Dead right about Kalyan. The man who could have been the King. New leaders rising up should learn from the bungling committed in his case. And no Kalyan is not as powerful. It would be fantastical to believe otherwise. You may as well believe in 72 hoories. But what has BJP got to loose. BJP in UP is already in the ditch. Cannot fall from there.

. Besides yes Kalyan has some voters spreadout but they are there under the radar. Kalyan is a good addition but not the key.
UP is such a varied state that nobody has the key to it. Not even the SP. What SP has, is a sendhmaar/chor darwaza attitude. Actually it should not even be looked upon as a state. UP is a left over inertia of the raj taken forward by the heirs of the Raj. The hindus of UP had banded together under Maya in exactly the manner they had banded together under BJP, and for pretty much the same reasons. Even while Maya tried her best to establish a working relationship with the business community for common good of all, her central purpose was to keep herself at the top. Actually between the three of SP, BJP and Maya, the Hindus treat all three as dispensable/usable. For that people should actually be thankful to an extent to Maya bhenji. But while her relevance is fast declining she is still powerful. Certainly more powerful then Kalyan. Again only because of inertia. She knows it, that is why is very paranoid about BJP. She just cannot afford to loose the so called upper caste to BJP.
There just is no way to get 40 in UP without a big wave. That is why I mentioned RLD. Right now with the wherewithal available only that much is doable. For bigger gains, something bigger needs to be strategized. Only then can the SP be countered. SP has a simpler plan of goonda raj that works because the people range between ignorant-corrupt. These guys are a kind of warlords trading allegiances for the little historic life that they know they have. If you want the muscle power to counter SP then you need to re-activate the good old network. Cause a few incidents of showdown with the target painted against the people. You remember the way Mullah-e-yam used to threaten the RJM movement leaders. He knows the only force that can beat him into shape is the hindutva force. Even Maya is not his match in the muscles department. Mullah-e-yam never had any competition from Kongis. So they both sit well together, alter egos, if you may.
But not getting 40 in UP should not even be an issue. There is little point in taking off the clothes when you have not reached the river. BJP has lost badly in these areas and a heck lot of work is required. Good thing is people want BJP to work for them. But nobody will support an indolent attitude. One consistent mistake that people make while dealing with UP is that they treat it as one entity. Well, UP behaves like one entity only with respect to sharing of spoils. Sharing of spoils was one of the two reasons that kept Maya and SP in power. Other factor, off course being Muslims. But these days Muslims are getting a disillusioned lot. They know they are being taken for a ride. A UP ka Yadav is drenched in politics and knows how to exploit an opportunity for himself without handing over anything to their gratuitous voters aka Muslims. SP walas realised the Muslims cannot now go to Maya since she is herself concentrating on the bulk hindu vote with a strong presence of so called upper caste in her kitty. Muslims kahan jayenge? Either they float new parties or they just sulk and go anti national. It was actually in this light that I suggested having a fit and proper Sangh muslim outfit. This may not yield immidiate benefits but it will do two things. One, it will assuage the hurt feeling that the poorer muslims have and the Musalmano ke thekedaars will be forced into the Owaisi mode further alienating them from the main stream. The lay muslim (poorer variety) will be forced to choose either way which means that the committed vote bank becomes vicious but smaller. This kind of mechanics can be started right now and will be good for cutting losses on difficult seats. Then secondly you have a longer term opportunity of actually turning these UP muslims into a fitter model. What people do not acknowledge is that immediately after partition the most vicious kind of muslims changed boats. The muslims of UP while still conservative are not exactly of the same kind that were there before partition. This ideally should have been treated as an opportunity right after partition. Hindus and Muslims do good business in these parts. Each with its own strongholds. Second, the longer term goal will turn UP muslims into a more confident lot that is less in the bag of SP types.
But then the whole of the muslim population needs to be treated as 3/4 different blocks each a part of their respective situ and muslims remaining calm should be looked upon as an excercise in loss management. No man, no ideology, no confidence building measure, no government can turn overnight (in civilizational terms) the distrust of last 1000 years. So such a fantastical goal should not even be tried. But some tentative and incremental movement is necessary. One smaller but ideological problem with BJP was that they allowed themselves to be treated as a Kongi equivalent. Kongis treated all muslims alike. How can anybody in his right mind club a Ghaziabadi or Meerut muslim with urban property and urban aspirations under his belt in the same bracket as the poorer muslims elsewhere in UP. Unlike Kongis, BJP should have a blow cold attitude where muslims are willing to cooperate and a blow hot attitude where they are not. Polarisation is a fact. Starting from that fact there is only to be gained either way. You can loose a voter but how do you loose somebody who is not your voter.
But I would suggest you take your feedback from more then one place. I know about deal making. My knowledge of ground level politics is limited to my immediate surroundings and is at times anecdotal or logical without being empirical.