Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 31 Dec 2012 01:07

The only types of Pagaliban are perhaps bad and worse.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 01 Jan 2013 13:31

Moving Forward to Go Back - Chinmaya R Gharekhan, The Hindu
Excerpts

It is obvious that this flurry of activity has only one, perfectly understandable objective from the American and the West’s perspective: to provide a respectable screen behind which to implement the withdrawal from Afghanistan. As for Hamid Karzai, he too would wish to leave behind some legacy whereby there will be at least an agreement on paper which, hopefully, will avoid the country’s descent into chaos which many analysts anticipate post-2014.

Significant

The announcement of the Paris talks signifies several things. Firstly, it means that the U.S. and NATO have given up, once and for all, the objective of defeating the Taliban. Secondly, there is more than a tacit admission that the Afghan National Security Force will be incapable of ensuring security in the country post-2014,considering that only one out of 23 Afghan brigades is considered capable of operating on its own. The ‘green on blue’ attacks have also played their part in this. Thirdly, it proves that the British are still far ahead of the Americans in understanding the region. The U.K. called for co-opting the Taliban in the government years before even Mr. Karzai did, as the only way out for the country.

Fourthly, and importantly, it must be borne in mind that the West, especially the Americans, never had any problem with the Taliban. It was the treatment of women that made the then U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright anti-Taliban. The forceful action after 9/11 was aimed at al-Qaeda, not the Taliban. Had the Taliban agreed to cut ties with al-Qaeda then, it would still be ruling in Kabul. The West by and large would have nothing to worry as and when, not if, the Taliban obtains a share in the government. The roadmap explicitly states that the Taliban will be included not only in the state power structure but will also be given non-elective positions at different levels. This is a clear reference to governorships in provinces such as Paktia, Paktita and Khost.

India should watch these developments most warily. There is no reason for us to rejoice at the possibility of the Taliban becoming a part of the government. We did support the reconciliation process some time ago, but it was probably more theoretical at that time when the three ‘red lines’ were still in place, namely, respecting the constitution, renunciation of violence and severing ties with al-Qaeda. These red lines have since been given up and are now projected as objectives to be considered at the end of the process rather than as preconditions for talks. It is one thing to support the efforts to achieve stability in Afghanistan and another to welcome an arrangement which will guarantee the Taliban a share in power with all the negative consequences that might follow for us.

Pakistan, the winner

Pakistan has emerged the clear winner. We should have no illusion. Mr. Karzai has decided to throw in his lot with Pakistan, his ‘brother’. Pakistan, for all its protestations of not wanting the Taliban returning to power in Kabul, has been given the pride of place in Mr. Karzai’s roadmap which confers key role on Islamabad in the whole process. Pakistan has succeeded in convincing its western interlocutors that there is a paradigm shift in the political mindset in the country. Once the Taliban manages to get a share of power in Kabul, it will eventually endeavour to grab total power. Since it will remain the most cohesive force, ideologically, politically and militarily, it would be imprudent to exclude this possibility. In other words, the Taliban might well achieve around a conference table what it failed to achieve in the battlefield.

It is time we go slow on pouring in money into Afghanistan. In this arrangement, China is going to be benefitted too through its friend, Pakistan. China also had a hand in Afghanistan during the mujahideen days.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 01 Jan 2013 17:06

There is more internal bloodshed in store for Afghanistan, if above happens. There is also more in store for Pakistan. The Durand Line will be pushed eastwards. And allah help Kraachi. Remember this was called on BR in the coming years.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 01 Jan 2013 17:36

JEM, there certainly is going to be bloodshed in Afghanistan after 2014. It will be a throw back to the to the early years of the 1990s until the Taliban arrived on the scene. Unfortunately, Ahmed Shah Massoud is no longer on the scene.

I am doubtful of Allah's help. It has never been so for Pakistan.

Having lost faith in Allah's help, the TSPA is turning to the next best option, the 'bad Taliban'. But, the 'bad Taliban' have said clearly in the latest video that they, 'good Taliban' and Al Qaeda were all one and the same. So, TSPA's Faustian bargain, like all its tactical brilliance before, is going to land TSP in greater mess. The region is in for massive convulsions.

It will be the third time that the US screwed up this region (first Pakistan, then Afghanistan and now Af-Pak) and this time, India has to be extremely vigilant. Some of the military acquisitions may actually end up being tested.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 01 Jan 2013 18:36

In spite of decades of aid to pakis, there seems to be a huge problems in Afghanistan with issues of consensus candidates, ex-baki army leading talibarbarian attacks and pakis emerging as clear benefactors. All this is overlooked by first world civilized powers in NATO who are in Afghanistan actually with recognition of Afghan Govt.

India should extend support to the Govt. of Afghanistan in policy as well as in substance in multifaceted ways. Talibarbarians, lead by ex-paki army, are clearly hostile against India under arbitrary excuses. It is important to avoid humiliation of dealing with Talibarbarians in any ways, including way of talks with long list of excuses. The defenses against Talibarbarians push everywhere, including Afghanistan, should be to box in and push back and rather be very clear right in earnest at doctrine level.

The tango of Arap leadership of Talibarbarians with silence of first world powers points to Arap covert support regardless of terrorizing of Afghans. It is important for India to reduce any dependence on Arap oil lest it creates hindrance in approach and humiliation to not ignore Talibarbarians having their say against interests of Afghans. NATO in Afghan could also provide selective cover to Talibarbarians as during Mujahid times to unbalance non-Talibarbarian forces under pressure from paki army.

It might look novel but it is perhaps important to form mountain bases in Afghanistan along with Russia, like forts that provide natural protection with airstrips for bombing and air superiority, for integrated defense forces of the current Afghan Govt and earlier Northen Allliance remnants that would pummel talibarbarians say every week or day as convinient. This is very important because integrated defense forces can learn a lot setting up such bases in Afghanistan while Talibarbarians would not be able to hide since selective cover of NATO would be gone.

Virendra · Post by **Virendra** » 01 Jan 2013 19:50

It will be a rocky ride that is for sure. We have no choice except standing by closely to our allies in Afghanistan.
We must train and arm them but not look like a colonizing force, because by that time the pukis would be screaming jihaad loudly, to instigate the pashtuns that India has sided with Uzbeks, Tajiks.
About the durand line, I don't think there will be much change on ground but yes big or small skirmishes would be frequent.
Right now Afghanistan is half conscious on an IV feed. After 2014 it will land on the ground zero of reality and would start coming to terms with its environment but .. in its own way.
More than what would happen to Indian interests, I am better convinced that there is almost no chance that Afghanistan and Pakistan wouldn't spar.
It is bound to happen.

Regards,
Virendra

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 01 Jan 2013 20:09

Quite true sires. I believe there is agreement that as SS put it

there will be "massive convulsions" in the region. Shaheed Ahmed Shah is not there but I'm fairly hopeful. The Panjsheris and other Tajiks will certainly rally behind anything linked to him, a portrait, a poem or a pika... The Uzbeks no doubt have a few redoubtable commanders of their own still in play - and this time around, it won't just be the Indians and Russians and Iranians supporting this bunch, but the Americans can be expected to do their part as well. If the Talibs were not willing to let the Americans rest in peace during their foray, rest assured the Amirkhans will not let the Talibs sit still either. And they have their contacts now that are far wider and far more intelligence-backed than anything they had in 2001. Be sure that, with our sly operations, with the American hammer descending every now and then, the Russians sharing their brutal Chechen experience through the Uzbeks and Tajiks, life is going to be just peachy for the Pakisatans, who have bitten off more than they can chew. And to make matters worse, they will be funded in all this by the most venal of the lot - drug lords, private mad mullahs, some waqf funds, some leather sales, some individual donations, and by the American government which is not unhappy at all to screw its whore just for the sake of violating it now and watching with vicarious pleasure as it wretchedly tries to bite the hand that throws the money on the floor. Yenjoy wonly macha.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 01 Jan 2013 21:21

The problem is there is no difference ideologically between the Taliban and Pakistan Army. You might have some skirmishes here and there but it wont be enough to cause trouble for Pakistan. You will see the minorities and Shias being purged and a couple IED mubaraks in some major cities in it's transformation to a full fledged Islamic State with Punjab as its core. It's not a question of durand line being pushed eastward, its a question of its relevance.

The problem for India is stopping the infection from spreading to its Muslim demographic which will be next to impossible considering the growth rates and concentration levels in many parts of the country. We can't even put a lid on Zakir Naik and Owaisi and put an end to the demographic invasion of the NE by Bangaldeshi muslims and we expect to counter a well financed and equipped proxy war from Taliban + PA. The PA and Taliban will be emboldened after the pullout and the islamist wave will naturally want to push past Pakistan to India. Moreover, the Chinese will not be spectators this time.

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 01 Jan 2013 22:02

Is the thought that the Taleban is the soft underbelly of Pakistan the state, have any takers here?

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 01 Jan 2013 22:16

Afghan National Security Forces- Hiccups Continue

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 01 Jan 2013 23:04

ShauryaT wrote:Is the thought that the Taleban is the soft underbelly of Pakistan the state, have any takers here?

it's probably the TSPA which is the soft underbelly. in a total/all-out war, IA would probably find it relatively easy to crush the TSPA.

the irregular Talibs are more difficult. it will require a completely different strategy. I don't think the Taliban are the soft underbelly.

at the current time, we are in no position to try to take the Taliban head-on. it will require massive force commitments, which means the GoI must spread a wider net and bring in more recruits to the IA. it also means that the GoI needs a clear commitment of destroying the regenerative capabilities of Islam and Jihad.

in short, I conclude that we are in no position to take the Taliban head-on, at the present time.
it will require a fundamental change in the thinking of the "Central" establishment.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 02 Jan 2013 08:27

With U.S. Set to Leave Afghanistan, Echoes of 1989

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 02 Jan 2013 22:36

It was loing ago suggested that AFPAK will become an extended no-man's land, which is ideal for nurturing jihad. Ther will be investments into building more mosques and madrassahs instead of real tools of modernity like hospitals, universities and industries - all of which require greater knowledge and education - and which inturn means a serious threat to the theology. Europeans - especially UK - will turn a blind eye or be forced to help out the Saudi funding of this programme - because of financial and political ties with the ruling Gulf Sunni regimes. Same goes for India.

USA will be busiy licking its wounds and trying to find a new playground for military-economic games.

Its an error to think that Pakistan will be destroyed in the process. We talk in terms of entity models for nations - nation X will do this, nation X will do that. Nations are not single entities. AFG or Pak are similarly a collection of many different entities - each with many different subentities and so on.

If we go to the next level of structural inhomogeneities - we can see that there is a component of AFG and of PAK that gel together - that is the jihadi component of TSPA and the jihadi component of AFG. The common matrix is jihad, hatred of the non-Muslim, and an imperialist urge to expand territorially and enslave populations. This is the bit we should be thinking about.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Jan 2013 22:43

TSPA is the soft underbelly of Af-Pak for its a pig fed on pork (aid) from UK and then US.

TTP, Pakiban and AlQ will take over TSPA. There is no fight left in that pig. when push comes to shove the TSPA rank and file will join up with the jihadis. Its only the hope of pork (aid) from US that keep them in uniform.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 03 Jan 2013 08:13

Another Vietnam for the US: Taliban
I agree. The Talibani & Pakistani celebrations have started and why not ?

The Taliban on Wednesday likened the planned withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan to the pullout from Vietnam, calling it a ‘declare victory and run’ strategy.

A statement from the militant group said the ongoing transfer of security operations from U.S. troops to Afghan forces was merely a retreat similar to the withdrawal from South Vietnam prior to the Communist victory there in 1975.

“They want to flee from Afghanistan just as they turned tail and ran from Vietnam,” said the Taliban statement. “When America faced utter destruction in Vietnam, they came up with the formula ‘declare victory and run’ and want to utilise the formula of ‘transfer security and run’ here in Afghanistan.”

Coalition leaders say that Afghans now take on about 75 per cent of military responsibilities, though the U.S. is in talks over leaving a small force behind after 2014.

“To sum up 2012 in one sentence it would be ‘The beginning of the invaders scamper’,” the Taliban said.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 03 Jan 2013 08:31

+1 Bji.

India cannot do anything other than impotantly dreaming for x/y/z to come and save it's dhimmi ass.

To solve Af-Pak and south-Asia problem, Bharat has to solve India problem first.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 03 Jan 2013 08:37

Now, it is Gulbuddin Hekmatyar's turn to torment and tease the Westerners. Link

Hekmatyar said that western forces in Afghanistan were “tired of fighting” and were “left with no option except withdrawal”.

He was particularly scathing of Britain, describing its troops as “lackeys of the Americans”, and calling Prince Harry, currently serving as a helicopter pilot in Helmand province, a “jackal”.

“The British prince comes to Afghanistan to kill innocent Afghans while he is drunk. He wants to hunt down Mujahideen with his helicopter rockets without any shame. But he does not understand this simple fact that the hunting of Afghan lions and eagles is not that easy! Jackals cannot hunt lions,” he said.

Samudragupta · Post by **Samudragupta** » 03 Jan 2013 10:39

The erasure of Durrand Line and the correponding of Jihadisation from Hindukush to Punjab takes us back to the Gaznavi only this time eqquiped with nukes.....For India its more an opportunity than threats when the unfinished buisness on 14th Jan 1761 can be completed...the increase of the monetary interactions between the gulf and the Indian elites only points to the general dilemma facing the Gulf elites about the trajectory that India is going to take on this opportunity head on....

wig · Post by **wig** » 03 Jan 2013 12:12

ahmed rashid's interview in the german newsmagazine spiegel

http://www.spiegel.de/international/wor ... 74034.html

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 03 Jan 2013 16:48

We need to understand one thing in AfPak! No country or party can really build anything there of some durability! All one can do is to upset the plans of others to build something!

So India is wasting her breath, trying to build something durable in Afghanistan. We should be concentrating rather on upsetting Pakistan's plans of imposing a regime in Afghanistan beholden and subordinate to Pakistan dictum. That we can do with ease!

We can create a bigger problem for Pakistan in AfPak, than what Pakistan has ever been able to create for other countries, for other groups.

We need to concentrate on that! Only once the orks in Pakistan have been crushed, can one build anything in the region. So development in AfPak would have to wait till Pakistan is destroyed!

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 03 Jan 2013 16:58

Is India again going to face a 1989 situation with NF+LF lameduck governments, Jihadis in search of new enemies, empty coffers of GOI? This time though the media is even more compromised, so no one to talk about real issues.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 03 Jan 2013 22:53

Bji and RamaY, I beg to disagree. The Paki nuke tests in 1998 were the culimination of the long covert supprot for TSP nuclearization aided by PRC and abetted by US. The overt nuclearization emboldened the TSPA to carry out Kargil intrusion with armed soldiers portrayed as irregular terrorists. The Indian response to Kargil and the subsequent defeat of the TSPA led to deep frustration in Pakilands and the alphabet groups in and out of their government. This directly led to the 9/11 attack. US thinks its only one group did it but doesn't understand its the environment in TSP that sustains such dregs.

After the Lok Sabha attack on 12/13/2001, Operation Parakram was launched for a no-war war. What it did was to create a firewall or breaker so to say against jihadi terrorism wave that got reflected back into TSP. We are seeing the effects of that action by India. The West will soon regret not having allowed India to clean up Pak in 2001 itself while they were on the ascendent in Afghanistan. Now its too late.

Anyway the point is India has to be firm to not allow the mess into India and let the Pakis sort it out themselves.

I see the end point as a new Pakiban sultanate emerging from the morass.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 03 Jan 2013 23:01

ramana wrote:
Anyway the point is India has to be firm to not allow the mess into India and let the Pakis sort it out themselves.

I see the end point as a new Pakiban sultanate emerging from the morass.

Sultanate cannot sustain in the modern world. Pak is in a no mans land and it will be held by the army alone.
Once the P Army is limited in resource and capability the country will also be limited in its capacity to do damage to the neighborhood. We can see the signs of the limit of the capability of Pakistan army and other institutions

Modern army cannot give the same sultanate islamic fervor and it is bound by international contraints

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 03 Jan 2013 23:02

All sultanates are army states.

Virendra · Post by **Virendra** » 04 Jan 2013 18:22

When the Americans and NATO would have pulled out, how much reduction in pig aid can we foresee?
The dependency would be reduced right?
But wouldn't they keep feeding the uniformed snakes so the rot doesn't set into entire Af-Pak.
Because if it did, that would be a defeat of sorts for US wouldn't it ?

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 04 Jan 2013 19:27

Virendra, I don't see how it would be a defeat for US if TSP spreads the rot to India and limits it there. In fact, tt would be a huge victory there. Not to mention that US can still be "engaged" by offering to mediate if all parties ask it to. And of course "South Asia experts" will get lots of grants and aid to pontificate, nd of course their side kicks from India and TSP will get appointments at Brookings or Heritage foundation King's college or wherever to endorse the "experts's" views.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 04 Jan 2013 21:32

Ramanaji,

I do not think Indian investments in Afghanistan for past 10 years are any useful.

1. They did not prevent any terror attacks against Indian interests in either Afghanistan or India proper.
2. They made Indian hands weak vis.a.vis Iran. Without Afghanistan need, Indo-Iran relationship would have been more beneficial to India, especially in energy security area.
3. There is no guarantee that Indian sensitivities will be protected if and when, god forbid, another IC814 to happen in future Talibani state.
4. Even without Indian involvement the Afghan problem will persist because in the absence of Kufrs, Muslims do a better job at killing themselves.

I wish India spent that billions of $ in buying and permanently sealing Nepal from Chinese influence. Imagine India offering few $b to the kings and make them join Indian union as a state with a-370

Any reaction from Maoists can be no different from current Internal problem.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 05 Jan 2013 06:31

Acharya wrote:
ramana wrote:
Anyway the point is India has to be firm to not allow the mess into India and let the Pakis sort it out themselves.

I see the end point as a new Pakiban sultanate emerging from the morass.
Sultanate cannot sustain in the modern world. Pak is in a no mans land and it will be held by the army alone.
Once the P Army is limited in resource and capability the country will also be limited in its capacity to do damage to the neighborhood. We can see the signs of the limit of the capability of Pakistan army and other institutions

Modern army cannot give the same sultanate islamic fervor and it is bound by international contraints

No, Islam majority country's armies are not bound by international constraints. Paki armies have never been tried for crimes against humanity. No such hulia's exist for the Talebs either. Almost all such "excesses" were onlee punished if internally the regime was overthrown by another external-manpasand internal Islamist. Islamic armies lead a charmed life until they meet their 72 - peacefully or otherwise.

When Islamic armies had their fastest expansion and success rate - they started out from very unfavourable resource constraints.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 05 Jan 2013 06:33

ramana ji,
I only think that Pakistan in its current pretended pseudo-democratic form may not exist, but that does not mean the essential jihadi core theme and ideology around which Pakistan was conceived, suffers no great transitional shock - as TalebPak becomes the real entity. This was the intended destiny for Pakistan by its creators.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 05 Jan 2013 07:00

brihaspati wrote:
Modern army cannot give the same sultanate islamic fervor and it is bound by international contraints

No, Islam majority country's armies are not bound by international constraints. Paki armies have never been tried for crimes against humanity. No such hulia's exist for the Talebs either. Almost all such "excesses" were onlee punished if internally the regime was overthrown by another external-manpasand internal Islamist. Islamic armies lead a charmed life until they meet their 72 - peacefully or otherwise.

When Islamic armies had their fastest expansion and success rate - they started out from very unfavourable resource constraints.

Give it a thought and think thru this.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 06 Jan 2013 07:44

Interview: Shaida M. Abdali, Afghanistan’s Ambassador to India

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 06 Jan 2013 07:48

Residual foreign presence will trigger war: Taliban
This is the next salvo, as expected. The Taliban are tightening the screws on the Americans a few turns each time. It will be a completely defeated USA by the time it all ends and Taliban gets reinstalled. Unlike the earlier claim by the mujahideen of having defeated the superpower USSR, we might agree with the Taliban claim of having defeated the remaining superpower this time.

The Taliban on Saturday warned of a prolonged war in Afghanistan if any foreign troops stay after the end of 2014, as Kabul and Washington prepare to discuss the ‘residual’ U.S. security presence.

“If America wants to leave a small or large number of its troops for whatever length of time then it means war and destruction will continue in the region for that same length,” said the Taliban in a statement.

“If Karzai and the Kabul regime agree with the presence of even a single American soldier then, just as presently, they shall also be responsible for all future hostilities, casualties and destruction,” it added. — AFP

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 06 Jan 2013 08:26

General Details Pentagon Tensions With Obama on Afghanistan

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 07 Jan 2013 22:00

As Af-Pak ->Fak-Ap
Nightwatch comments on the new Paki military green book and the recent LOC escalation

India-Pakistan: Indian and Pakistani troops clashed near the Line of Control in the northwestern border region of India's Jammu and Kashmir state on 6 January, leaving one Pakistani soldier dead and another wounded, according to a Pakistani military spokesman. According to the statement, Indian troops crossed into Pakistani territory and raided the Sawan Patra military post.

The Indian side of the story is that Pakistan Army artillery and other units began firing across the line of control to provide cover fire and support for an infiltration across the Line of Control into India's Jammu and Kashmir State by Pakistani-based Kashmiri militants in violation of the ceasefire agreement.

Comment: The Pakistan Army fired the first shots to support militant infiltration during the winter. India retaliated and Pakistan cried foul. India retaliated, apparently with some precision because the Pakistanis identified the military post that was attacked.

Pakistani intelligence - the Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate - is responsible for arranging infiltration missions into Indian Kashmir and for artillery support. ISID never seems to change. The Kashmir internal security problem is a law and order problem. The Pakistani government-backed insurgency in Indian Kashmir failed. The cost to India was enormous but some people in Pakistan still have not gotten the word.

Pakistan: A new Pakistan Army doctrinal handbook identifies, for the first time, that a priority Pakistan Army mission is suppression of internal threats to the government of Pakistan. In the so-called "green book" the internal threat has higher priority than the Indian threat, for the first time in Pakistan's history.

Comment: The Kashmir incident this weekend conveys that the new Pakistan Army concentration on internal threats does not signify reduced vigilance opposite and/or meddling in Indian Kashmir. On the other hand, this doctrinal shift represents the first time Pakistan Army planners have recognized that tribal uprisings in support of a fundamentalist Islamic theology pose a real and present danger to the constitutional order in Pakistan. As a result they now are a priority target for the Army.

Both Pakistani and Indian defense commentators have praised the strategic shift, assuming its authenticity of course. That is the key point. The Pakistan Army historically has resented and despised operations in support of civil authority unless the state were in peril. Thus it is not yet clear just what the new doctrine signifies.

For example one interpretation might be that the Pakistan Army considers the threat from Afghanistan to be more urgent than the threat from India. That might imply that the Pakistan Army would facilitate the departure of NATO forces so that Pakistan can reassert and protect its interests in Afghanistan.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 09 Jan 2013 09:55

US does not rule out removing all troops from Afghanistan
http://dawn.com/2013/01/09/us-does-not- ... ghanistan/

WASHINGTON: The Obama administration does not rule out a complete withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan after 2014, the White House said on Tuesday, just days before President Barack Obama is due to meet Afghan President Hamid Karzai.The comments by US Deputy National Security Adviser Ben Rhodes were the clearest signal yet that, despite initial recommendations by the top military commander in Afghanistan to keep as many as 15,000 troops in the country, Obama could opt to remove everyone, as happened in Iraq in 2011.Asked about consideration of a so-called zero-option once the Nato combat mission ends at the end of 2014, Rhodes said: “That would be an option that we would consider.”Rhodes made clear that a decision on post-2014 troop levels is not expected for months and will be made based on two US security objectives in Afghanistan — denying a safe haven to al Qaeda and ensuring Afghan forces are trained and equipped so that they, and not foreign forces, can secure the nation.“There are, of course, many different ways of accomplishing those objectives, some of which might involve US troops, some of which might not,” Rhodes said, briefing reporters to preview Karzai’s visit.In Iraq, Obama decided to pull out all US forces after failing in negotiations with the Iraqi government to secure immunity for any US troops who would remain behind.The Obama administration is also insisting on immunity for any US troops that remain in Afghanistan, and that unsettled question will figure in this week’s talks between Obama and Karzai and their aides.“As we know from our Iraq experience, if there are no authorities granted by the sovereign state, then there’s no room for a follow-on US military mission,” said Douglas Lute, special assistant to Obama for Afghanistan and Pakistan.Jeffrey Dressler, an Afghanistan expert at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War who favours keeping a larger presence in Afghanistan, questioned whether the White House comments might be part of a US bargaining strategy with Kabul.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 09 Jan 2013 10:45

^ I think US is doing the right thing by packing up and leaving this area. I hope that this will make Taliban more aggressive and focus next on the Islamic emirate of Europe.

Perhaps the region between Indus and Tigris needs to go thru many more rounds of Islamic rule to wash out the past karma.

The dhimmi Indians also need some cruel wake up calls. The more brutality they see, the more self-aware they become.

There will be a day when Pakistand will do something so stupid, india will be forced to respond irrespective of the napunsak leadership.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 09 Jan 2013 10:58

RamaY wrote:^ I think US is doing the right thing by packing up and leaving this area. I hope that this will make Taliban more aggressive and focus next on the Islamic emirate of Europe.

Normally, institutional memories are strong. US in Afghanistan is following exactly what US followed in Vietnam between c. 1969 and 1973.

RamaY, what makes you believe that the Taliban will next turn on Europe. They have no means to do so. IMHO, they have to take over Pakistan and get their hands on the strategic weapons. Pakistan had always claimed that what they possessed was an Islamic bomb. ZA Bhutto argued why the Muslim civilization (whatever that means) could not have the ultimate weapon when the Christian, Jewish and Hindu civilizations could have them. The Taliban, being much purer than the Pakistani 'Establishment', have the right to these weapons. Either the 'Establishment' transfers them peacefully and abdicates or the Islamic Talibani Emirate of Afghanistan (ITEA) will take over Pakistan peacefully because Islam, after all, is a religion of peace. They will then turn their attention further East hoping to fulfill what their ancestors did not do, that is grab it and rue it rather than merely plundering and converting.

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 09 Jan 2013 21:35

Can someone translate the Urdu script?. Is the guy being thrashed a Paki soilder?

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=483271508389584

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 09 Jan 2013 22:16

^ The video is titled "Taliban brutally kill a dirty ANA soldier"

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 10 Jan 2013 00:26

SSji,

It was a partial hope and partial extrapolation. The european nations are more advanced, well fed and have more wimmens (to men) ratio and have more wealth. So they are more "preferable" destinations for islam to expand.

I agree, Taliban (as defined in this scenario) will not have access to EU.

The attraction of clown-jewels is much more than the access to wimmen/wealth W2 for an asuric mindset as Taliban. Once having weapons they can get the wimmens and wealth quicker.

Is it a good strategy for a nation like india to remain poor, for it will not attract talipans? or is it a good strategy to invest in astras?