Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

[Yagnasri]

To expect the present PM (The soft spoken PM as per sinarios lingo) to have any guts to take any action against Pakiland from where he ran away to India is too much. He will do nothing. Army will fume for some time and they will not do anything. Some time I wonder how many politicos and chamchas we have with General ranks - The lack of response from Army leadership to this kind of incidents is beyound normal thing. The top leadership does not simply care for the for the life of men. We are now getting bad name for INC as it does not take any action. The lack of response by INC leadership slowly result in INC losing name slowly.

[Aditya_V]

It would be generous to call this a Carter administration , this is more like Ambi or Stalin agreements with Hitler.

come to think of it we are thinking like stalin before 1941 June thinking that peace agreements will appease Hitler.

we will soon have to face the consequences of this ridiculous policy towards Pakis.

[vijayk]

http://www.apherald.com/Politics/ViewAr ... ress-game-

Till sometime back, KCR was seen making a lot of effort to team up with congress and was literally ready to merge his party if separate Telangana was given but he has discovered that the congress has taken him lightly. It is heard that few surveys were undertaken and it is showing that TRS has lost that favoritism like before. The trend is more towards TDP and YSRCP so congress has understood joining hands with KCR will fetch no benefits. With this, it is heard that they are keeping KCR at a distance. It has to be seen what the TRS president’s next move will be.

Looks like it is slow and steady progress for Naidu

http://www.apherald.com/Politics/ViewAr ... ride-again

It is heard that he has been sending strong feelers about rejoining the TDP and also took the party’s support in terms of the recent all party meet and also the Telangana issue. According to few TDP leaders the main reason why Nagam came out of TDP was because of pure ego conflict and nothing more. If this reason is true then it is not a big deal if he wants to rejoin so Chandrababu will be more than happy to take him back. The time is approaching for 2014 elections so it is about time Nagam takes a decision if he wants to contest in the polls. Many political experts suggest that a ride with the ‘Cycle’ is the best solution for Nagam.

http://www.apherald.com/Politics/ViewAr ... -in-Ongole

There is a talk going on that the Ongole constituency will be having the noted film personality Vandemataram Srinivas contesting for the MLA seat. Though there is a wave of YSR Congress still going, this celebration and various other initiatives taken by TDP in the recent past is changing the tide.

http://www.apherald.com/Politics/ViewAr ... and-Centre

According to many analysts, the trend looks strong for Y S Jagan to form the government in Andhra Pradesh. If that happens then he will also become a crucial member to decide upon which party to support at the centre and establish a government which is supportive to him. At the same time, the total inclination is not towards Jagan or YSRCP. A latest inclusion has been that of Telugu Desam Party which has picked up speed in the last few months. Generally, it is the parties that pick up the favor of the voters in the last phase of election season which gains maximum victory.

[Sushupti]

We are confused — is the BJP for or against the values of modernity?
Jan 11, 2013, 12.00AM IST [ Rupa Sengupta ]

Having Atal Bihari Vajpayee around helped. More so when, as prime minister, he sidelined saffron hardliners, largely focussing on development, security, foreign policy shifts, India-Pakistan talks and Hindu-Muslim rapprochement on Ayodhya. A statesman in the Nehruvian mould, Vajpayee's effectiveness stemmed from keeping the sangh parivar at bay. On Gujarat 2002, he appeared utterly irresolute. But, broadly, the post-1999 Vajpayee-led BJP tried to pitch itself as a moderate right-of-centre outfit that could run a disparate coalition and keep an arrogant Congress on its toes. Post-Vajpayee, the script altered.

Ever since, the BJP can't seem to tell Nagpur where to get off — recall L K Advani's Jinnah episode.


http://m.timesofindia.com/home/opinion/ ... 973017.cms

[prahaar]

@Sushupti, the opinion article posted by you is a first rate buffoon's account. An example of how literacy is different from inculcating objectivity. The learned lady is spouting inane as well as insane arguments to make her point. It is complete BS to suggest a Nehruvian mould is a qualifier for modernity.

[Sushupti]

@Sushupti, the opinion article posted by you is a first rate buffoon's account. An example of how literacy is different from inculcating objectivity. The learned lady is spouting inane as well as insane arguments to make her point. It is complete BS to suggest a Nehruvian mould is a qualifier for modernity.

Sir what a communal Hindu pagan like me can do if this is the standard of desi MSM?.

[Yagnasri]

CBN is could not be stopped in Telangana area but KCR and his gangs. Italian gang is not keen on dividing AP it seems and even if AP is divided Hyd city may end up as union territory a solution which will take the wind out of TRS gang. TRS is having power as long as Delhi has not taken any find decision. But once it takes decision TRS finds it difficult to continue agitation as the fatigue factor, lack of public support, lack of organisational struture and KCRs own persons weaknesses destroy his party.

INC also have to finalize what to do with Jagan. He has no where to go except ending supporting UPA at Delhi but keeping him relevant in AP politics is not an option. While INC rewards regional suthraps it does not want them to become powerful in any state. Jagan and his father became too powerful and required to be cut to size. return of TDP and strong showing by it in any general election make Jagan weak as he can not command long term support and can not be in opposition for long with huge no of cases againt him. So he has to support INC with what ever he got. So INC may be looking for fews own seats in AP along with few won by Jagan in 2014. It may not repeat 33 out of 42 in 2014 but it may have some 20 this time which is ok for INC.

In the larger picture INC is not going to gain much any where else except in Karnataka. so loss of 15 seat in AP is bad thing for congress.

[vijayk]

^^ the question is if CON party can be pushed below 10...

[Yagnasri]

sounds difficult. We have state wide permutations and set vote banks for congress in many places. Division of votes among non cogress votes always benifited congress. State like Karnataka may contribute for more seats. There are some states wherein opposition is simply very weak and divided - like AP (but CBN is said to slowly picking up). There is no visible national anti congress waive - paid media may be supressing news of lot of peoples anger. So on ground nothing is visible. But 10 years of misrule can not be defended easily. They may not touch 150 also and end up second to BJP, but below 100 I do not see that.

[RamaY]

If YSJ associates with Congress, he will be dead politically. No one will vote for him. Right now he is getting support because, people think he is standing against the might of Sonia (note to people from S.TN: even if SG is not questioned on her birth, she is hated for her indifference towards Bharat and her corrupt sycophant congress).

[disha]

^^^ S Tn is suffering from cognitive dissonance.

[Klaus]

Is this the right thread for the upcoming State Elections of Tripura, Meghalaya and Manipur starting Feb 2013?

[Yagnasri]

ya sure

[Yagnasri]

If YSJ associates with Congress, he will be dead politically. No one will vote for him. Right now he is getting support because, people think he is standing against the might of Sonia (note to people from S.TN: even if SG is not questioned on her birth, she is hated for her indifference towards Bharat and her corrupt sycophant congress).

Already Jagan gang openly told that they will support Secular forces in Delhi (read INC). Jagan will be in the side of INC as EJ gang will ensure it. So seats won by Jagan gang are congress seats only. Only TDP is the real anti congress force in AP (BJP does not count as it may not contest/win any MP seats in AP.) TRS already proposed that it will merge their party with INC if T is given. So TRS is basically in INC pocket.

Hope TDP/CBN do well. But his support for T going to be very difficult to explan in non T areas and the net result is difficult to predict. But he is basically back politically and slowly gaining. Hope he does well and at least support NDA after 2014.

[Muppalla]

Narayana Rao garu, the issue of T seperation is not going to be a big headache for TDP. That is my reading. His folks on the otherside when he gave the "allow T" letter are campaigning with a developmental focus. The line they are taking is that "entire development of the regions will be continuously at stand still with no investment proposals if this issue is not resolved. If T formation is what happens then let it happen though each of them personally do not like." This message will have no problems in coastal region. If push comes to shove, I will bet that there will no big emotion in the coastal region when T is formed. It is the Rayalaseema region where there will be huge opposition and TDP's strategy is that Jagan is strong there and let him be relegated there and let him fight with T folks. MIM is taking a communal stance against T and they are proposing some thing like RayalaTelangana etc. TDP is out of this fight and it is slowly building its base in the non-hyd Muslims, non EJ SC castes, entire BCs, T-Reddys and offcource Kammas.

I really see AP as INC's waterloo irrespective of what they do the T issue. Jagan winning based on today's situation is not going to happen. I still thing that TDP will regain its base. The INC votes will be split between Jagan and INC. That itself will bring TDP near to power. If they give T or Hyd as some UT etc, that is their "Opening the locks of Ayodhya temple" moment and that will for sure end the misery of India.

[RamaY]

If there is a overt wave in 2014, it is for YSJ. If there is a silent wave in 2014, It is for CBN.

I will not be surprised if Congis will lose everything they have in the state.

[Sushupti]

Looks like D4 didn't get "Hafta" from Munda.

Guruji was against toppling govt: Munda

“Sarkar girane mein inside factors jyada involved the. (Internal factors played a major role in toppling my government),” Munda told The Telegraph in a tête-à-tête on the sidelines of a lunch he hosted at his Kanke Road residence for friends, supporters and the media today.

Munda, who not only looked relaxed in his trade-mark maroon jacket and kurta-pyjama suit, did not spell out the “inside factors”. But it was clear his jab was directed at senior leaders of the party, like Yashwant Sinha and Raghubar Das, who were quite sceptical of the BJP-JMM-Ajsu coalition government in the first place.

http://www.telegraphindia.com/1130112/j ... PGM5x0Tg44

[Sushupti]

मोदी को चुनावी कमान देने की तैयारी

नई दिल्ली, [प्रशांत मिश्र]। 2014 के लोकसभा चुनाव में नरेंद्र मोदी को केंद्रीय भूमिका में रखने पर अब सिर्फ मुहर लगना शेष है। गुजरात में तीसरी धमाकेदार जीत के बाद ब्रांड मोदी' को संघ और भाजपा दोनों ने स्वीकार लिया है। गुजरात के मुख्यमंत्री रहते हुए भी मोदी लोकसभा चुनाव की मुख्य धुरी होंगे। उन्हें केंद्रीय चुनाव संचालन समिति की कमान सौंपने की तैयारी कर ली गई है। जब कांग्रेस जयपुर में लोकसभा चुनाव को लेकर चिंतन करेगी तब भाजपा और संघ में 2014 के आम चुनाव में मोदी की भूमिका पर मंथन शुरू हो गया है।

संघ और भाजपा दोनों ही चाह रहे हैं कि राजग के मौजूदा स्वरूप पर कोई आंच भी न आए और ब्रांड मोदी का लाभ भी भाजपा को मिले। यह संकेत मिल रहे हैं कि मोदी को केंद्रीय चुनाव संचालन समिति की कमान देकर कार्यकर्ताओं को संदेश स्पष्ट दे दिया जाए। पार्टी 2014 को अपने लिए अब तक की सबसे बड़ी चुनौती के रूप में देख रही है। मोदी के आलोचक भी मानने लगे हैं कि मोदी को पृष्ठभूमि में रखकर 2014 की लड़ाई लड़ना समझदारी नहीं है। लिहाजा उन्हें ऐसी भूमिका दी जाए जहां से वह भाजपा का चेहरा दिखें। पार्टी मान रही है कि यदि इन परिस्थितियों का चुनावी लाभ न मिल पाया तो उसके लिए दिल्ली कम से कम एक दशक दूर हो जाएगी।

मोदी को भी शायद केंद्र में परोक्ष नेतृत्व का यह फार्मूला ज्यादा मुफीद लगेगा। यदि भाजपा का चुनावी पासा ठीक बैठा तो मोदी के गुजरात से केंद्र में आने का रास्ता खुद ब खुद साफ हो जाएगा। अगर मनमाफिक संख्या में सीटें न मिलीं तो भी ब्रांड मोदी पर कोई आंच नहीं आएगी। यह गौरतलब है कि राहुल गांधी को भावी प्रधानमंत्री के रूप में देख रही कांग्रेस ने भी फिलहाल उन्हें चुनाव संचालन समिति की कमान देने का फैसला किया है।

मोदी की केंद्रीय भूमिका को लेकर हो रहे मंथन का केंद्रबिंदु यह है कि गठबंधन न केवल बरकरार रहे, बल्कि चुनाव के बाद नए समर्थकों को जोड़ा भी जा सके। भाजपा का जोर उत्तर प्रदेश, गुजरात, असम, राजस्थान, दिल्ली, हिमाचल, उत्तराखंड, हरियाणा जैसे राज्यों में अपनी सीटें बढ़ाने पर है। मोदी के हालिया प्रदर्शन के बाद गुजरात में पार्टी को अपनी सीटें बढने की पूरी उम्मीदें हैं। पार्टी नेतृत्व का मानना है कि उत्तर प्रदेश में कम से कम 25 सीटें लानी होंगी। जबकि दिल्ली और उसके उत्तर के अन्य राज्यों से दो दर्जन सीटों से ज्यादा लानी होंगी। फिलहाल इन राज्यों की लगभग चार दर्जन सीटों में भाजपा के खाते में आधा दर्जन भी नहीं हैं। येद्दयुरप्पा की बगावत के बाद कर्नाटक से निराश भाजपा वहां भी मोदी के जरिये नुकसान को कम करने की कोशिश करेगी। ध्यान रहे कि येद्दयुरप्पा खुल कर मोदी की वकालत कर चुके हैं। गुजरात की जीत के साथ मोदी ने यह साबित कर दिया है कि उनके साथ सभी वर्ग का मतदाता है। सभी सर्वे यह भी दिखा रहे हैं कि युवा मतदाताओं में ब्रांड मोदी की धूम है। इंडिया इंक' ने भी सार्वजनिक रूप से यह स्वीकार किया है कि देश को मोदी जैसे नेता की जरूरत है।

पार्टी और संघ को इसका भी एहसास है कि कार्यकर्ताओं में उत्साह के लिए भी मोदी को सामने लाना जरूरी है। गौरतलब है कि मोदी को प्रधानमंत्री का उम्मीदवार घोषित करने का दबाव बढ़ रहा है। मोदी के जरिये पार्टी गठबंधन का दायरा बढ़ाने की भी कोशिश करेगी। मोदी के शपथ ग्रहण समारोह में अन्नाद्रमुक नेता जयललिता और इनेलो प्रमुख ओम प्रकाश चौटाला की मौजूदगी को लेकर काफी चर्चा रही है। कोशिश होगी कि पार्टी लोकसभा चुनाव में 200 सीटों के करीब पहुंचे।

http://www.jagran.com/news/national-bjp ... um=twitter

[Sushupti]

What a coincidence?. Just in time before BJP presidential election. Dilli-Billis don't like Gadakari.

I-T summons Nitin Gadkari

http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report_i- ... um=twitter

[ramana]

Sushupti, What does the Jagran story say?

Please for sake of others give synopsis.

[Sushupti]

^^

Central role for the Modi for the coming 2014 elections is mere formality.After thrid consecutive grand win in Gujrat both RSS & BJP have accepted the "Brand Modi". Modi will play central in 2014 elections while remaining CM of Gujarat.It has been decidec to put him in the lead role of central election coordination committee.

Both RSS & BJP wants to gain from "Brand Modi" without any damage to NDA. There is indication of giving clear message to grass root worker by appointing him cheif of central election coordination committe. Party considers 2014 as biggest challenge till date. Even Modis detractors have accepted that it would be foolish to fight 2014 by keeping him in background. Therefore, he should be given a role which shows the face of BJP.

Perhaps Modi too will like this indirect central role formula. If BJP dice lands on the right side his path to the centre will get automatically cleared. And if party doesn't return with enough seasts "Brand Modi " will remain intact.


Central point of discussion, regrading central role for Modi, is to keep not only NDA intact but bring more parties to NDA after elections.BJP's emphasis is on improving its performance in UP, Guj, Assam, Raj, Delhi HP UT, Haryana etc. BJP hopes to improve its performance after recent performance of MODi.

Both party and Sangh realize that to boost the morale of workers Modi should be brought to the front.

[shyamd]

Found this snippet in IE:

Wooing Vasan

The rumblings in the DMK may have an impact on the Tamil Nadu Congress. Some of emissaries of Chief Minister
J Jayalalithaa, such as Cho Ramaswamy, have called on Congress leader G K Vasan. They are trying to sell the line that Vasan, G K Moopanar’s son, will lose out if he stays on in the Congress since he gets little credit for the fact that the overwhelming majority of the cadres are with him. They claim that the DMK, weakened by factionalism, is unlikely to allot the Congress more than five seats in the 2014 parliamentary elections compared to the nine that was the Congress’s share in 2009. Jayalalithaa’s friends assure Vasan that if he were to form a regional party, the AIADMK would reserve 10 parliamentary seats for his party in the coming general election.

[member_20317]

That is some great news regarding Modi.

The new partners that the report talks of could be the deciding factor in pulling down kongis.


The targets regarding Delhi and UP will be fulfilled only if both the following happen:

1) Modi campaigns actively at both places. Esp. in Delhi where the nature of demographics is in favour of Kongis. And even if there is no real gain to be had.

2) Some cut-throat electoral strategy is developed. Esp. for UP where the old network is present just under the surface. Maya knows it that is why she is the one most apprehensive of Modi. Good thing about UP is that this dumb idiot father and son team have virtually stopped all new development plans. They are busy milking and distributing the spoils of the earlier ones that the earlier ones could not collect on. So that opens them up for all round attack. UP kind of state requires a lot of give and take, a lot of dirty dealings. So BJP has to stop pretending to be holier than thou. Nobody can change UP overnight so act with control instead of abandoning control. They have to know how to cut deals and distribute spoils.

[Muppalla]

The fight that is going on in BJP parivar is not about Modi having central role. He will have a very central role. The fight is about his powers and he is aspiring for total anhiliation with a full authority in election related decision making.

[ramana]

Its not like those opposing him have a stellar record!!!

[vijayk]

http://www.indiavotes.com/blog/2013/01/ ... look-like/

As the above table shows, BJP would win 22 seats, whereas Congress would win 4 seats. Of the 4 seats, Congress has edge of 0.3% in Patan, 0.6% in Dahod and 0.8% in Banaskantha. It has a very good lead of 12.8% in Sabarkantha. BJP has leads of less than 5% in Panchmahal, Anand, Amreli, Valsad, Kheda and Kutch.
So if BJP maintains its hold on 22 parliamentary constituencies that it is now leading and improves in Patan, Dahod and Banaskantha, it could end up winning 25 out of 26 seats in the state. However, if Congress maintains its hold on the four constituencies and improves its performance in Panchmahal, Anand, Amreli, Valsad, Kheda and Kutch, it could end up winning 10 constituencies in the state.

In the past we have seen that BJP could not repeat its assembly election performance in parliamentary election. In 2002, BJP had won 127 seats with 49.9% vote share in the state but in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections it could only win 14 seats with 47.9% vote share. In 2007 BJP won 117 seats with 49.1% vote share but in 2009 it could again win only 15 seats with 46.5% vote share. Many political pundits might cite this and argue that past trends clearly indicate that BJP does not perform as well in parliamentary election as it does in assembly election.
However one important point to be noticed here is the turnout percentage. In the assembly elections, the turnout was as high as 61.5% in 2002 and 59.8% in 2007 whereas in the parliamentary elections, it was as low as 45.2% in 2004 and 47.9% in 2009. In the Dec 2012 assembly elections, the turnout was 72.5%. This clearly shows that in a high turnout election, BJP tends to perform better in Gujarat.

[ramana]

So what to make of Jharakhand natak?

Why doesn't the BJP recommend dissloving the Assy?
But then Governor might not like to listen to BJP.
So President rule till INC-JMM tieup is created?

Even though the cabinet recommended dissolving the Jharkhand Assy., the Governor opted for President Rule as predicted above.

[devesh]

Jagan tying up with INC does not necessarily mean the end of him.
instead, he will become a satrap like Pawar.
the end result is that INC, YSRCP, and TDP will be the main contenders in AP.

to me, the trend is clear. people are confused and will remain confused.
and political results will reflect that confusion.
such experiments in regional satrapization always end in disaster.

think of what TDP could potentially become if the current environment continues.
they might try to adopt the plank of uber-regionalism. they will fail b/c the issue will not resonate, but they won't give up without a try.

Jagan, meanwhile, might become a dangerous thorn.
I think he has enough external forces backing him, even if the "Home of Christendom" objects to his rise.
the American angle cannot be ignored.

and INC will continue to have a foothold, no matter how much Jagan tries to poach, and how much TDP tries.

but it is important to get the devils under single umbrella. otherwise, confusion will continue.
they will not come under one umbrella unless the electoral calculations descend into shaky coalitions.
this is necessary, I think, both to piss the people off, and also to get the AIF/devils under one umbrella.

[Muppalla]

Devesh garu,

This first post article is on dot as far as INC is concerned in AP.

If both Thakrey's go in for a coalition along with BJP then INC's goose can be cooked inspite of INC's rising fortunes in Karnataka. Indications are that there will be an opposition coalition in Maha.

[Pratyush]

Jagan and INC can always enter into a an alliance. That in turn will free any day beat up the TDP. Unless then can launch an overt attack on both INC and Jagan, and convince the voters that their is not much of a difference between the INC and Jagan. Already Jagan has announced that he will support Sikular forces.

That being the case, the TDP will have to play a nuanced game and try not commit to an overt alliance with the BJP. Cause, working with the INC is not an option for a regional party.

[Pratyush]

When it comes to Maha, I will wait for the results of the next assembly elections. This is a state which re-elected INC / NCP, post 26/11. When they should have voted then out.

So expecting them to be vote differently this time is some thing the is too foolish to even contemplate.

[prahaar]

Based on my limited reading (of BRF and all the Gurus here) I have come to the following conclusions:
-Vision is something like a promise and local political organization is like a product store which delivers the product to the local level. A company may have a great vision but without products it will never make money or gain a market share.
-A political party with vision that matches the people's needs does not translate into seats without the local organization. IMHO, this is reason why INC wins the vote share and seat share that BJP can only dream about. BJP is simply missing or considered insignificant by the local population in many parts, INC is increasingly losing presence in many parts as well but not as rapidly as we believe (and also not permanently, even today INC got a health greater than 30% vote share in a place like Gujarat).

Now coming to the clamor for Modi, many believe he will make a big difference to BJP's performance based on the fact that he has great personal credibility. Without disagreeing with that fact, I would like to note that making a strong+deep+omnipresent party organization (starting from Panchayats->ZP->Municipality->Corporations->State->regions->national level) is not only important but essential. There is no short cut.

I believe, NM would be a great asset (in addition to becoming a public face of Hindutva + Development) as a party organization man. I do not know (due to lack of knowledge) if the backroom organization man + public persona roles can be with the same individual (due to conflicting needs + physical constraints like time). The Gujarat BJP that has withstood the massive GOI assault(s) is not due to Modi alone (as an individual) but due to the deep organization that he along with others have nurtured.

I believe, NM should focus on national party organization as soon as possible (since that does not involve declaring PM intentions) and if needed build up the party in next 4-5 years nationally. One needs to remember that paratrooper campaigners are seldom a game changer in absence of right local organization. Just dropping Modi in different parts of India will not work (HP is a glaring recent example).

I am a bigger fan of his organization skills than his public persona (although I admit the latter is more emotionally satisfying to see). The day BJP allows people to rise as freely as INC once did, it will become a juggernaut. Just look at INC profile in the freedom struggle gives an idea (if not for the transparent concrete ceiling at top, things would have looked very different).

[devesh]

That being the case, the TDP will have to play a nuanced game and try not commit to an overt alliance with the BJP. Cause, working with the INC is not an option for a regional party.

OK, if TDP "has to stay away" from overt support for BJP, it means that there is a staunch anti-BJP demographic in Andhra which used to vote for TDP, but will not vote if they support BJP. so what is that demographic? the muslims vote for MIM and INC. so, TDP need not worry about them. the SC's have a staunch following for INC and YSRCP. so they won't vote for TDP either. so what exactly is the TDP gaining from "not overtly committing" to BJP? in short, nothing. this is the usual too-clever-by-half sikular argument which makes no logical sense.

[RamaY]

^ It is actually the other way around.

TDP thinks there is some muslim constituency that votes for him and would go away if they overtly ally with BJP.

On the other hand they think there is NO constituency that definitely vote against TDP if they behave like other secular parties. More over they also think there is a Hindu secular constituency that might vote against TDP if they ally overtly with BJP.

[devesh]

RamaY ji, yes, those are the two sides of the same coin. both equally delusional and unrealistic.

in Andhra, BJP is a neutral entity pretty much. BJP's pro-T angle might hurt in the coastal areas, but the usual secular/communal angle fails to impress anyone. people don't see BJP that way.

[ramana]

I think Naidu is more worried about his commie supporters who might be induced to vote against TDP if he is pro-BJP.

And then the non- Ashraf Muslim voters who might vote for TDP in some areas where there is no Musilm candidate.

The Ashraf Muslim vote is already spoken for.

[vijayk]

http://www.firstpost.com/politics/how-t ... 89474.html
How the Congress is using cash transfer in UP

ccording to indications, the party is going to utilise the scheme to woo back the minority communities, especially the Muslims, in the state. The party has lost the community to the Samajwadi Party. However, it’s sensing its chance now as the Muslims are disenchanted with the state government for several reasons. The situation has created a vacuum which the Congress is aiming to cash in on.

File photo of Sonia Gandhi, Manmohan Singh launching the Aadhaar scheme in Uttar Pradesh. PTI
At a national conference on 12th Five Year Plan and Minorities held in Lucknow recently, the party dwelt at length on the condition of the Muslims and blamed the state government for failing to take the benefits of the central government schemes to the minorities.

“The niyat (intention) of Congress and the UPA government, especially Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and party president Sonia Gandhi, is good. They are keen on welfare of the poor, down trodden and specially the Muslims. But the state governments do not let the schemes reach the right beneficiaries. The bureaucracy is also to be blamed for depriving the needy from getting the benefit of these schemes,” said several Congress leaders present at the event.

And the solution, according to the Congress, is direct cash subsidy transfer. Incidentally, Amar Habibullah, son of the National Minorities Commission Chairman Wajahat Habibullah, has been made the in-charge of Banking Correspondents, who have been given targets to open zero balance accounts for the Cash Transfer Scheme.

Meanwhile, the party has been busy mobilising the community, which constitutes 25 percent of the electorate in the state. To win back the community, UPCC president Nirmal Khatri has constituted the Minority Welfare Review Cell. It’s now headed by Arshad Azmi, the former general secretary of All India Muslim Forum, founded by firebrand union leader Nihaluddin Ahmad – a known Muslim crowd puller. The AIMF merged with the Congress in 2008.

In order to disseminate the Congress message forcefully, the party has brought forward Mohammed Fazalurrahim Mujaddidi, a member of Planning Commission Steering Committee. He has compiled a set of about dozen books, which elaborate upon the schemes specifically meant for the minorities under the 12th Five Year Plan. Under the party’s strategy, the book originally written in English will be translated in various Indian languages, including Urdu.

[ShyamSP]

I think Naidu is more worried about his commie supporters who might be induced to vote against TDP if he is pro-BJP.

And then the non- Ashraf Muslim voters who might vote for TDP in some areas where there is no Musilm candidate.

The Ashraf Muslim vote is already spoken for.

That is correct. Last elections INC and TDP had 1-2% difference and 1% difference would have made TDP to gain 130+ instead <100 in 2009. Unless BJP and TDP join and go in a big way, lose pre-coalition is unnecessary distraction for TDP. There are 3 sticks against TDP (INC, TRS, YSRC) and dealing with them is quite handful till next elections.

http://www.firstpost.com/politics/is-th ... 86783.html
...
But what is significant is that the Congress party does not fancy its chances even in Chief Minister Kiran Kumar Reddy’s home district of Chittoor. And there are good reasons for that. Hardly any MLA from the district is on good terms with Kiran now.
...

In Chittoor, except two (KKR, the CM and one TDP MLA) entire Reddy MLAs left to YSRC. Only Minister Galla Aruna Kumari can win from Congress and even KKR is doubtful. South of Krishna River, Congress' maximum potential is may be 25 out of 92 from my own assessment. INC+YSRC+TRS will have to form coalition to form next government if TDP doesn't come close to 150.

Heroic release from jail before elections is big threat to TDP gaining majority ~155

[RamaY]

A scripted release of YSJ just before elections (6 months) will be a big loss for TDP.

- YSJ will be hailed as Mr. Klinn
- YSJ will be hailed as someone who stood against INC's adhistan

he will be new NTR.

[muraliravi]

Guys, tdp getting anywhere close to 25 seats out of 294 looks like a dream, forget winning back.

Here is a latest survey

http://m.timesofindia.com/city/hyderaba ... 040211.cms