Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -II

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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Postby ramana » 11 Dec 2012 23:06

With Salaman Khurshid around most likely GOI will offer PLAN berthing facilities in India while it patrols the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea!

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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Postby ramana » 11 Dec 2012 23:25

US Director Of National Intelligence(DNI) report Global Trends 2030

Summary:

http://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Inte ... 20Menu.pdf

Main report:

http://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Glob ... s_2030.pdf

At a minimum read the summary and mull it over.


With or with out INC India is on the rise.

BTW, Suraj did awesome job of gathering and critiquing the many Golbal Trends reports from US and the Goldman Sachs BRICs report for Bay Area BRF members early in the last decade.
Hope he does the same with this report.

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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Postby brihaspati » 12 Dec 2012 00:58

China goes in brutally rapes the commoner's economy of each of these countries. They are not doing any inlcuzeev grrrowth stuff there. They include the local corrupt and pimpish elite in their personal growth story. The pimps then bring the local fresh meat for Chinese economic digestion.

No reason that Indian counterparts in pimp-biz cannot do the same. But pimping always needed, and still needs the support of the rajanya. The major reason the Indian pimps fail is because their rajanya do not back them up in pimping in foreign lands. Part of that could be their self-imposed trap of walking the Raj cue that India==Hindu and which is shameful and which must be confined into its cage as determined by benevolent monarchs.

Each of the countries that bare their fangs at India, have a solid Raj era elite underlay continuity, and deep biz-financial flow connections to pirate turned ex-rulers of IOR. China, Malaysia, BD, SL, Pakiland - all form part of a very old imperialist drug-loot biz network which the Brits took over from the previous Muslim-Arab-Sri-Lankan-Chinese nexus in the 16th and 17th centuries.

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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Postby brihaspati » 12 Dec 2012 01:03

One should always reember that it was the Sri Lankans who provided Hajjaj with the excuse to attack Sindh under Qasim. The ahimsa SL-ers were sending a ship load of "slaves" and jewels for the personal pleasure of the khalifha at Baghdad, which was supposedly raided by Sindhi pirates. Sindh protested that the pirates were not from their territory or under their control. But an excuse was an excuse after all.

At this time both Chinese and Arab sources say that Indian ships were slower and less well -defended - and the top-liners were the SL and Chinese ships! So a slow, and less well-defended Indian "pirate" ship raided and looted a faster and better defended Sri-Lankan ship.

It should be easy to see who collaborated with whome for what and against whom.

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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Postby brihaspati » 12 Dec 2012 01:06

Buddhism with trade could be an explosive mix. Selective ahims could be just the right cover to sell anything, including ethics or conscience.

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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Postby ramana » 12 Dec 2012 02:19

X-posted. Can go in many threads.....

Gautam Sen wrote this:

Syriana

at news insight.net

Syriana

On the road to Damascus, US plans for the Middle East would impact India.
By Gautam Sen (10 December 2012)

London: The pointed US threats in the last few days to the Bashar al-Assad regime about the dire consequences of using chemical weapons against rebels suggest it is preparing to intervene directly in the Syrian civil war. The likeliest scenario could be the use of chemicals by the Syrian rebels themselves, which will, helpfully, provide a supposed casus belli for an aerial assault by the US and NATO. It will be specifically aimed against the political and administrative personnel of the Assad regime itself as well as key military formations. Evidently, the US and its allies, who have been baying for blood as well as equipping and financing its shedding for months, are determined to administer the coup de grace to Assad. Instigating a chemical-use incident through its proxies within Syria cannot be difficult, with Saudi and Turkish incitement to facilitate it.

The Israelis have rather preferred Bashar al-Assad who, like his father Hafez, has usually been long on talk, but restrained in action. The Golan Heights, despite all the nationalist breast-beating of the regime about foreign occupation, has been tranquil. It rather recalls that the regime had once declined to seize it militarily when the opportunity presented itself. At the critical moment, Hafez al-Assad had diverted crack troops to Damascus, instead of the Golan Heights, fearing a possible threat to his own rule. The Syrian regime, surely not the nicest people in the world, had also looked on with cold-hearted indifference while the Palestinians were being brutally slaughtered at Tal Al-Zatar in 1976. And one might recall the unsparing bloodbath in Homs in the 1980s as well. The Assad family has often had its hands full and Israel was less of a threat to the survival of the family and its Alawite clan, the principal goal, than other domestic sectarian and ethnic realities.

The Israelis are nevertheless risking the extant peaceful life to deliver a potentially severe blow to both Iran and Hezbollah, the latter dependent on Syrian support to flex its muscles on the Israeli-Lebanese border. Both of them are a bigger headache for Israel than preserving the welcome quietude it has hitherto enjoyed in the Golan Heights. It must surely be aware that a new Syrian regime, of any stripe, will be under popular pressure to end this discreet bonhomie. However, the Iranian threat is fundamental for Israel because a nuclear-armed Iran will match its conventional check on Arab ambitions with the kind of Pakistani threat that has stymied Indian freedom to act against Jihadi terror sponsored by it. But Israel and the US don’t really want to attack Iran militarily, unless the clerical regime was on the verge of collapse and a well-timed armed nudge delivered, with due precision, would ensure its disappearance. The cost of a full-scale military intervention would be high, the outcome uncertain and a future that does not guarantee Iran would not resume its quest for a nuclear deterrent. It is regime change that Israel and its allies have been attempting to provoke from a distance. And the unexpected resilience of the clergy is an understandable frustration though they have come very close to unseating them. The implied US argument over the Syrian adventure is that the path to Tehran lies through the ruins of Damascus and it is a contention not without merit.

Regime change in Iran is the most important contemporary strategic goal espoused by the US and its local ally, Israel. It would then make sense of the overthrow of the Baathists, which has, paradoxically, empowered Iraqi Shias sensitive to an Iranian clergy hostile to the West in general and Israel in particular. But the incumbent Iraqi government, emplaced at such high cost in treasure and lives, would be sympathetic to counsel from a new Iranian regime brought to power through US intercession. And both would surely be beholden to the US and the West for their political survival. This rearrangement of the Middle East and Persian chessboard has portentous significance for the world because it will allow the US to wield a resurgent, regional Shia coalition against the truculent Sunni Arabs, responsible for 9/11 and much turmoil across the world besides. And with the threat of worse to come, with one Sunni state, Pakistan, apt to wave its nuclear manhood at the drop of a hat, there is unfinished business for the US. It does not take kindly to being in a position of constantly reacting to events, initiated by countries of little consequence. In addition, it now has unexpected allies to possibly right this predicament once-and-for-all.

The overthrow of regimes in Iraq and Libya also highlights a wily additional US venture that might be termed the “little Kuwait” syndrome. It entails, as it did with the original severing of Kuwait from Ottoman Iraq, the creation of small statelets, which are basically only oil fields, and turning them into full sovereign countries. The onset of this process is becoming visible in Kurdish Iraq and now Libya. Claimants to regional autonomy are poised to take control of oil fields in their area and are already entering into one-sided contracts with multinational oil majors. The deluded Saudis, who imagine they are playing a pivotal role remaking the world at present, while booking whole floors of the London Claridges hotel for a spot of sordid fun, are going to have a very nasty surprise once the Iranians became more manageable. The oil rich provinces in Saudi Arabia are dominated by Shia populations and removing them from Saudi control will be less demanding than relieving an ageing geisha of her silk purse! This will be the final pending payback for 9/11. It will also prevent any Chinese ‘smash and grab’ of oil resources in the way they are attempting in the South China Sea. These minor entities controlling much of Middle Eastern oil resources in the future, in largely Shia areas, will be beyond China’s manipulative reach and beholden to the US and its allies.

Political power has eluded Shias since the founder of Safavid Iran, Shah Ismail I, changed the sectarian loyalties of his Persian subjects by force in the early sixteenth century. He turned a Sunni population into Shias to ensure their political loyalty. But this was a brief interlude of Shia self-assertion, usually the historic privilege of Sunni potentates, which reached an apogee under his illustrious grandson, Shah Abbas. More to the point, the primordial grievance of the original betrayal of the Prophet’s descendants remains undimmed for Shias over the centuries. It is a phenomenon that modern sensibility cannot fully grasp, but held with equal ferocity by Shia nuclear scientists and uneducated Shia bazaaris, both displaying guileless certainty about supposed injustices that occurred thirteen hundred years ago.

This ineluctable truth of historic treachery and assassinations will cement a Shia alliance with the West against their sworn Sunni enemies for the foreseeable future. It is a vast underpinning of hatred which daily prompts the murder of innocent Shia women and children engaged in worship by the Sunni faithful in Pakistan and Iraq. Such divided loyalties and animosities will likely temporarily override Shia suspicions of the West and the fairness of the price paid for oil. This is the destiny American policymakers have discreetly arranged for the hapless Muslim faithful, stranded in the modern world of science and intrigue.

The Islamist regime of Turkey, busy dismantling the secular legacy of its founder, Kemal Ataturk, has allowed over-confidence to overwhelm discretion. It threatens the European Union for denying it full membership while vying for leadership of the sectarian Islamic world in some sort retaliatory pique. It apparently chooses not to remember the fate of a similarly deluded Ottoman Empire that crumbled and the religiosity that repeatedly curtailed reform, which might have salvaged the remnants of its imperial reach. But it has now turned against the two countries, Israel and Syria, though for different reasons, with which it previously enjoyed affable relations. It has jumped onto the American bandwagon against Syria with an opportunistic alacrity familiar in its recent history and that of the UK in relations with the US. But serious dangers portend for Turkey if US intervention leads to the establishment of more autonomous Kurdish authority in Iraq, where it is almost a reality, and then Syria. Were this to be followed by a resultant weakening of Iranian control over its own Kurdish population, Turkey might face a dilemma of greater severity than its Kurdish separatists have posed in the past. The price of one’s own duplicity might be its karmic retribution through the duplicity of a third party only mindful of its own national interests.

India would also be affected adversely in the short run because a sharp rise in fuel prices owing to conflict in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf will impact negatively on growth. Indeed it will pose a serious dilemma for the Indian government because it no longer has the financial resources to subsidize the price of fuel, which so many Indians have come to regard as some sort of birthright! In addition, unrest in the Middle East exposes India’s Achilles heel by underlining its real status as a poor, undeveloped nation that finances its balance of payments deficits by massively exporting labour to work in conditions that are shamefully scandalous. They also underline the desperate circumstances within India that drive so many into the arms of agents, vicious Middle Eastern employers and their governments, who all regard them as subhuman. Thus, a double whammy could be in prospect if the situation in the Middle East was to become dire for any length of time, which is possible. An Indian budgetary crisis will then combine with a balance of payments one. It will create an unprecedented situation for India that had apparently been relegated to the past once it begun traversing the path to sustained growth in the mid-90s, although that too has seemed doubtful lately. And how will India finance the 2G Pharaonic lifestyles to which its politicians and many bureaucrats have become accustomed?

Yet, there is a silver lining if India can survive the immediate setbacks arising from Middle Eastern turmoil. The destruction of Sunni Arab financial power and its ideological fount in Saudi Arabia will bring respite from the insidious Wahhabi villainy that has been poisoning the serenity of Indian Muslims. Its retreat will likely curtail the funding of terror that originates in Saudi Arabia and the repulsive adjacent statelets of the Gulf, who will have their conceited wings smartly clipped. The ending of Wahhabi ideological incitement to truculence, mayhem and terror, that now routinely disrupts life in major Indian cities, including Hyderabad, Kolkata, Chennai and Mumbai, will impose a check on the resources available for mischief. In addition, there will be an impact on the self-confidence of Pakistan that stems from a bizarre belief in the timeless supremacy of its founding ideology and its alleged superiority to all other alternatives, despite the accumulating diabolical evidence to the contrary that is consigning the country to the flames of barbarity and oblivion. The end of Saudi funding and absence of Wahhabi incitement will indeed benefit Pakistan, by allowing it to dimly perceive the harsh reality of its modest place in the scheme of things. Perhaps it will then also behave with appropriate realism in its relations with India.

American policy in the Middle East may offer India some respite from the mighty Jihadi storm brewing within the country, incited by Wahhabi ideology, Pakistani succour to terrorism, and India’s own appalling votebank politics. But like the best laid plans of mice and men, much can go wrong and America’s ambitious attempts to reorder the Middle East radically may come to grief. The biggest known unknown, as one American war criminal once inelegantly voiced, is the reaction of the ordinary masses of the Middle East to events. They are not all fools and zealously ready to sacrifice their lives for political goals. But they are also easily distracted by unfathomable concerns of scriptural verity and dress codes for women, as the on-going Egyptian revolution is demonstrating right now. They may revolt and force pliant regimes to sing a different tune, even if they were brought to power by US and Western imperial designs. The immediate Iranian reaction to the overthrow of Assad’s Alawite Shia regime is also relevant though they may suspect a trap inviting them to intervene. The Hezbollah have stronger cause to join the fray to protect their Syrian lifeline and both Assad and the Iranians may wish to spread the violence to Lebanon to complicate the situation for the US. It is not clear what Russia can do in the event of the aerial bombardment of Syria by NATO, short of having their own troops man anti-aircraft missiles and batteries in Syria. However, they are likely to baulk at the option. Much bloodshed and drama are now promised in the Middle East and India needs to watch and wait, doing little and hoping for much.

Dr Gautam Sen has taught Political Economy at the London School of Economics.


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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Postby D Roy » 12 Dec 2012 04:04

We are moving towards gas in a big way. The United States needs to gives us that blanket FTA waiver.

GAIL already has a 3.5 mtpa deal with Sabine Pass.

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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Postby RamaY » 12 Dec 2012 08:48

Interesting data points.

Sri Gautam Sen's article sounds like a summary of west Asia thread.

Bji... Very right about Buddhism. My understanding, based on what I read, is that this wave has much to answer for pre-Islamic state of the Bharatiya state.

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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Postby brihaspati » 16 Dec 2012 21:33

Issue 1:
Corruption and law:

The existing law and corruption debate throws up an old problem of state organization I have never been to conclude satisfactorily for myself. I find that laws and the insistence on elaborate legal and judicial processes, with a huge state monopoly over violence and coercion - inevitably evolves to a system in which most people most of the time will be forced to break one or more elements of the formal law.

The more people will be forced to break laws, the more power the state has in control over its human resources.

Since, no amount of written codification of laws can cover all possible future situations where the society needs to "judge", the coercive legal system gains enormous power to fill in the gaps left in the forever-inadequate formal description to introduce modifications gradually that add more power to those whoc ontrol and enforce "laws".

That is an extremely convenient tool in the hands of the innermost core of any ruling elite, to hold a sword dagling over the rest of society. The more ambitious and capable an individual is, the more he/she can be obstructed in his/her initiatives by the clever use of legal restrictions [and the final interpretative power held by a small few] and more likely to create conditions by which the individual transgresses the "laws". This can then be used to blackmail the individual and use him/her to feed the ego, power trips, and greed of the inner core.

The Brits nurtured homosexuality and every other form of socially-otherwise-claimed "vices" in its eminents so that they could be used to further the interests of the likes of the founders of the EIC and the aristos. The same process has been repeated in India.

One solution perhaps is to liberalize social mores in directions that have no direct impact on public life. What a person does in his/her private lufe, sexual domain for example should not be a yardstrick to judge a public person. Similarly, make monetary/financial decisions as impersonal and automatic as possible - take the role of financial decisions in public life away from individuals or even committees. But its a very difficult problem that is being used by entrenched networks to maintain a stranglehold on the entire society for their transnational and personal greed objectives.

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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Postby brihaspati » 16 Dec 2012 21:59

Issue 2:
The major difficulty in India's security and down the line even impacting its economic growth, are India's serious territorial holes. The territorial weaknesses, breaches allow Indian neighbours to extract political, economic, and social taxes at India's cost.

Hoping that external powers will help India to neutralize threats, is handing over too much power to other entities, who may or may not always be thinking of India's interests. In fact they are more likely to perpetuate threats becaus by that they can create dependence in India on these externals.

In the current global expanse of opinion-formation, and its impact on politico-military mobilizations, we therefore need to create the global opinion conditions that show any hostile neighbour as the aggressor, and barbaric on Indian commons.

IG made a blunder in allowing BD to be formed before all of the NA and the entire western parts of Paki occupied J&K were formally handed back over to India. Yes, in spite of supposed threats by the USA and veiled ones by USSR - that Pakis cannot and should not be "touched". This one single recapture of occupied Indian territory would have blocked AFG islamists, Paki islamists, and China completely for ever. That block would remove the profit part of Chinese and Islamist initiatives through western Kashmir - and for China, it would then become onlee expenditure in Nepal and BD.

Now because of IG's blunder, we will have to deal with two independent bases for Islamists, for removing Pakistan from the map will still leave secular/liberal pretending Islamist base in BD. She should have allowed the dissenters and fighters to fight from within India, while not so quickly set up an independent territory. The voices of secularists fo BD should have been weakened to the extent that they could no longer cover for the dominant Islamist theme in BD, and then a fall of Pak could be a single fall for both entities. Now, international play will make it most difficult.

JLN's fantastic talent for giving away exactly those parts that would emascualte India notwithstanding - the other territorial hole is the giving away of the not-Muslim-dominated territories around Chattagrama and the port. A negotiation or buying of a corridor with sovereignty from Myanmar is a serious necessity.

We cannot wait forever for our enemies to weaken. India can create conditions by which the neighbour become aggressive. Islamists and communists. We can then create the conditions by which we can crush them, and dissolve their territorial bases forever.

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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Postby vasu raya » 17 Dec 2012 00:39

Snapshot of Pre-Islamic era in South Asia:

Abu Jundal was extradited based on one evidence, his dna report, all paper based evidence presented didn't matter to the Saudis. To get a snapshot of Bharat before Islamic invasions, while archaeological evidence is useful, we need have a project to capture the genetic history as it is today in South Asia.

we can have these 3 groups,

1) Muslims with totally local genetic material
2) Admixture of local and Central Asian genes
3) Direct lineages that are of Central Asian origin

For the 1st group, its either voluntary or involuntary conversion, they can be made to walk away from the dogmatic Ummah and their Indus valley origins or otherwise re-instated. Atleast the perceptions change and they stop being tools.

and the 2nd group, depending on the percentage of local genetic makeup again can make a choice to free themselves from their erstwhile conquerors. Their Stockholm syndrome would have to be dealt with and probably the country's economic progress might help this

the 3rd group and the people from the 2nd group that choose to stick to Central Asian origins especially the clergy would have to be deported, they are as good as any colonialist.

The problem is even the local genetic makeup is variant, however the differential from Central Asian lineages would be clear.

The project could be on the sub scale of the ADHAAR project restricted to the representative population. Internationally there is a race to reduce the cost of identifying whole genomes. Center for Cellular and Molecular Biology (CCMB) and the likes can be tasked with this.

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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Postby brihaspati » 20 Dec 2012 05:49

Meanwhile weren't we talking of Indian presence and influence in Kabul?

Kabul's $100m mosque: a sign of a heavyweight battle for post-2014 Afghanistan
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/dec/09/kabul-mosque-afghanistan

Last month it emerged that Saudi Arabia is funding a $100m mosque and Islamic education centre in Kabul, very similar to the Faisal mosque constructed in Islamabad in the 1980s. Dr Dayi al-Haq Abed, the Saudi minister of hajj and Islamic affairs, has sought to make assurances that the building is not designed to bolster the Gulf state's role in Afghan affairs after Nato's withdrawal in 2014, but the claim sounds hollow.

Meanwhile, Pakistan is caught up in increasingly difficult waves of terrorism and persecution aimed at its minorities and particularly those who are Shia, Ahmedi and Christian. Early this week in Lahore over 100 Ahmedi graves in Lahore were desecrated. A Christian man has died in custody after being charged with blasphemy in Punjab.

The media in Pakistan cannot openly discuss the funding of Sunni terrorist groups from Saudi Arabia and their sponsorship by the Pakistan military. To question Wahhabism and support the minorities is potentially to find oneself in the murky waters of blasphemy and "anti-state activities". Until the Pakistan military accepts and confronts the fact that the major threat to the stability of the country comes from their client relationship with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan cannot begin to stand on its own feet and reclaim its proper subcontinental identity.

The AfPak region has been defined by a Saudi proxy war since the 1970s. The huge oil wealth of Saudi Arabia, and the US dependency on it, is complicated by Saudi Arabia's battle for supremacy with Shia Iran. In the western Middle East this is being fought out through client states. In mid-November King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia apparently hosted a dinner at Qasr al-Sarab in Abu Dhabi to discuss the Assad-Ahmadinejad axis (the UN has struggled to neutralise Russian and Chinese support). Ranged against it is the powerful Sunni Morsi-Abdullah alliance.

How quickly in any case we forget. Reuters recently produced an excellent report on how banned terrorist outfits in Pakistan are, and have long been, funded from Saudi Arabia. WikiLeaks cables described the Gulf states as a "cashpoint for [Wahhabi] terrorism". Saudi Arabia matched Washington dollar for dollar to fund (Sunni) mujahideen against the Soviets in the 1980s.

On account of oil dependency the US has often found itself unable to openly criticise Saudi Arabia. But a report commissioned by the UN security council in 2003 described how in the decade leading to 9/11 Saudi Arabia transferred over $500m to al-Qaida via Islamic charities. The Bush administration is said to have redacted 28 pages of a Congress report that documented Saudi government ties with the 9/11 hijackers.

Wahhabism is seen as hardline religiosity but it is closely allied to the autocratic political regime of the Saudi monarchy. That the impulse is not religious is shown in an absolute disregard for shrines and historic sites. Over 20 years the archaeological sites of Mecca and Medina have been destroyed. In Afghanistan, the Taliban, funded from Saudi Arabia, destroyed the Bamiyan buddhas. In Pakistan they have long targeted Sufi shrines.

In the worst-case scenario, Afghanistan remains doomed to become caught up in the competing interests of regional powers. Saudi Arabia overtly joins three heavyweights for company after 2014: Putin's resurgent Russia, China's central Asian interests and (Shia) Iran.

Energy still remains the key to the shifting geopolitics. In November Ambrose Evans-Pritchard wrote in the Telegraph that the US energy department announced that domestic shale gas production would produce 11.4m barrels a day of oil and liquid hydrocarbons next year, overtaking Saudi Arabia in 2014. Cut the oil dependency on Saudi Arabia and in theory the US has less a compulsive reason to maintain interests in the region.

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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Postby RamaY » 20 Dec 2012 06:51

:D the funny thing is that majority afghans will appreciate this $100m mosque than the $200m power station or $300m hospital Indian built.

That is the strength of ideology and only fools ignore this about their competitors and worse their own.

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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Postby RamaY » 21 Dec 2012 23:37

X-posting from Af-Pak thread

brihaspati wrote:THe question is about timing. When will TSP turn against India formally? Will it continue with its deniable non-state actions, or combine it with a formal TSPA involvement? Will it force the Talebs to do the needful and stay out of the picture only to take advantage of any retaliation that India dishes out?

The question is complicated, because of the US mediated "alliance" for India with the GCC. The Gulf has its own agenda for the subcontinent, and it is not very different from what the Pak wants for the subcontinent. For some time, the primary agenda will be to establish Sunni jihad properly in AFG. Until that is sort of achieved, there will be no immediate attack on India. In fact India may see a decrease in jihadi attacks in the runup to a formal wider strike against India. Cooperation by the Pak and Saudis will increase to lull Indian regimes, or provide the right justifications for the Islamophile core of the rashtryia regime to carry on with their supportive measures for the theology in various parts of the country.

Once the Talebs become entrenched again, they might be given some investments by the Saudis, but the jihadi army that has developed will need fresh territory to practice their killings and rapes. Pakistan will also want a "permanent solution" to its India problem. That is when the "regime change" doctrine that has developed in the Gulf+West would be tried out on northern India.

We can keep an eye out for the pattern of behaviours, increasing cooperation from the GCC and pak, and the progress of entrenchment of the Talebs in AFG, as a sure indicator of when the TalebPak move as backed up from behind by the Saudis and their oil-drug-international-finance connected partners.


There is a conscious and concerted effort to affiliate the Indian Muslim electorate with the wider Islamic interests by certain Indian Political parties, leaders and media outlets.

In one of the new debates about Gujarat election outcome, a political analyst stated that NE is 40% muslim, Bengal is 30+% muslim, UP and Bihar 30% muslim and Kerala is 25% muslim and all these things are going to play a role in evolution of Indian political scene.

Bharatiyas better take note of these networks in action

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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Postby Prem » 22 Dec 2012 00:48

Portrayal of India as Islam practicing country is going on for almost a decade now.
RaMaya Mian, Watch the new trend and Keep eye on the increasing numbers of Ropers in Punjab and Haryana. Once this area is compromised , Nehruvian 's dream of being One eyed King in certain limited belt will be achieved by Congress . GCC Collaboration, Aman Ki Asha with sold out ruling elites and the above population trend , all lead to doomsday scenario in near future. Demoralizing, weakning Arm forces by the same political cabal is done for same reson.Sooner the current indian regime collapse, better for Desh. All one have to do is to take peek into the Congres's inner circle and see how many actual Indians are there.

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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Postby member_20317 » 22 Dec 2012 11:51

RamaY wrote::D the funny thing is that majority afghans will appreciate this $100m mosque than the $200m power station or $300m hospital Indian built.

That is the strength of ideology and only fools ignore this about their competitors and worse their own.



This contorted preference and its various related manifestations have brought me to the conclusion that the real solution is a two fronted attack.

First on the development of a proper Political destiny amongst the Dharmics and second on the Economic ascendency of the Dharmics. Once these initial stage ideal states are achieved and if by then these guys have not seen the writing on the wall then we need to administer the whole Abrahmic zone with our Pagan brand of Love & Peace.

A contemporary version of Bhagwaan Vishnu and Brahmrishi Narad is what we should focus our efforts towards.

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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Postby Abhi_G » 22 Dec 2012 12:47

these guys have not seen the writing on the wall then we need to administer the whole Abrahmic zone with our Pagan brand of Love & Peace.


The question is how? when? and who? We have sooo many ******** in our political arena who are ready to sell anything and everything. Just economic ascendancy does not seem to be adequate. Somebody was talking about some motorham willing to change religion and ideology if it ensures peace. I have experienced such brilliant ideological tactical thinking from both *pagan* females and males in Indian cities.

A thing to note is that the narrative of fulfillment of all material desires and physical fantasies through conquest under the generous nod of divine ideology seems to be what keeps generation after generation under hypnosis. This aspect ensures enthrallment towards 100m $ dollar place of worship and a neutral approach to hospitals, roads etc. developed by a pagan country. India is in a catch 22 situation due to the curious course of our history. G. Parthasarathy today writes in Pioneer to help Afghan army with military hardware along with ongoing investments. India better does that. Yet, one has to digest the *enthrallment* factor which will keep the flames of a future frontal attack on the bee-hive alive.

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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Postby member_20317 » 22 Dec 2012 13:02

Abhi_G ji,

That is why the political consolidation of Dharmics is very important. Since quite long it has been suggested by some very respectable people (leave along the internet hindu) that Hindus should become like muslims. Sikhs have taken the brunt of Islamic love and they are a template for the rest of India to follow on.

The civilizational borders like Iran earlier and now Afpak will always remain doubtful as to which side they fall on and these are invariably enthralled by the civilization that has the political ascendency. Indians are late comers to this game but even as we speak this is realised by Indics. Hindutva is a manifestation of this realisation.

The better educated ones amongst us will have to remain at the forefront of assessing where exactly the event horizon of this realisation is and how to push this boundary ceaselessly.

The wisedom in choosing the course suggested by G. Parthasarathy and which is to a limited extent already done by India is being felt already and will be felt even more so in future.

Take this Masjid building excercise as a kind of insurance policy by a power that knows it will need this. This is what they would like to protect and enhance.

Take the investments done by India as the amount that India feels confident risking for developing relationships.

At least to me it is not a question of whether we should do this investment or not but of how much more do we do and how do we protect it.

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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Postby D Roy » 22 Dec 2012 16:27

What ****** oil dependency?

And people talk about journalism in the west including some Briturd loving types on this forum.

The Americans get double the amount of oil from Canada compared to what they buy from the Saudis.

mexico and Venezuela together supply more oil to America than the Saudis.

The US-Canada energy relationship is one of the most important in the world.

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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Postby brihaspati » 22 Dec 2012 22:43

The violence at Raj Path has shocked the media - "why are these youth provocating [sic] the police? abusing them?" But it was not just young men on a hormonal overdrive, but also young women grappling with the police. These are the signs of things to come. In the past also youth had surged forward - even if ideas were planted by political elite, often beyond what the leaders were comfortable with.

But now there is no restraining ideology anymore. The p-secism is proving not good enough and not a solution for everything. The congress is not realizing this yet and behaving - as expected - like the Brits of late 1920's and eary 30's. If BJP evolves the way the INC evolved in the 1920's to 1940's - then it will be a sad setback for desh. If they pretend to compromise while having the internal will to stay on course - thats fine. but if they compromise to produce a second JLN, this time around - I dont think the upcoming generations will look to either of these two groupings.

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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Postby Pratyush » 23 Dec 2012 08:20

X Posting from AfPak thread.

devesh wrote:so who will be the "rebels" who will shout of regime change in India? can't believe that it will be of the saffron variety; even if they do, they won't be given the legitimacy by the external powers. so what, more secularist/naxal rebels?! or the "youth revolt" ala Tahrir Square? important question is fighting component. who will be given that legitimacy?


Saar Ji, With your keen analytical mind I find the question strange. The stage is set but things have not quite reached the tipping point. The status quo can endure for the next 20 years or more.

Unless you have a saffron consolidation. And the Kamunal forces get past 250 seats in the LS. At that point the forces of anarchy will be unleshed. Not before that.

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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Postby devesh » 23 Dec 2012 09:53

brihaspati wrote:If BJP evolves the way the INC evolved in the 1920's to 1940's - then it will be a sad setback for desh. If they pretend to compromise while having the internal will to stay on course - thats fine. but if they compromise to produce a second JLN, this time around - I dont think the upcoming generations will look to either of these two groupings.



bji,

this is the first time you are openly warning about BJP. are we to assume that you are seeing those tendencies creep into the BJP?

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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Postby devesh » 23 Dec 2012 09:55

Pratyush ji,

I don't expect any "communal" wave anytime soon. just wanted to know what kind of "regime change" mechanism could potentially be foisted in the North.

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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Postby brihaspati » 23 Dec 2012 22:12

devesh wrote:
brihaspati wrote:If BJP evolves the way the INC evolved in the 1920's to 1940's - then it will be a sad setback for desh. If they pretend to compromise while having the internal will to stay on course - thats fine. but if they compromise to produce a second JLN, this time around - I dont think the upcoming generations will look to either of these two groupings.



bji,

this is the first time you are openly warning about BJP. are we to assume that you are seeing those tendencies creep into the BJP?


NaMo is becoming a very strong potential candidate for the gaddi. Either he will have to be eliminated or chaos unleashed. Given the methods traditionally liked by the various involved external and internal forces - targeted assassinations are likely to be the preferred ones. Do you see what that means? From such assassinations, who will benefit? depending on the underhand equations - either side can. Just as other forces in our past benefited from such events.

Moreover, the initial selection of the transitional leadership happened under a foreign-domestic alliance that took care of transnational financial and other interests. Don't you see the same equations happening again? This is where I am worried. They have managed one blackmail element already - and they will keep away chipping at it, by attacking and nailing his associates - at regular intervals. But they must have more to make sure that he will be within the leash. Either they will enforce additional traps, or if they cannot manage to do so - they will have to drop him.

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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Postby ramana » 24 Dec 2012 11:35

ramana wrote:US Director Of National Intelligence(DNI) report Global Trends 2030

Summary:

http://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Inte ... 20Menu.pdf

Main report:

http://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Glob ... s_2030.pdf

At a minimum read the summary and mull it over.


With or with out INC India is on the rise.

BTW, Suraj did awesome job of gathering and critiquing the many Golbal Trends reports from US and the Goldman Sachs BRICs report for Bay Area BRF members early in the last decade.
Hope he does the same with this report.



Nightwatch comments



Will read during the break.

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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Postby brihaspati » 26 Dec 2012 09:31

The Islamist MEK is being pushed by US lobbyists for delisting. Indian analysts should be building into their models about western overnight flips on "terror groups". Its coming for India too. Maybe not immediately - but it will.

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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Postby kittoo » 28 Dec 2012 11:57

A little poocchh to Bji and other senior members who might have observed the phenomenon of conversions and psychology behind that more closely, have you felt that converted women are more aggressive in projecting their faith, especially Christian? This arose in my mind cause in the past few months I have come to notice that, at least here in my campus, its the Christian girls who are so taken up by their faith. Guys dont seem to be bothered much about it. I mean, there are only a few Christian girls here, as far as I am aware, but they have formed a Bible study group here, started Christmas celebrations last year (and the titles they give to these events are typical Church bile, e.g.- 'When love came down from heaven' or 'Be blessed in the glory of Christ the savior'), they do prayer meetings in their rooms daily and sing prayers, which can be heard across dorms and yesterday they even went knocking on every single door in campus singing a Christmas song. Hell, I have never seen them in any Hindu celebration. Just to test, I once got prasad from a temple and started distributing it when they were also in the group. They refused to take it in front of everyone! The next time I asked them to come with me to Diwali dinner and voila, they didnt feel so good!
But I dont see any such problem with Christian guys here. So that made me wonder if there was some deeper explanation for this phenomenon.

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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Postby brihaspati » 28 Dec 2012 21:30

^^^Yes that is a very old-time observation. Consistent across historical periods and cultures. Most of the world is exogamous for women, so culturally they are likely to be more psycho-socially prepared to "out-migrate" even on ideological terms. This is perhaps the reason that Islam specifically blocked that route for women to "go out".

In cultures like India which now discourages independent role-taking for women, and still for a large proportion of women - the society expects them to be the "water that takes up the shape of the vessel", women are conditioned to ideologically become fanatically devoted to whatever family she lands up in, in all and every possible aspects of life - even beliefs systems and rituals.

Women in that sense are also forced to be in a permanent search for a strong identity. Marriage exogamously to another family was a route in the past. Hence women from such cultural backgrounds make extra-fanatical proselytizers/believers if they manage to convert - or others manage to convert them.

Unless, we impose Islam-type death-penalty type divinity-claimed legal sanctions against women to do so - this cannot be checked entirely.

Our families, and even women of the senior/authority positions within families and clans who go into this mutual suspicion over control over their menfolk - with the "newcomer wife/girlfriend/fiancee" should understand, or be made to understand - "gently" - that their whole viewpoint towards power within the family - needs to be changed. They should go out into the world, innovate, create, and go for power in the productive/economic/academic/corporate/professional world - and Hindus have had this model in the past, locked up beginning with the Buddhist ME-anticipatory-extreme-moralism and added to by the Islamists. Thie hunger for identity should be satisfied with "doing" things in the public sphere, in work, in creativity - just as men. Hinduism, in its proper historical perspective - is very much supportive of this. They should be made to realize that they can obtain all satisfaction that is their right - sexual, economic, ideological - while retaining their identity.

Having said that, I am personally not sure that a signficant number of women will not still be hunkering for "strong grips" by society/significant men in their lives. No offense or MCP behaviour meant. It need not be genetic/psycho-sexual and could be the result of long time societal conditioings. But we cannot have really verifiable experiments to draw conclusions on this.

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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Postby devesh » 29 Dec 2012 04:52

http://iranian.com/posts/view/post/2096

The Road to Democracy is through Religious Fascism


Some people are flabbergasted and amazed why Egyptians are choosing the path towards Islamic Fascism. This is the same path that we Iranians have taken and are now experiencing.

In 1970's when the student movement started n Iran people thought that this was the end. We will move to democracy and Iran will become a free society. But people didn't take it into account a very important variable in the equation that makes the formula for Democracy.

Democracy is made of some constants and many variables.

The path is simple but complex in delivery. A country must go through several phases before it becomes a democratic nation or considered to be democratic.

1. Dictatorship - most likely Monarchy
2. Wars
3. Famine
4. Religious state
5. Civil war
6. Semi-Democracy
7. Full Democracy (takes centuries)

If you look at some of the old democracies in the world they all have gone through some or all of these phases as mentioned above; either in that same order or out of the order but never without the religious phase or a major war.

The religious phase will happen no matter what if the country has a desire to move towards democracy.

Many people think Turkey and Israel are democratic countries; however, neither country is democratic. Turkey is rule by a Military that suffocates and suppresses minorities and everyone else. Turkey is the most undemocratic county in the Middle East. They are a wolf in the sheep skins.

Israel is a modern Apartheid state. It is also moving towards a religious right. In Israel 8 out of the 10 student in elementary schools belong to right wing Orthodox Jewish wing (Time Magazine, August 13, 2012, "The Ultra Holy City"). They are very extremist and violent.

Iran has gone through all the 4 phases. Iran has had more than 2500 years of Dictatorship and the last dictator was removed by the PEOPLE. Then we have gone through extreme religious phase in the 1980's which started phasing out in early 2000. Iranian regime is still maintaining its religious extremism but people have moved on.

We also have had famine. Thanks to the British 14 million Iranian died in early decades of 1900. 14 million starved to death through punishment by the British, "The Great Famine and Genocide in Persia, 1917-1919".

In the next few years we will transition towards the path to a semi democracy. The Fascist Islamic Regime will have the same fate like Saddam and all other dictators. The MEK organization has no PLACE in new since they are also religious fanatics. The Monarchist are old and out of touch.

Iran might experience a civil war and disintegration but that will be short and the fate of Iran will be established.

It is in the best interest for the following provinces, Azerbaijan, Kurdistan, Khuzestan and Baluchistan to stay as part of Iran; because they will be exploited like whores by British.

Iran after these Islamic Fascists will be the only Democratic country in that region. So start preparing for that.




interesting. the author is an Iranian.

also, we get to see why perhaps India should keep the Israel option open and well-oiled for the long-term. the Iranian ambitions, even if they turn "secular", cannot be discounted. the British hatred also indicates the "indigestion" part. the "persian" perhaps is immune from digestion into the West. but their ambitions on Baluchistan, and thus Sindh+Gandhara+Punjab cannot be overlooked. Israel option should always be kept open for us.

increasingly looks to me as if the geopolitics of WA+ME+Persia will mean that Israel, sitting smack in the Center of it all, is not to be given up on.

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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Postby devesh » 05 Jan 2013 04:33

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-0 ... shame.html

Rape Wakes India to Its Shame


Chinese media, not known for chronicling human-rights abuses at home, were all over the lethal attack on a 23-year-old Indian on a moving bus on Dec. 16, and her cremation on Dec. 30. Everything from a surge in demand for gun permits among women to a dysfunctional penal system to how democracy is failing India’s 1.2 billion people got enthusiastic coverage in China.

That was until a vast crowd staged protests in the Indian capital. China’s censors also sprung into action to clamp down on Twitter-like microblogs buzzing about young, urban Indians finding their political voice and demanding change. The reaction says as much about China as India (SENSEX), but India’s leaders would be remiss to ignore how this story is playing out around the world.
India’s much-hyped modernity isn’t looking so modern. All the gleaming skyscrapers, software campuses and Bollywood gloss in the world can’t hide the hold that the shameful aspects of old India have on the country. If India is to thrive and move forward, 2013 must be the year of justice.

Brutal Attack

The immediate focus is on the six men accused of torturing a medical student so sadistically that they destroyed her internal organs. The issues of women’s rights, safety and respect have seldom been the stuff of headlines in the biggest democracy. It’s also a complicated issue prone to unhelpful generalities.

But the rape cast a spotlight on something well-known to India watchers but given little heed globally: how badly India often treats its women, how sexual harassment is tolerated and the extent to which backward attitudes must be stamped out. Misogynistic comments from a variety of officials suggesting the victim may have encouraged the attack based on her dress and mannerisms don’t help.

Antipathy toward women begins in the womb. Female infanticide and sex-selective abortion driven by a societal preference for boys make it a stark challenge for girls even to enter the world. A 2012 Unicef report found that 57 percent of Indian males aged 15 to 19 think wife beating is justified.

In an odd twist, India has had its share of female leaders, Sonia Gandhi among them. In everyday life, though, women play a secondary and subordinate role. Often they are seen as human beings only if there is a man -- a father, brother or husband -- to validate them.

Take the chilling tale of a Punjab teenager raped a month before the New Delhi attack. Rather than receiving justice, she was humiliated by police who tried to pressure her into marrying one of her rapists. Late last month, she committed suicide by drinking poison. That might not have happened were punishment for rapists certain, severe, rapid and not biased against victims.
India is, no doubt, grating at the media scrutiny from overseas, but some good may come from it. Complacency means India could soon be the first BRIC economy -- Brazil, Russia, India, China -- to lose its investment-grade rating. It desperately needs more domestic investment to propel growth above the current 5.3 percent pace.

Outsiders encourage developing nations and cities to increase their attractiveness to investors, bankers and foreign talent. Attention normally focuses on the quality of roads and power grids, housing, education, pollution and legal certainty. In India’s case, add rape to that list.

Easy Years

The other big justice issue for 2013 is economics. The protests in New Delhi come as one of the giants of India’s economic revolution, Ratan Tata, steps down as head of Tata Sons Ltd. after two decades at the helm. He built the business into a $100 billion global conglomerate in ways that demonstrate why some bet India will be a more successful economy than China in 20 years. Yet Tata’s departure coincides with the end of another era: the easy years of globalization and the growth it brought.

Gone are the days when India could get by on pockets of success in software and industry. Rising stars such as Indonesia and the Philippines are waiting behind China to grab market share. Policy drift in New Delhi and little progress in ending corruption get much of the blame. India wants to boost growth to 8 percent or 9 percent, but what’s the point if graft concentrates its benefits among the elite?

The spark for the protests in New Delhi was an act of unspeakable violence. But the tenor has broadened, at times taking on the same Arab Spring-like quality as the protests led in 2011 by anti-corruption activist Anna Hazare. It is telling that so many young, urban men are among the aggrieved denouncing the rapes. That is a nod to the important role that gender equality plays in eradicating poverty. But these demonstrations are also shaking the conscience of middle-class Indians who sense that their leaders have lost their way.

The government’s tone-deaf response initially fueled the outrage. Rather than engage the masses, authorities clashed with them and appeared more interested in cordoning off the city’s political center, China-style. Not a great report card for the India envisioned by Mahatma Gandhi.



the new narrative?

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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Postby svinayak » 05 Jan 2013 07:06

Why is the 'Shame' used for India.
http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/vide ... OeHQ-TAfD8

Disturbing Video Leaked in Steubenville, Ohio Rape Case
(Image source: YouTube/Mark Bacchus)
BY LOGAN TITTLE

A cell phone video leaked last week by hacktivist group Anonymous has added fuel to the fire surrounding an alleged rape in an Ohio town.

A group of high school football players is accused of raping and kidnapping a 16-year-old girl, who was allegedly drugged, taken to numerous parties, assaulted and urinated on last August.

Now a new piece of evidence in the case shows the teens laughing and joking about the alleged events—and we must warn you, it might make you uncomfortable.

“You don’t have foreplay with a dead girl...She’s deader than a doorknob...He raped her harder than that cop raped Marcellus Wallace in Pulp Fiction...”

The video was allegedly posted on YouTube the night of the incident, along with Twitter posts and pictures taken by those who were at the parties where the girl was being dragged.

The Daily Mail explains the Ohio town is torn by the case, with some supporting the girl in her accusations and others taking the sides of the players, claiming she made up the horrific events to hurt the football program.

So far, two football players, Trent Mays and Ma’lik Richmond, have been charged with rape and kidnapping.


http://www.newsy.com/videos/disturbing- ... ideos+Feed)

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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Postby Klaus » 05 Jan 2013 08:20

brihaspati wrote:Having said that, I am personally not sure that a signficant number of women will not still be hunkering for "strong grips" by society/significant men in their lives. No offense or MCP behaviour meant.


Most sociology studies on Multiple Concurrent Partnerships are empirical in nature. Although I'm hopeful of finding some info sooner than later which could validate this hypothesis, thereby providing some degree of verification.

Will post back here when that happens. Have such studies been undertaken for leading lights of the past such as IG, Sarojini Naidu, Jackie Kennedy (not strictly political)? Could provide an interesting direction as to how "political destiny" has been crafted rather than pre-ordained.

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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Postby brihaspati » 05 Jan 2013 19:24

Should leave the first two aside for the moment. Matthai's version is still banned and the onlee version that could provide material. For the second, things are even more complicated. The third is safer to analyze. But she fits the model perfectly - Catholic ambience, repression-hedonism dynamic, switch-over to excessive "diversity/satisfaction/tasting" mode.

I meant a slightly subversive line - that such female personality types might still be looking for or expecting "strong men" and "masculinity" [according to their foundational training]. This could show up as finding another ideology/religion as more "masculine" than their birth-origin ones, or having sequential relationships with "powerful" men, etc. Problem, is, its nearly impossible to experimentally separate the factors of conditioning by society/environment and genetics - for such issues.

Some studies exist on Catholic women from very strict upbringing, actually switching over to fundamentalist Islam. Often proving more "pure"in zeal and action than the Muslim men they fall "in love" with and marry. A curious confirmation should come from Islamists of Mughal period, acknowledging that captive, more often, abducted Hindu women proved more loyal and committed to their abductors/enslavers than born-Muslims. [Source - Jehangir, a top Islamist of his times, especially where it came to enslaving women as a theological necessity].

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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Postby ramana » 06 Jan 2013 06:50

bji, Mathai book in its full extent is available at scribd. And it has data on the first and second one's daughter.

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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Postby Klaus » 06 Jan 2013 11:02

brihaspati wrote:I meant a slightly subversive line - that such female personality types might still be looking for or expecting "strong men" and "masculinity" [according to their foundational training]. This could show up as finding another ideology/religion as more "masculine" than their birth-origin ones, or having sequential relationships with "powerful" men, etc. Problem, is, its nearly impossible to experimentally separate the factors of conditioning by society/environment and genetics - for such issues.

Some studies exist on Catholic women from very strict upbringing, actually switching over to fundamentalist Islam. Often proving more "pure"in zeal and action than the Muslim men they fall "in love" with and marry. A curious confirmation should come from Islamists of Mughal period, acknowledging that captive, more often, abducted Hindu women proved more loyal and committed to their abductors/enslavers than born-Muslims. [Source - Jehangir, a top Islamist of his times, especially where it came to enslaving women as a theological necessity].


Perhaps the recent FBI allegations of Marilyn Monroe's pro-socialist activities could bring about a study on women's roles in totalitarianism- their roles in initiation right upto the point of subjugation.

In addition to Mughals, a historical data-point could be the Queen Sheba bringing mono-theism to the Sabaean kingdom after finding a pillar of support (no pun intended) in Solomon, where she formerly worshipped a form of the Trikakuta.

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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Postby brihaspati » 07 Jan 2013 07:38

Indians ashamed to be Indians over the rape : confusing Indian identity with foreign misogyny:

Bollywood superstar Shah Rukh Khan and Tech Wizard Narayana Murthy – two iconic Indians of modernity, from two opposite ends of public entertainment and economic value creation, have been reported on Indian media as supposedly having felt “ashamed to be an Indian” over the issue of the Delhi gang rape.

Women activists on TV chat shows and discussion rounds have directly or indirectly blamed “Indian traditional attitudes” for the mistreatment of Indian women. The list of complaints is long : patriarchy, religious orthodoxy, fundamentalism. The overall impression in going through the media representations is however – a definite sense of discomfort in blaming “religion” for it. The reasons are obvious, because both Islam and Christianity in India have shown their orthodox, and religiously motivated, attitudes towards the female body and the female role in society so often and so intensively – that the main target of so-called secular politics, that is “Hindutva”, cannot be singled out, and the prime favourites of secularists will also get tarred and feathered.

The real reasons as to why Indians are in a spot is because they have been forced by regime dependent and encouraged professional historiography to cover up the reality of Indian cultural development, being forced to swallow fanciful reconstructions of Indian past where foreign imperialist ideologies like Islam and colonial period European Christianity had to be shown as having immensely positively shaped and “reformed” a supposedly “backward, primitive, pagan, Brahminical, repressive” Indian society.

The brevity of this post forces me to touch upon some of the myths of Indian history – especially where it concerns women, but very briefly.

Vedic and Puranic literature show ample examples of women choosing their own husbands, having the right to approach and be “satisfied” by a man they took fancy to, to go out on dates with other men even while having fixed longer term partners and children [the very institution of Vedic marriage rites as a contract of mutual loyalty by the sage Swetaketu - son of Uddalaka - because he did not like his own mother going out with a strange man when he was a child and his father explained that women were free to "roam" and were not be held as private property]. If a woman chose to have a child outside of marriage, she and her child were both acceptable – for example, a founder of a Brahmin lineage, Bharadwaja, was a son of his mother Mamata by her brother-in-law Brihaspati (brother of her husband), and delivered twins she carried at the same time – one from her husband, and the other from the brother-in-law. Puranic literature shows many cases of women proposing to men they fell in love with, or have clandestine marriages [the story of Shakuntala], and being recognized as founders of prestigious lineages. Brahma’s unmarried daughter Saraswati declares that she would like to go and “live” with the Gandharvas because they know how to “please” women and she is not prevented from doing so.

The two famous epics, Ramayana and Mahabharata are much lambasted by western and Indian scholars as epitomizing patriarchal attitudes and repression. The central story of Ramayana revolves around the destruction of a whole city and a king because he abducted the wife of another. But the same story also told how an “adultress” could still “come back to life” and be taken back into society (Ahalya), and how it was okay for a wife to collaborate in the murder of her husband to marry the brother of his husband, whom she loved (Tara). A key feature of the Mahabharata is however that a woman could practice polyandry – with the lead characters of the five-brothers sharing one significant wife. What is not mentioned is that Mahabharata shows the prevalence of swayamvara – the open and public choice of husbands by eligible girls, and of warrior women who go and fight alongside their husbands or even without husbands. At least two women, Satyabhama, the wife of Krishna, and Chitrangada, the wife of Arjuna – are described as having actually taken to the battlefield – with their partners/lovers/husbands.

A primary cause of the core story of the Mahabhrata war is given to be the molestation of the wife of the five-brothers in public space. Thus molestation of women was seen to be worthy of terrible retribution. In fact in a little highlighted passage, Krishna explains the reason as to why the brothers who were reluctant to shed the blood of their kin, should actually take up arms – because if their elite-status wife could be so molested, what about the protection of women in general society? They should fight the war to re-establish “dharma” which among many other things, was also supposed to ensure freedom and dignity for women. With one exception, all abduction of women, in Mahabharata is punished – one way or the other – even in a society that recognized certain types of “abduction” if ended with “honourable” marriages. Bhisma, abducts Kasi princesses to give in marriage to his nephews (by the custom of his times he had a right to be angry because his nephews had not been invited to the sayambhara of the girls), but is punished for not marrying them – even if he did not rape or molest them – by having to die at the hands of a transgender enemy. The Kurus are destroyed horribly because their leader molested a wife.

Interestingly, women were abadhya/aghnaya – or could not be killed, even in war-situations. A commander of one side, Bhisma, drops his weapons when faced with a transgender opponent- whom he considers a woman, and allows himself to be fatally wounded to maintain this principle of conduct of war.

Sounds oh so Brahminical and patriarchal and repressive towards women, sexuality and the female body?

Indian regimes and historians often portray the advent of Buddhism as a “liberating” and “reforming” movement that “cleansed” Indian post-Vedic society from the “evils of Brahminism”, and try to shift all blame to the Vedic as being repressive towards “caste” and “women”. I have great respects for the Buddhists, but I am intrigued by very curious features of early and later Buddhism, that go against the propaganda.

First, early Buddhist literature show two things not shared in general by the Vedic – the gradation of human work as “uttama” (good/higher) and “adhama”(evil/lower) based, presumably on whether the work involved violence or not, and the emphasis given in Buddhism to the connection between “uttama/adhama” karma to reincarnation in a better future life or lesser punishment in such future existence. This would give an early pointer as to how and why categories of work connected to animal husbandry or butchery, or tanning would become later “untouchable”. Buddha and his disciples seem to be over-aware of “superiority” of caste. If one tries to read up the extant early Buddhist literature, one can see “Brahmana” and “Sramana”(the term reserved for Buddhist aspirants and initiates) used equivalently. Moreover the Buddha is reluctant to be born in any other caste that “Kshatryia”or “Brahmin” in his next incarnation as Maitreya – because those are the “empowered” categories of society. So even the early Buddhists did not think their movement would abolish castes and hierarchies.

The more important feature relevant for our current discussion is the attitude towards women, women’s bodies and their dress and public behaviour. Many Vinayas and early texts portray women who freely move around in public in a disparaging tone, hinting at “low moral character”. Significantly the Buddha is claimed to have been reluctant in the early days to allow women to become members of his cloister or become nuns. After a lot of appeal from the women, he is supposed to have allowed them to join on condition that they follow certain restrictions on conduct in addition to those applicable for monks. Most interestingly these conditions pay a great deal of attention as to how the female body of the nun is to be “covered up” and require the nuns to be always under the authority of a male monk.

Bhikṣunīvibhaṅga, says that a bhikṣunī “should not show her nakedness when bathing. She is advised to either bathe in a screened-off area or to wear a bathing cloth”. Also another must-wear is kaṇṭhapraticchādana, “a robe that covers the rounding (of the breasts)”. All the Vinaya texts devote a lot of space to discussing the exact forms of coverage of different parts of the nun’s body – all adding at least two more items of covering-dress over and above the three reserved for monks.

The important thing to note here is that the nuns are segregated cloistered members of the movement, and their covering up in public is insisted upon as “setting an example” to “society” on exemplary “moral conduct”. This in turn implies that their covering up was not needed within a segregated cloister, and the general public was less concerned about covering up – so much so that the nuns had to be sent out to set an example.

But let us see what the non-Buddhists – before the advent of the Buddhists, were doing about women. Vandhul Malla, and his wife, a couple of martial arts experts and warriors, trained Visakha, the daughter of prosperous merchants, in warfare, chariot driving, weapons and “wrestling”. This daughter of merchants, married another merchant, set up her own household away from the extended family of her husbands, and ran her own business over and above that of her husband’s. This was the lady who was very much in public life, and with many other similar independent, business or otherwise productively engaged women – who were instrumental in promoting the early Buddhist “church”. They were not Buddhists, or the society that produced them were not Buddhists.

Chinese pilgrims visiting India from the middle of the 4th to the 8th century, similarly speak of the general freedom of movement of women, and the general law-abiding nature of citizens, with not much mention of crimes against women. This is the period when Buddhism was supposed to be in retreat, under huge repression from revivalist “Brahminism”.

Many of the women activists on Indian TV have referred to how “suttee” was stamped out by colonial regimes, as a model of how to deal with “patriarchal repressive traditions”. Interestingly, even as late as the first successful Muslim raid on Sindh portion of India in 712, as per the version of Islamic chroniclers whose claims on Indian society are claimed by professional historians to be “accurate” if they show non-Muslim society in any negative light (but “exaggeration” and “boasting” or “fanciful” if it shows Islam in negative light) – the mother of the reigning king, wife of Chach, had actually helped in the assassination of the previous king and her previous husband – because she had fallen in love with a visiting handsome young Brahmin to her husband’s court – Chach.

Note that a wife could remove her husband from power, marry her lover, without facing social hue and cry and opposition, and without being forced to commit “suttee”. She was a “Rajput” to boot too.

But with the advent of Muslims, Indian society goes quickly downhill. Rape, abduction, public humiliation and sale of captive women become the norm. Girls and women are no longer safe in the public domain, and educational or professional space is closed off for women. The extremely misogynist, and sexually commodifying memes in Islam and Sharia take over the definition of Indian womanhood.

In my “how Islam came to India” series, I have shown how Qasim’s successful raid (three previous ones had failed) had as one of its primary objectives (apart from making good the war chest) the capture and enslavement of Indian women. Thousands of Sindhi women were captured, inspected in the public like cattle, enslaved and given as rewards to jihadis or reserved for the Baghdad markets and for the private pleasure of the pious leaders of Islam around their Gulf dens. The Islamic attitude that entered India at this stage can be estimated from the Islamist side story that – Qasim was executed with typical Islamic barbarity (by being stitched within raw animal hide, and then nails driven into the bundle – the rawhide would dry up and strangulate him also at the same time). His crime : the two Sindhi princesses he had sent for the pious head of Islam – the Caliph’s personal pleasures – were found no longer to be “virgins” in the bed by the pious Caliph. Whether the girls themselves tore their hymen and accused Qasim of “rape” – as told in some versions of the story, or their hymen tore because of some other causes – the fact comes out that these enslaved girls were vulnerable to rape during transport and sale.

All those crying hoarse about “Indian” traditions, should take note of the explanatory note given as the speech by the princesses – to the effect that they warn the Caliph about not “trusting mere women” on accusations of “rape”, and that the Caliph should not have taken their word for it. This single story gives out the entire mindset of Islam that imposed itself on India. A girl crying rape was not to be believed easily against a man’s claim of innocence. Women are manipulative and they cry rape by tearing their own hymen. The status of a woman is that of “merely a woman/slave” and hence her words did not matter. And most significantly, where the “virginity” of the woman did not matter to the repressive culture “brahmin” Chach who married a widow and happily produced children with her – in the same period – the supreme leader of Islam has his goats shaken by discovering that his captive and enslaved bed-fellow was not a “virgin”.

How did women began to become a “problem” for Hindu households? In my post on “peaceful Sufis”, I have given the details on how the famous Sufi founder of Ajmer Sahrif obtained his wife. He “dreamed” that his prophet visited him and chastised him for not “keeping sunna” (not having a wife) and promptly the local Islamic commander arranged for a regional chief’s daughter to be captured and given to him that very “night”. The Sylheti “mouthpiece of peace” from Yemen, Shah Jalal – took up swords against the local non-Muslim ruler, whose daughter Anandi “promptly fell in love with this paragon of peace with a sword in hand on the battle field itself” (what was the girl doing there?), and was “immediately” “converted” and was married on the “battlefield”.

Shams Siraj Afif (fourteenth century) write “Firoz Shah was born in the year 709 H. (1309 C.E.). His father was named Sipahsalar Rajjab, who was a brother of Sultan Ghiyasuddin Tughlaq Ghazi. The three brothers, Tughlaq, Rajjab, and Abu Bakr, came from Khurasan to Delhi in the reign of Alauddin (Khalji), and that monarch took all the three in the service of the Court. The Sultan conferred upon Tughlaq the country of Dipalpur. Tughlaq was desirous that his brother Sipahsalar Rajjab should obtain in marriage the daughter of one of the Rais of Dipalpur. He was informed that the daughters of Ranamall Bhatti were very beautiful and accomplished. Tughlaq sent to Ranamall a proposal of marriage. Ranamall refused. Upon this Tughlaq proceeded to the villages (talwandi) belonging to Ranamall and demanded payment of the whole year’s revenue in a lump sum. The Muqaddams and Chaudharis were subjected to coercion. Ranamall’s people were helpless and could do nothing, for those were the days of Alauddin, and no one dared to make an outcry. One damsel was brought to Dipalpur. Before her marriage she was called Bibi Naila. On entering the house of Sipahsalar Rajjab she was styled Sultan Bibi Kadbanu. After the lapse of a few years she gave birth to Firoz shah“. If this could be accomplished by force by a regional officer, there was nothing to stop the king. In the seventeenth century, Jahangir writes in his Memoirs that after the third year of his accession, “I demanded in marriage the daughter of Jagat Singh, eldest son of Raja Man Singh (of Amer). Raja Ram Chandra Bundela was defeated, imprisoned, and subsequently released by Jahangir. Later on, says Jahangir, “I took the daughter of Ram Chandra Bandilah into my service (i.e. married her)”.

Ibn Battuta who visited India during Muhammad bin Tughlaq’s reign and stayed at the Court for a long time writes: “At (one) time there arrived in Delhi some female infidel captives, ten of whom the Vazir sent to me. I gave one of them to the man who had brought them to me. My companion took three girls, and – I do not know what happened to the rest.” On the large scale distribution of girl slaves on the occasion of Muslim festivals like Id, he writes: “First of all, daughters of Kafir (Hindu) Rajas captured during the course of the year, come and sing and dance. Thereafter they are bestowed upon Amirs and important foreigners. After this daughters of other Kafirs dance and sing. The Sultan gives them to his brothers, relatives, sons of Maliks etc. On the second day the durbar is held in a similar fashion after Asr. Female singers are brought out. the Sultan distributes them among the Mameluke Amirs”. Thousands of non-Muslim women were distributed in the above manner in later years.

The few incidents I quoted above, are just a few among thousands of such narratives – described with pride and glee by Islamic chroniclers. Wherever Muslims arrive for the first time in India, their chronicles show extreme surprise at the openness of Indian/Hindu womens’ public presence, their lack of “proper covering” (proper in the Islamic head-to-toe sense), and their relative freedom in society. The father of the doyen of Indian secularism – Hyder Ali, father of Tipu – is described in Nishan-i-Hyduri to have enslaved Coorgi women when he attacked Coorg – for their heinous crime of walking about bare-breasted or short dresses.

Thus it became a norm for Indian society – to be anxious and unhappy at the birth of the girl child, because the girl child brought rape, raid, and destruction of families, livelihoods, and entire communities. The girl child had to be married off early, hidden from the eager glances of every local muslim who felt it was his divine right to appropriate the beautiful of the kaffir for rape or other pleasures , and therefore not to be educated, not to be given skills to run businesses or professions, and closeted out of sunlight. Hidden away from the public place – so that even her existence did not come under the notice of Islamic hunters for female flesh.

Society takes a long time to come out of what had become a rationalization of impotence – especially if it had to be tolerated for more than a thousand years.

Indian culture is not about the violently misogynist memes of the Middle East, and Indians should not feel ashamed of their true culture – which was far different from the Islamic hybrid it is now pushed as for. It is a case of mistaken identities.

ramana
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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Postby ramana » 07 Jan 2013 07:49

Vande Devaguru.

Please blog this so we can disseminate it.

RamaY
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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Postby RamaY » 07 Jan 2013 08:33

Thank you Bji.

I request all forumites to copy this post into the comments section of every online news article, blog post that they come across on this topic.

Also create mailing lists and forward to your friends and colleagues.

P.S: Bji, I hope you don't mind it. Often people read the comments when they are in line and would be lazy to click the link to your blog.

Prem
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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Postby Prem » 07 Jan 2013 09:35

brihaspati Sir ji
I think our Poojya PM Sahibs in his PM years took the cue from the diary of Babuta when he declared the first right of Muslims over Indian resources. I have this suspicion that he knew exactly what he was saying and pandering to this psychology of Ropexcretiousness.

abhishek_sharma
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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Postby abhishek_sharma » 07 Jan 2013 09:44

If I remember correctly, Ganga left Shantanu because of some disagreements. She could not be forced to live with him against her wishes.

Re sutte: Many women in Mahabharat did not become sati. Example: Satyavati, Ambika, Ambalika, Kunti.

Madri was advised to not become a sati by Kunti, but her advise was not accepted because Madri felt responsible for the death of Pandu.


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