Indian Interests in US Presidential Election Campaign 2012

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 07 Nov 2012 12:07

Rudradev ji,

excellent points. and the reason why till now America has remained the "ascending" nation. as long as this ability remains intact, even if the super-power status goes away, they will still flourish and continue to be a powerful presence on world stage for a long time to come. not like Britannia or Russia or China.

I guess the focus now shifts to who will be the SoS?

Agnimitra · Post by **Agnimitra** » 07 Nov 2012 12:20

Rudradev wrote:In fact the American Churning Machine has been in operation ever since the dawn of the country. People call America a "melting pot" but it is more like a minced-meat-grinder, chopping up immigrant identities into microscopic sub-identities so small that the highest collective aspiration becomes identification with an overarching American identity.

Great post Rudradev ji. In fact, the Publius Papers dwell on this point as a consciously engineered requisite - that a republican system needs the kind of diversity where there IS no majority of any kind. The greater the diversity, the more successfully and equitably the system works.

However, the diversity those founding fathers had in mind was a "soft" diversity - one of different vested interests, etc. They didn't seem to have thought much about the fact that Afro-Am slaves were citizens too. Or that women could have voting rights. Not to speak of native Americans, Hispanics, etc. So their idea of diversity didn't even go beyond basic racial boundaries.

The challenge to the American experiment now is how much it can accommodate more "hard" forms of diversity. Hispanics may be the first test. Islamics is going to be the major limiting condition, IMHO, because it is a religious identity that comes bundled with an alternative political agenda and system.

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 07 Nov 2012 12:47

devesh wrote:now, Obama is leading in the popular vote by a thin margin. took long enough. he has to have a lead of 1%, at least, to claim a "mandate". looks like he will cross 300 electoral seats, but if it's a tie in popular vote, the "mandate" talk will not pass muster.

What do you mean pass muster. What kind of mandate did W have? (lost the popular vote, stole the electoral college) ?

I agree that nothing will change, or would have changed wrt India.

For US attitudes towards India to change, India has to show it is ready for a different role. But India is not ready (either not able or not willing) for a different role so India-US relationships will continue to be warm - hot - warm.

Nandu · Post by **Nandu** » 07 Nov 2012 12:49

More non presidential news. Two Indian American candidates are still live, Ami Bera and Ricky Gill, both in CA. Others have lost.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 07 Nov 2012 14:29

Any speculation on who is going to become Secretary of State?

member_20292 · Post by **member_20292** » 07 Nov 2012 14:35

Rangudu wrote:
Rudradev wrote:non-converted Ramakrishna Guntakalla

word.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 07 Nov 2012 18:49

Well, well, just for sheer entertainment value, I am going to have fun watching Fox news Nazis eating crow.

I think TSP RAPE will be disappointed, but then again the chameleons that they are, and keeping their ultimate goal post in mind, the red fort in New Delhi, they will probably find a way to work with O and make sure their power balance visa vi India does not plummet by messing around with US.

Finally, RamanaGaru, lets give the devil his due. Nate Silver was right on the money. I was following his live blog last night. I like mathematicians in general, and I am going to buy his book Signal from noise (http://www.amazon.com/The-Signal-Noise- ... 159420411X)

pentaiah · Post by **pentaiah** » 07 Nov 2012 19:07

There are certain fundamental realities that need to be addressed by the intelligentsia of USA.

1) it will become a failing democracy unless the power of money and lobbying is not checked. The barriers for entry of a common man with zeal for public service with out money amassing fund raisers has to be addressed.

2) that science and faith can co exist with out disparaging science for not able to answer all the questions that nature possesses. Admitting that our understanding of nature and divinity is not complete and they need not be mutually exclusive.

3) religion and sex are best left at home and bed room rather than become main public discourse.

4) USA is more than a Christian nation. It is an idea that innovation , individualism with a collective good can be fostered and be an example for the committee of nations.

5) that a few fringe political pundits and evangelical can remote control the nation because of listener ship and marketability.

6) that one can win elections by posturing, pandering and defamation of opposing views or dissension
With out any core beliefs.

7) Finally what US does today will impact the world tomorrow and there is certain moral responsibility in conducting intrusive meddling in other countries affairs.

Stop thinking in short term gains especially in regime changes, arming and fostering revolutions of various colors.

Much much more

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 07 Nov 2012 19:36

VikramS ji,

yes, GWB lost popular vote. and look how he turned out. he never claimed "mandate" for that term. you can claim a mandate when you have a decisive lead in electoral seats and also have at least a visible lead in popular vote. Obama has that now, so the Dems can go ahead and claim mandate.

Nandu · Post by **Nandu** » 07 Nov 2012 19:41

Ami Bera won, narrowly. There will be two Hindu Americans in Congress this term.

abhischekcc · Post by **abhischekcc** » 07 Nov 2012 19:50

>>USA is more than a Christian nation

It is a Xtian EVANJELICAL country - that believes not is discourse and debate, but in the divine right to shove its point of view down other people's throats.

gunjur · Post by **gunjur** » 07 Nov 2012 20:00

TIFWIW. Saw this on net
"Since great depression republicans have won elections only when a nixon or bush was on ticket".

member_22872 · Post by **member_22872** » 07 Nov 2012 20:21

^^^^Reagan?

gunjur · Post by **gunjur** » 07 Nov 2012 20:41

^^^ Bush sr was his vice-president, hence a bush was on ticket.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 07 Nov 2012 20:52

About 2 days ago ....

Amber G. wrote:Okay, here is just math ... (computation based on what we know about polls, and computation based on Amber G's model - which BTW is consistent with few other reliable sources)

Probability that Obama will win (Electoral vote is one which counts ) - 87%
(This means he will get more than 270 electoral votes)

Median/ Mode / Mean ..

Mode is 332 (Probability that he will get 332 is about 18%, 307 is about 14% and 347+ is about 12%)

Ohio is heart of all it all .. we are bombarded by ads, polls etc like never before. Though O has statistically significant lead among registered voters here, the lead among "likely" voters is very thin.
It will depend on how many people go out and actually vote..One statistician, who has access to internal polling said something to the effect ..3 votes per precinct, here in Ohio, can make a difference in the eventual result... the race is that close!

Guess what! Obama in all likelihood may actually end up getting 332.. (if Florida goes to him) and at present at 303...

Not a bad prediction.

Also Hamilton County in Ohio (which I had some very fine data) did go to Obama ( First time since 1960's the county went to Democrats in 2008)... and Obama targeting and making sure that their supporters do indeed go and vote was very successful. ..The data and technology used (iPhone Apps with google maps to cover and individually target supporters and supporters only over last few days)

pentaiah · Post by **pentaiah** » 07 Nov 2012 21:17

@bigbird<< thanks to father thou art in heaven , I dodged the bullet, thanks to my friends at Sesame Street who voted

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 07 Nov 2012 21:25

so, in a sense, if latinos spread across the red states, then the equations will not be the same anymore.

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 07 Nov 2012 21:45

AmberG - That's really cool

Nandu · Post by **Nandu** » 07 Nov 2012 22:33

Theo, because Republicans can't shut up about the importance of being Christian (with a temporary exception for Jews) if you want to be a true American.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 07 Nov 2012 22:38

pentaiah wrote: Much much more

In short you want US of A to become like a Dharmic India (and even the current approximation of dharmic India, even if its polity it dominated by non-Indians in spirit)

Good luck with that.

SBajwa · Post by **SBajwa** » 07 Nov 2012 22:57

Bottom line is that Electoral Collage system is making sure that America survives otherwise CA and NY will decide everything (like Gay Marriages, Marijuana, etc) for everybody. Check the map of the USA it is mostly RED but from NY, NJ or CA areas.

Even as I am not Christian but I still think that Gay marriage must be banned (at national level) and drug/alcohol use needs to be limited.

It baffles my mind on why NYites vote democracts has anybody seen this S****ole.

Republicans have better fundamentals than Democrats., remember Abe Lincoln was Republican.
The blacks did voted like Muslims in India., The only black woman republican candidate lost in heavy black constituency.

9 states are for same-sex marriage while 11 have banned them., one of the elected senator is openly Gay.

This issue (Same sex) will now be decided by Supreme Court which has 5-4 edge in favor of conservatives but 2 of these 5 conservative judges have their term expiring in less than 2 years. So

Ombaba legacy will be

1. First Black president.
2. Got Bin Laden
3. Same-Sex marriage.
4. Too big to fail companies get help from government.

-----

He can improve his legacy If he can get China to stop dumping its garbage into US and start manufacturing in big way.

jash_p · Post by **jash_p** » 07 Nov 2012 23:09

x posted from other thread
My prediction is that Clinton will be out and Quolin bin Powel will be next seretory of State and Pakis will be celebrating.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 07 Nov 2012 23:11

SBajwa ji,
same-sex marriage is not something that even I agree with. no need to give that behavior a legal basis and thereby take away incentives to not indulge in it. there is something deeply disturbing here. I have no idea why people think it's such a good idea to legalize same-sex marriage.

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 07 Nov 2012 23:15

Three messages come out loud and clear.

1. There is a race divide
2. There is an income class divide (The 47% of Romney is not entirely untrue)
3. There is a social values divide (Romney did not excite them)

You can go district by district in any state and apply the above three principles to understand how people vote. This is the reason the house is republican but the Presidential race goes the other way. Romney not being the best candidate reflects in the skewed number of Republican governors as an individual voting for a republican governor may vote for a democratic candidate on the national ballot.

shaardula · Post by **shaardula** » 07 Nov 2012 23:21

america lives in incredibly segregated neighbourhoods. while in india we are actively doing away way with outdated concepts like agrahara (brahmins only areas), koppals(shephards), pete(business) etc., in much of america there is a reverse trend. it may be routing of highways, or it may be school zoning, there are very clear local boundaries in much of america. hyper-diverse communities like those in NY are exceptions, but much of america is very segregated - racially, socially, economically.

and yet at the same time, america has become very very diverse -multiple races, multiple economic classes, multiple social classes.

the insistence of thinking of different groups as numerical minorities rather than as constituents is what is the problem for republicans. IMHO, obama 2012 is more profound than obama 2008.

O 2012 good for america. what means for the rest of the world is a different story. US-2012 vote is inward looking, influence on rest of the world not much of a concern here.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 07 Nov 2012 23:28

Bill O Reilly 'The White Establishment Is Now The Minority' Fox News Election Night 2012

--------------------------------------

Video : Future of Republican Party following 2012 election

http://video.foxnews.com/v/195400168700 ... 3226511001

shaardula · Post by **shaardula** » 07 Nov 2012 23:28

for what to is worth, nate silver had a very very good night. he himself was a bit concerned about the weights he was assigning to the various data points, but that held. he has 100/100 on states.

again, as i said rasmuseen consistently + numerical bias for romney. people like silver can exploit that and make useful predictions. and he did.

udhos to a number cruncher. and soda to nay sayers.

shaardula · Post by **shaardula** » 07 Nov 2012 23:29

o'reilly reading all over it. keep it simple sir.

krisna · Post by **krisna** » 08 Nov 2012 00:05

It is bizarre that khanate still indulges in electoral college for votes.
reps have much to lose if the present system is removed.
the electoral college gives the so called "whites/rednecks etc' some power.

majority of aam americans live in urban areas with over 3/4ths in urban areas.

A rep sitting in democratic area will not go out to vote as it a waste.
similarly a dem sitting in rep area will not vote.

still no non christian women as potus despite 200 years of democracy.
So imperfect democracy.

will I ever see it in my lifetime.

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 08 Nov 2012 00:14

Deleted.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 08 Nov 2012 00:37

Election results raise questions about Christian right's influence

Though evangelical leaders as diverse as the Southern Baptist Convention’s Richard Land and Christian icon Billy Graham voiced support for Mitt Romney (Graham stopped short of an official endorsement), Obama performed better among white evangelicals than he did in 2008 in some states.

Obama also narrowly won Catholics, even after the U.S. Catholic bishops waged a rigorous campaign against the Obama administration around the issue of religious liberty. The bishops alleged Obama was forcing Catholics to violate their own teachings by making health insurance companies provide free contraception coverage for virtually all employees.

John Green, a religion and politics expert at the University of Akron, said Obama’s win among Catholics was partly a testament to the growing Latino demographic.“Maybe Hispanic Catholics were not as moved by religious liberty-type arguments as by immigration and economics,” he said.

Unlike in 2004, when John Kerry – a former altar boy – lost Catholic voters, the Obama campaign had a robust religious outreach program aimed largely at Catholic and evangelical voters. The effort included videos from Obama and Vice President Joe Biden, a Catholic, talking about their Christian faith.

Conservative Christians did claim some victories Tuesday night, including helping the GOP retain control of the U.S. House of Representatives and helping elect tea party favorite Ted Cruz as a U.S. senator from Texas.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 08 Nov 2012 00:42

From Wapost:
Women make historic gains in the U.S. Senate

And also in House ... From CNN:
Big gains for women in 2012

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Nov 2012 01:08

CRamS wrote:Well, well, just for sheer entertainment value, I am going to have fun watching Fox news Nazis eating crow.

I think TSP RAPE will be disappointed, but then again the chameleons that they are, and keeping their ultimate goal post in mind, the red fort in New Delhi, they will probably find a way to work with O and make sure their power balance visa vi India does not plummet by messing around with US.

Finally, RamanaGaru, lets give the devil his due. Nate Silver was right on the money. I was following his live blog last night. I like mathematicians in general, and I am going to buy his book Signal from noise (http://www.amazon.com/The-Signal-Noise- ... 159420411X)

You and everybody else!

CBS News: Nate Silver's book sales soar

WaPo:Winners and losers in 2012 elections

Not individuals but groups and trends. I would put Donald trump in the latter category

Meanwhile Wall Street readjusts after backing Romney despite getting bailed out before everyone else.

I think they also stopped lending to create distress.

LINK

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 08 Nov 2012 01:14

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Nov 2012 01:27

Nandu wrote:Ami Bera won, narrowly. There will be two Hindu Americans in Congress this term.

He is a good guy. A UCD Medical Prof. Was at meet and greet event with him in 2009. along with some other members.

Too bad another guy didnt run in Fremont.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Nov 2012 01:28

Sushupti, I guess priceless!

SBajwa · Post by **SBajwa** » 08 Nov 2012 02:54

by Krsna
It is bizarre that khanate still indulges in electoral college for votes.
reps have much to lose if the present system is removed.
the electoral college gives the so called "whites/rednecks etc' some power.

I guess you need to get educated about Electoral collage . This is a system designed during the American Revolution and I believe it is missing from majority of the other "democracies" like India/Britain/australia/etc.

"The Electoral College consists of 538 electors. A majority of 270 electoral votes is required to elect the President. Your state’s entitled allotment of electors equals the number of members in its Congressional delegation: one for each member in the House of Representatives plus two for your Senators"

This was created in 1776 when Mughals were still ruling from Delhi and were periodically getting looted by many Afghans and Persians (1724 Nadir Shah, 1760s Abdali, etc). At that time American revolutionaries declared independence from England just as Britishers in India were expanding into India (Plassey, Buxar, etc).

So originally there were 13 states and since each state wants to have its independence as well as well representation this system was devised.

American government has 4 independent centers of power
1. Presidency (elected through electoral college so that all states have good representation as oppose to 100% based on population, because of flaws in population based democracy the seats in Indian lok sabha have been frozen since 1970s otherwise the states (like Kerala and Tamil Nadu) who are good in population control will get less representation in parliament.

2. House . 100% based on population control. (controlled by Republicans)
3. Senate . Each state sends 2 senators irrespective of population. (Democrats)
4. Supreme Court. (Judges nominated by president and confirmed by senate.

Electoral collage is a system that guarantees that nut jobs from CA and NY do not run amok with all power.

saip · Post by **saip** » 08 Nov 2012 03:16

Nandu wrote:Ami Bera won, narrowly. There will be two Hindu Americans in Congress this term.

Is the other Tulsi Gabbard for HI?

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 08 Nov 2012 03:21

ramana wrote:Sushupti, I guess priceless!

I would love to see such a pic of DDM-gang soon.

krisna · Post by **krisna** » 08 Nov 2012 04:47

SBajwa wrote: I guess you need to get educated about Electoral collage . This is a system designed during the American Revolution and I believe it is missing from majority of the other "democracies" like India/Britain/australia/etc.

"The Electoral College consists of 538 electors. A majority of 270 electoral votes is required to elect the President. Your state’s entitled allotment of electors equals the number of members in its Congressional delegation: one for each member in the House of Representatives plus two for your Senators"

So originally there were 13 states and since each state wants to have its independence as well as well representation this system was devised.

American government has 4 independent centers of power
1. Presidency (<snip>).

2. House . 100% based on population control. (controlled by Republicans)
3. Senate . Each state sends 2 senators irrespective of population. (Democrats)
4. Supreme Court. (Judges nominated by president and confirmed by senate.

Electoral collage is a system that guarantees that nut jobs from CA and NY do not run amok with all power.

thanks for some educashun.

having it in uncle land does not mean it is the best. each country devises its own according to its needs.
The electoral college was designed for earlier centuries not for present one with huge changes now. The founding fathers had different ideas when they did this.
only certain classes were voting, no women till 1920s onwards.Though freedom enshrined -- was not for all. so much for the democracy.

we do have the spectacle of Bush vs Gore issue. which was unthinkable in the past.
Now majority of nut jobs are protected thru electoral college.

reps have much to lose if the present system changes.

(elected through electoral college so that all states have good representation as oppose to 100% based on population, because of flaws in population based democracy the seats in Indian lok sabha have been frozen since 1970s otherwise the states (like Kerala and Tamil Nadu) who are good in population control will get less representation in parliament

different countries have differing requirements based on their leaders and needs. Currently electoral college is not the best. IMHO.
At that time there were issues with slavery and other issues. there were divisions between the rulers themselves. they settled for the present system as we have today to avoid conflicts.

India has Rajya Sabha where seats are based on population proportions.
There is delimitation commission for Lok Sabha which does its work regularly during census and submits reports to the GOI.

This was created in 1776 when Mughals were still ruling from Delhi and were periodically getting looted by many Afghans and Persians (1724 Nadir Shah, 1760s Abdali, etc). At that time American revolutionaries declared independence from England just as Britishers in India were expanding into India (Plassey, Buxar, etc).

unwarranted ones-
Ok here it goes-
american revolutionaries were also whites. it has nothing to do with indigenous Indians (of America).
khan land-- wars were fought between indigenous Indians and the present whites. The whites prevailed and killed the originals inhabitants. the gleat americans were nothing but the progeny of english.europeans who looted and raped local populations. Nearly >70% of khan land were wiped out of originals Indians. Great slave trade worsened for some more decades etc etc before AL did his job, paid price with his life.

in India we did not allow ourselves to be wiped out as in khan land. we kicked the brit butts despite adverse side effects. we also kicked their attempts to convert Indians to christism. victoria rani signed a proclamation to stop converting sdres at the time of Indian war of Independence. briturds wanted to loot and rape India rather than religion(which is more or or less the rule all over the world with abrahamic ones).
we are still alive and kicking.