Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 28 Nov 2012 20:45

What happened to NREGA Smart Cards here can happen to Aadhar Cards too.

~10,000 NREGA smart cards unearthed by fishermen when they went for fishing.

geeth · Post by **geeth** » 28 Nov 2012 21:14

It is a good idea, nevertheless and Kangress wins because of this, just like MNREGA got the UPA second term, Kudos to them. Atleast this will have next to no leakage and after the elections, the food and other subsidies can be quietly capped

.

Italian Mafia supporter's Hazeen Sapna!

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 28 Nov 2012 21:34

India to see 4.5 per cent GDP growth this fiscal

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 28 Nov 2012 21:51

India’s social time bomb is ticking

Going by current trend, India will not be able to repeat the South Korean performance of getting rich in one generation before the demographic transition occurs. At this time, all funding for family planning activities must be cut so that fertility is supported.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 28 Nov 2012 22:02

^^^^
From above...

---------------------------

I have always supported a move to a conditional cash transfer scheme. It has been remarkably more effective in Brazil compared to other schemes in reducing poverty and forcing poor folks to choose winning outcomes. Other countries that have had success with it include the USA, France, Germany, Mexico, Phillipines, etc. The WHO strongly recommends it as well, esp. to replace indirect subsidies. This is something AH has pushed in the past as well. Will there be corruption, absolutely, but it easier to pickup and pinch off with a direct cash transfer scheme.

India still has a massive destitute class of 300-400 million who need help. Other than sitting on the fence and jeering, I don't see any attempt by other groups to try and help these folks. People need to have a competing idea other than a big fat 'NO'.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 28 Nov 2012 23:38

Is India’s Middle Class Big Enough For. . . ?

Using a $10 per capita per day minimum threshold, which seems to be emerging as a global minimum for being economically secure and thus middle class (see a recently released World Bank report of the Latin America and Caribbean region for an explanation) and a $50 maximum threshold, we estimate that about 70 million Indians are part of the middle class. (To get to this estimate, we use the 2009/2010 round of the official Indian National Sample Survey and make a number of adjustments and assumptions described in this technical note. Our thresholds are not that different from those of the influential National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER); our overall estimate is smaller than NCAER’s – see our technical note.)

This means that for the IKEAs of this world it is certainly true that there is plenty of furniture to be sold. Using a $10 threshold, India’s middle class is still larger than the total population of France – the third-biggest market for the Swedish furniture giant.

On the other hand, 70 million people constitute less than 10 percent of India’s population and all 70 million are in the top decile of India’s income distribution. India has a middle class (using the threshold of a minimum of $10 per capita per day) that is not in the middle of its income distribution. Beyond Billy shelves, is a small middle class that is rich by local standards enough to be a stabilizing political force, to constitute the critical mass that is indispensable to accountable and democratic government? There is some reason to be optimistic; by 2030 the middle class using our thresholds could constitute about 20 percent of the population (assuming around 5 percent real growth and unchanged distribution, as we did in this presentation). (For a comparison, Brazil’s middle class already constitute 30 percent of its population – see the World Bank report cited above.) It will surely depend: on growth, the future distribution of that growth, on policies and their effects on growth and its distribution – and on political and other even less predictable unknowns…

lakshmikanth · Post by **lakshmikanth** » 28 Nov 2012 23:42

I agree with Theoji above.

Due to historical reasons a lot of the destitute Indians belong to a "lost" generation. They cannot be rehabilitated into productive members of the society. So considering them to be "lost" and sunk cost, the best thing to do is to give them financial support and then ensure and enforce rules that would help their children to move up in the productivity ladder.

Rules may be: Kid must be in school, must be non-alcoholic, must have no police case, must be certified to be "lost"

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 29 Nov 2012 00:51

I personally think this new direct transfer scheme is the long awaited bailout for Shree Vijay Mallya....

Jokes apart, there are many things to wrap up, right from an 70%-plus wimmen's education to a feedback mechanism that is more real-time than the decade census. I really hope this new thingy works for at least a percentage of the public, since we are not going anywhere with the "reforms".

Abhijeet · Post by **Abhijeet** » 29 Nov 2012 02:54

How will the new subsidy scheme be financed? Considering that the central govt already runs a deficit, how can they initiate such a large subsidy scheme while simultaneously keeping to their deficit reduction target?

====

Regarding the middle class article above: that's a good estimate. Assuming a family size of between 4 and 5, that's less than 18 million Indian families that are part of the global middle class. This explains why the market for many consumer goods is so small. Many purchases are limited per family rather than per person (most families will have one TV, not one per family member), so for many types of goods this sets a ceiling on the fabled Total Addressable Market, or TAM, that market research types (and startup business plans

) love to estimate.

Katare · Post by **Katare** » 29 Nov 2012 03:32

This new cash transfer schem would replace all other subsidies. Govt has no more money to pay anyone and it can't print new money faster than it's already doing.

putnanja · Post by **putnanja** » 29 Nov 2012 10:34

How does the direct cash subsidy in pilot projects replace the subsidy?

1. Will they not be able to purchase anything from PDS ("ration shops")?
2. They will still be able purchase diesel, kerosine and LPG at the subsidied rates. So how do they prevent them from purchasing it?
3. Will they not be able to purchase urea based fertilizer, seeds etc , which are subsidised?
4. NREGA is already a cash transfer scheme, so no change wrt that.

So how will the cash transfer prevent the end user from using the subsidies provided at present in the pilot project?

Sri · Post by **Sri** » 29 Nov 2012 11:01

Abhijeet wrote: Regarding the middle class article above: that's a good estimate. Assuming a family size of between 4 and 5, that's less than 18 million Indian families that are part of the global middle class. This explains why the market for many consumer goods is so small. Many purchases are limited per family rather than per person (most families will have one TV, not one per family member), so for many types of goods this sets a ceiling on the fabled Total Addressable Market, or TAM, that market research types (and startup business plans ) love to estimate.

Right. But data generally depends on organised (reported) figures. There is huge cash and demand in parallel economy that goes untapped. I regularly look at consumer electronics and home appliances data. One company I know sold .5 mn ACs this year still sometime to go for year ending, last year was .48 a year before .45 and they are not even top 3 in the country. So by my guestimate in last 10 years they have sold atleast 4 to 5 mn ACs. Now in a total addressable market size of 18 mn how could it be? AC is a product which depends on number of rooms in a house or office space and not family members. Other product categories also throw up interesting numbers. Average serviceable life span of ACs in the world is 3 years. In India we take 6 years as a benchmark.

So we have now stopped looking at any such numbers coming out of UN / WB / ADP or GOI. We take dealer / stockist and real MR data seriously which is not available publicly unfortunately. I know same is the case in China.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 29 Nov 2012 11:19

Theo_Fidel wrote:^^^^
From above...

---------------------------
I have always supported a move to a conditional cash transfer scheme. It has been remarkably more effective in Brazil compared to other schemes in reducing poverty and forcing poor folks to choose winning outcomes. Other countries that have had success with it include the USA, France, Germany, Mexico, Phillipines, etc. The WHO strongly recommends it as well, esp. to replace indirect subsidies. This is something AH has pushed in the past as well. Will there be corruption, absolutely, but it easier to pickup and pinch off with a direct cash transfer scheme.

India still has a massive destitute class of 300-400 million who need help. Other than sitting on the fence and jeering, I don't see any attempt by other groups to try and help these folks. People need to have a competing idea other than a big fat 'NO'.

Everyone agrees India's destitute need help, but INC record of keeping destitute as destitutes for 65 years is not awe inspiring, all thier schemes have been implemented with political Interests in mind and not improving and reducing the nation's destitute's.

WIth respect to the cash transfer scheme,

1) Regading Hunger- PDS scheme addresses this but is plagued with corruption, I don't see this scheme implementation being any better, local politicans, Bank employees and Govt employees will skim enough from this scheme. all this scheme can do is help them with buying food.

2) Will it reduce the chronic lack of jobs and adequate wages for them? will it improve thier purchasing power?

3) In states like Andhra/ MH liquor shops have come in with NREGA, will the money be wasted on liquor and reduce destitute class in India to bunch of permenant beggers?

4) Will the 300-400 million destitute have bank accounts and unrestricted access? highly unlikely.

Would INR 320,000 crores better used for creating infratructure contruction jobs where millions of destitute will work, become employed, save, understand the importance of education and give thier children education, create value, skills and signifinactly reduce poverty.

the truth this cash transfer scheme will create nothing but beggars for INC vote bank.

take it from me the media will create a Euphoria like in the 50's, 60's, 2004 NREGA and RTI act, but it will be for show and destitute will be destitute.

Brazil cannot be compared with India, they have vast natural resources and relatively low population, what we need is proper jobs. over the last 8 years it is shown India's poor flock to infrastructure jobs, earn spend and try and educate thier children and give them a better life. a free casht ransfer scheme does none of that.

Abhijeet · Post by **Abhijeet** » 29 Nov 2012 11:45

Sri wrote:Right. But data generally depends on organised (reported) figures. There is huge cash and demand in parallel economy that goes untapped. I regularly look at consumer electronics and home appliances data. One company I know sold .5 mn ACs this year still sometime to go for year ending, last year was .48 a year before .45 and they are not even top 3 in the country. So by my guestimate in last 10 years they have sold atleast 4 to 5 mn ACs. Now in a total addressable market size of 18 mn how could it be? AC is a product which depends on number of rooms in a house or office space and not family members. Other product categories also throw up interesting numbers. Average serviceable life span of ACs in the world is 3 years. In India we take 6 years as a benchmark.

So we have now stopped looking at any such numbers coming out of UN / WB / ADP or GOI. We take dealer / stockist and real MR data seriously which is not available publicly unfortunately. I know same is the case in China.

Good points. Would AC data be skewed by the high proportion that's in use in offices?

Do you have a feel for the actual number of families that would constitute the addressable market for say ACs or refrigerators? It would be really interesting to know what consumer durables companies consider as their target market size.

Sri · Post by **Sri** » 29 Nov 2012 15:22

Abhijeet Ji,

According to some estimates the number ACs which can be classified as Home appliances (Central AC systems / Duct / AC plants are not considered CEHA) and sold to businesses and offices is about 23 to 28 % of market. So yes the data is skewed. The problem is that after crores spent on CRMs and other software the industry still only records 30% of end customer data. Dealers and Whole sellers are reluctant to share data.

4.5 cr household is the popular number for ACs but I must add this is not backed up by any data. For planning consideration we do not try to tackle this question. Companies heavily rely on dealers and whole sellers and their health and increasing distribution by appointing more dealers and whole sellers. Every year we stock out by the end of season in ACs and lose market share to weaker brands who kick in exactly at the end of season. Competition is stiff so supply graph is almost getting parallel to the x axis, I think this drives the demand.

Abhijeet · Post by **Abhijeet** » 29 Nov 2012 16:59

Thanks -- it's good to get an on-the-ground perspective. Interesting that the AC market seems quite disorganized -- to the extent that the market size isn't well known -- even though there are many large domestic and foreign companies competing.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 30 Nov 2012 03:55

Aditya_V wrote:Would INR 320,000 crores better used for creating infratructure contruction jobs where millions of destitute will work, become employed, save, understand the importance of education and give thier children education, create value, skills and signifinactly reduce poverty.

It’s a good idea but I think there is a misunderstanding on who our destitute are.

The destitute, who include the old, women, sick, weak and mal-nutrition damaged can not join this process. If you go to rural villages you will see them every where. 30 year olds who look like they are 70. A tough life has destroyed them. Undoubtedly alcohol and drugs play their part, but IME far less than most folks perceive. India is a horrific place to be poor and disadvantaged from birth.

20 years of trying infrastructure has not solved that problem. Infrastructure has also run into a land and financing bottleneck. So should people just drop dead in the meantime. There is a reason our construction sites are filled with single young men from Bihar/Odisha. No one else can bear up under the 12 hour 7 days a week work days at our construction sites.

WRT MNREGA the less said the better about that digging holes in the desert joke. By requiring hard manual labor, at least in my area, much of the destitute class has been neatly cut off from help.

The criticism of Congress incompetence is very definitely valid. But they get away with this stuff because no one else is even trying. If the other groups can't be bothered to help these folks, since they should all get a job, you know, the Congress is pretty much free to do what ever....

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 30 Nov 2012 07:15

The Hindi is scathing in its attack on the cash transfer scheme. Apparently putting and enforcing conditionality costs more than the money being transferred! No wonder we so inefficient. But it also points out that the Congress remains the only group that gives a damn.

http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/ca ... 143870.ece

Even in cases where the money reaches the right bank account and the right person, there could still be leakages in terms of how that money is spent. In some schemes this would not matter. A pension has served its stated purpose the moment it reaches the beneficiary. But there are other schemes such as student loans where a mechanism is still needed to ensure that the money that is transferred to the bank account is actually spent on education. When the cash transfer is from a distant source and the expenditure to be made is local, monitoring how the money is spent is no easy task. And if the money is not used for the stated purpose, it is a leakage of another kind.

The experience of MGNREGA tells us that preventing this leakage could cause greater pain to the beneficiaries. In some States by the time the work done is measured and the payments are released, the workers could end up waiting for months to be paid. In the case of cash transfers too while the actual transfer of funds into bank accounts may be instantaneous, the process of ensuring the money is spent on the stated purpose could cause either leakages or substantial delays.

It is here that the gap between the political interests of the Congress and the social interests of the country is the widest. If the cash transfers are to be politically viable the government must transfer the subsidies on time. And it would be in the Congress party’s interest for the cash to be transferred without worrying too much about whether it is being spent on the stated purpose. If its record is any guide, it would not mind transferring cash for a student loan even if the money is spent on a school or college that is unworthy of that expenditure.

Faced with a choice between a possible political benefit in 2014, and a further reduction in the effectiveness of the social welfare schemes, the Congress has made its choice public. And in a country where we celebrate our economic growth even as over 40 per cent of our children remain malnourished, it is a choice that is unlikely to cause much consternation.

member_20292 · Post by **member_20292** » 30 Nov 2012 11:36

^^ why should the central govt. have to monitor whether 100 Rs cash transfer goes towards paying for school uniform or paying off loan shark debt?

The Hindu is wrong on this one....fantastic paper otherwise.

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 30 Nov 2012 17:41

Theo_Fidel wrote:
Aditya_V wrote:Would INR 320,000 crores better used for creating infratructure contruction jobs where millions of destitute will work, become employed, save, understand the importance of education and give thier children education, create value, skills and signifinactly reduce poverty.
The criticism of Congress incompetence is very definitely valid. But they get away with this stuff because no one else is even trying. If the other groups can't be bothered to help these folks, since they should all get a job, you know, the Congress is pretty much free to do what ever....

These poor 300m indian citizens need a helping hand for sure. But e-cash transfer is not the answer. The answer is physical and validate-able welfare schemes like free schools, free meals, free medication etc to improve their QOL ( ( quality of life ). How and who will track these millions of e-transactions. Suddenly these poor folks are being pushed to adopt e-commerce where they need to open then accounts in a giant PAYPAL ( aka GOI ) server. If a school is not being built then it can be tracked. If mid day meals are not being fed it can be tracked. But if these PAYPAL transactions go missing then can these poor folks track them. They will probably gherao the banks thinking them as agents of PAYPAL. I feel that this is a way back wards and will actually increase fraud but certainly will reduce the cost of welfare to the state. Overall a good attempt to cut welfare cost and hence cut fiscal deficit but not a good idea for the poor. They will soon find out.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 30 Nov 2012 18:41

^ Agreed. In the Brazil case, the favelas residents benefitted - they were a concentrated urban community and not entirely illiterate. With our far flung rurals, who knows how much money will be siphoned away and by whom?

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 01 Dec 2012 02:18

subhamoy.das wrote:The answer is physical and validate-able welfare schemes like free schools, free meals, free medication etc to improve their QOL ( ( quality of life ).

Hmmm. Let me see what could possible invalidate this argument. Oh! I know 65 years of Indian Gharibi Hatao experimentation. Boss this business of free schools and free meals has NOT ended poverty. The simple reason is that this is subsistence level support. They are not starving and dying, but they are not able to make any sort of plan for the future either.

I don't buy this stuff about not being able to track folks and bank account problems. The TN government has a very minimal, Rs 1000 PM, oldage pension plan that ALL folks over 60 are eligible for. In fact most states already have such a scheme. The postal systems/DC handles the job of getting the cash and verifying identity for GoTN. Once folks are properly registered getting the cash to them has been less of an issue. Simple MO, payble at all banks and post offices work just fine. The truly great thing is that everyone knows what is due to them and even cases of Rs20 'shortfalls' have been immediately reported and the postmen suspended. Contrast that with the 'free' healthcare system where no one has a clue what is due to them and no way to complain and collect.

Like I said there will be corruption, but with a cash scheme it is easy even for recipients to track the numbers and demand redressal.

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 01 Dec 2012 17:15

Theo_Fidel wrote:
subhamoy.das wrote:The answer is physical and validate-able welfare schemes like free schools, free meals, free medication etc to improve their QOL ( ( quality of life ).
Hmmm. Let me see what could possible invalidate this argument. Oh! I know 65 years of Indian Gharibi Hatao experimentation. Boss this business of free schools and free meals has NOT ended poverty. The simple reason is that this is subsistence level support. They are not starving and dying, but they are not able to make any sort of plan for the future either.

I don't buy this stuff about not being able to track folks and bank account problems. The TN government has a very minimal, Rs 1000 PM, oldage pension plan that ALL folks over 60 are eligible for. In fact most states already have such a scheme. The postal systems/DC handles the job of getting the cash and verifying identity for GoTN. Once folks are properly registered getting the cash to them has been less of an issue. Simple MO, payble at all banks and post offices work just fine. The truly great thing is that everyone knows what is due to them and even cases of Rs20 'shortfalls' have been immediately reported and the postmen suspended. Contrast that with the 'free' healthcare system where no one has a clue what is due to them and no way to complain and collect.

Like I said there will be corruption, but with a cash scheme it is easy even for recipients to track the numbers and demand redressal.

First of all this is not a poverty removal scheme. This is more of a help to make life a little better for these very poor folks. We are talking about 300m indians who cannot afford two meals day!

Secondly, free schools and free medicine did not work out due to corruption ( lack of governance ) and not due to the fault with these concepts. In places where governance is fine these concepts work such as US food stamps, US public schools, UK public health care etc. In TN do u know what % are FAKE pension holders ( registration problem ) or what % of transactions did not happen ( problem with money distribution ) ? The good thing in TN system is that their is the "last leg of connectivity with the GOI" via a post man who can be can be validated. If the cash does not come in e-cash, are these poor folks going to chase some clerk sitting in a obscure GOI building in Delhi or they are going to chase the bank clerk or they will chase the VSAT data link that connects the PAYPAL server in Delhi head end to the point of distribution server in the remote location or do what...?

Thirdly, who is ensuring that medical money is not being used to buy cheep liqour or wasted on satta or for that matter money for food is indeed being spent on food by the recipient. In the PDS system, atleast the money spent by GOVT goes towards feeding these folks, money spent on hospitals goes towards treating these folks.

I am really skeptical if these destitute poors are capable to handle this tool called e-payment towards their benefit. I would think that it will cause more harm to them. This could well be what we have a saying in Bengal "Badorer golai muktor mala" - white pearl chain in the neck of a monkey

Contrast this with the mid-day meal scheme which works today and when they donot work there is enough public, political and media pressure because these folks all know where to look and find the mid day meal center.

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 01 Dec 2012 21:02

IANS | Dec 1, 2012, 08.20PM IST

MOHALI (Punjab): It was a promise delivered floor by floor. In just 48 hours, an entrepreneur has constructed a 10-floor building in this suburban town in Punjab.

The red and grey facade building, Instacon, stood tall on an industrial plot in Mohali, 10 km from Chandigarh, Saturday, two days after Punjab deputy chief minister Sukhbir Singh Badal had laid its foundation stone.

Work on the building's construction started around 4.30 pm Thursday. By Friday evening, the building saw seven floors in place.

...

Entrepreneur Harpal Singh, who heads the Rs.1,000-crore infrastructure company, had promised that the 10-storey building would be completed within 48 hours.

"This will be the first building of its kind in the country to be built in just 48 hours. The model has been cleared for Zone-V seismic area, the highest risk area (for earthquakes)," Harpal Singh, who owns the JW Marriot Hotel in Chandigarh, said here earlier.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/busi ... 443514.cms

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 01 Dec 2012 22:05

subhamoy.das wrote:First of all this is not a poverty removal scheme. This is more of a help to make life a little better for these very poor folks. We are talking about 300m indians who cannot afford two meals day!

That is where you and I must disagree. There is no point in a poverty scheme if it does not work towards better outcomes for the next generation. We can not keep generating this 300 million destitute class generation after generation and hope to get prosperous. We must consider also the immense waste of human resources going on. There is no need for such a massive destitute class. Our social and economic rules created this class. The main issue is that this destitute class continues to have large numbers of children who then perpetuate this cycle. Near my farm there is 35 year old couple, the woman is blind in one eye and lost a hand to a farming accident. Her husband is crippled by TB and exposure to some industrial chemicals that have burnt his skin. They have 8 children who are slowly sinking into complete destitution. This stuff is repeated again and again and causes our real problems.

A conditional cash transfer scheme can begin the process of draining this swamp. Its aim is to interrupt this social cycle of destroying children. Essentially pay/bribe the parents to end child labor. I'd settle for a 20%-30% reduction in this population every 10 years or so. Of course our aged will be raising numbers.

BTW just for your reference, there are roughly 4.5 Million old folks on just the GoTN pension scheme, so it is a large and robust scheme. In my district alone there is over 1.5 lakhs. Of course I do know some truly isolated destitute, esp. the mentally ill who no one helps. But coverage has actually been quite easy. People often won't send their kids to school for free food, because it does not benefit them directly, but pay them a bribe (because that is what it is) and they will.

Again we must learn lessons from what has been tried and what worked. Free schools and hospitals has not helped remove this destitute class. Cash transfers have worked in other areas and countries.

Also it is incorrect to say that Bolsa Familia is a urban scheme. Its greatest impact has been in rural areas, because even small amounts go a long way there. The schemes difficulties have been in the urban areas where pay for child labor is higher. Where it works, it functions as a minimum safety net so folks can take risk and attempt to improve their circumstances without fearing complete destruction.

ArmenT · Post by **ArmenT** » 02 Dec 2012 00:24

harbans wrote:IANS | Dec 1, 2012, 08.20PM IST
MOHALI (Punjab): It was a promise delivered floor by floor. In just 48 hours, an entrepreneur has constructed a 10-floor building in this suburban town in Punjab.
...
Entrepreneur Harpal Singh, who heads the Rs.1,000-crore infrastructure company, had promised that the 10-storey building would be completed within 48 hours.

"This will be the first building of its kind in the country to be built in just 48 hours. The model has been cleared for Zone-V seismic area, the highest risk area (for earthquakes)," Harpal Singh, who owns the JW Marriot Hotel in Chandigarh, said here earlier.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/busi ... 443514.cms

Sounds like Harpal Singh is going to give some serious competition to Zhang Yue and his Broad Corporation. They both are using the same idea of pre-fab structures being built in advance and assembling them on site as needed.

Meet the Man Who Built a 30-Story Building in 15 Days

The gent who runs Broad is a bit totalitarian to say the least. Interestingly, they plan to spread to other countries too:

The company is in the process of franchising this technology to partners in India, Brazil, and Russia.

abhischekcc · Post by **abhischekcc** » 02 Dec 2012 04:56

The direct cash transfer scheme has a fundamental problem (as opposed to an an operational problem like unavailability of bank branches where deposits can be made). It is that just by giving money to poor does not ensure that services such as education and health will reach them. Because you still need some agency (public or private) to create and distribute these services. And the sad part is that this is a known problem by all NGOs and professional poverty mongers.

Creating solutions and disbursing money is the difference between creating wealth and creating income.

The Marxists failed precisely on this point because they did not understand the difference between creating wealth and creating income. They focused on creating income, and caused their entire economy to suffer sclerosis.

Congress has only proven its ideological bankruptcy in tackling poverty. It is using a failed Marxist/libertarian solution for a problem that is much deeper. Half bred European solutions will not work in India, but this simple fact cannot be understood by half bred Europeans.

Indian poverty is because our traditional avenues of employment were destroyed by the British, and continue to be destroyed by a secular/liberal government. One may say many bad things about the caste system, but it was an employment guarantee scheme like no other. The British played havoc by first introducing cash crops and then by employing scorched earth tactics against people who fought them. It broke down the traditional employment support structures in villages, and nothing was done to replace them. Same story was repeated after Independence when the brown Englishmen enforced centralization of water harvesting (dams) and neglected local ponds and lakes. These things need regular maintenance, and neglecting them ensured that the necessary skills and expertise was soon lost as the next generation did not want to practice them.

-------------

People from a monotheistic background do not understand that the problem IS monotheism and its idea that only centralized power is legitimate.

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 02 Dec 2012 07:49

Theo_Fidel wrote:
subhamoy.das wrote:First of all this is not a poverty removal scheme. This is more of a help to make life a little better for these very poor folks. We are talking about 300m indians who cannot afford two meals day!
That is where you and I must disagree. There is no point in a poverty scheme if it does not work towards better outcomes for the next generation. We can not keep generating this 300 million destitute class generation after generation and hope to get prosperous. We must consider also the immense waste of human resources going on. There is no need for such a massive destitute class. Our social and economic rules created this class. The main issue is that this destitute class continues to have large numbers of children who then perpetuate this cycle. Near my farm there is 35 year old couple, the woman is blind in one eye and lost a hand to a farming accident. Her husband is crippled by TB and exposure to some industrial chemicals that have burnt his skin. They have 8 children who are slowly sinking into complete destitution. This stuff is repeated again and again and causes our real problems.

A conditional cash transfer scheme can begin the process of draining this swamp. Its aim is to interrupt this social cycle of destroying children. Essentially pay/bribe the parents to end child labor. I'd settle for a 20%-30% reduction in this population every 10 years or so. Of course our aged will be raising numbers.

Agreed that this destitute class has to be eradicated but I donot agree that monthly allowance is the way. I believe that the route is via a 8%+ GDP growth coupled with easy access to social infrastructures like free school, meals, education which will enable this class to fill the jobs and have a enduring better life.

One more point that i forgot. This monthly allowance business will expose the destitutes to the market forces. The netas and babus are doing "a pallu jhar" on these folks. They are saying "here is some money and go and take care of your self". Now the way the prices of things are going up these folks will have some money in hand but will not be able to afford the real thing. This is exactly what has happened with right to education. Instead of building and running cheap schools where these children can go, the GOI has asked them to go to expensive public schools ( read market forces ) and promised to give some money per student which the private schools have refused as "way too low" resulting in these poor kids will NOT be able to get education.

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 02 Dec 2012 10:07

Is 5-point-something the new Hindu rate of growth

By Shankkar Aiyar

http://newindianexpress.com/opinion/article1363051.ece

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 02 Dec 2012 13:23

Sushupti wrote:
Is 5-point-something the new Hindu rate of growth

Rate of growth is completely dependent on the quality & vision of Indian political leadership, & their ability to get the middle & upper class to buy into their vision.

I hope a 3 -year economic disaster is good enough to get this simple point into the heads of several who thought it was some kind of birthright based on demographics alone.

vina · Post by **vina** » 05 Dec 2012 16:24

Was watching the Lok Sabha debate on FDI. Murli Manohar Joshi was such a windbag, a rambling incoherent and disjointed speech if there was ever one. Short on facts and logic , and long on fart. A total bore and windbag.

Lalu Yadav gave it back to the BJP in his inimitable style, pointing out the ridiculousness of the BJP position on how the BJP put 100% FDI in it's manifesto, for all the rants of videshi, videshi, they wear videshi watches, use videshi cars and right from shoes buy in air conditioned malls .. why down to Masalas, they buy packaged stuff.. and best of all, "Nescapey Coffe peenay wali madam" and how the even the big box stores can only set up outside the city where there is land and there is no compulsion on anyone, if you want to go there and get it , go, if you want to buy it from your Kirana, do so!

Simply loved his short speech and his jabs on Joshi and Sushma Swaraj. What a difference from MM Joshi and his ridiculous list of veggies and fruits and prices and the rubbish he rambled on and on and on.

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 05 Dec 2012 17:20

vina wrote:Lalu Yadav gave it back to the BJP in his inimitable style, pointing out the ridiculousness of the BJP position on how the BJP put 100% FDI in it's manifesto, for all the rants of videshi, videshi, they wear videshi watches, use videshi cars and right from shoes buy in air conditioned malls .. why down to Masalas, they buy packaged stuff.. and best of all, "Nescapey Coffe peenay wali madam" and how the even the big box stores can only set up outside the city where there is land and there is no compulsion on anyone, if you want to go there and get it , go, if you want to buy it from your Kirana, do so!

Isn't BJP only against overseas firms gaining control of Multi-brand Retail as a service ? Could you expand on how that relates to the issue of overseas consumer brands being barred from India ?

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 05 Dec 2012 19:43

Oh well FDI is coming....sad. What match did indian politicians have against Western corporations when the western politicians are in palms of these corporations? We had zamindars, then we had EIC, then we had a few Indian business houses controlling the lives of millions, now it will be back to western corporations. People get the leaders they deserve.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 05 Dec 2012 20:21

The politico-industrial nexus/dichotomy from F.Investors should not be bothersome for Indians for one.

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 05 Dec 2012 20:28

vina wrote:Was watching the Lok Sabha debate on FDI. Murli Manohar Joshi was such a windbag, a rambling incoherent and disjointed speech if there was ever one. Short on facts and logic , and long on fart. A total bore and windbag.

Lalu Yadav gave it back to the BJP in his inimitable style, pointing out the ridiculousness of the BJP position on how the BJP put 100% FDI in it's manifesto, for all the rants of videshi, videshi, they wear videshi watches, use videshi cars and right from shoes buy in air conditioned malls .. why down to Masalas, they buy packaged stuff.. and best of all, "Nescapey Coffe peenay wali madam" and how the even the big box stores can only set up outside the city where there is land and there is no compulsion on anyone, if you want to go there and get it , go, if you want to buy it from your Kirana, do so!

Simply loved his short speech and his jabs on Joshi and Sushma Swaraj. What a difference from MM Joshi and his ridiculous list of veggies and fruits and prices and the rubbish he rambled on and on and on.

It is funny to see people use colorful language to make a completely subjective opinion sound objective. Defending a Laloo who was opposing English education for masses when his own children are English medium educated, becomes a messiah of enlightenment. Funny.

It was all FDI vs CBI, not a battle of ideas, as is being peddled by so-called secular junta.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 05 Dec 2012 22:17

I'm not worried about the ownership. The problem with EIC was zero political control not the actual existence of a private company. Inherited rulership turned out be a catastrophic error when matched against a private company. The wal-marts of the world will doo what the GOI tells them to despite the occasional bribery scandal.

My real problem is the issue of Chinese imports by Wal-mart specifically. If GOI can change Wal-mart thinking on this issue, then bring on the FDI.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 05 Dec 2012 23:42

2G leadership of Conrace has hardly done anything against foreign imports in FDI.

In fact there is no discussion about any mandatory requirements, such as ban of Indian retailer chains selling off stakes to foreigners, improvements in infrastructure development, %of domestic produce in supply-chain, approval of secret recipes containing banned/non-veg materials, minimum quality benchmarks as a basic FDI criteria, etc.

So all these will be as per foreigners' concerns, regardless of simple topics like profits/loss/supply-chain/etc. etc.

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 06 Dec 2012 08:08

prahaar wrote:It is funny to see people use colorful language to make a completely subjective opinion sound objective.

Don't think Vina was being malicious though...probably just a simple case of Hanlon's razor. He may want to explain how Sushma's Nescafe drinking makes the BJP position hypocritical.

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 06 Dec 2012 09:05

Arjun wrote:
prahaar wrote:It is funny to see people use colorful language to make a completely subjective opinion sound objective.
Don't think Vina was being malicious though...probably just a simple case of Hanlon's razor. He may want to explain how Sushma's Nescafe drinking makes the BJP position hypocritical.

I am sorry to Vinaji, if my post comes across as attributing malice. I wanted to point out a contradiction (according to me). The whole FDI bill is about allowing foreign companies in multi-brand retail. Not about whether to let Coca-cola/HLL/etc stay in India. So a lot of what Lalooji alleged was just off-topic.

vina · Post by **vina** » 06 Dec 2012 09:50

prahaar wrote:It was all FDI vs CBI, not a battle of ideas, as is being peddled by so-called secular junta.

It most certainly was neither of that sort, but clear open display of pure politics at it's basest form.

The BJP with 100% FDI in retail in it's manifesto, under A.B Vajpayee (this was referred to in Laloo's speech) now turns 180deg apart and opposes it. The Congress, under Manmohan Singh , objected to FDI in retail back then and now turns 180 deg and supports it!

All this opposition was for the sake of opposition (by everyone). It is a drama, makes for good sound bites, but nothing more. Both the BJP and Congress will do what needs to be done when in power.

The BJP's antics yesterday were pathetic, when they knew that the govt had the numbers. Despite all the protestations to the contrary, it IS a numbers game. If they had the numbers, they would have moved a no confidence motion against the govt, not against FDI in retail. They could have been more graceful in this.

M&M indulged in classic double speak. Talk is cheap. But it is the vote that counts. What matters is not the dog's bark, but it's bite.

Mamata and the left are a bunch of nut cases. Theirs is the politics of theatre and drama. All noise and no substance. That Sougata Roy was simply unbelievable, even more rambling than MM J , if that was even possible and even more unhinged than him. The BJP could have been more sober . I thought Sushma Swaraj put up a great performance. Time to cashier the likes of MMJ and send them to the back benches. Sushma and Arun Jaitely are great parliamentarians, time for the old fuddy duddies in the BJP to move aside and go gracefully .

BTW, what was the final Akali position on this ?Did they vote for or against it.