India-US Strategic News and Discussion

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 06 Nov 2012 04:05

we've actually done a commendable job mightily resisting discussing US elections for the past several months. now, it is down to the last 24 hours.

chalo, jaane do. perhaps, 1 or 2 pages of "unrelated" US news. the presidential election of US is, after all, not any garden variety "election".

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 06 Nov 2012 04:08

RamanaGaru,

Is your son also a # crunching wizard like NS?

.

But I'll tell you this. If NS's prediction bombs, his credibility as also that of "liberal" NYT will take a massive hit no matter what spin he puts by blaming inaccuracies in polls. As it is I puke watching even 5 mins of the Nazi Fox news channel. And if NS's prediction crashes, they will have a field day mocking him, and they will make my blood boil like TSP RAPE do to me.

.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 06 Nov 2012 04:16

Lets take it the election thread.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 06 Nov 2012 04:18

CRamS garu,

relax. just step back and take a look for yourself. forget the pundits. it's easy to get lost in the hungama. some times, our inner voice tells better than most. mine is telling me that this one will be very very close. there will be no sweep like 2008. whichever pundit is claiming that is an abject moron. even the voices claiming that "comfortable victory" for Obama might be seriously compromised here. this one will be very close.

Nandu · Post by **Nandu** » 06 Nov 2012 04:19

Mort Walker wrote:SHQ voted straight Republican and I voted straight Democratic. When in 2008 both of us voted straight Democratic. SHQ was impressed with Romney in the first debate, not because of his performance, but she saw his sons and grandchildren on stage with such a large family. She immediately concluded that Romney was a stable family man who promoted the well being of his grandchildren; therefore, he must be ok. Who knows what logic flows through the minds of wimmin?

Mort-ji, she has a point. While Obama has a stable family himself, he comes from a single mother family and was raised by his grandmother. My SHQ had a similar reaction when she saw that Obama's sister doesn't look anything like him, and I explained why.

It is not incorrect to say that Republicans are more supportive of the traditional family structures, while Dems are not explicitly against those, they are more tolerant of things like out of wedlock births, gay marriage etc, which I think most Indian Americans do not favor. On the other hand, Reps have this undercurrent that all good values, including family values, come only from Christianity, so there you go.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 06 Nov 2012 04:24

devesh wrote:CRamS garu,

relax. just step back and take a look for yourself. forget the pundits. it's easy to get lost in the hungama. some times, our inner voice tells better than most. mine is telling me that this one will be very very close. there will be no sweep like 2008. whichever pundit is claiming that is an abject moron. even the voices claiming that "comfortable victory" for Obama might be seriously compromised here. this one will be very close.

We need inner voices from battleground states. Sitting in west/east coast, you can't predict based on inner voices. From west/east coast, inner voices say Obama.

I picked loser guy in 2008, I'm picking loser guy again in 2012.

Mihaylo · Post by **Mihaylo** » 06 Nov 2012 04:31

CRamS wrote:DevesJi,

Please go to five thirtyeight blog on NYT. Nate Silver has every poll listed. He uses those#s as input to his own model and he predicts 307 electoral votes for O with a 86.3% probability.

Nate Silver is definitely a democrat. So, I wouldn't be surprised that his numbers are skewed.

-M

pentaiah · Post by **pentaiah** » 06 Nov 2012 04:44

Aditya_V wrote:
pentaiah wrote:Please tell SHQ very humbly that for a Mormon
Romney is failure with such small family

He failed to exploit the book of Mormon granted potentional
of sir ing many more

Lazy bum never performed to peak in bed as well
WHy attack romney on his faith when there many other reasons of not voting for him?

Romney does not have faith, even in himself
He never stood for anything,
He bends to the current winds

When a man disavows what he said few minutes ago, where is the question of faith in him

"I saw my father march with Martin Luther King." (Romney's campaign later admitted that they didn't march on the same day, or in the same city)

Ok let's try some doosra here
When a faith filled Mitt says with misty eye My "father" he must in all faithfulness refer to the holy father aka Devine force walking with Martin Luther like in the footsteps I hope you have seen and read

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 06 Nov 2012 05:30

pentaiah wrote: Romney does not have faith, even in himself
He never stood for anything,
He bends to the current winds

When a man disavows what he said few minutes ago, where is the question of faith in him

"I saw my father march with Martin Luther King." (Romney's campaign later admitted that they didn't march on the same day, or in the same city)

Ok let's try some doosra here
When a faith filled Mitt says with misty eye My "father" he must in all faithfulness refer to the holy father aka Devine force walking with Martin Luther like in the footsteps I hope you have seen and read

So he is a politician like the other guy :- http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski ... s-flip-flo

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 06 Nov 2012 06:11

Mihaylo wrote:
CRamS wrote:DevesJi,

Please go to five thirtyeight blog on NYT. Nate Silver has every poll listed. He uses those#s as input to his own model and he predicts 307 electoral votes for O with a 86.3% probability.

Nate Silver is definitely a democrat. So, I wouldn't be surprised that his numbers are skewed.

-M

His numbers? You know he gets his numbers from various polls that he does not conduct, right? He is not like Rasmussen.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 06 Nov 2012 06:26

CRamS wrote:R-man,

I would not be that confident. The wild card will be white vote. If the reps get whites to come out en masse, O couldd be trouble.

Only voter suppression is the wild card.

Mortji.. sure anybody will indulge in fraud. But only one party has shown what it can do. If not for the fraud element this is Obama's to win. Willard has lots of money and has said anything the moment required.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 06 Nov 2012 07:41

Rasmussen is most definitely not reliable.

They do only landline. The group that has enough money to stay home and not work, or is old - is heavily republican. That's an inbuilt bias in their sampling.

Look at the trend of decreasing landlines and increasing cell only demographic - which is not included in Rasmussen.

Manny · Post by **Manny** » 06 Nov 2012 07:46

I hope Obama wins.... I need him to restrict H1b Visa so some of us would have a job in this economy.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 06 Nov 2012 07:50

Mihaylo wrote: Nate Silver is definitely a democrat. So, I wouldn't be surprised that his numbers are skewed.

-M

lol. being a democrat means "his numbers" are screwed?

He only runs the logic on reported numbers in public domain. Go ahead and show how his logic is biased.

He himself (and many others) have shown that the state polls can be statistically biased and the probability of that is less than 20%. The same percent that Mitt has for winning. IOW, ONLY if all the state polls are statistically biased - Romney has a chance to win and that chance is less than 20%.

Voter suppression can only go so far. I think the get-out-the-vote efforts of the democrats will overcome that enough in enough swing states to push Obama over the line comfortably.

I also have this thought increasingly as it gets closer. It is going to be a landslide and Obama breaks 300 EV easily.

Republicans have a lot to ponder about their future with the 'angry white man' becoming a minority. This is probably the last election where their current strategy has a chance. The demographics will put this strategy as failure from the get go in the next election.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 06 Nov 2012 07:52

btw, 538 has O breaking 90% today.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 06 Nov 2012 07:53

both Rasmussen and Gallup are reliable. they have their poll results from elections from decades ago. I have compared their results from 1992 to 2008. they got it right everytime. no questions asked. they accurate predicted the voting percentages in every cycle.

forget what the pundits spin about Rasmussen. they are reliable, as past record shows. same with Gallup. these 2 agencies are the only ones I trust. all others are maya.

Mihaylo · Post by **Mihaylo** » 06 Nov 2012 08:30

Gus wrote:
Mihaylo wrote: Nate Silver is definitely a democrat. So, I wouldn't be surprised that his numbers are skewed.

-M
lol. being a democrat means "his numbers" are screwed?

He only runs the logic on reported numbers in public domain. Go ahead and show how his logic is biased.

He himself (and many others) have shown that the state polls can be statistically biased and the probability of that is less than 20%. The same percent that Mitt has for winning. IOW, ONLY if all the state polls are statistically biased - Romney has a chance to win and that chance is less than 20%.

Voter suppression can only go so far. I think the get-out-the-vote efforts of the democrats will overcome that enough in enough swing states to push Obama over the line comfortably.

I also have this thought increasingly as it gets closer. It is going to be a landslide and Obama breaks 300 EV easily.

Republicans have a lot to ponder about their future with the 'angry white man' becoming a minority. This is probably the last election where their current strategy has a chance. The demographics will put this strategy as failure from the get go in the next election.

Well, he is a democrat and there is a chance that his polls are skewed. http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timst ... ork-times/
I go with the assumption that all polls (barring Rasmussen and Gallup, I think) have either a left or right leaning bias inherent in them. I just look at the underlying numbers, like % of Democrats/Republicans/Independents in the sample, key issue identified in the poll, overall voter enthusiasm, early voting stats, etc, etc.

Anyway, no point in arguing. I could care less who wins, since I am not in the US. However, based on the numbers from both sides, I feel that Mittu will win. One of us will eat grass curry tomorrow, Paki ishtyle

. I will be having it alone if its me, if its you, well, you will have Nate for company

-M

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 06 Nov 2012 08:44

SwamyG wrote:Mortji.. sure anybody will indulge in fraud. But only one party has shown what it can do.

Forgetting Illinois gerrymandering during JFK elections, are we?

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 06 Nov 2012 08:47

Forgetting? I acknowledge that 'anybody' will indulge in fraud. However, in the modern political times, there is one party in India, and one party in USA that will go any length in stopping people from exercising their rights or deceiving people.

Rasmussen & Gallup are as good as Fox News. Propaganda machine, unlike propaganda machines on the other side, they attempt to portray they are all fair and balanced. My foot.

Nate might be a democrat supporting Obama. Here is what he says the role of Gallup is in his calculations: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.co ... the-world/

For each supporting article on Nate, we could find another equally criticizing article. Who is right, who is wrong? Time will tell.

Mihaylo · Post by **Mihaylo** » 06 Nov 2012 09:12

SwamyG wrote:Forgetting? I acknowledge that 'anybody' will indulge in fraud. However, in the modern political times, there is one party in India, and one party in USA that will go any length in stopping people from exercising their rights or deceiving people.

Ha ! Politicians and political parties, by virtue of their profession, deceive. That is what they do to stay alive and get elected. If Republicans indulge in voter fraud, the so do democrats, even in modern political times. I am betting you haven't heard of Acorn (wrt democrats) or illegal foreign contributions to both political parties, etc, etc.

I am jaded, so am not in awe or disappointed by either party. Voting is like you being given a choice of which condom is going to be used when you are going to be receiving GUBO. You feel happy that you exercised your right, but at the end of it all, what is sure is that you are going to have a sore back.

-M

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 06 Nov 2012 09:17

Without specifying which party I support (just assume that I am an independent), there is no universal rule without exceptions that says that all republicans would swallow whatever Fox news dishes out.

Mihaylo · Post by **Mihaylo** » 06 Nov 2012 09:25

matrimc wrote:Without specifying which party I support (just assume that I am an independent), there is no universal rule without exceptions that says that all republicans would swallow whatever Fox news dishes out.

Fox news is sub par and mediocre at best, however, it is popular because 99% of all mainstream media is left leaning. If only there were more middle of the road reporting media organizations, Fox news would probably shut down.
Irrespective of what party people claim to be affiliated with, a majority of America is purple. No matter what side they are on, they are leaning to the middle. Quite a few democrats agree to right of the middle positions and quite a few Republicans agree to left of the middle positions. And then there are a third of americans who identify themselves as independents. The candidate who can capture the imagination of the people and brings them together ( a la 2008, 1980) will win.

-M

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 06 Nov 2012 10:23

Neither am I impressed about any one party. If anything, the election cycle should show how the politicians sway the 'sheeple'. Yea, yeah, I have heard the ACORN bit from Rush and Hannity for hazaar days. When it comes to two evils, it is stark clear the fear mongers and their lies. Coming to the MSM, how long is the "right" going to continue to parrot the MSM is all left onlee? Fox News brags about its viewership, and clearly it is high compared to CNN or MSNBC. And if one counts the right wing talk-radio stations plus the Christian/evangelism based radio stations, the progressive radio stations pale into comparison. My 'blue' state has one progressive radio station, and has at least 2 right wing stations, plus couple Xtian stations. For a NYTimes, there is Washington Times, for a Washington Post, there is a Wall Street Journal. For a Jim Cramer, there is Kudlow & Rick Santelli. Etc etc.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 06 Nov 2012 11:16

I am getting ready for Romney Raj. welcome to the new commander of the revolution.

p.s. what is the revolution about?

habal · Post by **habal** » 06 Nov 2012 16:34

What more use does the deep state have for bronco bamma, arab spring and african spring is over. Ab next murge ko pesh kare.

pentaiah · Post by **pentaiah** » 06 Nov 2012 19:25

''I am not worried about the deficit. It is big enough to take care of itself.''

—President Ronald Reagan

Mihaylo · Post by **Mihaylo** » 06 Nov 2012 22:08

"We tried our ideas and they worked."

-President Barack Obama

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 06 Nov 2012 22:13

even among Indians, Obama doesn't have the unquestioned support that he did in 2008. I know many who are either refusing to vote or going with Romney this time. just an observation. Indians are not in enough #s to change any outcome.

Mihaylo · Post by **Mihaylo** » 06 Nov 2012 22:26

@Devesh: Its a reflection of the electorate all around. If Romney keeps the McCain voters - which he is going to - and is up among independents by 5-8 points - which by all conservative estimates he is - then add high voter turnout - which it sure sounds like - and he is winning.

With regards to my point about skewed polls. Here's Brit Hume making the same observation.
http://dailycaller.com/2012/11/05/brit- ... rong-here/

-M

pentaiah · Post by **pentaiah** » 06 Nov 2012 23:45

there is a high probability if Romney wins the budget deficit will turn to surplus on his inaguration day, the taxes will be exported to PRC Iran will shiver and ship oil FOD
( Free on Delivery), Bibi and Aytollahs will get piece prize and finally Pakistan will send cosmonauts to divert an incoming asteriod on their way to waiting 72. MMS will be ready with Bharat Ratna for Kiyani upon Prez Romini directions

The world will rejoice with peace and the Khan land will once again become land of Honey and Milk.

If Ombaba gets elected
He will end affirmative action, because he can act
He will introduce Stamp Duty
He will Tax Coffee to please Tea Party,
He will make Sun shine on all states not just florida for 18 hrs a day he did that in Alaska during his first term.
OSHA will make everybody wear a Solar hat to power the cars iPods iPads thats the easiest way to introduce Black hats (solar)
R = T = 0

R is reflection ( which is zero naturally for R for republican as well)
T Transmission (which bis zero again because T is for Tax as far as republicans go)

therefore
dG/dT ( dG incimental governance with respect to govering incrimental Time)
therefore dG/dT tends to zero with a devided house or republican house as evidenced in the first term first day they vowed not to do anything to help country or governance (which is the same operating mode or model in India)

So in Ombaba governance the enthalpy (internal energy, some economist relate this as deficit financing, which Regan perfected to a art) will increase more than the entropy, but entropy will take over once the house is taken over by R for republicans.

Oh just got this feed in twitters face books (like shyam does)
That, If Romney is elected which he will be for sure
he will make TS Pakistan ship freely the the Water Driven cars and free once for all USA from Oil imports but will also get Canada oil from up north state as Canada has never been accepted as country because Mitt can see from his window in New Hampshire home Canada Dry (lands)

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 07 Nov 2012 00:17

My wife and I went to the voting booths this morning before work. There were 4 older ladies running the show and 3 voting booths that are similar to a science fair project in how they fold up. They had an oval VOTE logo on top center and a cartridge slot on the left that the volunteers used to start your ballot.

I initially selected Obama but Romney was highlighted. I assumed it was being picky so I deselected Romney and tried Obama again, this time more carefully, and still got Romney. Being a software developer, I immediately went into troubleshoot mode. I first thought the calibration was off and tried selecting Jill Stein to actually highlight Obama. Nope. Jill Stein was selected just fine. Next I deselected her and started at the top of Romney's name and started tapping very closely together to find the 'active areas'. From the top of Romney's button down to the bottom of the black checkbox beside Obama's name was all active for Romney. From the bottom of that same checkbox to the bottom of the Obama button (basically a small white sliver) is what let me choose Obama. Stein's button was fine. All other buttons worked fine.

I asked the voters on either side of me if they had any problems and they reported they did not. I then called over a volunteer to have a look at it. She him hawed for a bit then calmly said "It's nothing to worry about, everything will be OK." and went back to what she was doing. I then recorded this video.

There is a lot of speculation that the footage is edited. I'm not a video guy, but if it's possible to prove whether a video has been altered or not, I will GLADLY provide the raw footage to anyone who is willing to do so. The jumping frames are a result of the shitty camera app on my Android phone, nothing more.

-----------------------------------------------

Apologies if it was posted before !

Mitt Romney Mormon video goes viral

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 07 Nov 2012 00:45

India Helps U.S. Join Asian Maritime Grouping

Last week, India assisted the U.S. in securing dialogue-partner status in the Indian Ocean Rim Association for Regional Cooperation (IOR-ARC), a 20-member grouping of littoral nations of the Indian Ocean.
India and the U.S.—as well as other Indo-Pacific nations such as Australia, Japan, Singapore, and Malaysia—share an interest in maintaining free and open trade routes in the Indian Ocean region.
While the grouping has so far done little in terms of concrete solutions for improving maritime security, it is still important for the U.S. to take an active part in dialogue on these issues. The rise of China and its economic, military, and diplomatic heft are increasingly felt in the region.
The U.S. joined as the sixth dialogue partner along with China, Japan, the United Kingdom, France, and Egypt. Iran had objected to Washington’s taking part in the group, and thus India (the group’s current chair) stepped in to defend U.S. membership.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called Indian Foreign Minister Salman Khurshid over the weekend to thank him for New Delhi’s behind-the-scenes diplomatic effort to help Washington secure a seat at the table, emphasizing the overall importance of U.S.–India relations. State Department Spokesperson Victoria Nuland told reporters that the U.S. was glad to be part of the group and noted the vital role these kinds of regional institutions play in addressing shared challenges.
In a joint project published a year ago with scholars from the Lowy Institute for International Policy (Sydney, Australia) and the Observer Research Foundation (New Delhi, India), The Heritage Foundation advocated for greater trilateral coordination and cooperation between the U.S., India, and Australia, particularly in the maritime security domain.
Arguing that such cooperation would help to maintain freedom of navigation in the entire Indo-Pacific region, the report called for the three countries to lead a discussion in possible new arrangements for shaping a rules-based maritime security order in the region.
The report went on to suggest that such a code of conduct could be managed by a forum with conditions of entry based on capabilities, interests, willingness to contribute, and a demonstrated willingness to abide by the rules.
U.S. membership within the IOR-ARC marks one small step to enhancing U.S. influence within the maritime security dialogue in this increasingly important region. Moving forward, the U.S. and India should find additional ways to work more closely with other like-minded nations to secure the Indian Ocean, particularly in light of a recent series of incidents of Chinese naval assertiveness in the South China Sea.

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 07 Nov 2012 00:52

Rony wrote:
My wife and I went to the voting booths this morning before work. There were 4 older ladies running the show and 3 voting booths that are similar to a science fair project in how they fold up. They had an oval VOTE logo on top center and a cartridge slot on the left that the volunteers used to start your ballot.

I initially selected Obama but Romney was highlighted. I assumed it was being picky so I deselected Romney and tried Obama again, this time more carefully, and still got Romney. Being a software developer, I immediately went into troubleshoot mode. I first thought the calibration was off and tried selecting Jill Stein to actually highlight Obama. Nope. Jill Stein was selected just fine. Next I deselected her and started at the top of Romney's name and started tapping very closely together to find the 'active areas'. From the top of Romney's button down to the bottom of the black checkbox beside Obama's name was all active for Romney. From the bottom of that same checkbox to the bottom of the Obama button (basically a small white sliver) is what let me choose Obama. Stein's button was fine. All other buttons worked fine.

I asked the voters on either side of me if they had any problems and they reported they did not. I then called over a volunteer to have a look at it. She him hawed for a bit then calmly said "It's nothing to worry about, everything will be OK." and went back to what she was doing. I then recorded this video.

There is a lot of speculation that the footage is edited. I'm not a video guy, but if it's possible to prove whether a video has been altered or not, I will GLADLY provide the raw footage to anyone who is willing to do so. The jumping frames are a result of the shitty camera app on my Android phone, nothing more.

-----------------------------------------------

Apologies if it was posted before !

Mitt Romney Mormon video goes viral

That, and following should not be coming from side which thinks they are winning :-

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 07 Nov 2012 01:12

^^^ You are saying Obama camp is preparing a early disclaimer for loss in polls?

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 07 Nov 2012 01:56

Sanku wrote:^^^ You are saying Obama camp is preparing a early disclaimer for loss in polls?

Yes, till a few weeks back Republicans were whining about voter fraud.. and Democrats were either ignoring or laughing at that.

But for last two days, suddenly they are crying about voter fraud and Republicans are silent.

See this : http://www.reddit.com/r/politics

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 07 Nov 2012 04:48

Divided States of America: Notes on the Decline of a Great Nation (Der Spiegel)

Yawn only.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 07 Nov 2012 10:02

Looking at the US results, there seems to be a Northern Eastern, Mid west and West America supporting Democrats and rest of country votes republican, Republicans win a lot more geography with a lot less poulation.

Legacy of Lands taken over from the Native Americans I guess.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 07 Nov 2012 11:32

actually the blue states are more fertile, farmable, good water and forest. tribes like the iroquis, mohawks, mohicans and pequots were driven off or eliminated there. remember the "last of mohicans" - upstate new york forests. the indian chief who met the pilgrim fathers had his head put on a pike.

the red states are either hilly, hot and swampy, dust bowls or desert for most part. only those 2nd wave settlers and have nots who landed later to find the east coast and midwest taken would have pushed into these inferior lands. until invention of the A.C. the pop of american south was limited (gora pop).

isolated magnets like las vegas or central valley in california/gold mines must have attracted their share of gamblers, dreamers, pan handlers, have nots , poor farmers looking for a break....

america truly was the most successful landgrab in history, followed by canada and australia...nearly 1/3 the land area of earth grabbed in a hundred yrs by the euros for perpetuity.

http://www.finalcall.com/artman/publish ... 7448.shtml

krisna · Post by **krisna** » 08 Nov 2012 07:43

Shankar Sharma: Rajat Gupta - Less equal than others

If this is not giving out material, non-public information, then what is? If Rajat Gupta is guilty, why isn’t Paulson? If Gupta had given Raj Rajaratnam information that Goldman Sachs was going to get an investment from Warren Buffett (and suppose, if Rajaratnam had not sold an already long position in Goldman stock based on this material, non-public information), would this have amounted to a criminal offence on Gupta’s part?

Of the many things I don’t like about this Rajat Gupta affair, one is the Indian media’s sickeningly fawning portrayal of the American justice system as one that “doesn’t spare the rich and powerful, unlike ours where the well-connected get away", and “how justice is dispensed speedily in the US", and so on.

Nothing could be farther from the truth. The US protects its own rich and powerful better than we can ever do. Paulson got away clean. Not even an investigation. No investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission into the trading by these attendee hedge funds. Nothing. Just a conspiracy of silence.

Then, we have the strange case of David Sokol. He was Buffett’s No. 2, and was widely tipped to take over from the old man. Sokol bought shares of Lubrizol, prior to getting Buffett to buy the company outright. After the deal was done, Sokol told Buffett of this purchase. Buffett waved it aside, saying it was no problem. No problem? Sokol traded on inside knowledge of material, non-public information, and Buffett joined him in keeping this a secret.

When the problem came out, Sokol resigned, Buffett shrugged. And, that was it. The cover up had happened. Because any serious investigation would have led to Buffett himself becoming a party to any offence, since he chose not to report this to the authorities. Consideration for his old age? Well...

krisna · Post by **krisna** » 08 Nov 2012 07:55

Shankar Sharma: American idolatry in the US legal system
How america protects its high and mighty

Let’s get to the other American idol: Steve Jobs. In his Second Coming, he got the Apple board to grant him options (nothing wrong with that). He, however, conspired with the board to backdate the options, by forging documents that showed the options had been granted much before they actually were (in order to make the options go back to being in-the-money). This is as clear a case of forgery and fraud as can be, and for this, Jobs should have been behind bars. But the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) – after investigating the matter – said it was satisfied that Jobs did this unknowingly.

In the tech initial public offering (IPO) boom, Wall Street investment banks routinely gave away IPO allocations to favoured fund managers and corporate executives (in return for corporate finance businesses). All these banks were investigated, but surprise, surprise, no white-shoe gang was charged. The investigators picked on Credit Suisse, hardly a part of the Wall Street establishment, and put Frank Quattrone out of business on the “obstruction of justice” charge. But more importantly, what was conveniently brushed under the carpet was the fact that one of the biggest recipients of such “illegal” IPO allocations was none other than Michael Dell — an American idol. Everybody looked the other way, and the story died.

The American International Group (AIG) case was even more egregious. It was proven after investigation that AIG had manipulated its accounts for something like 20 years. Hank Greenberg, another American idol, presided over AIG during this entire period. So, what happened to him? Was he arrested for accounting fraud? Or, convicted? Not a chance. Criminal charges were dropped. He settled with SEC, and merely stepped down. That was it

Almost all major hedge funds pay brokers for “catalyst”-driven trades. “Catalyst” is a euphemism for inside material and non-public information. And, the exemplar of this is Steve Cohen, the supremo of SAC Capital. SAC Capital has elevated “catalyst”-driven trading to an art form… it is open knowledge on the street that one of the best ways to get a trade from it (perhaps the only way) is to tell it about an impending upgrade or downgrade of a stock by your firm’s analyst. Trading on material, non-public information? You bet. Has SAC Capital ever been charged or prosecuted? Not a chance.

And, closer to present day, it never fails to amaze me how in the entire sub-prime scam (a true scam, if ever there was one), not even a single senior executive in any Wall Street bank has been held culpable, arrested, or convicted. Even civil proceedings have been non-existent. The white-shoe investment banks have got away once again (while flimsy cases against Mike Milken brought down the upstart Drexel Burnham Lambert). All cases against the Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch cabal are always conveniently “settled”. None of credit rating agencies have been prosecuted for gross negligence or outright lies, but one Deven Sharma had to resign as chief of Standard & Poor’s because he dared question Uncle Sam’s pristine rating.

As it should be clear by now, America exemplifies crony capitalism, and protects its own. And, contrary to what Indians would like to believe, Rajat Gupta was hardly part of the “rich and powerful” set. In fact, he was really a nobody in the American context. Just another former CEO of a consulting firm. That’s hardly a ticket to stardom. He was an Indian idol, not an American one. In fact, that was precisely Gupta’s problem: that he didn’t belong to the echelons of the high and the mighty and desperately wanted to belong to that club (this is revealed in Raj Rajaratnam’s transcripts), for which he was currying favours for Rajaratnam, much like the young Bud Fox supplying the Blue Star Airlines tip to Gordon Gekko in Wall Street.

This brings me to the American criminal justice system. It is hardly a justice system at all. Given that nearly 90 per cent of cases never go to trial, having been plea-bargained and settled beforehand, the courts have largely become rubber stamps of settlements between parties. This rids a court of its primary purpose: the discovery of truth and the establishment of case law. And, of course, given that hearsay evidence is admissible in US courts, prosecutors and federal agents get a free run in threatening lower level employees to rat against their seniors, to win immunity. So, while it is illegal for a normal citizen to induce or bribe somebody to give false evidence, it is perfectly legal for the government to do so.

This apart, when the Feds can’t get you on the substantive charge, they always have the favoured fall-back option “obstruction of justice” or “false statement” charge. They got Quattrone on the first. They got Martha Stewart on the second (because Stewart told investors that she was confident no charge could be brought against her in the ImClone share sale case — this was taken by the prosecutors as an attempt to lie to and mislead the public. As it turned out, Stewart didn’t go to jail on the insider trading charge at all). If giving a better-than-real picture of a company’s health is a criminal offence, as was held in the case of Stewart, it puzzles me no end why none of the Wall Street bank CEOs are behind bars, for they constantly told the public every quarter during the sub-prime crisis that the “worst was behind them”, and that they expected no more write-downs. As the story goes, Stewart was not exactly buddy-buddy with the Bush administration…

Another interesting and unnoticed fact about the Gupta trial was that the judge prevented the defence from presenting voluminous evidence to prove his innocence, saying, “Keep this short… the jury doesn’t have that much time to go into all this pile of evidence.” Such a thing would be unthinkable in Indian courts, where even if a judge is biased against the defendant, he will give him any amount of time to mount a credible, comprehensive defence.

Let us disabuse ourselves of the notion that the West is all about rule of law. US laws protect the truly rich and powerful, (a few outliers like Enron and Worldcom have to be put away, just to keep the pretence alive… but so have we, like in the case of Satyam) and selectively target small fry like Gupta. It’s also convenient that these are Indians and South Asians. There is a pattern here (and I include Vikram Pandit in this pattern), and the truly perceptive will see what the pattern is.