Indian Interests in US Presidential Election Campaign 2012

[Austin]

What happens to Senate and Congress seats who wins there ?

[pentaiah]

Life and fate is which
Romney failed to be true to faith and was worse than John Kerry in fl flops
Romney himself was undecided voter as never knew who he was

[devesh]

also, the rise of Latinos as an organized vote is really visible in this election. I have to wonder, as the Southwest turns increasingly Hispanic, and Republicans start loosing their last bastions in the West, Arizona and Texas (South-West), what will they do?

the WASP are increasingly becoming the "racial minority" and there is bound to be increasing hostility. the 'social project' of America was supposed to be a settled question, but 2012 is showing that not to be true. I am ignoring 2008 b/c it was an unusual wave election.

also in Florida, they are speculating that Romney's right turn on immigration is the reason why he's loosing.

either way, Latinos are making their presence felt. within the decade, it will be the latino population centers that decide elections in all the important states where Republicans previously or currently had/have a chance.

[Rudradev]

This is actually quite historic. It has shown that, despite their best efforts to mobilize the Angry White Voter, the Republicans can't count on that to win elections anymore. Seems like the "White Flight" from the cities over the last 30-40 years, plus the social "protracted adolescence" of privileged white families that leads to more divorces and fewer children, has come around to bite the Angry White Voter in the butt.

The future of the Republican party (and American conservatism in general) lies in appealing to immigrants. Immigrants are often as (if not more) socially conservative than the White Republican base, even if their conservatism derives from other value systems (Catholicism, Hinduism, Buddhism) than the traditional White Protestant outlook. Immigrants also have a higher birth-rate and are powerfully concentrated in all the traditional Dem bastions (East Coast and California) besides Florida, Texas and the SW border states. If appealed to in the right way, they are likely to be more economically conservative as well; they are more likely to feel that, because they got where they did through hard work, government handouts to the chronically underperforming sections are an insultingly bad idea.

Republicans can't afford to be anti-immigrant any longer, if they want to stay relevant at all.

[devesh]

Romney is winning the popular vote, even after California is factored in!

so basically a divided nation, perhaps even the slightest majority not getting the candidate they wanted.

tea leaves are not looking good for USA. from a purely social/psychological PoV, this means that the two sides are essentially hiding behind their respective trenches in their strongholds.

[Rudradev]

Nixon determined that the path to Republican victory depended on mobilizing two conservative segments: the Southern Protestants and the Northern (chiefly Midwest/Industrial Belt) Catholics. The Southern Protestants have held firm, but the Northern Catholics from the rust belt (upstate PA, OH, IA, WI, MI) went for Obama in a big way. It seems Nixon's formula will have to be revised. Coastal immigrant populations are the obvious target for the Republicans to cultivate.

I fear that, for non-Christian immigrant populations in particular, this "cultivation" will take the form of massive new evanjehadi efforts targeted at Indian, SE Asian and Chinese Americans. Koreans are already targeted in a big way.

[pentaiah]

There are very serious conclusions that can be drawn for all immigrants legal and illegal
Working in industry at various levels in the US

I can put my thoughts in a two page essay but for the sake of humanity I shall refrain.

Also by the way any news about Michelle Bachman? The tea pot party leader!

[Rangudu]

Rudradev,

Republicans cannot attract even affluent immigrant types as long as they keep shoving Baptist type hardcore Christian "values" down people's throats. If a person of color cannot feel comfortable in their crowd, then they cannot get that vote.

[Gus]

i called it first (afaik)

Rep have a lot of soul searching to do. Their 'southern strategy' belongs to the museum now. I wonder how much they can turn from all the extreme positions they have been taking till now.

[Satya_anveshi]

We will see some BernanQE effect tomorrow in the market and then SNAFU over the fiscal cliff / debt ceiling debate later on.

Folks in EU and middle east can resume their dishum dishum....We just need to ensure we don't get into cross fire.

[Rudradev]

Rangudu, that's why people like Marco Rubio, and for that matter Bobby Jindal and Nikki Haley are likely to assume a higher profile in the GOP in the near future. Remember "macaca" George Allen? He lost his VA Senate contest for the second time in a row tonight.

[devesh]

Rudradev ji,

I have been thinking about this for quite a while. there are some "backup plans" already being planned out. very likely that we will see a demand for "division" of California in the next decade. partly, it is to dent the huge 55 seats that are essentially a gift to Latinos b/c they will basically pull it to Democrats and thereby gain lot of influence in that crucial state. and partly, it is a plan to "save" the last remaining WASP bastions in California, namely, the Northern and interior sections away from the Bay Area and Southern Cali.

also, the problem for the Republicans is that the "suburbanite Whites" who moved away from the cities did not pass down their conservative worldviews to their children. this generation in the suburban areas is pretty much equally divided and in some cases with slight edge for Democrats. that is very bad news, b/c by effectively abandoning the hugely populated urban areas, they've essentially gifted those areas to minorities and Democrats, while what was supposed to be their new bastions are not really so. this is their problem now. and it is not an easy one to solve. as has been seen in this election, the Democrats are proving that they are capable of inflicting debilitating defeats on Republicans in the urban areas by such staggering margins that even if the Republicans outperform Dems spectacularly in rural areas, it is simply not enough to repair the damage.

[RajeshA]

Republicans can't afford to be anti-immigrant any longer, if they want to stay relevant at all.

That is really the true essence of this election. Republicans now know they need to win over some immigrant community on their side. Which immigrant community is it going to be? Could be Latinos? But if Obama takes the initiative on Immigration Reform, then the Republicans may lose the Latino voters for a very long time.

In any case, Republicans would have to build a new coalition. WASP just isn't going to work any more!

[pentaiah]

Bibi is getting into jump suit and the Ayatollahs are turning to West south west
Ombaba is working phones to cool it as Mrs Kilton says I Quit.

Gus Saab did you study conjugal effects of Sukra Venus and Ketu of Biden ?
Congrats any way getting it right and before others got it wrong

[pentaiah]

Kalifornia is to US as UP( even after division) is to India and even U P A


Notice how irrelevant Florida, Colorado Virginia are now
They can still be undecided till the next elections.

Some analogy to SRT centuries when the match is lost unlike VVS and Rahul's centuries.

Ok now getting into my helmet

[RajeshA]

Now seeing some Indian faces on CNN at the Obama HQ - a few colorful turbans as well.

[ramana]

Devesh, Do you read your posts?

[devesh]

Devesh, Do you read your posts?

yes.

[Gus]

Rangudu, that's why people like Marco Rubio, and for that matter Bobby Jindal and Nikki Haley are likely to assume a higher profile in the GOP in the near future. Remember "macaca" George Allen? He lost his VA Senate contest for the second time in a row tonight.

Rubio, Jindal and Haley are still saying the exact same things that wasp rep's say, they are nothing but wasp's with brown skin. Jindal and Haley had to renounce their faiths and embrace Christianity to be accepted in gop.

This won't work...they really need to embrace diversity and put together a new majority from different groups.

[Rangudu]

Rangudu, that's why people like Marco Rubio, and for that matter Bobby Jindal and Nikki Haley are likely to assume a higher profile in the GOP in the near future. Remember "macaca" George Allen? He lost his VA Senate contest for the second time in a row tonight.

Well that's swell, but call me when a non-converted Ramakrishna Guntakalla or a Ramesh Trivedi get in that crowd.

[Sushupti]

"@seemasirohi: Communists taking over America and capitalists over China!"

[Anindya]

Yesterday, was waiting to vote early at San Jose. Couple of observations - (a) most people seemed to be non-white and (b) based on several discussions while waiting in the hall, most people seemed to be ready to vote for Obama.

Republicans just do not seem to realize that demographics has changed - Latinos, African-Americans and single-women essentially is enough of a dominant demographics, that they will not win without a significant change in who they are.

[Rudradev]

Devesh ji and Rajesh A ji,

The whole "Latino" thing is now going to become far more interesting.

Thus far it is commonplace among the "political pundits" on both sides to talk of "Latinos" as if they were one single bloc of brown Spanish-speaking people who vote en masse. Nothing could be further from the truth. There are hazaar castes of Latinos (that's right, I said "castes"... the word "casta" itself is of Spanish/Portuguese origin, and with good reason!) There are black Latinos with African slave ancestry, and white Latinos of almost pure Euro/"Anglo" heritage, and Mestizos with native blood. There are generational divides... many of the earlier generation immigrants (who had to come up the hard way) are none too happy about new political moves to give "amnesty" to their newly arrived cousins. Then there are proto-national loyalties. Cubans (in FL especially) are descended from the anti-Castro refugees, and quite right wing. Mexicans are contemptuous of other people from Mesoamerica, including Hondurans, Salvadorans and Costa Ricans. South Americans are a whole different palette, as are the Caribbean Latins (Dominicans, who are almost indistinguishable from Afro-Americans but speak Spanish.) And then there are the Puerto Ricans, whom all the others hate, because they have special privilege as protectorate US citizens, don't need green cards etc.

I have personal experience of all these churning divides from my time as a student living in Elmhurst, NY... where the whole spectrum was represented among my neighbours. I have no doubt that what we will see now is a deliberate segmentation of the Latinos by the political establishment along "caste" lines and economic lines... not at all different from the post VP Singh Mandal politics that still haunt the Hindu electorate in India.

[Rudradev]

Rangudu, that's why people like Marco Rubio, and for that matter Bobby Jindal and Nikki Haley are likely to assume a higher profile in the GOP in the near future. Remember "macaca" George Allen? He lost his VA Senate contest for the second time in a row tonight.

Well that's swell, but call me when a non-converted Ramakrishna Guntakalla or a Ramesh Trivedi get in that crowd.

I don't think they will. I think preference will still be given to the converted... hence my observation on the likelihood of increased evangelization of non-white immigrants, in case you missed it. http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 8#p1361068

[devesh]

^^^
I had not paid much attention to the "castes", but one also has to remember that we are dealing with identity politics of a "minority" which is trying to assert its power wrt the WASP majority. the "caste" difference might exist, but when it's time to vote, they might all just go with Dems as a matter of establishing their own influence.

the only deviation I see is Cubans who are a definitive Republican base, but they are confined to Florida. the vast stretch of the Southwest does not have a similar solidly Republican Hispanic base anywhere. regardless of his ideas on other topics, George Friedman has touched some very important issues about Hispanics in his last book. very relevant, and at this point of time, also derided as "fear mongering".

[ramana]

The popular vote is very close. In fact Romeny is ahead.

[Satya_anveshi]

Not for nothing that Romney baited latinos by making some shrill rhetoric about his plans to bring back jobs that chinese took away and set them up in Mexico and other parts of latin america. Expand NAFTA blah blah...but alas they can't print credibility as they do the greenbacks.

[Nandu]

A few non-presidential election items.

a) I am glad Elizabeth Warren won the senate seat in MA. She is a fierce critic of the banking industry and a friend of the consumers.

b) First time gay marriage has been legalized in a state by actual popular vote. Maine.

c) Marijuana for personal recreational use has been legalized in two states (CO, MA) and maybe more.

Edited: Maryland also approves gay marriage. MA is medical marijuana. CO is recreational. OR voted against legalizing it.

[RajeshA]

Obama will have the popular vote. California still out!

[Rudradev]

Devesh ji, it's always easy to divide if you know the faultlines and work on them. This is not like our Sickular govt. who actually WANT to create a monolithic bloc out of certain religious minorities. What you say about Latinos voting Dem en bloc (except FL Cubans) is somewhat true today, but it will be less and less true as the party machines start to erode the monolith along caste lines (which they will have to do in order to avoid being held hostage by a vote bank.)

Already there is a huge push by evangelicals, Southern Baptists etc. to convert large hunks of Latinos away from Catholicism.

[ramana]

you are right! he is increasing his lead.

[devesh]

Devesh ji, it's always easy to divide if you know the faultlines and work on them. This is not like our Sickular govt. who actually WANT to create a monolithic bloc out of certain religious minorities. What you say about Latinos voting en bloc (except FL Cubans) is somewhat true today, but it will be less and less true as the party machines start to erode the monolith along caste lines (which they will have to do.)

Already there is a huge push by evangelicals, Southern Baptists etc. to convert large hunks of Latinos away from Catholicism.

.


if you what you say is true, then the Great American Churning Machine has my respect and admiration. if the internal American machinery can successfully engineer the division of Latinos into different "castes", it is truly a phenomenon achievement. and by all means it proves that America still has the "oomph" to carry on in its journey.

I guess we'll see in our lifetimes.

[devesh]

now, Obama is leading in the popular vote by a thin margin. took long enough. he has to have a lead of 1%, at least, to claim a "mandate". looks like he will cross 300 electoral seats, but if it's a tie in popular vote, the "mandate" talk will not pass muster.

[sooraj]

Warren wins in Massachusetts, dampens Kerry's secretary of State chances
http://thehill.com/blogs/global-affairs ... te-chances

Samantha Power, a director of Obama's National Security Council, could be next in line for the job

[RajeshA]

Rudradev ji,

AFAIK, Republicans have been milking the Anti-Castro Cubans in Florida for quite some time. Even the Jews there have been pro-Republican, I think. But still Florida is turning blue.

So the question is which other Latino castes are the Republicans going to target? Mexicans are a potential target group, but for that they will have to raise the profile of the Mexican integration into NAFTA, as well as perhaps give Mexicans some extra leeway to enter USA and legalize their status in USA.

If a Republican Senator starts a determined campaign now in favor of Mexico, perhaps that Senator can go on to win USA Presidency in four years.

There will always be social issues and demographic groups that can be blasted and demonized to charge up the base - gays, Moslems, etc. but there would need to be some positive overture as well to some demography, which has been outside the Republican tent till now.

[nvishal]

I hope im not the only one here who wanted the republicans to win

[RajeshA]

Warren wins in Massachusetts, dampens Kerry's secretary of State chances
http://thehill.com/blogs/global-affairs ... te-chances

Samantha Power, a director of Obama's National Security Council, could be next in line for the job

This is from India's stand point a major turn. John Kerry, is perhaps one of the most active Paki appeaser in USA. As Secretary of State, that would not have been in India's interest.

Downside is he remains as head of the Senate's Foreign Affairs Committee, which would go easy on Pakistan.

[devesh]

Romney's concession speech was gracious, and he showed no hint of bitterness of resentment. I have to give him a hat-tip for that.

[Rudradev]

Devesh ji, it's always easy to divide if you know the faultlines and work on them. This is not like our Sickular govt. who actually WANT to create a monolithic bloc out of certain religious minorities. What you say about Latinos voting en bloc (except FL Cubans) is somewhat true today, but it will be less and less true as the party machines start to erode the monolith along caste lines (which they will have to do.)

Already there is a huge push by evangelicals, Southern Baptists etc. to convert large hunks of Latinos away from Catholicism.

.


if you what you say is true, then the Great American Churning Machine has my respect and admiration. if the internal American machinery can successfully engineer the division of Latinos into different "castes", it is truly a phenomenon achievement. and by all means it proves that America still has the "oomph" to carry on in its journey.

I guess we'll see in our lifetimes.

In fact the American Churning Machine has been in operation ever since the dawn of the country. People call America a "melting pot" but it is more like a minced-meat-grinder, chopping up immigrant identities into microscopic sub-identities so small that the highest collective aspiration becomes identification with an overarching American identity. It began with the very first European immigrants into what is now the Eastern US. They were divided into four "castes"... the "Puritans" (English religious refugees, mostly Calvinists fleeing the reign of Bloody Mary, who settled mostly in New England)... the "Quakers" (Dutch and German extraction refugees who settled in Pennsylvania and the Mid-Atlantic)... the "Cavaliers" (upper-class English and French landowners who settled in the South) and the "Borderers" (mostly Scot or Irish working class people who settled the westward-expanding inland frontier.) Thus the WASPs themselves were split up into castes based not only on the basis of their distinct pre-American origins, but increasingly on the basis of their social and economic aspirations in the new American context. In fact, up to Barack Obama, every single US President is a direct descendant of one of these four "castes"!

Actually, this "churning" process is the most natural way for a truly inclusive democracy to develop its internal social structure in a manner conducive to national interest. It is the converse process... whereby certain dangerous sub-identities are deliberately kept alive as monolithic vote-banks, even at the expense of overall national interest... that takes diabolical effort and cynical manipulation. The day the Indian governing class abandons the latter approach and lets our churning take its natural course, enabling a self-sustaining system that slowly crumbles sub-identities with gentle pressure upon every available faultline, is the day that our present political rupa (as a subsidiary holding of the criminal, neo-EIC, die-nasty enterprise) will become a thing of the past.

[Abhijit]

I posted this on my FB:

notice the Romney HQ Vs Obama HQ from the color gradient perspective. Show me any black or brown in Romney HQ. The Repubs need to take a stock of what has happened to the demographics of America. If they continue to antagonize the non-white color spectrum then they are in for a very very long time of 'sitting in opposition'