Cruise Missile Test in Pakistan: Final Thread

Sunil
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Postby Sunil » 23 Aug 2005 19:30

Hi Tilak,

If you read my first post on the thread - it clearly states that the thread is aimed at Pillai and Syed and other Pakistani lurkers. Ever since Capt. Hali was kind enough to type the words Bharatrakshak.com in the Nation newspaper, every Pakistani worth his salt in Islamabad is logging into BR and looking for a thread titled "Cruise Missile Test in Pakistan". To get an idea of sense of what is going on - the last Cruise Missile thread has in just three short days had close to 13000 views. It takes most other highly popular threads on BRF a month to do that. We have an opportunity imo to communicate with the Pakistanis and that opportunity should not be wasted.

Hi Enqyoob,

Do I really expect them admit that they have understood anything? - I have an open mind on that. I am willing to give them a chance to disappoint me. If I don't give them a chance who will? certainly not you... most people in GoI I feel probably don't want to give them a chance anyway - given how much GoI blood has been spilled in the last decade by Pakistani-sponsorred terrorists. If I give them a chance and they disappoint me then they will have only succeeded in making more enemies than friends. It appears Pakistan's national philosophy relies on making enemies out of people - Pakistanis are apparently more comfortable with enemies as neighbors. I have no problem with approach - hey with friends like Pakistan - who needs enemies - someday even TSJ will understand that - but it is key that we tell the Pakistanis what kind of talk is simply unacceptable in the language of enemity.

My problem is very simple. I am told regularly by my American interlocutors (to use a term popularized by MEA Sri. Jaswant Singh) that Musharraf regime is unstable and prone to Jihadi takeovers. Whenever I ask them why is LeT still allowed to operate when it threatens US interests in Afghanistan and Iraq and threatens India - I am told that Gen. Musharraf is on a weak footing and cannot be asked to do very much. I hear that Prime Minister Blair was told something similar when he asked the Pakistanis to act against those responsible for the London bombings. Now at this point when I start hearing a uniformed Pakistani military officer alluding to the possibility mating warheads with weapons - I will naturally assume the worst - won't I? I mean this is not some civilian in a saville row suit - this is a man in Khaki and in Pakistan's caste system the civilians are his servants. Hain na?

So my point to Pillai and Syed is also very simple - go tell your Pakistani friends that they should either stop pretending that Jihadis are going to topple Musharraf or they should avoid getting into situation where they make ambigious statements about the state of Pakistan's nuclear readiness. Because you see... not all of us are idiots and some of us actually know that Pakistan's real deterrence is powered by JDAMs and not some chinese supplied modified sex toys.

Sir, even we have a reputation - or "disreputation" to preserve and when some Pakistani person comes up and randomly takes a slice from the forums opinions and plasters it before a Pakistani audience - it is best that the Pakistanis are exposed to the full spectrum of views in India. The GoI am sure will someday say something about the test - but until it does - our disreputable forum can serve as a place for discussion and debate.
Last edited by Sunil on 23 Aug 2005 19:57, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby Sunil » 23 Aug 2005 19:55

Shiv,

I agree with this idea of yours

In this context - I believe that the threat to Musharraf is not from the pillais and the syed yusufs. They are the establishment's children, and as such represent a creamy layer in Pakistan. The real problem for Mushy may be between the creamy layer and the layers underneath.


That is precisely my problem - when an unnamed defence official gives this kind of suggestion to a reputed journal like JDW - I become very worried.

I am still a bit taken aback to see Pillai's statement about

This is just about India-Pakistan why will Uncle Sam come in..


Does Pillai or anyone else in Pakistan feel that Uncle Sam does not understand that Pakistan's true deterrent lies in the JDAM?

Does Pillai or anyone else in Pakistan feel that Uncle Sam or the PRC will endorse a Pakistani JDAM attack on India?

Does Pillai or anyone else in Pakistan feel that if ever a JDAM attack is alluded to - in an atmosphere of peace - everyone else in the world will just shrug and forget about it?

If that constitutes Islamabad's world view - then I fear some people are not grasping the full significance of the Post 9-11 world. Perhaps they are somehow taken up by the idea - that somehow Pakistan is as "indispensible" as it was in the "80s". There is a fundamental difference between those times and now.

I wonder if Pillai grasps these things.

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Postby AJay » 23 Aug 2005 21:14

Sunil wrote:Hi Tilak,...
Because you see... not all of us are idiots and some of us actually know that Pakistan's real deterrence is powered by JDAMs and not some chinese supplied modified sex toys.


This same opinion has been expressed by El Presidente Herr General Musharraf quite clearly when he waxed eloquent about unconventional warfare.

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Postby Umrao » 23 Aug 2005 21:27

The most important thing is inspite of the spin the simple fact is unkil has given to Paki bilack Mail.

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Postby kashmal » 23 Aug 2005 22:02

AJay wrote:This same opinion has been expressed by El Presidente Herr General Musharraf quite clearly when he waxed eloquent about unconventional warfare.


Herr Musharraf whose country's army in BD engineered one of the worst genocides in human history was prolly waxing about a different kind of jihad - armies of tribal abduls with the necessary fistfuls of beards, in long shalwars, their scented Baburs aluminium-foiled in imported Reynold, charging across the borders screaming AOA, in heat for the 72 PISStule-types in paradise.

What Sunil seems to be alluding to IMO is far more sinister - Military officers as fluent in Paklish as the Herr herself, smooth shaven, full familied, suave - perhaps "Atta" or Egypt Air pilot-like. Except in this case, in full uniform and with manicured fingers itching to press that launch button . Now that would have been scary (for me personally), but for (i) the joke that passed off as a CM launch video, (ii) the reaction of GOI (iii) what unkil had to say and (iv) reasonable confidence in N^3's nudism theory. IOW to me Herr Emperor aint got no clothes, and his Babur doesn't appear mating capable.

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Postby AJay » 23 Aug 2005 23:40

kashmal wrote:Herr Musharraf whose country's army in BD engineered one of the worst genocides in human history was prolly waxing about a different kind of jihad - armies of tribal abduls


Yes. That was what the general said whne he had to backtrack. his origibal utterances would have included the whole range of possibilities including JDAM (which is "unconevntional" by every definition). Just pointing out that it is possible that Herr General gave his blessings for the JDW interview.

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Postby Dileep » 23 Aug 2005 23:59

Remember: Pukies are led by the official Islamic sanction of "It is OK to lie to, deceive, cheat, rape, torture ........ Kafirs". They don't give the value of the paper and ink to the treaties and conventions.

For them, an F-16, Dongless, Nai, bullock cart, everything is exactly the same and fair game. The only thing that can deter is pure unadultrated fear. What can [b]cause[/] the fear is now debatable.

That is why exactly this little "effort to communicate" is going on. Only limited number of people in positions of power understands the repercussions of this attitude. The guy who talked to JDW obviously does not. Most of the people, including senior TFTA doesn't see that, and that is a problem.

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Postby ramana » 24 Aug 2005 00:16

I want to focus on what made this 'houbara' run? If you refer to the Military scenarios thread Yogi has introduced the concept of the houbara, a bird which hides itself and has to be forced to move in order to come out into the open.

Obviously this C/M has been with the faithful for sometime and was forced into the open. Being Indo specific, due to its range until it gets placed on subs, it appears that something has spooked them and has made them bring it into the open. It could be anything that the West or India did or did not do. The last time the 'houbara' ran was at Chagai.

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Postby Manne » 24 Aug 2005 00:23

Bush-MMS pact?
Changing India-US relations?
The fact that India decided to get active about UNSC?

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Postby AJay » 24 Aug 2005 00:29

ramana wrote:Being Indo specific, due to its range until it gets placed on subs, it appears that something has spooked them and has made them bring it into the open. It could be anything that the West or India did or did not do.


Ramana

Interesting. One possibility that comes to mind is the civvy nuclear power coopeartion between India and US. This could enable India to develop their own long range subs and carriers. For example, Nimitz is powered by two nuclear reactors. Is it a message to India from US with Pakistan as a proxy that if India is thinking of using the civvy nuclear technology to power either subs or carriers then US can essentially limit the power projection through CMs in the hands of Pakistanis? Could that be the reason that US is shrugging off the test? Of course, it could be Chinese as well who would have sent the message that Indian nuclear powered subs and carriers are not safe due to their cats paw in the Arabian Sea.

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Postby Dileep » 24 Aug 2005 00:52

Well, I would pose the "why and why now" question to Syed Yusuf, pillai and other Paklurks.

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Postby Sunil » 24 Aug 2005 01:31

It could be that the unnamed official is an idiot - it would not be surprising that such an idiot would find himself in a position of power - I hear rumors that the promotion policy for flag officers has been modified considerably to promote loyal - as opposed to capable subordinates. The alternative is that whoever said that was no idiot - and was speaking for another faction of within the PA. If that is the case then we have to start asking very uncomfortable questions.

AJay,

Indo-US cooperation in the nuclear sector is limited to civilian applications alone. There are number of things the US is doing to ensure that there is no cross-over - for example the segregation of military and civilian nuclear facilities. India already has the technology for a sea-capable nuclear power plant - a Nimitz type carrier is not cost effective in the Indian scenario.

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Postby Prem » 24 Aug 2005 02:12

AJay wrote:
ramana wrote:Being Indo specific, due to its range until it gets placed on subs, it appears that something has spooked them and has made them bring it into the open. It could be anything that the West or India did or did not do.


Ramana

Interesting. One possibility that comes to mind is the civvy nuclear power coopeartion between India and US. This could enable India to develop their own long range subs and carriers. For example, Nimitz is powered by two nuclear reactors. Is it a message to India from US with Pakistan as a proxy that if India is thinking of using the civvy nuclear technology to power either subs or carriers then US can essentially limit the power projection through CMs in the hands of Pakistanis? Could that be the reason that US is shrugging off the test? Of course, it could be Chinese as well who would have sent the message that Indian nuclear powered subs and carriers are not safe due to their cats paw in the Arabian Sea.



Dragon and TSp has very short window to drag India down. Barber dont serve Uncle's interest in short or long term, so it has to be the big lizzard. I believe we should be ready for some more "brilliant" surprises in next 2 years as all the cards will be shown in open. PRC will do all to put hyphen back in India-Pakistan instead of India-China (which is becoming popular nowadays) Its all about economy. Guys Russian , US and all others will love to make $$` out of Indian BMD. The Indian Buddha is silent and watching this with amusement. The correct response should be fast additions of strategic measures adopted for Big Lizzard and Uncle might has just winked for the very same thus spooking Peking and the Pet.

Now Pillai , like typical Tspians wants to limit the damage to TSP and India onlee. He or TSPians'Masters dont want to contemplate on the wider implications of Nuke conflcit and threats. Tsp hopes to sacrifice for Ummah and earn 72s by taking down billions kaffirs with them. Indian has to make sure ,if push comes to shove, Everyone of TSP friend master and supporter will have equal opertunity for earning 72s and no one is left behind. If Barber saga has an iota of truth and Pukes get excited for Mating then Indians will have very short notice and will be compelled to initiate the Agni Pariksha for Pukes. I guess the question Sunil is asking is does Pukes understand and know this . The Barber might be the first step on the escalatory ladder leading to unwanted consequences very fast and very unlike the past events of Puke brilliance. Pakjabis has to spit this out in public or swallow this in private .

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Postby Rangudu » 24 Aug 2005 03:00


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Postby AJay » 24 Aug 2005 03:13

The last line from K(olnel)Hali's article posted above

It would be best for India to agree to include cruise-missile tests in the advance-warning agreement rather than go further berserk in 'keeping up with the Joneses'.


Is this it, then? Pakistan wants CM tests to be brought under the agreement? As simple as that? Why can't they just ask rather than go about it in a round-about way and risk their assets getting arrested at Krachi port?

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Postby Dileep » 24 Aug 2005 03:13

Allright, so we got the reply from Capt. SM Hali. Now what remains is the proof of the termination of the flight from Syed Yusuf.

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Postby Anoop » 24 Aug 2005 03:23

AJay wrote:The last line from K(olnel)Hali's article posted above

It would be best for India to agree to include cruise-missile tests in the advance-warning agreement rather than go further berserk in 'keeping up with the Joneses'.


Pakistan wants CM tests to be brought under the agreement? As simple as that? Why can't they just ask ..?


Actually, it's not just that, AJay. By throwing down this offer, they seek to legitimize their missile "test" in the same vein as Brahmos'. The difference is that India does not claim that Brahmos is a nuclear tipped missile and India is not a rogue proliferator and terrorist state like Pakistan is. Thus, what is good for the goose is not good for the gander.

I'm beginning to see the wisdom of Sunil's persistence. Capt. Hali has a lot more backtracking to do. Watch the Nation's pages....

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Postby Sunil » 24 Aug 2005 03:27

Hi,

Firstly I would like to thank Capt. Hali for his response.

I will post on the issue later in the day.

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Postby Sam CS » 24 Aug 2005 03:37

Sunil wrote:Hi,

Firstly I would like to thank Capt. Hali for his response.

I will post on the issue later in the day.


Precisely what was his response, except that he admits he is still doing a Big Brother on us?

The theme of his entire article seems aimed at his own people saying "Look how everyone - West and Indians - are running scared at our latest display of manhood".

Is that it?

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Postby Sunil » 24 Aug 2005 03:48

Hi,

Somethings that came to mind right now. I will respond to posers on this thread in detail later.

For now I request that all forum discussion on the JDAM threat issue be stopped until my next post on this thread.

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Postby kashmal » 24 Aug 2005 03:53

Dileep wrote:Allright, so we got the reply from Capt. SM Hali. Now what remains is the proof of the termination of the flight from Syed Yusuf.


My bet is that this ain't going to happen. At least for the claimed Barber test. Taking myself back to Gulf War Episode I, the initial shock, awe and fear were due to the images of the projectiles *hitting* their targets right at the middle of the crosshairs with spectacular explosion. Not because of any tail booster falling off, or mini wings appearing miraculously in midflight.

If Pakis really had credible demonstration of a successful CM hit on a target, that's the first (and perhaps the only one) thing they would have televised in endless tape loops 24x7.

A grainy video of a missile launch cutting mid-flight into a flash animation and that too stops short of making even the pixels simulating a consummated explosion wouldn't serve any purpose would it?

If the intent was to incite fear/pride/reassurance/coercion/whatever, why the hurry to publicize the "test"? Anyway since "no one" knew about this test, TSP could have waited a few days at least to mock up a slightly more fear-inspiring video. Pakis can at least make smoke and mirrors right? Why didn't they? What was their big hurry?

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Postby A_Gupta » 24 Aug 2005 04:11

Sunil wrote:Continuing on:

Wow... Did they want to provoke America also?


Unlikely, well atleast not directly, I suspect that the US went along with this little drama because they felt that a secure leadership in Islamabad was preferable to an insecure one.


From today's NYT:

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/23/inter ... elect.html

International officials credit the country's American-backed military ruler, President Pervez Musharraf, with putting the nazim program into operation and call it a success. But they accuse General Musharraf and the Bush administration of taking a "yes-no" position on broader democratic measures. They say the United States quietly opposes any step that could weaken General Musharraf's ability to crack down on militancy by force.

"If it happens to destabilize Pakistan, forget it," said one official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he feared retaliation. "That's the message of the neo-cons: 'It's security, not development, stupid.' "

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Postby Amitabh » 24 Aug 2005 04:17

But if Pakistan were to deploy cruise missiles, however, India would have to spend considerable amounts of money to set up air defences along its entire border to defend against them.


Much water has flowed down the Baburi river, but...

Apart from the political incentives to test (and I agree with Sunil here), this quote from the WashTimes (via Hali's article) gives a simple conventional incentive for a Pak cruise missile. Someone in the original thread pointed out the connection with India's LLTR purchase. If your strike fighters can't guarantee getting to heavily defended targets, you make up the difference with cruise missiles, particulary if you opponent has a problem with AD coverage. And since they plan to use cruise missiles in the conventional role, they can't nuclearise them otherwise India will assume the worst every time a Babur crosses over on its way to a building or airfield. So I will guess that even the sublaunched version if it emerges will be conventional. Because if it is nuclearlised it immediately becomes useless as a conventional weapon.

Of course this has to be credibly communicated to India/US. And the lack of a public response could be because this has somehow been communicated. Why have nuclear cruise missiles if there is a second-strike ballistic capability in place that can cover much of India? And as many have pointed out, it's no point putting n-warheads on a slow moving cruise missile, and the US for instance withdrew its nuclear Tomahawks from service many years ago.

If we get credible/persistent reports of nuclearization, then my argument will be proven wrong. But I expect this not to be the case. Unless I have missed an official Pakistani statement regarding this.

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Postby AJay » 24 Aug 2005 04:25

Anoop

I was incredulous.

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Postby TSJones » 24 Aug 2005 04:53


'keeping up with the Joneses'


Damn, that sumb**** take a shot at me?

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Postby enqyoobOLD » 24 Aug 2005 05:01

Take it easy, TSJ. Paki Kolnels write in quaint cliches to show that they are "English Ejjikated". This is why we coined the term "RAPE" : Rabid Anglophile Pakistani Elite".

The "-phile" part was before they BakPak-ed Londonabad.

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Postby enqyoobOLD » 24 Aug 2005 05:44

Sunil: Now LOOK what u have done:

http://www.nation.com.pk/daily/aug-2005/24/columns4.php

The most malicious conclusions that have been drawn are firstly that Pakistan has begged, borrowed or stolen a Cruise Missile System. Secondly that Pakistan is an irresponsible state, in which jihadis can dominate and get their finger on the launch button of nuclear weapons. ...

It is sheer malice to paint doomsday scenarios that Pakistani weapons are being handled by irresponsible fanatics and the world is at the threshold of destruction. Those at the helm of our strategic affairs have given the United Nations, IAEA, and the Occident ample assurance of the viability and reliability of our Command and control systems.


Tsk, tsk.. u should be ashamed of urself, sunil! Trying to spread malicious rumors! [/quote]

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Postby Harpal_Bector » 24 Aug 2005 05:51

Public talk about atomic weapons in the hands of fanatics should stop. It is irresponsible and not in India's interests.

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Postby Rudradev » 24 Aug 2005 06:09

:shock:

You mean we should instead pretend that the various "missiles" and "warheads" Pakistan claims to have are actually a functional threat?

Look boss. Anybody willing to do the right kind of favours in exchange, can acquire and flash around a Chinese .22 automatic and a clip full of North Korean .357 hollow points. The only people who will be impressed are the unwashed rabble of the Ummah whose education is limited to Madrassa maths (.22 + .357 = .786, therefore Allah will find a way!)

The only nuclear threat from Pakistan-- to anyone-- comes from terrorists smuggling atomic weapons into our country by bullock cart. Period. The civilized world cannot, and does not, permit the slimmest chance of anything more.

So if you're upset about "public talk about atomic weapons in the hands of fanatics", it's all the pundits and media outlets... the Brookingses, the Boltons, the Bollocking of Atomic Scientists etc. whom you should chastise.

They are the ones pretending out loud that the fanatic terrorist state of Pakistan actually possesses anything resembling a true missile-based nuclear deterrent.

BTW, Sunil: thanks for your response, it very much cleared things up. And I, too, am beginning to see the point of your persistence!

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Postby Anoop » 24 Aug 2005 07:03

I wish Mr. Bector would elaborate as much as is possible.

Rudradev, although he has been absent a long while from the forum, there is enough in this past postings to suggest that his words are very well considered and well worth listening to. I'm not suggesting blind obedience, merely urging caution against dismissing his point of view.

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Postby shiv » 24 Aug 2005 07:04

Harpal - the problem is "Public talk" cannot be stopped.

As part of my own research for my ongoing saga to write up something I have at least one article that quotes a senior aide in the Paki government who is wistful and pessimistic about the subcontinent and wishes that Indian could be nuked into oblivion. I will locate that article if you wish. He has no doubt said that in a "rhetorical fashion" and perhaps not as a threat - but it has been said.

Secondly, conventional arms - tanks and fighter planes and subs have been in the hands of people who butchered hundreds of thousands of Bangladeshis. The leaders responsible for this retired and died peacefully and were never questioned, leave alone broght to justice. In my dictionary - the mindset and orgainization responsibe for that were "fanatics". Those same fanatics now have nuclear arms. Why the hell should anyone not say that fanatics in Pakistan have nuclear arms?

I have a personal take on the issue of Islamic fanaticism and Pakistan. I think it is wrong to pretend that the current leadership is not fanatical and that there is some more fanatical person or people underneath who are trying to wrest control of the nukes. The current leadership have enough mad people. A short few years ago Gohar Ayub was openly threatening to nuke Indian cities. It is easy for the Pakistani establishment to allow someone to make a threat and then dismiss the threat as the rant of a person who should not be taken seriously - but why should we not take him seriously?

Pakistan is a state full of fanatics and is nuclear armed. Their method of negotiation is by blackmail. SM Hali's article above is a typical shizophrenic Pakistan statement. Pakistan reserves the right to be as fanatical as it likes - but it is India that has to be rational.

Under the circumstances - India can speak to Pakistan better if we are irrational. In fact Pakistan is being let off lightly on this forum by people laughing at their ding dong cruise missile. If we took that missile seriously then we would be readying a nuclear response. And while it is stated publicly that the Indian warning and control systems are not as good and sophisticated as the Pakistani ones - it must be recalled that their killing power is as good as any. So if the Pakistani establishment chooses to threaten and play with India - they are choosing to threaten and play with a state whose reaction cannot be predicted and a state that cannot be "controlled".

If rationality and agreements are desired from India, rationality has to come first from Pakistan. There has to be a loss of honor and acceptance from Pakistan that they have to talk because they are weaker rather than trying to "maintain parity" or claim superiority and imagine that the can browbeat India into doing the delusional things the Pakistan establishment want.

Pakistan wants to show that it is equal or stronger than India because it shames them (and they like to say it shames Islam) and their honor is lost. Well that is really tough. They will have to swallow and accept that shame - because India is not going to be blackmailed into giving Pakistanis any honor or dignity under duress. Honor for Pakistan means honor in agreements and relations and not threats of nuclear war.

"Pakistani hathiyar sey dartey nahin. Woh hamey maarengey to hum bhi usey maarengey"

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Postby kgoan » 24 Aug 2005 07:46

That's what I thought when I saw that Jones line and given the good captain Halis careful reading of the forum and the Pakistani propensity to bite the hand that feeds them. Bloody cheek or what, was my first response.

OTOH, N's explanantion is probably the correct one. I hope to gawd it is - if Hali is takin' potshot at TSJ, I'm gonna have a strong pavlovian response to be nice to TSJ :shock:

However will I resist that? :eek:

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Postby kgoan » 24 Aug 2005 07:57

I could be wrong, but if I understand correctly, I think Harpalji's view is related to our public and the pressure on our netas.

The janata may never have thought about a pakk jihadi with a nuke. If that idea become prevalent in the public, it could set up uncontrollable pressures on GoI to act in diffreent ways.

Recall the response to the hijacking? What if a city was being held hostage instead?

And given some of the outright traitors in our media, what do folk think they couldn't invent an entirely fake scare - got from BR of jihadis with nukes - and cause untold mayhem.

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Postby shiv » 24 Aug 2005 08:24

I find this statement particualrly interesting:

http://nation.com.pk/daily/aug-2005/24/columns4.php
yet it takes dictatorial tones, e.g. "They (Pakistan) really must clarify that they have no intention of mating warheads to missiles and they must publicly denounce all propaganda about a submarine launched cruise nuclear tipped cruise missile and Pakistan must immediately cease all cruise missile testing." 


Pakistan launches a "cruise missile" and pointedly refers to India by saying that the test was not notified because India thought that only they had a cruise missile and did not want notification included in the agreement. The statement also comes out of Pakistan that this could be an SLCM and nuclear tipped.

What sort of reaction is expected from India? Quivering fear? Capitulation? It almost sounds like Ayub Khan saying "The smell of gunpowder will bring them to their senses" or "A sharp blow dealt at the right time and place will send the Hindu running"

And the response that is heard is not what this Paki wanted and he whines that the response is dictatorial. There is a delusion of grandeur here. "I am great. I have nuke tipped SLCM. And saala - these Indian buggers! What do they do? They are being dictatorial when they should be sh1tting in their dhotis. They should come to their senses, accept Pakistans equality and greatness. They should accept the reality of Pakistan"

This typical Pakispeak. "Accepting the reality of Pakistan" does not mean accepting Pakistan as the rabid and decrepit state it is, but accepting Pakistan as a great nation that is leading this world. In other words not only do we have to accept the presence of this ragged beggar (which we have repeatedly stated that we do accept this) - but we have to lick his backside as well.

Note that my statement can be read as a caste Hindu being contemptuous of the great Islamic nation, requiring a fighting response from the Mughal. That perception is Pakistan's real problem. They have never grown beyond that.

Boss - respect will not come from threats or war. Respect does not come even from pretending to be the most faithful either to the Quran or to China or to America.

Pakistanis have to swallow their pride and look at themselves as Indians do unashamedly and recognise the rotting bullsh1t that eats them internally. Cruise missiles and idle chit-chat in English media will not help.

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Postby Rudradev » 24 Aug 2005 09:56

Anoop wrote:I wish Mr. Bector would elaborate as much as is possible.

Rudradev, although he has been absent a long while from the forum, there is enough in this past postings to suggest that his words are very well considered and well worth listening to. I'm not suggesting blind obedience, merely urging caution against dismissing his point of view.


Then you surely must agree, Mr. Bector needs to come up with more than a peremptory one-liner. That hardly constitutes a point of view.

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Postby Rudradev » 24 Aug 2005 10:57

kgoan wrote:I could be wrong, but if I understand correctly, I think Harpalji's view is related to our public and the pressure on our netas.

The janata may never have thought about a pakk jihadi with a nuke. If that idea become prevalent in the public, it could set up uncontrollable pressures on GoI to act in diffreent ways.

Recall the response to the hijacking? What if a city was being held hostage instead?

And given some of the outright traitors in our media, what do folk think they couldn't invent an entirely fake scare - got from BR of jihadis with nukes - and cause untold mayhem.


Even on these grounds, I would disagree.

If the pak jihadi with a nuke is a real possibility-- and we on BR have not arrived at the idea that it exists, out of paranoid delusion-- then this idea needs to be considered and examined by the people of India as a matter of responsible public discourse.

Consider this: before 9-11, the vast majority of Americans lived blissfully unaware that such a thing as jihadi terrorism even existed. After 9-11, the GOTUS has spared no effort in repeatedly reminding its people that the terrorists are still out there, that another attack on the same scale is very much a possibility, and even publicly exploring scenarios for nuclear, biological or chemical weapons attacks by terrorists.

On the face of it, "making one's polity feel insecure" seems a counterintuitive tack for a democratic government to take. But on closer examination, it is the only sound thing to do. After the initial shock and fear have subsided, a rational understanding of what can be expected remains firmly embedded in the public consciousness as a result; as also, a sense of security from knowing that government plans exist to respond to this contingency in the short and long term. Face it... there is simply no other way for a democracy to steel its collective political will for the necessary action, than by empowering its people with the necessary knowledge.

On the subject of the IC 814 hijacking: do we think the Indian public would have responded the same way, if the hijacking had occurred after 9-11? Or within a month or two of some such atrocity as the Parliament Attack or the '93 Mumbai blasts? Or during, instead of several months after Kargil?

The complete lack of political will to handle the situation derived from many factors. Chief among these was complete psychological unpreparedness, on a mass scale, to deal with the eventuality.

For one thing, there was the deer in the headlights at the very top for all to see... the GOI was resting on its Kargil laurels, Jaswant Singh was going out of his way to portray India as a peace-loving and "responsible" power for Strobe Talbott's benefit, and Vajpayee, for all his virtues, was already planning to get the Lahore bus back on track with one eye on the Nobel Peace Prize. None of them expected an IC-814 situation. When it happened, they themselves were all too plainly uncertain how to respond.

The general public, largely insulated from the reality of terrorism outside J&K, was similarly basking in the triumphalism of Kargil's aftermath. It was a time of promised prosperity, the signs of which were already beginning to show up in accelerated economic growth. The government had been spending all its PR energy getting the Indian people to feel good about themselves. Subconsciously, many Indians must have believed that the Pakis would lay still and lick their wounds for a few years as after the '71 war. They, too, had no clue what breed of swine we were dealing with this time.

So when IC 814 was hijacked the prevailing mood was one of shock, fear and chiefly confusion. Add to this the generous infusions of panic-mongering from the traitor media, and nobody the hell knew what to do. The only voices that anyone could make sense of or relate to on at least a humanitarian level, were the voices of the hijack victims' relatives camped outside 7 Race Course Road. So of course, their voices won the day... as did the terrorists.

The current situation... where the majority of the Indian people are blissfully ignorant of a JDAM scenario... echoes December 1999 very closely. It is very, very bad for 20-30 people on BR to talk about it while everybody else has no clue. It indicates that we are doomed to face the same sort of panic and indecision when faced with JDAM blackmail as during the IC 814 hijacking... except on a much larger scale.

To have the news leak to the public in an uncontrolled manner, in the form of rumours and scaremongering, might be even worse.

It is therefore incumbent on the GOI, or its interlocutors, to officially broach the subject before the public eye, examine it in depth, explain clearly all the contingencies, preventative measures and planned responses in place.

Yes, they will be letting themselves in for criticism and slander from peaceniks and candle-kissers. Yes, they will be laying themselves open for a lot of destructive flak if such JDAM blackmail actually comes to pass even after they have admitted to the public that it is on their minds and they're trying to stop it.

But it is the only right thing to do by the Indian janata. It will convey a certain reassurance to the people once the initial alarm has worn off-- which won't be long if it is handled properly. And it will prepare the public for the eventuality... leaving no doubt in their minds as to what the response, or means of pre-emption, can and must be.

I can envision other arguments about the hits Indian economy is likely to take if such news comes out... from the same quarters who pressed the GOI on Foggy Bottom's behalf during Parakram.

Again, better that it is confronted on a controlled, official level than that it take everyone by surprise. The latter case would lead to paralyzing fear. The former... only to a sense of preparedness, which never hurt any mature and self-confident democracy. The United States' period of greatest prosperity, after all, came in the 1950s... when bomb-shelters were dug in backyards, and the shadow of Soviet nuclear missiles loomed larger than ever.
Last edited by Rudradev on 24 Aug 2005 11:08, edited 2 times in total.

Dileep
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Postby Dileep » 24 Aug 2005 11:00

My Dear Capt(r) Hali, we are not surprised that you couldn't distinguish between utter contempt and shell shock. Your compatriot Pillai has given a good example of the farmer and elephant already.

Only a bunch of people who could believe that blowing up humans will get 72 houries in the afterlife, could also believe that your country can develop a terrain hugging, centimetre accurate, nuclear capable cruise missile, do one test, and start serial production. Your country didn't happen yesterday. The world knows what you can and can not do. You can't simply claim big things and expect other people to believe it, even with bagloads of salt.

No, we are not shocked, we are not scared. The feeling we have towards your show off is something like when we see the stray street dog barking at you.

Yes, we said you begged, borrowed and stolen, because that is the only way you could get even the empty shell or scaled model of the rocket. I wouldn't blame you for getting upset on that allegation, because you yourself very well know that it is true.

Now, I repeat the challenge. Show us the terminal stage of the flight. I know you can't, because there was no termination. If you do, and if we could verify that it is not a fake, I shall retract my position that the test did not happen.

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Postby Umrao » 24 Aug 2005 11:05

kgoan wrote:I could be wrong, but if I understand correctly, I think Harpalji's view is related to our public and the pressure on our netas.

The janata may never have thought about a pakk jihadi with a nuke. If that idea become prevalent in the public, it could set up uncontrollable pressures on GoI to act in diffreent ways.

Recall the response to the hijacking? What if a city was being held hostage instead?

And given some of the outright traitors in our media, what do folk think they couldn't invent an entirely fake scare - got from BR of jihadis with nukes - and cause untold mayhem.



That is what I eluded to in the first thread of this series, that the CMG guys would be busy with chai biscoot and the likes of Narayan muthy asking GOI to stand down.
in response R Guru chided me in no uncertain terms.. :-?

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Postby shiv » 24 Aug 2005 11:34

Dileep wrote:Now, I repeat the challenge. Show us the terminal stage of the flight. I know you can't, because there was no termination. If you do, and if we could verify that it is not a fake, I shall retract my position that the test did not happen.


You will have to eat your words because any Packee can plagiarise a video clip of something hitting a target and exploding and presenting it on PTV as "Barbur in terminal death throes"

People who are criminals in India and other countries roam free as heroes in Pakistan. Dawood Ibrahim, Masood Azhar and Omar Shaikh are all alive and well in Pakistan - hiding behind thinly veiled excuses. Pakistan essentially supported "third-party" blackmailers when IC 814 was hijacked - so a JDAM blackmail is a possibility that we must not dismiss.

Pakistan operates on Blackmail and giving in to blackmail improves their self image and makes them feel that they are way up there in the "comity of nations" and that others are running scared. The nation, initially run by dysfunctional people, is now populated by millions who have been indoctrinated to be equallly dysfunctional.

I think Harpal Bector should expand on the meaning of his cautionary words.

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Postby daulat » 24 Aug 2005 12:52

warhead guru's - does TSP have a N-warhead small enough to fit a cruise missile? Else is babur full sized and therefore likely to be slow? Could it be more like a F6 retooled? this is ofcourse discounting those indigenous warheads that come with a Mandarin Operating Manual...

looks like babur is a signal, unless ofcourse its operating manual is also in Mandarin


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