss-up.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 06 Nov 2012 02:25

CRS, Last night "All things Considered" had a commentator using poker lingo saying BO has three in row and an ace in the hole in NV. OTH MR could pull some other winning combo but unlikely.

Mihaylo · Post by **Mihaylo** » 06 Nov 2012 02:25

Almost all polls taken so far have either over sampled Democrats or under sampled Republicans. The latest CNN poll was a D +11. They are assuming that there would be higher Democratic turnout this time just like 2008. Hard party identity between Democrats and Republicans as per the latest Gallup poll is +4 (1 + 3 respectively) for Republicans and among leaners (leaning R or leaning D). Additionally, independents are who win the elections since 1990. Obama's win in 2008 was partly because of independents and partly because of voter enthusiasm for O. Romney is winning with independents this time by +10. Add to that higher enthu among Republicans as compared to Democrats.

Also, the early polling advantage that usually favours Democrats is almost non-existent this year. Ohio early polling numbers show that it is D+77k approx. However, that number hides the fact that early voting for D is down by 22% and up by 30% for R as compared to 2008. Polls are primarily linear and two dimensional. Election day is three dimensional. Voter turnout and a great ground game is the key, and if there is a high voter turnout in places like Ohio or Wisconsin etc, we could see a Romney win.

Of course, I could be eating crow curry for dinner Wednesday night

)

-M

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 06 Nov 2012 02:27

With whine or without?

Mihaylo · Post by **Mihaylo** » 06 Nov 2012 02:46

ramana wrote:With whine or without?

or maybe I will have grass curry Paki ishtyle

no whine it is haraaam. Single malt onlee saar

-M

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 06 Nov 2012 02:57

I trust Gallup's "Likely Voter" and Rasmussen Poll. these two are reliable. at least since 1992, the results of their surveys right before Election Day all turned out to be true. as of last Thursday, Gallup's "Likely Voters" poll said R:51%, O:46%. all other polls like CBS, etc I don't trust much. Gallup and Rasmussen get it right. including in 2008, both predicted a 6-8% advantage for Obama and that's how it turned out. this time, they're predicting DEAD HEAT day after day in all of their polls.

Today, Gallup says, R:49%, O:48%.

Today, Rasmussen says the same as Gallup.

it might even be possible that Obama will actually loose the popular vote. either way, this won't be "comfortable" for Obama. he might just squeak through with the bare minimum.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 06 Nov 2012 03:38

DevesJi,

Please go to five thirtyeight blog on NYT. Nate Silver has every poll listed. He uses those#s as input to his own model and he predicts 307 electoral votes for O with a 86.3% probability.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 06 Nov 2012 03:46

CRS, I talked to my son. He says 538 has its own bias for Democrats and thus take it as another data point only.
Anyway less than 48 hours.

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 06 Nov 2012 04:01

and how is all this nonsense of reliability of polls related to INDIA- US strategic news? Nukkad or some other thread would be a better place